Juan Soto Rumors: Saturday
Trade winds are swirling around Juan Soto, as it still isn’t clear if the Nationals will deal the superstar outfielder prior to Tuesday’s 5pm CT trade deadline. The market continues to change on an hourly basis based on other deals, and certainly based on countless private discussions happening between front office executives around baseball, and yet Soto (MLBTR’s top trade candidate of deadline season) looms over everything. Certainly, some clubs will want to explore all possibility of acquiring Soto, yet waiting too long could leave that team empty-handed for other trade options if Soto goes elsewhere.
The Padres are widely seen as one of the top contenders to land Soto, and are apparently open to surrendering the type of huge prospect package it will take to get Washington’s attention. As per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the Padres are “willing to discuss” such names as C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassell III, and Adrian Morejon with the Nationals. All three are or have been staples of top-100 prospect lists for the last few years, though Morejon has “graduated” from most prospect lists due to his MLB experience, and MLB Pipeline also removed Abrams from their list due to his 43 big league games played earlier this season.
Since the Nationals are known to be targeting younger, controllable players either already in the majors or on the cusp of their big league debuts, the Padres’ trio would seem to check those boxes. That said, it is quite likely that the Nats would want even more from the top tier of San Diego’s farm system (or from the active roster) in order to part with Soto, and the Padres could possibly have to up their offer in order to outbid other suitors.
For instance, the Cardinals also have a stockpile of young talent, and have also been mentioned as one of the favorites to land Soto. Dylan Carlson is a name on Washington’s radar, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Nats “are fond of” the outfielder.
Carlson is only 23 and has already made a mark in the Show, delivering above-average production at the plate and strong defense (as both a center fielder and right fielder). The Nationals could be eyeing Carlson as their next outfield cornerstone, as the team would already be fairly certain that he could contribute right away, whereas players like Abrams, Hassell, or Morejon are still unproven at the MLB level.
On paper, the Cardinals would seemingly have the depth to move Carlson as part of a Soto deal, yet that would leave the Cards without a reliable center fielder. Harrison Bader is still on the 10-day injured list due to plantar fasciitis, and a setback will extend his stint for at least another few weeks, manager Oliver Marmol told Goold and other reporters. Bader won’t even be out of a protective right boot for another week or two, so while Carlson has capably filled in up the middle, St. Louis could also have to pivot to landing a center fielder in another deal if Carlson was moved. A makeshift combo of Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman in center, for instance, wouldn’t be an ideal option for a would-be contender.
As mentioned, other trades can drastically change the situation for multiple teams, and it appears as though two other potential Soto suitors are no longer involved. The Rays would’ve been something of an eyebrow-raising team to land Soto, yet the Nationals’ demands were “beyond their tolerance,” Joel Sherman of The New York Post writes. As such, the Rays eschewed the blockbuster route and instead landed David Peralta from the Diamondbacks earlier today. Yesterday’s acquisition of Luis Castillo would also seemingly take the Mariners out of the running for Soto, as Seattle dealt away a sizeable chunk of its prospect capital to obtain Castillo from the Reds.
Padres Notes: Payroll, Campusano, Prospects
The Padres were relatively quiet during the pre-lockout portion of the offseason, at least by A.J. Preller’s usual aggressive standards. The club’s trade of Adam Frazier to the Mariners stands as San Diego’s biggest move of the winter, and that deal was surely motivated at least in part by the $7.2MM Frazier is projected to earn in salary arbitration.
Though the next collective bargaining agreement could change the luxury tax rules, for now the Padres’ hefty salary commitments (roughly $214.7MM for 2022, as per Roster Resource) continues to influence the front office’s activities. The Padres already exceeded the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021, and would face a repeater penalty of a 30% surcharge on the overage if they surpassed whatever the threshold is in 2022. It isn’t clear what San Diego’s salary ceiling might actually be, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (multiple links) notes that another “major hike” would require owner Peter Seidler to get a green light from the franchise’s minority owners.
As such, the Padres’ spending will probably be limited to some extent, as Lin has “a hard time seeing the Padres taking on another contract approaching nine figures” while the contracts of Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers are still on San Diego’s payroll. Both Hosmer and Myers have been mentioned in trade rumors for well over a year, as the Friars have looked for creative ways of unloading either player’s hefty salary. Hosmer is the more expensive of the duo, owed $59MM through the 2025 season while Myers is owed $21MM in 2022 ($20MM in salary and a $1MM buyout of a $20MM club option for 2023).
As Lin simply puts it, “there are a lot of moving parts to this offseason.” Getting at least one of Hosmer or Myers off the books could unlock a lot of possibilities for the Padres, who have already been linked to such notable free agents as Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant. While this interest could have just been due diligence, it does indicate that San Diego is at least checking in to see what it would to add another pricey, top-tier name to the roster.
There has been much speculation that the Padres could try to trade Hosmer or Myers by including a top prospect in the deal, as a rebuilding team with payroll space might be willing to eat some salary in order to essentially buy a blue chip minor leaguer. The Padres discussed Hosmer with the Rangers and Cubs at the trade deadline, with Robert Hassell III reportedly part of the negotiations with Texas, and Lin writes that catching prospect Luis Campusano was part of the Hosmer talks with Chicago.
The catch of such a trade, however, is that while the Padres would be lightening their salary load, they would also be losing a controllable young player that is all the more valuable to a team with such a luxury tax burden. The club has already dipped into its prospect depth for other trades, to the point that Lin reports that rival teams now focus their asks only on San Diego’s top minor leaguers, with Hassell and CJ Abrams receiving most of the attention. With this in mind, Lin is doubtful if the Padres would deal any of their best prospects, or the likes of Trent Grisham or Jake Cronenworth on the MLB roster.
Padres Reportedly Hoping To Include Eric Hosmer In Potential Joey Gallo Trade
It’s no secret the Padres have been interested in Rangers star Joey Gallo for at least the past few weeks. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News sheds some light on the teams’ conversations, reporting that San Diego has inquired about Texas’ willingness to acquire Eric Hosmer as part of the deal. If Texas were willing to take on some of Hosmer’s contract, the Friars could potentially make top outfield prospect Robert Hassell III available, according to Grant.
Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic reported earlier this week that the Padres were discussing potential Hosmer trades. The goal, of course, would be to clear some of the first baseman’s remaining contract from the books. Hosmer signed an eight-year, $144MM deal during the 2017-18 offseason. He’s playing this season on a $20MM salary (of which around $7.2MM remains through the end of the year), and he’ll make the same amount next season. He’ll make $13MM each season from 2023-25, unless he triggers an opt-out clause after the 2022 campaign.
Rosenthal and Lin reported that San Diego currently sits a couple million dollars north of the $210MM luxury tax threshold. While ownership is reportedly willing to exceed that mark, the Padres have also explored ways to duck back underneath, with a potential Hosmer deal part of that equation.
Unsurprisingly, Grant writes that the Friars would have to include some amount of cash to facilitate a swap involving Hosmer and Gallo. Hosmer’s hitting an average .265/.329/.378 through 363 plate appearances this season, hardly enough to hold much appeal to other teams given his significant price tag.
The Rangers’ long-term books are relatively open, which could make Texas more receptive to taking on some of Hosmer’s contract in order to add one of the game’s most dynamic prospects to the farm system. Hassell was the eighth overall pick in last year’s draft, and he’s hitting .307/.403/.455 across 325 plate appearances in Low-A this season. Baseball America ranked the 19-year-old the game’s #50 overall prospect in their midseason top 100 update.
Of course, doing so would require parting with Gallo, who is hitting a fantastic .223/.379/.490 with 25 home runs through 388 trips to the plate this year. With Gallo only controllable through 2022 and Texas looking unlikely to contend as soon as next season, he’s a sensible trade candidate. It doesn’t seem a lock he’ll be moved, as Texas has attempted to broker an extension with the slugger. However, Grant writes the sides have apparently “made little in the way of progress” on a long-term deal in recent days.
Failure to work out an extension wouldn’t make a Gallo trade a foregone conclusion, but it would make a deal seem likely. In addition to the Padres, the Yankees and Blue Jays have previously been tied to Gallo, and Grant adds that the Braves have “inquired” about his availability as well.
Gallo’s athletic enough to handle the outfield or first base, broadening his appeal to potential suitors. If a deal involving Hosmer, cash and prospects sent Gallo to San Diego, the two-time All-Star would likely step in as the Friars regular first baseman. Atlanta already has franchise icon Freddie Freeman entrenched at first and is surely looking at Gallo as a potential outfield option.
Padres, First-Rounder Robert Hassell III Agree To Deal
On a day loaded with first-round signings, the Padres have become the latest team to reach a deal with their top pick. The Padres announced that they’ve come to terms with outfielder Robert Hassell III, the eighth overall selection in this year’s draft. Hassell will earn $4.3MM, down from the $5,176,900 slot value of his pick, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
The 18-year-old Hassell committed to Vanderbilt before the draft, but the Padres managed to stop the Commodores from landing a highly promising prospect. MLB.com, FanGraphs, Baseball America, ESPN.com and The Athletic all ranked Hassell in the draft’s top 20 prospects entering the proceedings. Nobody was more bullish than ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, who ranked Hassell sixth of those available, wrote that he may “have the best hit tool in the prep class” and noted that he has drawn comparisons to high-end Braves outfield prospect Drew Waters.