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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Prospect Notes: Hernandez, Sheffield, Senzel, Bichette, Vlad Jr., Luzardo

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Here’s the latest on some prospects of note from around the game:

  • The Red Sox brought up top pitching prospect Darwinzon Hernandez for his first taste of the majors, with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reporting the move. Hernandez, a 22-year-old from Venezuela, still needs to iron out his command but has shown some impressive swing-and-miss capabilities. It was on display tonight, as he allowed five baserunners but also racked up four strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings in relief.
  • Left-handed pitching prospect Justus Sheffield will join the Mariners on Friday for his first action with his new club, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports on Twitter. He’s expected to piggyback with Yusei Kikuchi for a start; it’s possible he’ll be dropped back to Triple-A thereafter, though that’s not yet clear. While he already has 13 days of MLB service on his odometer, Sheffield won’t be able to reach a full year of service even if he stakes a permanent claim to a big-league roster spot. Sheffield hasn’t been himself thus far at Triple-A, carrying an 11:14 K/BB ratio through 18 1/3 innings.
  • It’s possible the Reds will soon welcome top prospect Nick Senzel to the majors. As Fletcher Page of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports, Senzel is back in the lineup at Triple-A after recovering from a sprained ankle. There’s no guarantee that he’ll be promoted in the near-term, but the organization doesn’t have much cause to hesitate at this point. Senzel can no longer achieve a full year of MLB service in 2019; the club is sitting at five games under .500 and can’t wait long to make its move. Once Senzel gets his timing down and gets comfortable in the outfield — he’s lined up in center field tonight for Louisville — he’ll likely be called up.
  • The Blue Jays got some unwelcome news on exciting infield prospect Bo Bichette. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported on Twitter that Bichette had suffered a broken hand. As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets, the fracture was to the second metacarpal of his left hand. Widely considered one of the game’s very best prospects, Bichette will now need to get back to health before he can begin pressing for a major-league promotion. Meanwhile, anticipation grows that teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will soon get the call; Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs tweets that some around the game anticipate it’ll come this week.
  • Top Athletics prospect Jesus Luzardo is beginning to work back toward the hill, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports (Twitter links). He’s moving from 75 feet to 90 feet tomorrow, so it’s still rather early in his progression back from shoulder soreness. Slusser estimates that it could take four to six weeks before the prized southpaw could be ready for game action. In all likelihood, he won’t be seen as a candidate for a MLB promotion until he has at least a few Triple-A starts under his belt and the club feels confident there aren’t any lingering issues with the joint.

AL East Notes: Snell, Pedroia, Jays, Vlad Jr.

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The latest from around the AL East…

  • Blake Snell continues to be on pace for a quick return from the 10-day IL, as the Cy Young Award winner told reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that he felt good following a bullpen session on Saturday.  A fractured toe sent Snell to the injured list last week, though the southpaw could potentially be pitch on Wednesday, his first eligible day to be activated.  Since the Rays have an off-day on Thursday, however, the team could also wait until Friday to activate Snell, just to make sure the ace is entirely recovered and ready to go.  More details could be known on Monday, as manager Kevin Cash said Snell could throw another bullpen that day.
  • Dustin Pedroia is also hopeful of a minimum IL stint as he recovers from his latest knee problem, telling media (including Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald) that his injury was “just a weird freak thing” rather than a more serious setback.  The Red Sox second baseman explained that his cleat caught in the dirt while he was swinging during Wednesday’s game, leading to an ominous-sounding popping feeling in his knee when it failed to turn along with the rest of his body.  Given that knee injuries have limited to Pedroia to just nine games since the start of the 2018 season, he admitted that the pop “more kind of scared me than anything….We’re going to let it calm down for a few days and it should be all right. It just twisted the wrong way.”  Given Pedroia’s recent injury history, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Sox wait beyond the 10-day minimum to activate him from the IL.  In the opinion of Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, the team should give Pedroia more minor league rehab time before his return, as Pedroia had only a four-day stay in the minors during his first rehab stint this season and looked shaky at the plate once he reached Boston’s MLB roster.
  • Speculation continues to swirl over when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be promoted to the Blue Jays’ roster, now that more than enough days have elapsed on the service-time calendar for the Jays to gain an extra year of control over the star prospect.  Guerrero was slowed by an oblique injury suffered during Spring Training, though he hasn’t looked any worse for wear in his return to the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons, posting a whopping 1.324 OPS over his first 20 plate appearances.  The Jays would like to see Guerrero play in three consecutive games as part of his recovery process, though as MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm notes, this has yet to happen due to multiple rainouts on Buffalo’s schedule.  Assuming the Bisons get some good weather on their four-game series in Syracuse this week, Chisholm speculates that April 26 would seem to be the earliest potential date for Guerrero’s Toronto debut, when the Blue Jays begin a series against the Athletics at Rogers Centre.

Blue Jays Notes: Roster Moves, Pitching Health, Prospects

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While there’s not much hope of the Blue Jays contending in 2019, that doesn’t mean it’ll be a quiet season. There has been some early-season roster maneuvering already in Toronto and more could ensue in the course of the campaign.

The latest:

  • With Alen Hanson and Socrates Brito reporting for duty, the Jays have a pair of new position players to work into the mix. Whether either or both have staying power remains to be seen, but the out-of-options players would need to be exposed to waivers if they’re not held on the active roster. To create space, the Jays optioned back outfielder Anthony Alford (who’s evidently not yet in line for a real look at the majors) and hurler Sean Reid-Foley. Lefty Thomas Pannone is jumping into the rotation vacancy, though he may ultimately just be keeping that spot warm.
  • The Toronto pitching staff will at some point feature bounceback candidate Clay Buchholz. As MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm reports (links to Twitter), he’s one of several hurlers on the mend. Buchholz has already built up to sixty pitches and may be ready for the majors in the next ten days or so. Relievers Ryan Tepera and Ryan Borucki are also working back from injuries; the former seems to be on Buchholz’s timeline while the latter could return by the end of April. Meanwhile, David Phelps has resumed throwing as he tries to work back from Tommy John surgery. His timeline is not apparent at present.
  • Much of the intrigue this year will come from the young talent trying to force its way onto the MLB roster. No player has more hype than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., though he’s only one of several top prospects with obvious ability and intriguing MLB bloodlines. Vladito is also still working back from an oblique injury. He’s set to launch a rehab assignment this evening, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets, with a Class A stop to open the season.
  • The possibility of an early (even pre-MLB) extension for Guerrero or other top Jays prospects seems interesting. GM Ross Atkins discussed that possibility recently, as Emily Sadler of Sportsnet.ca writes, though he didn’t really tip his hand on the likelihood of such a deal. If anything, he seemed to downplay such a scenario (at least in the immediate term). “It happens with a lot of discussion, a lot of interaction, a lot of back-and-forth,” said Atkins of extensions for younger players, “and what’s important to a player and what’s important to an organization has to line up and those risks are very different.” Regardless of contract possibilities, the Jays are still preparing to face multiple near-term promotion questions. On that issue, Atkins struck much the same tone he has previously, saying: “We want to have the most well-rounded and complete player as possible, but we’re not going to wait for that. We’re going to do the best of our ability to balance that.”

Injury Notes: Wendle, Blue Jays, Braves

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The Rays announced Monday that they’ve placed second baseman Joey Wendle on the 10-day injured list due to a strained left hamstring and recalled Christian Arroyo from Triple-A Durham in his place. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, who first reported the moves, tweets that Wendle has a “moderate” strain that the player himself described as “not too, too bad.” Wendle won’t know how long he’s going to be shelved until he tests the injured leg in a few days’ time, though. The 28-year-old Wendle finished fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2018 after hitting .300/.354/.435 with seven homers, 33 doubles, six triples and 16 stolen bases. The Tampa Bay infield has plenty of depth between Brandon Lowe, Daniel Robertson and the newly recalled Arroyo, though Wendle was quietly one of the team’s better all-around players in 2018.

A bit more from the division…

  • The Blue Jays announced that they’ve put lefty Clayton Richard on the 10-day IL due to a stress reaction in his left knee. In a corresponding move, right-hander Sean Reid-Foley has been recalled from Triple-A and will start tonight’s game for Toronto. The Jays didn’t provide a timeline for Richard’s return, but a stress reaction has the potential to keep him sidelined for a substantial period. In Reid-Foley, Toronto will be getting another look at one of its more promising young arms; the 23-year-old was the team’s second-round pick back in 2014 and pitched to a combined 3.26 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 129 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season.
  • Beyond that move, the Jays revealed a wide-ranging series of medical updates Monday afternoon. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. began taking some at-bats in extended Spring Training games this weekend, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. He’ll still need to get back into his routine at third base and play in some rehab games before he emerges as an option at the MLB level. TSN’s Scott Mitchell tweets that Clay Buchholz will throw tomorrow and could start for Triple-A Buffalo on April 7, which signals that the veteran righty is on track to join his new club sooner rather than later. Ryan Tepera and Ryan Borucki are throwing ’pen sessions, meanwhile, and could return by month’s end. Bud Norris’ timeline is less concrete, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Norris is still throwing in the 90-91 mph range — well south of his usual mid-90s heat. He did get a late start by signing in mid-March, so he’ll continue to build up arm strength without a set return date in focus just yet.
  • David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that the Braves plan to active southpaw A.J. Minter on Thursday — the first day he’s eligible. (Minter’s IL stint was backdated the maximum three days at the start of the season.) Mike Foltynewicz could join the rotation as soon as April 14 after making a pair of rehab outings, O’Brien adds. Right-hander Darren O’Day, unfortunately, is shutting down for a “couple weeks” due to ongoing forearm issues. Given that update, it seems as though it’ll be tough for the veteran O’Day to be ready before month’s end. O’Day missed the majority of the 2018 season due to a hyperextended elbow.

Blue Jays Reassign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Minors Camp

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The Blue Jays have reassigned third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to minor-league camp, the club announced and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet was among those to cover (via Twitter). That news brings an official end to the MLB camp experience of baseball’s best hitting prospect.

Guerrero, 19, had already likely wrapped up his spring work owing to the intervention of a recent oblique injury. That nixed any remaining chance that he’d open the season on the active MLB roster — an opportunity that likely wasn’t available anyway, given the front office’s established position on his readiness.

Toronto president Mark Shapiro recently discussed things further, as Nicholson-Smith reported. The club would like to see a “light bulb going off” for the exceptionally talented youngster, who’s expected to be a franchise centerpiece for years to come.

Though he didn’t express any concern with Guerrero’s work ethic, conditioning, or dedication, Shapiro did discuss a need for him (and other young players) to learn how to “live your life with intent.” It’s understandable that the Jays would like Guerrero to seize his full potential with a committed “intent to get better,” though a cynic might be inclined to turn the tables on the front office’s own intentions here. There’s ample reason to believe that Guerrero would be a high-quality major leaguer right now, even if he’s not a fully developed all-around player. And it’s at least fair to question whether his skills and habits will be honed faster in Buffalo rather than in Toronto.

There was one other aspect of Shapiro’s commentary that seems worthy of further attention. The veteran executive said:

“The reality is there’s 50 decisions throughout the day that you can control. If you start to control 38 or 40 of those 50 decisions every day, you’re going to make decisions for Ross (Atkins). Ross isn’t going to have to make them. What you’re ultimately hoping to do is hand the development over to the player.”

We’re all accustomed to hearing pretext for service-time-driven decisions. Some of it has some grounding in reality. Shapiro’s views on players owning their own careers surely have some merit and grounding in good intentions. Vlad Jr. can surely improve his glovework and baserunning as well. But it seems awfully disingenuous to suggest that off-field dedication by a player can “make decisions” for a front office even as teams decline even to acknowledge the often-dispositive influence of long-term player control and financial considerations in promotional decisions.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Suffers Oblique Strain

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Prized Blue Jays prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has suffered a Grade 1 left oblique strain, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports. The team estimates Guerrero will need three weeks to recover, Davidi adds.

The injury to Guerrero officially takes him out of the running to open the season in Toronto, though he wouldn’t have stood much chance to crack its roster even if he remained healthy. Not only will the Blue Jays gain an extra season of control over Guerrero by keeping the 19-year-old in the minors until mid-April, but general manager Ross Atkins indicated last month that the big-bodied third baseman’s not yet suited for a major league promotion. Since then, Guerrero has batted a meager .211/.250/.316 in 19 spring at-bats.

Despite his struggles over a small sample of exhibition plate appearances, Guerrero’s an all-world hitter who’s widely regarded as the game’s best prospect. As such, few took Atkins’ comments at face value, instead believing Toronto would demote him to manipulate the player’s service time. It’s now a moot point in light of the injury, though, as Davidi notes Guerrero would have been ticketed for a season-opening rehab assignment anyway. The hope now is that the injury won’t linger beyond the team’s estimated timeline, as is often the case with oblique issues.

Regardless of whether Guerrero’s back within the three-week window, he’ll see more time at Triple-A Buffalo before earning his first call-up to the majors this season. Guerrero garnered his first Triple-A experience late last year and slashed a phenomenal .336/.414/.564 (175 wRC+) with six home runs and more walks (15) than strikeouts (10) over 128 PAs, further cementing himself as an elite young player.

Service Time Perspectives: Vlad, Bryant, Senzel

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With camp in full swing, we’re watching some of the game’s very best prospects share the field with existing big leaguers. That creates opportunity both for excitement at the youngsters’ eventual regular-season ascent and consternation at the anticipated timing thereof. As teams near decision points on another crop of players, with accusations of service-time manipulation already lurking, let’s take a look at some interesting recent comments on prospect promotion timing:

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Citing the organization’s focus on “development,” Atkins says of Guerrero: “I just don’t see him as a major league player.” While the consensus top prospect in baseball “has accomplished everything he can accomplish as an offensive player” in the minors, Atkins says, there’s evidently more he needs to work on before he’s to be trusted with a big league job. That includes “the physical aspect, the baserunning, the defense,” per the GM. (That first point represents a nod at Guerrero’s shape, John Lott of The Athletic suggests on Twitter.) The Toronto organization wants Guerrero to “start[] with an incredible foundation” once he reaches the majors so that it can “tap into all of that potential,” says Atkins. Some projection systems already regard Guerrero as one of the most capable hitters on the planet, even without having seen him against MLB pitching, so there’s no question of his readiness in that regard. The Jays, though, purport to believe that the other aspects of his game can benefit more from further game action at the Triple-A level.
  • There are certainly those who’d take a skeptical view of the true motivations where Guerrero and others are concerned. Cubs star Kris Bryant is among them, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Bryant believes the annual top-prospect hold-back represents an effort by teams to exploit “a loophole in the system.” His own promotion timeline more or less represents the most outwardly obvious service-time manipulation imaginable: Bryant was a polished, well-rounded college player who had laid waste to the upper minors and Cactus League pitching and was called upon as soon as the team secured the ability to control him for a full additional season. “It’s funny how obvious it can be,” said Bryant. “But now I can look back on it and just laugh about it because I was told to work on my defense too and I think I got three groundballs in those games that I played,” he added. The Chicago third baseman says that solving the issue will require “compromise” and “a logical solution,” noting that changes to free agent outcomes also serve to highlight the concerns for players.
  • Another much-hyped young player, top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, also has adopted a realistic (bordering on jaded) perspective as he nears his debut. He tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s skeptical whether he really has a chance to head north out of camp with the MLB club. “Do I believe it? No,” he said of the Reds’stated intention to carry their best roster out of the gate without reference to service time. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.” The Reds do have cover in this case, as Senzel’s 2018 season was cut short by injury and he’s transitioning to a new position, though he could put any questions to rest over the next few weeks. It’s particularly frustrating in Senzel’s case, Rosencrans notes, because he was on track to receive a late-2018 call-up before suffering a broken index finger that cost him the second half of last year.

AL Notes: Vlad Jr., Bogaerts, Twins, Castellanos

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It has long seemed obvious that the Blue Jays would prefer to hold top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at Triple-A to open the 2019 season. After all, the team decided not to call him up late last season and can push back his potential free agency by one season if they keep him down for at least a brief stretch to begin the new campaign. GM Ross Atkins declined yesterday to provide any kind of hint as to the anticipated timing, as Keegan Matheson of the Score tweets, though he did so in a manner that seemingly suggests the club is indeed preparing to hold off on a call-up. “There’s no firm timeline on when [Guerrero] arrives or when he is playing in Toronto for the first time,” said Atkins, “but we want to make sure he’s the best possible third baseman and the best possible hitter he can be.”

Let’s take a look at some other notes from the American League …

  • The Red Sox and shortstop Xander Bogaerts reportedly failed to gain traction in extension talks earlier this winter. Perhaps it’s still possible, though, that the pending free agent could line up with the organization on a new deal. As John Tomase of WEEI.com writes, Bogaerts acknowledged that the slow-developing free agent market provides cause for him to consider extension scenarios — “you obviously have to think about that,” he said — though he also did not exactly hint that he’s particularly inclined to forego the risks and upside of the open market. The 26-year-old called this winter’s market developments “weird.” As for the possibility of a future in Boston, he ultimately would say only that he likes playing with the team and that “we’ll see what happens.”
  • While the Twins have looked into extensions with multiple young players, and recently locked up both Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, all is quiet on that front at this point, per LaVelle E. Neal III off the Star Tribune (via Twitter). Players such as outfielder Eddie Rosario and righty Jose Berrios would seem to represent highly appealing targets, though both also have added leverage due to their strong 2018 seasons.
  • The Tigers, meanwhile, do not appear to have anything in the works with outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, who seems to be more of a mid-season trade candidate than extension candidate. Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press writes that skipper Ron Gardenhire would prefer Castellanos stick around. He just might get his wish, at least for the first half of the season, as it still seems there’s insufficient market interest in the defensively challenged slugger to pique the Detroit organization’s interest.

Quick Hits: Prospects, Grandal, Twins, Davis, A’s

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sits atop Baseball America’s annual preseason edition of its Top 100 Prospect rankings.  Guerrero had already moved into the #1 position in BA’s midseason rankings last summer after Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuna (the top two players in last spring’s top 100) gained enough big league playing time to lose their prospect status.  Guerrero is expected to make his long-awaited debut in the Blue Jays’ lineup at some point early in the 2019 season.  Fernando Tatis Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Wander Franco, and Forrest Whitley round out the top five.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • Before signing a one-year deal with the Brewers worth $18.25MM in guaranteed money, Yasmani Grandal received multi-year offers from the Angels, Twins, and White Sox, The Athletic’s Robert Murray reports (subscription required).  These offers were in addition to the four-year deal reportedly floated by the Mets for Grandal, which he turned down.  As Grandal explained, taking the longer-term offers would’ve meant setting what he felt was a bad precedent for free agent catching contracts.  “One of my responsibilities as a player is also to respect the guys going through this process before me like Brian McCann, Russell Martin, Yadier Molina…These are guys who have established a market and pay levels for a particular tier of catchers like myself,” Grandal said.  “I felt l would be doing a disservice taking some of the deals that were offered even though they were slightly more long term.  I wanted to keep the line moving and set a bar for the younger guys coming up.  In hopes of them following our footsteps….hopefully, they know what they are worth and would go ahead and get paid what they’re worth.”  Grandal can technically achieve a second year on his Brewers deal, a mutual option for 2020 worth $16MM, though it seems unlikely that both he and the team would agree to enact their respective sides of that option.
  • The Twins’ offer to Grandal was worth around $13MM per season, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweets, though talks between the two parties “never gained traction.”  To use Grandal’s cited examples, $13MM is less in average annual value than McCann, Martin, and Molina each received in long-term deals from the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Cardinals, respectively.  (In fact, Molina averaged more than $13MM per year in each of his last two extensions with St. Louis.)  While time will tell if Grandal made the right move in turning down more long-term security, he clearly feels comfortable in betting on himself for a big 2019 season, while still picking up a nice one-year payday on a contending team.  The Twins’ pursuit of Grandal is interesting in light of recent comments from Derek Falvey and Thad Levine about the team’s rather conservative approach to spending this offseason, though obviously Minnesota (like any club) would be interested in larger multi-year deals if it felt it was getting something of a below-market price.
  • Athletics GM David Forst suggests that the door is still open to a long-term deal with slugger Khris Davis after the sides lined up on a 2019 contract for his final season of arbitration eligibility.  As Forst told John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters, the two sides have “continued that conversation” and could keep negotiating after Opening Day, if Davis is willing.  It had seemed possible that the need to hammer out an arb figure would drive talks, but with that already settled (at a hefty $16.5MM), any future-oriented agreement will simply have to reflect a difficult valuation case.  Davis is one of the game’s power bats, of course, but he’ll also be 32 on Opening Day 2020 and he doesn’t add value with the glove.

The Top Minor League Performers Of 2018

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Over at Roster Resource, I rank Minor Leaguers throughout the regular season using a formula that takes into account several statistics with age and level serving as important factors in how they are weighed. These are not prospect rankings!

This is how it works:

  • Hitters are mostly rated by total hits, outs, extra-base hits, walks, strikeouts and stolen bases.
  • Pitchers are mostly rated by strikeouts, walks, earned runs, home runs and hits allowed per inning.
  • A few counting stats are included (IP, plate appearances, runs, RBI) to ensure that the players atop the list played a majority of the season.
  • The younger the player and the higher the level, the more weight each category is given. Therefore, a 19-year-old with an identical stat line as a 25-year-old at the same level will be ranked much higher. If a 23-year-old in Triple-A puts up an identical stat line as a 23-year-old in High-A, the player in Triple-A would be ranked much higher.

A player’s potential does not factor in to where they are ranked. If you’re wondering why a certain prospect who is rated highly by experts isn’t on the list, it’s likely because they missed time due to injury (see Victor Robles or Nick Senzel), MLB promotion (Juan Soto) or just weren’t productive enough. While there are plenty of recognizable names throughout the MiLB Power Rankings Top 200 list, it’s also full of players who were relatively unknown prior to the season and have seen their stock rise significantly due to their performance. Here’s a closer look at the Top 20.

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Guerrero probably deserved to start his MLB career sometime between the debuts of NL Rookie of the Year candidates Ronald Acuña Jr. (April 25th) and Juan Soto (May 20th). All things being equal, that would’ve been the case.

But his call-up was delayed, mostly because third baseman Josh Donaldson was healthy in May and designated hitter Kendrys Morales was being given every opportunity to break out of an early season slump. As Guerrero’s path to regular playing time was becoming clearer, he suffered a knee injury in early June that kept him out of action for a month. When he returned, the Jays’ playoff chances had dwindled. Instead of adding him to the 40-man roster and starting his service time clock, they chose to delay his MLB debut until 2019.

You can hate the rule, but I’m certain Jays fans would rather have Guerrero under team control in 2025 as opposed to having him on the team for a few meaningless months in 2018 and headed for free agency after the 2024 season. And maybe it’s just me, but I kind of enjoy seeing what kind of numbers a player can put up when he’s way too good for his competition. And all this 19-year-old kid did was slash .381/.437/.636 with 20 HR, 29 2B, 37 BB, 38 K in 408 plate appearances, mostly between Triple-A and Double-A (he had 14 PAs during a rehab stint in the low minors).  Thanks for providing us with that beautiful stat line, Vlad Jr.

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2. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros | Astros Depth Chart

Despite a slow start—he had 21 hits in his first 83 Triple-A at-bats with one homer and 20 strikeouts— the 21-year-old Tucker showed why the World Champions were willing to give him a chance to take their starting left field job and run with it in July.

Tucker wasn’t quite ready for the Big Leagues—he was 8-for-52 in two separate MLB stints prior to a recent third call-up—but his stock hasn’t dropped one bit after slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers, 27 doubles and 20 stolen bases over 465 plate appearances in his first season at the Triple-A level.

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3. Luis Rengifo, SS, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

A 21-year-old shortstop just finished a Minor League season with 50 extra-base hits (7 HR, 30 2B, 13 3B), 41 stolen bases, as many walks as strikeouts (75 of each) and a .299/.399/.452 slash line. If the name Luis Rengifo doesn’t ring a bell, you’re probably not alone. He kind of came out of nowhere.

The Mariners traded him to the Rays last August in a deal for Mike Marjama and Ryan Garton. Nine months later, the Rays shipped him to the Angels as the PTBNL in the deal for C.J. Cron. Based on those two trades, I can say without hesitation that the Mariners and Rays did not think Rengifo was this good. Not even close.

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4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

Lowe’s breakout season mirrors Juan Soto’s in one way: They both posted an OPS above 1.000 at two different levels before a promotion to a third. Soto’s third stop was in Double-A, and it was a very short stint before heading to the Majors. After destroying High-A and Double-A pitching, Lowe’s final stop of 2018 was Triple-A, where he finally cooled off.

Still, the 23-year-old has put himself squarely on the Rays’ radar. After homering just 11 times in his first 757 plate appearances, all in the low minors, Lowe broke out with 27 homers and 32 doubles in 555 plate appearances in 2018. His overall .330/.416/.568 slash was exceptional.

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5. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

We’re four seasons into the Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano era—both debuted during the 2015 season—and we can’t say for certain whether either player will even be penciled into the regular lineup in 2019. They could be still turn out to be perennial All-Stars someday. But you can’t blame Twins fans if they temper their expectations for the next great hitting star to come up through their farm system. And yet, that might be difficult with Kirilloff, a first-round draft pick in ’16, and last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Royce Lewis, after the year each of them just had. Both are moving up the ladder quickly.

The 20-year-old Kirilloff, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, was a hitting machine in his first full professional season. After slashing .333/.391/.607 with 13 homers in 65 games with Low-A Cedar Rapids, he hit .362 with seven homers and 24 doubles in 65 games with High-A Fort Myers. He also had 11 hits in the playoffs, including a 5-hit performance on September 5th.

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6. Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

All Bichette did during his age-20 season was hit 43 doubles and steal 32 bases while manning shortstop for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, the 2018 Eastern League Champions. It’s unlikely that he’ll join Vlad Jr. in the Majors early next season, but he might not be too far behind.

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7. Peter Alonso, 1B, New York Mets | Mets Depth Chart

Alonso’s monster season (.975 OPS, 36 HR, 31 2B, 119 RBI between AAA/AA) ended in disappointment when he was passed over for a September promotion. As was the case with Vlad Jr., it didn’t make much sense to start his service time clock and fill a valuable 40-man spot during the offseason—neither Guerrero or Alonso have to be protected from the next Rule 5 draft—while the team is playing meaningless games. The 23-year-old Alonso did establish, however, that he is the Mets’ first baseman of the very near future, and they’ll plan accordingly during the upcoming offseason.

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8. Touki Toussaint, SP, Atlanta Braves | Braves Depth Chart

As tough as it will be to crack the Braves’ rotation in the coming years, the 22-year-old Toussaint has put himself in position to play a significant role in 2019 after posting a 2.38 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in 24 starts between Triple-A and Double-A. He’s also starting meaningful MLB games down the stretch as the Braves try to seal their first division title since 2013. After spending last October in the Arizona Fall League, where he followed up an underwhelming 2017 season by allowing 10 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings, he could find himself on the Braves’ playoff roster.

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9. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays | Rays Depth Chart

The highest-ranked player to spend the entire season in Low-A, the 20-year-old Brujan slashed .320/.403/.459 while stealing 55 bases in his first crack at a full season league (27 games in High-A; 95 games in Low-A). He’ll still be overshadowed a bit in a deep Tampa Bay farm system that includes two of the best young prospects in the game, Wander Franco and Jesus Sanchez, but it’s hard to ignore such a rare combination of speed and on-base ability displayed by a switch-hitting middle infielder.

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10. Michael King, SP, New York Yankees | Yankees Depth Chart

The Yankees’ offseason trade that sent two MLB-ready players, Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith, to the Marlins cleared a pair of 40-man roster spots prior to the Rule 5 draft and brought back $250K in international bonus pool money. They also received King, who—whether anyone expected it or not—was about to have a breakout season.

After posting a 3.14 ERA with a 6.4 K/9 over 149 innings in Low-A in his age-22 season, numbers that typically indicate “possible future back-of-the-rotation workhorse,”  he looks to be much more than that after his 2018 performance. In 161 1/3 innings across Triple-A, Double-A and High-A, King posted a 1.79 ERA, 0.911 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. He was at his best once he reached Triple-A, posting a 1.15 ERA with only 20 hits and six walks allowed over 39 innings.

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11. Taylor Widener, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks | Diamondbacks Depth Chart

Unlike the trade to acquire King, the Yankees appear to have gotten the short end of the stick in a three-team, seven-player offseason deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay. They traded away Nick Solak to the Rays and Widener to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Brandon Drury, who was supposed to fill a short-term need for infield depth.

While Drury was a bust in New York—he had nine hits in 51 at-bats before being traded to Toronto in a July deal for J.A. Happ—Solak, a second baseman/outfielder, put up terrific numbers in Double-A (.834 OPS, 19 HR, 21 SB) and Widener has emerged as one of the better pitching prospects in the game. The 23-year-old right-hander posted a 2.75 ERA, 2.8 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 over 137 1/6 innings with Double-A Jackson.

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12. Josh Naylor, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres | Padres Depth Chart

The offseason signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer certainly didn’t bode well for Naylor’s future with the Padres. Whether he had an MLB future at all, however, was already in question. First base prospects can’t just be good hitters. They need to mash, which is far from what Naylor did in 2017 (.761 OPS, 10 HR between Double-A and High-A). But a 20-year-old holding his own in Double-A is still interesting, nevertheless. So it was worth paying attention when he hit .379 with seven homers, five doubles, 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in April. He also spent most of his time in left field in 2018, adding a bit of versatility to his game.

Although April was his best month, by far, he still finished with an impressive .297/.383/.447 slash line. He’ll enter 2019 as a 21-year-old in Triple-A who has flashed some power (17 HR, 22 2B in 574 plate appearances) and above-average plate discipline (64 BB, 69 K).

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13. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Unlike the Jays and Mets, who had multiple reasons to keep Guerrero and Alonso in the Minors until 2019, the Sox’s decision to bypass Jimenez for a September call-up was more questionable.

Already on the 40-man roster and without much to prove after slashing .337/.384/.577 with 22 homers and 28 doubles between Triple-A and Double-A, Jimenez’s MLB debut appeared imminent as September approached. But White Sox general manager Rick Hahn, citing Jimenez’s need to improve his defense, confirmed in early September that he would not be called up. Of course, the 21-year-old probably would’ve benefited greatly from playing left field in the Majors for 20-25 games in September. And, of course, Hahn is just doing a good job of not saying the quiet part out loud: Eloy under team control through 2025 > Eloy under team control through 2024.

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14. Dean Kremer, SP, Baltimore Orioles | Orioles Depth Chart

After posting a 5.18 ERA in 2017, mostly as a relief pitcher in High-A, Kremer’s stock rose quickly with a full-time move to the starting rotation in 2018. In 16 starts for High-A Rancho Cucamonga, the 22-year-old right-hander posted a 3.30 ERA with a 13.0 K/9. After tossing seven shutout innings in his Double-A debut, the Dodgers included him as a key piece in the July trade for Manny Machado. Kremer continued to pitch well with Double-A Bowie (2.58 ERA, 45 1/3 IP, 38 H, 17 BB, 53 K) and now finds himself on track to help a rebuilding Orioles’ team in 2019.

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15. Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals | Royals Depth Chart

Lopez started to turn some heads during last offseason’s Arizona Fall League, and it carried over into 2018 as he slashed .308/.382/.417 with nine homers, 15 stolen bases and more walks (60) than strikeouts (52) between Triple-A and Double-A.  It’s a sign that the 23-year-0ld’s bat is catching up with his stellar defense and that he’s closing in on the Majors, where he could team with Adalberto Mondesi to form one of the better young middle infield duos in the game.

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16. Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins | Twins Depth Chart

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft didn’t disappoint in his first full professional season, posting an .853 OPS, nine homers, 23 doubles and 22 stolen bases in 75 Low-A games before a 2nd half promotion to High-A Fort Myers. He didn’t fare quite as well (.726 OPS, 5 HR, 6 SB in 46 games), but he did hit three homers in the playoffs to help his team win the Florida State League championship. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the if he reached Double-A early next season as a 19-year-old with a jump to the Majors in 2020 not out of the question.

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17. Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox | White Sox Depth Chart

Throwing a 100 MPH fastball isn’t as rare as it used to be, but Kopech has reportedly touched 105 MPH, putting him in a class of his own. Unfortunately, the 22-year-old right-hander is expected to join a long list of pitchers who have had their careers interrupted by Tommy John surgery after he was recently diagnosed with a torn UCL.

The timing isn’t great, as Kopech had just arrived in the Majors in late August and would’ve likely been a leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2019. Still, he’ll only have to prove that he’s back to full health before he returns to the Majors—he should be ready to return early in the 2020 season— after making a strong impression in Triple-A with a 3.70 ERA and 12.1 K/9 in 24 starts.

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18. Kevin Smith, SS, Toronto Blue Jays | Blue Jays Depth Chart

Not only do Guerrero, Bichette and Cavan Biggio likely form the best trio of infield prospects in the game, two are sons of Hall of Famers—Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and Craig Biggio, and Bichette’s dad, Dante, was also pretty good. And yet, another Blue Jays infield prospect with a very ordinary name and without MLB lineage managed to stand out. The 22-year-old finished the season with 25 homers, 31 doubles, 29 stolen bases and a cumulative .302/.358/.528 batting line between High-A and Low-A.

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19. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers | Dodgers Depth Chart

The former first-round pick wasn’t overly impressive in his first full Minor League season in 2017, slashing .244/.331/.362 with seven homers and 27 stolen bases for Low-A Great Lakes. A move to the hitter-friendly California League in 2018, however, seemed sure to give his offensive numbers a boost. It did. Lux had a .916 OPS and 41 extra-base hits in 404 plate appearances, but he also didn’t slow down once he reached the upper minors late in the year.

In 28 regular season games with Double-A Tulsa, the 20-year-old Lux slashed .324/.408/.495 with four homers in 120 plate appearances. It didn’t end there. Over an eight-game playoff run, the left-handed batter went 14-for-33 with five multi-hit games.

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20. Patrick Sandoval, SP, Los Angeles Angels | Angels Depth Chart

Acquiring the 21-year-old Sandoval from the Astros for free agent-to-be catcher Martin Maldonado could turn out to be the steal of the trade deadline. While the lefty didn’t stand out in Houston’s deep farm system, he was having a strong season at the High-A and Low-A levels at the time of the trade (2.56 ERA and 9.9 K/9 in 88 innings). The change of scenery didn’t affect him one bit as he tossed 14 2/3 shutout innings in the California League before finishing the season with four impressive Double-A starts (19 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 27 K).

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Power Ranking Leaders By Level

Triple-A
Hitter: Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Starting Pitcher: Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Relief Pitcher: Ian Gibaut, Tampa Bay Rays

Double-A
Hitter: Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitcher: Taylor Widener, Arizona Diamondbacks
Relief Pitcher: Matt Pierpont, Colorado Rockies

High-A
Hitter: Colton Welker, Colorado Rockies
Pitcher: Emilio Vargas, Arizona Diamondbacks

Low-A
Hitter: Chavez Young, Toronto Blue Jays
Pitcher: Jhonathan Diaz, Boston Red Sox

Short-Season A
Hitter: Tyler Freeman, Cleveland Indians
Pitcher: Jaison Vilera, New York Mets

Rookie 
Hitter: Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays
Pitcher: Joey Cantillo, San Diego Padres

Show all

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