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Which Free Agents Remain For Teams Seeking Rotation Help?

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With the holiday slowing down what had become a very rapid offseason, it works as a natural point to take stock of what players clubs could target in the coming weeks. On Monday, MLBTR looked through the remaining free agent relievers coming off the best 2022 campaigns (one of whom has since signed a major league deal). Now we’ll take stock of the rotation options who are still out on the open market.

There aren’t as many starting pitchers for clubs to sort through as there were bullpen targets, with 19 remaining hurlers who tallied at least 20 rotation innings this past season. We’ll look at the top half of that group by various metrics to determine who teams figure to prioritize as they seek starting pitching depth.

Note: all figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as starters.

ERA (league average — 4.05)

  1. Johnny Cueto (RHP), 3.29
  2. Michael Wacha (RHP), 3.32
  3. Wade Miley (LHP), 3.34
  4. Bryan Garcia (RHP), 3.54
  5. Zack Greinke (RHP), 3.68
  6. Devin Smeltzer (LHP), 4.02
  7. Zach Davies (RHP), 4.06
  8. Aníbal Sánchez (RHP), 4.28
  9. Drew Hutchison (RHP), 4.52

Strikeout rate (league average — 21.6%)

  1. Chase Anderson (RHP), 24.6%
  2. Matt Swarmer (RHP), 22.4%
  3. Bryan Garcia, 20.2%
  4. Michael Wacha, 20.2%
  5. Chris Archer (RHP), 19.2%
  6. Wade Miley, 18.4%
  7. Zach Davies, 17.9%
  8. Chad Kuhl (RHP), 17.8%
  9. Mike Minor (LHP), 16.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.1 percentage points)

  1. Michael Wacha, 14.2 points
  2. Matt Swarmer, 13.1 points
  3. Dylan Bundy (RHP), 11.1 points
  4. Chase Anderson, 10.6 points
  5. Johnny Cueto, 10.5 points
  6. Wade Miley, 9.2 points
  7. Michael Pineda (RHP), 9 points
  8. Aaron Sanchez (RHP), 9 points
  9. Zach Davies, 8.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 42.5%)

  1. Wade Miley, 54.2%
  2. Aaron Sanchez, 51.3%
  3. Chase Anderson, 50.9%
  4. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), 50.2%
  5. Jared Koenig (LHP), 47.2%
  6. Chris Archer, 43.7%
  7. Zach Davies, 42.9%
  8. Johnny Cueto, 42.5%
  9. Zack Greinke, 41.3%

FIP (league average — 4.04)

  1. Johnny Cueto, 3.76
  2. Wade Miley, 4.00
  3. Zack Greinke, 4.03
  4. Michael Wacha, 4.14
  5. Chase Anderson, 4.37
  6. Chris Archer, 4.49
  7. Aaron Sanchez, 4.61
  8. Dylan Bundy, 4.66
  9. Zach Davies, 4.83

Innings pitched

  1. Johnny Cueto, 153 1/3
  2. Dylan Bundy, 140
  3. Zack Greinke, 137
  4. Chad Kuhl, 137
  5. Zach Davies, 134 1/3
  6. Michael Wacha, 127 1/3
  7. Chris Archer, 102 2/3
  8. Mike Minor, 98
  9. Drew Hutchison, 89 2/3

Zack Greinke Expected To Pitch In 2023, Royals Interested In A Reunion

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Former Cy Young award-winner Zack Greinke is expected to pitch in 2023, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that the Royals are interested in a reunion for what would be Greinke’s age-39 season.

Greinke is the active career leader in innings pitched, having logged 3,247 innings over 19 seasons as a big leaguer. He has already put himself squarely within Hall of Fame consideration, having already amassed 223 wins and 2,882 strikeouts. If Greinke does return for a 20th season, he will give himself a chance to become the 20th player to strike out 3,000 batters. The odds of Greinke becoming a member of the 3,000 K club seem slim, however, as he will have to fan 118 batters, whereas he only punched out 73 in a full season of work last year.

Milestones aside, Greinke has proven he can still be an effective starter well into his late-30’s. In 26 starts during 2022, Greinke posted a 3.68 ERA. Though Greinke averages only 89.1 mph on his fastball and is in the second percentile in Whiff%, he issues fewer walks than 93% of all other big league pitchers. Just about all of his metrics indicate that Greinke will have to continue to draw on all the finesse he can muster to get outs. He registers well below league average in terms of average exit velocity and hard hit rate against.

The Royals seem like a perfect fit to accommodate Greinke’s 20th season. Kansas City has plenty of rotation uncertainty and room for him in their rotation. That’s not to say that Greinke’s prospective return to the Royals, albeit sentimental, is purely for nostalgia’s sake. Greinke had Kansas City’s second-best ERA of any regular starter, and was one of two Royals starters with an ERA below 5.00. While the righty may be able to find opportunities with more clear-cut contenders, he prioritized returning to Kansas City as a free agent last offseason. Despite reportedly receiving similar offers from the Twins and Tigers, Grienke inked a $13MM deal with K.C. On the heels of a career-low strikeout rate, he may find a slightly lesser deal in free agency this time around.

Royals Place Zack Greinke, Josh Staumont On Injured List

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The Royals announced that starter Zack Greinke is headed to the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 21, with forearm tightness. Reliever Josh Staumont is also going on the 15-day IL with biceps tendinitis. Collin Snider and Anthony Misiewicz were recalled from Triple-A Omaha to take the vacated active roster spots.

Greinke last took the mound on Sunday but came out of his start against the Rays after four innings due to forearm discomfort. How severe the issue is remains unclear, but it’s worrisome enough the Royals will keep him out of action for at least the next two weeks. It comes at an unfortunate time, as Greinke had allowed only three earned runs in 16 1/3 innings over his most recent three starts. Of course, with the Royals near the bottom of the American League standings and looking ahead to 2023, there’s little reason for Greinke and the club not to exercise caution with any arm issues.

Signed to a one-year, $13MM guarantee over the offseason, Greinke has made 21 starts during his second stint in Kansas City. He owns a 4.14 ERA through 108 2/3 innings despite a career-low 13.7% strikeout rate. The 38-year-old no longer throws hard or misses many bats, but he retains elite command and has provided the club with generally solid back-of-the-rotation production. He’ll again hit the free agent market this winter.

Staumont has had a very inconsistent 2022 campaign. Long considered one of the organization’s top pitching prospects, Staumont looked to have settled in as a quality late-game reliever over the prior two seasons. Between 2020-21, he tossed 90 1/3 innings of 2.76 ERA ball while striking out 29% of batters faced. As he had throughout his minor league career, he struggled to throw strikes at times, but his power arsenal was on full display.

He’d remained generally effective through the first few months of this season, working to a 3.67 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout percentage through the All-Star Break. Things have gone completely off the rails in the second half, however, as he’s been tagged for 16 runs with 11 strikeouts and walks apiece in 10 2/3 innings over his past 12 outings. Staumont will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and is controllable through 2025.

Misiewicz is now in position to make his team debut. Acquired from the Mariners at the start of the month, he was promptly optioned to Omaha. He’s allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings there since the trade, striking out seven with just one walk. The left-hander had made 104 MLB appearances with Seattle over the past three seasons, working to a 4.48 ERA over 88 1/3 frames.

Royals Unlikely To Trade Zack Greinke

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JULY 19: Kansas City general manager J.J. Piccolo pushed back against the idea the Royals would only trade Grienke if he requested a deal in a recent appearance on 610 Sports Radio (h/t to Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). “There’s nothing contractually. We’ll treat Zack Greinke the exact same way we’ll treat any other player. If the return is a good return, then we’ll look at it,” Piccolo said about the possibility of a Greinke deal. The GM acknowledged the team “would have discussions with Zack if anything were to come forward” in recognition of his decision to sign there over the winter, but it doesn’t appear there’s a firm mandate not to deal the six-time All-Star. He nevertheless indicated they’ve yet to have any substantive discussions with interested teams and conceded it seems unlikely a deal will wind up coming together before the deadline.

JULY 15: With the Royals already in sell mode, the majority of their impending free agents figure to eventually emerge as trade candidates. One exception appears to be right-hander Zack Greinke, whom the Royals aren’t planning to trade unless he specifically asks to be dealt, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.

The 38-year-old Greinke is back with his original organization after 11 years spent honing a potential Hall of Fame resume around the league, making stops with the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, D-backs and Astros along the way. Greinke chose to sign a one-year, $13MM deal with the Royals despite a reportedly comparable offer from the now-division-leading Twins and interest at a similar price point from the Tigers. Detroit GM Al Avila said during Spring Training that money was not the deciding factor in Greinke’s decision. Rather, the righty preferred going “back to Kansas City and the place where he started,” which is wholly understandable at this juncture of his career. Heyman adds that Greinke recently purchased a home in Kansas City as well — all of which combines to make a trade appear fairly unlikely.

Greinke has been mostly solid for an unproven and at times shaky Royals staff this season, making 14 starts and logging 73 2/3 frames of 4.52 ERA ball. All of the damage against him has come in four road starts, as he’s been hit hard in Houston, Colorado, Minnesota and Arizona. Greinke has a 1.86 ERA while pitching at Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium, and despite the pedestrian earned run average, he’s held his opponents to two or fewer runs in nine of his 14 starts. Righties Brad Keller (3.96 ERA, 97 2/3 innings) and Brady Singer (3.82 ERA, 66 innings) have also been good for Kansas City, but the rest of the pitchers who’ve started games for the Royals this year have ERAs either just under or well north of 5.00.

A former Cy Young winner, six-time All-Star, six-time Gold Glover and two-time ERA champion, Greinke’s dominance has faded late in his career as his fastball velocity and strikeout rates have dropped. He’s averaging just 89.2 mph with his “heater” in 2022 while striking out a career-low 12.5% of his opponents. His command of the strike zone remains masterful, however, evidenced by a 4.5% walk rate and a 67.9% first-pitch strike rate, which ranks tenth among big league pitchers (min. 70 innings).

It’s certainly possible that as the deadline draws nearer, Greinke will feel the urge to again join a postseason push and approach the front office about engineering a trade. Even then, he’d likely be selective about his preferred destination, so a trade wouldn’t necessarily be a given. At least for now, it seems much likelier that he stays put.

Royals Place Zack Greinke On 15-Day Injured List

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The Royals announced a flurry of roster moves this afternoon, adding four players (outfielder Kyle Isbel, right-handers Arodys Vizcaino and Jose Cuas, and left-hander Foster Griffin) to the active roster, sending three (left-hander Gabe Speier and right-handers Matt Peacock and Zack Greinke) to the injured list, and returning one (outfielder Brewer Hicklen) to Triple-A Omaha.  Of the four activated, Isbel was reinstated from the injured list, Griffin was recalled from Triple-A, and Vizcaino and Cuas were each selected from Triple-A, meaning that they were also added to the club’s 40-man roster.

Greinke is the only one of the three IL players who is going to the 15-day IL with a designated issue, implying that Peacock and Speier are on the COVID-related injury list.  Isbel had also been on the COVID list due to virus symptoms, though it ended up being a non-COVID illness that sidelined the outfielder for four days.

Greinke is suffering from a right flexor strain, and the veteran righty recently told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that he has been dealing with related soreness for “a little bit.”  While any injury in the forearm or elbow area is a red flag, Greinke added that he has been dealing with some degree of elbow problems for years, so it’s possible that a 15-day absence might be all it takes for Greinke to heal up.

The injury could explain Greinke’s lack of success in his last four starts, as the former Cy Young Award winner has a 9.50 ERA in his last 18 innings of work.  His ERA now sits at 5.05 over 51 2/3 innings, with only a minuscule 11.2% strikeout rate.  Between this lack of whiffs and a lot of hard contact allowed, there isn’t much to like about Greinke’s numbers apart from his typically excellent walk rate (4.5%).

Vizcaino is on the verge of his first MLB appearance since the 2019 season, when he tossed four innings for the Braves before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery.  The veteran didn’t return to the field at all until 2021, when he tossed 7 2/3 innings with the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate, and Vizcaino then inked a minor league with the Royals this past winter.

After essentially three full years off, it’s hard to know what to expect from Vizcaino in his return to the Show, though he was a very capable bullpen arm for Atlanta in his heyday.  He has also looked quite good with Triple-A Omaha, posting a 1.76 ERA and 29.7% strikeout rate in 15 1/3 innings.  Vizcaino’s 9.4% walk rate is a little on the high side, but actually an improvement over his career 10.8% walk rate at the big league level.

The 27-year-old Cuas has finally reached the majors after a pro career that has seen him bounce around the minors and independent leagues, and change his position entirely from infielder to pitcher.  An 11th-round draft pick by the Brewers in 2015, Cuas wasn’t getting anywhere as a position player, but his fortunes changed after converting to relief pitching in 2018.  Over 126 2/3 career innings in the minors, Cuas has a 2.63 ERA, with a sidearm delivery and a sinker-slider combo that induces a lot of grounders and a good amount (22.22%) of strikeouts.

AL Central Notes: Gray, Grossman, Greinke

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Twins’ starter Sonny Gray left today’s game after being visited by team trainers. The team announced to reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that Gray has right pectoral tightness. The severity isn’t known at this time, but it’s no doubt worrying for the Twins and their fans. Gray already missed about three weeks on the IL this season, although that was a hamstring strain.

Still, the Twins are in a bit of a squeeze when it comes to their rotation. Chris Paddack, Josh Winder and Joe Ryan have all landed on the IL in the past couple of weeks, which has thinned out their depth. The rotation at the moment consists of Gray, Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer and Devin Smeltzer. The club is currently in the middle of a stretch where they play 18 games in 17 days, thanks to a doubleheader that’s coming up on Tuesday. Even if Gray can make his next start, it’s going to be a challenge to get through the next chunk of their schedule.

Perhaps adding to that challenge will be the subtraction of some unknown players when the Twins head to Toronto next week to face the Blue Jays. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune relays word from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey that “a few” of the players on the roster won’t be making the journey. Current Canadian health restrictions don’t allow for those not vaccinated against COVID-19 to cross the border into the country. (Canada is not exceptional in this regard. The same restrictions apply in reverse, as unvaccinated Canadians are not currently allowed to enter the United States.)

Other notes from the division…

  • Robbie Grossman started today’s game as the designated hitter for the Tigers but was replaced by Jeimer Candelario. Manager A.J. Hinch told reporters after the game, including Jason Beck of MLB.com, that Grossman was experiencing neck spasms. While it doesn’t appear Grossman is headed for a lengthy absence, it’s surely frustrating for a Detroit team that has been heavily snakebit this season. Though the club entered the season with hopes of competing for a playoff spot, they’ve been hit by a large number of injuries, most notably in the starting rotation. The club’s record is currently 17-29, putting them second-last in the American League, ahead of only the Royals. That has the club trending towards being sellers at the deadline this year, with short-term assets the most likely to go. Grossman fits that bill, as he’s in the second season of the two-year deal he signed with Detroit in 2021. Unfortunately, his trade value is likely at a low ebb, due to his slow start to the year. After hitting .239/.357/.415 last year for a wRC+ of 114, he’s currently slashing .199/.311/.241 this year for a 71 wRC+. Last year’s 23.1% strikeout rate has also shot up to 30.7% this year. He and the Tigers will both surely be hoping that this current issue can be quickly left behind so that Grossman can get back on track. The Blue Jays tried to acquire Grossman at last year’s deadline, though they may not have as much interest now, based on his campaign so far.
  • Royals manager Mike Matheny tells reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star, that Zack Greinke is dealing with a forearm/flexor issue. Greinke himself spoke to reporters about the issue, including Worthy, describing his arm as “sore and tight.” Like the Tigers, there was some hope of the Royals coming out of their rebuild and competing his year, though that hasn’t happened. The club’s 16-30 record is worse than every team in the majors except for the 16-31 Reds, thanks in no small part to the starting rotation. Royals’ starters had an ERA of 5.07 coming into today, which was better than only the Reds and Nationals. That’s going to go up once today’s game is factored in, as Greinke allowed five earned runs in four innings today. His personal ERA on the season climbed to 5.05 from that start, which would be his highest since the 5.80 he put up back in 2005, his age-21 season. While the severity of the injury isn’t known, it’s never a good sign for a pitcher to have an arm issue, though he and the club will surely hope he can get past it and onto a better track going forward.

AL Central Notes: Twins, Royals, Greinke, Rosario,

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Zack Greinke is headed back to the Royals on a one-year deal worth $13MM, but Kansas City faced some competition from a division rival in securing his services. The Twins made a “strong push” to sign Greinke before he landed back in K.C., tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North radio. Wolfson speculates that in the end, the allure of returning to his original organization may have simply proven too strong for Minnesota or another organization to overcome once the Royals jumped into the bidding.

The Twins have been one of the most active clubs on the trade market since the lockout ended, but they’ve yet to make a serious move in free agency this offseason — either pre- or post-lockout. Minnesota has added Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez via trade and rolled the dice on an affordable Dylan Bundy flier ($5MM with a 2023 club option) in free agency, but there’s still work to be done in the rotation, at shortstop and in the bullpen. They’ve been talking to the A’s about lefty Sean Manaea and righty Frankie Montas, and they’ve also reportedly been in touch with Trevor Story about a potential deal.

Here’s more from the division…

  • Speaking of Greinke, the new Royals right-hander told reporters that he is not planning for the 2022 season to be his last, per Josh Vernier of 610 Sports Radio’s. It’s a welcome piece of news for fans of the enigmatic pitcher, who will gear up for his twentieth year in the Majors if he lands on an active roster in 2023. The longtime ace isn’t just looking to pad his Hall of Fame credentials either, as he’s coming off a season where he posted a useful 4.16 ERA in 171 innings. Though Greinke’s strikeout and home run rates trended in the wrong direction last year his ability to pound the strike zone and eat innings make up a skillset that will surely appeal to teams.
  • The Guardians have a huge need in the outfield and a massive stockpile of high-end middle infield talent on the cusp of MLB readiness, which has prompted a good bit of speculation about them trading for some outfield help. However, manager Terry Francona told reporters yesterday that he currently plans to have 2021 shortstop Amed Rosario split his time between short and left field, which could create some additional opportunities for that surplus of middle infield prospects (Twitter link via Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer). Rosario, 26, posted a .282/.321/.409 batting line in 588 plate appearances last season — spending the vast majority of his time at shortstop. He did see 123 innings in the outfield, mostly in center, with lackluster defensive ratings. It’s still possible that Cleveland will pick up some more established outfield help one way or another, but for now it looks like Myles Straw will reprise his role in center and be flanked by a combination of Rosario, Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado and top prospect Steven Kwan in the corners.

Tigers Notes: Manaea, Montas, Greinke, Torkelson, Greene

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The Tigers have had an active offseason, acquiring Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodríguez, Andrew Chafin and Tucker Barnhart. They could still use some help at the back of the rotation, though, and they’ve been tied to a few starting pitchers in recent days.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted last night that Detroit was among the teams in discussions with the A’s about Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea. It is widely believed Oakland will move one or both of those players, as the A’s have kicked off their long-rumored reboot since the lockout was lifted. Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have already been shipped out. Manaea, entering his final year of club control, seems a lock to change teams. Montas has an additional year of control, but that was also true of Chapman and Olson.

Either would be a marked upgrade to the rotation, beyond a typical back-of-the-rotation acquisition. Manaea tossed 179 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA/3.68 SIERA ball last season, his third sub-4.00 showing in four full seasons. Montas was even better, pitching to a 3.37 ERA in 187 frames with a strong 26.6% strikeout rate.

The A’s two starters may be the top two arms available to pitching-needy clubs. Every currently healthy starting pitcher who made MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list entering the offseason has already signed. The Reds don’t intend to trade Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle, leaving few obvious remaining trade candidates.

Detroit general manager Al Avila met with reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press) this afternoon. He acknowledged that the market was “thinning out a little bit” but said the front office was “still trying to improve the team.” The Tigers were reportedly involved in the bidding for Zack Greinke before the six-time All-Star returned to the Royals on a $13MM deal. Avila confirmed as much today, saying “we were in the Greinke situation” but that the righty preferred to “(go) back to Kansas City and the place where he started.” Avila implied the Tigers were prepared to make an offer at least competitive with the Royals’ proposal but suggested Detroit was at a geographic disadvantage against their division rivals.

Asked about the possibility of acquiring one of the A’s hurlers, Avila said they’ve looked into making an impact acquisition via trade but expressed a desire “to be careful” in not parting with too much prospect talent. Montas, given his two years of control and superior numbers, would bring back more in return than would Manaea.

Speaking of top prospects, Avila addressed the status of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. Both young hitters are among Baseball America’s top five overall minor league talents, and each had excellent late-season showings with Triple-A Toledo last year. Whether either of Torkelson or Greene will make the Opening Day roster is one of the biggest questions for the organization.

Avila denied that service time considerations would play a role in whether to carry those players out of camp. “When a player is ready to come up, and the team is ready to go, there’s no reason to hold a player back. I was not taught that way,” the GM said, via Petzold. “I also believe I’m not arrogant enough to think that I could hold a guy back and we’re going to get by and we’re going to make the playoffs anyway. You got to go full bore from Day 1. Those few games at the beginning could mean everything at the end. That’s the way I was taught. Our decision is going to be to put the best team on the field where we can win and get to the playoffs.”

To be clear, that’s not a formal declaration that either of Greene or Torkelson will break camp. Avila said the front office will “know it when we see it” when asked about when those players will be ready for their debuts. There’d seem to be a real opportunity for either to open the year on the MLB roster. Putting Torkelson at first could allow Jonathan Schoop to kick back to second base, which might otherwise be manned by Willi Castro or Harold Castro. Greene could be an option for either left or center field, where he’d presumably be complemented by Akil Baddoo and Robbie Grossman, with Víctor Reyes moving into a fourth outfield role.

Royals Sign Zack Greinke

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5:44pm: To make room for Greinke on the 40-man roster, the club has placed Tyler Zuber on the 60-day IL, per various reports, including Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Zuber has right shoulder impingement syndrome and will miss the start of the season.

4:42pm: The Royals have formally announced the signing.

2:48pm: Zack Greinke is going back to his roots. The free-agent righty has agreed to a one-year deal with the Royals, pending the completion of a physical, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Greinke, a client of Excel Sports Management, will be guaranteed $13MM and can earn another $2MM via innings-based incentives, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

The 38-year-old Greinke isn’t the fireballing ace that he was toward the end of his first run with the Royals, but he remains an effective innings eater. He’ll return to his old stomping ground as the elder statesman on what figures to be an extremely young staff who’ll no doubt want to soak up as much pitching knowledge as possible from the 18-yeasr big league veteran.

Zack Greinke | Stan Szeto-USA TODAY SportsGreinke spent the past two-plus seasons with the Astros after being traded from Arizona to Houston in a buzzer-beating deal at the 2019 trade deadline. Greinke’s once blazing fastball averaged just 89 mph in 2021 and his strikeout rate dipped, but he’s maintained pristine command of the strike zone (5.2% walk rate). Since 2020, Greinke has a 4.12 ERA in 238 innings for Houston, although his 2021 season would’ve looked considerably better were it not for a late September swoon.

Through his first 26 starts in 2021, Greinke pitched to a strong 3.41 ERA. Fielding-independent metrics were still a bit down on him because of the lack of punchouts (17.5% in that stretch), but Greinke yielded a paltry 87.7 mph average exit velocity in that time and had a 33% opponents’ hard-hit rate. Greinke tested positive for Covid-19 at the end of August and went back on the IL in late September due to neck soreness. It’s not clear that either had a direct impact on his results, although it’s certainly possible that he wasn’t pitching at 100% down the stretch. The results seem to suggest as much, as Greinke was tattooed for 21 runs in his final 15 1/3 innings of work.

Even if Greinke should be projected for more of a low-4.00s ERA than the mid-3.00 range he sat for much of the 2021 season, he’ll still be a valuable and reliable source of innings for the Royals. He’s made at least 28 appearances in 11 of the past 14 seasons, with the exceptions being the shortened 2020 season (when he made all 12 of his starts) and the 2016 season (when he missed a month with an oblique injury but still started 26 games).

For a Royals club that expects to give the bulk of its innings to young and/or unproven starters — Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic, Carlos Hernandez, Jonathan Heasley — the ability to confidently pencil Greinke in for around 30 starts and 170-plus frames is especially important. Brad Keller is currently the only starter on the staff with more than two years of Major League service time, but he’s in search of a rebound from a career-worst performance this past season.

The deal for Greinke ostensibly came together in fairly quick fashion. Kansas City traded Mike Minor to the Royals just this afternoon, and reports immediately following the deal suggested that they were in the hunt for rotation upgrades. Although they’re said to have checked in with the A’s about a potential Frankie Montas deal, it’ll be Greinke who joins the staff to help stabilize the group and, ideally, help guide the Royals back to a winning record

Subtracting Minor and adding Greinke’s larger salary brings the Royals up to a projected payroll of a bit more than $93MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s nowhere near the franchise record $143MM from 2017, but that payroll was buoyed by a pair of consecutive World Series appearances achieved by the Royals’ former core. The fact that they felt compelled to move Minor and save some money on his salary before adding Greinke suggests that new owner John Sherman, who purchased the team in 2019, isn’t comfortable pushing payroll back to those 2017 levels at this time.

It’s possible that further additions will follow for the Royals. They’ve reportedly sought ways to trade Carlos Santana, both as a means of clearing playing time for top prospect Nick Pratto and also in order to shed the veteran’s $10.5MM salary. If president of baseball operations Dayton Moore manages to find a Santana deal similar to this afternoon’s Minor trade, additional veteran reinforcements could be on the way to help supplement a young Royals team that’ll see the debuts of Pratto and top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. early in the 2022 season.

Tigers Interested In Zack Greinke, Michael Pineda

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The Tigers are “still in the mix” for free agent starters Zack Greinke and Michael Pineda, The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky reports (Twitter link).  While the Tigers also re-signed Wily Peralta on a minor league deal earlier today, the club is clearly still interested in adding further reinforcements to its rotation, and using Peralta in his old swingman role.

Eduardo Rodriguez was signed to a five-year, $77MM deal back in November, thus giving Detroit a veteran arm to augment the promising young rotation trio of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning.  Even with Peralta now in the fold as well, adding yet another full-time starter would give the Tigers more depth in the event of injury, or if any of the younger hurlers aren’t quite yet ready to deliver at the Major League level.  Neither Greinke or Pineda are exactly sure things themselves, of course, but they do bring plenty of experience to a Tigers team that plans to return to contention.

Greinke’s 17.2% strikeout rate last season was his lowest since 2006, while his 17.4% home run rate was the highest of his 18-year career.  The veteran righty also missed time due to both neck soreness and the COVID-related injury list during the last two months of the season, and thus the Astros only used Greinke on a sparing and limited basis during their postseason run.

This said, Greinke was still an effective pitcher overall, posting an elite 5.2% walk rate and solid hard-contact numbers en route to a 4.16 ERA over 171 innings for Houston.  Even as Greinke enters his age-38 season, there is plenty of indication that he can still be a strong contributor to a big league rotation, though his days of being an All-Star caliber starter are probably over.

Pineda is only 33, but carries more durability questions than Greinke.  Three separate IL stints limited Pineda to 109 1/3 innings with the Twins last season, and he also missed all of 2018 recovering from a Tommy John surgery.  When Pineda did pitch last year, he performed well via the bottom-line number of a 3.62 ERA, though his Statcast metrics were much less flattering, apart from an outstanding 4.6% walk rate.  Pineda had some of the worst hard-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball, and his 19.2% strikeout rate was both well below the league average and the worst K% of Pineda’s eight big league seasons.

It would certainly seem likely that either Greinke or Pineda would be available on a one-year contract, which would fit a Detroit club that could be looking for more supplementary pieces after already spending big on E-Rod and Javier Baez.  MLBTR ranked Greinke 40th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a one-year, $15MM deal.  Pineda signed two-year deals with the Twins in each of his last two visits to the open market, though both of those contracts (worth $10MM and $20MM, respectively) were impacted by his Tommy John recovery and the 60-game PED suspension that cost him parts of the 2019 and 2020 season.

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