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Robbie Erlin

On Pirates’ Recent Moves

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The Pirates’ GM Ben Cherington emerged from his new office this week with the first batch of transactions since he took over in Pittsburgh. The Starling Marte trade to Arizona was the headline-grabbiest of the bunch, wherein Cherington added two high-ceiling, but far-away prospects to Pittsburgh system.

A flurry of low-key pickups followed for Cherington as the Pirates bought  in bulk: Charlie Tilson, Andrew Susac, JT Riddle, Robbie Erlin and Derek Holland signed minor league deals this week. Cherington gives Erlin a decent shot of joining the bullpen, which is otherwise without a lefty except for rotation candidate Steven Brault, per The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel.

Holland, too, could end up in the bullpen, but like Brault, he’ll be given a shot at the rotation. Holland’s glory days as a Texas Ranger are long in the rearview, but his 2018 with the Giants at least gives the perception of a raised ceiling for Holland after otherwise forgettable stints with each Chicago team. It was just two seasons ago that Holland put up 171 1/3 innings with an impressive 3.57 ERA/3.87 FIP across 36 games for the Giants.

Holland’s shoe game remained on-point in 2019, but he struggled on the hill, both for the Giants and then for the Cubs. He only got 7 turns through the rotation to start the season, but 26 earned runs in 34 1/3 innings earned a demotion to the bullpen, where he stayed until the deadline trade to the Cubs. The Cubs relied on him as a lefty reliever out of the pen, but he struggled there, too, marking a 10.50 ERA in September, contributing to the Cubs’ tailspin.

Still, he’ll come into camp representing a veteran floor for the Pittsburgh rotation as Brault and Mitch Keller try to earn their spot. If the young Pirate arms aren’t ready to take the ball every five days, Holland could find himself back in a big league rotation in 2020.

Pirates, Robbie Erlin Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander Robbie Erlin, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports. The Apex Baseball client will be in Major League camp this spring and would lock in a $1.5MM salary if he makes the club. The deal also contains an extra $100K worth of incentives.

Erlin, 29, has 313 innings of big league experience, all coming with the Padres from 2013-19. He’s worked both out of the rotation (38 career starts) and the bullpen (68 relief outings) and compiled a career 4.57 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9 and a 43.4 percent ground-ball rate. Notably, his career ERA as a reliever (3.86) is more than a run better than his earned run average out of the rotation (4.98).

This past season, Erlin showed above-average spin on his fastball and curve, and it’s also worth pointing out that his career FIP (3.59) is nearly a full run lower than his ERA. Erlin has routinely been plagued by a below-average strand rate, and last year’s ugly 5.37 earned run average was in part impacted by a sky-high .373 average on balls in play.

The Pirates don’t have an established lefty in their bullpen at the moment, so Erlin will give the club some spring competition for Sam Howard and fellow non-roster southpaws Nik Turley and Brandon Waddell.

Padres Decline Aaron Loup’s Option; Robbie Erlin Elects Free Agency

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It’s been a busy day transactional day for the Padres, and the team announced two more additional moves to clear space on the 40-man roster.  San Diego declined its $2MM club option on left-hander Aaron Loup, instead paying him $200K in a buyout.  The club also parted ways with left-hander Robbie Erlin, who cleared waivers and is now a free agent.

Loup came to San Diego on a one-year deal that paid him at least $1.4MM in guaranteed money (the $200K buyout and $1.2MM in salary for 2019).  Unfortunately for the veteran southpaw, his season was cut short after only four appearances, as he suffered a left forearm strain that sidelined him for the remainder of the year.  Loup also missed about a month in 2018 with a forearm strain, which creates even more durability questions for a pitcher who was a bullpen workhorse for the Blue Jays from 2013-17 (averaging 57 appearances per season).  It seems that Loup will almost surely have to settle for a minor league contract as he looks to rebound from his lost 2019.

Erlin will hit the open market after nine years in San Diego’s organization.  Long considered a potential staple of the Padres’ rotation, inconsistency and some notable injuries hampered Erlin’s progress.  He missed a good deal of 2014 due to elbow problems, and then virtually all of the 2016-17 seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Since returning, he has pitched largely as a reliever and shown some promise, as his 5.37 ERA over 55 1/3 innings in 2019 was underscored by some much stronger ERA predictors (3.61 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA), and could have been inflated by a .373 BABIP.  With a fastball that barely cracked the 90mph mark, Erlin isn’t a hard thrower, though his 8.46 K/9 in 2019 represents a new career best.

Erlin only just turned 29, and could draw some free agent interest in his new role as a multi-inning reliever.  He is projected to make $2MM this winter, in third and final year of arbitration eligibility.

Roster Notes: Padres, Paddack, Rangers, Cubs, Scahill

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The Padres #5 ranked prospect per MLB.com (#34 overall) is angling to get the nod on Opening Day, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Chris Paddack threw four scoreless innings, which included a stretch in which he struck out five consecutive Oakland A’s batters in his most recent spring start. Last season, Paddack made seven starts in Double-A after cruising through High-A, where he notched an eye-popping 14.3 K/9 versus 0.7 BB/9 in 52 1/3 innings. Double-A didn’t slow him much, going 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA in 7 starts, 8.8 K/9 to 1.0 BB/9. Still, from Double-A to an Opening Day start would be quite the jump for the 23-year-old, just a year removed from missing all of 2017 to Tommy John surgery. The competition is fairly wide open, however, as the Padres, by design, brought very little in the way of established talent to camp. Since the offseason departures of veterans Clayton Richard (traded to Blue Jays) and Tyson Ross (signed with Tigers), Robbie Erlin boasts the most experience in the group, and he’s not even a lock to make the rotation. Fellow southpaws Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer each have a shot to get the Opening Day nod, as well. Let’s check in on the Rangers’ and Cubs’ camps as teams begin to whittle their spring rosters…

  • The Rangers culled their number of players in camp to 60. Pitchers Taylor Guerrieri, Michael Tonkin, Miguel Del Pozo and Brady Feigl were all assigned to minor league camp, per the Rangers’ executive VP of communications John Blake (via Twitter). Guerrieri, 26, joined the Rangers after making his major league debut last season with the Blue Jays. A former first round pick of the Rays, he was a starter in the minor leagues until missing most of the 2017 season due to injury. Toronto claimed him off waivers before last season, where started 7 games in Triple-A before appearing 9 times out of the Blue Jays pen, pitching to a 5.02 FIP in a small-sample 9 2/3 big league innings. Tonkin, 29, appeared in parts of five seasons for the Twins from 2013 to 2017 with a 4.57 FIP across 141 games. Del Pozo, 26, reached as far as Double-A in the Marlins system before joining the Rangers as a non-roster invitee. While Feigl, 28, is back in the Rangers system where he has pitched for the past two seasons.
  • The Cubs made a number of roster moves today, with promising righties Adbert Alzolay and Jen-Ho Tseng being optioned to Triple-A, while Justin Steele and Oscar De La Cruz were sent to Double-A, per the Athletic’s Patrick Mooney (Twitter links). Also on the move, Duncan Robinson, Ian Clarkin, Colin Rea, Ian Rice, Charcer Burks and Jacob Hannemann are being moved to minor league camp (Twitter link). Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune (via Twitter) adds Craig Brooks, Alberto Baldonado and Evan Marzilli to the list of players headed to minor league camp. The Cubs spring roster has now been cut to 54.
  • Rob Scahill, meanwhile, was released outright by the Cubs, per Mooney (via Twitter). Scahill has pitched at the big league level for parts of seven seasons running, topping out at 31 appearances in 2016 spread between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. In total, the 32-year-old boasts a career 3.95 ERA (4.67 FIP) in 124 games for Rockies, Pirates, Brewers and White Sox.

Padres, Robbie Erlin Avoid Arbitration

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The Padres have avoided arbitration with southpaw Robbie Erlin by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $1.45MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That marks an $800K raise from last season’s $650K salary and checks in a fair bit north of Erlin’s projected $1.1MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz). Erlin is repped by Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.

The 28-year-old Erlin was arbitration-eligible for a second time this winter and will go through the process once more next winter before becoming a free agent upon completion of the 2020 season. Erlin missed most of the 2016 season and the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery (hence the modest $650K salary in his first trip through the arb process), but he rebounded with a solid effort on the mound in 2018. The left-hander tossed 109 innings for the Friars and logged a 4.21 ERA, though his sterling 88-to-12 K/BB ratio and solid 46.7 percent ground-ball rate led fielding-independent metrics to view his work much more favorably (3.31 FIP, 3.41 xFIP, 3.52 SIERA).

Erlin made 27 relief appearances and a dozen starts for the Padres last season, including a run of 10 starts to finish out his season. The Padres were cautious with those starts, never allowing him to reach 100 pitches and only allowing him to top five innings on one occasion, but he’ll likely open the season in the San Diego rotation with fewer restrictions now that he’s further removed from surgery.

The Padres have now avoided arbitration with Erlin, righty Bryan Mitchell and infielder Greg Garcia, leaving right-hander Kirby Yates, outfielder Travis Jankowski and catcher Austin Hedges as their three remaining cases to be resolved. With the deadline to exchange arbitration figures looming on Friday, there figures to be a veritable avalanche of settlements on Friday (in addition to a few early deals today and tomorrow). Readers can keep up with all of the filings and settlements using MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

NL West Notes: Samardzija, Padres, Rockies

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Giants righty Jeff Samardzija held an interesting chat with MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. In large part, it’s a lengthy discussion of Samardzija’s multi-sport background and decision to pursue baseball professionally — which, he says, was driven more by interest than any considerations of the health implications of playing in the NFL. The San Francisco hurler likens the game of baseball to a “big painting you put together” and hints he could still have some masterpieces in his brush. He also suggests he’s not yet thinking about the end: “Where’s the end of the wick? Who knows? Let’s find out. That’s the fun of it all.”

More from the NL West:

  • As the Padres consider roster options, the club is looking to squeeze some added utility out of certain players. Infielder Christian Villanueva, in particular, will be tried out as a backup option at short, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter). The 26-year-old, who’s out of options, has played all of 14 innings at short as a professional. But after he posted a .296/.369/.528 slash at Triple-A last year, the Pads seem to be looking for ways to hang onto Villanueva.
  • In other Padres news, the organization is seeing promising signs from injured hurlers Robbie Erlin and Colin Rea, per Cassavell. The Tommy John recoverees are certainly interesting players to watch this spring, as both have shown their talent at times in the past. Erlin, it’s worth noting, is well ahead of Rea in the rehab process, though both are well over a year removed from their procedures. Both are part of a long list of pitching possibilities in Padres camp, as reflected in the current organizational depth chart over at Roster Resource.
  • It seems one area of focus this spring for the Rockies is finding a way to swipe a few more bags. As Nick Groke of the Denver Post reports, the club is particularly interested to see whether the fleet-footed Raimel Tapia can learn to translate his speed into stolen bases. Just as interesting as the efforts on the bases, it seems there’s at least some hope that Tapia could hold down a spot at the top of the lineup. That seems a bit of a questionable fit, as the young outfielder doesn’t walk much and is therefore quite reliant upon maintaining a lofty batting average on balls in play to get on base. While lineup construction is hardly the most consequential issue facing the Rox, it seems worth noting that second baseman DJ LeMahieu has led the club in OBP in each of the past two seasons and would seem to be a sensible fit in the leadoff spot.

Quick Hits: Ohtani, Rangers, Yankees, Erlin

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Shohei Ohtani’s narrowing market has dominated headlines today, though not every club joined in on the action.  According to ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required), at least three teams didn’t respond to the request made last week by Ohtani’s agent asking for each MLB club to pitch itself to the Japanese star via a seven-point written explanation.  It isn’t known which teams didn’t submit the information, though it’s probably safe to assume the Marlins were one, as they’re the only team known to have declined a pursuit of Ohtani’s services.  Unless a club had received some knowledge about Ohtani’s preferred destinations and knew not to bother, it doesn’t seem like there’s any reason why a team wouldn’t have at least tried to attract his attention.  As Olney put it in September, not even trying for Ohtani “would be the general manager’s version of failing to run out a ground ball.”

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • The Yankees weren’t one of the teams that made it through to the interview stage with Ohtani, though his agents at CAA reportedly tried to at least give New York some further consideration, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports.  It seems as if Ohtani simply prefers to play closer to the West Coast, and thus while the Yankees made a lot of sense for him on paper, there wasn’t any need to include them in the next stage of candidates.
  • The Rangers are one of the teams reportedly still in the hunt to sign Ohtani, though if they’re at a disadvantage if Ohtani is favoring West Coast teams, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News proposes a more unique way for the Rangers to stand out — a six-man rotation.  This would give Ohtani a schedule more akin to his one start-per-week schedule in Japan, plus give him more opportunity for at-bats in between his starts.  Beyond just favoring Ohtani, Grant argues that a six-man rotation might also help the Rangers keep Cole Hamels and Martin Perez fresher, while allowing the club to manage Matt Bush’s innings in a possible transition to starting pitching.  Texas manager Jeff Banister has spoken in favor of a six-man rotation in the past, and given the Rangers’ lack of starting pitching depth, now might be as good a time as any to be creative.
  • Robbie Erlin’s contract with the Padres will pay him $650K in 2018, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports (Twitter link).  The left-hander was eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter, though he and the Padres avoided the process by agreeing to that one-year deal, which fell just shy of MLBTR’s projected $700K salary for Erlin.  After undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2016, Erlin missed all of the 2017 season recovering from the procedure.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/1/17

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With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players set for 8pm tonight, there should be several agreements over the next few hours — particularly among players that were considered to be potential non-tender candidates. Many non-tender candidates will be presented with offers that are lower than what they’d project to earn via arbitration in a “take it or leave it” manner; some will agree to the lesser deal (as Brewers catcher Stephen Vogt did earlier this morning) while others will reject and likely hit the open market.

Here’s today’s slate of players that have avoided the arb process and locked in at least a partial guarantee for the upcoming season (arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed, but each of these players will be guaranteed one sixth of the agreed-upon sum unless specifically negotiated otherwise). All projections are via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…

  • The Padres announced that lefty Robbie Erlin has agreed to a contract for 2018. The 27-year-old missed all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery and was projected to earn $700K through arbitration. Terms of his deal have not yet been reported.
  • The Braves appear to have agreed to terms with just-claimed righty Chase Whitley, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Whitley, who was projected to earn $1.0MM in his first season of arb eligibility, is said to be in line for an opportunity to work as a starter. It’s a split deal that would pay Whitley $800K in the majors, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.
  • The Mariners agreed with Andrew Romine on a $1.05MM contract, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Romine, a versatile infielder, was claimed off waivers after the end of the 2017 season.
  • Outfielder Abraham Almonte has reached a deal to avoid arbitration with the Indians, per a club announcement. He had featured as a possible non-tender candidate but instead found common ground with the organization. Almonte, 28, slashed just .233/.314/.366 in his 195 trips to the plate in 2017. He had projected to earn a $1.1MM payday in his first season of arbitration eligibility but will take home $825K, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
  • The Royals have agreed to terms with righty Mike Morin to avoid arbitration, the club announced. He’ll receive a split contract, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets, with a $750K annual earning rate in the majors and $250K in the minors. Morin, who projected at $700K, drew a mention on MLBTR’s non-tender candidates list. Indeed, his contract reflects the middling season that he turned in. Morin allowed 16 earned runs in twenty MLB frames, though he was more effective at Triple-A.
  • Yimi Garcia and the Dodgers have avoided arbitration, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). Garia projected to command only a $700K salary after missing all of 2017 following Tommy John surgery; he’ll end up taking home $630K, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Now 27, Garcia had established himself as a significant member of the Dodgers’ bullpen in 2015, when he compiled a 3.34 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 over 56 2/3 innings. But injuries limited him in the ensuing season and ultimately culminated in a UCL replacement.
  • Per a club announcement, the Indians have agreed to a contract with righty Dan Otero. Otero will take home $1.3MM, per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (via Twitter). He was projected to command $1.4MM. The 32-year-old Otero has been an unmitigated bargain for Cleveland over the past two years, turning in 130 2/3 total innings of 2.14 ERA pitching despite averaging just 6.5 K/9 in that span. Otero has succeeded with unfailing command (just 19 walks since joining the Indians) and a hefty groundball rate (over 60% in each of the past two seasons).
  • The Angels and righty Blake Wood agreed to a one-year, $1.45MM deal that falls well shy of his $2.2MM projection, as FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman was the first to report (via Twitter). Wood struggled mightily in Cincinnati before being picked up by the Halos late in the year and turning his season around a bit. In 17 innings with the Angels, he posted a 4.76 ERA with a much more promising 22-to-4 K/BB ratio. Heyman notes that he can earn up to $50K worth of incentives as well.
  • The White Sox announced that they’ve signed right-hander Danny Farquhar to a one-year deal worth $1.05MM — a pact that falls shy of his $1.5MM projection. In 49 1/3 innings between the Rays and ChiSox, the 30-year-old logged a 4.20 ERA with 8.2 K/9, 5.1 BB/9 and a 41.7 percent ground-ball rate.

NL West Notes: Martinez, Cain, Urias, Padres

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J.D. Martinez has been an incredible source of power for the D-backs, slugging 18 homers in just 173 plate appearances with his new team. There’s mutual interest between the two sides in extending their relationship beyond the 2017 season, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, though there are clear challenges that stand in the way of that possibility. With Zack Greinke, Yasmany Tomas and Paul Goldschmidt already under contract in 2018 plus an enormous arbitration class (A.J. Pollock, Robbie Ray, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Shelby Miller, Chris Owings, Patrick Corbin, Taijuan Walker, Randall Delgado, Andrew Chafin), Arizona is already likely to approach or replicate 2017’s Opening Day payroll of $103MM. Martinez suggested that he’d prefer to sign with a winning team rather than a rebuilding club that offered more money, while GM Mike Hazen (without mentioning any possible payroll constraints) said he wouldn’t rule anything out. That said, with a five-year deal looking firmly plausible for Martinez this winter, it seems to me that a reunion between the two sides is a considerable long shot, as other contenders will surely be making lucrative offers as well.

Elsewhere in the division…

  • Right-hander Matt Cain isn’t sure what the future holds for him, writes John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. The former Giants ace and longtime rotation stalwart tells Shea that “being able to be a career guy (with one team) is something that’s dear to my heart.” Cain adds that he values the loyalty that the organization has shown to him over the course of his career and that he’d relish the chance to become just the fourth player to ever have spent at least 10 years in the Majors — all with the Giants. Cain, though, does not firmly rule out the possibility of continuing his career, even if it’s with another club. Giants fans will want to check out the full column, as it’s filled with anecdotes related to Cain’s legacy in San Francisco and features quotes from teammates Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey as well as pitching coach Dave Righetti, skipper Bruce Bochy and of course, Cain himself.
  • Dodgers left-hander Julio Urias underwent shoulder surgery to repair his left anterior capsule earlier this season, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman writes in his weekly NL Notes roundup that the procedure actually went better than expected. Per Heyman, Dr. Neal ElAttrache anticipates a full recovery for the highly touted 21-year-old, although Urias still appears to be facing a significant layoff. Dodgers president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman said at the time of the surgery (in late June) that a rehab period of 12 months was expected for Urias.
  • The progress of Colin Rea and Robbie Erlin, both rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, gives the Padres another pair of arms to add to next spring’s rotation battle, writes MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell. Both pitchers joined the team in September (though not the active roster, to be clear) as they continue their rehab process. Erlin is facing live hitters and is throwing every fifth day, alternating between bullpen sessions and live batting practice. Rea, meanwhile, is up to five bullpen sessions and will keep throwing into mid-October before a six-week break. They’ll join any offseason additions as well as injured rotation hopefuls such as Matt Strahm, Christian Friedrich and Jarred Cosart in vying for starting jobs with the Friars next March.

Robbie Erlin To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Padres left-hander Robbie Erlin has a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow and will miss the remainder of the season (and, presumably, the beginning of the 2017 campaign) due to Tommy John surgery, tweets Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Erlin had been placed on the 15-day disabled list back in late April with what manager Andy Green described to reporters as forearm tightness.

The 25-year-old Erlin, originally acquired from the Rangers as part of the 2012 Mike Adams trade, has spent parts of the past four seasons with San Diego’s big league affiliate, pitching to a combined 4.54 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 to go along with a 40.4 percent ground-ball rate in 148 2/3 innings. This season, Erlin had tossed 15 2/3 innings across three appearances (two starts) and allowed seven earned runs with a 13-to-3 K/BB ratio. The loss of Erlin will further thin out the Padres’ pitching depth, as Opening Day starter Tyson Ross remains on the shelf indefinitely due to inflammation in his right shoulder. With Erlin out, the Padres’ rotation currently consists of Andrew Cashner, James Shields, Drew Pomeranz and rookies Colin Rea and Cesar Vargas. Further depth options at the Triple-A level include left-hander Christian Friedrich and veteran right-hander Jeremy Guthrie.

To this point in his career, Erlin has accumulated a year and 78 days of big league service time, and he’ll accrue another full season due to time spent on the disabled list. That’ll push him up to two-plus years of service, but he’ll still fall considerably shy of Super Two status and therefore will not be arbitration eligible next winter.

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