Marlins Acquire Fernando Rodney
Declaring their intentions to push for the postseason in 2016, the Marlins have struck a deal to acquire veteran right-hander Fernando Rodney from the Padres. Miami parted with interesting young righty Chris Paddack in the swap, which ESPN’s Keith Law first reported (Twitter links).
Rodney, 39, is in the midst of his latest rebound campaign, having posted a sparkling 0.31 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a career-best 59 percent ground-ball rate in 28 2/3 innings as San Diego’s closer. He’s saved 17 games for the Friars, but he may be ticketed for setup duties with the Fish, as Miami’s A.J. Ramos has had a strong season of his own. The 29-year-old Ramos has posted a 1.74 ERA and averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings, although he’s also seen his control abandon him somewhat in 2016, as he’s averaging a somewhat troublesome 5.2 walks per nine innings.
Miami started from behind in the bullpen this year when Carter Capps went down to Tommy John surgery and Kyle Barraclough failed to win a job out of camp. Things have ticked up, with David Phelps emerging as a quality option and Barraclough returning with his two-true-outcomes approach (over half of the batters he faces strike out or walk). But the Fish also saw Bryan Morris go down mid-season, taking another set-up man out of the picture, and the overall unit has suffered from a lack of depth.
Adding Rodney will not only infuse another high-octane arm at the back of the pen, but will increase the quality of the pitching appearing in other situations. That’s not to say that things are perfect now; in particular, adding a quality lefty would appear to make sense. And while the team is largely set on the offensive side of the fence, but has long been said to have interest in a starter or two.
[Related: Updated Marlins Depth Chart]
The Marlins typically operate with a notoriously slim payroll, but Rodney’s contract is affordable enough that virtually any club could’ve fit him onto its ledger. He’s earning a $1.6MM base salary this season, and his contract includes a club option for the 2017 campaign that comes with a $2MM buyout. The pact does contain incentives that could bring the value of both his 2016 salary and his 2017 option to $7MM, though a large portion of those incentives are tied to games finished.
Thus far, Rodney has locked in an additional $250K for completing 20 games, and he’d earn that same amount again upon reaching 30 games finished. Rodney would earn $500K for reaching 40 games finished and an additional $500K for every five games finished beyond that point through 65 games, but if he’s working in a setup capacity, his chances to close out games will naturally be limited. Rodney also earns $500K for appearing in his 40th, 50th and 60th games of the season.
All told, it seems likely to expect that Rodney will earn at least $2.85MM this season (20 games finished, plus appearing in at least 50 games), and the value of his conditional club option will increase to match that sum. Even if Rodney clears $3MM in 2016 earnings, that’d still be a more than reasonable price based on his 2016 output to date.
In order to gain the low cost and relatively high-upside reliever, Miami had to part with a fairly intriguing prospect. Paddack was just an eighth-round pick in the 2015 draft, but he has been nothing short of remarkable at the Class A level in 2016. Over 28 1/3 innings, he has allowed a ridiculous nine hits and carries a brilliant 0.95 ERA with a 48-to-2 K/BB ratio. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis rate him the 17th-best prospect on an poorly-regarded Marlins farm — the same offseason ranking he received from Baseball America — but it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Heyman’s Latest: Yankees, Pirates, Teheran, Marlins
There appear to be different viewpoints in the Yankees front office about how to approach the deadline, Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com writes. GM Brian Cashman may actually be more inclined to sell some assets than is the ownership and upper-level management, per the report.
After a long look at that situation, Heyman goes on to provide some other notes from around the game:
- Some within the Yankees think there’s a very good chance that Aroldis Chapman will be around for the long-term, whether that comes about via extension or a re-signing over the winter. Meanwhile, a team official says the price on Andrew Miller is so high that the odds he’ll be dealt are miniscule.
- The Pirates could sell off a few short-term pieces if the club isn’t in contention come late July, but a broader sale isn’t expected. Heyman suggests Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, David Freese, and perhaps Tony Watson as plausible trade chips. You could probably also throw names like Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, and Juan Nicasio into the mix as well.
- Julio Teheran may be pitching his way out of a trade for the Braves, says Heyman. Rival executives suggest that they see a trade as unlikely, and also gave some endorsement of his value. Heyman cites three who believe Teheran is a better trade piece than Sonny Gray of the Athletics at this stage.
- There’s plenty of demand on the starting pitching market, which is perhaps one reason to think that some arms could end up being pried loose. Heyman lists the Orioles, Red Sox, Dodgers, Tigers, Rangers, Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners, and Yankees as looking for rotation pieces.
- The Marlins are also reputed to be looking for starting pitching, with Drew Pomeranz on the wish list. But a Miami source tells Heyman that the team finds it “hard to trust Pomeranz” given his relatively thin track record.
- The Padres “at least took a look” at Jose Reyes before he signed with the Mets, per Heyman. It isn’t clear what sort of opportunity San Diego was interested in offering, but it’s not surprising to hear that the organization is looking for low-cost ways to seek value.
NL West Notes: Schumaker, Urias, Dodgers, Arroyo
The Padres have brought back Skip Schumaker … but he won’t be wearing a uniform. As MLB.com’s Carlos Collazo writes, the recently-retired utilityman will join the organization as an assistant to baseball operations and player development. Schumaker was in Spring Training with San Diego this season before he decided to call it a career midway through camp. Clearly, though, the longtime big leaguer made a positive impression on his final organization, leading to his new role with the team. Skipper Andy Green says that Schumaker will be “making his rounds in the organization, offering insight at different levels.”
A few more notes from the NL West…
- Julio Urias will likely stick in the Dodgers rotation through the All-Star break, manager Dave Roberts told reporters including MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick (links to Twitter). With the club struggling to bridge the gap to its injured starters — particularly with Clayton Kershaw now questionable for his next outing — Roberts acknowledged that a near-term deal for a starter is a “possibility.” That seems to match with the earlier report suggesting a possible match with the Rays on Erasmo Ramirez.
- The Dodgers have placed infielder Enrique Hernandez on the DL with inflammation in his rib cage, as Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times writes. That opens a roster spot for the promotion of righty Brock Stewart — who Jason Martinez of MLBTR/Roster Resource recently profiled. Stewart battled through some early struggles but logged five innings in his debut outing. (You can check out the new-look depth chart for Los Angeles right here.) More troublesome for the Dodgers, however, is the fact that Joc Pederson may need to join Hernandez on the disabled list, per McCullough. Pederson injured his right shoulder when he crashed into the wall making a spectacular grab the other night, and while initial x-rays revealed no broken bones, the outfielder told the media that he could scarcely lift his arm yesterday, noting that he had difficulty even getting dressed or putting on deodorant due to the lack of mobility.
- Speaking of Stewart, Fangraphs’ David Laurila writes that he spoke to the infielder-turned-pitcher last summer about how pitching was never the avenue via which he expected to enter professional baseball. However, struggles at the plate during his junior season at Illinois State led a coach to suggest to him that his future may be on the mound, and his father (a pro scout for the Rays), agreed. Last summer, Stewart explained to Laurila that his velocity sat 90-92 and touched 94 mph, and described his slider rather timidly. Now, Laurila notes, Stewart tops out at 96 mph and has a much-improved slider, which have helped him reach the Majors with the Dodgers despite the fact that he opened the season at Class-A Advanced and had never pitched at a higher level.
- Those clamoring for the Giants to promote top prospect Christian Arroyo will have to wait, as Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. “You won’t see Arroyo,” GM Bobby Evans said earlier when asked about the possibility of Arroyo replacing the injured Joe Panik, and indeed the club proceeded to add Ruben Tejada instead of the youngster. It certainly seems as if San Francisco doesn’t feel that the 21-year-old is fully prepared for the majors, as Super Two considerations aren’t an issue at his stage of the year. Arroyo is only now in his first stint at Double-A, and isn’t exactly dominating the level with a .279/.321/.390 slash. Arroyo entered the year rated as Baseball America’s No. 62 overall prospect and the No. 82 prospect over at MLB.com.
International Notes: July 2 Preview, Maitan, Braves, Padres
Baseball America’s Ben Badler has compiled scouting reports on the Top 50 prospects on the upcoming July 2 international market, in addition to providing projected landing spots for each player on the list. The exhaustive report on the international scene requires a BA subscription, but it’s highly recommended for those who wish to dive headfirst into learning about the upcoming glut of talent that will be injected into most clubs’ minor league pipelines. Those looking to learn more about the process can also check out this primer from Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who also provides a ranking of the class (with further explanation here).
Here are just a few highlights from Badler’s excellent work on the topic, which deserves a full read:
- Badler takes a particularly close look at top prospect Kevin Maitan, who he says may be a better prospect than Miguel Sano was as a teenager. The link comes with a lengthy and detailed scouting report, including discussion of the question whether Maitain will be able to stay at shortstop for the long run. Scouts are divided on the likelihood, but all seem to agree it’s at least a plausible outcome.
- Maitan has long been said to be heading for the Braves, and we’ve yet to hear anything to change that expectation. Atlanta has lined up a big batch of spending, but Badler provides a bit of context for just how large: he says it “should look comparable to what the Yankees did in 2014-15.” (You can refresh yourself on New York’s shock and awe campaign here.)
- The Padres appear headed in that direction, too, as Badler says that a $30MM to $35MM spend might be their floor. In addition to big activity on the Cuban market, San Diego is in line to add eight of the top fifty available players. As for the Nationals, who are also believed to be pacing the market in spending, it might not be quite that dramatic. But Washington could still come away with three of the fifteen best prospecs on the market.
- The Astros, too, seem ready to drop some big cash — including a $3.5MM bonus for Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra. Houston is eyeing five of the top fifty names on Badler’s list, he notes. One player that could be ticketed for the ‘Stros is fifth overall prospect Freudis Nova.
- Nova had been connected to the Marlins before failing a PED test. Now, Badler explains, Miami has a big chunk of pool availability and little in the way of commitments. The club could deal that away or see if it can find a nice price on the Cuban market.
- It also remains to be seen what the Reds will do, but Badler explains that things could go in either of two directions. Cinci could trade for some added bonus pool space to add Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez and a few smaller signings without hitting the penalty. Or, the team could enter the broader Cuban market and blow past its limits.
- The White Sox are expected to land slugging prospect Josue Guerrero — who, yes, is a part of the famous family. Despite being quiet in recent years, the Athletics are in position to add some talent, including George Bell, whose father (same name) was a quality big leaguer.
- The Brewers aren’t believed to have any seven-figure bonuses lined up, but could still add a high number of interesting players with the fifth-highest spending availability in the game. Likewise, the Phillies are expected to spread their cash.
- Of course, not every team will have the opportunity to spend lavishly this period; the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Royals and Blue Jays are each prohibited from spending more than $300K on international amateurs after incurring maximum penalties, though that doesn’t mean those organizations don’t have a chance to find some talent.
Jon Jay Suffers Broken Forearm
11:09pm: Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union Tribune writes that Jay will be re-evaluated three weeks from now and will be on the shelf for between four and six weeks total. A four- or even nearly a five-week absence could have Jay back just prior to this season’s Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but there’s also a very real possibility that he’ll be out beyond the deadline. Jay won’t require surgery, and the injury is described by manager Andy Green as a “slight” fracture of the radius in Jay’s forearm. Addressing the length of time between Jay being struck by the pitch and today’s diagnosis, Green offered the following explanation:
“He got hit on the ulna (bone), and it banged into the radius and actually got the radius. So it’s not the bone that actually got hit. The swelling was between those two bones, so you couldn’t get a clear picture of it. That’s what the X-ray wasn’t able to reveal.”
12:45pm: Padres outfielder Jon Jay has suffered a broken forearm, Darren Smith of Mighty1090.com reports on Twitter. He’ll be placed on the 15-day DL, with Alex Dickerson brought up to take his place on the active roster.
[Related: Updated Padres Depth Chart]
Jay was injured when he was struck by a fastball from Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez a week back. He has not played since, but initial x-rays were negative, leading to hopes that Jay would not even require a DL stint. The prognosis remains unknown at present, but it certainly seems the injury is much more serious than had been anticipated.
While it’s wise not to jump to conclusions, this injury seems as if it could well take Jay out of the running as a trade piece this summer. With a reasonable $6.225MM salary, and no obligations after the year, he had seemed like a rather likely player to be dealt; indeed, he ranked 7th on MLBTR’s most recent list of the top trade candidates around the game.
Since coming over in exchange for infielder Jedd Gyorko over the winter, Jay had been a bright spot for a struggling Padres ballclub. Over 291 plate appearances, the 31-year-old was carrying a .296/.345/.407 batting line with two home runs and a league-leading 24 doubles. Defensive metrics were a bit down on his work in center in a short sample, but Jay has consistently rated as a quality up-the-middle defender over his career.
That strong start not only made Jay an interesting target for teams needing another solid outfielder, but seemed likely to set him up for a solid free agent payday after the season. He was coming off of a subpar, injury-marred 2015 season, but had returned to the solidly above-average offensive production that he has carried for most all of his time in the majors.
From the team’s perspective, losing Jay is the latest blow to its stock of trade assets. Two other prime candidates — righties Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner — both remain on the DL as the August 1st deadline draws near.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Padres Claim Paul Clemens
The Padres have claimed righty Paul Clemens, Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com reports on Twitter. The 28-year-old was evidently placed on waivers by the Marlins, for whom he had been pitching.
Clemens made two starts for Miami this year, throwing ten innings over which he allowed seven earned earns on 11 hits and eight walks against six strikeouts. He had spent most of the year at Triple-A, pitching to a 4.30 ERA with 7.9 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 over 75 1/3 frames.
Knocking Down The Door: Bell, Berrios, Hedges, Judge, Stewart
This week’s installment of “Knocking Down The Door” includes five homegrown players—two first-round picks, two second-round picks and one sixth-round pick—who are close to reaching the majors with the team that drafted and signed them to professional contracts.
Josh Bell, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates (Triple-A Indianapolis): Chad Kuhl‘s solid MLB debut on Sunday should ease the calls for top pitching prospect Tyler Glasnow (13 IP, 0 R, 0 H over last two starts) to join the big league rotation, at least for this week. I’m not sure John Jaso‘s doing enough (.619 OPS since May 29th) to hold off Bell much longer, though.
The 23-year-old first baseman has been a hitting machine during his ascent through the minors, and 2016 has been no different. Well, there has been one difference. He’s finally starting to show off some in-game home run power (11 HR in 74 games in 2016; 30 HR in 373 games from 2012-15) to go along with the high average (.321) and on-base percentage (.405), which should get the attention of a Pirates front office that isn’t known for quickly moving prospects up the ladder.
With a .356/.422/.644 slash line in June, the switch-hitting Bell has done more than enough to earn a spot with the Pirates and push Jaso into a bench role.
Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins (Triple-A Rochester): It wasn’t a big surprise that Berrios earned an early promotion to the Majors in 2016. He dominated in Triple-A last season (2.85 ERA, 1.7 BB/9, 9. K/9 in 12 starts) and is considered to be one of the best pitching prospects in the game. It also shouldn’t have been a surprise, however, that a 21-year-old struggled in the big leagues and was sent to Triple-A after four starts.
Now a 22-year-old with two more months of Triple-A experience under his belt, Berrios is making a strong case to rejoin the Twins’ rotation after tossing three-hit ball over eight shutout innings in his last start. It was the eighth time in 10 starts that he’s allowed two earned runs or less and seventh time he’s allowed three hits or less.
Left-hander Tommy Milone did not fare well in his return to the rotation last week, and Tyler Duffey was on the brink of a demotion before dominating the Yankees in his last start. I’m guessing we’ll see Berrios if either Milone or Duffey has a bad start this week.
Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres (Triple-A El Paso): It doesn’t matter if Hedges homers in 10 straight games — he’s actually halfway there right now — there isn’t a spot for him on the Major League roster until the Padres can trade Derek Norris, who has an .828 OPS in June and is under team control through 2018. Those numbers are attractive on the trade market.
Norris also has value to the Padres, but Hedges’ recent power surge (seven homers in nine games) is a reminder that they have a big league ready catcher down in Triple-A who many think can be an elite defender and is healthy after surgery in late April to repair a fractured hamate bone.
The Austin Hedges era should begin in San Diego very soon — no, last year’s big league stint when he sat on the bench and watched Norris play almost every day doesn’t count. It just won’t happen until the Derek Norris era ends.
Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre): If a hitter’s walk-to-strikeout ratio is an indicator of his readiness for the majors, then maybe Judge is getting very close.
After walking 16 times and striking out 56 times in April and May, the 24-year-old Judge must be unrecognizable at the plate with his June performance—he’s walked 17 times and struck out only 21 times. While some hitters sacrifice power with a more patient approach, Judge’s power has also increased (8 homers in June; 7 homers in April/May).
Right fielder Carlos Beltran has been the Yankees’ most productive hitter in June, but he’s also 39 years old and needs to start getting off his feet and into the designated hitter spot more often. That designated hitter spot is currently being occupied by 40-year-old Alex Rodriguez, who is not having a productive season. Add those two things up and Judge has a chance to be patrolling the Bronx outfield in the near future.
Brock Stewart, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (Triple-A Oklahoma City): The Dodgers currently have an opening in their rotation and there is a chance that they go with a guy who started the season in High-A and hadn’t been considered much of a prospect.
Crazy, right? Not as crazy at how deserving the guy is. (Note: Apparently the Dodgers agree, as Stewart tweets that he has been called up.)
A 6th Round draft pick in 2014, Stewart had the misfortune of spending most of his first full pro season in the very hitter-friendly California League, where he posted a 5.43 ERA. He returned there to start 2016 and was rewarded/saved with a promotion after two good starts. The 24-year-old has not stopped dominating hitters since.
After cruising through Double-A with 1.12 ERA, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in nine starts, the right-hander has been brilliant in three Triple-A starts (2.89 ERA, 18.2 IP, 2 BB 27 K), including back-to-back 10-strikeout games. His next start could come in the majors on Wednesday.
“Knocking Down the Door” is a weekly feature that identifies minor leaguers who are making a case for a big league promotion.
Marlins Discussing Aroldis Chapman, Fernando Rodney
The Marlins are known to be exploring the relief pitching market, and they’ve had internal discussions about both the Yankees’ Aroldis Chapman and the Padres’ Fernando Rodney, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney (in his latest subscription-only column). It isn’t known if these discussions reflect genuine interest, as teams routinely go over many options in the leadup to the trade deadline.
There has been quite a bit of speculation about the Yankees trading at least one of Chapman, Andrew Miller or Dellin Betances should the team fall out of contention. Chapman is a free agent this winter and moving Miller would free up some payroll room, though the controllable Betances would probably bring back the biggest return of the trio. Some have argued that New York could deal from their uber-bullpen even if they’re still in the race, as they would still have a powerful end-game answer with just two of those excellent relievers, and trading the third would address needs in the rotation or lineup. Still, it’s rather hard to see a contending Yankees team breaking up their dominant relief trio given how the rest of their bullpen has been unimpressive.
It’s much more likely that the Padres would explore deals for Rodney, given how San Diego is currently in the NL West basement. Rodney has a microscopic 0.31 ERA through 28 2/3 innings, with 10.4 K/9 and a 2.75 K/BB rate. Obviously some good fortune is involved in Rodney’s near-perfect season (such as a .210 BABIP and a 92.6% strand rate) but he is still posting fine numbers even by ERA-indicator standards: 2.29 FIP, 3.22 xFIP, 3.04 SIERA. Rodney has generally been a good-to-great reliever since 2012 except for last season, when his early-season struggles led to a midseason release from the Mariners, though he regained some of his form against signing on with the Cubs late in the year.
The Marlins had some interest in Rodney last winter before he signed with the Padres, so it’s no surprise that they’re looking at him again in the wake of his successful year. It’s also not hard to believe that Miami is discussing Chapman, as any team in need of a bullpen upgrade would given his excellent track record.
With a thin farm system and a lack of interest in dealing Major League parts, the Marlins could offer to take on salary to facilitate a trade, though neither Chapman or Rodney represent a big payroll outlay. Chapman is owed approximately $5.75MM over the rest of the year while Rodney has only around $850K in base salary this year and at least $400K to buy out a $2MM club option for 2017 (though these numbers can rise rather significantly based on incentives). I’d guess it unlikely that Jeffrey Loria approves enough of a payroll boost to absorb one of several albatross contracts cluttering both the New York and San Diego rosters, so there might not a trade fit unless the Marlins have a prospect or two that the Yankees or Padres particularly like.
Cafardo’s Latest: Valencia, Royals, Liriano, Melancon, Santana
Here’s the latest hot stove buzz from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe…
- The Royals and Indians are among the teams looking at Athletics third baseman Danny Valencia. Kansas City has a void at third base with Mike Moustakas out for the season, and Valencia is a known quantity, having played for the team in 2014. The Tribe have also received below-replacement level production at the hot corner all season, though Jose Ramirez has played well splitting time between third and left field. Valencia could perhaps be a better fit for Cleveland in left given his rough defensive metrics (-13 Defensive Runs Saved, -26.9 UZR.150) at third base this season, though his bat certainly plays for either the Indians or Royals. Valencia is hitting .333/.381/.552 with 11 homers over 218 PA for the A’s, though that comes with the caveat of a .373 BABIP. The Mets are another team known to have interest in Valencia, though their subsequent signing of Jose Reyes may have addressed their infield needs.
- While Valencia is a right-handed bat, Cafardo notes in another item that “the Royals seem to be in on every left-handed hitter.” K.C. has posted middle-of-the-pack offensive statistics against righty pitching this year and is lacking in lineup balance, though the return of Alex Gordon from the DL should help on both counts. Cafardo implies that Padres outfielder Jon Jay (a left-handed hitter) could be a Royals trade target.
- The Marlins “possibly” have interest in Pirates southpaw Francisco Liriano. The lefty is having a down year, though the Fish could see Liriano as an answer to their pitching search due to the presence of Miami VP of pitching development Jim Benedict (who was credited with getting Liriano on track when the two were in Pittsburgh).
- Speaking of Pirates arms, closer Mark Melancon is also drawing attention from teams in need of bullpen help. Cafardo cites the Astros, Giants, Mets and Red Sox as teams who could be potential fits. Melancon is a free agent at the end of the season and thus could be a logical trade candidate if the Bucs decide to become deadline sellers. Melancon has a 1.53 ERA through 29 1/3 IP this season, though advanced metrics indicate that this is the weakest of his four seasons as a Pirates. Melancon has a 2.93 FIP, 4.18 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA, while experiencing drops in his strikeout and grounder rates (and an increase in BB/9).
- Ervin Santana “is seen as perhaps the most viable trade deadline pickup on the market,” with one AL assistant GM describing the Twins veteran as “the one guy out there who could be a sure thing in the middle of the rotation.” Santana has a 4.64 ERA, 6.37 K/9 and 2.39 K/BB rate over 77 2/3 innings this season, with ERA indicators backing up his unimpressive ERA. I would guess Minnesota would have to eat a fair amount of money in a Santana trade, as the righty is owed roughly $33.8MM through the 2018 season (plus a $14MM club/vesting option for 2019).
- Even a mid-tier arm like Santana could draw trade interest, however, as Cafardo predicts that little pitching will be available at the deadline. Teams may focus more on offense, and Cafardo lists 15 position players who could be targeted as we approach August 1. Many of the names have already cropped up in trade rumors, though Cafardo speculates that some unlikely names as Joe Mauer or Khris Davis could also get some attention.
MLBTR Roundtable: Trading Drew Pomeranz
Drew Pomeranz has seen his name creep up in trade rumors over the past week, with various reports connecting him to the Marlins and the Orioles. As I recently did with Julio Teheran (see here and here) — another controllable pitcher that is drawing trade interest but needn’t necessarily be aggressively shopped by his team — I explored the cases for an against a Pomeranz trade yesterday. There’s no right or wrong answer to the debate, of course, and we at MLBTR apparently aren’t able to come to a consensus on the matter. Here’s the second edition of our MLBTR Roundtable series, in which I’ve asked everyone from our staff to weigh in on whether the Padres should hang onto Pomeranz or look to sell high on him this summer…
Tim Dierkes: The Padres should trade Drew Pomeranz this summer. Despite a 3.00 ERA at present, there are concerns. First, he’s walked 11.3% of batters faced this year. No qualified pitcher reached that level in 2015. Pomeranz has still been able to succeed because of a .254 batting average on balls in play, meaning hits aren’t dropping in. Assuming Pomeranz is not the next Chris Young, he can’t maintain that BABIP. Pomeranz’s current skill set will lead to high traffic on the bases and early hooks. Pomeranz is also a 27-year-old who has never reached 150 pro innings in his career and only reached 120 once, in 2012. He’ll be in uncharted waters in late August, and has two career DL stints for shoulder injuries. By trading Pomeranz now, the Padres have a chance to cash in an unreliable asset, however tantalizing this year’s strikeout rate may be. Verdict: Shop him.
Steve Adams: Pomeranz has been terrific this season, but he’s already approaching his innings total from the 2015 season and has never delivered a full season with a starter’s workload. I can’t say with any confidence that I expect him to throw even 170 innings this season, so I can certainly see the argument to sell high at this juncture. However, big league teams likely have similar concerns about his ability to hold up over the life of a full season, and as such he’s probably not going to command an otherworldly return. With such a weak crop of starters on the open market this winter, the Padres would be better off hanging onto Pomeranz and hoping his previous shoulder and biceps issues don’t resurface. Marketing him coming off a full season of strong innings would yield a significantly better return than trading him after 80-100 innings, and if the offers still aren’t great, there’s always next summer, when he’ll have one and a half years of control. I typically advocate for teams in the Padres’ shoes to be willing to part with virtually any player on the roster, but Pomeranz’s value is still rising. Selling too soon in this case is a larger risk to me than the risk of an arm injury or a rapid decline in performance. Verdict: Retain him.
Jeff Todd: I voted in favor of the Braves trading Julio Teheran, but I’m going to edge in the other direction here. It goes without saying that there’s a point at which the Pads should be willing to cut a deal, but I’m generally predisposed to holding here. That opinion is due in no small part to the fact that I expect other organizations to be conservative in valuing Pomeranz — both as a rental and as a long-term asset. ERA estimators take a more conservative view of his good work to date than his bottom-line results would suggest. Indeed, Pomeranz is delivering a mediocre walk rate while benefiting from some good fortune in the BABIP department. And it’s no secret that he lacks a track record as a quality and durable starter. Given that uncertainty, I’d like to see San Diego chase the upside here. While many have noted that Pomeranz relies heavily on his curve, which is true, he’s also increasingly using a change-up that gives him a new weapon against righties. Thus far, he has limited opposite-handed hitters to a .193/.277/.338 slash, which is significantly better than he has fared historically. If he can prove that he’s a mid-3 ERA starter and stay healthy for a full year, he’ll be a sparkling trade piece over the winter — when the rest of the league will be picking over a barren market of starters. (Or, if contention feels within reach, the Pads can hold onto him as a cheap, quality rotation piece of their own.) There’s risk, to be sure, but I think the chance at big-time surplus value is worth it. This just isn’t the same thing as holding onto a hurler who has already full established himself. Verdict: Retain him.
Mark Polishuk: The Padres’ big moves of the 2014-15 offseason have proven to be such a misfire that part of me feels that the club should just totally start over and trade everyone of value (Pomeranz included) for young talent. Overall, however, I’m in the “keep Pomeranz” camp. It wasn’t too long ago that he was considered a top prospect, and it’s probably no surprise that he’s gotten better and better the further he’s gotten from Coors Field (a.k.a. the worst possible place for a young pitcher to break into the majors). Pomeranz has turned into an unexpected find for San Diego, and he comes at a bargain price for now and with substantial team control….unless another team goes overboard with an offer, the Padres should stand pat with him. Verdict: Retain him.
Charlie Wilmoth: I’d certainly consider trading Pomeranz if I were in A.J. Preller’s shoes, but would ultimately lean toward keeping him. Pomeranz isn’t eligible for free agency until after 2018, so there’s no rush to trade him. And while his performance thus far this season has been a bit better than his peripherals suggest, it hasn’t been wildly out of line either, and he should continue to perform well, health permitting. Next year’s crop of free agent starting pitchers is poor, so as long as Pomeranz stays healthy, the Padres should have further chances to reevaluate their situation and deal him later. Keeping him for now would also allow the Padres to prepare for the impending departures of Andrew Cashner (who can depart this winter) and Tyson Ross (who can leave after 2017). One could make some similar arguments about Julio Teheran, who I recently suggested the Braves should strongly consider trading, partially on the grounds that it’s risky for non-contending teams to hold on to established pitchers, who are at perpetual risk of injury. But Pomeranz is not as well established as a starter as Teheran, and therefore not as likely to net a big return. All things considered, then, the Padres should probably keep him for now. Verdict: Retain him.
Connor Byrne: The Padres are bottom dwellers now and they’re highly unlikely to contend before Pomeranz is scheduled for free agency at the end of the 2018 season, so it seems like a no-brainer to shop him this summer. Taking Pomeranz’s cheap 2016 price tag, remaining team control, performance and the paucity of front-end starters expected to go on the block over the next month into account, the Padres should be able to cash him in for a quality return. Plenty of playoff contenders need starters, so an inexpensive 27-year-old who’s top 25 in the majors in K/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP and infield fly rate (and gets an average amount of ground balls) should appeal to multiple clubs with rotation issues. There are questions with Pomeranz – durability, control problems and the fact that he’s succeeding with a knuckle curve as his primary pitch spring to mind – but it’s hard to believe those would scare off every starter-needy team from making a solid offer. If they do, then the Padres could retain Pomeranz and hope he continues increasing his value. There’s no harm in putting Pomeranz on the market prior to Aug. 1, though, and if rebuilding San Diego ultimately nets a package that helps augment its farm system, it would be a major win for the franchise. After acquiring Pomeranz for a pittance over the winter, the fact that the Padres are now in position to auction him off for a potentially appealing return is a boon for A.J. Preller – whose GM tenure is desperately in need of some positive results. Verdict: Shop him.
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With all of that said, let’s turn this one over to everyone else. Let the debate begin! (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)
Should the Padres trade Drew Pomeranz this summer?
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Yes! Sell high while he's healthy and throwing well. 73% (2,103)
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No way! Hold onto him. His value to the Padres and to other organizations will continue to grow. 27% (788)
Total votes: 2,891