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Cafardo On Managers, Shields, Lee, Otani

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Here’s the latest from the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo:

  • Cafardo asked a variety of MLB players, managers, coaches and front office personnel who the best managers in the game were and compiled his annual ranking of the 30 skippers. Topping the list is Joe Maddon of the Cubs, whose sabermetric strategies have “revolutionized” managing much in the way Tony La Russa’s tactics did a generation ago, according to Cafardo. Maddon is followed by Bruce Bochy of the Giants and Buck Showalter of the Orioles.
  • The Padres could potentially wait to trade James Shields until this summer’s deadline, Cafardo writes. While Shields’ first year in San Diego was not terrible, he might have spooked potential suitors with the 33 home runs he allowed last season. If he were to get off to a good start in 2016, that might rebuild his trade value.
  • Chris Lee will be one of the Orioles’ “must-see” pitchers this Spring, Cafardo writes, noting that Lee throws 97 MPH with a good changeup and slider. The Astros traded Lee to the Orioles last May for only a pair of international bonus spots. However good his stuff might be, Lee’s statistics don’t yet indicate that he’s a top prospect — in 145 innings last year, he only struck out 98 batters. It should perhaps be noted, though, that the Orioles promoted him very aggressively, and he was quite young for Double-A by the time he reached that level.
  • Nippon Ham Fighters pitcher Shohei Otani has been training with his team in Arizona, and as we noted yesterday, he’s been generating a lot of buzz. As Cafardo notes, the 22-year-old isn’t likely to be posted anytime soon, although US-based scouts feel he could be a star in the Majors, either as a hitter or a pitcher. “He can do both,” says a scout from the American League. “He’s going to have to make a choice. Either way he’s going to be an All-Star-caliber player as a hitter or pitcher.” With his triple-digit fastball, Otani will likely remain a pitcher.

International Notes: Otani, Padres, Ona, Morejon, Lazarito, Cards

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22-year-old righty Shohei Otani, a standout in Japan’s NPB, has been drawing plenty of attention lately as his Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters train in Arizona. It’s not hard to see why, as the power righty is coming off of a season in which he put up a 2.24 ERA over 160 2/3 innings, with 11.0 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9. Otani, who is also a productive hitter, says he’s always dreamed of playing in the majors, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom writes. But it’s not yet clear when that chance will arise. As Eric Longenhagen explains for ESPN.com, his current team has little incentive to post him now, given that it is capped at $20MM regardless of when it does so. But he does add that some believe the Fighters would allow him to depart if a request was made. If and when that occurs, you can expect a bidding frenzy unlike many others. As Ben Badler of Baseball America puts it on Twitter, he rates Otani higher than any pitching prospects currently in MLB organizations.

Here’s more from the broader baseball world:

  • The Padres are expected to make some noise on the international market, as Badler writes and Longenhagen also covers in the above-linked piece. San Diego appears to be the favorite to land two high-end Cuban talents: 19-year-old outfielder Jorge Ona and young southpaw Adrian Morejon. (The Cubs had been seen as having an edge on the latter, per Badler, but now seem to have made way for the Pads.) Per the report, the club is also primed to add a few significant July 2 prospects from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela.
  • GM A.J. Preller has long been known for his international attention and acumen, and it seems that he’s now putting that background to work as his organization looks to rebuild a lightly-regarded farm system. Indeed, the team appears to be giving quite a bit of attention to yet another young Cuban player, Lazaro “Lazarito” Armenteros, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune details. Like the Braves, San Diego would need to convince him to wait until the next July 2 period to avoid incurring penalties (for exceeding this year’s international spending caps) that would foul up other significant moves.
  • We’ve heard previously that the Friars are among the clubs expected to bust their budgets in the coming July 2 signing season, and the Cardinals appear set to join them, Badler reports (building upon a recent report that St. Louis was looking to be aggressive). He notes that there’s some interplay with the possibility that the organization could be penalized relating to the Astros computer breach scandal, which might cost draft picks (or, conceivably, international money). Two names to watch for St. Louis, per Badler, are top Venezuelan outfielder Victor Garcia and 17-year-old Cuban center fielder Jonatan Machado.
  • The recent MLB international prospect showcase had players from eight countries in attendance, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes, and there’s hope for further expansion in the future. Athletics GM David Forst says that the process of evaluating young international players has changed dramatically in recent years, with events like this featuring actual game action (rather than just workouts) providing a chance “to see these kids play in games against their peers and similar competition.”

Rosenthal Latest: O’s, White Sox, Ethier, Padres, A’s

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There’s plenty of trade chatter as camp approaches, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes in a column today. That’s already been made evident by the notable deal struck earlier this evening. As always, a full read is recommended, but here are some of the highlights of the post:

  • The Orioles would prefer to add Dexter Fowler after signing Yovani Gallardo — assuming they can get that deal done — says Rosenthal. But if that doesn’t work out for some reason, Baltimore’s backup plan would be to pursue a deal for Jay Bruce. The Reds appear to have realistic expectations with the veteran, who hasn’t been consistently productive in recent years and is owed $12.5MM this year (with a $13MM option for another season). Indeed, getting something done would likely require rather modest expectations. Though Bruce has shown quite a bit of talent over the years, and is still shy of thirty years of age, his track record over the past two seasons (.222/.288/.406) isn’t inspiring.
  • The White Sox could be a threat on Fowler or other free agent outfielders, per the report. Chicago seems to have more interest in adding there than in pursuing Ian Desmond, as the team likes its internal options at shortstop. The South Siders are pushing on multiple fronts and might well also line up a deal for Avisail Garcia if they make a significant addition. The willingness to be flexible and seek creative avenues to value could certainly serve the Sox well as the winter wraps up; the team already seems to have done well in securing Mat Latos at just $3MM.
  • Chicago’s interest in Andre Ethier has been overstated, says Rosenthal, but the Dodgers have indeed explored trade scenarios. It’s a complicated decision, as he notes, since Ethier has been plenty useful. Then there’s the fact that his contract status comes with some intricacies. Ethier is set to reach ten-and-five rights early in the year, and his vesting clause poses a bit of a barrier for possible suitors. From my perspective, it remains somewhat difficult to see another organization being willing to take on enough salary (and/or give back enough value) to make a deal work out. There’s $38MM still to go over two years, plus the threat of a reasonably attainable vesting clause, and that’s quite a bit for a player who will soon turn 34 and would come with expectations of being a solid regular rather than a difference maker.
  • While the Padres are still looking around for deals, discussing players like Matt Kemp and Derek Norris, near-term deals for those prominent names appear unlikely. Likewise, the Athletics have had talks involving Billy Butler, and may even have had one opportunity to deal the struggling DH. Butler is more expendable than ever with Khris Davis now in the fold, though that addition hardly makes a trade inevitable given how much Butler is owed. Oakland will presumably hope he can rebuild value by carrying momentum from a solid finish to an otherwise rough 2015.

NL West Notes: Sierra, Nomo, Rodney, Cashner, Clippard

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It’s been a month since the Dodgers reportedly struck an agreement with Cuban right-hander Yaisel Sierra, but the team has yet to announce the move. While Dodgers fans may be apprehensive about that silence, given what happened with Hisahshi Iwakuma earlier this offseason, Jon Heyman tweets that the Dodgers’ deal with Sierra remains “on track” with “only paperwork remaining.” Sierra was reportedly guaranteed between $30-35MM over a six-year term at the time of the agreement, and Heyman narrows the scope a bit, saying the final number will fall in the $30-31MM range.

Here’s more from the NL West…

  • The Padres announced yesterday that they’ve hired former Major League right-hander Hideo Nomo as an advisor to their baseball operations staff. “We are proud to welcome Hideo to the Padres organization,” general manager A.J. Preller said in a statement announcing the move. “His career as a Major League pitcher speaks for itself. His expertise and passion for baseball will be a significant asset to the Padres and I look forward to having his input going forward.” Nomo will assist in the club’s player development process but also in expanding the Padres’ reach in the Pacific Rim, per the release. Nomo joins Moises Alou, Trevor Hoffman and Mark Loretta as former big leaguers that are now working with the Friars’ baseball ops department in some capacity.
  • Padres ninth-inning hopeful Fernando Rodney has been dealing with a hamstring strain of late, but Preller believes that he’ll be a full go for Spring Training, tweets Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Padres gave Rodney a $2MM guarantee, and he’s perhaps the favorite to win their closer’s role following the trades of Craig Kimbrel and Joaquin Benoit, plus the move of Brandon Maurer back to the rotation.
  • Another somewhat minor but potentially impactful Padres note comes from MLB.com’s Corey Brock (on Twitter), who notes that new manager Andy Green has asked right-hander Andrew Cashner to make some mechanical fixes, which Cashner has embraced. The goal of the tweaks is to regain some sink on Cashner’s two-seam fastball, per Brock. Cashner still maintained a very solid ground-ball rate in 2015 (47.4 percent), but that number is down from the 52.5 percent mark he registered in 2013. How well Cashner incorporates those fixes will be worth keeping an eye on, as the 29-year-old stands to enter next year’s free agent class as one of the most appealing arms on the market.
  • Tyler Clippard told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro that he was somewhat surprised by the lack of interest he received on the free-agent market this offseason but is happy to have landed with the D-backs, whom he identified as a team on the rise earlier this offseason. “I felt like I would have gotten more offers,” Clippard said. “I thought there was going to be a little more activity early on in the offseason.” Clippard voiced excitement over joining a team that has “[taken] the steps in the direction of becoming a championship organization,” referencing the club’s additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller.

International Notes: Gurriel Bros., July 2 Spending

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Cuban star Yulieski Gurriel, who reportedly defected recently with younger brother Lourdes Gurriel, may have an easier path to free agency than had been expected. Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald reports that both brothers have moved across the border from the Dominican Republic to Haiti, which is a popular launching point for Cuban players seeking to make it to the majors. (Spanish language link.) Importantly, per the report, the 31-year-old infielder has already established Panamanian residency, which might well provide a faster route to the open market since some hurdles would already be cleared. Ebro provides other interesting details on the situation of the famed elder Gurriel brother, who is apparently looking to take his last chance at playing in the majors in his prime. Though he’ll soon turn 32, Gurriel is considered a prime talent and will create an interesting market situation — remember, quality infielders such as Ian Desmond, David Freese, and Juan Uribe remain unsigned — if and when he is deemed eligible to sign. The younger Lourdes, meanwhile, still appears likely to wait until October to ink an agreement, when he’ll be old enough to fall ouside of international signing restrictions.

Here are some more notes on the international market:

  • The Brewers, Cardinals, Phillies, and Rangers are expected to have an active year in the coming July 2 market, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports, though it’s not yet clear to what extent any of those teams will be willing to go past their pool allocation. We’ve already heard that the Braves, Nationals, and Padres are expected to make significant moves this summer, likely incurring maximum penalties for exceeding their international spending limits. With numerous big spenders on the sidelines after blowing past their own caps in prior years, there’s some opportunity for other clubs to step in and seek to sign their own slate of talented youngsters out of Latin America.
  • Sanchez goes on to discuss the market more generally, explaining that expectations are the non-Cuban market will produce a few significant bonuses (around $3MM to $4MM) with several other players receiving seven-figure paydays as well. He further notes that there figures to be quite a bit of competition as teams capped at $300K bonuses look to add lower-bonus names. The Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees are halfway through their two-year restricted periods, while the Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, and Royals are set to join them for the coming signing period.
  • There’s a notable showcase event being held today in Santo Domingo that will feature many of the players being targeted by the aforementioned teams, as Sanchez further reports. 59 prospects from seven nations will be there, including top Venezuelan youngster Kevin Maitan (who is favored to sign with the Braves). Other intriguing players are on hand, per Sanchez, including Mexican outfielder Tirso Ornelas, Panamanian righty Edisson Gonzalez, and Dominican outfielder Jeisson Rosario.

Lazaro Armenteros Weighing Offers

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Highly touted Cuban outfielder Lazaro Armenteros (aka “Lazarito”) will spend the next 24 hours mulling his options and is expected to decide on a team tomorrow, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Lazaro himself told Sanchez recently that he hoped to make a decision tomorrow, though he left open the possibility that the decision process could take longer. “I’m planning on making a decision on [Wednesday], but only God knows what will happen and when I will sign,” Armenteros said to Sanchez. “I’m not worried about it. I’m just waiting on the right opportunity.” The ballyhooed 16-year-old is drawing serious interest from nine clubs, according to Sanchez, including the Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Padres and Phillies.

Of that group, the Braves, Phillies and Padres would need to either exceed their 2015-16 international bonus pool in order to sign Lazarito or convince him to wait until the 2016-17 international signing period before signing. Both the Braves and Padres have been said to be planning on vastly overshooting their 2016-17 international pools, and Sanchez notes that the Phillies are in a similar boat, as they’re expected to have an impressive class of international signings next period as well. Signing Lazarito in the current period would prevent any of those three clubs from following through on those plans, as his bonus would force the teams into penalty territory and bar them from signing a player for more than $300K in the 2016-17 class (and again in the 2017-18 class, for that matter). Each team almost certainly has verbal agreements already in place with international amateurs, which would have to be broken in order to sign Armenteros.

Thus far in the 2015-16 signing period, the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals have incurred maximum penalties by overshooting their pools, meaning that the only cost to one of those four clubs would be purely financial. (Armenteros’ bonus plus a 100 percent luxury tax on the amount for which he signs.) Meanwhile, the Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Diamondbacks and Rays would all be ineligible to sign Armenteros after exceeding their 2014-15 bonus pools and incurring spending penalties on this year’s class and the 2016-17 class of international free agents.

Armenteros was declared a free agent by Major League Baseball a little over a month ago and has since hosted an open showcase in addition to private workouts for multiple clubs, the most recent of which came on Monday, per Sanchez (though he lists the team involved in that private workout as “undisclosed”). Armenteros has worked out as both a center fielder and corner outfielder, drawing praise for his power, speed and athleticism. Sanchez ranks him eighth among international prospects and second among those that have not already signed, although the current iteration of his rankings does not include the Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (who has not yet been declared a free agent) or any international free agent that is exempt from international bonus pools. In his scouting reports, Sanchez notes that there’s a wide variance in scouts’ opinions on Lazarito’s arm, and some scouts have questioned how his “muscular college-football-player body” will look as he continues to grow. Armenteros is already listed at 6’2″ and 205 pounds, and if he continues to add to that frame, a move to the corner outfield certainly seems like a reasonable outcome.

Padres To Sign Skip Schumaker To Minors Deal

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The Padres have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran utilityman Skip Schumaker, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Contract details have yet to be reported.

Schumaker hit the market when his option was declined by the Reds earlier in the offseason. That did not come as much of a surprise after two tough years in Cincinnati, in which he accumulated a .238/.297/.322 slash in 539 plate appearances.

There were more prosperous years before that, of course, as Schumaker enjoyed a nice run with the Cardinals and brief stop with the Dodgers before joining the Reds. In just under 3,000 MLB turns at bat over the 2007-13 campaigns, he carried a .288/.346/.375 batting line.

It isn’t hard to see the match-up here, as the Padres still have a fair bit of flexibility in settling upon a bench mix. Schumaker will presumably compete for a utility role in camp. He’s spent most of his career splitting time between second base and the outfield.

As he qualified as an Article XX(B) free agent, Schumaker will automatically receive the protections afforded such players — though he could also have negotiated other terms. Five days before the season begins, San Diego will have to decide whether to add him to its major league roster, pay him a $100K retention bonus, or cut him loose. If the bonus is paid, Schumaker would also pick up a June 1 opt-out date.

Sherman’s Latest: Cespedes, Ramirez, Castro, Sano

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Several teams are gambling on successful position changes for core players, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. While it’s not uncommon for a team to sign a player like Jason Heyward and shift him to a new position for a couple seasons, these transitions don’t always go swimmingly. Sherman examines some of the biggest names to watch this season, and we’ll touch upon a few of them here.

  • The Mets were wary about committing to Yoenis Cespedes in part because of his shaky history in center field. As Sherman writes, Cespedes’ top defensive attribute is his arm. However, in center, range tends to be more valuable than arm strength.
  • Last season, the Padres attempted to shift Wil Myers from an outfield corner to center. His experience could serve as a chilling example for Mets fans. When he wasn’t battling injury, Myers graded out as an atrocious center fielder. This season, San Diego plans to shift Myers to first base. It’s yet another position at which he has limited experience. Interestingly, Myers has moved all over the field in his professional career – he started out as a catching prospect, and he also has experience at third base.
  • Another failed outfielder moving to first base, Hanley Ramirez, will be critical to the Red Sox success this season. Ramirez was a disaster in left field, but there is hope he can be more focused and healthier in an infield role. David Ortiz occupies the designated hitter role. He’s expected to retire after the season, meaning Ramirez could be shifted to a bat-only role after 2016.
  • The Yankees are taking a gamble of their own on Starlin Castro. The former Cubs shortstop hit much better after a shift to second base, but his defense still graded out as below average. Unlike Cespedes, Myers, or Ramirez, Castro looked merely below average rather than nightmarish. The Yankees hope that more experience at the position and smoother actions can lead to defensive improvement in 2016.
  • In an attempt to manage their corner infield and designated hitter surplus, the Twins are going to try prospect slugger Miguel Sano in the outfield. Sano, a third baseman by trade, doesn’t have professional experience in the outfield. However, his shift will allow the club to start Sano, Joe Mauer, Byung-ho Park, and Trevor Plouffe. In my opinion, the Twins might have been smarter to move Plouffe into the outfield. He has experience as a utility man and an established bat. Sano will now need to learn a new position while adjusting to major league pitching.

Padres Notes: Rebuild, Drafting, Int’l Spending, Butler

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Here’s the latest on the Padres’ present and future…

  • In a wide-ranging interview with several members of Padres upper management, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears that the club isn’t looking at 2016 as a rebuilding year.  “[2015] was part of a journey, part of the plan. 2016 brings a next step with a new manager and a team we think is going to compete,” team president/CEO Mike Dee said.  The general refrain is that the Padres’ quieter offseason has been about bolstering the minor league ranks while also adding some Major League pieces “who are going to be a fit and complement the roster,” GM A.J. Preller said.  Part of the reason for optimism is, simply, the feeling that the Padres are bound to improve simply because pretty much everything went wrong last season.
  • Preller defended the decision to not trade Craig Kimbrel, Ian Kennedy or other pieces at last July’s deadline, noting that what was offered for those players last year wasn’t as valuable as what the Padres eventually got back from the Red Sox for Kimbrel, or the first-round compensation pick received when Kennedy signed with the Royals.  “There’s always a time and a place to make deals. It’s not as easy as saying, hey, we should’ve traded everyone at the trade deadline. Whether it’s adding or moving players, you’re trying to get value,” Preller said.
  • The Padres are widely expected to be heavy spenders in the 2016-17 international signing period that opens on July 2, and they also own six picks within the top 85 selections of the 2016 amateur draft.  This focus on lower-priced youngsters who (ideally) can develop into stars is a key part of San Diego’s strategy.  “What we feel strategically is, money spent on amateur draft signings is money well spent,” chief shareholder Peter Seidler tells Lin.  “It’s basically going to be almost certainly less than what Ian Kennedy gets for one year…If we get back out of this draft two players that go through our system and become All-Stars, obviously it’s money well spent.”
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney took a much less optimistic view of the Padres’ situation in a recent subscription-only column, arguing that the team’s offseason moves have all the look of a club that is embarking on a rebuild.  The Padres, in Olney’s view, have little choice but to start over after “last winter’s ill-fated binge” of spending.  Between adding expensive salaries and trading prospects, Olney hears from some rival evaluators that the Padres cost themselves hundreds of millions worth of value last offseason.  Olney suggests that the Padres should take advantage of the weak 2016-17 free agent class by offering their veterans (and really, anyone on the roster) in trades to amass young talent.
  • Right-handed pitching prospect Ryan Butler has been issued a 50-game suspension for violating the minor league drug policy, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.  This is Butler’s second positive test for a drug of abuse.  The 23-year-old Butler was a seventh-round draft pick for the Padres in 2014 and he cracked the Double-A level for the first time last season.  Butler was ranked 13th (by MLB.com) and 14th (by Baseball America) in recent rankings of the top prospects in San Diego’s minor league system, with MLB.com’s scouting report noting that Butler could be on the fast track to the majors if he was made a full-time reliever.

Padres Trade Despaigne To Orioles, Announce Rodney Deal

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The Orioles and Padres are in agreement on a trade that will send right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne to Baltimore in exchange for minor league right-hander Jean Cosme, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com had first reported that Cosme was headed to the O’s in exchange for a pitcher off San Diego’s Major League roster.

San Diego also announced the previously-reported signing of reliever Fernando Rodney. The veteran, late-inning righty needed a 40-man spot, and he’ll take over for the departing Despaigne.

Despaigne, 28, is coming off a tough season with the Padres in which he posted a sky-high 5.80 ERA with 4.9 K/9, 2.3 BB.9 and a 50.5 percent ground-ball rate in 125 1/3 innings. While the ERA is certainly uninspiring, metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA all pegged Despaigne more in the mid-4.00 range, with some of the ERA spike being attributed to an abnormally low number of runners stranded and a spike in his homer-to-flyball ratio. A year prior, Despaigne tossed 96 1/3 innings in his rookie season, compiling a considerably better 3.36 ERA with 6.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 52.5 percent ground-ball rate. Despaigne has experience both in the rotation and the bullpen and will give Baltimore another arm for its rotation mix or serve as a candidate to compete for a swingman job out of the bullpen. As Kubatko noted, Despaigne also has minor league options remaining (three of them, to be exact), so he can be sent down to Triple-A and stored at Norfolk as a depth piece in the event that an injury arises.

From the Padres’ vantage point, Despaigne probably became expendable when the team added Carlos Villanueva to serve as a swingman/long reliever. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune points out (on Twitter) that the trade also frees up a spot on the 40-man roster for Fernando Rodney, whose one-year deal with San Diego has yet to be announced. Cosme is a 19-year-old out of Puerto Rico that Baltimore selected in the 17th round of the 2014 draft. He’s posted a 4.73 ERA with 8.7 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 in 72 1/3 professional innings but did not rank among Baltimore’s Top 10 prospects this offseason, per Baseball America.

Of course, the broader move also ties in with the Rodney signing. He’ll join the Pads on an incentive-laden deal and look to rebound from a tough 2015 season. Soon to turn 39, Rodney’s ratios and results suffered last year. But he may have been somewhat unlucky in the volume of home runs he surrendered, and still brings a 95+ mph heater.

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