Coaching Notes: Maddux, Yankees, Gardenhire, Angels
The Nationals announced yesterday that they’ve hired recently departed Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux to fill the same role in their organization under new manager Dusty Baker. (MLB.com’s Bill Ladson first tweeted that the hire was likely.) In luring Maddux to D.C., the Nationals landed one of the game’s more respected coaches of any discipline, and they paid accordingly. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Maddux will become the highest-paid pitching coach in baseball with the Nationals, adding that the team’s pursuit of Maddux began as soon as the Rangers provided him the opportunity to listen to offers from other teams. Washington’s pursuit lasted more than two weeks, and Nightengale hears that the Nationals’ plan was to hire Maddux as pitching coach regardless of who was eventually named manager.
A few more coaching notes from around the league…
- The Yankees announced this week that 2015 assistant hitting coach Alan Cockrell has been promoted to hitting coach. Cockrell has previously served as Mariners’ hitting coach and was also the Rockies’ hitting coach during their 2007 World Series run. Meanwhile, recently retired Marcus Thames, who had a productive 2010 season as a part-time outfielder for the Yankees, has been named assistant hitting coach. Thames, still just 38, has spent the past three seasons as a hitting coach with three different Yankees’ minor league affiliates (Tampa, Trenton and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre).
- Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres have offered the bench coach position to former Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, who finished runner up to Andy Green in the team’s managerial search. Multiple sources told Lin of the offer, he notes, while another source said the Padres also offered the position to Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach. All of this seems to indicate that current bench coach Dave Roberts could indeed depart in 2016, though Lin hears that the organization isn’t shutting the door on keeping Roberts. Rather, they’d assign him a new coaching position if he were to return. Roberts has been interviewing for managerial gigs and is believed to be the favorite to land the Dodgers’ managerial position at this time. Gardenhire, for his part, was diplomatic and wouldn’t confirm the offer in a recent MLB Network Radio appearance, but he spoke highly of GM A.J. Preller (links to Twitter). “A.J. is a brilliant young man,” said Gardenhire. “He’s pretty cool, a baseball junkie, loves to go out and scout. I like those things.” Gardenhire called the San Diego group as a whole “unbelievable.”
- The Rangers will hire the Astros‘ Doug Brocail as their new pitching coach, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Brocail, a former big league right-hander, has served as Houston’s pitching coach previously and more recently been working in the team’s front office. As Grant notes, he’ll bring an analytic point of view to Texas, which will mesh with second-year manager Jeff Banister’s philosophies. Grant also reports that Triple-A pitching coach Brad Holman will be the Rangers’ bullpen coach in 2016.
- The Angels announced this week that former D-Backs pitching coach Charles Nagy has been hired as the club’s new pitching coach. The 48-year-old Nagy enjoyed a 14-year Major League career spent almost entirely in Cleveland, and he served as a special assistant in the Cleveland front office this past season. He was Arizona’s pitching coach from 2011-13.
- Additionally, the Angels announced that they’ve promoted Dave Hansen from assistant hitting coach to hitting coach and named Paul Sorrento assistant hitting coach. Each hitting instructor spent more than 10 years in the Majors. Hansen has previously been hitting coach for the Mariners and Dodgers, and he’s held his assistant role in Anaheim since 2014. Sorrento has been working in the Angels’ minor league system.
- The Brewers this week formally announced the previously reported hires of Derek Johnson as pitching coach and Pat Murphy as bench coach. Murphy, of course, was the Padres’ interim manager from June through season’s end and has a close relationship with Milwaukee skipper Craig Counsell, whom he coached in college.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/4/15
Some minor signings and outrights from around the game…
- The Athletics announced yesterday that catcher Carson Blair has been outrighted to Triple-A Nashville. Blair, who turned 26 after the season ended, made his big league debut with Oakland in 2015 and collected four hits in 31 at-bats over the course of 11 contests. The former Red Sox farmhand has a brilliant track record at the Double-A level but reached Triple-A for the first time this year and struggled there in addition to in the Majors. Blair is eligible for minor league free agency.
- The Padres have outrighted first baseman Cody Decker off the club’s 40-man roster, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (on Twitter). The 28-year-old went 0-for-11 in his Major League debut this past season but has a solid track record of hitting for power at the Triple-A level, as evidenced by his lifetime .257/.336/.501 batting line at the minor leagues’ top level.
- Baseball America’ Matt Eddy reported this week (via Twitter) that veteran catcher Brett Hayes has signed a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks, while utility man Steve Lombardozzi has latched on with the White Sox on a minors pact as well. The 31-year-old Hayes displayed good pop with the Indians in a limited sample this past season and is a lifetime .205/.250/.359 hitter in 464 big league plate appearances. Lombardozzi, 27, has spent most of his career with the Nationals and owns a .263/.294/.336 triple-slash in the Majors. Most of his time has come at second base, but he’s also played a fair bit of left field and has limited experience at third base in the Majors as well.
Padres Decline Cory Luebke’s Option
The Padres announced earlier today that they’ve declined their $7.5MM option on left-hander Cory Luebke in favor of a $1.75MM buyout. The news comes as no surprise, as Luebke hasn’t pitched since the 2012 season due to a pair of Tommy John surgeries that have derailed his once promising career. As Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune notes, Luebke’s most recent Tommy John comeback was halted when a flexor strain slowed him in Triple-A, and he eventually had surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow.
Luebke, though, has five-plus years of Major League service time and is therefore still under team control via arbitration. However, he’d have to make at least 80 percent of the $5.25MM that he earned in 2015, making it highly unlikely that the club would retain him via that process. It’s possible that Luebke could be passed through outright waivers, at which point his service time would afford him the right to elect free agency. San Diego could then work out a new minor league deal after that fact.
The Padres have interest in keeping Luebke around, it would seem, as MLB.com’s Corey Brock quotes GM A.J. Preller: “I think we’re going to talk to him about it and get his sense for it. As I explained to him, talking about our club and our needs, any left-handed pitching we’re going to be on the look for.” Luebke wasn’t surprised by the decision, he told Brock and Lin in their respective pieces, but the 30-year-old still hopes to return to the Padres for his age-31 season. “I still have a chance to do something special,” Luebke told Brock. “…I still believe there’s going to be a happy ending with all of this.”
Suffice it to say, this isn’t how the Padres expected Luebke’s four-year, $12MM contract to play out when they locked him up after a strong rookie season in 2011. Luebke logged a 3.29 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 in 139 2/3 innings that season, and the modest $12MM guarantee on his four-year pact would’ve bought out a pair of pre-arb seasons as well as his first two arbitration years while giving San Diego control of his final arb year at $7.5MM and his first free agent year at $10MM. Had Luebke remained healthy for even a couple of years, he likely could’ve delivered more than $12MM worth of value, but he’s pitched just 31 Major League innings since signing at the end of Spring Training 2012. While the deal seemed club-friendly at the time, it serves as a reminder that even contracts that look to favor the team on the surface can ultimately result in misses.
Joaquin Benoit, Adam Lind Available In Trade Talks
Though each player just had his option exercised yesterday, Padres right-hander Joaquin Benoit and Brewers first baseman Adam Lind are both available in trade talks right now, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney.
While the news isn’t necessarily unexpected, especially in Lind’s case, it could certainly have an impact on the offseason direction of multiple clubs. A team that acquires Lind in the near future — and it’s worth keeping in mind that he was traded from Toronto to Milwaukee on Nov. 1 last year, making a near-future deal plenty possible — would likely be plugging a hole at first base or designated hitter, thereby removing them from the free agent market at said positions. Clubs in possible need of first base/DH help could include the Pirates, Orioles, Rockies, Mariners, White Sox, Astros and A’s, depending on roster decisions made by each club early in the offseason.
Olney further tweets that catcher Jonathan Lucroy and closer Francisco Rodriguez “are available for trade talks” as well, as new Milwaukee GM David Stearns aims to make his team younger and build for the future. Any of the three Brewers players mentioned by Olney would have value to another team, with Lind controlled for one year at $8MM, Rodriguez owed $7.5MM this coming season (plus a $2MM buyout or $6MM club option for 2017) and Lucroy owed $4MM in 2016 (plus a $5.25MM club option for 2017).
As for Benoit, the Padres exercised a $7.5MM club option over him yesterday rather than paying a $1MM buyout. The 38-year-old is coming off three exceptionally strong seasons split between the Tigers and Padres, having worked to a 1.98 ERA with 9.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 41.7 percent ground-ball rate. Although metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA feel that Benoit has overperformed, he’s been able to sustain abnormally low BABIP levels and high strand rates, suggesting that there’s some degree of skill involved in those atypical marks. While there’s been a good deal of talk about the Padres potentially trading Craig Kimbrel this winter, and Benoit then closing for the team next season, it appears that Benoit will be marketed prior to any theoretical Kimbrel talks. A trade of Benoit wouldn’t rule out the possibility of dealing Kimbrel, of course, but moving both would create quite a bit of work for the Padres in the bullpen, as right-hander Shawn Kelley is also up for free agency this winter.
Padres Exercise Option On Benoit, Decline Barmes’ Option
7:42pm: Benoit’s option is actually for $7.5MM and carried a $1MM buyout as opposed to $8MM with a $1.5MM buyout, according to MLB.com’s Corey Brock. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that the buyout on the option could’ve escalated based on games finished, but the acquisition of Craig Kimbrel, of course, kept that from happening.
6:17pm: The Padres announced (Twitter link) that they’ve exercised their $8MM club option on right-hander Joaquin Benoit and declined their $2MM club option on Clint Barmes. Benoit’s option came with a $1.5MM buyout, meaning the decision essentially boiled down to whether or not the club valued him on a one-year, $6.5MM contract. Barmes will be paid a $200K buyout instead of the $2MM value of his option. I explored both situations recently while previewing the Padres’ offseason, noting that these outcomes were likely.
Benoit, 38, posted a stellar 2.34 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate in 65 1/3 innings for the Friars in 2015. Detractors will note that both his strikeout and walk rates trended in the wrong direction, and his velocity declined a bit, while ERA estimators like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all feel that Benoit’s ERA is due to rise into the mid-3.00s. However, Benoit’s been able to maintain better-than-average marks in BABIP and strand rate, helping him to continually outperform said metrics.
As I noted in the above-linked offseason outlook, by exercising Benoit’s option, the Padres are effectively raising their payroll north of their 2015 Opening Day mark despite the fact that they have quite a bit of work to do this winter. Between Benoit, Matt Kemp, James Shields, Jedd Gyorko, Melvin Upton and Alexi Amarista, the team already has $82.25MM committed to the 2016 payroll. That doesn’t include significant arbitration raises to Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Yonder Alonso, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks and league-minimum players to round out the roster, which could bring the total to as much as $112MM.
Barmes, on the other hand, batted .232/.281/.353 in 224 plate appearances with the Padres in 2015. Of course, offense has never been Barmes’ calling card; he’s been best-known for his defensive prowess at shortstop for much of his career. Defensive metrics such as Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating indicated that the 36-year-old’s glovework took a step backward this year, but his strong track record in that regard should lead to some interest on the free agent market this winter as Barmes prepares for his age-37 season.
Quick Hits: Mattingly, Royals, Mets, Murphy, Sveum
The Marlins have announced a press conference for tomorrow morning in which they’re expected to introduce manager Don Mattingly, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Mattingly, 54, has agreed to a four-year deal with Miami. The financial terms remain unknown. We profiled the hire more fully last week.
Here’s more from around the league:
- The Royals and Mets could look different when they meet to open the 2016 season, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Both clubs are expected to lose several key contributors to free agency including Alex Gordon, Ben Zobrist, Johnny Cueto, Greg Holland, Chris Young, Daniel Murphy, and Yoenis Cespedes. Three of those seven players were midseason mercenary acquisitions, but the Royals organization will certainly feel the loss of Gordon if he signs elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Mets are more likely to extend Murphy a qualifying offer after his huge NLCS performance.
- Much has been written about the Royals offensive approach, but more credit belongs to hitting coach Dale Sveum, writes David Laurila of FanGraphs. Sveum took over the role last May and transformed the team’s offensive profile. As you might expect, he’s a proponent of aggressive hitting with an emphasis on balls in play. When the Cubs fired Sveum in 2013, Royals manager Ned Yost “waited like two minutes” before offering him a job.
- The Padres have re-signed pitching coach Darren Balsley, reports MLB.com’s Corey Brock. Balsley was originally hired under Bruce Bochy‘s regime and has been with the franchise for 13 seasons. He considered following Bud Black to the Nationals, but he opted to remain in San Diego. “There were a lot of opportunities to go elsewhere, but I let it be known to [general manager A.J. Preller] that this is where I wanted to stay,” Balsley told Brock. The longtime Padres coach explained that while he wasn’t born in San Diego, he was raised in the city and grew up rooting for the team. “I can’t personally think of a better job. My alliance is to the team,” said Balsley. New Padres skipper Andy Green met with Balsley over the weekend, and Balsley explained to Brock that the two meshed quickly.
NL Notes: Young, Honeycutt, Green, Phillies
The Dodgers nearly signed pitcher Chris Young to a minor league deal last offseason, but he signed a $675K big-league deal with the Royals instead and is now set to start Game 4 of the World Series, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports notes. Young had an effective regular season and has been even better thus far in the playoffs. The extremely cheap signing has been a boon for the Royals and might have been one for the Dodgers as well, Morosi says, arguing that it’s strange the Royals were able to get him so cheaply after he pitched 165 innings with a 3.65 ERA in 2014. As Morosi notes, Young’s 86-MPH fastball likely had something to do with that. I’d add that Young’s unimpressive 2014 peripherals (5.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 22.3% ground ball rate) were also likely a factor. Here’s more from the National League.
- The Dodgers are negotiating with pitching coach Rick Honeycutt on a multi-year contract to keep him with the team, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes. There’s a possibility Honeycutt could join departing Dodgers manager Don Mattingly with the Marlins, but Honeycutt has been with the Dodgers through several managerial changes, and keeping him would help the organization maintain “continuity” for the team as it chooses Mattingly’s successor.
- The process of interviewing for a big-league managerial position is a grueling one, new Padres manager Andy Green tells Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “The first interview, I spent about 2 1/2 hours with one group, then about 2 1/2 hours with another group. They flew me back in, and I spent 14 hours, from 9 a.m. to 11 p.m. It was a relentless barrage of people,” says Green. “Then they flew in a couple days ago, A.J. [Preller] and Josh Stein, met my family. After my wife and kids went to bed, they fired off three more hours of questions. So they did their due diligence.” Green also shares his thoughts regarding dealing with expectations as a big-league manager, noting that building a winning team requires putting a process in place, and that having expectations in and of itself does little to help a team reach its goals.
- The Mets‘ rise is bad news for the Phillies, in that the Mets’ strong core of starting pitching is set to be around for awhile, Mike Sielski of the Inquirer writes. But the Phillies won’t have the same payroll restrictions the Mets have had, Sielski notes, so it shouldn’t take the Phillies as long as it took the Mets to turn what’s already a good Phillies collection of young talent into a winning team.
East Notes: Anthopoulos, Nats, Desmond, Montero, Cespedes, Gordon
Blue Jays ownership is to blame for the team’s surprising separation with former GM Alex Anthopoulos, argues Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star. New president Mark Shapiro “said he strongly disagreed with some of the deadline choices that sent prospects out,” Arthur reports, and indications are that he took the job in part because he is interested in increasing his involvement in personnel decisions. (The club made several swaps, most notable shipping out young pitching talent to acquire David Price and Troy Tulowitzki.) Rogers Communications, the club’s ownership group, initially offered Anthopoulos only a one-year contract with an option, says Arthur, and though the offer ultimately was bumped to a five-year term, that seemingly set the stage for the departure of Anthopoulos. Meanwhile, the new free agent executive took a conciliatory tack on his way out, saying, “I just didn’t feel like this was the right fit for me going forward.”
Here’s more from Toronto and some other eastern division clubs:
- Writing for the National Post, Andrew Stoeten takes rather a different perspective on the Blue Jays‘ front office changes. He suggests that it’s a valid criticism that Anthopoulos gave up too much young talent over the summer, even if the immediate results were good. More broadly, there’s no reason in particular to think Anthopoulos is uniquely irreplaceable, Stoeten argues.
- Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post takes a look at an interesting offseason for the Nationals. As he explains, the club could probably just add some bullpen pieces and a left-handed-hitting, center field-capable fourth outfielder and call it a day. That wouldn’t be perfect, but it should be workable enough, and it may be what the team had hoped and expected to be looking at heading into 2015. But a terribly disappointing campaign changes the equation somewhat. Svrluga says that the organization has pegged a $175MM overall annual operations budget, a number which includes player salaries but would also include additional spending in other areas (he cites various front office upgrades, though presumably it might also involve international spending or other speculative investments). With various big-money players are coming off of the books, Svrluga argues at least some of their salaries ought to be reallocated to new acquisitions. Upgrading over Wilson Ramos at catcher should be considered, he argues, and the team must decide whether to trade Yunel Escobar (possibly for bullpen help) and how much trust to put in Michael Taylor.
- Outgoing Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond figures to draw strong interest from the Mets, people around the game are telling Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (as part of a broader notes column). Heyman says he’s expecting a “robust” market for Desmond after a late-season return to form, and also notes the Mariners, Padres, White Sox, and Twins as plausible landing spots.
- It’s easy to forget about righty Rafael Montero given the success of the Mets‘ other arms, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that the team hasn’t. New York expects Montero to be ready to go this spring after dealing with shoulder issues all year, and Sherman notes that he’ll at least represent a solid depth piece in the near-term if he can stay healthy. Of course, with Zack Wheeler also set to return next summer and Steven Matz now looking like he’ll command a rotation spot for years to come, Montero could ultimately factor as a trade chip.
- Sherman also takes a crack at assessing the in-season changes to the future free agent market of Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The Red Sox offered him a five-year deal at about $75MM when he was with the club, says Sherman, and might have considered going to the Hunter Pence range (5/$90MM). Now, says Sherman, Cespedes’s future valuation has swung wildly. Before his mid-season swap to New York, he says, Cespedes was generally expected to receive a deal that might not have reached $100MM. The outfielder pushed his ceiling to the six-year, $150MM range after a blistering couple of months, per Sherman, but now some executives feel a tepid few weeks could drop him shy of nine figures. For what it’s worth, my own take is that Cespedes’s earning capacity has probably not moved quite so violently; while it’s obviously shifted, I’d have pegged him at a higher mid-season expectation and still believe he’ll easily clear the $100MM barrier this offseason.
- The Red Sox could be a surprise contender to add outfielder Alex Gordon via free agency, Sherman writes. While Boston could move forward with its internal options in the outfield, rival executives see a scenario where the team tries to utilize the resurgent Jackie Bradley Jr. as a trade piece to add a pitcher while simultaneously locking up Gordon. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe analyzes the concept, explaining that Fenway Park has seemed uniquely capable of undermining otherwise strong defenders’ abilities in left field. As Sherman suggests, Gordon could be added with the idea of deploying him in right, and Speier does add that Castillo looked good in limited action in left, so there’s some hypothetical plausibility but also some tough questions to be answered before pursuing that strategy.
Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres
After one of the most frenetic offseasons in recent history, the Padres entered the 2015 season with elevated expectations and a wildly different roster than the one inherited by first-year GM A.J. Preller. Unfortunately for the team, Preller’s high-profile acquisitions didn’t yield a postseason run or even a winning record.
Guaranteed Contracts
Matt Kemp, OF: $72MM through 2019 (Dodgers also owe Kemp $14MM through 2019)- James Shields, RHP: $65MM through 2018 (including buyout of 2019 option; Shields can opt out after 2016)
- Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B/SS: $33MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 option)
- Melvin Upton, OF: $31.9MM through 2017
- Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $25MM through 2017 (including buyout of 2018 option)
- Alexi Amarista, 2B/SS/3B/OF: $1.3MM through 2016
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR)
- Marc Rzepczynski (5.132) – $3.0MM
- Andrew Cashner (5.126) – $7.0MM
- Cory Luebke (5.033) – $5.25MM arbitration projection; has a $7.5MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout.
- Tyson Ross (4.126) – $10.0MM
- Yonder Alonso (4.116) – $2.5MM
- Derek Norris (3.102) – $3.4MM
- Will Middlebrooks (3.057) – $1.5MM
- Brett Wallace (3.003) – $1.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Rzepczynski, Luebke, Wallace
Free Agents
Contract Options
- Joaquin Benoit, RHP: $8MM club option with $1.5MM buyout
- Clint Barmes, SS: $2MM club option with $200K buyout
- Cory Luebke, LHP: $7.5MM club option with $1.75MM buyout
The Padres have crossed off the first item on their to-do list, and it probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that it was an out-of-the-box move. San Diego has tabbed 38-year-old Diamondbacks third base coach Andy Green as their new manager. While he comes with some notable minor league experience, this will be Green’s first taste of manging in the Majors.
As far as the contractual options facing the Padres, Cory Luebke’s is an easy call to decline, as the lefty hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2012 due to a pair of Tommy John surgeries. Clint Barmes’ option is cheap, but the Padres probably consider him redundant with Alexi Amarista projected to have a bench spot. Joaquin Benoit’s option is the toughest call. Metrics like FIP call for big regression, but he’s been able to routinely outperform them by sustaining abnormal BABIP marks and strand rates. While his walk and strikeout rates have each gone in the wrong direction, his velocity and swinging strike rate look good. This boils down to a one-year, $6.5MM decision on Benoit (he has a $1.5MM buyout). That seems reasonable, and even if the Padres don’t want him at that price, they could trade him. Picking up the option and paying $1.5MM to improve the return in a trade is a better outcome than simply buying him out.
Perhaps the biggest roadblock that option presents is that it would bring the 2016 payroll higher than their Opening Day mark from 2015, and there’s quite a bit of work to do around the diamond. An elevated payroll was always the expectation, as they received $18MM in 2015 salary relief in the Matt Kemp trade and also backloaded James Shields’ contract, but the baseball ops staff probably hoped there’d be less needs around the roster. Instead, they’ve already committed $71.9MM to the 2016 payroll, plus a projected $24.4MM for Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Yonder Alonso, Derek Norris and Will Middlebrooks in arbitration, and then the potential Benoit option and league-minimum salaries needed to fill out the roster.
That crowded payroll is one reason that the Padres were said to be open to moving some of their more established contributors at the non-waiver trade deadline, though that never came to fruition. Many of those talks will be revisited this winter. In an odd way, the Padres’ 2015-16 offseason will be defined perhaps more so by who they subtract from the organization than by who they add. It’s unclear how much flexibility they’ll have for roster additions without eliminating some 2016 payroll concerns.
Shields, Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton represent the three largest salaries that San Diego could shop, but nearly every position on the diamond and every slot in the rotation could be subject to trade talks. That sets up a fascinating offseason but also makes the already-difficult task of attempting to outline a team’s winter nearly impossible.
Shields is a particularly tough sell, as he was more good than great in his first first year with Padres. Though his strikeout rate soared, so too did his homer-to-flyball rate, resulting in an elevated ERA and FIP. If another club is convinced the HR/FB spike is a fluke, Shields is more appealing, but $21MM annually is steep. He isn’t the quintessential “albatross” contract — he’s still a useful starter — but it’s fair to say he qualifies as the type of player that’s often moved in swaps of “bad” contracts.
One oft-floated suggestion was a swap of Pablo Sandoval with the Red Sox, though I don’t see the merit in that for San Diego unless Boston sweetens the deal with young talent. Sandoval is owed more money and was one of the game’s worst all-around performers in 2015. The Padres needn’t be that desperate to move Shields, who was useful in 2015.
Upton — Melvin, that is — possesses an undesirable contract of his own, although the older of the two Uptons did quietly enjoy a bounceback year in 2015. He didn’t reach his peak Tampa Bay production levels, but Upton slashed .259/.327/.429 and made solid contributions on the basepaths and defense. The $31.9MM he’s owed lines up reasonably well with the money remaining on the contracts of Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza, though I’m not sure any of those pitchers’ teams would benefit from making such a deal. More realistic is that Upton will remain under contract as an overpriced fourth outfielder/platoon partner for defensive standout Travis Jankowski, which appears to be at least somewhat of a consideration.
The other significant salary the Padres could try to move is that of Kimbrel, but he, unlike Shields and Upton, would be in high demand. The Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Nationals and Cubs all stand out as plausible trade partners, and each of those clubs possesses plenty of young talent. If he’s to trade Kimbrel, Preller would have to decide if the goal is to add Major League talent to help the 2016 club or package Kimbrel with a less desirable contract (i.e. Shields, Upton) to clear salary. Trading him for prospects doesn’t align with the Padres’ recent tactics.
If the Padres are able to free up some payroll, shortstop will be their biggest priority. Ian Desmond tops the free agent market, but despite a down season, he strikes me as likely to command, at minimum, a four-year deal (five is also possible). He’s already been connected to the Padres, but an expensive free-agent miss wouldn’t look good for the front office coming off a disappointing 2015 season, and the Friars have multiple needs. If Preller is again to turn to the trade market, a highly speculative list of partners includes the Cubs (Javier Baez, Starlin Castro), Mariners (Ketel Marte, Brad Miller, Chris Taylor), Astros (Jed Lowrie), Rays (Nick Franklin), Red Sox (Deven Marrero) and possibly Twins (Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Jorge Polanco).
There are more in-house options, at least, in the rest of the infield. Jedd Gyorko filled in at short late in the 2015 season, but he shouldn’t be asked to play there again for defensive reasons. Gyorko can handle both second base and third base, as can the younger Cory Spangenberg. The former is a righty, the latter swings from the left side, and the club also has the switch-hitting Yangervis Solarte (and disappointing Will Middlebrooks) available at the hot corner. Given the needs elsewhere, it’s possible to imagine Preller relying on this group again in 2016, though a free agent target wouldn’t be out of the question. Ben Zobrist, as we at MLBTR find ourselves saying frequently in these Offseason Outlooks, certainly makes some sense given his versatility, though his age makes him particularly risky for San Diego, given the current uncertainty permeating their roster.
The Padres quickly abandoned the idea of Wil Myers in center field and moved him to first base, but that now presents its own issues. With both Myers and Yonder Alonso figuring to be healthy in 2016, the Padres have two players for that first base spot. The best option for Myers is probably to shift to left field in place of the departing Justin Upton. That creates somewhat of a logjam, though, as top prospect Hunter Renfroe is a corner outfielder, as is former Top 100 prospect Rymer Liriano. Both are nearly MLB-ready, though Preller hasn’t shown an aversion to trading prospects.
Alonso could be a desirable trade piece for many teams — Milwaukee, Baltimore (if Chris Davis leaves), Pittsburgh, to name a few — but he’s also one of the precious few lefty bats the Padres have. And while he doesn’t hit for power, his overall offensive contributions this year were positive. There’s a case to be made that San Diego should move Alonso, go for broke, and make a run at Davis to inject some power into the lineup, but that’s a long shot.
If Alonso is moved, a left-field decision arises: trust Renfroe/Liriano or seek an outside addition. Colby Rasmus would give the Padres a much-needed left-handed bat, as would Gerardo Parra. If Preller and L.A. counterpart Andrew Friedman want to connect for another significant swap, the Dodgers have Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier, who could each be moved for a bad contract. The player the Padres received from the Dodgers last winter, Matt Kemp, seems like he’ll definitively be stationed in right field, so there appears to be at least one certain spot in the lineup.
Center field, again, comes with question marks. Jankowski is a gifted defender but doesn’t project to hit much. He could be a fine fourth outfielder, but he’s probably miscast as a starter. Jankowski and Upton could platoon here, but free agents Dexter Fowler and Denard Span or a trade candidate like Jackie Bradley would help to balance out the lineup and provide better offense. Span, in particular, is an intriguing buy-low candidate, as his injury could suppress his value and make him a relative bargain. Although, that also enhances the risk of signing him. If handedness isn’t a concern, Marcell Ozuna makes sense.
Like nearly every other position on the diamond, the Padres have some trade options behind the plate. Derek Norris is slated to make $3.4MM, so moving him could free up a bit of money, and Austin Hedges represents an MLB-ready replacement. However, the team could flip the defensively gifted and well-regarded Hedges in a trade to fill another hole. Norris had his worst season at the plate in 2015, so they could be selling low, though on the other hand his throwing improved quite a bit. On a thin catching market, he’d draw interest, and Hedges is superior defensively.
The rotation offers a bit more certainty, but not much. Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner form a solid 1-2-3 atop the rotation, and young righty Colin Rea is a candidate for the back of the starting unit along with righty Odrisamer Despaigne and lefty Robbie Erlin. Ian Kennedy is set to depart as a free agent and should net the team a compensatory draft pick — I see little reason for him to accept a qualifying offer, as his durability and steady results should net him a more lucrative multi-year deal — though the team could look to retain him.
However, as previously mentioned, Shields is a definite trade candidate this winter, and the Padres fielded offers on both Ross and Cashner prior to the trade deadline. Cashner is only controlled through 2016, so it makes sense that he, in particular, could resurface in trade talks. The Cubs and Red Sox each showed interest in Ross, and the righty is the type of borderline-dominant arm that either team could pursue to bolster its rotation for at least two years, if not more via an extension. Names like Kyle Hendricks or Henry Owens could be part of a Ross trade (though not necessarily headliners), thereby giving San Diego an immediate, albeit lesser replacement. Cashner wouldn’t fetch as large of a haul, but he could bring back a big-league piece to help in a different area.
The Padres need to add at least one arm to the mix, possibly two if they move one of the current three rotation locks and don’t receive an immediate replacement in return. A lefty would help give opponents a bit of a different look, though adding quality innings should be an emphasis over pitcher handedness. One inexpensive possibility would be to try Brandon Maurer in the rotation again. The former Mariners prospect has blossomed into an excellent setup man but still deployed a three-pitch mix out of the ‘pen in 2015. Obviously, an innings limit would have to be a consideration.
Moving Maurer to the rotation could create a larger hole in the bullpen, where the Padres are also set to lose the underrated Shawn Kelley and could also non-tender Rzepczynski. Kevin Quackenbush and Nick Vincent could rejoin Benoit and Kimbrel (if neither is traded). Lefty Frank Garces battled his control in both the Majors and minors after a dominant Double-A campaign in 2014, so at least one cheap lefty relief option would be a nice pickup.
No first-year GM has ever made a splash as immediate and dramatic as Preller in 2014-15. Because no one could have reasonably predicted that level of activity, the Padres dominated headlines for much of the offseason, right up until their acquisition of Kimbrel on the eve of Opening Day. San Diego again mystified the baseball world by taking the opposite course of action this summer, standing pat despite the fact that they weren’t within reasonable striking distance of a postseason berth. The expectation here is that the Padres will again be in for an exceptionally active offseason, so much so that their course of action could play a key role in a number of other clubs’ winter gameplans as well.
Padres Name Andy Green Manager
5:42pm: The Padres have announced the hiring, making it official. It appears that Green has received a three-year deal, MLB.com’s Corey Brock tweets.
11:53am: Although the Padres were said to be down to Ron Gardenhire and Rick Sofield in their search for a new manager, it appears they’ve made a last-minute audible, as Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller is now reporting that Diamondbacks third base coach Andy Green will be San Diego’s new skipper (Twitter link). The Padres have issued a press release to inform the media that they’ll formally announce a new manager at 3pm PT. (San Diego did not name Green in the release). Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that Gardenhire was the runner-up to Green, who was offered the position late last night.
The 38-year-old Green will instantly become one of the youngest managers in baseball (though Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash is still younger). That’s not to say, however, that he comes without managerial experience. To the contrary, Green has four seasons of minor league managerial experience in spite of his young age. From 2011-14, he managed in the D-Backs’ minor league system, including a pair of postseason berths for the Double-A Mobile Bay Bears in 2013-14. Green was named Southern League Manager of the Year in each of those two seasons.
Green played parts of four seasons in the Major Leagues, with his fourth and final appearance coming in 2009 when he saw action in just four games with the Mets. A second baseman/third baseman by trade, Green appeared in 140 big league games and received 265 plate appearances, though he batted just .200/.282/.265 in that short time. The former 24th-round pick was a strong minor league hitter in parts of 10 seasons (.295/.375/.444) and also had a bit of experience in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball as well.
In addition to Green, Gardenhire and Sofield, the Padres are known to have interviewed D-Backs Triple-A manager Phil Nevin, former Major Leaguer and veteran winter ball manager Alex Cora, Dodgers bench coach Tim Wallach, former big league pitcher Tom Gordon, former Angels assistant GM Scott Servais (who was instead hired to become the new manager of the Mariners) and current Padres hitting coach Mark Kotsay.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.