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Free Agent Profile: Sergio Romo

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Sergio Romo is one of several big name relievers on the open market this winter.  Despite his hiccups in 2014, he’s expected to find an attractive offer from a club betting on a rebound in 2015.

Strengths/Pros  

In 2013, Romo looked like one of the top closers in the majors.   The right-hander pitched to a 2.54 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 65 appearances (52 to close out the game) and rightfully earned his first career All-Star selection.  In fact, while he found widespread recognition in 2013 as the Giants’ full-time closer, his body of work as a whole deserves a tip of the cap.  Across seven seasons, Romo has proven himself to be a strong late-inning reliever, as evidenced by his career 2.51 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9.  Simply put, he has a track record of being aggressive enough to make hitters whiff while keeping the walks way, way down. Sergio Romo (vertical)

Aside from strong strikeout numbers and even stronger walk numbers, Romo’s resume shows that he is more durable than a lot of his peers.  Since 2010, Romo has made no less than 64 appearances in a season.  It’s not hard to imagine that continuing in 2015 and beyond since Romo doesn’t throw a tendon-tearing 100 mph fastball.

This past season obviously wasn’t Romo’s best, but there’s reason to believe that he can return to his old form.  Romo’s HR/FB ratio of 13.0% in 2014 was the highest of his career and a regression towards his career average of 8.1% would go a long way towards tamping down his ERA.

Romo’s numbers haven’t been boosted by a home field advantage as his performance has pretty much been the same within the confines of AT&T Park as they have been on the road.  Romo hasn’t shown much of a platoon split either.  He has also been very strong through three postseason runs and has the experience of pitching in three World Series on his resume.

It should also be noted that the 31-year-old (32 by Opening Day) won’t be tied down by a qualifying offer this winter.  And, while the sabermetric community may roll its eyes at the mention of saves, Romo is just one year removed from a 38-save season.

Weaknesses/Cons  

Suffice to say, Romo didn’t have the kind of walk year he was hoping for.  His strikeout and walk numbers were more or less there (9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9) but his 3.72 ERA left much to be desired and his 3.40 xFIP only granted him so much slack.  Romo’s regular season efforts netted him a -0.3 WAR, the first negative posting of his career.  In general, Romo’s xFIP has been about a half-run higher than his ERA would indicate, though a career mark of 3.02 is hardly a poor number.

Romo’s velocity has dipped a bit over the years, and he can’t afford to lose much more off of his 88 mph average from 2014.  Among free agent right-handed relievers, Romo’s fastball had the slowest average.  In fact, his heater was the fifth-slowest among all qualified relief pitchers in 2014.

Of course, losing the closer’s mantle this summer could hurt Romo’s stock and perception.  He’ll likely be considered as a closing option by some clubs, but some may prefer him in a setup capacity.

Personal  

Romo has two sons and greatly enjoys spending the bulk of his off time with them.  He also has multiple charitable efforts in the state of California and is something of the gym rat.  Romo makes his offseason home in Phoenix, Arizona.

In a lot of ways Sergio patterns his parenting style after his own dad, Frank.  “If I become half the dad my dad is, I’ll be happy,” Romo told ESPN The Magazine’s Tim Keown.

As Keown detailed, Frank pushed Sergio to join the Navy out of high school but relented by giving him two years to pursue his baseball dream.  It’s safe to say that was a good call.  Romo turned into one of the stronger set-up men in MLB and in 2012, he got his chance to close when Brian Wilson suffered an unfortunate elbow injury and Santiago Casilla developed blisters.

“I have to admit, I wasn’t ready for what happened [in 2012],” Romo said. “I was afraid of a lot of the attention I got. I leaned on my teammates. I credit them for allowing me to be better than I think I really am. They brought the best out of me, and I didn’t have time to think about myself and my doubts. Many times I would think, ’Man, how can they have so much faith and I’m sitting here doubting myself?’”

Market  

Given his struggles in 2014, it’s hard to say whether the Giants would want to welcome back Romo, particularly if it would require a raise from his current $5.5MM salary.  In early May, the Giants were hoping to lock Romo up for the long term.  Now, that’s far from a given.  In the spring, Romo appeared poised to stand as the top free agent closer this winter.  Since then, Romo has arguably been leapfrogged by David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Luke Gregerson, and other available late-inning options.

Even if he’s not in the top-tier of eighth or ninth-inning guys, he’ll still get plenty of interest.  The Yankees, if they lose Robertson, might want to fortify their bullpen with a less expensive option like Romo.  Ditto for the Orioles and Andrew Miller, who Tim Dierkes sees fetching a four-year, $32MM deal.  Recently, our own Steve Adams suggested the Indians as a possible fit for the veteran and teams like the White Sox, Astros, Dodgers, and Red Sox could also get in the mix.  There will be tons of clubs on the lookout for bullpen arms, so agent Barry Meister figures field calls from a number of GMs.

Expected Contract

Romo is one of many notable bullpen arms available this winter and with so many options out there, he may not want to drag his feet in finding a deal.  Waiting until after the New Year could mean settling for something far less lucrative than what he’s hoping for today.  Still, if he’s intent on exploring the open market, he may have to wait for the dominoes to fall.

Romo will have more suitors once the runners-up for Robertson, Miller, and the like start to search out other options.  Then again, maybe it won’t come to that.  After topping the Royals, the afterglow of the Giants’ third World Series title in five years could help to facilitate a reunion early on in the process.

Ultimately, I see Romo signing a three-year, $21MM deal this offseason.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Outrighted: Quiroz, Bochy, Axford, Gomez, d’Arnaud, Richardson, Elmore

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According to the International League and Pacific Coast League transactions pages, the following outrights and related minor moves took place today:

  • The Giants have outrighted catcher Guillermo Quiroz and righty Brett Bochy. Quiroz, 32, saw just three MLB plate appearances this year and has only once made more than 100 trips to the plate in a single season despite seeing action in ten MLB campaigns. Bochy, son of manager Bruce, got his first taste of the bigs this year, allowing two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings.
  • After designating them for assignment recently, the Pirates have outrighted relievers John Axford and Jeanmar Gomez. Axford, 31, will look for a chance to bounce back after posting three seasons and 189 innings of 4.24 ERA work from the pen. Gomez, meanwhile, tossed 62 frames of 3.19 ERA ball after a solid 2013, but his peripherals do not quite back up the results.
  • Pittsburgh also outrighted utility infielder Chase d’Arnaud. The 27-year-old has fairly minimal MLB action, but owns a .251/.316/.370 line over 1,426 Triple-A plate appearances over parts of four seasons. He has spent his entire career in the Pirates organization.
  • The Yankees have outrighted outfielder Antoan Richardson after he racked up five stolen bases over the course of just 13 games (and 17 plate appearances) in New York. Richardson, 31, has been a consistent high-OBP and speed threat in the upper minors, but has yet to receive a real opportunity at the big league level.
  • Also outrighted was utilitman Jake Elmore of the Reds. Cincinnati claimed Elmore from the Athletics in early August. He ultimately saw just 12 plate appearances with the Reds, and is still looking for his first consistent MLB role at age 27.
  • Previously outrighted players Adam Moore of the Padres, Scott Elbert of the Dodgers, Matt McBride of the Rockies, and Evan Reed and Don Kelly of the Tigers have all elected free agency.

West Notes: Rangers, Kapler, Sabean

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Yesterday afternoon, the Rangers announced their coaching staff under new manager Jeff Banister, and it’s fairly similar to their old one. Dave Magadan, who interviewed for the Yankees’ hitting coach position already this fall, will return to the Rangers as their hitting coach. Mike Maddux, who appeared to be a managerial candidate, will return as pitching coach. Steve Buechele, who got good reviews as the manager at Triple-A Round Rock and who interviewed for both the Rangers and Astros managerial jobs, will serve as the Rangers’ big-league bench coach, replacing Tim Bogar. Hector Ortiz will serve as the first base coach, with Andy Hawkins as the bullpen coach. Here are more notes from around the West divisions.

  • The Dodgers are considering hiring FOX Sports analyst Gabe Kapler in a front office role, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. Kapler played under new Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman for two seasons in Tampa Bay, and Crasnick notes that Friedman “is a Kapler fan.”
  • Giants GM Brian Sabean isn’t looking for attention, but he’s quietly gotten strong results in his 18 years on the job, MLB.com’s Tracy Ringolsby writes. During Sabean’s tenure, the Giants have the third-best record in the National League, behind the Braves and Cardinals. They have also, of course, won three World Series in that time.

West Notes: Sandoval, Lewis, Ethier, Angels

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Coming off another World Series win with the Giants, free agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval is seeking a nine-figure contract, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman writes. Sandoval would, however, like to remain in San Francisco. “He loves the city. He loves the team. He loves the fans,” says agent Gustavo Vazquez. “And he wants to stay.” Sandoval himself echoes those sentiments earlier today, and the Giants want him to return as well. The Red Sox are also expected to be among the teams bidding for Sandoval. Here’s more from the West divisions.

  • Rangers GM Jon Daniels says starting pitcher Colby Lewis will test the free agent market, FOX Sports Southwest’s Anthony Andro tweets. The Rangers had previously indicated they were interested in re-signing Lewis, even though he posted a 5.18 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 170 1/3 innings in 2014 after missing the previous season due to elbow and hip injuries.
  • The Dodgers ought to consider keeping Andre Ethier, Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times writes. Joc Pederson’s performance in a small sample down the stretch might indicate he’s not ready to start, Dilbeck argues, and Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp might not be able to stay healthy. So the Dodgers might as well keep Ethier, particularly if the alternative is eating tens of millions of dollars in salary and not getting much back in return.
  • The Angels are likely to have a quiet offseason, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. They don’t have many free agents departing and not many clear needs, and since they want to stay under the luxury tax threshold, they don’t have much money to spend anyway. They do want bullpen and rotation depth, and a report earlier today indicated one way they might try to get it is by trading Howie Kendrick or David Freese.

Free Agent Profile: Jake Peavy

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What a difference a few months can make. For Jake Peavy, a former ace turned would-be trusty veteran, a trade deadline deal to the Giants has changed perceptions and, perhaps, his market. Approaching free agency for the first time entering his age-34 season, Peavy now looks to be one of the more intriguing players to watch. (Of course, all eyes will be on him tonight as he takes the hill looking to clinch the World Series.)

Pros/Strengths

Twelve regular season starts with the Giants late this year yielded remarkable results: a 2.12 ERA and 3.03 FIP over 78 2/3 frames. Three more post-season outings have resulted in a 3.68 earned run mark across 14 2/3 innings, with time left for more positive impressions. With a constantly evolving pitch mix and approach, as he explained recently to Eno Sarris of Fangraphs, Peavy may have found an edge in the constantly evolving battle between pitcher and hitter.

MLB: World Series-San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals

Though Peavy is no longer the strikeout threat he once was, he seems to have stabilized in the seven to seven-and-a-half strikeouts per nine range. And he continues to reliably post walk rates below three per nine innings. Though he is not a heavy groundball pitcher, Peavy has generally maintained a BABIP-against at or below .290.

Then, of course, there is Peavy’s impressive pedigree. From about 2004 through 2008, Peavy was one of the best starters in the game, and he has had excellent full-season results as recently as 2012 (3.37 ERA over 219 innings).

Peavy is often cited as a trustworthy veteran who is a positive clubhouse member. An intense competitor on the hill, the righty is certainly the type of player who holds appeal both to veteran-laden contenders and young teams looking to put a role model in place.

Cons/Weaknesses

His late run with San Francisco aside, Peavy has struggled mightily at times in recent years. He put up a 4.17 ERA in 2013 and allowed 4.72 earned per nine with the Red Sox to start the year in 2014. Neither did peripherals paint a much rosier picture, with ERA estimators pegging Peavy as a back-of-the-rotation option at best.

And it is not as if this were an isolated downturn. Sandwiching his solid work in 2012, Peavy had been an average or worse starter over the 2009-11 stretch. That decline can be traced, in part, to steady downticks in Peavy’s average fastball velocity. After working in the mid-90s earlier in his career, Peavy has not even averaged 91 mph since 2010 and just saw his average heater drop into the eighties for the first time.

Declining strikeout rates are one result; in his solid stretch with the Giants, Peavy has maintained only a 6.6 K/9 rate that falls shy of any of his full-season averages. On the year, he struck out just 7.0 per nine, his worst-ever rate. More tellingly, perhaps, Peavy’s K-BB% fell to 11.1%, far and away the worst mark his his 13-year career.

Neither has Peavy been a model of health. He has failed to reach 150 innings in four of the last six seasons. Shoulder and rotator cuff injuries are among his maladies, along with a more recent ribcage fracture. He also missed time due to an ankle injury and, further back, elbow strains. (Peavy has never undergone Tommy John surgery.)

Personal

Often described as a family man, Peavy and his long-time wife Katie have three sons. A native of Alabama, Peavy makes his permanent residence in his home state. Over the years, of course, he has moved from coast to coast, though Peavy has never chosen his own destination (aside from agreeing to extensions with the Padres and White Sox in advance of free agency).

When he is away from the ballpark, according to this aggregated profile, Peavy prefers to spend time in the outdoors. His family lives in a cabin on a substantial spread of land, and he hunts and fishes in his spare time. Peavy also plays the guitar and is a practicing Christian.

Market

In a market loaded with mid-level starters, Peavy occupies a somewhat unique place. He is the oldest of that group aside from Hiroki Kuroda, who is not expected to test interest broadly. In that respect, he probably stands alone to some extent as a solid veteran who can (theoretically, at least) be had on a somewhat shorter commitment.

A client of CAA Sports, Peavy could hold appeal to a variety of clubs that may or may not be as interested in other non-premium starters. More specifically, it is certainly possible to imagine the Giants being interested in a reunion, and the White Sox are another former club that could show interest in a shorter-term arrangement. Otherwise, the Cardinals, Angels, Rangers, Braves, D’backs, and Cubs all could make some degree of sense.

Peavy says he has interest in ending up in the same place as former Red Sox teammate Jon Lester, saying that “there’s a package deal out there for any team.” Choosing a landing spot based more on personal preferences — including, perhaps, re-uniting with Lester or other former teammates — than maximum contract would not be a surprise for Peavy. He said back in 2005 that “money is not why I’m pitching” and backed that up recently when he signed a reasonable extension with the White Sox rather than hitting the market.

Expected Contract

Though some have suggested that Peavy may have pitched his way into a three-year deal in recent months, a two-year contract still seems the likelier outcome — especially if Peavy prioritizes finding a home that suits him for non-financial reasons. Peavy should easily top the two-year, ~$22-23MM contracts given to several veterans last year, and could land a deal on the model of Ryan Dempster’s two-year, $26.5MM pact. Updating that contract for inflation, and accounting for a value boost after Peavy’s success in San Francisco, I predict that he will ultimately fall just shy of his last contract and sign for two years and $28MM.

Gammons’ Latest: Sandoval, Hochevar, Stanton

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There have been several memorable performances this postseason, “but Madison Bumgarner has not only helped write this October’s script, he wins the Oscar for best actor,” Peter Gammons writes.  Bumgarner’s phenomenal work in the playoffs (only six earned runs allowed in 47 2/3 IP) has already earned him a spot in baseball history, though the Royals still have a chance to get the last word in the World Series.  In a separate piece on his Gammons Daily website, Gammons shares a few news items…

  • A member of the Giants ownership group “said there is a swelling thinking” that the Red Sox will sign Pablo Sandoval as a free agent this winter.  “The bigger the stage, the better he plays.  He would love Boston,” the Giants official said.  San Francisco is no small stage itself, of course, and rival general managers tell Gammons that they think the Giants will re-sign their star third baseman.
  • One GM predicts that Luke Hochevar “will be a big item this winter” in free agency.  The former No. 1 overall draft pick struggled as a starter in the majors but had a fantastic season out of the Royals bullpen in 2013.  Hochevar missed all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and, if healthy, would be a nice under-the-radar pickup for teams looking for relief help.
  • Gammons believes the Marlins can’t trade Giancarlo Stanton before his contract expires at the end of the 2016 season.  “If they do, owner Jeffrey Loria’s credibility will take such a further hit that he may have to sell for the Marlins to ever be accepted,” Gammons writes.  I’m not necessarily sure this would be the case — if Stanton makes it clear he won’t sign an extension with the club, Miami fans obviously wouldn’t be happy, but they’d understand that a trade would be a logical move for the Marlins to get a big return.

NL Notes: Sandoval, Sabean, Martin, Stanton

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The World Series continues in San Francisco tonight as the Legend of Panda continues to grow. Here’s the latest on Pablo Sandoval and the rest of the National League:

  • Without an obvious internal replacement at third base, it’s hard to imagine the Giants will let Sandoval leave even if he asks for a deal similar to the one Hunter Pence received, writes Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Pence netted a five-year, $90MM deal from the Giants and they have shown a willingness to pay big dollars in order to keep their most identifiable players.
  • The San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman also isn’t as quick to dismiss Sandoval returning to San Francisco tweeting money flows more freely when a franchise reaches the World Series.
  • Tyler Kepner of the New York Times profiles Giants GM Brian Sabean, who answers those who label him as espousing an “old school” philosophy. “When they hear ’old school,’ they don’t understand that ’old school’ is trying to get any and every edge,” Sabean told Kepner. “We’re all looking for the misfit toys. We’re all looking for the guys we can plug in that were overlooked because sometimes, you know what, that’s what you’re down to because your payroll’s your payroll. There’s not enough players to go around, so you better be creative.“
  • The Pirates have a delicate balancing act in weighing whether to re-sign Russell Martin, opines Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. The Pirates’ dilemma is whether a small-market team should make the financial commitment to retain a signature player and a clubhouse leader or avoid the risk of extending a catcher who might decline significantly over the course of his next contract.
  • Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton provided reporters, including Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown, with an update on his recovery from being hit in the face with a pitch in September. “I feel great,” Stanton said after being honored as the NL recipient of the Hank Aaron Award. “It’s a lot better than I thought it was going to be.” Stanton did acknowledge he feels an occasional jab of pain when he chews food and has yet to swing a bat. When he does, will likely wear a face guard.

East Notes: A-Rod, Sandoval, Petit, Rays

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Alex Rodriguez is gearing up to re-join the Yankees in 2015 and Joel Sherman of the New York Post thinks the embattled slugger should take a lesson from Manny Ramirez.  Ramirez hurt his reputation with his own PED troubles but has carved out a second act for himself as a player/coach for the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate.  Still, Sherman is skeptical that A-Rod can earn redemption like Manny has.  Here’s more from the AL and NL East…

  • Pablo Sandoval would be a strong fit for the Red Sox, opines Scott Lauber of The Boston Herald.  Boston is in the market for an upgrade at third base and balance for their right-handed heavy lineup.  The 28-year-old switch hitter turned down a three-year, $40MM extension offer from the Giants earlier this year and right now that appears to have been a smart decision.
  • Years ago, the Mets were unsure of exactly what they had in right-hander Yusmeiro Petit, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  “We couldn’t get a consensus,” former Mets assistant GM Jim Duquette said. “He is getting everyone out, but doing it with an 88-90 mph fastball. We called it an invisi-ball. Is he a No. 1, a No. 2 or just another guy?”  Petit wound up going to the Marlins in the 2005 Carlos Delgado trade and today he has found a home with the Giants where he is now a postseason hero.
  • Rays GM Matt Silverman is talking with his staff and players to determine the characteristics to look for in the club’s next manager, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “The first step is identifying the type of manager that we want,” Silverman said Saturday. “And from that we will begin generating names we think might match that description.”  Topkin checked in with several Rays players to see what they want in their new skipper.

Quick Hits: Astros, Towers

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Here’s the latest off-the-field notes from around the league, as the Royals nurse a misbegotten 4-1 lead.

  • The Astros have added former Cardinals scout Charlie Gonzalez as a special assistant, reports Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. Gonzalez is not the first Cardinals employee to follow GM Jeff Luhnow to Houston. Drellich lists pitching coach Brent Strom, amateur scouting director Mike Elias and pitching coordinator Dyar Miller as others who moved south with Luhnow. Gonzalez may help to fill recently vacated positions left by Dave Post (now with the Padres) and Marc Russo (with the Braves).
  • Assistant hitting coach is the final coaching position the Astros must fill, writes Drellich in a separate article. One name to watch is incumbent Ralph Dickenson. He’s expected to remain with the organization if he is not chosen for the job.
  • Bruce Bochy and Kevin Towers are long time friends, but don’t expect a reunion in San Francisco, tweets Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Understandably, the club is happy with the current management team.

NL West Notes: Sandoval, Minniti, Geaney, Rockies

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The Giants, unsurprisingly, plan to make third baseman Pablo Sandoval a qualifying offer after the season, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Heyman notes that the two sides have not engaged in any extension discussions since the spring, which would seem to indicate that a late-breaking deal is rather unlikely — particularly since both team and player are rather occupied at the moment. All said, it seems that Sandoval will test the market, where he will be among the most hotly-pursued free agents.

As the rest of the division looks to emulate San Francisco’s success, here are some non-player moves of note from the NL West:

  • In yet another round of important front office additions, the Diamondbacks have announced the hiring of former Nationals assistant GM Bryan Minniti to the AGM post. Also joining the mix in Arizona is Mike Russell, formerly a scout with the Tigers, who has been named Special Assistant to the Senior VP of Baseball Operations and Coordinator of Professional Scouting.
  • The Padres announced today that they have hired Sam Geaney away from the Athletics to serve as San Diego’s new director of player development. According to the press release, Geaney, who had been serving as Oakland’s coordinator of international scouting, will be “responsible for managing all of the organization’s player development efforts, including working with roving coordinators as well as managers and coaches at each of the club’s affiliates.” Geaney graduated from the University of California Cal Berkeley in 2007 and had been with the A’s since joining the organization as an intern in 2006.
  • The Rockies have fired pitching coach Jim Wright and bullpen coach Bo McLaughlin, the team announced today. Colorado will immediately begin a search to fill both positions, the team added. As the Denver Post’s Nick Groke writes, Wright has been pitching coach for three seasons and was initially a co-pitching coach with McLaughlin before the latter assumed the role of bullpen coach in 2013. The Rockies’ 4.83 team ERA over the past three seasons is the worst in baseball, as is their collective 4.33 FIP.
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