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The Best Remaining Fits For Cody Bellinger

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For the past six weeks, the offseason has centered on three individuals: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. With the first two having found new homes and Yamamoto expected to choose his team within a week or two, there’s likely to be greater attention placed on Cody Bellinger.

MLBTR’s #2 free agent entering the winter, Bellinger has had a quiet offseason since declining his end of a mutual option and rejecting a qualifying offer from the Cubs. Early reports tied the lefty-hitting center fielder to the Yankees, Giants and Blue Jays. The incumbents have some amount of interest in a reunion, although the presence of highly-regarded rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong gives them leverage to pass on what’s surely still a lofty asking price.

Last week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote that Bellinger’s camp at the Boras Corporation were seeking to reach or surpass $200MM. Yet it’s fair to presume that the former MVP’s market has dwindled over the past month. Along with Soto, the Yankees acquired Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham to join Aaron Judge in the outfield. San Francisco signed Jung Hoo Lee to play center field instead. That knocks out the two teams widely perceived as the favorites. (At the beginning of the offseason, every MLBTR staffer pegged the Giants or Yankees as Bellinger’s landing spot in our Free Agent prediction contest.)

Where does that leave things for the two-time All-Star?

Likeliest Fits

  • Angels: It’s difficult to identify exactly where the Angels go from here. Los Angeles has thus far limited its offseason activity to a trio of low-cost middle relief additions (Luis García, Adam Cimber and Adam Kolarek). Ohtani was their top priority. After losing him, they’ll need to determine how aggressively to add to a roster that won only 73 games despite his MVP performance. GM Perry Minasian and new skipper Ron Washington have been clear they’re not about to rebuild. Bringing in a front-line starting pitcher appears the top priority, but they’ll also need to address a lineup that ranked 16th in runs and lost a .304/.412/.654 hitter. Bellinger would give the Angels an option to cover center field if Mike Trout needs any time on the injured list. He’d push Mickey Moniak to a fourth outfield role and could take some of the available DH at-bats. He’s also a marquee name who starred in Los Angeles, which could hold appeal to owner Arte Moreno.
  • Blue Jays: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Jays looked like the top suitor for Bellinger. It’s not hard to see why. The Jays came up empty on their pursuits of Ohtani and Soto. While no one would consider Bellinger the same kind of upgrade, Toronto still has ample short-term payroll space and a need for a left-handed bat. They’re also without a clear answer in center field after Kevin Kiermaier hit free agency. The Jays could sign a corner outfielder and bump Daulton Varsho to center (or simply try to re-sign Kiermaier), but Bellinger is the best all-around position player on the open market.
  • Cubs: Bellinger was among the Cubs’ most valuable players a season ago. While they may have initially viewed him as a one-year stopgap to Crow-Armstrong, there’s an argument for bringing him back. The Cubs don’t have a clear option at first base, where Bellinger is a plus defender. His ability to play all three outfield spots would afford the organization the flexibility to start Crow-Armstrong in Triple-A (where he struck out at a concerning rate in 34 games last season) without needing to rely on journeyman Mike Tauchman to maintain his surprisingly strong form from 2023. Even if Tauchman and/or Crow-Armstrong prove deserving of everyday playing time, the Cubs could rotate Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki through designated hitter to keep their outfield fresh.

Longer Shots

  • Mets: New York could upgrade over either Starling Marte or DJ Stewart in the corner outfield. There’s room for Bellinger to join Brandon Nimmo as a long-term outfield investment, but it doesn’t seem that’s how the front office is approaching this winter. The Mets are in on Yamamoto but appear to view him as an exceptional case in what’d otherwise be a relatively quiet offseason as they focus primarily on 2025.
  • Nationals: While Washington isn’t an immediate contender, they could make a legitimate push for the playoffs by the ’25 season. Bellinger, who turned 28 in July, would still project as a productive player during that window. The Nats have top outfield prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood looming, but only Lane Thomas should have a short-term spot locked down. The Nationals struck early on the Jayson Werth signing to accelerate a rebuild a decade ago. There’d be some sense in doing that again, but they’ve been fairly quiet in recent offseasons and still have organizational uncertainty regarding their local TV deal as part of the contentious MASN arrangement with the Orioles.
  • Phillies: Philadelphia is involved on Yamamoto, suggesting an ability to stretch the budget for the right player. Whether Bellinger qualifies isn’t clear. Brandon Marsh is a solid center field option, while the Phils have Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache as options for the corner opposite Nick Castellanos. It’s not a terrible outfield, but it’s also perhaps the weakest area of an otherwise excellent roster. The Phils haven’t shied away from pursuing star talent under owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski.

Payroll Questions

  • Mariners: Seattle is likely to bring in at least one outfielder to join Julio Rodríguez and a group that otherwise consists of players like Dominic Canzone, Taylor Trammell and Sam Haggerty. Bellinger fits on the roster, but the M’s have thus far sliced payroll amidst uncertainty about the revenues from their local TV deal with Root Sports. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto hasn’t signed a free agent hitter to a multi-year contract in his eight-plus years leading the Seattle front office. Breaking that streak with Bellinger would be a massive shift in operating procedure.
  • Padres: Much of what applies to the Mariners can be said about the Padres. They want to compete after a disappointing playoff miss. They need outfield help to do so. Yet they’re also facing questions about their broadcasting deal and have only cut payroll so far this offseason. With Lee’s six-year, $113MM deal pushing beyond their spending range, it’s hard to see how they could make Bellinger work.
  • Rangers: The defending World Series winners could ostensibly make room for Bellinger, perhaps by trading incumbent center fielder Leody Taveras to address an injury-plagued rotation. GM Chris Young has suggested they’re unlikely to make the kind of free agent splash they have in prior offseasons, though, so it’s far likelier they stick with an internal group of Adolis García, Taveras and Evan Carter while awaiting the arrival of top prospect Wyatt Langford.

Julio Rodríguez Tops 2023 Pre-Arb Bonus Pool

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Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez will receive $1,865,349 from the $50MM bonus pool for pre-arbitration players, the highest of the 2023 recipients, per a report from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. The AP later released a full list of bonus recipients.

A notable new element of the current collective bargaining agreement is that $50MM is to be taken from central revenues annually and distributed to players that have not yet qualified for arbitration. Certain portions of the money are to be based on awards voting:

  • Rookie of the Year: $750K for first place, $500K for second place
  • MVP and Cy Young: $2.5MM for first place, $1.75MM for second place, $1.5MM for third place, $1MM for fourth or fifth place
  • All-MLB: $1MM for being named “First Team,” $500K for being named “Second Team”

As Blum highlights today, a player is eligible to receive the bonus for one of those achievements per year, earning only the highest amount. Rodríguez finished fourth in American League MVP voting, meaning he got $1MM for that, which accounted for the majority of his payout. After the bonuses, the remainder of the pool is divided on a percentage basis among the top 100 players based on the joint MLB/MLBPA-created version of WAR.

Players are still eligible even if they have signed extensions, as long as they would have been pre-arb without signing such a deal. Rodríguez and the Mariners signed a convoluted extension towards the end of his rookie season in 2022 but he’s only at two years of service time now. Since he would have been pre-arb without that extension, he was able to top this year’s pool.

The following 10 players got more than $1MM:

Last year, Dylan Cease got the biggest slice of the 2022 pie, taking home $2,457,426.

Mariners Reportedly Interested In Rhys Hoskins

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The Mariners have interest in first baseman Rhys Hoskins, according to a report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Hoskins is considered unlikely to return to his longtime club in Philadelphia after the Phillies shifted Bryce Harper to first base full time earlier this offseason.

Hoskins, 31 in March, missed the entire 2023 season due to a torn ACL but was one of the league’s premiere power hitters since his first full-season as a major leaguer back in 2018. Over that time, Hoskins’s 130 homers tied with slugger J.D. Martinez for 15th among all MLB hitters while his isolated slugging ranks 24th, just below the likes of Giancarlo Stanton and Matt Olson while clocking in just ahead of players like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto.

That sort of prodigious power production would surely help the Mariners, particularly after the club saw Teoscar Hernandez depart for free agency while parting ways with Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic, and Mike Ford. Those departures have left Seattle in position to improve their contact rate relative to last season, but short on power. The four aforementioned players combined for 75 of the club’s 210 home runs last season, leaving Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh as the lineup’s only reliable sources of power. Hoskins could improve the club’s power potential while also offering a palatable career strikeout rate of 23.9% that wouldn’t conflict with their goal of a more contact-oriented offense in 2024.

That said, the fit between the Mariners and Hoskins isn’t perfect, as the club currently has Ty France as their everyday first baseman. France was one of the Mariners’ better contact hitters in 2023 as he struck out at a clip of just 17.6%, but the 29-year-old’s 104 wRC+ indicates that his overall production left something to be desired, particularly given his offense-first position of first base. If Hoskins were head up north to Seattle, it’s possible that France, who has logged occasional time at second and third base throughout his career, could pitch in all around the infield while also spelling Hoskins at first base, allowing him to ease back into an everyday role with DH starts after his lengthy absence due to injury. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club fielded trade offers on France in the run-up to the trade deadline last summer, though it’s unclear if any such conversations have occurred this winter.

Hoskins isn’t the only power hitter the Mariners have been attached to in recent weeks, as free agent sluggers Jorge Soler and Martinez have both been rumored as potential targets for Seattle as well. Martinez is a somewhat questionable fit for a team looking to prioritize contact, as he posted a strikeout rate north of 30% in 2023, but Soler could prove to be an even better fit for Seattle’s needs than Hoskins given their dearth of outfield depth. Hoskins also has more suitors beyond Seattle, as he’s been connected to the Nationals in recent weeks while also reportedly discussing multiple potential contract frameworks with the Cubs.

Mariners To Take 100 Percent Control Of ROOT Sports Northwest Network

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The Mariners will take full ownership of the ROOT Sports Northwest regional sports network on January 1, according to Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times.  The Mariners had already held a 71% share in ROOT Sports NW since 2013, and they’ll now assume the 29% share previously held by Warner Bros. Discovery, as the corporation is getting out of the RSN business.

This could mean some cuts at ROOT, as Mariners chairman John Stanton met with staffers on Tuesday and “could not promise all staffers that they would retain their jobs,” Divish and Jude write.  More clarity will emerge on the organizational side by mid-January, Stanton told the ROOT employees, and in a statement to Divish/Jude, Stanton said “our top priority is to ensure all Mariners fans have access to watch Mariners games from their home each night.”

In addition to the M’s, ROOT is also the broadcast home of the NHL’s Seattle Kraken, as well as the NBA’s Portland Trail Blazers and (in select markets) Utah Jazz, and some college basketball games involving schools in the Pacific Northwest.  As such, any decision the Mariners take about ROOT’s future involves several other teams and existing contracts, and it isn’t necessarily a guarantee that the M’s will remain with ROOT in its current form.

As Divish and Jude note, the Mariners might opt to sell their broadcasting rights to Major League Baseball itself, following the path of some teams whose TV rights were impacted by the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy announcement last March.  Even the M’s might explore this possibility in the future, however, the “most likely decision” for 2024 is that the team will continue ROOT productions as usual, and simply absorb the new costs associated with full ownership of the network.

Owning a regional sports network has traditionally been seen a positive or even a cash cow for teams in various sports, though the broadcasting landscape has changed rather drastically as more and more customers have either cut back on cable subscriptions or cut the cord entirely.  Comcast Xfinity announced in October that it was planning to double the cost of a subscription to ROOT, which could have even more of an adverse impact on viewership.

With WBD out of the picture, the Mariners will now carry the full brunt of additional costs themselves, and the impact is already being seen in the team’s baseball operations decisions.  Cutting payroll has been the chief focus of Seattle’s offseason to date, and president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto has suggested that the M’s may spend beyond their $140MM payroll for 2023, but perhaps not much beyond.  Seattle has about $117.24MM on the books for 2024 as per Roster Resource, giving the club some but not a ton of spending flexibility as the Mariners look to upgrade their offense.  Dipoto has always been more prone to roster-building via trades than by free agency anyway, but Dipoto might need to be more creative than usual in finding deals that will help the M’s without breaking the bank.

Mariners “Rebuffed” Red Sox’ Interest In Young Starting Pitchers

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The Red Sox’ offseason search for starting pitching hasn’t yet produced any results, although that’s in large part due to the holdup that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is placing on the market. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe breaks down the Sox’ interest in Yamamoto and the manner in which said interest has thus far prevented them from making offers elsewhere on the market (e.g. Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez). With Boston hoping to lure Yamamoto to Fenway Park, it’s at least understandable if the team doesn’t feel comfortable putting forth offers in the vicinity that those other pitchers signed — ranging from $75MM to $172MM — while simultaneously keeping enough powder dry to put forth the type of massive offer Yamamoto will command.

The Yamamoto interest hasn’t been as much of a detriment on a trade market that has largely remained idle, however. Speier reports that the Sox approached the Mariners about their cadre of controllable starting pitchers but were generally rebuffed. Whether that was due to the quality of their offer (or lack thereof), or simply due to the Mariners being unwilling to move someone from the George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo quartet isn’t clear.

However, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested at last week’s Winter Meetings that a trade of one of their young big league starters doesn’t seem likely (link via Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). Dipoto acknowledged “constant” inquiries regarding his young rotation before casting doubt on whether he’d actually make a move involving anyone from the bunch.

“We’ll see what the market bears,” said Dipoto, who’s entering his ninth season as the leader of Mariners baseball operations. “We are going to lean into the thing we do well, and if opportunity presents itself, we have to listen. But by and large, we pitch it; we catch it. We’re very good at developing young players, and we’re going to continue to focus on those things.”

On the one hand, the Mariners and Red Sox seem like natural trade partners. The Mariners are deep controllable young pitchers who’ve had MLB experience. The Red Sox have several promising, controllable hitters who’ve made their big league debuts already (e.g. Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela) and, in some cases, had a good bit of success.

The price to acquire controllable young pitching is always steep, however — particularly when talking about players who’ve already had as much success as Kirby and Gilbert or those with six full seasons of control, like Miller and Woo. The Mariners could well prefer more established hitters. Similarly, the Sox might be loath to part with much in the way of immediate MLB production in the lineup, as the free-agent market isn’t exactly deep in bats to replace any outgoing hitters.

To be clear, there’s no indication the two parties can’t or won’t revisit talks — just as there’s no indication the Mariners will staunchly turn away any and all inquiries on their excellent rotation. To the contrary, Dipoto acknowledged to Jude that for the “right player” with another club, the Mariners “will consider just about anything.”

It’s been a generally quiet offseason for both teams in terms of notable additions. Boston has picked up Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals, but the offseasons of Boston and particularly Seattle thus far have drawn more headlines for their subtractions than their new acquisitions. The Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the archrival Yankees, while the M’s have traded away Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic and Marco Gonzales. In doing so, they’ve substantially reduced the team strikeout rate and freed up some resources to perhaps bring in some offense via the free-agent and/or trade market. Seattle has been connected to free agents Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez over the past week, while rumored trade interest has included the likes of Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Josh Naylor and (before he was traded to Boston) O’Neill. The Red Sox, meanwhile, continue to search for ways to upgrade their starting staff.

Cubs, Mariners, Pirates Interested In Josh Naylor

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Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor drew trade interest from the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates during the Winter Meetings, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  There is no indication that the Guards were in serious talks about a deal, and as Hoynes notes, “for an offensively challenged club, it seems strange that they’d consider trading [Naylor].  But…it never hurts to listen.”

The 26-year-old Naylor hit .308/.354/.489 with 17 homers over 495 plate appearances last season, marking his second straight year of quality production.  The first baseman has a 124 wRC+ in 993 PA since Opening Day 2022, and this past season saw Naylor develop into more of a well-rounded hitter than just a power bat.  Naylor’s average and OBP increased greatly from 2022, and Naylor also cut back on his strikeouts without losing any of his power.  While he doesn’t walk much, that approach isn’t unusual for a Cleveland team that prioritizes contact above all.

It seems quite possible that Naylor hasn’t yet reached his ceiling, given that his early-career development was stunted by both the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then a nasty fractured ankle that cut short his 2021 season and cost him a bit of time at the start of the 2022 campaign.  Naylor also missed about a month due to an oblique strain in 2023, and still generated positive numbers despite a very slow start over the season’s first six weeks.

Naylor’s 128 wRC+ actually outpaced Jose Ramirez’s 123 mark for tops among all Guardians regulars, and Josh’s younger brother Bo Naylor also delivered a 124 wRC+ in the smaller sample size of 230 PA.  These were among the few highlights in an overall dismal year at the plate for the rest of Cleveland’s roster, as the lack of hitting and multiple injuries in the rotation left the Guardians with a mediocre 76-86 record in Terry Francona’s final season as manager.

As Hoynes noted, moving Naylor would seem counterintuitive for a Guardians team that is seemingly looking to upgrade the lineup.  However, as is often the case with the Guards’ moves, there is a financial element at play.  Naylor is projected to earn $7.2MM in the second of three arbitration years, and he is eligible to hit free agency after the 2025 campaign.  While Ramirez is a notable exception, the Guardians generally doesn’t try to retain star talent unless they’re locked up to extensions earlier in their careers, so Naylor could potentially join a long list of notable Cleveland players who were dealt with at least one year remaining of team control.

Just this offseason, it is widely expected that the Guardians will deal Shane Bieber since the former Cy Young Award winner will be a free agent in the 2024-25 offseason.  Cleveland has already moved Cal Quantrill to the Rockies in a salary dump type of trade, and this winter in particular carries extra financial uncertainty for the small-market Guardians since the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings could see the team lose their TV deal.  Since their payroll isn’t expected to go up, that leaves the front office with some tricky decisions to make in figuring out how to improve the roster as a whole.

With this in mind, Naylor becomes a very interesting possible trade chip in an offseason market thin on big bats, particularly in free agency.  Any number of teams would certainly have interest in a 26-year-old who might not have hit his offensive peak yet, and a new club would have two years to perhaps ink Naylor to an extension.

Based on what Cleveland usually seeks out in such trades of established talent, the Guardians could try and obtain an MLB-ready who can help the team in 2024, as well as a longer-term prospect or two.  Turning to the clubs in Hoynes’ report, the highly-ranked farm systems of the Pirates and Cubs could certainly have the assets to fit what would surely be a big asking price from the Guardians.

Acquiring Naylor would instantly fill the Cubs’ needs at first base, and provide a nice pivot after Chicago missed out on Shohei Ohtani.  Cubs GM Carter Hawkins is very familiar with Naylor, as Hawkins previously worked in Cleveland’s front office before heading to Wrigleyville following the 2021 season.  As much as Jed Hoyer’s front office has been hesitant about dealing from its stash of young talent, two years of relatively inexpensive control over Naylor is a tempting proposition, and it would allow the Cubs to then devote extra dollars to free agency.

There is some irony in the Pirates looking to land a player from another team looking to cut costs, given Pittsburgh’s long history of low payrolls.  However, the Bucs have a clear need at first base, and acquiring Naylor would also be another major sign that the team is preparing to finally return to contention.  That push might even come as early as 2024, given the NL Central’s state of flux.

The Mariners are looking for a particular kind of offensive upgrade, as Naylor would fit Seattle’s prioritization of good contact hitters.  The M’s have already parted ways with Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic in their pursuit of more contact, and acquiring Naylor could also give the Mariners cover to trade current first baseman Ty France.

Mariners Sign Brett de Geus To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners have signed right-hander Brett de Geus to a minor league, according to the transactions tracker on his MLB.com profile page. He has since been assigned to Triple-A Tacoma.

de Geus, 26, began his professional career when he was selected by the Dodgers in the 33rd round of the 2017 draft. He made his big league debut with the Rangers during the 2021 season, though his rookie seasons did not go particularly well. In 50 innings of work split between the Rangers and Diamondbacks, de Geus struggled badly with a 7.56 ERA and 5.07 FIP. He struck out just 17.2% of batters faced while walking 10.5%, ratios his standout 52.5% groundball rate was unable to make up for. Those struggles at the big league level led de Geus to spend the 2022 season in the independent Atlantic League, which he remained in for the start of the 2023 season as well.

Just six appearances into his second season of independent ball, however, he jumped ship to sign with the Royals on a minor league contract. de Geus’s first season back in organized ball saw him post mixed results; while he was shelled to the tune of a 11.45 in 11 innings of work at the Triple-A level, he impressed in 35 1/3 Double-A innings with a 2.80 ERA. Looking under the hood of that Double-A performance, de Geus struck out 20.6% of batters faced while generating groundballs at a 56.8% clip.

Clearly, in signing de Geus Seattle is making a bet that his Double-A numbers last season are more indicative of his overall ability than his 11-inning stint at the highest level of the minors last year. Despite his largely middling results, de Geus could prove to be an interesting piece of bullpen depth as the Mariners enter the 2024 campaign thanks to his proclivity for keeping the ball on the ground. It’s a trait the Mariners clearly value in relief arms, as the club’s bullpen posted an impressive 48.2% groundball rate last season, good for the third-best figure in the majors behind only the Yankees and Cardinals.

Latest On J.D. Martinez’s Market

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Among the top free agents on the market his offseason, one could argue that no player has had his market impacted more by the presence of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani than veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After all, the Dodgers declined to extend Martinez a qualifying offer last month despite interest in a reunion due to the complications that would arise if the club landed both Martinez and Ohtani. With Ohtani now signed in LA on a record-shattering $700MM deal, its hard to imagine the Dodgers-Martinez reunion both sides appeared to have interest in coming together. To that end, Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update regarding Martinez’s market, suggesting that the Angels, Mariners, Mets and Diamondbacks could be among the teams in play for his services now that he’s unlikely to return to Chavez Ravine. Among that group, only Arizona had previously been connected to the veteran slugger this winter.

The Angels certainly make plenty of sense as a suitor for Martinez now that they know Ohtani won’t be returning to Anaheim in 2024. After all, the club has made it clear they have no plans to launch a rebuild this offseason as the club dismissed speculation that Ohtani’s impending departure could lead to a trade of Mike Trout this offseason. With Ohtani moving on in 2024 and a 2023 record of just 73-89, the club has a lot of work to do if it hopes to compete for a playoff spot next season.

Of course, improved health from the likes of Trout, Logan O’Hoppe and Anthony Rendon could represent internal avenues toward improvement, but it’s hard to imagine the Angels competing without an external offensive addition to help mitigate the loss of Ohtani. Martinez, who slashed .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs and a 135 wRC+ last season, was outclassed only by Ohtani and Marcell Ozuna among regulars at DH last season and would go a long way toward filling the offensive hole left by Ohtani.

As for the Mariners, the addition of Martinez would surely benefit a lineup that has lost Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Ford this offseason without a clear everyday replacement for any of those bats. What’s more, the club has shed plenty of payroll this offseason and has previously been connected to fellow righty slugger Jorge Soler this offseason. Martinez, 36, posted a stronger offensive season than the 31-year-old Soler in 2023 and could potentially be a more impactful addition to Seattle’s lineup next season.

With that being said, the Mariners have made clear their desire to improve their lineup’s contact skills headed into 2024, and Soler’s 25.7% strikeout rate figures to be much more palatable than Martinez’s 31.4% mark last season. What’s more, while MLBTR projected Soler for a $45MM guarantee that clocks in higher than Martinez’s $40MM figure on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, it’s worth noting that Soler’s relative youth could allow him to secure a longer contract than Martinez, which would tamp down the average annual value of the deal and potentially allow the Mariners to more room in their budget for further offensive additions.

The Mets are perhaps the most curious fit for Martinez among the listed teams. While the club received a mediocre 100 wRC+ from their DH slot (the 12th-worst figure in the majors) last season and subsequently parted ways with Daniel Vogelbach at the non-tender deadline last month, it’s worth noting that the club has plenty of young bats such as Mark Vientos and Brett Baty who could command playing time next season and that adding a 36-year-old DH to a club that’s more focused on the future than 2024 may not be the best use of the club’s resources. On the other hand, the only Mets regulars to post above-average seasons by measure of wRC+ last season who will remain with the club in 2024 are Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo. Adding the bat of Martinez to the middle of the club’s lineup next season would add some much-needed offensive firepower and help the club compete in what is shaping up to be the final year before Alonso heads into free agency next winter.

Royals Exploring Pitching Market, Have Interest In Seth Lugo

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The Royals have been “aggressive” in their search for rotation help this offseason and made an offer to right-hander Sonny Gray before he signed with the Cardinals, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal further writes that the Royals are among the teams showing strong interest in right-hander Seth Lugo, who’s drawn widespread interest this winter.

Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo has made no secret about his desire to add to his rotation, plainly stating early in the offseason that “one of our goals is to get starting pitching.” The Royals need at least one arm and could well look to add multiple pieces to the rotation between now and Opening Day. The Royals got a breakout showing from Cole Ragans after acquiring him from the Rangers in exchange for Aroldis Chapman this past summer, and right-hander Brady Singer is likely locked into a rotation spot even after an up-and-down year (and, more broadly, up-and-down big league tenure in terms of performance). Beyond that, the Royals have veteran innings eater Jordan Lyles signed for next season and are surely still hopeful of getting some quality innings from former top prospects Kris Bubic (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Daniel Lynch.

That said, the Royals have been hoping for the quartet of Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Jackson Kowar to eventually emerge at the MLB level for several seasons. That group comprised the nucleus of a vaunted 2018 crop of college arms around whom the Royals hoped to build, but their development hasn’t panned out. Singer had a brilliant 2022 season and took a step back in 2023. Bubic had Tommy John surgery early in 2023. Kowar has been twice traded this offseason and is now in the Mariners organization.

Rosenthal suggests that in their quest to find rotation upgrades, the Royals have been willing to talk about trades of former top catching/outfield prospect MJ Melendez, infielder Michael Massey and catcher Freddy Fermin. Melendez and Massey, however, are coming off dismal 2023 campaigns. The former is a .227/.314/.396 hitter in 1136 MLB plate appearances and has posted bottom-of-the-scale defensive grades both behind the plate and in the outfield corners. The latter got his first full-time look in ’23 but managed only a .229/.274/.381 slash with mixed defensive ratings (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, +3 Outs Above Average). Both players still have five seasons of remaining club control.

Fermin, meanwhile, looks to be a late-blooming option capable of handling a regular workload behind the dish, be it for the Royals or another club. He entered the 2023 season with just seven MLB plate appearances but wound up tallying 235 trips to the plate with a .281/.321/.461 output and nine home runs. Defensive Runs Saved credited Fermin at a hearty mark of +8, and both FanGraphs and Statcast credited him as an above average framer. Statcast also tabbed Fermin as league-average in terms of blocking balls in the dirt, and his 31% caught-stealing rate checked in 10 percentage points above the league average.

Age and lack of big league track record notwithstanding, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding Fermin and his breakout rookie season. However, that also makes him quite valuable to a Royals club that has an aging Salvador Perez behind the plate. Perez’s defensive ratings have been in a freefall for the past few seasons, and his production at the plate has also begun to wane. The 33-year-old (34 in May) team captain still smacked 23 home runs last year, but his overall .255/.292/.422 batting line was his weakest since 2018. Perez still caught 91 games last year (against 29 at DH), but at some point the Royals could begin playing him more regularly at DH, which would open time for Fermin. Perez is still signed for another two years at a total of $44MM.

Since Rosenthal reports that Kansas City has spoken with the Marlins and Mariners about pitching-related trades, Miami might stand out as a logical team that could have interest in Fermin’s services.  The Fish are in need of catching help, and seem to be open to the idea of dealing more pitching, after already parting ways with a decent chunk of their rotation depth in other trades over the last couple of years.

As for the team’s free-agent pursuits, Lugo is a sensible and logical target both due to his strong platform season and the fact that the Royals also reportedly had interest in him a year ago. After spending the bulk of his career as a reliever with the Mets, Lugo signed a two-year, $15MM deal with the Padres, who offered him a chance to start and even included an opt-out in the event that he showed well in a starting role.

That’s exactly how things played out. Lugo took the ball 26 times and posted a 3.57 ERA with a 23.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate in a career-high 146 1/3 innings. He’s already 34, but Lugo figures to command a much nicer multi-year deal this time around — perhaps reaching three years in length. That the length of his deal will likely be capped due to age should be appealing to the Royals, who typically operate on a tight budget but do have some spending flexibility this winter. Picollo has already said that his club should have at least $30MM to spend.

Royals, Mariners Have Shown Trade Interest In Tyler O’Neill

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The Cardinals have been exploring trade scenarios involving outfielder Tyler O’Neill —  president of baseball operations John Mozeliak acknowledged as much at this week’s Winter Meetings — and Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch reports that the Royals and Mariners are two of the several teams who’ve spoken to the Cards about the 28-year-old O’Neill.

A two-time Gold Glove winner in left field, O’Neill had a monster 2021 season that netted him an eighth-place finish in National League MVP voting but has battled injuries throughout his career. He slashed .286/.352/.560 with 34 home runs. He walked at a below-average 7.1% clip and fanned at a lofty 31.3% rate, but it was an undeniably excellent campaign all around. The two seasons since have been decidedly less than that.

From 2022-23, O’Neill has appeared in just 168 games and totaled 649 plate appearances with a .229/.310/.397 slash. Along the way, he’s dealt with shoulder, hamstring, foot and back injuries. Staying on the field has been a problem throughout his big league tenure;  since making his MLB debut back in 2018, O’Neill has been placed on the injured list on 12 different occasions, owing to a wide variety of ailments. He’s controlled for just one more year before becoming a free agent, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects O’Neill to earn a reasonable $5.5MM salary this coming season.

The Cardinals have been seeking bullpen help on the trade market, and it stands to reason that even one year of O’Neill could land them that. Goold notes that they’re also open to packaging him in a larger deal to acquire a front-end rotation upgrade, though such a deal would be far harder to orchestrate. Excellent as O’Neill was in 2021, that was two years ago, and he’s now a one-year bounceback rental. He wouldn’t be a prominent factor in any package for a high-end starter.

As for the two reported suitors, both make some degree of sense. The Mariners could use a right-handed bat to replace free agent Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez, whom they traded to the Diamondbacks earlier in the offseason. Whether O’Neill fits the Mariners’ stated preference of adding more contact to the lineup, however, is an open question. He fanned at 25.2% clip last year — far lower than the 30%-plus marks posted by both Suarez and Hernandez. However, O’Neill whiffed in more than 31% of his plate appearances in his best season and has a career 30% mark.

That said, Seattle’s interest is only natural, considering the Mariners are the team that selected him in the third round of the 2013 draft. That predates president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s time with the team — and it was Dipoto who traded O’Neill to St. Louis in exchange for Marco Gonzales — but there are some longtime holdovers who surely still view O’Neill in a favorable light.

In reporting on the Mariners’ interest in Jorge Soler this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested that the M’s might want to spread their remaining financial resources out among multiple targets. O’Neill would allow them to do that more than Soler, who’ll likely command a salary two to three times as large as O’Neill in free agency. Then again, it’s also possible the M’s could sign Soler to DH and acquire O’Neill to play left field in place of Jarred Kelenic, who was traded to the Braves earlier in the week. The Mariners’ payroll projection right now checks in under $120MM, and Dipoto has spoken on record about how payroll can increase over last year’s $140MM mark.

As for the Royals, they’re lacking in the way of any established big league outfielders. Royals outfielders combined for a lowly .228/.294/.393 batting line in 2023, with the resulting 84 wRC+ ranking 29th in the Majors. O’Neill fits the Royals’ longstanding preference for premium defensive players, and the upside of his 2021 season at the plate is the type of production that the budget-conscious Royals typically can’t afford to pursue in free agency.

At present, the Royals’ outfield mix consists of MJ Melendez, Drew Waters, Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares and Nelson Velazquez. The latter of that quintet surely earned a full look in 2024 with a huge power showing following his acquisition from the Cubs at last year’s deadline, and Melendez has long been one of the organization’s top prospects. None from that bunch has had any sustained MLB success, however, and Melendez — also a catcher — grades out quite poorly from a defensive standpoint.

The Royals are known to be in the market for rotation help, but general manager J.J. Picollo also said earlier in the offseason that a bat who could hit somewhere from third to sixth in the middle of his order would be nice to add. A healthy O’Neill is absolutely that type of bat, and his projected salary fits comfortably within the $30MM+ that Picollo acknowledged he has to spend this winter.

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