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Filing Day Reactions: NL East

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After a busy filing day, let’s see what’s in store for a couple of teams in the NL East…

  • Only Shane Greene remains from their arbitration pool. The Braves and Greene have a $500K gap in their filing numbers to reconcile lest the panel get the final say. Greene will figure in the back end mix no matter his price point. With Will Smith in tow and a full season of Mark Melancon, Greene should slot in somewhere closer to the 7th inning along with Chris Martin and Luke Jackson. Overall, the Braves payroll is already set to open at a franchise record $130MM for the 2020 season – and that’s without Josh Donaldson, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien. It certainly says something that the Braves are still trying to bring back Donaldson despite already setting a team record for payroll. Despite the Nationals’ World Series title, the Braves are the back-to-back defending NL East champs, and they’ve been aggressive this winter in their attempt to make it a turkey with a third consecutive division crown in 2020.
  • The Phillies came away from filing day with deals with all but two of their arbitration candidates: J.T. Realmuto and Hector Neris. Philadelphia would like to hammer out an extension for Realmuto, with Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer supposing Realmuto to desire “something in the neighborhood of five years and $100 million.” An extension could grant GM Matt Klentak important flexibility. Right now the Opening Day payroll figures to land around $202MM, giving the club about $6MM in wiggle room for in-season additions before exceeding the luxury tax. Phillies managing partner John Middleton is prepared to pay the tax, but not for a team that doesn’t figure for the playoffs. For the second consecutive year, it looks like the Phillies will wait to see where they are in the standings before deciding to pay the tax.
  • The Nationals settled with all their arbitration eligible players, but GM Mike Rizzo spoke with the media today, touching on a number of topics. They expect resolution on the Ryan Zimmerman front shortly, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. GM Mike Rizzo met with Zimmerman for 90 minutes on Friday, and it’s long been expected that the Nats would bring back Mr. National for the title defense. As for third base, Rizzo considers the position filled without totally shutting the door on a Donaldson signing, per The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli. Asdrubal Cabrera and Starlin Castro figure to get time at third, and speculatively speaking, Howie Kendrick saw a few innings at the hot corner last year as well. Bottom line, the Nats plan on creativity and flexibility for their whole infield this year, and they are okay not naming and everyday starter, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Braves To Install Mark Melancon As Closer

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The Braves will install veteran righty Mark Melancon as their closer, manager Brian Snitker told reporters including Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (via Twitter). He finished out tonight’s game, though it did not come in a save situation.

Melancon was one of three veteran relievers acquired by the Atlanta organization at the trade deadline. At the time, it did not seem terribly likely he’d receive a shot at ninth-inning work. Shane Greene took the inside track to the gig, with fellow newcomer Chris Martin and incumbent Luke Jackson also potentially in the mix.

Things have changed rather quickly. Greene and Martin have been shaky. The Braves don’t want to turn things back over to Jackson. And Melancon has been steady. It’s only a handful of outings, but the Atlanta org is obviously looking for a steadying presence. Perhaps it shouldn’t be seen as a surprise that the experienced late-inning hand has already grasped the reins.

Melancon hasn’t functioned as a steady closer since early in the 2017 season, but he has racked up 183 career saves. Though he has been more steady than dominant of late, carrying a 3.29 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 since the start of the 2018 season, the 34-year-old surely won’t be cowed by the prospect of handling the high-leverage spots.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Braves’ late-inning relief situation shakes out down the stretch. Snitker did not commit to permanently utilizing Melancon in the closer’s role, though he did indicate that the veteran will be trusted with the job for some time to come. The club is obviously willing to switch things up on the fly, but will presumably hope to settle into some kind of established approach before the postseason arrives.

Report: Tigers Were Offered Baez, Bregman In 2017 Offers For Michael Fulmer

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Between a down year in 2018 and then Tommy John surgery in March 2019, Michael Fulmer has fallen off the radar for many fans outside of the Motor City.  Yet it wasn’t long ago that Fulmer was one the most sought-after trade chips in baseball, hotly pursued by multiple teams in the aftermath of a Rookie Of The Year season in 2016, and a strong sophomore year that saw him post a 3.83 ERA, 2.85 K/BB rate, and 6.2 K/9 over 164 2/3 innings in 2017, though Fulmer’s year was cut short by elbow surgery.

It was during that 2017 season that the Tigers finally went into full rebuild mode, trading Justin Verlander, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, and others before the trading period finally halted at the end of August.  Fulmer received plenty of attention from trade suitors, though he wasn’t as obvious of a moveable asset given that he still had so many years of team control remaining.

Nonetheless, the Tigers received some sizeable offers for his services, and according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press, these offers included two blockbusters for future All-Stars.  The Tigers reportedly declined a three-player package from the Cubs that would have seen Javier Baez head to Detroit in exchange for Fulmer, while the Astros were willing to give up Alex Bregman for both Fulmer and left-hander Justin Wilson.

It makes for an eye-popping case of hindsight for the Tigers and their fans, considering how the three principal figures of those offers have since performed.  Baez and Bregman are simply two of the game’s best players, each collecting All-Star appearances in both 2018 and 2019, while Baez finished second in NL MVP voting last season while Bregman racked up a fifth-place finish in the 2018 AL MVP race and also played a big role in the Astros’ 2017 World Series title.

Fulmer, by contrast, hasn’t matched his early potential due to injuries and perhaps simply some statistical regression.  Whether he can regain his former front-of-the-rotation status is a question that can’t be answered until at least a few months into the 2020 season (or perhaps until 2021, if Fulmer is one of many pitchers who under-performs in their first several starts back from TJ surgery).

There were some rumors about a Cubs/Tigers trade involving Fulmer back in 2017, prior to Chicago’s acquisition of Jose Quintana from the White Sox, though Detroit reportedly wanted both Baez and Ian Happ as part of a Fulmer trade package.  Bregman and Fulmer were never linked in any trade talks, and one wonders if the Astros only floated the idea fairly early in the year, since Bregman was installed as the team’s everyday third baseman from Opening Day onward.  Needless to say, Bregman was no longer on the table by the time Houston and Detroit collaborated on their actual 2017 blockbuster, the championship-deciding deal that sent Verlander to the Astros on August 31.

In fairness to the Tigers, every front office has countless examples of instances where they missed out on a trade or a signing that would have been a steal.  Likewise, from the Cubs’ and Astros’ perspective, every team can cite numerous cases where they lucked out in not making a transaction.  But the Fulmer situation looms large, Fenech notes, given how Detroit has been unable to maximize the return on several of their top trade assets during their rebuild.

Several scouts from around the league weren’t very impressed by the four total prospects Detroit received from the Cubs and Braves in trade deadline swaps of Nicolas Castellanos and Shane Greene.  The Tigers also weren’t able to trade Matt Boyd, perhaps their most valuable trade chip, at all.  While “multiple executives indicated Boyd’s trade value will never be as high as it was at 3:59 p.m. on Wednesday” prior to the trade deadline, it seems that Detroit’s asking price on Boyd was simply too exorbitant.  One National League exec told Fenech that the Tigers’ demands were “borderline comical,” and an AL executive describing Detroit’s front office as “impossible to deal with.”

The Tigers also asked for a lot in their attempts to trade Greene.  For instance, Detroit asked the Nationals for top infield prospect Carter Kieboom, and Fenech also reports that the Nationals turned down an offer for Luis Garcia, another prized young infielder.

Braves Acquire Shane Greene

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The Braves have acquired right-handed closer Shane Greene from the Tigers for left-hander Joey Wentz and outfielder Travis Demeritte, per an announcement from Atlanta.

Greene has posted excellent results this year, but as a reliever with waning control on a rebuilding team, he has looked like an obvious trade candidate throughout the campaign. The 30-year-old’s on a $4MM salary this season and comes with arbitration eligibility for another winter.

Through 38 innings in 2019, Greene has pitched to a measly 1.18 ERA, but that surely won’t hold. His 3.70 FIP, 3.80 xFIP and 3.45 SIERA are all a good distance away, while there’s also a sizable gap between the weighted on-base average Greene has allowed (.221) and his xwOBA (.282). But that’s not to say Greene can’t be a significant asset going forward. He still owns an excellent 10.18 K/9 against 2.84 BB/9, an easily above-average 53.8 percent groundball rate and a solid 14.3 percent infield fly rate.

Greene, who has 22 saves on 25 attempts this season, may take over as the Braves’ closer immediately. Luke Jackson has been serving in the role, though he has blown seven saves on 24 tries. Plus, while Jackson has done good work for most of the year, he has endured an awful stretch in which he has yielded seven earned runs in six appearances dating back to July 12. With Jackson struggling and the NL East-leading Braves lacking an abundance of dependable relievers aside from him, they’ve now reeled in Greene, former Rangers righty Chris Martin and ex-Giants righty Mark Melancon since Tuesday evening.

Wentz, 21, joined the Braves as a sixth-round pick in 2016. He entered the season as the Braves’ 11th-ranked prospect, according to FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen, who noted at the time injuries and inconsistency have held Wentz back. He has gotten his first taste of Double-A action this season and put up a 4.72 ERA/4.36 FIP with 8.74 K/9 and 3.93 BB/9 over 103 innings.

The 24-year-old Demeritte did not rank among FanGraphs’ top Braves prospects entering the season, but they noted then he possesses “easy plus power and is passable at multiple positions defensively.” Demeritte has since slashed an outstanding .286/.357/.558 with 20 home runs in 399 plate appearances in his Triple-A debut. A first-round pick (No. 30) of the Rangers in 2013, Demeritte became a Brave via trade in 2016. He’s now on the move again.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported a trade was close. Buster Olney of ESPN reported the Braves had acquired Greene. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted Wentz’s involvement. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Braves, Nats Pursuing Shane Greene

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12:36pm: The Tigers are still insisting the Nats part with top prospect Carter Kieboom to move Greene, according to Morosi (Twitter link). It’s frankly difficult to imagine that asking price being met with the highly regarded Kieboom dominating Triple-A pitching at 21 years of age. That’s all the more true given that Kieboom could fit on the Nats’ 2020 roster (if not the late-2019 roster) in a variety of ways.

12:07pm: The Braves and Nationals are not just engaged in a key series at the moment. It seems they’re also each pushing for the same relief arms — in particular, Tigers righty Shane Greene.

The Atlanta and Washington organizations are “leaders in the clubhouse” to secure the services of Greene, according to Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). Talks between the Braves and Tigers have “intensified” recently, with Greene “the focus,” per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter).

Greene, 30, is earning a reasonable $4MM this year for the Tigers. That’s nothing for his 38 innings of 1.18 ERA ball and 22 saves, though rival organizations still need to assess whether that’s what they can expect moving forward from Greene, who’ll be eligible for arbitration a final time next year.

Clearly, nobody thinks he’ll be able to sustain that sort of pitching output. But there’s good reason to think that Greene is and will remain a quality late-inning piece. He’s carrying 10.2 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 with a 53.8% groundball rate, with an 11.1% swinging-strike rate that’s substantially better than his prior two seasons.

Pitching Rumors: Reds, Bauer, Yanks, Phils, MadBum, Greene, Fish, Nats

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The Reds just agreed to acquire right-hander Trevor Bauer from the Indians on Tuesday evening. Could the Reds now turn around and flip Bauer by Wednesday’s trade deadline? Not likely, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Meanwhile, two of Bauer’s new Cincinnati rotation mates – Alex Wood and the previously reported Tanner Roark – have drawn interest from the Phillies. Philly has “taken a very close look at” Wood, per Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Wood finally just made his season debut Sunday after months of back troubles, but the non-contending Reds could now attempt to get what they can for the pending free agent. The 28-year-old Wood, who’s on a $9.65MM salary, posted quality production with the Braves and Dodgers from 2013-18.

A smorgasbord of other pitcher-related rumors…

  • Despite their recent run of excellence, the Giants are fielding calls and “engaging in negotiations” for starter Madison Bumgarner and reliever Will Smith, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The Astros are reportedly among the teams chasing Bumgarner, but Smith is the more likely of the two to find himself in a new uniform by Wednesday, Schulman suggests. Although he’s a pending free agent, it’s likely Smith would bring back a significant return. He’s affordable ($4.225MM salary) and enjoying a marvelous season as the Giants’ closer.
  • Back to Bauer, who was reportedly one of the Yankees’ preferred targets in their search for starting help. That may have been overblown, though, as the Yankees and Indians didn’t engage in “serious talks” over Bauer, Andy Martino of SNY relays.
  • The asking price for Tigers closer Shane Greene is “far more reasonable” than the requests for other high-end relievers around the league, Feinsand tweets. Feinsand points to the Pirates’ Felipe Vazquez, the Reds’ Raisel Iglesias, the Mets’ Edwin Diaz and the Padres’ Kirby Yates as relievers who would be much harder to acquire, which isn’t surprising.
  • Reliever Nick Anderson is among Marlins hurlers garnering interest, though he’ll be difficult to pry loose, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com writes. As a 29-year-old rookie, the hard-throwing Anderson has put up a 3.92 ERA with a much better 2.73 FIP in 43 2/3 frames this season. While Anderson has only induced ground balls at a 27.3 percent clip, he has helped offset that by racking up a prodigious 14.2 strikeouts against 3.3 walks per nine. Adding to his value, Anderson’s on a league-minimum salary and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 season.
  • The Giants and Nationals “have discussed” southpaw Drew Pomeranz, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Pomeranz, whom the Giants recently demoted to their bullpen amid a rough season, has also been drawing interest from elsewhere in recent days.

Closer Market Rumors: Diaz, Vazquez

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The Mets have numerous top trade chips on the market right now, including marquee offseason acquisition Edwin Diaz. The talented young closer remains highly valuable despite his 4.95 ERA, though it’s likewise true that there’s little chance the Mets would be able to recoup what they gave up to get him over the winter. Beyond the fact that Diaz is now just months away from arbitration, the Mets simply paid a hefty fee for Diaz at the outset. In addition to parting with rising prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, the club took on $64MM in new salary (after netting out the cash and salaries exchanged).

While that’s a particularly painful price in retrospect, the New York organization must now think primarily about what it wants its roster and payroll to look like moving forward. The latest on Diaz and the rest of the closer market:

  • Despite Diaz’s struggles in the earned-run department, there’s “significant” demand for his services, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). At present, the Dodgers, Rays, Braves, and Padres are teams with active interest. Several of those teams have been linked clearly to Diaz of late.
  • While Rosenthal had also listed the Red Sox, who were connected yesterday to Diaz by ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, it seems that possibility has already fizzed. That match “remains unlikely,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand adds Raisel Iglesias of the Reds and Shane Greene of the Tigers as other top relievers unlikely to end up in Boston. (Twitter link.) The Braves, on the other hand, do indeed still seem to be in pursuit of Diaz. Per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, via Twitter, the Mets have continued to examine the Atlanta farm. From the Braves’ side, it seems Diaz is the top target, with starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler of ongoing but lesser interest.
  • If there’s a clear alternative to Diaz, it’s ace Pirates reliever Felipe Vazquez. The high-octane lefty has hit another gear in 2019, with 14.1 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 to go with his shiny 1.87 ERA on the season. We’ve seen him connected recently to the Dodgers, but there’s no indication the sides have momentum. Indeed, Rosenthal adds (in the above-linked column) that the Bucs are putting such a high price on Vazquez that he “essentially is not available.” That may be a bargaining ploy to see if a rival comes forward with a monster offer, but it’s certainly understandable that the Pirates aren’t just putting Vazquez up for auction. Rosenthal cites anonymous front office opinion that the Pittsburgh roster doesn’t have enough to compete in the near-term to justify keeping an asset such as Vazquez. That may well be the case, but it doesn’t mean the club should sell him short — particularly after seeing what the M’s were able to pry from the Mets for Diaz last winter.

Pitching Chatter: Vazquez, Diaz, Ray, Colome, Greene

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As the Dodgers continue to try to pry closer Felipe Vazquez loose from the Pirates, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (Twitter link) that the sides are at a bit of an impasse. It seems the Bucs would (quite understandably) like to receive soaring L.A. prospect Gavin Lux, a versatile infielder who has completely obliterated Triple-A pitching (.474/.553/.918 in 114 plate appearances with eight home runs and a 17:17 K/BB ratio) since a mid-season promotion. The clubs may well be engaged in a bit of a staring contest as the deadline draws near.

More news and rumors from the pitching market …

  • The Rays may have faded in the AL East, but they’re not planning to go quietly. Olney tweets that the club is “doing work” on Mets reliever Edwin Diaz, making for an intriguing (if vague) connection. Beyond the obvious appeal of a high-charged young hurler who has shown a past ability to dominate like few others, there are a few other reasons to like this match. Diaz’s run of poor results will limit his arbitration earning power, boosting his appeal to the payroll-conscious Rays. And as Mike Petriello of MLB.com explains, there are plenty of reasons to believe that Diaz is every bit as good as ever before.
  • Rival organizations “fully expect” the Diamondbacks to deal southpaw Robbie Ray, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Arizona GM Mike Hazen continued to acknowledge his club’s tricky middle ground while avoiding a firm commitment to a particular course of action, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The top baseball ops man did acknowledge that there’s a possibility the team could pull off enough sell-side moves that it wouldn’t make sense to reload in the offseason. At the moment, the Brewers, Astros, and Yankees are among the teams with active talks or interest in Ray, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).
  • With a real shot at a much-anticipated return to the top of the heap in the NL Central, the Cardinals could yet swing a big deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that the St. Louis ballclub is interested in a controllable starter. Beyond that, the Cards’ precise plans remain a bit difficult to ascertain. The club is interested in lefty relief pitching, though that’s a trade deadline staple for many contenders. We haven’t seen the team connected prominently to any high-end hurlers, but a bold move seems tempting.
  • We’ve seen the Yankees connected to a wide variety of hurlers in recent weeks, with the club focused primarily on starters but also entertaining relief upgrades. They’ve recently chatted with the Tigers about old friend Shane Greene, according to MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link). Most contenders are no doubt at least checking in on Greene, who’s among the likeliest players in baseball to be traded in the coming days.
  • Similarly, the Phillies have cast an exceedingly broad net. Their relief situation remains problematic; now, there are indications that David Robertson’s rehab may drag into September, as Nightengale was among those to tweet. Another name to add to the list of Phils possibilities: Alex Colome of the White Sox. Morosi tweets that there’s “continued interest” on the part of the Philadelphia organization.

A’s Interested In Syndergaard, Wheeler

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At 59-47, the A’s sit right in the thick of a crowded AL Wild Card race. They already signaled their willingness to upgrade the 2019 roster by bolstering their bullpen, but the team is at least considering much bigger targets than Jake Diekman. Per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the club has made inquiries on Mets’ starters Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler. Slusser notes that the A’s have also reached out to the Tigers to inquire about Shane Greene.

The trade candidacies of all three hurlers have been discussed ad nauseum in recent days. Syndergaard’s is the most fascinating of the trio, as we’ve heard conflicting reports on how determined the New York front office is to move him and head-scratching ideas of a three-team trade that would net the Mets Marcus Stroman, with the Wilpons’ questionable willingness to approve any Thor deal lurking in the background. It’s clear the fireballer would have a broad market if the Mets decide to make him available. While his 4.33 ERA this season is higher than average, his peripherals paint the picture of at least a solid mid-rotation starter. On top of that, Syndergaard comes with two and a half years of team control, a pre-2019 track record of dominance and still-overpowering stuff.

The cases of Wheeler and Greene are more straightforward. Wheeler’s a pending free agent on a non-contending club, so it’s no surprise to see his name being bandied about. While we’ve heard some speculation the Mets could pursue a Wheeler extension in hopes of contending in 2020, he still looks to be one of the more likely trade candidates in baseball. After all, even if the Mets do flip Wheeler, there’s no reason to believe they couldn’t reengage with his representatives on a long-term deal after he hits free agency.

Wheeler would immediately vault to the front of another patchwork A’s rotation, potentially giving them an arm they’d feel comfortable deploying in the AL Wild Card game if they secure a spot. On the other hand, it’s arguable the club should pursue a more moderate starting pitching upgrade, rather than pushing in for perhaps the game’s top rental trade candidate when any hope of winning the division has all but evaporated.

The bullpen doesn’t stand out as a particular area of weakness for Oakland, especially after yesterday’s acquisition of Diekman. A’s relievers rank in the top five in park-adjusted ERA and FIP, making it one of the game’s strongest units. That said, stockpiling bullpen depth could be an alternative to paying a premium for a starter, and it’s worth noting the club bullpened its way through last season’s Wild Card game, which they may be inclined to try again if they get there. (Of course, they lost that game, but one loss doesn’t mean the front office should or will abandon the strategy). Greene’s 1.22 ERA in 2019 is not sustainable, but he’s having a good season no matter which metric you examine and comes with an additional year of team control via arbitration. Nearly every contender figures to check in on the top relievers on the trade market, so it’s unsurprising to hear Oakland continuing to poke around on that market.

Oakland’s top-heavy farm system could make a Wheeler or Greene trade a bit more complicated than would appear at first glance. While any Syndergaard trade would presumably include one of A.J. Puk, Jesus Luzardo, or Sean Murphy, those names would almost certainly be off the table in any trade for a rental or non-elite reliever. To acquire Wheeler or Greene, the A’s would seemingly need to package lower-tier prospects of interest to the Mets or Tigers, respectively, which could make finding a centerpiece of a deal challenging. That’s not to say the A’s couldn’t meet the asking price on either player- they certainly could- but swinging a deal would likely involve multiple low-level pieces not currently among the game’s top 100 prospects.

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