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How The Delayed Season Impacts The Phillies

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Last week, MLBTR’s Connor Byrne took a look at how the delayed start of the 2020 season will impact the Yankees. We’ll be running out a look at how all 30 clubs will be impacted in the days and weeks to come.  And since we’ve already tackled the Phillies’ Offseason in Review, let’s now turn to how this will impact their roster choices down the road.

First and foremost, left fielder Andrew McCutchen should have ample time to rehabilitate his knee. The 33-year-old tore his left ACL last year and was expected to be ready to join the Phillies’ lineup at some point in April. With the season pushed back until at least May 10 — quite likely longer than that — McCutchen should be good to go for the year’s first game, barring any sort of setback.

He may not be the MVP-caliber talent he once was, but McCutchen was an important part of the Philadelphia lineup all the same. In 59 games and 292 plate appearances, he posted a .256/.378/.457 batting line with 10 homers, 12 doubles and a triple. Cutch’s career-best 16.4 percent walk rate and sky-high OBP were badly missed on a team that posted a pedestrian .319 OBP on the whole. That mark tied them for 19th in MLB, and McCutchen’s primary replacement, Jay Bruce, had the fourth-worst OBP in the Majors at .261 (min. 300 plate appearances).

McCutchen’s likely inclusion on the Opening Day roster should impact the bench mix as well. His presence would push Bruce into a more limited role and likely mean that one of Nick Williams or Roman Quinn misses out on the 26-man roster. Given that Williams has a minor league option remaining and Quinn does not, it seems likeliest that Williams would be the odd man out. The Phils have explored trading Williams in the past, and one would imagine that with a full-strength outfield that possibility would be a bit likelier.

The composition of the bench is of extra note given the abnormally large slate of non-roster players in camp hoping to secure a backup job with the Phillies; Josh Harrison, Phil Gosselin, Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe and Ronald Torreyes are among the slew of infielders Philadelphia inked to minor league pacts this winter.

On the pitching side of things, the projected delay ought to give right-hander Tommy Hunter time to ramp up. He’s on the mend from 2019 elbow surgery and was expected to miss the first month of the year prior to the shutdown. Hunter’s health is far from a given after he missed nearly all of last year with a forearm injury, which is why he took a one-year, make-good deal that only promises him an $850K base salary. But when healthy, Hunter has turned in 69 1/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball with the Phillies. Considering the overwhelming number of injuries that left the Philly bullpen in a state of disrepair a year ago, any healthy contributions from the veteran Hunter will be a most welcome addition.

As is the case with the bench, the Phillies have a deluge of veterans competing for bullpen jobs on non-roster deals. Francisco Liriano, Drew Storen, Bud Norris, Anthony Swarzak and Blake Parker were all invited to camp. A healthy Hunter leaves one less spot to win.

Things are less certain for two other relievers: Seranthony Dominguez and David Robertson. The former underwent an MRI after experiencing a setback in his recovery from last summer’s elbow troubles and acknowledged significant concern. With a poor enough diagnosis, he could miss the entire 2020 season regardless, but if non-surgical treatment is recommended, the delay could buy him time to rehab. Robertson, meanwhile, underwent Tommy John surgery last August. The club’s hope had been that the right-hander could return in the season’s second half, and if the season doesn’t get underway until the summer, he’d theoretically be available for a greater portion of the year.

Perhaps the most interesting scenario is what the implications could be for the rotation. As Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer explored over the weekend, the delayed start to the season lessens the need for the Phillies to monitor the workload of prized pitching prospect Spencer Howard. Considered one of the game’s 40 best prospects by each of Baseball America, MLB.com, ESPN, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, Howard totaled just 99 1/3 innings between the regular season and the Arizona Fall League in 2019.

General manager Matt Klentak has previously spoken about the need to make sure he has enough innings left in his arm to contribute down the stretch, and a shorter season should reduce his workload overall. That could also afford Howard fewer innings to develop in Double-A and Triple-A, but Howard ripped through Class-A Advanced en route to a Double-A promotion and found similar success there in 2019 (2.35 ERA, 38-to-9 K/BB ratio in 30 2/3 innings). He’ll surely open the season in the minors, but a similarly aggressive ascension in 2020 shouldn’t be ruled out.

Howard’s timeline to the big leagues will directly impact the bullpen composition and perhaps the very future in the organization for once-touted righties Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta. Both have a minor league option remaining, and it’s possible that both could yet emerge as viable pieces in the ’pen (or that injuries elsewhere in the rotation will keep one or both in a starting role). Howard’s emergence as a top-half-of-the-rotation complement to Aaron Nola is a best-case scenario for the organization as a whole, but that could still have a significant individual impact on pitchers like Pivetta, Velasquez, Ranger Suarez, Cole Irvin, Enyel De Los Santos and JoJo Romero.

Quick Hits: Howard, International Prospects, Smith, Pirates

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A shortened 2020 season would make Spencer Howard a larger factor in the Phillies’ plans, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  Since Howard threw only 71 minor league innings in 2019 due to shoulder problems and was shut down at midseason, the Phils were going to ease him back into action this year under an innings limit at both the minor league and (if all things progressed well) Major League levels.  If the 2020 season ends up being something of an abbreviated sprint, however, the right-handed prospect could end up pitching for Philadelphia as early as the new Opening Day, working in a starting or relief role and still potentially not approaching an innings cap that Lauber estimates could be around 130 frames of work.

A few more items as we kick off Sunday…

  • Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) looks at five prospects who are lined up to join Major League teams when the international signing window opens on July 2.  The Padres, Brewers, Braves, Indians, and Rangers have already been respectively connected to each of the five youngsters, with Atlanta and Cleveland each prepared to give out bonuses in the $1MM range.
  • Fraidel Liriano, another shortstop from the Dominican Republic, is expected to land the largest bonus of the quintet, as Badler writes that the Rangers will give Liriano around $1.5MM.  Liriano could eventually wind up at third base or second base rather than shortstop, though some scouts were intrigued by his hitting potential, with Liriano’s “strong hands and quick wrists, producing whippy bat speed.”
  • Twelve teams contacted Kevan Smith during the catcher’s free agent stint this winter, Smith tells John Perrotto of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, though he was surprised to be on the open market at all.  The Angels non-tendered Smith rather than go through the arbitration process with him (MLBTR projected Smith to earn a $1.3MM salary in 2020), a decision that left Smith feeling “pretty stunned…I thought I was on solid footing there.”  Smith ended up signing a minor league deal with the Rays after surveying his options, saying, “You start looking around and see what’s going to be your best opportunity and what team you’re most comfortable with.  You pick and choose, and it comes down to who’s the most interested.  I definitely felt the Rays wanted me to be here.”  Playing in Tampa Bay also brings Smith to the East Coast and at least a bit closer to his home in Pennsylvania, though the Pittsburgh native said he didn’t hear from the Pirates this winter, despite the Bucs’ need for catching.

NL Notes: Wong, Nationals, Martinez, Howard

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Some notes from around the National League:

  • Kolten Wong would be open to discussing a long-term extension with the Cardinals, he told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch this week. The 29-year-old has settled in as a productive everyday second baseman in recent seasons. Since the start of 2017, Wong has compiled a productive .274/.357/.409 slash (105 wRC+). More importantly, he’s emerged as one of the game’s top defenders at the keystone. Wong will make $10.25MM in 2020, the final guaranteed year of the early-career extension he signed. St. Louis also holds a $12.5MM club option ($1MM) on his services that would easily be exercised if he continues to produce at his recent levels.
  • The Nationals’ World Series winning 2019 season started dreadfully, as they won just 19 of their first 50 games. Last fall, ownership said they never considered parting ways with manager Dave Martinez amidst the slow start. One more bad week last May, though, and the front office could have contemplated a change, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. One name discussed internally as a potential Martinez replacement: Buck Showalter, who, as Rosenthal notes, worked with Nats GM Mike Rizzo in Arizona from 1998-2000. Of course, that’s little more than an historical footnote now, as Martinez should be on solid footing after leading a remarkable turnaround. He and Rizzo are each entering the final guaranteed year of their contracts (although the Nationals have an option on Martinez for 2021). That said, neither Martinez nor Rizzo expressed worry about their situations as camp opens, and Rosenthal writes that “chances are” both will eventually work out extensions.
  • The Phillies plan to start top pitching prospect Spencer Howard slowly in 2020, the organization tells Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The hope is to conserve some innings in the early going so the organization needn’t worry about shutting Howard down if they find themselves in a playoff race. “Every pitch he throws in March is a pitch he’s not going to be able to throw in September,” GM Matt Klentak told Lauber. “It’s not because something is wrong, and it’s not because we don’t like him. It’s because we like him a lot, and we need to set him up for success to pitch deep into the season this year.” The 23-year-old, Baseball America’s #27 overall prospect, threw fewer than 100 minor-league innings in 2019, in part due to a midseason shutdown with shoulder soreness. Nevertheless, it seems he’s likely to make his MLB debut at some point in 2020 now that his arm is fully healthy.

Phillies Continue To Have Interest In Mike Minor

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The Phillies were one of several teams linked to Rangers left-hander Mike Minor during offseason trade talks, and with the deadline approaching, “the Phillies continue to maintain interest in” Minor’s services, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman writes.

Needless to say, Minor has only elevated his stock in the eyes of any interested parties in the wake of his strong 2019 season.  Minor ranked 31st on MLBTR’s recent list of the top 60 trade deadline candidates, though the southpaw would rocket up the standings if the Rangers were to give a clearer indication that they were shopping Minor rather than retaining him for their own (perhaps fading) postseason push.

A four-game losing streak has dropped Texas to 9.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West and five games out of a wild card berth.  The Rangers are still a solid 50-46 overall and they begin a three-game series against Houston on Friday.  Plus, the Rangers also play the last-place Mariners four times before the July 31st trade deadline, so there’s even more of an opportunity to make up ground.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels has reportedly remained open to the idea of dealing Minor even with Texas on the outskirts of the race, since Minor represents such a major trade chip for a team that, realistically, is still closer to a roster reload (if not an outright rebuild) than they are to being legitimate contenders.  Minor is under contract through the 2020 season and owed roughly $13.46MM between now and the end of his deal — between that extra year of control, the very reasonable salary, and Minor’s impressive performance, he should net a substantial haul in a trade.

With this in mind, the Phils would have to further deplete a minor league system that was already thinned out by some big offseason trades.  Speculatively, Seidman writes that the Phillies might have to give up something like right-hander Spencer Howard, a young outfield piece (like Adam Haseley or former first overall pick Mickey Moniak), and probably a third prospect as well (if one of a lesser caliber) for Minor.  Philadelphia has already received trade interest in Howard, its second-round pick from the 2017 draft who has thus far posted big strikeout numbers in his young career, though Seidman notes that the Phillies “have been uninterested in moving” Howard in response to these prior offers.

The Phillies are known to be looking at adding both starting and relief pitching at the deadline, with such names as Robbie Ray and Mychal Givens connected to the team in recent reports.  Like Minor, these pitchers are all controlled beyond the 2019 season, which makes sense given the recent insinuation from team president Andy MacPhail that the Phillies weren’t likely to give up their top prospects for rental players.

Pitching Notes: Cueto, Kikuchi, Holland, Happ, Howard

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MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes spoke with agent Bryce Dixon about Nelson Cruz’s market yesterday at the Winter Meetings, and Tim also got an update on another Dixon client, Johnny Cueto.  It isn’t yet clear when the Giants right-hander will be back on the mound in the wake of Tommy John surgery last August, though Dixon is optimistic about both a full recovery for Cueto and potentially a return late this season.  Dixon’s full comments:

“The rehab is progressing on schedule. He says his arm feels great, he’s working out a ton. At the earliest, he could throw in the minors like middle/end of August, maybe see some Major League action in September. But it’s a wait-and-see, once he starts throwing, how it reacts. But the good news is he’s told me that his arm feels great. He doesn’t have any pain. The pain that he felt is all gone. The way he’s working out right now, I believe that when he comes back and he’s back in top form – obviously it’s going to take him a little bit of time to get back to that form – I think he’ll be as good if not better. If he can get back to how his arm felt prior, he’s such a different guy mentally than he was when he first came up when he was throwing so hard, that he’s got so many more tricks in the bag than he had back then, that I think about it, I’m like man, if he comes back 100% and is throwing like he did earlier in his career, wow, he could come back and be really, really special. Even more special than he had been before the surgery.”

Here’s more on some notable hurlers….

  • Yusei Kikuchi will meet with interested teams later this month in Los Angeles, Kikuchi’s agent Scott Boras told reporters (including Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle) today.  The Japanese left-hander has received interest from several teams but it will still be a matter of weeks before he signs with a Major League team.  Kikuchi’s 30-day posting window opened on December 4, so there isn’t any rush towards a deal.
  • The Rangers have yet to check in on Derek Holland, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter).  The club is known to be on the hunt for relatively inexpensive pitching, and the Rangers have at least internally discussed the possibility of trying to lure Holland for another stint in Texas.  Sullivan notes, however, that Holland’s preference would be to remain with the Giants or stay in the National League.
  • The Phillies aren’t willing to go beyond a two-year deal for J.A. Happ and expect the left-hander to sign with another team, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb tweets.  Several teams have offered Happ two-year contracts, though the latest reports have the veteran southpaw closing in on a three-year agreement to remain with the Yankees.
  • Before the Mariners dealt Jean Segura to the Phillies for Carlos Santana and J.P. Crawford, Seattle also tried to obtain pitching prospect Spencer Howard in the trade, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports.  The 22-year-old Howard was a second-round pick for the Phillies in the 2017 draft, and he has posted big strikeout numbers over his first two professional seasons.  Salibury figures other teams will also ask, or have already asked, about Howard’s availability, though the Phils surely aren’t too eager to part with such an intriguing young arm.  There is a fair amount of other pitching depth in Philadelphia’s system, however, to potentially make Howard somewhat expendable at the right price.  MLB.com ranks Howard a fairly modest 18th in their ranking of the top 30 Phillies prospects, with seven other pitchers ahead of Howard on the list.

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