- The Twins now seem likely to deal righty Brandon Kintzler as the volume of phone calls increases, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggests on Twitter. The opposite is true of Marlins starter Dan Straily, Feinsand tweets. While Straily continues to be discussed, there hasn’t been any evident traction.
Marlins Rumors
Marlins Rumors: Gordon, Ellis
The Marlins “are extremely open to discussing” a Dee Gordon trade, reports Jerry Crasnick of ESPN (Twitter link). Gordon has been on teams’ radars in recent weeks, but now there’s “not much traffic” regarding the second baseman, per Crasnick. With roughly $41MM coming his way through 2021, the 29-year-old isn’t cheap, nor has he regained the effectiveness he showed from 2014-15. Gordon missed half of 2016 thanks to a performance-enhancing drug suspension and has slashed a meek .282/.323/.347 in 783 plate appearances dating back to last season. He has stolen 67 bases over that time, though, including 30 this year, and drawn plus marks in the field from defensive runs saved (eight) and Ultimate Zone Rating (8.1).
While a Gordon trade before Monday’s deadline may not be in the offing, it seems Marlins reserve catcher A.J. Ellis will switch uniforms. Along with the previously reported Cubs, the Rockies are in on the 36-year-old, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. With a .233/.314/.411 batting line, Rockies catchers have posted the worst wRC+ (45) in the majors this season. They’re looking for help behind the plate as a result, but Ellis hasn’t been a whole lot better than their choices with the bat (.232/.300/.341 in 91 PAs). Defensively, Ellis has had a rough pitch-framing season, per StatCorner, though he has outdone Rockies starter Tony Wolters in that regard. It seems the right-handed-hitting Ellis and the lefty-swinging Wolters would form a platoon.
Brewers, Marlins Discussing Dan Straily
The Brewers and Marlins are “engaged in ongoing dialogue” about Miami right-hander Dan Straily, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (on Twitter). Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald first noted the Brewers’ interest in Straily.
A report Friday indicated that the Marlins had taken Straily off the market after briefly shopping him, yet they continue to discuss him as Monday’s trade deadline nears. In theory, Straily should represent a cheaper alternative to the Athletics’ Sonny Gray, the most desirable controllable starter available. However, one National League executive told Jon Heyman of FanRag that the Marlins have placed a “Sonny Gray type price” on Straily, whom they seemingly want to keep.
Straily is “no Sonny Gray,” one rival exec told Heyman, but he’d still bring back a legitimate return in his own right. The 28-year-old is an established major league starter who’s making a near-minimum salary now and comes with arbitration eligibility through 2020, so moving him would help the Marlins restock their fallow farm system.
After logging appealing results in Cincinnati last year, where he registered a 3.76 ERA, 7.62 K/9 and a 3.43 BB/9 over 191 1/3 innings, Straily went to the Marlins in an offseason trade involving righty Luis Castillo and has fared well again in 2017. Straily has thrown 117 1/3 frames and recorded a 3.84 ERA, 8.21 K/9 and a 2.53 BB/9. While Straily’s ground-ball rate is at just 34.4 percent (up from 32 percent a year ago), he has offset that with a 14.4 percent infield fly mark that ranks No. 1 among major league starters.
As was the case last year, ERA indicators such as FIP (4.38), xFIP (4.65) and SIERA (4.32) aren’t really buying into Straily’s success, and he’s once again benefiting from a low batting average on balls in play (.272 this season, .239 in 2016). Statcast data paints a rosier picture, though: Straily’s weighted on-base average against is a strong .318, but his xwOBA is an even better .298, per Baseball Savant (Gray’s is a strikingly similar .296).
Thanks to Straily’s performance and affordable control, it’s easy to see why teams – including the Brewers – would want him. Milwaukee has lost nine of 14 since the All-Star break to fall to 55-50 and lose its grip on the National League Central, which the Cubs now lead by a half-game, and seen its playoff odds dwindle significantly. While a postseason trip might not be in the cards for the upstart Brewers this year, acquiring Straily would give them a third proven big league starter who’s under wraps at palatable costs through 2020. The team already has Chase Anderson, who’s soon to return from a lengthy absence stemming from an oblique injury, and Jimmy Nelson. Adding Straily to that duo would ostensibly increase the Brewers’ chances to contend this season and in future years.
Variety Of Teams Interested In Dan Straily
- The Brewers, Royals, Rockies and Yankees all have interest in Marlins starter Dan Straily, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes (Twitter links). Yesterday, a report indicated that the Marlins had “taken [Straily] off the market,” although, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted, it would have been surprising if Straily truly were completely unavailable when the Marlins were reportedly recently initiating contact with other teams about him. At last check, the Marlins were hoping to land a terrific trade package for Straily, who’s in his second straight year as a productive starter, with a 3.84 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over 117 1/3 innings. He also has three years of control remaining after this one, potentially making him an interesting addition for a team like the Brewers or Yankees that has an eye on the future as well as the present.
Cubs Still Interested In A.J. Ellis
- The Cubs remain interested in Marlins catcher A.J. Ellis, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. A report earlier this week from MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro connected the Cubs to Ellis, who would provide Chicago with a veteran backup to Willson Contreras. (Frisaro tweets that two other teams are interested in Ellis as well and that the Cubs might not ultimately land him.) The Cubs also continue to look for a reliever. “That’s what you would be looking for — that high-leverage, later-inning guy that you’re really comfortable with — so you can spread the work out a little bit more evenly,” says Cubs manager Joe Maddon, who adds that his guess is that the team will make another move of some sort before the deadline.
Mets Acquire AJ Ramos
10:08pm: The Marlins have announced the trade.
10:02pm: The Mets are sending minor league right-hander Merandy Gonzalez and minor league outfielder Ricardo Cespedes to the Marlins to complete the trade, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter).
9:48pm: In a surprising development, the Mets have struck a deal to acquire closer AJ Ramos from the Marlins, reports MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal (on Twitter). The Mets are sellers at this year’s deadline, but Ramos remains under control through the 2018 season, and the Mets have reportedly been intent on contending next season, so Ramos will help in that regard.
The Mets are likely to trade closer Addison Reed, an impending free agent, between now and Monday’s non-waiver deadline, so they stood to lose their top 2018 setup option either to free agency or trade. Ramos could actually close for the Mets until Jeurys Familia is healthy enough to return, then ultimately settle into a setup role. He’s earning $6.55MM in 2017 and will be eligible for arbitration once more this winter before hitting the open market after the 2018 season.
Ramos has a solid, if unspectacular 3.63 ERA through 39 2/3 innings this season, but he’s been a generally dominant option out of the Miami ’pen dating back to 2014. Over the past four seasons, Ramos has pitched to a combined 2.61 ERA with 10.6 BB/9, 4.7 BB/9 and a 40.6 percent ground-ball rate through 238 innings. His lack of control, of course, isn’t ideal for a late-inning reliever, but Ramos has consistently been able to strikeout between 10 and 11 batters per nine frames, which has helped to mitigate many of those free passes.
With Ramos in the fold for the 2018 campaign, next year’s Mets bullpen looks like it’ll be anchored by Familia, Ramos, Jerry Blevins and perhaps rookie right-hander Paul Sewald, who has averaged 11 K’s per nine innings himself through 41 innings in his first taste of big league action.
Gonzalez and Cespedes rank ninth and 22nd, respectively, on the Mets’ midseason top 30 prospects list over at MLB.com. Through a combined 106 innings between two Class-A levels, the 21-year-old Gonzalez has worked to a 1.78 ERA with 7.6 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 41 percent ground-ball rate. MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo write that his fastball sits around 93 mph but can reach 96-97 mph when needed, and the young righty also has an above-average curveball with an improving changeup. Gonzalez is listed at 6’0″ and 216 pounds, so he’s a bit short for a starter, though that frame is hardly any sort of clear indicator that he’s better suited for a relief role.
The 19-year-old Cespedes has been facing much older competition across short-season Class-A and full-season Class-A ball this year, but he hasn’t fared well at the plate against his more experienced opponents. Through 108 plate appearances — he’s spent a fair bit of time on the minor league DL — Cespedes has batted .255/.283/.294. Ugly numbers aside, Cespedes was inked for a fairly sizable $725K bonus out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old and draws praise from Callis and Mayo for his yet untapped tools.
MLB.com’s report notes that while he’ll need a lot to go right to reach his ceiling, the upside for Cespedes is a five-tool right fielder. He’s playing center field right now but has the arm for right along with bat speed, occasional pop and at least average speed. Cespedes will join fellow 19-year-old Brayan Hernandez, acquired in the Marlins’ David Phelps trade with Seattle, as a toolsy outfielder with plenty of upside that could be several years from the big leagues but gives the team plenty to dream on as he develops.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Cubs May Have Interest In A.J. Ellis
- The Cubs have been oft-connected to Tigers catcher Alex Avila as they seek to acquire a more experienced backup option to young Willson Contreras, but MLB Network’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that Avila is one of many names on the Cubs’ list. He’s not a priority for the Cubs, per Rosenthal, who adds that Chicago is seeking more of a defense-first upgrade. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets that Chicago could be in on Marlins veteran A.J. Ellis as a possible option. Among the catchers that are likely to be available, Rene Rivera may well have the best defensive reputation.
Martin Prado To Undergo Knee Surgery
TODAY, 12:03pm: The procedure wasn’t a major one, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald (via Twitter). Prado could return in three to five weeks after a “cleanup” operation.
9:18am: Prado will undergo surgery, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). The precise nature of the procedure and anticipated recovery period are not yet known, but clearly he won’t be a trade candidate for teams looking at third base options.
YESTERDAY: With his knee failing to progress as hoped, Marlins third baseman Martin Prado is weighing a surgical approach, manager Don Mattingly tells Craig Davis of the Sun Sentinel (via Twitter). He’ll make a final decision tomorrow.
The 33-year-old infielder had drawn some interest as a trade candidate. In the midst of a roster reshaping and organizational sale, the Marlins have seemed motivated to move some of the sizable contract — three years and $40MM — that Prado just began this season.
Leg troubles and performance problems, though, had already made a trade seem like an unlikely proposition. Prado was slashing just .250/.279/.357 in his 147 plate appearances on the year, and recently hit the DL for the third time after two prior placements connected to hamstring troubles.
In any event, today’s news makes it all but certain that Prado won’t be traded in the next few days. His contract will surely clear waivers in August, so he could conceivably be dealt at a later point, though that’d likely also require that he make it back on the field in time to prove his health.
Latest On Dan Straily
TODAY: After shopping Straily yesterday, the Marlins have “taken him off the market” today, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).
That said, it is difficult to imagine that Straily simply cannot be obtained now when just yesterday the club was reaching out to rivals to gauge interest. It’s more likely, perhaps, that Miami has simply not found any indication that a major package can be achieved.
That interpretation lines up what MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand is hearing (Twitter link). As he puts it, the Fish are “still very much open” to making a deal on Straily. (That said, given the remaining control over Straily, the team surely won’t just be taking the best offer.)
YESTERDAY, 5:43pm: Eight teams have spoken with the Marlins on Straily, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro (via Twitter). But it seems that most of the contact has been initiated by the Miami organization, per a tweet from Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network, with hopes of finding a “home run” of a trade package.
12:51pm: After focusing primarily on trades involving their relievers over the past couple of weeks, the Marlins have now informed teams that they’re open to trading right-hander Dan Straily, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter).
The 28-year-old Straily was essentially a free pickup for the Reds in Spring Training 2016 and has continually built up increasing trade value over the past season and a half. Cincinnati dealt him to Miami in exchange for a prospect package headlined by flamethrowing rookie starter Luis Castillo this offseason, and it’s possible that the market for controllable starters is thin enough that the Fish can recoup comparable or even superior value after four more strong months out of Straily.
While Straily definitely won’t be mistake for a top-of-the-rotation starter, he’s been a durable mid-rotation piece dating back to Opening Day 2016. Over his past 308 2/3 innings, Straily has averaged 7.8 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 with a 33 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 3.79 ERA. Alternative metrics like FIP and xFIP don’t love Straily, though as an extreme fly-ball pitcher, he’s more likely to sustain his .251 BABIP than a more ground-ball oriented pitcher would be. (Fly-balls in play, generally speaking, are easier to turn into outs than grounders.)
Straily’s true value, however, comes through the simple fact that he’s a solid mid-rotation piece that is controlled not just through the 2017 campaign but all the way through 2020. He’s yet to reach arbitration eligibility (though he will this offseason) and should be affordable, from a financial standpoint, for any team in the Majors.
The Marlins have begun to replenish a perilously thin farm system by trading David Phelps to the Mariners, and it stands to reason that they’ll also part with closer AJ Ramos and, perhaps, Straily over the next 96 hours. Virtually all reports on the team have suggested that they’re not open to trading core offensive players like Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton and J.T. Realmuto, and the team has several potential trade chips on the disabled list in the form of Kyle Barraclough, Edinson Volquez and Martin Prado.
Whether their likely inability to cash in on those players impacted Miami’s willingness to move Straily isn’t clear, but now is among the best times possible to be marketing an affordable, controllable starter — even if his ceiling is that of a workhorse rather than that of an ace. Moving both Straily and Ramos in the coming days won’t dramatically overhaul the Miami farm system, but it’d further begin to build up a minor league reservoir of talent that has been thinned out by trades and injuries to recent top picks Tyler Kolek and Braxton Garrett.
Marlins Place Bour, Riddle On Disabled List
- The Marlins announced today that first baseman Justin Bour and shortstop JT Riddle have been placed on the 10-day DL due to a right oblique strain and left biceps tendinitis, respectively. There was no timetable given for the return of either player, but oblique strains typically cost a player at least a month. Bour didn’t seem especially likely to be moved anyhow, but the fact that he looks to be facing an absence of a few weeks further limits the chance of any trade involving the 29-year-old slugger.
