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Minor Moves: Perez, LaRoche, Nickeas, Cardinals

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Here are today's outright assignments and minor moves from around the league…

  • The Blue Jays announced that they outrighted left-hander Juan Perez off the 40-man roster and re-signed him to a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. The 35-year-old southpaw posted a 3.69 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 31 2/3 innings for Toronto this season and held lefties to a .200/.280/.333 batting line.
  • The Blue Jays also announced that they've re-signed catcher Mike Nickeas and and infielder Andy LaRoche to minor league deals with invites to Spring Training. Nickeas, 30, posted just a .507 OPS at Triple-A this season while LaRoche, the younger brother of Adam LaRoche, slashed .271/.339/.433 in 104 games at the same level.
  • The Cardinals announced that they have outrighted catcher Rob Johnson, outfielder Brock Peterson and outfielder Adron Chambers off their 40-man roster. Each has elected free agency, per the MLB.com Transactions page. Johnson spent most of the season in Triple-A, but found his way onto a big league roster for the seventh straight season. In 829 Major League plate appearances he's a .200/.275/.295 hitter. Peterson, 29, made his Major League debut after 11 seasons between the minors and indepedent ball. He collected just two hits in 26 at-bats but dominated Triple-A, hitting .296/.364/.531 with 25 homers in 508 PAs. The 27-year-old Chambers hit .252/.338/.387 with eight homers and 16 steals in the minors, adding 29 big league plate appearances and making the Cards' postseason roster as well.

Arbitration Eligibles: St. Louis Cardinals

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Cardinals are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

The Cardinals added Axford in a late August trade with the Brewers, and the 30-year-old righty did a nice job in 10 1/3 regular season innings for St. Louis, picking up another 5 2/3 innings in the postseason.  He recorded 19 holds this year, after amassing 106 saves previously in his career.  Saves pay well in arbitration, getting Axford a $5MM salary his first time through.  Axford would be useful to pencil into next year's pen, with Edward Mujica up for free agency and a decent-sized contract and Carlos Martinez being considered for the rotation.  However, Axford's projected arbitration cost is a little steep, making a non-tender likely if the Cardinals are not able to find a team willing to take him on in trade.

Freese represents a tougher decision.  The MVP of the 2011 postseason, Freese hit .262/.340/.381 in 521 regular season plate appearances this year and .179/.258/.268 in the playoffs.  He was quite good as recently as 2012, and to non-tender him seems drastic given a $4.4MM salary projection.  If Freese stays with the Cardinals, it seems likely the presence of Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong will affect his playing time.  The Cards could also trade Freese this offseason.

The Cardinals are a team with few deficiencies, but center field is another potential area of upgrade.  Jay, 29 in March, hit .276/.351/.370 in 628 plate appearances.  At the least, he remains a useful player at $3.4MM.  Jay's situation is similar to Freese: a non-tender seems unlikely, a trade is possible, and he may be pushed for playing time if he stays with St. Louis.  Descalso, meanwhile, seems likely to have a utility role on next year's club.

Salas, 29 in May, was the Cardinals' surprise closer for much of 2011, but spent time in the minors in 2012.  This year, he battled a shoulder injury and bounced up and down from Triple-A.  With a projected salary under a million bucks, the Cardinals might be able to find a taker in a trade if Salas is not part of their plans for 2014.

Assuming the Cardinals tender contracts to Freese, Jay, Descalso, and Salas, they're looking at an estimated $9.7MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Central Notes: Jimenez, Carpenter, Twins

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The Indians say they want to keep starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer writes. The team extended Jimenez a qualifying offer on Monday, although Jimenez is expected to decline it. "We’ve been consistent since the season ended," says GM Chris Antonetti. "We’d like to have Ubaldo back. He played a huge part in our success last year, especially in the second half." Hoynes had previously written that there was "no chance" the Indians would sign Jimenez long-term, however, arguing that Tim Lincecum's contract with the Giants set the market too high for the Indians to be able to keep Jimenez. It would still be surprising, then, if Jimenez wound up staying in Cleveland. Here are more notes from the Central divisions.

  • Chris Carpenter's playing career appears to be over, but Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says he and Carpenter have discussed a possible future role for Carpenter with the organization, MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch reports. Carpenter already lives in St. Louis, and might be amenable to continuing on with the Cardinals in some sort of non-playing capacity.
  • The Twins are currently focusing on pitching in the free agent market, ESPN1500's Darren Wolfson tweets. They may later turn their attention to finding a hitter, Wolfson suggests, but so far they haven't. The Twins allowed 788 runs in 2013, worse than any team except the Astros, so finding a couple extra arms appears to be crucial for Minnesota this offseason.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals fell to the Red Sox in the World Series last week, but with a roster well-stocked with young talent, their short- and long-term futures appear bright.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles

Free Agents

With a terrific 2013 season, a strong big-league core in place and more young talent on the way, the Cardinals are in excellent shape, and nothing that happens this offseason is likely to change that. Their four free agents include two players (Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal) who didn't even play in 2013, which means that they'll only have to deal with the possible departures of two players (Carlos Beltran and Edward Mujica) who made meaningful contributions. (They'll also likely lose Jake Westbrook, whose option they recently declined.) That will leave them with only a few areas that they clearly need to address this offseason. And with Beltran, Carpenter, Furcal, Mujica and Jake Westbrook's combined salary of almost $45MM now available to spend, they'll have plenty of cash on hand.

Besides Mujica, every pitcher who made an impact in 2013, including many who will continue to make league-minimum salaries, will be available to return to a staff that finished fifth in the Majors in runs allowed. If anything, there's a chance that the Cardinals' pitching might be even better next year, given the likely departure of  Westbrook, who threw 116 2/3 of the Cardinals' weakest innings in 2013. The likely recipient of many of those innings will be 2013 rookie Michael Wacha, who pitched well in 64 2/3 regular-season innings and was nearly unhittable throughout much of the postseason. Three other spots in the rotation will likely be taken by perennial Cy Young candidate Adam Wainwright, top youngster Shelby Miller and workhorse Lance Lynn.

That leaves Joe Kelly, who isn't nearly as good as his 2.69 ERA in 2013 suggests but is more than capable in the back end of a rotation. Jaime Garcia will also likely be a a possibility — he's currently rehabbing the shoulder injury that shut him down in May. Carlos Martinez could also vy for a rotation spot, and Tyler Lyons will be available as depth. Tim Cooney, who's coming off an outstanding season at Double-A Springfield, may emerge as a possibility later in the season. With front-line starting pitching and quality depth, there is little reason for the Cardinals to pursue a starting pitcher in free agency.

They'll also have few meaningful losses in their starting lineup, although there are plenty of moving parts. They're set with Yadier Molina at catcher, Allen Craig and Matt Adams at first base, and Matt Holliday in the outfield. At their other outfield positions, letting Beltran depart might open up more opportunities for Adams (with Craig moving to the outfield so that Adams can play first) and top prospect Oscar Taveras. They also have Jon Jay, who they could leave in center field or upon whom they could attempt to upgrade. Kolten Wong will likely become the Cardinals' primary second baseman, with Matt Carpenter, a potential MVP candidate in 2013, moving to third. The Cardinals could also keep Wong in Triple-A if need be, leave Carpenter at second, and stick with David Freese at the hot corner.

That leaves shortstop, which was a glaring weakness for the Cardinals all season, with starter Pete Kozma playing at replacement value and showing few signs of the ability to climb much above it. The free agent class at shortstop isn't outstanding, but Stephen Drew or perhaps Jhonny Peralta would make sense. There may also be options on the trade market, although Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies doesn't appear to be a possibility. In any case, expect the Cardinals to do something to upgrade the position.

The Cardinals can rely on their deep well of power arms to fill out their bullpen. Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist emerged in 2013 and should continue to play key roles in 2014. Martinez and Kelly will also be good bullpen candidates if they aren't in the rotation. Lefty Randy Choate and ground ball specialist Seth Maness will also be back, and Jason Motte will return after Tommy John surgery shut him down for the 2013 season. As effective as Mujica was this year, there's no reason for the Cardinals to overpay for his services, given their stockpile.

If nothing else, the Cardinals can improve by acquiring a shortstop who can hit even a little. There's also still room for them to improve on the defensive front, not only by replacing Beltran and perhaps Jay, but also by implementing more defensive shifts, one of the few areas where they're behind the rest of the game. The Cardinals limited their number of shifts in 2013 upon encountering resistance from some of their pitchers. They plan to be more aggressive in implementing shifts next year, which should meaningfully improve their defense.

If the Cardinals take a step backwards next season, it might be because their three top 2013 performers regress somewhat. Matt Carpenter, Wainwright and Molina all posted in excess of 5 WAR in 2013, and expecting them to repeat their 2013 showings may be asking a lot. Carpenter's 7.0 WAR season, in particular, likely represents a career peak, and he shouldn't be counted on to do that again.

That's the curse of being an excellent team, though — a 97-win season isn't easy to repeat. Still, the Cardinals have a star-studded roster, and a farm system that should be able to continue to deliver solid contributors after others depart.

That means the Cardinals don't have to be aggressive this offseason. They could play it safe, find an upgrade at shortstop, and get ready for 2014. If they do want to get ambitious, though, there are ways for them to do that, too, as the New York Post's Joel Sherman recently noted. Perhaps the Cardinals could upgrade by pursuing a big name like Jacoby Ellsbury in the outfield — Ellsbury would represent a big upgrade over Jay, both offensively and defensively. (With the No. 31 pick in the 2014 draft and a deep farm system, they won't have to worry much about losing a pick by signing a player who has been extended a qualifying offer; they'll also likely be able to replace any draft pick they might lose with the one they'll get if another team signs Beltran.) The Cardinals could also trade Taveras or Adams for help elsewhere.

Somewhat more conservatively, the Cards could trade from their pitching stockpile to acquire a shortstop. The Indians, for example, will be looking for pitching this offseason, and they can offer Asdrubal Cabrera. Alexei Ramirez or Erick Aybar might also be possibilities.

In other words, the Cards have plenty of flexibility, and aside from the shortstop position, they can make moves proactively, rather than simply acquiring players to fill obvious needs. The Cardinals' core of stars (Wainwright, Molina, Carpenter, Holliday) and recent influx of cheap, high-quality young pitching (Miller, Wacha, Lynn, Martinez, Rosenthal, Siegrist, Kelly) should put them in an enviable position for years to come.

Carlos Beltran Receives Qualifying Offer

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The Cardinals have extended a qualifying offer to right fielder Carlos Beltran, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). Should Beltran reject the qualifying offer, which is valued at one year and $14.1MM, the Cardinals will be eligible to receive a compensatory draft pick should he sign elsewhere.

Beltran saw a decline in his plate discipline, defense and offense from the right side of the dish in 2013, but he still slashed a robust .296/.339/.491 with 24 home runs in an even 600 plate appearances. In my free agent profile for Beltran last month, I predicted that he could sign a two-year, $30MM contract to cover his age 37-38 seasons. Beltran and the Yankees are rumored to have mutual interest.

You can keep track of Beltran and all of baseball's free agents this offseason by using MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker.

NL Notes: Stanton, Ruiz, Kershaw, Cardinals, Phillies

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Here are some National League notes to round out the evening …

  • The Marlins are not going to trade star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton in the offseason, newly minted GM Dan Jennings emphatically asserted. As ESPN's Jim Bowden reports (via Twitter), Jennings said that "Mr. Stanton is not available" and that the team is "building around him."
  • The Rockies are making a run at free agent catcher Carlos Ruiz, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Incumbent Wilin Rosario would presumably get some or all of his playing time at first or in the outfield if Colorado were to land Ruiz. The soon-to-be 35-year-old backstop landed at number 29 on the list of MLB's top fifty free agents compiled by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes, who sees a return to Philadelphia as the most likely scenario.
  • Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers said yesterday that he was "curious" about free agency but "open-minded going into the off-season," Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reported. He also expressed some frustration with the recent reports that he turned down a $300MM deal from the club. Now, says Hernandez's colleague Steve Dilbeck, the team may be facing something of a catch-22: the team surely must sign him at some hard-to-fathom rate, but the risks are enormous.
  • Though the Cardinals' future remains unquestionably bright given the organization's array of young talent, says Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the club faces some significant questions. If Carlos Beltran can be brought back on a reasonable deal, Miklasz writes, it is possible that the club will use super-prospect Oscar Taveras in center with a combination of Beltran, Allen Craig, Matt Adams, and Matt Holliday at first base and the corner outfield. But if Beltran leaves, he says, it is not unrealistic to think the club might pursue Jacoby Ellsbury. 
  • The club's greatest hole, of course, is at shortstop. GM John Mozeliak needs to make a proactive move at this point, says Miklasz, either by signing a player like Stephen Drew or Jhonny Peralta or by trading from the team's pitching depth. Fellow Post-Dispatch writer Rick Hummel looks at some possible trade targets for the team.
  • For the Phillies to return to contention, writes Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, the club must spend big in free agency. Gelb says the club has ample room to increase spending above the $189MM luxury tax line if it wants, though GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has expressed hesitation. "Obviously, we had a lot less people coming to the ballpark this year," Amaro said at season's end. "We have to be cognizant of that. We have been greatly supported – our payroll was, what, $165MM? That should be enough to put a contender on the field." Dierkes sees the Phils as the front-runners for Nelson Cruz, Ricky Nolasco, Ruiz, and Edward Mujica, though he notes that it all depends whether the team is willing to tack on $40MM+ to its 2014 obligations.

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs

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Big changes are in store for the Cardinals' roster, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. In the bullpen, Strauss lists John Axford and Edward Mujica as two players who are unlikely to return next season, while David Freese, Pete Kozma and Carlos Beltran could be gone on the position player side. Let's run through the latest from around the NL Central:

  • The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold provides a postmortem on the Cardinals' season in a radio interview with 101Sports.com.
  • St. Louis brass have yet to decide on whether they'll try to re-up with Beltran, though parting ways with the outfielder would allow them to start Allen Craig in right field, as the club would like to do, Goold says. Such a move would also open a spot for outfield prospect Oscar Taveras, while Matt Adams could get regular time at first base.
  • The Pirates must address holes at first base and right field this winter, and will probably also look to acquire a starter, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Brink profiles several options that are available in free agency, including James Loney at first and Corey Hart in right.
  • MLBTR's Steve Adams examined departing Pirates first baseman Justin Morneau in an entry in our Free Agent Profile series earlier today.
  • Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times rounds up the current state of the Cubs' managerial search, reporting that the club expects to have hired a skipper sometime around the end of the week. 

Cardinals Decline Jake Westbrook’s Option

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The Cardinals have declined their half of the $9.5MM mutual option on Jake Westbrook's contract, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (on Twitter). Westbrook will be paid a $1MM buyout.

The 36-year-old Westbrook posted a 4.63 ERA in 116 2/3 innings for the Cards this season, maintaining a strong ground-ball rate (56.3 percent) as has come to be expected of the veteran. However, his already low strikeout rate dropped, and he wound up posting a career-worst 44-to-50 K/BB ratio. The writing was on the wall for Westbrook, as he was left off the team's postseason roster.

Typically very durable, Westbrook also saw a pair of stints on the 15-day disabled list in 2013, missing a month with elbow inflammation and another two weeks with a strained lower back. Westbrook may be able to find a Major League deal this offseason in free agency based on his track record, but the two DL stints and the fact that he walked more batters than he struck out in 2013 would mean his guarantee would be just a fraction of this season's $8.75MM salary.

The Cardinals are well-equipped to move on from Westbrook, with Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Jaime Garcia all present as internal options for the starting rotation.

NL Notes: Mozeliak, Mets, Zambrano

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John Mozeliak followed an unusual career path that led him to the Cardinals' GM job, Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post writes. Mozeliak's career in baseball began when a connection led to him taking then-Rockies pitcher Bryn Smith on a fly-fishing trip. That led to an invitation to pitch batting practice for the Rockies, and from there, Mozeliak worked his way into baseball operations. He headed to St. Louis in 1995, after Rockies assistant GM Walt Jocketty took the Cardinals' GM job. Mozeliak then took over for Jocketty in 2007 and has since led the Cardinals to one World Series title. Now, of course, they're pursuing a second one. Here are more notes from around the National League.

  • Mets chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon says that his team would have made an offer to Jose Dariel Abreu if he were a corner outfielder rather than a first baseman, Newsday's Marc Carig tweets. The Mets could certainly use a powerful corner outfielder, but they also have little stability at first base, where Ike Davis and Lucas Duda were disappointing last season. Wilpon also told Carig the Mets had a "glut" of first basemen, but none of them performed particularly well last year, perhaps with the exception of depth piece Josh Satin. One wonders why these players might have impeded the Mets from making a major signing.
  • Wilpon says the Mets have received calls from teams trying to trade for a first baseman, tweets Carig.
  • Former Cubs star Carlos Zambrano wants to keep pitching, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune reports. "He’s playing winter ball and wants to continue his career," says agent Barry Praver. Zambrano, who last appeared in the big leagues in 2012 with the Marlins, pitched in the Phillies system in 2013, but his comeback attempt stalled due to shoulder issues.

Quick Hits: Red Sox, Cardinals, Tigers

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The Red Sox and Cardinals can continue to count on help from their farm system, Baseball America's Matt Eddy writes. Eddy has organized Baseball America's recent lists of the top 20 prospects in each minor league into rankings that approximate the amount of impact talent in each team's system, as well as how close that talent is the the Majors. The Red Sox rank first, thanks largely to Xander Bogaerts. The Cardinals, led by Oscar Taveras and Michael Wacha, rank eighth. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • GM John Mozeliak believes the Cardinals' success could lead other teams to pursue their coaches, scouts and front office personnel, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. "This success is likely going to propel some people because there is no doubt you’re going to see (clubs) trying to look at ways to emulate what’s happening here," says Mozeliak. "So, frankly, you’ve got to have quality succession plans in line, and prepare. I think it’s a great compliment." Coaches Jose Oquendo and Mike Aldrete might wind up being managerial candidates for other teams, for example.
  • The Tigers will interview Padres special assistant Brad Ausmus and bench coach Rich Renteria for their manager job, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The Tigers had already interviewed internal candidate Lloyd McClendon, along with Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach.
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