Cardinals right-hander Sonny Gray took home the win in today’s game against the Giants, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote this afternoon following the game that San Francisco may have an especially close eye on the 35-year-old right-hander. That’s because Gray is, in Slusser’s words, “on the Giants’ radar” and “very much a potential target” for the club this offseason.
It’s not hard to see why San Francisco might be interested in bringing in a pitcher like Gray. After all, Logan Webb and Robbie Ray are the only two players locked into the Giants’ 2026 rotation. Veteran right-hander Justin Verlander is ticketed for free agency, and while it’s possible than Landen Roupp has done enough to earn himself a spot in the rotation with 22 solid starts for the Giants this year, Kyle Harrison’s work in 24 starts with San Francisco last year wasn’t enough to keep a rotation spot headed into the 2025 campaign. With Harrison and Jordan Hicks both having been dealt to Boston as part of the Rafael Devers trade, it stands to reason that the Giants will look to add at least one starter this offseason. Two wouldn’t even be far-fetched for the club, particularly if Verlander walks in free agency.
It’s against that backdrop that the Giants are likely, at least in Slusser’s view, to check in on Gray. The veteran hasn’t looked quite the same as he did when he finished second behind Gerrit Cole in AL Cy Young award voting back in 2023 with the Twins during his two years in St. Louis, but he’s generally been a quality arm for the Cardinals all the same. In 56 starts since joining the organization, Gray sports a 4.13 ERA with an exactly league average ERA+ of 100. That could be construed as Gray being little more than a back-of-the-rotation arm at this point in his career, but a 3.30 FIP, a 3.17 SIERA, and a 2.97 xFIP tell a different story.
Since arriving in St. Louis, Gray has struck out an incredible 28.3% of his opponents while issuing free passes at a clip of just 5.3%. That’s good for the sixth-best K-BB% in baseball among qualified starters over the past two seasons; only Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Paul Skenes, Logan Gilbert, and Zack Wheeler have been better in that regard. That’s impressive company to keep, and Gray has been somewhat held back by poor luck on batted balls and sequencing issues. His .314 BABIP and 68.3% strand rate are both far worse than his career norms. Not all of his poor results have been bad luck, as Gray’s 9.4% barrel rate over the past two years is the 11th-highest in the majors among qualified starters, and that’s led to a major spike in home runs. San Francisco’s Oracle Park is one of the best in baseball at suppressing homers, however, meaning that Gray’s issues with the long ball would be tamped down significantly if he were to be dealt to San Francisco.
That all leaves him looking like a strong fit to join Webb and Ray in the 2026 rotation on paper, but it’s fair to point out that a solid on-paper fit doesn’t necessarily mean that a deal will get done or is even particularly likely. Gray has been in the rumor mill as a potential trade candidate frequently over the past year but has routinely declined the opportunity to waive his no-trade clause in search of greener pastures. The Cardinals have indicated a willingness to move him both this past offseason and at this summer’s trade deadline, but Gray has rebuffed those efforts on both occasions. That doesn’t mean his feelings on the matter can’t change this offseason with the Cardinals likely to miss the postseason and a new head of baseball operations in Chaim Bloom slated to take over following John Mozeliak’s impending retirement, but as of now Gray has shown no desire to leave St. Louis behind.
Getting Gray to agree to a trade may be easier for the Giants than it would be for other clubs. As Slusser notes, Gray is very familiar with the Bay Area after spending the first four-and-a-half seasons of his career pitching for the A’s in Oakland, and during that time he played for and grew close with current Giants manager Bob Melvin. Slusser writes that Melvin and Gray have remained close in the years since their time together in Oakland, and it’s not hard to imagine that a homecoming to the place where he started his career to play for a manager he’s fond of would be a tempting offer for Gray. That’s particularly true if the Cardinals don’t look especially likely to compete in 2026 after what’s likely to be three consecutive seasons without a playoff berth.
Of course, even if Gray agrees to a deal with San Francisco, there’s still the matter of actually working out a trade with the Cardinals. St. Louis surely knows that Gray is an attractive asset and would hope to market him to more clubs than just the Giants if he agrees to be dealt, though Gray would be able to curate the list of teams he’d be willing to accept a deal to. Plenty of teams might be put off trading for the right-hander by the massive $35MM salary he’s owed in 2026 by virtue of his back-loaded contract with St. Louis, to say nothing of the $5MM buyout that will most likely be owed on a 2027 mutual option.
That’s effectively a $40MM investment on a pitcher who is more projection than production over the past two years, and Slusser suggests that the Giants would likely only be willing to offer a meaningful return for Gray’s services if the Cardinals eat a significant portion of his salary. That’s certainly not an unreasonable stance, but for a Cardinals club without much money on the books for 2026 they might prefer to just hold onto Gray in hopes he can help them compete next year or pitch well enough to command a larger return next summer if they can’t get much other than salary relief for his services.
Gray, of course, isn’t the only player who could feasibly be targeted by the Giants this winter. Slusser suggests that Luis Castillo could be made available by the Mariners this winter after the Giants pursued him last year, and perhaps one of the heavily-discussed arms from the deadline who didn’t move like Sandy Alcantara or Joe Ryan could be dealt as well. As for free agency, a number of interesting arms are set to be available including Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Brandon Woodruff, and Zac Gallen. That, of course, is in addition to Verlander, who has a 3.18 ERA with a 2.75 FIP since the All-Star break and may be a preferred option to bring back for the Giants given his second-half performance.
