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MLB Free Agents 2007: Mark Mulder

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After reading Joe Strauss’s article today in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, I got to thinking about impending free agent Mark Mulder.  The standout quote:

"Mulder is certain to seek a package with higher average annual value than the five-year, $55 million contract A.J. Burnett received last December from the Toronto Blue Jays."

I don’t doubt that he’ll want and expect this kind of money, based on his career totals of 98 victories, a 3.87 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP before age 29.  The problem with his contract (and most free agent contracts) is that he’ll be paid largely on what he’s done and not what he will do.  Burnett at least has upside.

I’m not here to bash Mulder; I know he’s still a solid innings guy and that he’s become one of the more extreme groundball pitchers in the game as his strikeout rate has declined.  He’s a decent five-win pitcher, akin to the current version of Brad Radke.

I don’t know why teams continue to overpay for this kind of production, but they do.  If you look at Mulder’s projected Marginal Value Over Replacement Player, his next five-year contract could have an annual average close to his value for the entire length of the contract.  In other words, he might make $12MM in 2007 despite being worth less than $16MM over the entire period of 2007-2011.

It’s understood that that’s the way free agency works and you have to pay a premium to get decent starting pitching.  But Mulder’s next contract looks like it will be one of the most egregious examples of a free agent mistake.  If the market overvalues starters, shouldn’t teams find other ways to acquire them or else just build a dominant offense at the expense of pitching? 

Guys like Brad Radke, Mike Mussina, Kerry Wood, Andy Pettitte, and Jason Schmidt should also hit the market after the 2006 season.  The Schmidt Derby should be a wild one, especially if he returns to form in 2006 as I’ve projected.

Old Edmonds Trade Rumor Legit?

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Some nice rumor-related digging was done recently over at Viva El Birdos.  Lboros tracked down this comment made by Mitchel Lichtman recently:

"Of course, you never know if and when a player like Edmonds will be part of a major trade. In order to stay competitive, we will eventually (soon) need to replace him in CF with either another great player (and presumably pay through the nose) or replace him with someone good (and underrated) and then upgrade at the corners and at second, and of course eventually at SS again (which is another difficult position to find bargains). We have very few, if any, position player prospects ready for the Majors anytime soon (I don’t think)."

Lichtman is a defensive guru who consults for the Cardinals, so his feelings on Edmonds trade rumors carry some weight.  You may recall a seemingly wacky Edmonds for Cano and Wang trade rumor surfacing here on November 29th.  That one was also brought to my attention via Viva El Birdos, and it originated with St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz.

Lboros covers the implications of Lichtman’s comment thoroughly, acknowledging that the rumor was feasible in November but no longer fits.  He finishes with this comment:

"The important point here isn’t whether the Edmonds-Cano-Wang rumor had any substance behind it. The point is that trading Edmonds to restructure the payroll isn’t out of the question — and that’s coming straight from a member of the Cards’ decision-making chorus."

Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities

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There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.

1.  He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.

2.  Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).

3.  The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006.  Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506.  Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.

4.  Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs.  According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.

The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee.  Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name.  Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.

Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.

Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF.  If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.

White Sox – I don’t see it.  They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth.  I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.

Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny.  Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.

Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency.  J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind.  They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.

Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely.  Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.

Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.

My ranking of the most likely suitors:  Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs.  I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.

Choices Narrowing For Weaver

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Back on January 12th, we were able to reason our way towards determining six possible suitors for Jeff Weaver.  Here was the list:

"In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels."

Since then, the Orioles traded for Kris Benson and the Cubs signed a much cheaper option in Wade Miller.  The remaining four can be re-ranked as Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Astros.  You can almost cross Houston off the list; there hasn’t been talk of them pursuing Weaver as Jose Contreras remains high on their wish list.

The Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels may offer Weaver a one year contract with an option for 2007.  It’d be wise for the Angels to lock in the innings eater after losing Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd, who combined for 381 innings in 2005.

I’d put the Angels chances of signing Weaver at 75%.  The Mets really aren’t looking to take on Weaver; he may not perform under the spotlight again and isn’t significantly better than Benson (he’s maybe about one win better).  The Cards would be mad to add Weaver to a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, and Sidney Ponson/Anthony Reyes.  The club is wavering on starting Reyes, and he’s already better than Weaver.  Weaver is barely an improvement over Marquis, so dealing him and signing Weaver would be a curious decision.  I suppose it could happen if the right outfield bat came along in return for Marquis though.       

Alfonso Soriano Trade Possibilities

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Ken Rosenthal’s latest article mentions that a trade of Alfonso Soriano could happen, but Nationals are more likely to offer Soriano a long-term deal to convince him to become an outfielder.  I don’t doubt Rosenthal, but let’s take a look at some possible suitors for the second baseman.  I’ll assume that a trade signifies no position change.

First off, let’s narrow the field by looking at which teams lack an established 2B.

Blue Jays – Looks like Aaron Hill is the man at second base for 2006, and he’s a fairly solid hitter already.  Plus, Soriano probably isn’t Ricciardi’s type of player.

Mariners – Jose Lopez will get the nod entering this season, and he slugged .505 during a couple of stints at Triple A.  Giving him a full-time shot makes way more sense than trading for Soriano.

Marlins – Obviously the Fish aren’t dealing for Sori.

Mets – The Mets have made all sorts of splashes this winter, and adding a 2B isn’t top priority.  They’d like to cut their losses with Matsui, but Jeff Keppinger and Anderson Hernandez are viable in-house candidates.

Cubs – The Cubs have a three-headed monster at second base, and Soriano probably doesn’t fit into the budget at $12MM+ over several years.  The Cubs have a tradition of free swinging, and I could see Hendry trying this for 2006 if A)The Nationals win their arbitration case and/or eat some salary and B)the price is low.

Cardinals – St. Louis seems content with a battle between Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles for the 2B job.  Plus, Soriano doesn’t seem like the typical St. Louis team player. 

Padres – They’re going to let Mark Bellhorn, Eric Young, and Josh Barfield have a crack at 2B.  Plus, I can’t see how Soriano would fit into the budget.

Of course, the Nationals already had an established 2B when they traded for Soriano, so maybe this isn’t the best guide.  Rosenthal’s suggestion that Soriano will stay put is entirely logical once you break down the potential trade partners.  If a deal was struck, it’d mostly be a salary dump and I think the only teams with mild interest would be the Cubs and Mets.  Just my opinion. 

Trade Candidates Part 1

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With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future.  Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.

Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him.  But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards.  Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.

We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt.  Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else.  On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.

One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux.  I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline.  I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left.  Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams.  If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.

Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings.  He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30.  I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.

Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons.  It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?

It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what.  Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.

I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal.  Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic.  Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.

Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt.  I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.

More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…

More Jeff Weaver

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I was wondering whether the Cardinals could fit Jeff Weaver into their payroll if they moved some parts around, and called upon Viva El Birdos to determine the answer.  Lboros thoroughly dissected the issue yesterday.  The verdict:

"So I guess my answer is: yes, there are knots the Cardinals could tie themselves into in order to fit Jeff Weaver into the payroll; but no, I don’t think they would be inclined to go that route."

Read the post and you’ll probably be inclined to agree. 

In addition, I spoke to my Mets source today.  He said the club is not interested in Weaver.  Commenters in my Weaver post from the other day pointed out that with Mike Pelfrey on the fast track, there’s really no place for Weaver on the Mets. 

Looks like the Orioles, Cubs, Astros, and Angels are the major players here.  However, the Phillies could be in the mix given that Ryan Madson is no lock for the rotation.  (This is why I love open comments – with enough smart people, all options get uncovered).   

Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing

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I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside).  After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time.  Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.

For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market.  He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29.  He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span. 

Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras.  We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now.  Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him.  It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.

Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians.  If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something.  However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180.  It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued.  Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.

Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles.  Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.

Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here.  And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies.  The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.

Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East.  His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.

Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back.  Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.

Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera.  This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason.  According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."

Mets – Sure, why not?  Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel.  You could do worse.

Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin.  I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.

Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas.  Ryan Drese is floating around as well.  I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.

Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility.  No Boras reservations.  Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams.  Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though.  Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter.  Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).

Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.

Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation.  If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix.  After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter.  Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.

Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.

I think that pretty much sums it up.  In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels.  Just my best guess.  I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.

Cards Make Offer to Felix Rodriguez

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A source close to the Cardinals’ organization is informing me that the club has an offer out to righthanded reliever Felix Rodriguez.  Details of the team’s proposal are not yet known.  Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch previously reported that the Cards were close to signing Rodriguez on December 21st.

The 33 year-old reliever has pitched 556 innings in his career, posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  Rodriguez’s prime came with the Giants.  In 2001, he won 9 games with a 1.68 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 80 innings for San Francisco.  Torn knee cartilage limited Rodriguez to 32 ineffective innings this year for the Yankees. 

  The Cards’ proposal is likely in the range of $2-3MM for one year.  The team has already added Braden Looper, Ricardo Rincon, and possibly Sidney Ponson for their 2006 bullpen. 

Buzz Around The Game

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Believe it or not, there’s a ton of stuff going on today that doesn’t involve the words "Prior" or "Tejada."

A tentative Troy Glaus trade has been reached.  The Diamondbacks dumped Glaus and his contract on the Blue Jays for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista.  Brandon Webb, far and away the most extreme groundball pitcher in baseball, benefits greatly from the addition of Hudson.  Another effect is the breakup of a highly rated defensive infield, at least in the eyes of Dayn Perry.  The Blue Jays now have a logjam of 1B/3B/DH guys, and Rosenthal speculates that Shea Hillenbrand is the most likely to go.  Should Shea stay true to his word, he’ll be a nice pickup.  It’s a homecoming for Miguel Batista; let’s hope the team correctly employs him as a starter.  Even with Glaus gone, the Diamondbacks still haven’t cleared up a corner outfield spot for #1 prospect Carlos Quentin.  The kid’s more than ready; let’s hope GM Josh Byrnes can unload Luis Gonzalez or Shawn Green as his next trick.   

Jason Johnson makes a sweet pickup for the Indians’ rotation.  Like Millwood last year, the Indians found a starting pitcher and only had to commit to one year.  In Paul Byrd, Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, and Johnson, the Tribe has built a deep rotation.  Combined, the five of them threw 1023 innings in 2005.  Seems Mark Shapiro has taken a page from Kenny Williams’s book, especially considering that he also has an excellent bullpen in place.

The Cards snagged Juan Encarnacion and Junior Spivey.  The reaction at Viva El Birdos to the revamped 2006 lineup:

"To be honest and blunt, i don’t see a single position where the Cardinals have meaningfully improved." 

That sentiment includes the bullpen and starting rotation as well.  Which reminds me – how can the Cardinals possibly justify blocking Anthony Reyes with Sidney Ponson?  The Ponson signing means one of three things:

1.  There are concerns about Reyes’s health that have not been revealed to the public.
2.  Jason Marquis will be traded this winter.
3.  Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan are so loathe put a rookie starter out there every fifth day that they’d prefer yet another fixer-upper.  Even if said fixer-upper had a 5.64 ERA over his last 346 innings.

Cardinals fans have got to be hoping for option #2.

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