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Cafardo’s Latest: Clippard, Thornton, Cobb, Lee, Free Agents

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It’s easy to buy into Spring Training hype, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe notes in his latest column as he looks at some of the major Red Sox storylines heading into camp.  While the Sox have drawn mostly approval for their offseason dealings, Cafardo warns that pundits were saying the same thing last year prior to Boston’s last place season.  Here’s some more from Cafardo’s piece…

  • The Astros have asked about Tyler Clippard.  Houston has already made a couple of big offseason moves to reinforce their bullpen in trading for Ken Giles and re-signing Tony Sipp, and adding Clippard would only further deepen a relief corps that also includes Luke Gregerson, Will Harris, Pat Neshek and Josh Fields.  Clippard’s market was fairly quiet for much of the winter, though as Cafardo notes, things have started to heat up for the veteran righty with at least six teams (including the Rays and Diamondbacks) showing interest.
  • Matt Thornton is drawing interest from around six teams, though the veteran lefty may have to settle for a minor league contract.  Thornton turned 39 in September and has a 1.98 ERA over 77 1/3 innings in 2014 and 2015, though with only a 5.9 K/9 in that stretch, ERA predictors such as xFIP (4.19) and SIERA (3.79) are less enthused with his performance over the last two years.  The Braves, Pirates and Twins were all rumored to have some interest in Thornton earlier this offseason.
  • The Rays are likely to keep their pitching, despite “quite a bit of interest” from other teams about Alex Cobb.
  • Teams have considered signing Cliff Lee, though they’re wary of giving him a contract in the range of $6MM-$8MM (plus incentives).
  • Dan Uggla’s agent says that teams have called about his client, though no side has made any commitments.  The veteran infielder is another player who is likely to only find a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite.
  • “It’s just so slow out there” for the large number of veteran players still on the market, one agent tells Cafardo.  This offseason has been the apex of a growing trend in recent years for teams to spend on a few high-salaried stars and then rely on young, cheap talent for the rest of the roster rather than spend more on established veterans.  This not only goes for the rank-and-file veterans looking for bench jobs but also for would-be starters like Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo, all of whom have had their markets slowed by the qualifying offer-attached draft compensation required to sign them.  “The [draft-pick] compensation issue is a factor, no question, and we have to do something about it with our collective bargaining talks because this is hurting good baseball players getting jobs,” the agent said.
  • An AL general manager, however, implies that some agents should perhaps be a bit more realistic about their demands.  “The agents are still asking for major league guarantees for players who should be grateful for major league invitations and minor league deals,” the GM said.  “I hear the agents blaming the teams, but I think a lot of teams are willing to add these players. But we’re in February, and quite frankly the signings need to be on our terms at this stage of the game. Eventually, these guys will break down and sign minor deals but we’re close to spring training and there hasn’t been a lot of bend.”

Quick Hits: Bell, Linares, Puig, Jackson, Rays

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The big ticket free agents aren’t always the most important offseason additions, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Using the Steamer projection system, Cassavell takes a look at the six players he thinks will most affect their respective divisions. Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman and Cubs center fielder Jason Heyward are obvious picks. Surprisingly, Cassavell finds Mike Napoli to be the big name in the AL Central while Wade Miley’s move to Seattle could be sneaky important.

Here are a few more notes from around the league:

  • Cuban veterans Alexei Bell and Yordanis Linares will hold workouts on February 15 and 16 in Baja California, tweets Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. Bell, 32, was reported to have left Cuba on January 13 and could fit as a right fielder. Linares’ defection was reported last summer. The 26-year-old doesn’t have enough professional experience in the Serie Nacional to avoid international spending restrictions. Bell, however, can be signed by any team.
  • The White Sox should target Yasiel Puig, opines Scott Merkin of MLB.com. Chicago has shown curiosity about the Dodgers outfield depth and could obviously stand to improve in the outfield. Rumors have tied them to veteran lefty Andre Ethier who could provide a useful platoon bat. However, Puig represents a more definitive upgrade with a star ceiling. Unfortunately, young talent comes with a price. Merkin lists pitchers Carson Fulmer, Spencer Adams, and shortstop Tim Anderson as possible targets for the Dodgers. Trading any of that trio would be a bitter pill to swallow.
  • The Indians could be a fit for free agent outfielder Austin Jackson, suggest Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Center field depth would be useful considering that Michael Brantley will start the season on the disabled list. Lonnie Chisenhall, Rajai Davis, and Abraham Almonte figure to form the Opening Day outfield, and it’s not hard to see a way to improve upon that trio. At the very least, additional depth in case of injury would be valuable.
  • The Rays should consider three more offseason moves, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The bullpen could use additional depth – perhaps Tyler Clippard or Tommy Hunter. Either Desmond Jennings or Brandon Guyer can be traded. The team is deepest with them on the roster, but they may be expendable. Jennings’ health may make a trade difficult. Lastly, Ian Desmond looks more and more attractive as a buy low option. The Rays have to be willing to discard their 13th overall selection in the draft if they’re to sign Desmond.

Rays Provide List Of Desired Stadium Specs

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The Rays have provided Hillsborough County officials with a list of specifications for their proposed new stadium, write Charlie Frago and Richard Danielson of the Tampa Bay Times (see also, Christopher O’Donnell of the Tampa Tribune). The Rays recently won a concession from the St. Petersburg government that will allow them to survey the area for a new site. A one page document details the team’s wishlist ranging from development options, site size, accessibility, and financial considerations.

The club’s lease agreement for their current home park, Tropicana Field, runs through 2027. The Rays have spent most of their tenure in St. Petersburg attempting to gain clearance for a new site in the St. Pete-Tampa Bay area. Their time at the Trop has not gone well. The Rays routinely “race” the Athletics for lowest attendance. Incidentally, the A’s are also locked in a battle to relocate.

The Rays’ one page spec sheet demanded a 20 acre site suitable for a baseball field. The surrounding area should contain development potential – either existing local businesses or the potential for new ones. The team has aspirations to create a new Camden Yards by building the first in the next generation of major league stadiums. They speak of creating a come-early and stay-late atmosphere with a next level fan experience. Their desire to integrate with external entertainment, retail, and food options dovetails with the latest trends in stadium building.

The document also refers to a need for a “public-private partnership.” That’s shorthand for tax payer money. Tax payer funding of stadiums is always a fascinating angle to evaluate. Economic analyses typically find that public funding of stadiums mostly profits club ownership at the expense of tax payers. Cities still agree to fund stadiums despite the evidence against them.

As for next steps, the Rays will begin to meet with interested parties. The city believes that the current Tropicana site and another called Toytown fit the team’s specifications. Presumably, the Rays will begin to hone in on more specific details from here.

AL Central Notes: White Sox, Uribe, Urshela, Freese, Rosario

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Here’s the latest from around the AL Central…

  • The White Sox and Cubs have both contacted the Rays about their pitching and outfield surplus, CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine reports.  The Cubs’ discussions with the Rays have been well-documented this winter, though the Sox are a new entry among the many teams to touch base with the Rays about their young arms; Levine notes that at least 11 teams have asked Tampa Bay about pitchers.  The White Sox have needs at both corner outfield positions and at the back end of their rotation.  The all-lefty trio of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon will headline the Pale Hose rotation, while John Danks, Jacob Turner and Erik Johnson are the current competitors for the fourth and fifth starters’ jobs.
  • The White Sox went on a seven-game winning streak from July 23 to July 29 last season, though this hot stretch right in the leadup to the trade deadline didn’t really change the team’s plans, GM Rick Hahn tells MLB.com’s Scott Merkin.  The decision to keep Jeff Samardzija at the deadline, for instance, wasn’t made because of the win streak; “nothing materialized and nothing was done in principal” in terms of a possible Samardzija trade, though the Sox were discussing him with teams.  “Those [talks] don’t necessarily happen July 27, 28, 29 and 30th. Those are going on for several weeks,” Hahn said.
  • The Indians have offered Juan Uribe around $3MM, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports as part of his latest subscription-only column.  Uribe has been linked to the Tribe and a few other teams, though salary will depend on whether or not Uribe is slated for a starting or backup role.  Cleveland seems likely to use Uribe and Giovanny Urshela in a time-share at third, so Uribe wouldn’t get the lion’s share of playing time.
  • Speaking of Urshela, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer looks at the Indians’ incumbent at the hot corner, noting that it’s too soon to write off the 24-year-old as an all-glove, no-bat player.  While Urshela’s minor league numbers aren’t impressive overall, he did post an .825 OPS over 528 PA at Double-A and Triple-A in 2014.  Pluto notes that Urshela battled injuries in 2015 and was probably promoted too quickly.  Urshela’s glove is so impressive that he can be a very useful everyday player if he hits even just a little, though Pluto notes that there are enough questions surrounding Urshela that the Tribe is justified in looking for an upgrade, especially in a season when team plans to contend.
  • The Indians are leaning more towards Uribe than David Freese to address their third base need, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes as part of a reader mailbag.  Freese entered the winter as the best of a fairly thin free agent third base market but there’s been very little news about him this winter, aside from some talks with the Angels before they acquired Yunel Escobar.
  • Randy Rosario was something of a surprising addition to the Twins’ 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft, but as Patrick Reusse of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes, the Twins are impressed by the young left-hander’s promise.  Rosario, 21, missed much of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery before returning to pitch 53 2/3 innings in A-ball last season.  The Dominican Republic product signed an $85K contract with the Twins in 2010.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/5/16

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Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • The Yankees added outfielder Jared Mitchell on a minor league pact, Matt Eddy of Baseball America tweets. Mitchell has been playing in the upper minors for quite some time after moving quickly upon being taken as the 23rd overall pick in the 2009 draft, but he’s yet to crack the majors. He spent most of last year with the Angels after breaking in with the White Sox, and owns a .213/.329/.338 batting line with 12 home runs and 10 stolen bases over 695 total plate appearances in parts of four seasons at Triple-A.
  • Meanwhile, the division-rival Rays are evidently working on a new pitching angle after adding converted catcher Jeff Howell on a minor league deal, as Matt Eddy of Baseball America tweets (with an assist from Mick Reinhard of PennLive, on Twitter). He joins fellow knuckleballer Eddie Gamboa in the Tampa Bay organization, which has also recently added former big league knuckler Charlie Haeger to its instructional staff. Needless to say, it’ll be interesting to see how this apparent experiment pans out.
  • The Rays also picked up righty Adam Reifer on a minors deal, per Eddy. The 29-year-old reliever owns a 4.35 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 over 176 total minor league frames.

Rays Interested In Tyler Clippard

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The Rays are among the teams considering a run at Tyler Clippard late in the offseason, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). As Topkin notes, Clippard was raised in Florida — he attended high school roughly 40 miles from Tropicana Field — and would also benefit from Florida’s lack of an income tax.

The lack of a market for Clippard has been surprising to many, although the right-hander certainly isn’t without red flags. His velocity has dropped each season since 2013, and he posted his lowest full-season strikeout rate in 2015 while also recording the third-worst full-season walk rate of his career. Clippard was also the game’s most extreme fly-ball pitcher last season; his 60.6 percent fly-ball rate was the highest among any pitcher that threw at least 20 innings, and it wasn’t particularly close. Teams may also be concerned about the huge workload on Clippard’s right arm; no reliever is within even 50 innings of the 464 1/3 innings that Clippard has tallied since the 2010 season.

Of course, that durability can also be perceived as a positive. Clippard has never been on the disabled list, and he’s made at least 72 appearances with at least 70 innings pitched in each of the past six seasons. Given the volatile nature of relief pitcher’s, Clippard’s consistent ability to take the mound — and pitch effectively, no less — is nothing short of remarkable. Dating back to that previously mentioned 2010 season, Clippard has a 2.67 ERA with 10.1 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9. He’s always been a fly-ball pitcher — though rarely to the extreme that he displayed in 2015 — but has managed to average less than a home run per nine innings (0.9 HR/9) in that stretch as well.

The question with which teams are faced, then, is whether or not the decline in Clippard’s K/BB numbers and velocity are due to that heavy workload or are elements of his game that can be corrected. Given the fact that he’s the last big-name relief arm left on the market, it would seem that there is indeed some level of trepidation surrounding him, but that could create the opportunity for a team to get something of a bargain rate on a player that has typically yielded high-quality results.

The Rays, in particular, could make sense as a landing spot for a reputable setup man, as the team has traded both Kevin Jepsen (to the Twins) and Jake McGee (to the Rockies) in the past six months or so, creating a potential late-inning opening. Clippard would theoretically join names like Danny Farquhar and Alex Colome as right-handed setup pieces serving as a bridge to closer Brad Boxberger.

Drew Smyly Wins Arbitration Hearing Over Rays

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Left-hander Drew Smyly and his agents at Frontline Athlete Management have won their arbitration hearing against the Rays, reports Jon Heyman (on Twitter). Because of the arbitration panel’s ruling, Smyly will earn $3.75MM in 2016 as opposed to the $3.2MM figure that had been submitted by the team.

This will be Smyly’s second trip through the arbitration process. As a Super Two player, he landed a $2.65MM salary last offseason and will be eligible for arbitration twice more before qualifying for free agency. Because his future salaries will be based off of his 2016 salary, that fact that he received the higher of the two possible sums in this hearing means that not only will he receive a greater salary in 2016, but his future salaries, too, will be based on a considerably more favorable launching point.

The sum in question at the hearing may seem relatively trivial to onlookers, although as several GMs and assistant GMs explained to MLBTR last year at this time, teams feel a responsibility to manage the arbitration market, as it is shared by all 30 clubs. Because all arbitration cases are built on recent historical comparables, the slight increases would eventually compound and become more significant were every team simply to give in to what appear, on the surface, to be relatively trivial amounts.

Rays, Drew Smyly Had Arbitration Hearing Today

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The Rays and left-hander Drew Smyly had an arbitration hearing today, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). A hearing is expected to come tomorrow, per Topkin, at which time an arbitration panel will award Smyly either a $3.75MM salary for the 2016 season (the figure he submitted) or a $3.2MM salary (the figure submitted by the Rays).

The 26-year-old Smyly came to the Rays by way of 2014’s three-team David Price blockbuster. Smyly had a dominant finish to that 2014 campaign following the trade — 1.70 ERA across seven starts — but lost a significant portion of his first full season with the Rays due to shoulder problems. After opening the year on the DL due to shoulder tendinitis, Smyly was activated in late April and made three starts before being diagnosed a partially torn labrum in his left shoulder. Smyly elected not to undergo surgery, which allowed him to pitch again i 2015 but also required a three-month stay on the disabled list. He returned in strong fashion, though, posting a 3.24 ERA with a 56-to-17 K/BB ratio in 50 innings across his final nine starts.

This will be Smyly’s second trip through the arbitration process. As a Super Two player, he landed a $2.65MM salary last offseason and will be eligible for arbitration twice more before qualifying for free agency. Because his future salaries will be based off of his 2016 salary, the outcome of the hearing carries much farther-reaching ramifications than the $550K that the two sides are presently debating.

The sum in question may seem trivial to some, although as several Major League executives explained to MLBTR last year at this time, teams feel a responsibility to manage a market that is shared by all 30 clubs. Because all arbitration cases are built on recent historical comparables, the slight increases would eventually compound and become more significant were every team simply to give in to what appear, on the surface, to be relatively trivial amounts.

Smyly is one of 16 arbitration cases around the league that remains unresolved, as MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows. While some of those will be resolved prior to a hearing, it does appear that there will be a handful of cases settled via hearing in 2016.

Quick Hits: Do-Over Deals, QO, Tanking, Platoons

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In honor of Groundhog Day, MLB.com has compiled some interesting tales of woe from top MLB executives. There’s a nice mix of mistakenly parting with prospects (Doug Melvin laments parting with Nelson Cruz when he didn’t need to); failing to pull the trigger for a key veteran (John Hart says he should have been willing to give Brian Giles to land Randy Johnson); failing to pick a side (Mark Shapiro and Chris Antonetti took a failed middle course in trading away Roberto Alomar); giving up on the wrong guy (Terry Ryan owns up to the decision to release David Ortiz); and reaching on a free agent (the Jeff Keppinger signing is a regret for Rick Hahn). It’s well worth a perusal of the bullets available at the link above, which has individual links to those and many more stories.

Here are a few more notes from around the game:

  • The qualifying offer seems increasingly likely to be a major point of discussion in the coming CBA talks, with Howie Kendrick’s surprisingly light free agent contract providing the latest cause for concern. In his interview with MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM yesterday (the second half of the chat at this audio link), agent Scott Boras provided an interesting case against the system. As he poses it, teams shouldn’t be forced to decide between improving at the major league level and taking opportunities for future improvement off of the table. And Jon Morosi of FOX Sports ticks through a few possible tweaks that might help balance the system out.
  • “Tanking” is another subject that’s been in the papers lately, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports that it was also a topic of discussion at the most recent owner’s meeting. There are tie-ins to the revenue sharing system, Olney suggests, with some contributing organizations feeling that recipient clubs should be required to utilize those funds in service of their major league roster.
  • Of course, small market clubs will always need to be more creative than their larger-budget brethren, and August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs explores one key method that most employ: taking advantage of platoons. Fagerstrom looks at projected platoons around the league to identify the combinations with the most promise. Three teams have reasonable expectations of 3+ WAR platoons, should they decide to use them: the Mets (Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores), Red Sox (Jackie Bradley Jr. and Chris Young), and Cardinals (Kolten Wong and Jedd Gyorko). Of course, none of those teams are light spenders, but there are numerous other examples throughout the post, including the possible combination that the Rays just set up with Corey Dickerson and Steve Pearce.

AL East Notes: Ramirez, Navarro, Rays, Cashman

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Ramon Ramirez, an infield prospect in the Orioles system, died in a motorcycle accident on Saturday in the Dominican Republic.  The 23-year-old Ramirez signed with the O’s in 2014 and played second, third and shortstop in 55 games at the Rookie League and low- and high-A ball levels over the last two seasons.  “Our entire organization is deeply saddened by the sudden and tragic death of Ramon Ramirez. As a member of the Orioles organization, Ramon worked tirelessly to make the most of his opportunity to play professional baseball. Our thoughts are with his family, friends, teammates, and coaches as we mourn this unimaginable loss,” Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette said in a statement today.  We at MLB Trade Rumors join the Orioles and the baseball world in expressing our condolences to Ramirez’s loved ones.

Some news from around the AL East…

  • The Orioles’ acquisition of first baseman/outfielder Efren Navarro adds some depth and gives Baltimore some roster flexibility, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  With Navarro now in the mix as a first base backup behind Chris Davis, the O’s could use young first basemen Christian Walker or Trey Mancini as trade chips.  Since Navarro is a well-regarded defender at first, Kubatko also wonders if Davis could see more time in the outfield.  Davis said he’s “always open to doing whatever it takes to win,” though noted that he’s much more comfortable in right field than left.
  • Now that the Rays have traded Jake McGee, their next move could be to acquire a replacement setup man, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes.  Alex Colome and Xavier Cedeno form a righty-lefty setup combo at the moment, though Topkin thinks the Rays could sign another veteran bullpen option (though not a big name like Tyler Clippard) or potentially trade for a reliever by dealing from their outfield surplus.  Brandon Guyer or Desmond Jennings could be trade chips in that scenario, Topkin opines, though interested teams may need to see that Jennings is healthy in Spring Training following his injury-plagued 2015 season.  The Rays still aren’t generating any trade buzz on James Loney, despite their willingness to cover part of his salary.
  • The only team yet to sign a Major League free agent this offseason has been, of all teams, the Yankees.  While GM Brian Cashman tells Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News that the club “explored all avenues” to upgrade the roster, the Bronx Bombers have been much more focused on trades rather than free agent signings over the last two offseasons.  This winter, such major names as Aroldis Chapman, Starlin Castro and Aaron Hicks joined the team.  “There’s a lot of different ways to climb the mountain. This winter took us to trades. We spent money, but it was acquiring contracts through trades. We’ve traded talent from our system to do that,” Cashman said.
  • There’s little question that Blue Jays fans want Jose Bautista to sign an extension, as evidenced by a very pro-Bautista response at a recent “Pitch Talks” speaker series event in Toronto.  FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, one of the speakers at the event, used the response to illustrate the sometimes stark difference in perspective between fans and front offices.  While there are solid baseball reasons to keep Bautista (as outlined by Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling at the event), general front office logic would dictate that extending a veteran slugger past his age-35 season isn’t necessarily a wise move.  While many fans understand this reasoning, that doesn’t stop the more general sentiment amongst the fanbase that the Jays should keep a player who has been such a huge star for the franchise.  I outlined the tricky situation the Jays face with Bautista in an Extension Candidate entry last November.
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