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Free Agent Stock Watch: Roberto Hernandez

By Tim Dierkes | May 9, 2013 at 11:13am CDT

Fausto Carmona was a revelation in 2007 with the Indians, his first season as a starter in the Majors.  He tied for tenth in the AL with 215 regular season innings, tacking on another 15 in the postseason.  He finished second in all of baseball with a 64.3% groundball rate, allowing only 16 home runs on the season en route to a 3.06 ERA.  The campaign earned Carmona a fourth-place Cy Young finish, and the Indians locked up the supposed 24-year-old to a four-year deal with three club options in April the following year.

USATSI_7224174

A hip strain cut Carmona's 2008 season short, and in June of the following year a 7.42 ERA across a dozen starts earned him a demotion to the rookie-level Arizona Summer League – a drastic move.  Carmona had replaced Cliff Lee to earn a rotation spot in '07, and when Lee was traded in July of '09, a spot opened for him again.  He was a little better to close out the year, and furthered his comeback in 2010 with 210 1/3 innings of 3.77 ball and his first All-Star nod.  Carmona even became the Indians' Opening Day starter in 2011.  His ERA was higher in '11, but Carmona was pretty much the same pitcher he had been in '10.  It was enough to get his $7MM club option picked up for 2012.

Then came surprising news in January 2012: Carmona's real name was Roberto Hernandez Heredia, and he was arrested in the Dominican Republic for using a false identity.  He was found to be three years older than originally believed.  Charges were dropped, and Hernandez's name, age, and contract were changed.  He rejoined the Indians to make three starts in August before an ankle sprain ended his season.  Though Hernandez's option price had been reduced from $9MM to $6MM, the Indians still chose to move on last October.

Enter the Rays, always open to a project, whether in terms of a performance issue, an off-the-field issue, or both.  They signed Hernandez to a one-year, $3.25MM deal with another $1.25MM in incentives.  The Rays were not able to obtain a club option, a wise choice by agent Charisse Espinosa-Dash of Draft Pix Sports.  As explained by Bradley Woodrum of FanGraphs, Hernandez has tweaked his repertoire with the Rays.  We're only six starts in, but Hernandez has whiffed more than a batter per inning, a rate to which he's never come close in the Majors.  He's still getting groundballs, too.  A 9.0 K/9 and 50% groundball rate is a rare combination, as a qualified starter hasn't managed the feat since Jon Lester and Francisco Liriano in 2010.  This year, Yu Darvish, A.J. Burnett, Jeff Samardzija, C.J. Wilson, Edwin Jackson, and Hernandez have done it in the early going.

Hernandez's ERA sits at an unimpressive 4.66, because 23.1% of his flyballs have left the yard – the worst rate in baseball.  That home run per flyball rate figures to come down significantly moving forward, and the ERA estimator SIERA suggests Hernandez should be well below 4.00 from here on out if he maintains his skills.  If Hernandez can post a sub-4.00 ERA and pitch close to 200 innings with 175 strikeouts or so, he should be quite popular in a free agent market light on above-average, healthy starting pitchers.  The false identity issue may suppress interest, as well as the question of whether Hernandez can maintain success away from the Rays (assuming he does pitch well for the remainder of the season).  A multiyear deal should still be in order, with two years and $16MM a possible floor.  We'll be following Hernandez closely to see if his volatile stock continues to rise.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Free Agent Stock Watch Tampa Bay Rays Roberto Hernandez

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Prospect Rumor Roundup: Odorizzi, Butler, Yelich

By Marc Hulet | May 9, 2013 at 7:42am CDT

You can't begin a month much better than Jake Odorizzi did during his start on May 5th against the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox. The young pitching prospect combined with three relievers to no-hit Boston's minor league affiliate. Odorizzi worked seven innings while walking four batters and striking out three. He was removed from the game early due to workload limitations. Relievers Frank De Los Santos, Kirby Yates and Jeff Beliveau preserved the no-no.

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times spoke with Odorizzi, who said he had all his weapons working during the game. "Everything was going my way. The defense was good behind me. It seemed everything was hit right at someone. Just kind of one of those days where everything goes your way." He has now held opponents scoreless in each of his last two starts (12 innings).

Although it's easy to get excited about Odorizzi's quick start to the season, the hype comes with caveats. The young hurler has always been an extreme flyball pitcher and his groundball rate is well below average on the year at slightly more than 22%. 

Odorizzi's pitching repertoire includes solid stuff but he lacks "plus stuff." He has average control and above-average command of his offerings: an 87-92 mph fastball, slider, curveball and change-up. In pre-season top prospects lists, Keith Law of ESPN (68th), Baseball America (92nd), and MLB.com (42nd) all ranked Odorizzi amongst the top 100 in the game. Baseball America's scouting report referred to the hurler's ceiling as that of a No. 3 or 4 starter.

Originally selected 32nd overall by the Milwaukee Brewers during that 2008 amateur draft, the Illinois native has been traded twice in his young career. He was sent to the Kansas City Royals in December 2010 during the Zack Greinke deal. Almost exactly two years later, Odorizzi was flipped to Tampa Bay in the James Shields/Wade Davis swap. If Tampa Bay — specifically its pitching staff with the fifth worst ERA in baseball — continues to struggle into the second half of 2013, the pitching prospect could become a big-league option later in the year.

Prospect Tidbits: Selected 46th overall in the 2012 amateur draft, Colorado Rockies pitching prospect Eddie Butler is off to a hot start to his career. Beginning the 2013 season in A ball, he's allowed just 18 hits in 41 innings of work. If the Radford University alum continues to pitch like this he could make quick work of the minor leagues…..The Miami Marlins brought in a lot of minor league talent during last November's shocking trade with the Toronto Blue Jays. Despite that, prospects originally drafted by the club continue to see their values soar. Outfielder Christian Yelich went 5-for-6 with two triples and a home run on May 8th. As MiLB.com's Ashley Marshall tells us, the performance also caught the attention of his manager. "It was one of the most impressive displays of a young hitter I have ever seen," Andy Barkett said. It raised Yelich's average to .343 on the year…..Baltimore's Dylan Bundy reached the big leagues in his first full pro season in 2012 but his development in '13 was halted by an injury. The bad news gives his Oklahoma high school opponent and friend Archie Bradley a chance to close the gap between the two a little bit. After five dominating starts in the potent California League (43 strikeouts, 1.26 ERA in 28 2/3 innings), the Arizona Diamondbacks promoted the pitching prospect to Double-A and he's struck out 11 batters with a 1.13 ERA in eight innings over two starts.

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Quick Hits: Mets, Brignac, Stewart, Marmol

By Jeff Todd | May 4, 2013 at 6:01pm CDT

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tells Andrew Kahn that his favorite scoop was his early reporting on the Angels' discussions with Albert Pujols. A tip of the cap to Metsblog for the link to the Rosenthal interview. Michael Baron discussed (and generally concurred with) Rosenthal's opinion that the Mets will not be contenders until at least 2015, in spite of the team's promising young arms. Here are a few more notes from around baseball:

  • Reid Brignac says he is grateful to the Rays organization for sending him to the Rockies before spring training, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The infielder says that he "could see the signs right in front of me" that he was a longshot to make the Tampa Bay roster. With a full spring to prove himself, Brignac managed to make an infield-heavy Rockies opening day roster. While Brignac has only seen 42 plate appearances, and has slugged just .324 in his limited opportunities, he has been able to get on base at a .325 clip.
  • Cubs third baseman Ian Stewart has been optioned to Triple-A, making his demotion official. Toni Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-TImes quotes Cubs manager Dale Sveum as saying that Stewart is in the minors "as a triple A player now," with Cody Ransom and Luis Valbuena being the Cubbies' third base options. Stewart struggled mightily at the top level of the minors while rehabilitating a strained quad. Still just 28, Stewart has failed to return to the level he reached during his promising 2009-10 seasons, when he showed 20-home run power at a young age. Meanwhile, the Cubs still have little to show for their investment in the former first-round pick, who barely cleared the Mendoza line last year. In addition to paying Stewart over $4MM over the last two seasons (after non-tendering but re-signing him this offseason), the Cubs gave the Rockies Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu to acquire him.
  • The notion that Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol can build up any trade value is preposterous, tweets David Kaplan of CSN Chicago. Marmol was yanked in the eighth inning today after allowing two walks and hitting a batter, which led to two runs to break open a tie ballgame. After today's implosion, Marmol has more walks than strikeouts after throwing 11 2/3 innings.
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Shelley Duncan Outrighted To Triple-A

By Zachary Links | May 3, 2013 at 8:37pm CDT

Tonight's outright assignments..

  • The Rays announced that Shelley Duncan has accepted an outright assignment Triple-A Durham.  Tampa Bay designated the DH/first baseman for assignment earlier this week to make room on the roster for Luke Scott.  The 33-year-old hit just .182/.297/.309 in 64 plate appearances this season.
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Stark On Wilson, Stanton, Price, Phillies, Utley, Norris

By Zachary Links | May 3, 2013 at 7:55pm CDT

In his latest edition of Rumblings & Grumblings, ESPN.com's Jayson Stark looks at what we've learned around the 30-game mark of the season.  The Red Sox have spent their money better than any team in baseball as Mike Napoli, Ryan Dempster, Koji Uehara, and Shane Victorino (before his back issues) have gotten off to excellent starts.  Meanwhile, it looks like the Braves have made the best trade of anyone so far as they landed Justin Upton and Chris Johnson for Martin Prado and four players that aren't currently in the majors.  Here's more from today's column..

  • Teams that have checked in on Brian Wilson have been told that his target date to throw for interested clubs should be around the All-Star break.  Wilson wants to ensure that he's fully recovered from Tommy John surgery before auditioning again.
  • Giancarlo Stanton's hamstring injury should probably put any talk of a July trade to rest.  "If they trade him in-season, they probably wouldn't get any major league talent," said one exec. "So given everything that's happened with their team and their attendance, are they really in a position to make a deal for him where they just get back prospects?  Probably not."  The exec concluded that the Marlins are better off waiting until the offseason and getting big league ready talent back for their star.
  • The Rays may be the most closely-watched team in the league by contenders over the next few months.  Teams know the Rays will keep David Price in July if they're alive in the AL East, and will listen hard if they're out of contention. If they're caught in between, one exec believes that the Rays still might move him if they feel like they're not good enough to win it all.  The hurler's price tag is expected to by skyhigh if he hits the open market after the 2015 season.
  • The buzzards are already starting to circle over the Phillies, Stark writes, but club officials have told teams that have checked in that they still expect their club to contend and won't even think about selling for another two months.  
  • If a Phillies sell-off happens, the biggest buzz would include impending free agent Chase Utley.  One exec who has checked into things says his impression is that the Phillies would approach Utley first and get a feel for whether he wants to go elsewhere.  Utley, who will be just short of 10-and-5 rights at the deadline – can block trades to 21 teams. 
  • Execs say they'd rather trade for Lucas Harrell than Bud Norris if they had a choice between the Astros pitchers.  Harrell has two more years of control and one scout says that the big knock on Norris is that he's still basically a "two-pitch guy".  Quite a few teams also think he profiles more as a bullpen weapon on a contender even though he's the Astros' ace.
  • The Yankees want a right-handed bat, but one scout feels that they don't have enough pieces to land an impact deal.  The Bombers added one right-handed hitter when they traded for Chris Nelson earlier this week.  
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Houston Astros Miami Marlins New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies Tampa Bay Rays Brian Wilson Bud Norris Chase Utley David Price Giancarlo Stanton Lucas Harrell

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Rays Designate Shelley Duncan For Assignment

By Zachary Links | April 30, 2013 at 3:02pm CDT

The Rays designated DH/first baseman Shelley Duncan for assignment, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter).  The move was made in order to create roster space for Luke Scott.

Duncan, 33, struggled in 64 plate appearances for the Rays after signing a minor league deal in January and making the team out of Spring Training given Scott's injury.  He's shown pop at times in the Majors, slugging .430 with 33 home runs in 770 plate appearances over 2010-12.  A right-handed hitter, Duncan hasn't shown a significant platoon split in his career with the Yankees, Indians, and Rays.

Shelley is the brother of former Cardinals outfielder Chris Duncan, and the son of legendary Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan.  Shelley's 43 career home runs rank 14th among those born in Arizona; he's a dozen behind his brother but 105 behind all-time leader Ian Kinsler.

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Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Shelley Duncan

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AL Notes: Twins, Gibbons, Reyes, Price, Jackie Bradley

By edcreech | April 28, 2013 at 4:00pm CDT

The Twins have devoted only 22.5% of their 2013 payroll to pitching (MLB average is 49.8%) and haven't exceeded the league average since 2005. Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes perhaps no statistic better illustrates the Twins' dry spell in developing pitching prospects. "It’s not by design. It’s not like we said, 'Let’s spend less on pitching and go another way,'" said Twins assistant GM Rob Antony. "When we’ve spent a lot on a contract, more often than not, it’s on players we already have, that we know. We know how they fit in the clubhouse, and we know their health situation. It makes you a little more comfortable with the investment." Miller notes several pitching investments have been wasted because of injuries including this year's highest-paid pitcher Nick Blackburn ($5.5MM), who was removed from the 40-man roster as he recovers from wrist surgery. One investment that does seem to be paying dividends is Kevin Correia, who signed a two-year, $10MM free agent contract last December. The right-hander tossed eight shutout innings and lowered his ERA to 2.31 in the Twins' 5-0 win over the Rangers. In other news and notes from the American League:

  • After a four-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees, the seat is becoming hotter for Blue Jays manager John Gibbons. CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman calls this a big test for Gibbons while Keith Law of ESPN.com says it's too early to think about firing the skipper (Twitter links).
  • Before the game, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos met with the media, including Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca, and said he doesn't expect Jose Reyes back until the beginning of July "just to make sure that we do this correctly and we don’t have any setbacks." In the meantime, the plan is use Munenori Kawasaki and Maicer Izturis because Anthopoulos said the costs of going outside the organization for a Reyes replacement "don’t line up for us with what our alternatives are."
  • Rays principal owner Stuart Sternberg reiterated his team's ability to afford David Price in an interview with WFAN (partial transcript provided by the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin). "We can; I don't know if we'll have any team around him other than him and (Evan) Longoria."
  • In the same interview, Sternberg said he expects the Rays' next TV contract to be "big relative to the size of our attendance" but "mid-sized market" compared to other teams.  
  • The Red Sox prefer to give Shane Victorino some time to work out his back issues rather than trying to bring Jackie Bradley back too soon, tweets the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo. Victorino underwent an MRI yesterday, which revealed inflammation in his lower back. Bradley, meanwhile, is 7-for-31 with 10 strikeouts and five walks since being optioned to Triple-A.
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Boston Red Sox Minnesota Twins Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Alex Anthopoulos David Price Jackie Bradley Jr. Jose Reyes Maicer Izturis Munenori Kawasaki Shane Victorino

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Rosenthal On White Sox, Stanton, Price, Collins

By Zachary Links | April 27, 2013 at 1:36pm CDT

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has posted his latest edition of Full Count (video link) and we've got the highlights..

  • If the White Sox fall out of contention, they could be an interesting seller at the deadline.  Paul Konerko, Gavin Floyd, Matt Thornton, and Jesse Crain are among their attractive potential free agents.  Meanwhile, Alex Rios and Jake Peavy are signed only through next season.  However, their pitching means that they should be in the mix for at least the second wild card spot.  According to one team's internal calculations, their staff is currently the most productive in baseball.
  • The Rangers could face a problem if they try to put a deal together for Giancarlo Stanton or David Price.  Texas is thin on high-end pitching in the upper levels farm system, which will hurt them, particularly if they go after Price. 
  • Mets skipper Terry Collins is in the final year of his deal and one team official says he'll likely be judged on how much the team's young talent improves.  So far, so good as Daniel Murphy, Jordany Valdespin, Lucas Duda, and of course Matt Harvey are among the homegrown Mets off to decent starts.  Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis, on the other hand, appear to be question marks.  In any case, Collins' status likely won't be decided until the end of the season.
  • There was a lot of talk about Dan Haren's hip after the Cubs backed out of trading for him last November, but the pitcher has heard the talk and thinks its overblown.  He says that his hip is the same as it was when he was in Oakland and says that it hasn't gotten any better or worse since then.  He also noted that he has missed only three starts in ten seasons and doesn't plan to miss any in 2013.
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Quick Hits: Harper, Trout, Loria, Rays, Pirates

By Steve Adams | April 26, 2013 at 4:23pm CDT

One year ago Sunday, Mike Trout made his 2012 debut on the same day that Bryce Harper made his Major League debut. Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports polled executives around the game and asked which player each executive would prefer to build a franchise around, if they had to choose one. While the consensus was that there was no wrong answer — one scout told Morosi, "That's like choosing between two $1 million bills" — 36 of the 48 participants chose Trout. Morosi goes against the majority, agreeing with one scout who notes that you can't teach Harper's intensity, historic leverage and bat speed, among other factors. Morosi also adds that Harper is more conditioned to handle pressure, having been in the national spotlight since age 16.

Regardless of your preference, Harper and Trout have given fans a lifetime's worth of debates over the past year. Here's more from around the league for your Friday reading pleasure…

  • Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports that the last-minute Marlins pitching change in Tuesday's double-header this week came directly from owner Jeffrey Loria. The owner insisted that Jose Fernandez start the day game while Ricky Nolasco start the night game, despite the fact that the opposite was supposed to happen. The move went over poorly with both pitchers and infuriated the Marlins' players. Loria overstepped his boundaries as "no other owner in baseball would dare," Passan writes, and in doing so embarrassed and undermined rookie manager Mike Redmond.
  • Loria spoke to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports and flatly denied the report, stating that he was engaged in discussions regarding his business as an art dealer at the time.
  • Rays minor leaguer Jose Disla was suspended 50 games for violating MLB's drug policy, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The 17-year-old was signed in March and has yet to play a pro game (Twitter links).
  • A rival GM told Rosenthal that the 2013 version of the Pirates are the best Pirates team he's seen in 20 years (Twitter link).
  • The Mariners can't panic yet and replace half their roster with prospects from Triple-A, writes Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. The Mariners' front office spent an entire winter devising a plan for the season, and pulling the plug in April would be akin to surrendering. The team hasn't played close to its potential, he writes, but there is time to turn the season around yet.
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Rays Players Don’t Fret Over Where Team Will Play

By Chuck Myron 2 | April 23, 2013 at 7:53am CDT

On paper, the Rays are tied to a lease at Tropicana Field until 2027. In reality, there’s much more uncertainty involving the location of a franchise that had the lowest per-game attendance in the majors last year.

St. Petersburg mayor Bill Foster has been adamant about not allowing the team to negotiate possible stadium sites outside the city, most notably in neighboring Tampa and Hillsborough County. Yet principal owner Stuart Sternberg told reporters during in spring training that he’s optimistic that progress can be made on the issue. The mayor said on Opening Day that since meeting with Sternberg in February, their respective staffs have been working together on the matter, as Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times notes. Whether that means the Rays could soon be looking at sites in St. Pete, Tampa or elsewhere is unclear. What is clear is that the question of where the Rays will play in the coming years continues to hang over the team like the pesky catwalks on the ceiling of the Trop.

Of course, as with any front office issue, that doesn’t mean anyone in the clubhouse is paying much attention to it.

“I honestly believe we’re beyond that being a distraction for us,” manager Joe Maddon told reporters in spring training when MLBTR asked about the ongoing stadium issue. “I mean, it’s been going on for a while now. We’ve been ridiculed nationally. We’ve been ridiculed locally. We’ve had conversations about it.”

Third baseman Evan Longoria certainly doesn’t seem worried about the team's future in Tampa Bay, if his decision last winter to sign a contract extension through 2023 is any indication. Utility man Sean Rodriguez, one of six players to speak to MLBTR about the stadium issue, believes it's possible teammates or potential free agents may take Longoria's extension as a sign that there's no cause for concern.

“You could definitely think that,” Rodriguez said. “If he’s willing to stay here, it’s obviously because he believes in what’s going on.”

Sternberg said on Opening Day that even if the team started working toward a new stadium immediately, the earliest the club could move in would be five or six years from now. If Longoria’s deal stands to ease the mind of any player considering a long-term deal with the club, the lack of immediacy makes it a non-issue for players operating on shorter timeframes.

“We know we’re going to be playing in Tropicana Field in 2013, and that’s kind of all we’re worried about,” outfielder Sam Fuld said. “Other than a select few, we’ve all bounced around enough to know not to look past the next month, let alone the next year.”

Fuld, like all but five of his teammates, is on a deal that expires at the end of the season. Ben Zobrist is one of the five who figures to be with the Rays at least a little while longer, as his contract includes team options in 2014 and 2015. Zobrist said he’s on board with whatever the organization decides to do about a place to play.

“I’m not worried about that,” he said. “They (Rays officials) make that decision. As players, especially around here, you have to be flexible. If you’re not flexible, then you’re not going to last very long in baseball, because you have to be, to be able to be successful in this profession. Things are changing all the time, and you’re always traveling, and there’s always a new situation. So it’s certainly something that you have to have some thick skin (about), and just learn to enjoy it all.”

Starting pitcher Alex Cobb said he takes a neutral stance about the stadium talks, but concedes that there are ties that would make staying at the Trop appealing to him.

“Obviously, it would be nice to have sold-out crowd every night, which is asking a lot, but I grew up coming to this stadium,” he said. “Living in Vero Beach, I drove over all the time, came to games, and chased autographs around the stadium, so there’s a big nostalgic feeling about this stadium. I live close-by to the stadium now, so it’s a nice, easy drive.”  

The same roof under which Cobb watched his baseball heroes now makes his professional life a little easier.

“I love the stadium,” he said. “I know every time I’m getting the ball that it’s going be 72 (degrees) and no wind. I know the conditions I’m going to get.”

Rays fans might not show up in droves at the ballpark, but many of them show their support in other ways, as Maddon observes amid the specter of a stadium issue that feeds the perception of the team’s lack of appeal.  

“While that’s all going on, the thing that I think gets overlooked, from our perspective, is how much we respect our fans,” Maddon said. “Our fans have been great to us. You walk up and down in the Tampa Bay area, you’re going to see a lot of Rays gear. I live up in Tampa. I see it all over the place, right on Bayshore (Boulevard). People are talking about us. We’re well-watched on television. We’re well-listened-to on radio. So, the thing about the ballpark — of course we want a better ballpark. Of course we do. In the right spot. But it’s not a distraction.”

Rays local television broadcasts drew a 4.89 rating in 2012, up about 28% over 2011 and almost squarely in the middle of local ratings that ranged from a high of 9.13 for the Tigers to a low of 1.02 for the Astros last season. The Rays cite data from the Scarborough Research firm that showed the number of fans who attended one of their games, watched one on TV, or listened on radio was greater than any other team in the Tampa Bay area in 2011, including the NFL’s Buccaneers.

The numbers suggest that the local market isn’t the problem, and that the team’s attendance woes could be solved with a stadium in a better location within the area. Such a move might make Cobb’s commute a little longer, but it would mean less upheaval than if the Rays left Tampa Bay entirely, and perhaps a more certain future for a club looking to build on the success of the past five years.

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