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AL West Notes: Crisp, Martin, Kuo, Luetge

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Mike Napoli could bring a bit of added intensity to the plate when he faces C.J. Wilson this season.  Wilson recently posted Napoli's phone number on Twitter, a response to an alleged comment made by Napoli about how he was looking forward to homering off of Wilson this season.  Napoli was not amused by the joke and, though he didn't recall making the initial statement, vowed to indeed try and take Wilson yard.  Eighty years after Babe Ruth hit his famous "called shot" in the World Series, if Napoli does indeed homer off of Wilson this season, can we call it the Prank Called Shot?

Some (more serious) news from around the AL West…

  • Coco Crisp said he wouldn't have re-signed with the Athletics had he known he was going to be moved to left field, reports USA Today's Bob Nightengale.  Yoenis Cespedes will start the year as Oakland's center fielder, and Crisp said the promise of the center field job was one of the reasons he signed with the A's over the Rays, who couldn't promise Crisp regular time in center due to B.J. Upton's presence.  Crisp did say that he was glad to be back with the A's and, in regards to the position switch, says he has to "go out here and just accept it."
  • The Rangers feel Leonys Martin needs more development and are "concerned about [his] lack of instincts," tweets Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, though the club still recognizes his talent.  The Cuban outfielder signed a five-year, $15.5MM deal with Texas last May and hit .295/.362/.421 in 343 minor league PAs, going all the way from rookie ball to an eight-plate appearance cup of coffee with the Rangers in September.
  • Hong-Chih Kuo was released earlier today by the Mariners, though if the southpaw clears waivers, Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times believes the M's could re-sign Kuo to a minor league contract.
  • Also from Condotta, the Mariners are still figuring out what to do with Lucas Luetge, a left-handed reliever taken from the Brewers in last winter's Rule 5 draft.  Kuo's release could help Luetge find a spot in the Mariners' bullpen, though the M's also have Charlie Furbush, Cesar Jimenez and George Sherrill competing for roles as left-handed relief options.
  • For some news about the Angels, check this compilation of Los Angeles Notes from earlier tonight on MLBTR.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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Surprisingly, the Rays augmented their offense through free agency.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

For some MLB teams, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, Alex Torres, and Alex Cobb would all have rotation spots.  For the Rays, they rank #5-8 on the depth chart.  After fielding offers for various starting pitchers for the offseason's first few months, the Rays chose to maintain their rotation depth and simply sign a pair of free agents to bolster the offense.

Icon_9954168The Rays inked Pena and Scott for a total of $13.25MM in January to replace first baseman Kotchman and designated hitter Damon.  Damon didn't understand why the two positions were considered means to upgrade the offense, but the increased power potential from Pena and Scott is obvious.  The Rays can't afford to pay full sticker price for free agent power.  Pena was available on a one-year deal because he's batted .216 over the past three seasons and slugged .402 when he was last in the American League in his previous Rays stint.  Scott had been non-tendered by the Orioles after an ugly 2011 season was cut short by July shoulder surgery, and he's limited defensively.  Damon and Kotchman were far from sure things themselves, but Pena and Scott have higher offensive ceilings.

The team's unheard-of rotation depth is likely to be fully utilized in the course of the season, as most teams need seven starters in a good year.  Almost all pitchers want to remain starters as long as possible, and whether Davis or Niemann goes to the bullpen to start the season, the move will be temporary.

The Rays' bullpen needed some tinkering, and executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman made some unpredictable acquisitions in Rodney, Badenhop, and Lueke.  In the Rodney signing press release, Friedman provided a euphemism for Rodney's control issues, saying, "Fernando's pure stuff is top-notch and can beat hitters both in and out of the strike zone."  Having walked almost eight batters per nine innings in a 2011 season shortened by a back injury, I thought Rodney was in line for a minor league deal.  He still throws over 95 and gets tons of groundballs, and it's likely the Rays feel pitching coach Jim Hickey can get Rodney's walk rate down to a tolerable level.  Badenhop is an extreme groundballer as well, a nice fit for the best defensive team in baseball.  The 29-year-old allowed just one home run in 63 2/3 innings last year for the Marlins.  

Though light on experienced big league catching, the Rays also traded Jaso to the Mariners for Lueke.  The Rays are no strangers to controversial players, and Lueke comes with the baggage of the 2008 rape charge for which he later pled no contest for false imprisonment with violence.  Friedman said upon the trade, "We researched the 2009 incident that Josh was involved in thoroughly and in great detail.  We’re satisfied that he is going to be the kind of person and teammate that we look for and we expect him to contribute positively to our group."  The Rays may have lowered the bar in their search for undervalued players, suggested John Romano of the St. Petersburg Times in November.

The Rays appear to be aiming for improved defense behind the plate, having traded Jaso and declined Shoppach's option.  Since they didn't receive offense from the position anyway in 2011, it made sense to double-down on defense.  Using the 36-year-old Molina as more than a backup is an interesting experiment given his strong defensive skills, but if he breaks down, inexperienced catchers Jose Lobaton, Robinson Chirinos, and Chris Gimenez could be handling the American League's best rotation with regularity.  Expect the Rays to keep a close eye on the catching market this summer.  There's also uncertainty at the shortstop position currently, but Hak-Ju Lee may be ready as early as next season.

The Rays kept the well-regarded Friedman-Maddon duo in place, as Friedman declined to interview for the Astros GM job and Maddon signed a three-year extension.  Friedman authored yet another precedent-setting contract for pitching phenom Matt Moore, signing him to a five-year deal despite just 17 days of Major League service.  There's risk in guaranteeing $14MM to a pitcher so green, but barring injury the Rays probably saved tens of millions of dollars and snagged a pair of free agent years, at their option.  Some young players are less receptive to this type of contract, perhaps including young Rays Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, who are represented by the Boras Corporation.

The Rays hope they've found a way to improve their offense without affecting their rotation depth.  If the offense sputters, Friedman will still be in a strong position this summer, as few clubs can part with quality starting pitching without missing a beat.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Rays Appear To Be Seeking Catcher

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The Rays currently have four catchers on their 40-man roster, but apparently they're seeking even more depth. Jon Heyman and Scott Miller of CBSSports.com hear from those within the industry that Tampa is believed to be seeking an extra catcher (Twitter links). One executive predicted that Jose Molina won't catch more than 80 games.

Molina, 36, was brought in on a one-year, $1.8MM deal this offseason because of his stellar defense and not his .263/.323/.396 batting line with the Blue Jays over the last two years. The veteran backstop has started 81 games behind the plate just once in his 12-year career (2008), and only twice has he started more than 60 games at catcher. The other 40-man roster catchers – Robinson Chirinos, Jose Lobaton, and Stephen Vogt – have 116 plate appearances at the MLB level combined.

As our Free Agent Tracker shows, there isn't much out there in terms of catching help. It's basically Ivan Rodriguez and Ramon Castro. The Rays have pitching to spare if they want to seek another backstop via trade.

Rays Not Considering Ivan Rodriguez

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The Rays are not considering free agent Ivan Rodriguez as an option at catcher, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com.  Tampa Bay is in need of a backup to Jose Molina but it doesn’t appear that the Scott Boras client will be the answer.

The Mets were once linked to the 40-year-old but two team sources shut the door on that possibility late last month.  Pudge has reportedly fielded a few inquiries, including one from the Diamondbacks, but is in search of a job that will give him a decent amount of playing time.

Cafardo On Phillies, Blanton, Lannan, Ramirez

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In this morning's column, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe takes a look at some of the emerging storylines in the American League East.  In New York, Francisco Cervelli is set to be the backup catcher, but could become trade bait for the Yankees with Austin Romine knocking on the door.  The catching situation with Tampa Bay is also worth keeping an eye on as Jose Molina needs a backup.  The Rays could pick up Ivan Rodriguez or deal from their pitching surplus to fill the vacancy.  If they trade Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis, Cafardo writes that it would be for a catcher.  Here's more from Cafardo..

  • The Phillies are making it clear to teams that they would eat as much as $2MM of Joe Blanton’s $8MM deal in a trade.  Moving Blanton would allow the Phillies to have payroll flexibility and bump Kyle Kendrick into the No. 5 spot in the rotation.  Yesterday, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos scouted the Phillies game and left after Blanton's exit.
  • Meanwhile, the Nationals continue to dangle left-hander John Lannan.  The club is spreading word that the 27-year-old is available in a deal, particularly one for a center fielder.
  • The Braves are in need of a left field power bat and right-hander Jair Jurrjens could be the trade bait for one.
  • At some point, Blue Jays shortstop Yunel Escobar will have to move to second base to make room for Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria.  Escobar loves being a shortstop, so there is a bit of trepidation among some in the organization as to how he will accept this.
  • Meanwhile, many feel that the Marlins' Hanley Ramirez won't stay happy for long at third base and eventually will demand a trade.
  • With several teams in the market for a center fielder, Cafardo asked a National League scout if the Yankees would entertain a deal for Brett Gardner.  Gardner is currently slated to start in left field for the Yanks but a National League scout said that at some point the club might seek out a more traditional left field option.
  • The Red Sox are impressed with Chris Carpenter's live fastball but privately they are not happy with what they wound up getting in exchange for Theo Epstein.

AL East Notes: Rivera, Roberts, Moore, Cherington

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It was on this day in 1985 that the Blue Jays and Dave Stieb finalized one of the more unique contracts in baseball history — an 11-year deal worth a guaranteed $16.6MM and (with incentives) possibly worth as much as $25MM.  Larry Stone of the Seattle Times looked back at the contract in 2010, noting that while the Jays absorbed some criticism for the deal at the time, they got a bargain in the long run when Stieb developed into one of the best pitchers of his era.  In 1991, the Jays reworked three years of the contract to pay Stieb an extra $4.35MM as a gesture of gratitude for his performance.

Here's some news from all around the AL East…

  • Yankees closer Mariano Rivera denied a New York Post report from yesterday that claimed he would announce his possible retirement plans before the All-Star Break.  Rivera told Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York that "nothing's changed" about his future plans and that he will "tell everybody what my plans are at the same time after the season."
  • Brian Roberts isn't sure when, or even if, he'll be able to return to the Orioles following a series of concussions, he tells Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.  Roberts says he has stopped trying to guess when he may be able to resume his career, though he notes that his recovery is "progressing" and he "has more good days than bad days."
  • Rays southpaw Matt Moore tops Baseball America's preseason list of the top 20 rookies in the game.  Moore is the only AL East representative on the list, though former Yankee prospect Jesus Montero (now with the Mariners) clocks in at the #3 position.
  • "We need some guys to step up on our pitching staff," Red Sox GM Ben Cherington tells MLB.com's Ian Browne.  The Sox will be looking at pitching or outfield depth as they conduct their usual scouting of other teams' Spring Training camps.  Also in this in-depth interview, Cherington discusses his first winter as a general manager, the difficulty in parting with long-time Red Sox stars Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield, and what he learned from Theo Epstein.
  • The Blue Jays may be the only team that could be a fit for Derrek Lee, writes Fangraphs' Chris Cwik.  Lee could be an alternative to Adam Lind at first if Lind struggles, or Lee could at least platoon if Lind again struggles to hit left-handed pitching.  Though Cwik was pretty hesitant about Lee's chances of playing anywhere in the Majors in 2012, I'm not sure Toronto works as a landing spot either; the Jays have Edwin Encarnacion backing up at first, Travis Snider or Eric Thames as DH candidates, plus Ben Francisco and Rajai Davis as right-handed bench bats.   

The Next Frontier Of Baseball Analysis

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The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference assembled an excellent baseball panel this year in Boston.  Host Rob Neyer asked participants their thoughts on the next frontier in baseball analysis, and a few highlights follow.

Red Sox senior advisor of baseball operations Bill James gave a two-part answer.  First, James feels "one of the things we most need to understand better is how levels of competition fit together so that the information we get from one level can be interpreted at another level in a way that is more helpful."  James says "we really don't have a clue" how levels such as college, Double-A, and Japan fit together.  Second, James believes that teams and players act in their best interest, even if it's not beneficial for the game as a whole.  He gave an example of a player stepping out of the box to regain his focus.  That 30 second break helps the player perform his best, but delays of this nature are bad for baseball in general, because they cause many to consider the game boring to watch.

Astros GM Jeff Luhnow wasn't actually answering Neyer's question at the time, but he volunteered his thoughts, saying, "The frontier from my perspective is really turning that player evaluation into player valuation.  When Scott [Boras] and I have a conversation about a player, this player may be 12 runs above average and another player might be 10 runs above average, but there's so many other factors that go into whether I'm going to be willing to pay more or less for that player.  For example, we always talk about the most likely outcome for this player, but what's the distribution look like?  Is there a 10% chance that he's below replacement level, is there a 10% chance that he's above superstar level?"

Indians president Mark Shapiro spoke of an "infinite number of things that I don't know," but mentioned during the conference that "medical is an absolute separator."  Agent Scott Boras focused on psychology, as a means to increasing the chances of players reaching their potential.  Rays baseball operations special assistant Rocco Baldelli wonders why some players develop the ability to hit, and some do not.

The panel provided a wide array of answers, but Luhnow's resonated most with me.  We often apply straightforward methods to determine what constitutes a good free agent signing, but projecting a player's WAR and multiplying by the price of a win is just a starting point.  Both Luhnow and Shapiro lamented the inability to tell fans all the factors that went into a decision, so unfortunately there will always be missing information for those outside the front office. 

AL East Notes: Rays, Howell, Yankees, Hendry

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Here's a look at some items out of the AL East..

  • The Rays believe that J.P. Howell is worth their investment after an up-and-down 2011 campaign, writes Roger Mooney of The Tampa Tribune.  The Rays avoided arbitration with Howell this winter, agreeing to a $1.35MM deal for 2012.
  • Looking back on it, Rays pitcher Joel Peralta has no regrets about lying about his age to land a contract from a major league team, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  In 1996, the Dominican pitcher told scouts that he was 16-years-old rather than 20.
  • Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger spoke with Jim Hendry who is now with the Yankees as a special assignment scout.  The former Cubs General Manager says that he hasn't put much thought into whether he'd want to serve as a GM again and doesn't plan to leave the Yanks job after one year.
  • Hiroki Kuroda will have to make adjustments with the Yankees but the pitcher already showed an ability to adapt by finding success in MLB, Carig writes.
  • Orioles manager Buck Showalter said this week that he’s used the Rays recent success as proof that Baltimore can compete in the AL East with a limited payroll, writes Eduardo A. Encina of The Baltimore Sun.

Cafardo On Jones, Nationals, Floyd, Indians, Red Sox

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Agent Scott Boras told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he expects trade deadline activity to decrease because the superpowers in baseball are going to save money on the luxury tax and can’t spend it in the draft.  Boras was in attendance for the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston and our own Tim Dierkes sat down for an interview with the super agent.  Here's more from Cafardo's Sunday column..

  • The Orioles' Adam Jones keeps popping up in trade discussions with the Nationals, but O's sources indicate that there’s very little chance he'll be dealt.  The Nats are trying to figure out center field, and for the moment they’re content with using Jayson Werth, Roger Bernadina, and Rick Ankiel.  However, they will be scouting Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, Gerardo Parra, and Peter Bourjos in spring training.
  • White Sox right-hander Gavin Floyd could be in play for the Blue Jays or Red Sox.  The White Sox don’t appear eager to move Floyd, but GM Kenny Williams wouldn’t be shy if it brought him a decent bounty in return.
  • The Indians will try to fill in for Grady Sizemore with Michael Brantley, but their scouts are looking for a center field option in the trade market.
  • Free agent Adonis Garcia is drawing interest from several teams, but the Red Sox aren’t overly enamored, according to a team source.
  • Roy Oswalt is still in play and later in camp the Red Sox could put on a full-court press for him.
  • The Rays are looking for a catcher to back up Jose Molina and Boras may look to put Ivan Rodriguez in that spot.
  • There seems to be concern that the Astros are shooting themselves in the foot by moving starter Brett Myers into the closer role as he is one of the veterans they have been trying to deal.  Teams typically need innings-eaters over late-inning relievers.
  • Cafardo wonders aloud if Terry Francona will land with the Mets when he resumes his managerial career.

East Notes: Davis, Gregg, Hellickson, McCann

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Mets first baseman Ike Davis is being treated for a form of Valley Fever, though the team says Davis' infection is non-contagious and not very serious (via Mike Puma of the New York Post on Twitter).  Davis says he has yet to receive an official diagnosis and hasn't experienced any symptoms.  In recent years, Conor Jackson has also dealt with Valley Fever, missing most of the 2009 season with a more severe case of the infection.

Here are some (non-medical) news items from around both East divisions….

  • Jim Johnson seems to have enough of a lead over Kevin Gregg for the Orioles' closer job that Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun reports that Gregg could be traded if Johnson's back is healthy.  Gregg struggled in his first season in Baltimore and to move him, the O's would have to eat a big portion of Gregg's $5.8MM salary for 2012.
  • The Rays have renewed Jeremy Hellickson's contract for 2012, the team announced today.  Hellickson isn't eligible for arbitration until after the 2013 season and is under team control through 2016.  The Rays also announced they had come to terms with 22 other players with less than three years of Major League experience, including such notable names as Desmond Jennings, Alex Cobb and Matt Joyce.  Tampa Bay's entire 40-man roster is now under contract for 2012.
  • David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution thinks the Braves may have cost themselves by waiting to extend Brian McCann.  Yadier Molina's five-year, $75MM extension with the Cardinals will probably raise the price for McCann to as much as $18-$20MM or even more per season.  O'Brien thinks AL teams have an advantage over the Braves if McCann hits free agency, since McCann wouldn't have to play the field in his later years if he went to the American League.  McCann is under contract through 2012 and the Braves hold a $12MM club option on the All-Star catcher for 2013.
  • The Blue Jays may be the best-positioned of any team to benefit from the expanded playoff format, writes ESPN's Jayson Stark.
  • The two East divisions boast seven of the top 16 fantasy pitchers in baseball, according to Mike Axisa's rankings for Roto Authority.  The Phillies alone have three pitchers in the top seven, including Roy Halladay in the top spot.
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