Dodgers Targeting James Shields
The Dodgers have identified James Shields as their top target, Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com reports (hat tip: Rays Index). The Rays will exercise the right-hander’s 2013 option, but could consider trading him as a way of freeing up payroll and addressing other needs.
Dodgers GM Ned Colletti aims to add a starting pitcher this offseason, Saxon writes. Shields would be an excellent fit, as I suggested when previewing the Dodgers’ offseason. The 30-year-old posted a 3.52 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 227 2/3 innings this past season and his contract includes an option for 2014.
Colletti said he has also spoken to the agent for left-handed reliever Randy Choate. The Dodgers made their first major offseason move last night, signing Brandon League to a three-year deal.
Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays, one of the few teams with pitching to spare, have needs at multiple positions this coming offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Matt Moore, SP: $12.5MM through 2016
- James Shields, SP: $10.25MM through 2013
- Wade Davis, RP: $10.1MM through 2014
- Evan Longoria, 3B: $9MM through 2013
- Ben Zobrist, UT: $8MM through 2013
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Matt Joyce, OF: $2.6MM (first time eligible)
- Sean Rodriguez, IF: $1.2MM (first time eligible, non-tender candidate)
- Sam Fuld, OF: $509K (first time eligible)
- David Price, SP: $9.5MM (second time eligible)
- Jeff Niemann, SP: $3.1MM (second time eligible)
- Ryan Roberts, IF: $3MM (second time eligible, non-tender candidate)
- Ben Francisco, OF: $1.7MM (third time eligible, non-tender candidate)
- Burke Badenhop, RP: $1.6MM (third time eligible)
Contract Options
- Luke Scott, DH: $6MM club option with a $1MM buyout
- Fernando Rodney, RP: $2.5MM club option with a $250K buyout
- Jose Molina, C: $1.8MM club option with a $300K buyout
Free Agents
At some point we’ll have to believe Andrew Friedman when he says he doesn’t intend to trade from starting pitching depth. When he said as much a year ago, the rumors continued and the Rays held on to their pitching. Could this offseason be different? James Shields and David Price are becoming more expensive, so this could finally be the year the Rays trade a prominent member of their rotation.
The Rays could address multiple needs by dealing a top-of-the-rotation starter. Their offense ranked 18th in MLB in runs scored, so there’s clearly room for improvement. Still, Friedman has maintained in the past that there’s little use in strengthening one area — such as offense — at the expense of another — in this case pitching.
The Rays were exceptionally good at preventing their opponents from scoring in 2012, allowing the fewest runs in MLB. Their team ERA of 3.19 is even more impressive considering they face designated hitters and play in a division that includes two of the top eight offenses in baseball. The rotation has enough quality arms that Shields or Price could be traded. It'd have to be for the right return though. The Rays haven't always obtained much in trades for starting pitching in the past, once sending Jason Hammel to Colorado for Aneury Rodriguez.
The players themselves are never the only consideration in pro sports, a reality fans of the Rays know better than most. Shields ($10.25MM) and Price (projected arbitration salary of $9.5MM) are making serious money now. Not only could the Rays obtain impact MLB players or prospects for their starters, they could create the payroll flexibility required to address other needs. Any serious offer for Price or Shields will include at least one controllable player with All-Star potential. It could be difficult for the Rays to pass on a trade involving someone like Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar or Mike Olt.
Pinning down the Rays’ payroll won’t be easy — it never is. Their expenses have fluctuated considerably in the past five years, all the way up to $72MM and all the way down to $42MM. Assuming the Rays fall somewhere in that range again in 2013, they’ll have one of the lowest payrolls in the game.
This means yet another homegrown player will leave Tampa Bay and sign elsewhere as a free agent this coming offseason. Center fielder B.J. Upton has positioned himself for a multiyear deal worth $10MM-plus per season and priced himself out of Tampa Bay. That much is certain. It’s less clear whether the Rays will make Upton a qualifying offer and set themselves up for draft pick compensation. An offer seems probable, since the Rays could trade Upton in the unlikely event that he accepts.
The Rays didn't get much offense from first base, designated hitter or catcher this past season. Friedman could look to upgrade at any of those positions in the next few months. With Jeff Keppinger and Upton hitting free agency, there are also potential needs at second base and center field. Thanks to the defensive skills of Ben Zobrist, the Rays have exceptional flexibility. They can pursue players at every position but third base.
Florida native Mike Napoli could be a fit if he's willing to sign a short-term deal. Napoli figures to have multiyear offers, but he might consider a competitive one-year offer to play close to home for a contender. Given the Rays' need for offense at catcher and first base it's worth a shot.
There’s no way the Rays can address each of their needs through free agency, and every other team knows it. They’ll have to consider trades — not just blockbusters but low-profile moves. Could they get an outfielder from the Athletics? An infielder from the Rockies? A catcher from the Blue Jays? A first baseman from the Nationals? The possibilities are just about endless.
The Rays have a medium-sized arbitration class that includes at least three non-tender candidates. Ben Francisco figures to lose his roster spot by the end of November and infielders Sean Rodriguez and Ryan Roberts could also be non-tendered.
Other organizations would view Price as an extension candidate at this stage in his career, but it's extremely hard to envision the Rays paying him market value; it could cost $100MM to sign the left-hander to a six-year deal. It'd be more the Rays' style to pursue extensions for pre-arbitration eligible players such as Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson. Even if it's uncommon for clients of the Boras Corporation to sign so early in their careers, there's no harm in checking in to see if a long-term deal could work for both sides.
The Tampa Bay front office faces four option decisions, one of which has already been picked up. Shields will be a bargain at $10.25MM. Rodney will be a steal at $2.5MM once the Rays exercise his option. The $1.8MM option for 37-year-old Jose Molina will also be exercised. Luke Scott could return if the Rays believe he's healthy enough to hit for power the way he did in Baltimore. Yet he's 34 years of age and spent considerable time on the disabled list last year, so he doesn't seem like the kind of player the Rays would spend significant money on.
As always, Friedman will have to find relief arms on a budget. The Rays have done impressive work supplementing their ‘pen with low-risk relievers in recent years. Rodney, a revelation in 2012, might be Tampa Bay's most impressive relief acquisition of all. He’ll return along with Jake McGee, Burke Badenhop and Wade Davis. However, Joel Peralta, J.P. Howell and Kyle Farnsworth are hitting free agency. Let the search for affordable relievers begin yet again.
The Rays enter the offseason with more needs than most 90-win teams. Their fantastic pitching staff will require a tune-up. And their below-average offense could use upgrades at a number of positions. It could lead to a lot of turnover, not that that’s anything new for Friedman and the Rays.
Photo courtesy of US Presswire.
Rays Expected To Exercise Jose Molina’s Option
The Rays are expected to exercise their $1.8MM option on catcher Jose Molina for 2013, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The move effectively costs the Rays $1.5MM as Molina’s buyout was worth $300K.
At the very least, Molina provides Tampa Bay with a capable backup as they work with a limited budget this winter. The backstop hit .223/.286/.355 with eight homers in 274 plate appearances last year but was worked exceptionally well with the club’s pitchers.
The Rays now have just two options remaining in Fernando Rodney and Luke Scott. Rodney is expected to be retained at $2.5MM while Scott will likely get a buyout of $1MM over a $6MM salary.
Rays To Exercise 2013 Option For James Shields
As expected, the Rays will exercise James Shields' 2013 contract option. The club has informed Shields that they'll pick up his $10.25MM option, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Shields, 30, posted a 3.52 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 227 2/3 innings this past season. His name will no doubt surface in offseason trade rumors in the coming months.
The Rays have three remaining contract options. They'll exercise Fernando Rodney's option at $2.5MM and Luke Scott will probably obtain a $1MM buyout instead of a $6MM salary. The Rays also have an option for Jose Molina valued at $1.8MM.
AL East Notes: Yankees, Rivera, Blue Jays, Rays, Molina
Let's take a look at some items out of the American League East..
- Mariano Rivera says that he isn't sure if he wants to return in 2013, but Buster Olney of ESPN.com (Insider sub. req'd) cautions that it may just be part of negotiations with the Yankees. The closer is coming off of a deal which paid him $15MM in each of the last two seasons and the Bombers will likely try to shave that number down on a new contract. Rivera and the Yankees have a history of tough negotiations, including a couple of years ago when he threatened that he would sign with the Red Sox.
- The Blue Jays are not considering Brad Ausmus, Jim Tracy, or Manny Acta for their managerial vacancy, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach is in the mix along with DeMarlo Hale, Sandy Alomar Jr., and Blue Jays third base coach Brian Butterfield. Along with Butterfield, bench coach Don Wakamatsu is another internal possibility.
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times believes that the Rays will wind up extending a qualifying offer to B.J. Upton as he will most likely turn it down, putting the club in position to net a compensatory pick. Last month, more than 61% of MLBTR readers polled said that the Rays should extend Upton a qualifying offer.
- Meanwhile, the Rays also have a decision to make on Jose Molina's $1.8MM option, which can be bought out for $300K. While the catcher hit just .223/.286/.355 last season, Topkin notes that his work with the pitchers was strong and he could be worth keeping.
AL East Links: Peterson, A-Rod, Otani, Orioles, Loney
The Red Sox will interview Rick Peterson for their pitching coach job, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). The Orioles granted Boston permission to interview Peterson, who is currently Baltimore's director of pitching development and is a former pitching coach with the A's, Mets and Brewers.
Here's the latest from around the AL East…
- No teams have yet contacted the Yankees about a possible Alex Rodriguez trade, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
- The Orioles have scouted Japanese right-hander Shohei Otani, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, confirming an earlier report from Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News that the O's had interest in the 18-year-old prospect. Since Otani has already been drafted (though not signed) by the NPL's Nippon Ham Fighters, Connolly suspects the O's might not make any quick attempts to sign Otani given the Orioles' issues last season in trying to sign Korean southpaw Seong-Min Kim.
- Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton are both too expensive for the Orioles' taste, writes MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko in an analysis of free agents who won't be pursued by the O's this winter. The team doesn't have interest in free agent pitchers Derek Lowe, Jeremy Guthrie, Edwin Jackson or Erik Bedard, while Kevin Youkilis is a longshot based on Baltimore's concerns about his health.
- James Loney has a less than 50-50 chance of returning to the Red Sox, reports MLB.com's Evan Drellich, though the Sox see Loney as a "Plan B" if they're still looking for first base help later in the offseason.
- The Rays have been denied permission by St. Petersburg mayor Bill Foster to explore new stadium sites in nearby counties in Tampa Bay, reports Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune. The Rays' lease at Tropicana Field runs through the 2027 season.
- Mariano Rivera's retirement could help the Yankees avoid a tough decision with the closer's job, opines Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York. If Rivera retired, the Yankees could then pursue a new contract with Rafael Soriano without worrying about committing too much payroll space on closers.
- From earlier today, Joel Sherman of the New York Post had more items about the Yankees.
Minor Moves: Lin, Del Rosario, Thompson, Cubs
Here are some of the minor transactions from around the league…
- The Astros have claimed outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin off waivers from the Red Sox, reports MLB.com's Brian McTaggart (Twitter link). Lin made his Major League debut this season, appearing in nine games for Boston before being designated for assignment last week.
- In a corresponding move, the Astros announced that right-hander Enerio Del Rosario has been designated for assignment. Del Rosario posted a 9.00 ERA in 19 relief innings for Houston last season.
- Outfielder Rich Thompson has elected free agency, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Thompson was outrighted to Triple-A by the Rays earlier this week. The 33-year-old appeared in 23 games for the Rays last season, his first taste of Major League action with a six-game stint with the Royals in 2004.
- The Cubs outrighted Joe Mather, Blake Parker and Justin Germano to Triple-A Iowa, tweets MLB.com's Carrie Muskat. Manny Corpas was also among Chicago's outright assignments today and the reliever has already chosen to become a free agent.
- Matt Eddy of Baseball America recaps the week's minor league transactions, including the news that the Orioles have officially released Dontrelle Willis, who intended to retire back in July.
Arbitration Eligibles: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series. Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.
- First time: Matt Joyce ($2.6MM), Sean Rodriguez ($1.2MM), Sam Fuld ($509K)
- Second time: David Price ($9.5MM), Jeff Niemann ($3.1MM), Ryan Roberts ($3MM)
- Third time: Ben Francisco ($1.7MM), Burke Badenhop ($1.6MM)
His first time through arbitration, Price matched but was unable to top the first-time starting pitcher arbitration record of $4.35MM held by Dontrelle Willis (or $4.365MM by Jered Weaver, if you count award bonuses). His second time through, Weaver aimed for $8.8MM, but received $7.37MM after losing a hearing. With a 20-win platform season and a possible Cy Young award, we project Price to fly well beyond $9MM and set a new second-time record. The Rays control their ace through 2015, but other teams are presumably salivating in hopes of prying him loose before then.
Niemann broke his right fibula in May, and upon returning in September quickly went down again with a shoulder issue. The 29-year-old won't get much of a raise and should certainly be tendered a contract. The Rays have the depth to trade Niemann, but it'd make sense to let him rebuild some value first.
The Rays acquired Roberts in July after the Diamondbacks designated him for assignment. The versatile 32-year-old had a rough year, and with his salary potentially approaching $3MM the Rays may cut him loose. Rodriguez is another non-tender candidate, though it's possible the Rays can find a taker via trade before the end of November. The 27-year-old began the year the favorite at shortstop for the Rays, but was optioned to Triple-A by late August. The Rays were Francisco's third stop in 2012, and he's another non-tender candidate.
Matt Swartz tells me Fuld is a unique case, in that players with such abbreviated platform seasons and light career work rarely make to arbitration and are tendered contracts. Fuld's issue this year was wrist surgery. It appears that Fuld would barely be above the league minimum salary if tendered a contract, so the fact that he's subject to the arbitration process doesn't mean much.
Joyce spent time at both corner outfield positions and continued to struggle against left-handed pitching. He was fairly productive otherwise and should be retained. Badenhop will stick around as well, as his low-walk, high-groundball mix was effective in 2012.
If only Price, Niemann, Joyce, and Badenhop are retained, the Rays are looking at an estimated $16.8MM for four arbitration eligible players.
Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.
Super Two Cutoff To Be 2.139
Players with at least two years and 139 days of service time will be eligible for the potentially lucrative arbitration process this offseason, according to the Associated Press (via FOXNews.com). The top 22% of players with between two and three years of MLB service qualify for arbitration under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement.
Nationals reliever Drew Storen, Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera, Mets catcher Josh Thole, Rays outfielder Sam Fuld, Rockies outfielder Tyler Colvin and Diamondbacks third baseman Chris Johnson are all eligible.
Mariners outfielder Michael Saunders missed the cutoff by one day. Others, including Justin Smoak, Danny Valencia, Michael Brantley, Jordan Schafer, Giancarlo Stanton, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Hudson, Dan Runzler, Andrew Cashner, Alex Burnett, Esmil Rogers and Alexi Ogando, came close to super two status without reaching the threshold.
Jonathan Lucroy, whose contract includes escalators related to super two status, will fall three days short of arbitration eligibility. The difference will cost him $2MM, as I explained last month.
Super two status entitles certain players to four years of arbitration eligibility, rather than the usual three. As a result, players who earn the super two designation generally earn more than their peers. The cutoff would have been two years and 144 days under baseball’s previous collective bargaining agreement, according to the AP. In previous years the top 17% of players with between two and three years of MLB service qualified. The players and owners agreed to a new system last fall.
Cafardo On Mets, Davis, Lincecum, Peavy
The Yankees are obviously frustrated with how their 2012 campaign turned out, but an American League General Manager told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that they won't have to blow things up the way that the Red Sox did in order to improve. “[I] don’t think they necessarily have to hit rock bottom like Boston to get better," said the GM. "We always said you can’t do that in Boston, but it happened. We always say that can’t happen with the Yankees, so I guess we’ll see. But I just see Brian Cashman trying to get this team younger while still competing. That’s what I think will happen.” Here's more from today's column..
- We've heard that the Mets will be open to trading Ike Davis, but special assistant J.P. Ricciardi would be shocked to see any movement on the first baseman. Davis has often been linked to the Red Sox and the Rays would also be a fit. Tampa Bay could certainly afford to part ways with a pitcher in order to improve their offense.
- Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum will be available in trade and it will be interesting to see what kind of market develops for him. The Giants say his problems were strictly mechanical, but other teams wonder why his fastball dipped from around 96 mph to 92 mph for most of the season. The 28-year-old is due $22MM in the final year of his deal.
- The White Sox will decline Jake Peavy's $22MM option for 2013 and one National League GM sees him fetching a three-year deal worth $36-40MM on the open market. Understandably, the GM cautioned that team doctors would have to do a thorough check on him despite the fact that he stayed healthy this past season.
- Ricciardi's deal with the Mets is up but he expects to return. So far, no one has inquired on him as a GM candidate or something close, though he says he would like to return to the front office.