Extension Candidate: Desmond Jennings
At the moment, the AL Rookie of the Year race seems to be wide open. Right-handers Michael Pineda, Ivan Nova, Jordan Walden and Jeremy Hellickson all deserve consideration, as do AL West hitters Mark Trumbo and Dustin Ackley. There was a late addition to the Rookie of the Year race though, and that's Rays outfielder Desmond Jennings.
Tampa did not call up the 24-year-old Jennings until late-July, but since arriving he's been one of the very best hitters in baseball. Not just among rookies either, among all players. His batting line sits at .324/.419/.581 in 175 plate appearances, and since coming up he ranks ninth in MLB in OBP, 18th in SLG, 24th in homers (eight), and first in stolen bases (14). FanGraphs places Jennings' value at 2.2 wins above replacement already, which is fourth most among all rookie position players even though he's come to the plate at least 101 fewer times than the three players ahead of him (Danny Espinosa, Ackley, and Wilson Ramos).
Jennings did receive a September call-up last year and it's not hard to connect the dots and suggest that his promotion in 2011 was delayed due to service time. He will finish the season with less than one full year of service time, which isn't exactly when teams start handing out extensions. The Rays have set a bit of a precedent though, famously inking Evan Longoria to a six-year, $17.5MM contract after just six days in the big leagues. James Shields was barely over one year of service time when he signed his four-year, $11.25MM contract. Tampa has shown a willingness to take on risk in exchange for cost control of their best young players, making Jennings a prime extension candidate.
The recent Jose Tabata extension gives us a great idea of the market value for a young outfielder with approximately a year of service time. The Pirates gave their 23-year-old outfielder six years and $15MM guaranteed, though three club options could push the total value of the package to $37.25MM. The Rays love getting those club option years as well; both Longoria's and Shields' contracts contain three option years each while Ben Zobrist's deal includes two. Tabata is just about two years younger than Jennings and his big league sample is much larger (815 PA vs. 199 PA), but he hasn't hit as much as the Tampa outfielder (.286/.349/.385 career) and UZR doesn't like his defense as much either. There's not much of a point in comparing the two players statistically given how long they've been in the show, but remember that teams are paying for what they expect in future, not what they've gotten in the past.
One legitimate reason not to give Jennings a long-term contract is his durability, or lack thereof. He missed the final month of the 2007 season due to knee surgery, played in just 24 games in 2008 due to back and shoulder troubles (surgery on the shoulder), and then battled a wrist issue in 2010. The Rays can't afford to miss on a long-term contract extension, so they'll need to feel confident in his ability to stay on the field before deciding to take the plunge. Baseball America thinks enough of Jennings' talent that they ranked him as the 22nd best prospect in baseball before the season despite those injury concerns, the fourth consecutive year he's earned a spot on their top 100 prospects list. It's also worth noting that Jennings is a Scott Boras client.
It seems likely that Tampa will part ways B.J. Upton at some point within the next year, at which point Jennings will just slide over to center field. They're guaranteed to have him at a salary close to the league minimum for at least another two seasons thanks to the pre-arbitration rules, but it's not out of the question that the Rays may decide to lock Jennings in at a below-market rate before that transition occurs.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
List Of Teams Interested In Yu Darvish
Yu Darvish apparently intends to pitch in the Major Leagues next year and it would be surprising if he doesn't draw interest from ten-plus teams. The 25-year-old right-hander has a 1.54 ERA with 10.6 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 175 innings this season. Those numbers are typical for Davish, who entered the season with a 1.81 ERA, 9.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in four years with the Nippon Ham Fighters.
Here's a list of which teams have been linked to Darvish in the last calendar year:
- Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos is in Japan and saw Darvish pitch, according to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.
- The Nationals maintain interest.
- The Yankees have scouted him heavily.
- Rangers GM Jon Daniels watched Darvish in June.
- The Orioles had interest last offseason.
- The Red Sox have been linked to Darvish.
- The Rays watched Darvish about a year ago.
At this point, we don't know whether the clubs above were simply being diligent or whether they intend to make serious bids for Darvish. This list can't be considered comprehensive because other teams have likely been covert about their interest. What we can say at this point is that Darvish would be a welcome commodity in a starting pitching market that's light on top-of-the-rotation pitchers.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Orioles, Montero, Rays
The Orioles sent Mike Gonzalez to Texas earlier this afternoon, but not before a division rival got involved in the trade talks. Here's the latest from the AL East…
- Red Sox GM Theo Epstein responded to speculation about the Cubs' GM opening by saying that he's happy in Boston and “all Red Sox, all the time," according Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
- Gonzalez told MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli that he'd listen to offers from the Orioles if they're interested in signing him this offseason.
- ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick looks back at what went wrong for the Orioles this year and starts to address the question of how they can turn things around.
- The Yankees were also involved in trade talks for Gonzalez, according to MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko. However, Baltimore president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail preferred the pitcher the Rangers were offering.
- Yankees manager Joe Girardi sounds like he's ready for Jesus Montero to join the team tomorrow, according to MLB.com's Bryan Hoch (on Twitter).
- As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained earlier today, Montero would have to be added to the Yankees' now-full 40-man roster before getting called up.
- The Rays aren't expect to make any deals today, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times (on Twitter).
Players Who Cleared Waivers
This is a running list of players who have cleared waivers, based on published reports. Once a player clears waivers, he can be traded to any team (barring a no-trade clause). This list can always be found in the sidebar under MLBTR Features. Player names are linked to the source articles.
Updated 8-30-11 at 10:56pm
Starting pitchers
- Aaron Harang, Padres - Harang's ERA is a respectable 3.92 with 6.7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
- Dontrelle Willis, Reds – Willis has bounced back with the Reds, posting a 4.10 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9, and 56.8% groundball rate in 52 2/3 innings.
- Carlos Zambrano, Cubs – Zambrano cleared waivers prior to being placed on the disqualified list. He has a short fuse, lousy stats, and over $22MM remaining on his contract through next year.
- Rodrigo Lopez, Cubs – Not surprising to see the journeyman clear waivers.
- Chris Capuano, Mets – Capuano owns a 3.74 SIERA as of August 14th and earns only $1.5MM plus incentives, so it's hard to see why a few teams didn't place claims.
- Bronson Arroyo, Reds – His peripheral stats haven't changed much, but Arroyo has a 5.31 ERA as of August 15th. $15MM of his $35MM contract is deferred through 2021 without interest. The deferrals are voided if he's traded, however. At any rate, expect Arroyo to stay put.
- Bruce Chen, Royals – Chen has his moments, but it's not surprising to see him clear waivers.
- Jason Vargas, Mariners – Like many of the starters here, Vargas' fastball wouldn't break a window. But he has less than a million bucks left on his contract this year and is under team control through 2013. He'd fit nicely at the back end of several rotations.
- Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals – His three starts this season were his first in over two years, so it's understandable that contenders wouldn't jump to claim him.
- Tom Gorzelanny, Nationals – Booted to the bullpen last month, the 29-year-old flyballing southpaw has posted strong strikeout rates in recent years but can't hold a rotation job.
- Ted Lilly, Dodgers – He always has strong strikeout-to-walk numbers, but is prone to the longball. With over 82% of his $33MM contract remaining ($27MM+), it's no surprise he cleared waivers.
Relievers
- Joe Nathan, Twins - Nathan won't be traded, according to Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.
- Chad Qualls, Padres – Qualls is enjoying a bounce-back season, though his strikeout rate dipped to 5.3 K/9 this year.
- Bill Bray, Reds – Bray has been decent this year, and a little tougher against lefties. He'll be arbitration eligible for the second time this offseason.
- Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers – A dominant reliever last year, Kuo has dealt with a back injury and anxiety disorder as his control has eluded him.
- Huston Street, Rockies – Between a recent triceps injury and the $9MM+ owed to him through 2012, Street was expected to clear.
- Brian Fuentes, Athletics – He's owed over $6MM through next year, and has been mediocre for the A's.
- Jon Rauch, Blue Jays – Rauch is affordable, but he's on the DL for an appendectomy and wasn't great before that.
- Mike Gonzalez, Orioles – Gonzalez has been dominant in August, and against lefties. The problem is that he's still owed almost a million bucks.
- Kevin Gregg, Orioles – Gregg might be the worst reliever holding down a closer's job, and he's owed at least $6.4MM through next year.
- John Grabow, Cubs – He's been ineffective even against lefties, and he has over $700K remaining.
- D.J. Carrasco, Mets – The Mets signed Carrasco to a two-year deal in December – their biggest acquisition of the offseason - but optioned him to Triple-A in April. He stayed there until mid-June.
Position players
- Aramis Ramirez, Cubs – In July, Ramirez's agent said that his client would consider an August deal but he has since had a change of heart. The Cubs hold an option on Ramirez's deal worth $16MM.
- Alfonso Soriano, Cubs – This one was also obvious. SI's Jon Heyman notes on Twitter that the Cubs are willing to pay a "major, major chunk" of the $58.35MM owed to the left fielder through 2014.
- Lance Berkman, Cardinals – Berkman has said he hopes to re-sign with St. Louis after the season, when he hits free agency. Still, it's a surprise to see him clear waivers.
- Ryan Theriot, Cardinals - Theriot earns $3.3MM this year and will be a non-tender candidate after the season.
- David Wright, Mets - It's surprising that Wright cleared waivers, but it doesn't mean the Mets have interest in dealing him. Wright earns $15MM next year and can void a $16MM club option for 2013 if traded.
- Conor Jackson, Athletics – Olney notes that the Red Sox asked about the light-hitting 1B/LF/RF, but there doesn't seem to be any traction there.
- David DeJesus, Athletics – DeJesus has had a rough year but could at least be useful against right-handed pitching.
- Hideki Matsui, Athletics – The Athletics have several waiver trade candidates, and Matsui's hot second half and low salary (owed less than $2MM the rest of the season) could make him a popular target.
- Jason Bay, Mets – With Bay being owed at least $38.8MM through 2013, this was expected. It's only been 12 games, but Bay is at least having his first good month of 2011.
- Willie Harris, Mets – The versatile Harris has less than $200K left on his contract.
- Angel Pagan, Mets – It's been a dismal year for Pagan, who may be in line for a non-tender after the season.
- Carlos Lee, Astros – No surprise here, as the 35-year-old is hitting .263/.321/.417 and is owed almost $23MM through next year. El Caballo's ten-and-five rights kick in after the season.
- Johnny Damon, Rays – Damon blocked an August trade last summer and 12 months later he's a candidate to be traded once again.
Tim Dierkes contributed to this post.
Players Claimed And Pulled Back
A player who is claimed on waivers can be pulled back by his original team, and it happens regularly. It could be that the two sides just couldn't reach a deal, or it might be that the original team never intended to trade the player. Technically a player can be placed on waivers a second time, but it's rare because in that case he cannot be pulled back. Reportedly, at least 16 players have been claimed and pulled back this month:
- Ryan Dempster
- Kyle Farnsworth
- Joel Peralta
- Edwin Jackson
- B.J. Upton
- Heath Bell – claimed by Giants
- Tim Byrdak
- Chris Carpenter
- Coco Crisp
- Scott Hairston
- Rich Harden – claimed by Indians
- Ramon Hernandez
- Jason Isringhausen
- Jason Kubel – claimed by Indians
- Carlos Pena – claimed by Yankees
- Wandy Rodriguez – claimed by Rockies
Many players were placed on waivers and were not traded, including John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Paul Konerko, Matt Thornton, Brett Myers, Clint Barmes, and Craig Breslow. It's safe to assume several of these players were claimed and then pulled back. Additionally, at least 23 players have cleared waivers and can be traded to any team.
Arbitration Eligibles: Tampa Bay Rays
We've covered the Orioles, Red Sox, and Yankees; now it's time to look at Rays players who will be arbitration eligible after the season.
- First time: David Price, Jeff Niemann
- Second time: Andy Sonnanstine
- Third time: B.J. Upton, J.P. Howell
- Fourth time: Joel Peralta
Sonnanstine and Howell are potential non-tender candidates, as both have had rough years. Sonnanstine is currently at Triple-A.
Price and Upton will be a relatively expensive pair. Price, an expected Super Two player, comes with a projected $5.9MM salary that would be a first-time starter record if we didn't expect Clayton Kershaw to do even better. Price's days as cheap ace are ending. Upton, a trade candidate, projects in the $7MM range.
Niemann and Peralta are worth retaining as well. Niemann is looking at a first-time salary in the $2.7MM range, while Peralta could come in at a still-affordable $1.8MM.
Minor Moves: Hayhurst, Banks
The latest minor moves…
- The Rays released Triple-A right-hander Dirk Hayhurst, according to the Tampa Tribune (on Twitter). Hayhurst, author of the highly entertaining book The Bullpen Gospels, last appeared in the Major Leagues with the 2009 Blue Jays. He had a 4.12 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 59 innings for the Rays' top affiliate this year.
- The independent Long Island Ducks announced that they signed former Major LeaguerJosh Banks. The 2003 second rounder pitched for the Astros last year and also has MLB experience with the Blue Jays and Padres.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Upton, Snider
Adrian Gonzalez won the AL Player of the Week Award for last week after homering five times in seven days. Here's the latest from a division that includes a number of prominent MVP candidates, including Gonzalez…
- Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com argues that Red Sox manager Terry Francona deserves more credit. The skipper has never won AL Manager of the Year, but Edes says he deserves it this year for the work he has done leading the Red Sox to an AL-best 82-51 record.
- B.J. Upton told Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that he's happy the Rays chose to hold onto him instead of trading him. The outfielder, who will be arbitration eligible for the final time this offseason, says he'd "love" to be back in Tampa Bay in 2012.
- Travis Snider acknowledged to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca that his position in the Blue Jays organization has changed in recent years. The Jays demoted the former first rounder twice this season and he has lost ground on the depth chart to Eric Thames and others. Snider's resting his right wrist now and looking forward to the 2012 campaign.
B.J. Upton Claimed; No Deal
MONDAY: The deadline to trade Upton has passed, notes Topkin, so he's staying with the Rays.
SATURDAY: B.J. Upton has been claimed off trade waivers by an unknown team, reports Marc Topkin of The St. Petersburg Times. The Rays have until Monday to work out a trade with the claiming team or pull their center fielder back, and Topkin says a deal seems unlikely as of right now.
Upton, who just turned 27, was a popular name before the trade deadline as teams looked for alternatives to the pricier Hunter Pence and Carlos Beltran. The Braves, Indians, Phillies, Giants, Pirates, and Nationals all had interest in July, though the first five teams ended up with other outfielders. The Nats may still have interest, though again we don't know which team actually made the claim.
Scheduled to become a free agent after 2012, Upton is being paid $4.825MM this season and will be arbitration-eligible again this winter. He's hitting just .224/.304/.390 with 17 homers in 495 plate appearances this year, but as always a big chunk of his value comes from his legs (26 steals) and defense (fourth best UZR among all center fielders since 2009).
NL Central Links: McCutchen, Cubs, Ramirez, Crane
After Yovani Gallardo struck out ten Cubs en route to another Milwaukee victory, the club's division lead reached double digits for the first time this season, with the Cardinals now 10.5 games back. The Brewers will send Zack Greinke to the hill today as they look to sweep the Cubs and continue chipping away at their magic number (19). Let's check out the rest of the morning's updates from the NL Central….
- Although the Pirates and Andrew McCutchen were discussing a possible extension earlier this year, talks remain at a standstill for now. The outfielder's agent, Steve Hammond, told Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that "it's time to focus on playing baseball and winning games" and that further extension discussions could happen later.
- A raise and increased payroll flexibility wouldn't necessarily convince Andrew Friedman to leave the Rays for the Cubs, according to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. "Don't think because this is a glamorous situation he's going to want to jump to it," said manager Joe Maddon. "That's not true."
- Aramis Ramirez tells Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune that, having never reached free agency before, he's unsure what to expect if it happens this winter.
- Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle wonders if the delay in approving new Astros ownership is the league's way of saying it has "lingering doubts" about Jim Crane.