Dodgers Don’t Issue Qualifying Offer To Clayton Kershaw
As expected, the Dodgers officially announced that both Corey Seager and Chris Taylor will receive qualifying offers prior to today’s 4pm CT deadline. However, Seager and Taylor were the only players mentioned, meaning that Clayton Kershaw will enter free agency without the qualifying offer attached to his services.
Kershaw, Taylor, and Seager were the only Dodger free agents who were both eligible for the QO (Max Scherzer and Kenley Jansen weren’t eligible, for the record) and seemed like candidates to be issued the one-year, $18.4MM deal. Seager was obviously a no-brainer and Taylor also seemed like an increasingly obvious lock for the QO, but Kershaw’s case suddenly became much cloudier due to his season-ending forearm injury. While Kershaw’s injury won’t require surgery and he expects to be ready for Spring Training, the issue certainly seems substantial enough for the Dodgers to have doubts about an $18.4MM commitment.
It isn’t a guarantee that Kershaw would have accepted a qualifying offer, but it would certainly seem like a possibility considering his injury-shortened 2021 campaign. Elbow inflammation sidelined Kershaw for over two months, and his forearm problems then prevented him from taking part in the Dodgers’ postseason run. Over 121 2/3 innings pitched, however, Kershaw still posted a 3.55 ERA with outstanding strikeout (29.5%) and walk (4.3%) rates.
The lack of a QO doesn’t necessarily spell the end of Kershaw’s run in a Dodgers uniform. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has already said that the team will approach Kershaw’s trip to the open market in a different manner than they would a normal free agent, given Kershaw’s legendary status in Los Angeles.
Interpreted another way, however, it could be that the Dodgers are giving Kershaw a bit of leeway towards a potential departure by not extending a qualifying offer. If Kershaw rejected a QO, his new team would have to give up a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money to sign him, which could have hampered Kershaw’s market to some extent.
Now, the southpaw doesn’t have anything hindering his first-ever trip to free agency, which would at least slightly increase the chance that Kershaw’s Dodgers tenure could be up after 14 seasons. There has been speculation that the Texas native might be interested in pitching closer to home, which would put the Astros and particularly the Rangers (Kershaw is from Dallas and lives in the area) on the radar as possible landing spots.
Dodgers Decline Option On Joe Kelly
The Los Angeles Dodgers have declined the $12MM club option for Joe Kelly for the 2022 season, per the team. The right-hander will receive a $4MM buyout and head to the open market, though a return to LA is certainly a possibility.
Kelly was hurt in his last appearance this postseason after serving as an opener. The pain “stemmed from the musculocutaneous nerve in Kelly’s arm,” per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. He is expected to resume a throwing program in six weeks, so he should have no problem getting ready for opening day.
Kelly and his mustache had a solid season in relief for the Dodgers. The 33-year-old appeared in 48 games, tossed 44 innings, and put up a 2.86 ERA/3.08 FIP. The power righty picked up a pair of saves and 13 holds while striking out a robust 27.5 percent of batters and walking a league-average 8.2 percent. He’ll be an attractive option for a contender given his postseason and high leverage experience.
Dodgers Outright Scott Alexander, Two Others
The Dodgers outrighted three players off the 40-man roster this evening, the team informed reporters (including Juan Toribio of MLB.com). Relievers Scott Alexander and Jimmie Sherfy and utilityman Andy Burns have all passed through waivers unclaimed. All three players have the right to become minor league free agents.
Alexander is the most notable of the group, as he’d been a productive bullpen option for manager Dave Roberts when healthy. That’s a rather significant qualifier, though, as he hasn’t eclipsed twenty innings in any of the past three seasons. Alexander posted a sub-4.00 ERA in all four seasons as a Dodger (and in two preceding years with the Royals), but he’s been plagued by injuries in recent years.
The southpaw missed a good portion of the 2019 campaign with forearm inflammation, and he missed around four months of this past season because of a shoulder issue. Alexander didn’t pitch after July 19, and Los Angeles elected to clear a 40-man roster spot rather than bring him back for his final year of club control on a projected $1.3MM arbitration salary. Before the injury, the 32-year-old put up numbers right in line with his career trend. He’d tossed 15 1/3 frames of relief with a strong 2.93 ERA, making up for a minuscule 11.9% strikeout percentage with one of the game’s highest ground-ball rates (61.1%).
Sherfy also ended the season on the injured list, in his case due to a bout of elbow inflammation. L.A. had claimed him from the archrival Giants not long before, and Sherfy’s time in Dodger blue looks likely to consist of just four appearances. Between San Francisco and Los Angeles, the 29-year-old tossed 15 frames of 4.20 ERA ball in 2021. He spent the 2017-19 campaigns with the D-Backs and owns a 3.28 ERA with roughly average strikeout and walk rates (23.8% and 8.3%, respectively) in 60 1/3 big league innings.
Burns played in just nine regular season games before being outrighted off the roster. He was re-selected back after Justin Turner’s season-ending injury during the NLCS necessitated the club adding some extra infield depth. Burns didn’t wind up appearing in a playoff game, though, and he’s likely headed back to the open market. The 31-year-old hit .232/.361/.412 over 216 plate appearances with Triple-A Oklahoma City this year but has very limited MLB experience.
Trevor Bauer To Decline Opt-Out For 2022 Season
Dodgers right-hander Trevor Bauer will remain in his contract for the 2022 season, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). Bauer had the option of exercising an opt-out clause in order to test free agency again this winter, but he will instead remain on the Dodgers’ books for a $32MM salary next season. Bauer can also opt out following next season, and if so, would take a $15MM buyout rather than a $32MM salary for 2023.
Bauer hasn’t pitched since June 28, and it remains to be seen if he will ever play Major League Baseball again in the wake of assault allegations and a temporary ex parte restraining order filed against Bauer by a woman in California in July. This led to the revelation of another protection order that a court granted a woman in Ohio against Bauer in 2020, from an alleged incident that took place in 2017. In regards to the California incident, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office is still reviewing the police evidence against Bauer to determine whether or not criminal charges will be filed.
MLB placed Bauer on paid administrative leave in early July, and the league and the MLB Players Association subsequently agreed to several extensions on that leave through the end of the World Series. As a result, Bauer has already been paid the $38MM owed to him ($28MM salary, $10MM signing bonus) through the first year of his three-year, $102MM free agent deal signed with the Dodgers last February. $20MM of that 2021 salary would’ve been paid out in deferrals had Bauer elected to opt out.
Needless to say, there was no chance Bauer was going to walk away from that $64MM, though he might yet lose at least part of that salary via suspension. As per the MLB/MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy, the league has the ability to suspend Bauer regardless of any criminal charges that may or may not be brought against him. “The expectation around the sport is that the league would pursue a suspension of at least one year,” ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote in August, and it seems very possible that Bauer would appeal any suspension issued, unlike other players suspended under the joint policy.
Rotation Market Rumors: Kershaw, Gausman, Giants, DeSclafani
Clayton Kershaw’s 2021 season didn’t go as hoped. The Dodgers icon was sharp when healthy and posted his best K-BB% (25.3) since 2017, ultimately logging a 3.55 ERA in 121 1/3 innings with even better fielding-independent marks. That said, Kershaw also missed more than two months due to a forearm injury and was only able to briefly return before a recurrence of that same issue wiped him out for the postseason. Asked at his end-of-season press conference whether Kershaw would be viewed differently than other free agents because of his history with the club, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters that’s likely to be the case (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Juan Toribio):
“Yeah, I think that’s fair,” said Friedman. “Obviously what he’s meant to this organization, to the city — from his standpoint, I think it’s all about what makes sense for him and Ellen and their family. … “I think, taking off my president of baseball operations hat, there’s something nostalgic and great about Kersh playing with one team and being able to win another championship and having a parade.”
Friedman noted that Kershaw has earned the right to do what’s best for his family but spoke glowingly of the lefty’s legacy and implied a desire to continue the relationship. Kershaw reportedly won’t require surgery, and the Dodgers will have the option of making a qualifying offer to the veteran southpaw.
More notes on the looming free-agent market for starting pitchers…
- There’s a “strong” chance that the Giants will push to work out a multi-year deal to keep Kevin Gausman atop their rotation, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. The Giants value the chemistry that was developed during this year’s postseason push and have interest in maintaining some continuity, which could lead them to explore reunions with any of Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood. San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already gone on record to call the rotation the team’s “number one priority” this offseason, no surprise given the impending free agencies of Gausman, DeSclafani, Wood and Johnny Cueto (whose $22MM club option will assuredly be bought out for $5MM). The Giants have about as much payroll flexibility as any team in baseball, giving Zaidi and his staff myriad options in rebuilding the rotation over the coming months. It certainly stands to reason they’ll be active in the market for Gausman, who has an even 3.00 ERA with stellar strikeout and walk numbers (30% and 6.5%, respectively) over 251 2/3 innings in black and orange since the start of 2020.
- Gausman received a qualifying offer last winter, making him ineligible for another in his career. The Giants will have to decide whether to offer an $18.4MM QO to one or both of DeSclafani and Wood in the coming days, though. Grant Brisbee of the Athletic opines the club should offer a QO to DeSclafani based on the aforementioned rotation uncertainty and payroll flexibility. Signed to a bounceback deal last offseason following a poor 2020 with the Reds, DeSclafani made 31 starts and worked 167 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA/4.11 SIERA ball this past season. Brisbee doesn’t expect San Francisco to risk that lofty one-year sum on a QO for Wood, however. Also a low-cost flier last winter, Wood impressed with 138 2/3 frames with a 3.83 ERA/3.60 SIERA. Injuries limited the veteran southpaw to just 48 1/3 combined innings from 2019-20, though, and it remains to be seen how much of an effect durability concerns could have on Wood’s free agent market this time around.
Latest On Mets’ Front Office Search
NOVEMBER 1: The Red Sox are expected to grant Ferreira permission to interview with the Mets, assuming she’s interested in doing so, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (on Twitter).
OCTOBER 30, 1:23PM: Brewers VP of baseball operations Matt Kleine is another candidate the Mets have discussed, as per Martino (Twitter link). With both Kleine and Rodriguez, however, the Mets are wary about approaching the Brewers and Rays since both teams have repeatedly denied New York’s requests to interview other front office personnel in the past. Kleine is believed to be interested, and his hiring could help set the stage for the Mets to land Stearns as a free agent a year from now (or after the 2023 season, depending on the reported vesting option in Stearns’ deal with Milwaukee).
OCTOBER 30, 8:05AM: The Mets’ attempts to hire a new president of baseball operations or general manager has hit its share of roadblocks, and Dodgers assistant GM Jeff Kingston is the latest executive to decline an interview with the team, according to The New York Post’s Mike Puma. However, several other prospective candidates remain, as it seems as though the Mets now could be specifically looking for a general manager, rather than someone to fully take the entire reigns of the baseball ops department.
To this end, Puma writes Rays VP of player development Carlos Rodriguez, and assistant GMs Daniel Adler (Twins), Randy Flores (Cardinals), and Ben Sestanovich (Braves) are all “on the Mets’ radar” as possible candidates. The Mets have also asked the Red Sox for permission to speak with assistant GM Raquel Ferreira, SNY’s Andy Martino reports.
Any of these five executives would be a first-time GM, and ostensibly in charge of the baseball operations department even without the official “president” label. The unusual nature of the Mets’ front office dynamic has led to some questions about how much authority a new GM would have, as team president Sandy Alderson is remaining with the club and has said he’ll be shifting over to focusing on the team’s business matters once a new baseball ops head is in place.
Had Mets owner Steve Cohen been successful in luring one of his big-ticket initial targets (i.e. Billy Beane, Theo Epstein, David Stearns) to New York, it would’ve made for a smoother transition, as any of those execs would’ve been the PBO and had the sway to make their own choice for a general manager to act as their chief lieutenant. However, it is perhaps understandable why Kingston and others have opted out of what could be considered as something of a glorified one-year trial period. If the Mets play well in 2022, a newly-hired GM could be entrusted to become the president of baseball operations; if the Mets struggle, Cohen could resume his search for a major name as PBO, leaving the general manager as perhaps something of a lame duck.
Cardinals GM Michael Girsch, Giants GM Scott Harris, newly-promoted Brewers GM Matt Arnold, and another Dodgers assistant in Brandon Gomes have all declined to be considered for the Mets’ job. For the five names mentioned by Puma and Martino, it is possible any of the Rays, Twins, Cardinals, Braves, or Red Sox could deny New York permission to interview their personnel, though teams usually don’t stand in the way of their executives being offered a promotion.
Kingston technically has experience as a general manager, as he served as the Mariners’ interim GM for the last month-plus of the 2015 season after Jack Zduriencik was fired. Kingston has worked as an assistant GM for the last six seasons (three with the Mariners, three with the Dodgers) and he has been considered for other front office openings in recent years. The Phillies and Angels each had interest in Kingston for their most recent GM vacancies, and Kingston was a finalist for the Angels’ position before the team hired Perry Minasian.
Dodgers Plan To Decline Option On Joe Kelly
The Dodgers hold a $12MM club option with a $4MM buyout on right-hander Joe Kelly, but Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times reports that the team is planning to pay him the buyout rather than pick up the net $8MM option. Part of the reasoning, according to Castillo, is that the biceps strain which caused Kelly to be removed from the NLCS roster is significant enough that he won’t be ready for the start of the 2022 season.
If that indeed proves to be the case, it’ll be an obvious detriment to Kelly’s free-agent stock this offseason. The 33-year-old could’ve been in position to command another multi-year deal were he at full strength, and the Dodgers would have had to give some consideration to a net $8MM decision for next year. Kelly’s first season in L.A. (2019) didn’t go as smoothly as he or the team hoped, but he’s pitched to a 2.67 ERA with a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 9.8% walk rate over the past two seasons. He averaged 98.1 mph on his heater this year — his best mark since 2018 — and also notched a career-best 11.6% swinging-strike rate.
The possible departure of Kelly is just one layer of what looks like a large amount of turnover among the Los Angeles relief corps. The Dodgers also have each of Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel and Jimmy Nelson up for free agency this winter, and it’s unlikely that they’ll retain all of those pending free agents.
Depending on how strong an effort the Dodgers make to retain that group, the late-inning picture will look quite different for Dave Roberts & Co. Blake Treinen could step into the closer’s role for the first time since departing Oakland a few years back, while flamethrowing Brusdar Graterol would likely be in line for a higher-leverage role. The Dodgers will also hope to have former Yankees setup man Tommy Kahnle play a prominent role in 2022. He inked a two-year pact with Los Angeles last offseason, and the Dodgers knew at the time that he’d miss the 2021 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Turning back to Kelly, it remains to be seen just when he’ll be ready to go next season. If his outlook ultimately is strong enough that he can make it back to the mound relatively early in the season, he should still generate strong interest in free agency. Beyond the fact that he’s one of the hardest throwers on the free-agent market, Kelly has a lengthy track record of missing bats at a strong clip and limiting home runs at a far better level than the average reliever. Kelly has allowed just 0.63 HR/9 over the past five seasons; the league-average relief pitcher has yielded 1.20 HR/9 in that time.
Albert Pujols Planning To Play In 2022
Oct. 31: Pujols himself recently declared his intent to continue his playing career (link via ESPN). He notes that the decision to play in the Dominican Winter League for the first time is a matter of fulfilling a longstanding promise that he’d play there before retirement. However, Pujols emphasized that the timing of his DWL debut doesn’t mean his retirement is nigh.
“My time to retire hasn’t arrived yet,” said Pujols. “Why do I have to retire because someone tells me to? I’m going to do it on my terms and when I feel I can’t play anymore.”
Oct. 28: After 21 seasons in the majors, Albert Pujols isn’t quite done yet, as a source close to the veteran slugger tells Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register that Pujols “for sure” wants to play in 2022. Pujols is already planning to suit up in the Dominican Winter League for the first time, to further show his readiness for any interested big league clubs.
Pujols will be a free agent this offseason, as the ten-year, $240MM deal he signed with the Angels in his last trip to the open market is now up. The Angels paid handsomely for the superstar production of Pujols’ 11 seasons with the Cardinals, though his time in Anaheim was much less successful, as he batted only .256/.311/.447 over his 5053 plate appearances in a Halos uniform.
As his numbers declined, it seemed increasingly likely that Pujols would simply retire after his deal was up, though he found some level of a revival after joining the Dodgers. After the Angels surprisingly released Pujols back in May, the Dodgers signed him shortly thereafter, and he carved out a new niche for himself in a platoon role. While Pujols had only a .500 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2021, he was still very dangerous against southpaws, hitting lefties to the tune of a .294/.336/.603 slash line over 146 PA, with 13 home runs.
While 146 PA isn’t the largest of sample sizes, teams in need of some first base/DH depth could have interest in seeing what Pujols has left in the tank. Though Pujols was able to land with the Dodgers even without the benefit of an available designated hitter spot, soon the entire National League might have need for an extra bat, should the universal DH become part of the next collective bargaining agreement. For a relatively inexpensive one-year contract, teams could have a lefty-mashing veteran whose could also draw some extra fan attention, considering how Pujols continues to inch up the all-time lists in multiple categories. Pujols has 679 career home runs, and after he hit 17 in 2021, Fletcher suggests Pujols might be motivated to see if he can crack the 700-homer threshold.
The first base market is fungible enough that trying to predict a landing spot for Pujols is difficult, though the Cardinals stand out as the obvious sentimental choice. Paul Goldschmidt has first base now covered in St. Louis and the Cards’ lineup is already pretty right-handed as it is, but if there’s a DH spot to work with, more than nostalgia could be involved in bringing Pujols back for Yadier Molina‘s last season (and could possibly also be Adam Wainwright‘s last season).
Diamondbacks Claim Edwin Uceta
The Diamondbacks have claimed right-hander Edwin Uceta off waivers from the division-rival Dodgers. While neither club has formally announced the move just yet, the claim is noted on the transaction log at MLB.com, and Uceta himself thanked the Dodgers org and expressed gratitude to the D-backs in an Instagram post last night. Uceta was designated for assignment by the Dodgers during the NLCS, when L.A. needed to create a roster spot for infielder Andy Burns in the wake of Justin Turner‘s injury.
The 23-year-old Uceta made his big league debut with the Dodgers in 2021 but pitched just 20 1/3 frames throughout multiple stints at the MLB level. The results in that scattered cup of coffee weren’t great, as Uceta yielded 15 earned runs on 19 hits and a dozen walks — albeit with an impressive 25 punchouts.
Uceta pitched in just 25 total games (five starts, 20 relief outings) between the big leagues and the minors this season, missing time due to a pair of lumbar strains. He fanned 27.2 percent of his opponents in the big leagues and 29.5 percent in Triple-A, but Uceta also walked 10.1 percent of his Triple-A opponents and logged a 13 percent mark in the Majors.
Baseball America has ranked Uceta among the Dodgers’ top 30 prospects in each of the past three seasons, including a No. 18 placement on their midseason rankings in 2021. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen had him at No. 33 in the Dodgers’ system on his own midseason rankings, while Uceta was omitted from L.A.’s top 30 over at MLB.com. Both BA and FanGraphs call him a potential back-of-the-rotation starter who’ll likely need to add some bulk to his 6’0″, 155-pound frame. Uceta carries a career 3.79 ERA in 360 2/3 minor league frames and averaged 92.8 mph on his heater during this year’s brief MLB debut.
It’s hardly a surprise to see the D-backs quickly scoop up some potential rotation depth — particularly since Uceta has minor league options remaining beyond the 2021 season. The Snakes will have Madison Bumgarner, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Tyler Gilbert and (assuming his eminently reasonable $5.25MM option is exercised) Merrill Kelly as the rotation favorites heading into 2022. They’ll need depth beyond that quintet, however, and it’s plausible that some of their incumbent arms — Kelly in particular, given that he’s a free agent after the ’22 season — could draw offseason trade interest.
Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent
The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st, and it’s unclear whether its rules for draft pick compensation will remain in place for the 2021-22 offseason, whenever teams eventually sign free agents. It’s at least possible that the current rules will be used once more. We know that the qualifying offer is set at $18.4MM this winter, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO. If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose – if the old rules are used.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres
If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins
These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty. Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.
All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees
These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground. The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.
What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.