Ross Atkins, Tony LaCava Are Finalists For Blue Jays’ GM Position
Indians VP of player personnel Ross Atkins and Blue Jays interim general manager Tony LaCava are finalists for Toronto’s GM vacancy, sources familiar with the situation tell Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. There could potentially be one or more unknown candidates also in the finalist stage of the Jays’ search, though Heyman’s sources would “be surprised if anyone besides Atkins or LaCava” gets the job. Team president/CEO Mark Shapiro reportedly hopes to have someone hired prior to next week’s Winter Meetings.
Both Atkins and LaCava have ties to Shapiro from his long stint in Cleveland. Atkins has spent the last 15 years working for the Tribe’s front office while LaCava briefly worked as a cross-checker for the Indians in 2002 before moving on to the Blue Jays. As Heyman notes, it has been assumed that Shapiro will have the final say on baseball operations matters.
LaCava’s long tenure with Toronto (including a role as assistant GM since 2007) made him the logical choice to slide into the interim role after Alex Anthopoulos surprisingly declined to re-sign with the team. He’s already been busy in his short stint, as the Jays have re-signed Marco Estrada, signed J.A. Happ and traded for Jesse Chavez in an effort to bolster their starting rotation. Whether LaCava gets the full-time job or not, he’ll be remaining with the team in some capacity as he signed a long-term extension a few weeks ago.
Both LaCava and Atkins would be first-time general managers, though each has been linked to GM openings in the past — in fact, both interviewed for the Angels job this winter before Billy Eppler was hired for the job. Atkins also interviewed with the Phillies about their GM position in mid-October. LaCava interviewed with the Pirates and Orioles prior to those club’s respective hirings of Neal Huntington and Dan Duquette, and LaCava reportedly turned down Baltimore’s offer to remain in Toronto.
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post
Blue Jays Notes: Rotation, Bullpen, Price
The Blue Jays have committed about $130MM to their 2016 roster, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. The club has signed three mid-rotation starters to go with three already signed options. GM Tony LaCava will continue to search for pitching, both starters and relievers. Per LaCava, “we do think the offence is one of the best in the game, so we’re not really interested in looking too much at improving that.” Toronto led baseball with 891 runs scored – 127 more runs than the second place Yankees. And the lineup as currently constructed is arguably stronger than before.
Here’s more from north of the border:
- The recent additions of Marco Estrada, Jesse Chavez, and J.A. Happ ensure the Blue Jays can avoid spending for elite pitchers like David Price and Zack Greinke, per Nicholson-Smith. Last winter, the Royals replaced staff ace James Shields with Chris Young, Edinson Volquez, and Kris Medlen. They also inked unappreciated bullpen stalwarts Ryan Madson and Franklin Morales. Toronto now needs to find some bullpen reinforcements, especially since they dealt away one of their best relievers, Liam Hendriks, to acquire Chavez.
- Re-signing Price “was always a pipe dream,” writes John Lott of the National Post. Lott notes that many in the fanbase are frustrated with the acquisition of innings-eaters over an ace, but former GM Alex Anthopoulos wouldn’t have found money for Price either. Their three new starters combined for 85 starts last season, a volume that will help the offense continue to carry the team.
Quick Hits: Free Agents, Blue Jays, Hendriks
This year’s offseason has moved much more slowly than last year’s did, possibly suggesting that teams are becoming more cautious in free agency, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman suggests. There are other possible explanations, he notes, including that the strong free agent market has teams concerned about jumping to sign one free agent only to find a similar player willing to sign for less at a later date. Another possibility is that many teams’ new presidents of baseball operations are pulling back on the reins a bit. But there’s also the fact that many deals that were consummated by this point last year — including big contracts for Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Michael Cuddyer and Adam LaRoche — now look like potential busts. Here are more quick notes from around the game.
- After their signing of J.A. Happ (as well as their re-signing of Marco Estrada and trade for Jesse Chavez), the Blue Jays will continue pursuing starting pitching, interim GM Tony LaCava says, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter links). LaCava declined to comment on free agent starter David Price.
- Former Blue Jay Liam Hendriks, who headed to the Athletics for Chavez, says he anticipates a bigger role in Oakland, Jeff Simmons of Sportsnet notes. “I think it’ll be a good stepping stone to become a set-up, closer type and as a reliever that’s where you want to be,” Hendriks said last week on Sportsnet 590 The Fan. “With (Roberto) Osuna, (Aaron) Sanchez and (Brett) Cecil it would’ve been tough to get there with Toronto because they got three guys that can do both of those roles.” Hendriks, incidentally, says better health was one reason he improved in Toronto, blossoming from the struggling starter he was in Minnesota to a top-notch reliever. (He also credits Jays catchers Russell Martin and Dioner Navarro.) “I was never unhealthy per se. But I ate a bit cleaner and stopped drinking,” he says. “I never drank too much to begin with but I stopped completely… I did a lot my lower-body and shoulders work in the gym. Everything played a part.”
AL East Notes: Price, Happ, Davis, Maeda
The Blue Jays‘ signing of lefty J.A. Happ strongly suggests that David Price won’t be returning to Toronto next year, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports writes. Price’s acquisition was emblematic of the go-for-broke approach former GM Alex Anthopoulos took, and it isn’t like new team president Mark Shapiro to make similarly dramatic, risky moves. Instead, Shapiro and interim GM Tony LaCava have addressed the Jays’ rotation needs more quietly, with the signing of Happ, the re-signing of Marco Estrada and their trade for Jesse Chavez. “We obviously had multiple holes to fill in our pitching staff, and our front-office team felt diversifying the risk among multiple pitchers who could start was important, both due to our need at the (big-league) level and our lack of Triple-A depth starting pitchers,” Shapiro says. Here’s more from the AL East.
- Happ wasn’t the same pitcher he was in Pittsburgh as he had been previously, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca writes. He allowed fewer walks, his velocity increased, and he leaned harder on his fastball, leading to a brilliant 1.85 ERA in 11 starts. The Blue Jays, then, will have to see if the adjustments Happ made in Pittsburgh can continue to help him.
- No one involved with sports negotiations likes the phrase “hometown discount,” but if Chris Davis is to return to the Orioles, he’ll have to give them that discount, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes. The Orioles believe they can make Davis a competitive offer, just not one quite as large as he might be able to get elsewhere. They can hope that such a competitive offer might be enough to lure Davis, a beloved player in Baltimore and a good fit at Camden Yards, to return. Davis’ agent Scott Boras might have something to say about that, of course, but as Connolly notes, the choice will ultimately be Davis’.
- Japanese righty Kenta Maeda could be one possibility for the Red Sox this offseason, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. Maeda recently asked his NPB team, the Hiroshima Carp, to post him. With the Tigers, new Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski wasn’t usually a top bidder for the best talents from abroad. The Sox, however, have signed top foreign players like Yoan Moncada, Rusney Castillo and Daisuke Matsuzaka, so perhaps they’ll be contenders for Maeda as well. Maeda could represent a lower-priced alternative to top free agents like Price and Zack Greinke.
Blue Jays Sign J.A. Happ
7:48pm: Happ will receive $10MM in 2016 and $13MM apiece for the next two years of the deal, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter.
6:46pm: The Blue Jays have announced the signing of lefty J.A. Happ to a three-year, $36MM contract. Happ, 33, is represented by Dave Rogers.
With the signing, Toronto has brought back a pitcher who spent about two-and-a-half seasons with the club before he was traded away last winter. (That swap returned outfielder Michael Saunders.) During his first 291 frames with the Jays, from 2012 through 2014, Happ worked to a 4.39 ERA with 7.9 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9.
Things did not go terribly well for the veteran at the start of 2015. In his twenty-one outings with the Mariners, Happ posted a 4.64 ERA and carried a 6.8 strikeout-per-nine rate that fell below his career average.
But that all changed when the Pirates added Happ in one of the least-discussed moves of the trade deadline. In his final 63 1/3 innings of the season, the southpaw allowed just 13 earned runs, three home runs, and 13 walks while striking out 69 opposing hitters.
While the Blue Jays obviously won’t be expecting Happ to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA rate, it’s fair to wonder whether to what extent that mid-season turnaround will stick. Happ did not seem to benefit from a leap in velocity or major change in his offerings. Instead, the most obvious apparent differences before and after the trade were that he began relying much more heavily on his fastball, threw slightly more strikes, and lucked into somewhat more favorable matchups, as Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs explained late in the season. Happ hasn’t had any significant arm issues since 2010, and has mostly been healthy except for freak injuries, but he has never thrown more innings than the 172 he totaled last year.
Happ joins Marco Estrada (re-signed before the qualifying offer decision deadline) and Jesse Chavez (acquired via trade) as key pitching additions. President Mark Shapiro, interim GM Tony LaCava, and their staff seem to have preferred shorter-term commitments to veteran arms. Toronto obviously chose its targets and moved swiftly, as those represent three of the most significant moves of the still-early offseason.
It remains to be seen precisely how the Jays staff will be put together. Marcus Stroman and R.A. Dickey seem locks, along with Estrada and now Happ. It certainly seemed that Chavez would also take a rotation spot, given that the club parted with a cheaper, more controllable reliever in Liam Hendriks to add him. Drew Hutchison remains an option despite a rough 2015, as do youngsters Roberto Osuna and Aaron Sanchez — both of whom were quality late-inning pen arms last year.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Happ would land a three year deal, but saw him as more likely to land a $10MM annual guarantee. By signing early, though, Happ was able to maximize his price — aided, no doubt, by the fact that many other quality, mid-range starters came with lengthier contract requests and/or the need to sacrifice a draft pick.
Happ becomes the highest-rated player on that top fifty list (30th) to sign. It certainly bodes well for the rest of the pitching market that he was able to secure such a healthy deal. Hurlers such as Hisashi Iwakuma, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy, and Yovani Gallardo will all surely point to that contract as a floor.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
AL East Notes: Price, Blue Jays, Masterson
The stars are aligning for the Red Sox to sign top free agent David Price, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes. Price, he says, “is the guy they want,” with the club seemingly prepared to top $200MM to get a deal done. We’ve heard previously that rival executives expect Boston to top the market for Price. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will be under pressure not only to get a deal done, says Abraham, but to do so before the organization begins hawking tickets on December 12th (just after the conclusion of the Winter Meetings).
Here’s more from the AL East:
- The Blue Jays‘ signing of J.A. Happ not only takes them out of the market for Price — as unlikely as that match was — but represents a departure for the club, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. It had been nearly a decade since Toronto gave multiple years to a free agent starter, but under new club president Mark Shapiro the team has already committed both to Happ and Marco Estrada this winter. As Davidi notes, the two contracts are hardly monumental risks in the broader league-wide spending context.
- While average annual values of over $10MM are now unsurprising even for back-of-the-rotation free agent arms, Davidi goes on to explain that those commitments still have a significant impact on the payroll. He estimates that the club is already looking at around $135MM in Opening Day payroll — assuming it tenders contracts to the team’s ten arbitration-eligible players. Toronto would likely not have much added space to work with, then, unless some trimming is performed.
- Meanwhile, Shapiro and the Blue Jays have apparently begun interviewing candidates for the team’s full-time GM position. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter that Royals assistant GM Rene Francisco has interviewed for the position, which is being filled by Tony LaCava on an interim basis.
- Recent Red Sox righty Justin Masterson is expected to be at full strength this spring after his shoulder cleanup procedure, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. The 30-year-old has struggled badly over the last two years, but he’s had enough success previously that plenty of clubs will be glad to give him a chance at a resurrection.
Extension Candidate: Jose Bautista
In the wake of Jose Bautista‘s breakout 2010 season, the Blue Jays signed the right fielder to a five-year, $65MM extension that covered his final year of arbitration eligibility and first four free agent seasons. (It also included a $14MM club option on the 2016 campaign.) This extension generated quite a bit of controversy at the time. An MLBTR poll revealed that over 72 percent of readers polled felt the deal was unwarranted, and several pundits felt the Jays should’ve sold high on Bautista rather than gamble that his out-of-nowhere slugging prowess wouldn’t just as suddenly disappear.
Instead, that extension turned out to be one of Alex Anthopoulos’ canniest moves as Toronto’s general manager. Bautista has averaged a .933 OPS over the last five seasons, and he leads all players with 173 home runs over that same span. Needless to say, that $65MM deal has turned into one of the largest bargains in the sport, and the club’s decision to pick up Bautista’s $14MM option for the coming season was the easiest of no-brainers.
With this track record under his belt (and in the wake of a certain instantly-iconic postseason blast), Bautista has a lot of negotiating power on his side if the Jays want to negotiate an extension this offseason. That being said, there are a large number of factors to consider in this particularly interesting extension case, as if Bautista and the Jays were to reach a new deal, it would very likely set a new contractual precedent.
Bautista is still hitting at an elite level as he enters his age-35 season, and thus he doesn’t really have any comparables among past players with at least 6 years of service time who signed multi-year extensions. Looking at veteran sluggers who have signed big free agent deals in recent years, Bautista has out-performed the likes of Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz or Carlos Beltran and also lacks major baggage like Cruz’s PED suspension history or the torn ACL that cost Martinez his entire 2012 season. Since V-Mart was limited to DH-only duty and still received a $17MM average annual value, Bautista and agent Jay Alou can certainly make the case that Bautista’s superior hitting numbers and added defensive value deserves a $20MM+ AAV.
It may sound like a big salary for a player in his mid-30’s, yet power is a valuable commodity. Tim Dierkes predicts that five of this winter’s free agents (Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon) will all find deals with an AAV north of $20MM per season; add Bautista to that group, and he and Davis topped them all by each posting a 147 wRC+ in 2015. There’s enough interest in Ben Zobrist that he could also conceivably find a four-year deal entering his age-35 season, and while Zobrist far outpaces Bautista in defensive versatility, Bautista is also the far superior hitter. To sum up, if Bautista hit the open market this winter, he’d very likely find a four-year deal in the $80MM-$100MM range.
This is the price tag the Blue Jays will need to approach in order to extend their star. If they’re open to meeting this price, it might be a smart move to tear up Bautista’s 2016 contract and essentially start the extension next season by giving him a raise to at least $20MM and then three more $20MM+ seasons through 2019 (with possibly a vesting option for 2020). Starting a four-year extension in 2017 would mean the Jays are on the hook for a big salary in 2020 when Bautista would be entering his age-40 season. If I’m the Jays, I’d much rather pay Bautista a $20MM+ salary next year than I would for 2020 since the team is obviously much more confident that Bautista will still be a top run producer in the short term.
We’ve already looked at the pros of a Bautista deal, so now let’s focus on the cons. Despite Bautista’s consistency, guaranteeing big money to any slugger in his mid-30’s carries a lot of risk. Of the three veteran free agents I cited earlier, Martinez and Beltran both struggled through injury-plagued down years in the first seasons of their latest contracts. Bautista’s 2012 and 2013 seasons were both shortened by injuries — a bad wrist that required surgery after the 2012 campaign and a bruised hip that led the Jays to shut Bautista down in late 2013.
He also played through a shoulder injury for much of 2015 that didn’t much affect his hitting, though it weakened his usually-strong throwing arm and may have contributed to his subpar defensive metrics (-3 Defensive Runs Saved, -12.5 UZR/150). Bautista’s defensive numbers in right field have fluctuated over the years, though it also wouldn’t be a surprise if his 2015 stats are the first sign of a permanent downswing.
So if the Blue Jays were to extend Bautista, it would be under the assumption that he might only be a couple of seasons away from permanent first base/DH duty. It’s this scenario that poses the biggest question mark to a Bautista extension, as the Jays already have Edwin Encarnacion as a full-time 1B/DH. Encarnacion is also eligible for free agency after the 2016 season, is 26 months younger than Bautista and he’s posted slightly better numbers in some notable stat categories since the start of the 2012 season.
Bautista: 2266 PA, 130 HRs, 355 runs, .261/.377/.522, .387 wOBA, 146 wRC+, 18 fWAR
Encarnacion: 2431 PA, 151 HRs, 352 runs, .274/.371/.549, .391 wOBA, 149 wRC+, 16.3 fWAR
In Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto already has two major salaries on the books for the next four and five years, respectively. Another big long-term commitment will be added if the club extends Josh Donaldson. It’s hard to see the Blue Jays committing over $40MM per season in additional salary through the rest of the 2010’s to two more players, especially two players in their mid-30’s who would be locked into the first base and DH spots.
Unless Bautista or Encarnacion could somehow be talked into another team-friendly deal, the Jays may well have to choose which of the two franchise cornerstones they want to keep in the fold. Encarnacion is younger but Bautista is the better athlete of the two. In terms of pure dollars, Bautista’s age makes him slightly cheaper to extend since Encarnacion would likely push for another guaranteed season or two. Then again, if the Jays are willing to spend big money to retain a slugger, going with the younger option makes more sense if they feel all else is equal or if they feel Encarnacion will age better over the next few years.
Optics will also play a big role in a Bautista extension. The Blue Jays organization already took a PR hit with its revived fanbase this offseason given the awkward nature of Anthopoulos’ departure. It wouldn’t help public perception of new president/CEO Mark Shapiro or the Rogers Commnications ownership group if a new deal couldn’t be worked out with the face of the franchise. Bautista hasn’t been shy about expressing his opinions on the club’s business over the years, and one suspects he would speak up if he doesn’t feel the Jays are making a concerted effort to extend him.
From Bautista’s perspective, an extension would allow him to remain in a familiar spot, keep him playing for a contender if the Jays keep up their 2015 form and, in all likelihood, spend the rest of his career in Toronto. Given all of the factors that will go into Bautista’s extension case, it will fascinating to see if the two sides can reach a new deal or if Bautista will be tossing a bat while wearing another team’s uniform in 2017.
Photo courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports Images
Minor MLB Transactions: 11-25-15
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- The Rays released catcher J.P. Arencibia after recently designating him for assignment, per the team’s transactions page. Arencibia, 29, had an impressive 24-game run with Tampa Bay late in the season, but it wasn’t enough for the club to tender him a contract. He ought to get plenty of interest as a free agent from teams looking for major-league-capable receiving options.
- Mariners lefty Danny Hultzen cleared outright waivers, the club announced. Though his talent has always been evident, Hultzen’s shoulder has not been willing. Despite going second overall in the 2011 draft, Hultzen has yet to tally 200 professional innings pitched.
- Backstop Adrian Nieto tweets that he’s signed on with the Marlins. Nieto was a Rule 5 pick of the White Sox who stuck on the big league roster for all of 2014, but the switch-hitter didn’t hit much at the Double-A level last year and lost his roster spot in Chicago.
- The Orioles announced a host of minor league signings today. Among the notable names are righties Pedro Beato and Todd Redmond, lefty Cesar Cabral, and catcher Audry Perez. The 29-year-old Beato has 93 1/3 innings of MLB experience under his belt, while Redmond was a regular part of the Blue Jays’ pen from 2013-14 before losing his job last year. Cabral and Perez both have much more limited MLB experience. They each return to the Baltimore organization after spending most of 2015 at Triple-A Norfolk.
- The Blue Jays have signed lefty Scott Diamond to a minor league deal, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports. The 29-year-old will receive a big league camp invite after tossing 150 1/3 solid Triple-A frames last year in the Rays organization.
Cubs, Cards, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox Showing Most Interest In Price
The Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants and Red Sox are showing the most interest in left-hander David Price, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Rosenthal adds that while Price enjoyed his time in Toronto, the Blue Jays “are not expected to be a major factor in his free agency,” which isn’t necessarily a surprise considering the team’s previous reluctance to commit the type of expenditure Price will command to any player. Meanwhile, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported today that there’s a “high expectation” among executives involved in the Price bidding that the Red Sox will make the highest offer (links to Twitter). Tom Verducci also said in a recent MLB Network appearance that Boston will aggressively pursue Price.
Other clubs will naturally show interest in Price and presumably already have. However, the common belief that Price is capable of approaching or exceeding Max Scherzer‘s seven-year, $210MM contract from last offseason suggests that many teams will be priced out of serious consideration.
Each of the clubs listed by Rosenthal has a need in the rotation, though some to a greater extent than others. The Cardinals recently lost Lance Lynn to Tommy John surgery and saw several of their promising young arms slowed by injuries in 2015 (including Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales). The Dodgers could potentially lose Zack Greinke to free agency and don’t know what to expect from either Hyun-jin Ryu or Brandon McCarthy in 2016. The Giants’ rotation was highly unstable in 2015 behind ace Madison Bumgarner, and the Red Sox struggled through 2015 with one of the game’s worst performances from their rotation. The need for the Cubs is less glaring on paper, as Chicago ranked third in rotation ERA in 2015. However, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel wilted down the stretch, and adding another top-tier starter to pair with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the rotation would give Chicago a highly formidable postseason rotation.
Price is coming off a dominant season split between Detroit and Toronto in which he logged a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 40.4 ground-ball rate in 220 1/3 innings. Because he was ineligible for a qualifying offer due to this summer’s trade, Price won’t require a new club to forfeit a draft pick upon signing him.
Starting Pitching Notes: Lackey, Fernandez, Price, Chen
The Giants are among the clubs that are showing interest in right-hander John Lackey, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). San Francisco, though, is exploring a wide swath of starting pitching options, per Rosenthal, so it only makes sense that Lackey would be among the pitchers to pique the team’s interest. The 37-year-old Lackey has been a popular name on the free-agent market thus far, having reportedly been connected to the Marlins, Cardinals, Cubs, D-Backs, Rangers, Red Sox and Dodgers thus far. Over the weekend, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo listed the Giants and Cubs as the two teams with the best shot to sign Lackey.
Here’s more on the market for rotation arms…
- Executives from teams searching for high-end starting pitching tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that Jose Fernandez isn’t available in trades at this time. Sherman spoke with Fernandez’s agent, Scott Boras, about the reported tension between him and the Marlins‘ front office. Boras tells Sherman that he spoke with Miami president of baseball operations Michael Hill the day after the initial negative reports surfaced, with Hill telling him that he looked forward to Fernandez fronting the team’s rotation in 2016.
- In an appearance on TSN 1050 in Canada (audio link), ESPN’s Keith Law discusses David Price with hosts Derek Taylor and Kara Wagland, noting that there’s no reason to believe he would accept anything less than full market value to return to the Blue Jays. Law adds that he’s never felt a reunion between the two sides is likely, pointing out that the MLBPA encourages the top names on the market to take every dollar possible to drive up the price for the second tier of free agents and the following year’s class. The idea of Price returning to Toronto has seemed like a long shot, at best, since he was acquired, given the team’s mid-sized payroll and previous lack of lengthy commitments. Law’s colleague, Buster Olney, wrote recently in his ESPN Insider daily blog post that some evaluators involved in discussions with Price’s camp believe that Price is indicating to all clubs that he’d like to play for them.
- FOX’s Jon Paul Morosi wonders if left-hander Wei-Yin Chen could potentially pull down an annual value of $20MM on his upcoming contract. While that number seems like a stretch, Morosi points out that agents will likely be citing Rick Porcello‘s $20.625MM annual value in contract negotiations this winter. A team paying $20MM+ annually for Chen seems like a stretch to me, but Morosi’s general point about Porcello serving as a reference is interesting; we’ll find out this offseason whether that contract looks like an outlier or one that served to drive up the price for second-tier starting pitchers. Porcello’s name has come up in conversations I’ve had with industry contacts this winter, though only time will tell if his contract does indeed serve to advance the secondary pitching market.
- In a piece for Sports On Earth, MLB.com’s A.J. Cassavell tries to peg Zack Greinke‘s free-agent value based on historical comparisons. Cassavell looks at age-based comps in an attempt to gauge how long Greinke will remain effective and the length of contract he’ll ultimately command. Cassavell projects that Greinke can be realistically relied upon for three more high-quality seasons before beginning to regress to above-average (but no longer elite) results, ultimately coming to the conclusion of a six-year, $153MM contract prediction.