Cafardo On Buchholz, Samardzija, Cueto, Hamels
In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe pit Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts against Tigers shorstop Jose Iglesias. Of course, Boston once had both, but Iglesias was shipped out in 2013 in a three-team deal that brought Jake Peavy to Fenway. Bogaerts offers more potential as a hitter, but Iglesias clearly has the superior glove. That difference in the field never made Bogaerts doubt himself, however.
“No, that’s just a guy who’s really gifted beyond anyone else,” Bogaerts said. “I just paid attention to trying to get better. I never compared myself to him because you can’t compare anyone to him. He’s a great defensive player and flashy.”
More from today’s column..
- The same teams that are pursuing Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz are going after White Sox hurler Jeff Samardzija. That list of teams includes the Royals, Tigers, Twins, Blue Jays, Yankees, Cardinals, Orioles, Angels, and Dodgers, according to Cafardo. Late last week, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the Astros are also interested in Samardzija. Meanwhile, at this time, the Red Sox reportedly are not interested in moving Buchholz.
- The Astros are a team to watch in July as they could get very aggressive in their pursuit of a starter. Cafardo hears that the Astros have been evaluating Reds pitchers Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake quite a bit. Cole Hamels obviously stands as one of the biggest prizes out there, but Cafardo feels he likely wouldn’t sign off on a trade to Houston. Over the weekend, Hamels indicated that he would be “open-minded” to being traded to any team.
- Giants GM Bobby Evans told Cafardo that his club is out of the starting pitching market for now thanks to the upcoming returns of Matt Cain and Jake Peavy.
- The Phillies would like to sell off their pieces little by little rather than make a ton of deals right at the deadline. However, Cafardo hears that teams aren’t coming to the table with actual offers yet, leaving the Phillies frustrated.
- Baseball execs who spoke with Cafardo say the Mets are still the best match for Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. A package for Tulo could start with left-hander Steven Matz, who makes his big league debut today.
- Even at his advanced age, one NL evaluator feels that Phillies veteran Carlos Ruiz is still “a better option than “more than 50 percent of the catchers in the league.”
- Some teams are concerned with Hamels’ poor performance in interleague play while others see it just as a fluky thing. Hamels has a career 4.73 ERA across 31 interleague starts.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Padres, Niese, Cubs, Jays
Here’s the latest from Ken Rosenthal, via a video at FOX Sports:
- At 36-40, the Padres have considered buying as well as selling at the trade deadline. They could pursue a shortstop and left-handed hitter if they buy. If they sell, they could consider dealing Justin Upton, James Shields and Craig Kimbrel. Upton is the only one of the three who’s eligible for free agency after the season, though, and the Padres might not want to tear down entirely, since they’re hosting the All-Star Game next year.
- The Cubs have considered dealing for Mets left-hander Jon Niese, although they might also aim higher. The salary remaining on Niese’s current deal (he’ll make $9MM next year, plus a $500K buyout or $10MM option in 2016) might also be a slight obstacle to trading him.
- The Blue Jays are interested in pitching, but also perhaps in outfield help. Acquiring an outfielder would help the Jays to keep top young player Dalton Pompey in the minors — he’s currently hitting very well for Double-A New Hampshire after struggling in both the big leagues and in Triple-A this year.
- Former Padres manager Bud Black could be a possibility for the Braves if they eventually decide to replace Fredi Gonzalez. Black worked for the Indians front office when current Braves GM John Hart was in Cleveland, and Braves president John Schuerholz traded for Black all the way back in 1982, when Schuerholz was GM of the Royals.
Johan Santana Ends 2015 Comeback Bid
Two-time American League Cy Young winner Johan Santana has ended his bid for a comeback this season, reports ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin. The longtime Twins and Mets hurler will again attempt a comeback in the 2016 season, Rubin adds.
The 36-year-old Santana signed a minor league contract with the Blue Jays this offseason in hopes of returning to a Major League mound for the first time since the 2012 season. Santana was recovering from an Achilles injury that cut short his 2014 comeback attempt, and lately he’s been slowed by an infection in his toe. Because of that, he felt he would not have sufficient time to ramp up and get into Major League shape by the time the issue had healed.
A pair of major shoulder surgeries has significantly shortened the career of Santana, who was unquestionably one of the most dominant — and arguably the most dominant — pitchers in the game for a period of time in the mid-2000s. From 2004-10, Santana posted a 2.87 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9, averaging 216 innings per season. His ERA+ over that stretch was a remarkable 151, indicating that he was 51 percent better than the league-average pitcher in that stretch. Santana totaled three straight seasons worth seven or more wins above replacement and, in the estimation of many, should have won three consecutive Cy Young Awards. (He won in ’04 and ’06, but Bartolo Colon took home first-place honors in ’05, largely on the strength of his 21 wins, as Santana was superior in most other categories.)
Phil Coke Declines Optional Assignment, Elects Free Agency
Lefty Phil Coke has declined an optional assignment with the Blue Jays, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca tweets. As was his right given his 6+ years of service, Coke has elected free agency.
Coke, 32, had allowed just one earned run in 2 2/3 innings in Toronto, striking out three but walking two. Combined with his stint with the Cubs earlier in the year, he owns a 5.68 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 on the year.
Though he’s continued to bounce around, Coke figures to have another big league shot in relatively short order. His velocity is down a tick from last year, but he still brings 92 to 93 mph heat from the left side and has fairly promising peripherals. SIERA values his contributions this year at a 3.15 earned run equivalency, while FIP likewise shows him at a promising 3.39 mark.
AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Masterson, Santos
Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (audio link) that he’s zeroing in on fixing the starting five before addressing the relief situation. “That’s probably more our priority,” Anthopoulos said. “We could use both, but if I did have to prioritize it I’d say rotation first, bullpen would be next.” Pitcher Aaron Sanchez is expected to join the rotation upon returning from a lat strain, but the GM went on to say that he wouldn’t rule out using Sanchez in the bullpen if he were able to acquire two superior starters via trade. Here’s more out of the AL East..
- It doesn’t sound like we should expect the Blue Jays to pull off any deals anytime soon. “Very few teams are willing to do anything early…Really we might be the only one willing to do anything now,” Anthopoulos said (via SiriusXM on Twitter).
- Red Sox hurler Justin Masterson won’t specifically say that he’ll ask for a trade, but he did acknowledge the possibility, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. “I dont know if it’s in my nature to do that, to say, ‘Beat it guys, trade me or put me in [the rotation],’” he said. “No, I don’t think that’s the time right now. Especially the way I see this team going and the way I believe in this team too.” Masterson, who is signed to a one-year, $9.5MM deal, could conceivably draw interest from a team in need of a starter. For his part, Masterson would much rather start than pitch in relief.
- The Yankees announced that reliever Sergio Santos will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery, as Grace Raynor of MLB.com writes. Santos made two appearances with the Yankees after signing a minor league pact earlier this month. Over parts of six MLB seasons, Santos owns a career 3.98 ERA with 11.2 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9.
- Yankees manager Joe Girardi suspects that Ivan Nova‘s next start will be in the big leagues, Ryan Hatch of The Star-Ledger writes. Nova last pitched in the majors in April 2014 and underwent surgery on his elbow shortly afterward.
- Tim Britton of The Providence Journal looked at why the Red Sox have been underperforming their projections despite an active offseason.
Cafardo On Sale, Ramirez, Uehara, Papelbon
In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests ten steps to help fix the Red Sox. The first item on the list is one that has been discussed quite a bit – Boston’s need for a true ace in the rotation. Beyond that, Cafardo would like to see the Sox trade Clay Buchholz, focus on acquiring players who can thrive in their environment, and hire an executive to oversee and question the moves of GM Ben Cherington. Here’s a look at some of the highlights from Cafardo’s Sunday offering..
- White Sox left-hander Chris Sale is on a strikeout tear and teams would surely like to add him this summer. However, team sources tell Cafardo that Sale is not available. Even though the White Sox are in last place, they see him as the cornerstone of their franchise. Sale, 26, has a 2.74 ERA with 12.1 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 through 13 starts this season.
- There have been conflicting reports on the subject, but Cafardo hears that the Mets have made inquiries on Brewers third baseman Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez, who turns 37 this week, has hit just .220/.256/.405 in 211 plate appearances this season. However, some feel that a move to a contending club could get him back on track. Cafardo also writes that it wouldn’t be surprising if the Giants or Padres got in the mix on the veteran.
- Teams are watching Red Sox closer Koji Uehara and monitoring him to make sure that he’s free of serious injury concerns. At the same time, his $9MM salary for next season is a deterrent for rival teams. “There’s always going to be a holding of your breath to commit to him, but he’s still very good. Boston would have to pick up some of the salary. But I think teams will definitely inquire and make a push for him,” one AL evaluator told Cafardo.
- Jonathan Papelbon would seem to be a great fit for the the Blue Jays, but money continues to be an issue for Toronto. The Phillies could probably assume a lot of Papelbon’s deal for this year and some of the $13MM vesting option for 2016, but the sense is that Toronto wants to go even cheaper. Also, they don’t want to give up youngster Daniel Norris to find their late-inning solution.
Quick Hits: International Spending, Giants, Cubans
Remember when the Padres, Red Sox, and White Sox were the most improved teams in the majors? They, along with the Marlins, are below .500 despite their busy offseasons, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. Alternatively, the Blue Jays have pushed into playoff contention with a recent winning streak. Toronto added Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin over the offseason, but the core of the team has remained largely intact. Kepner notes that these quick turnaround rebuilds are no guarantee for solid performance.
Here’s more from around the league:
- A new international signing period will begin on July 2nd, but 2016 is the time for your favorite team to break the bank, per Ben Badler of Baseball America. The Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Angels, and Diamondbacks are already unable to spend more than $300K on a player for the next two seasons. The Dodgers, Cubs, Royals, Phillies, and Blue Jays may blow past their bonus limit in the 2015 signing period. That will remove many of the most active teams from the market in 2016. Badler gives a complete description of the international market conditions. It’s well worth a read.
- The Giants will soon face a roster crunch in their rotation, writes Chris Haft of MLB.com. Jake Peavy is medically ready to return, and Matt Cain is nearing readiness. The easiest move would be to option Chris Heston, but he’s tied for the club lead with seven wins and recently no-hit the Mets. Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Hudson have been merely serviceable. The same can be said of Tim Lincecum in recent weeks. With the exception of Heston, the other rotation arms could be lost if they’re designated for assignment. The club could opt to move Lincecum and Vogelsong into the bullpen, but that just pushes the roster crunch elsewhere.
- An influx of Cuban players could soon flood the majors, writes Bill Shaiken of the Los Angeles Times. Cuban players, even those who fall under international spending restrictions, are currently able to negotiate with all 30 clubs. That increases their bargaining power. It’s a big reason why infielder Roberto Baldoquin cost about four times more than the Angels’ entire 2015 amateur draft class. Cubans are currently the third most represented foreign nation in the majors. Opening day rosters included 18 Cubans, 65 Venezuelans, and 83 Dominicans. Cuba has a comparable population to the Dominican Republic. As such, we could see a surge of Cuban players as diplomatic relations continue to thaw.
Blue Jays Interested In Francisco Rodriguez
The Blue Jays have contacted the Brewers about closer Francisco Rodriguez, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reports. The Jays are also seeking a starter.
That the Jays would have interest in Rodriguez is no surprise. With the Brewers off to a 25-44 start, K-Rod seems likely to be on the market this summer, and the Blue Jays have been connected to other top relievers, like Jonathan Papelbon and Tyler Clippard.
Rodriguez is in the midst of a strong season in which he’s posted a 1.13 ERA, 9.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. His peripherals don’t quite support such an outstanding ERA, but he remains one of the game’s more reliable closers, and he could surely bolster the Jays’ bullpen, which is currently headed by Brett Cecil, Roberto Osuna, Liam Hendriks, Aaron Loup and Steve Delabar. Rodriguez makes $3.5MM this season and will receive $7.5MM ($2MM of which will be deferred) next season, with a $6MM option or $2MM buyout for 2017.
Many Clubs Scouting Jonathan Papelbon
There was a “heavy” scouting presence in attendance for Jonathan Papelbon‘s most recent appearance, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Both the Blue Jays and Cubs are known to have interest in the closer, but Rosenthal now adds that additional clubs have inquired on the reliever.
Meanwhile, Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com writes that the Jays have had a high-ranking scout trail Papelbon for his past 10 contests. He’s only had one save opportunity in that time, though he has pitched in non-save situations. Per Salisbury, determining how much money would need to head to the Blue Jays has been a “significant” hurdle in talks thus far.
Papelbon has pitched well all season and has continued to put up rather excellent results since experiencing a significant velocity drop beginning in 2013. Rosenthal notes that he averaged 94.1 mph in his most recent outing, but he only threw nine pitches, so it’s not necessarily an indicator that his velocity has returned for good. Indeed, a look at Papelbon’s game-to-game velocity charts (via Fangraphs) reveals that the most recent appearance is something of an outlier.
PITCHf/x data shows that Papelbon has upped the usage of his slider in 2015, which may explain the increase in both his swinging-strike rate and his K/9 rate. At 34 years old, it’s unlikely that Papelbon will see a dramatic resurgence in the velocity department, but he’s still managed to post a pristine 1.01 ERA with 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a career-best 51.5 percent ground-ball rate in 26 1/3 innings this year.
The remaining $7.67MM on his contract is an obstacle, to be sure, as is the $13MM option for 2016 that seems likely to vest. But, at roughly $20.5MM over the coming nine-and-a-half months of regular season games (to say nothing of potential postseason innings), Papelbon’s really not the overpriced asset that he’s often portrayed to be. Depending on the extent to which the Phillies are willing to subsidize an acquiring team, Papelbon could ultimately be looked upon as a below-market asset relative to his production.
Podcast: Selling Big Pieces?
Steve Adams joins the show to discuss the growing departure from traditional “buyers” and “sellers,” the Braves’ expedited rebuild process and the possibility of teams cashing in their biggest assets for younger, more controllable talent. Jeff then takes a closer look at one such hypothetical: the Reds and Aroldis Chapman.
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