Twins Sign Lance Lynn
The Twins have continued their aggressive, late foray into the free-agent market, announcing on Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Lance Lynn to a one-year contract. He’ll earn $12MM, per the team, confirming previous reports on his salary. The deal reportedly allows Lynn to earn another $2MM worth of incentives — half each upon reaching 170 and 180 innings. Lynn, a client of Excel Sports Management, will get right going with the Twins and start their Grapefruit League Game against the Orioles tomorrow, per the team’s announcement.
The pact makes Lynn the latest victim of a slow-moving offseason in which a number of high-profile players have been forced to settle for one-year deals that look diminutive in comparison to those they were expected to receive. At the outset of the offseason, we ranked Lynn ninth on our list of the top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d receive $56MM over four years. More recently, our player profile for the righty suggested he could even achieve a $60MM deal. Obviously, the (relatively) meager $12MM guarantee from the Twins falls significantly short of those expectations. He’ll instead join Mike Moustakas, Logan Morrison, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gonzalez as players who were widely expected to merit hefty multi-year pacts but will ultimately be guaranteed less money than reliever Juan Nicasio.
As for the Twins, the deal comes as the latest move of an incredibly busy (and cost-efficient) offseason during which the club has managed to patch its rotation quite nicely. After missing out on Yu Darvish, to whom the club reportedly offered a nine-figure contract that would’ve shattered the club record, the Twins traded a low-profile prospect for Jake Odorizzi and have now gotten an incredible bargain on Lynn. Minnesota also managed to bring Morrison to Minnesota on just a $6.5MM deal with incentives and a vesting option. Though Lynn and Morrison were widely expected to command in the vicinity of $100MM in combined guarantees, the Twins will promise them a total of just $18.5MM. The club has also shored up their bullpen this winter by signing Addison Reed, Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney.
Lynn will join Odorizzi as a newcomer in the rotation, which will also eventually feature three holdovers in the form of Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson. Santana, however, will be out for as much as the first month of the season after undergoing surgery in February to repair an injury in his right middle finger. The increased number of off-days early in the season could cause the Twins to largely get by without a fifth starter in that time, though lefty Adalberto Mejia and veteran Phil Hughes (returning from his second thoracic outlet surgery) are among the on-hand options should a fifth starter be needed. The addition of Lynn likely pushes Tyler Duffey back to the bullpen and further lessens the organization’s need to rush top prospects Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves to the Majors.
[RELATED: Updated Minnesota Twins Depth Chart/Updated Minnesota Twins Payroll]
The 30-year-old rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals at the outset of the offseason, so the Twins will be forced to forfeit a 2018 draft pick after signing him. But because the Twins were revenue-sharing recipients in 2017 and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, that pick will be just their fourth-highest of the draft (number 95 overall). They’d normally be required to surrender their third-highest pick, but for Minnesota that’s a protected selection in Competitive Round B. For Lynn’s part, he’ll no longer be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next year thanks to a provision in the new CBA.
Lynn’s spent his entire career thus far with the Cardinals, who selected him with a supplemental first round pick in 2008. He reached the majors for the first time in 2011, and pitched his first full season in the majors the following year. From that point, he chucked 752 2/3 innings for the Redbirds (to the tune of a 3.39 ERA) across four seasons before tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2015. After returning to the mound to kick off the 2017 campaign, the righty made 33 starts and posted a 3.43 ERA.
Although it seems on the surface that he picked up right where he left off, pre- and post-Tommy John surgery Lynn don’t look like the exact same pitcher. While he boasted a career K/9 of 8.67 prior to going under the knife, his 2017 mark was a meager 7.39. Likewise, his 4.75 xFIP last season was almost exactly a full run higher than the 3.74 figure he owned prior to 2016. His control wasn’t quite as good either, as evidenced by a 3.77 BB/9 mark in 2017. His pre-Tommy John mark was just 3.35. These statistical red flags, along with a 0.6 MPH drop on his average fastball, may have been part of the reason teams were wary of giving him a long-term pact. Still, he’s at least got durability going for him; outside of 2016 he’s thrown at least 175 innings in each of his full major league seasons.
The Lynn deal seems to spell bad news for fellow right-hander Alex Cobb who remains on the free agent market. It’s tough to imagine that Cobb, who’s also one season removed from Tommy John surgery and owns similar career run-prevention numbers, will be able to substantially eclipse Lynn’s guarantee. With just under three weeks until Opening Day, it’ll be interesting to see what type of contract the top remaining free-agent starter can secure, especially in relation to his most statistically comparable open-market competitor.
FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported the two sides were close to a deal (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links). Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweeted details of the incentives.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers Release Mark Lowe
The Dodgers have released veteran right-hander Mark Lowe from his minor league contract, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Lowe had been in camp on a minor league pact, and despite some considerable struggles over the past two seasons, he still hopes to continue his pitching career and land with another organization, per Crasnick.
Lowe, 34, hasn’t appeared in the Majors since tossing 49 1/3 innings out of the Tigers’ bullpen. Detroit inked him to a two-year, $11MM contract in the 2015-16 offseason but received a negative return on that investment when Lowe limped to a 7.11 ERA a dozen homers allowed in those 49 1/3 frames. Notably, his fastball velocity was down from an average of 95.5 mph in 2015 to 92.4 mph in 2016. He was released by Detroit at the end of Spring Training in 2017.
After being cut loose in Detroit, Lowe latched on with the Mariners and reported to their Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma. While he enjoyed a career renaissance after signing a minor league deal with Seattle prior to the 2015 season, Lowe didn’t find the same change in fortune this time around. He struggled to a 6.23 ERA through 39 innings in Tacoma and didn’t fare any better after being flipped to the White Sox in a minor swap.
Lowe hasn’t found success on the mound since working to a pristine 1.96 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 in 55 innings between the Mariners and Blue Jays back in 2015. He’s a veteran of 11 big league seasons with a lifetime 4.22 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9 and a 39.8 percent ground-ball rate in 385 2/3 innings.
Athletics Sign Jonathan Lucroy
MONDAY: The A’s have announced the signing.
SATURDAY: Lucroy’s one-year deal with the A’s will guarantee him $6.5MM, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Slusser also adds that the deal does not come with any incentives.
FRIDAY: The Athletics have agreed to sign catcher Jonathan Lucroy, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee (via Twitter). It’s a one-year deal for the Excel client, according to the report.
Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Lucroy would command a two-year, $24MM commitment. We cited the A’s as a possible suitor, but at the time it seemed likelier that the 31-year-old would choose a team more clearly positioned to contend, given his own comments on the subject.
As was the case for others, of course, the free-agent market did not really develop as expected for the veteran backstop. The Rockies — who employed Lucroy for the second half of the 2017 season — had interest but pivoted to Chris Iannetta, who ended up being one of three catchers (joining Welington Castillo and Alex Avila) to secure two-year commitments.
Lucroy’s free-agent experience was long expected to be much more rewarding. When the 2016 season drew to a close, after all, he stood as one of the best all-around receivers in the game, having just wrapped up a five-year run of .291/.353/.465 hitting during which he was also reputed to be among the game’s best defensive catchers.
The 2017 season, though, did not go well at all. Lucroy got off to a disastrous start at the plate with the Rangers before a mid-season trade to the Rockies. While he rebounded with a robust .429 on-base percentage (with 27 walks against just 19 strikeouts) down the stretch, Lucroy’s power never returned and he finished with a .265/.345/.371 slash line and six home runs over 481 plate appearances on the year.
Optimists will point to the still-impeccable zone control and long history of productivity. Pessimists can handily cite the fact that Lucroy delivered little hard contact, lots of grounders, and a career-low full-season dinger tally in a 2017 season marked by a leaguewide offensive surge.
Defensive questions also arose. While the Rockies credited Lucroy’s work at managing the pitching staff, suggesting he retains his good reputation in that hard-to-quantify realm, there was surprising slippage in the framing department. Once lauded as the master of winning strikes for his pitchers, Lucroy graded miserably in that key metric in 2017.
Of course, we at MLBTR were still somewhat bullish on Lucroy’s market situation despite those areas of concern. Indeed, I argued for more than our collective prediction, writing in early October that he could command a three-year commitment with an annual salary of $10MM or more. In a market full of surprises, Lucroy’s shortfall is among the most eye-opening. While he surely could have commanded a larger payday had he signed earlier in the winter, with timing playing a role in the ultimate contract, it remains notable that such an accomplished player was forced to settle for such a commitment.
[RELATED: Updated Athletics Depth Chart]
For Oakland, it’s an eminently sensible risk to take. The club had said it expected to utilize Bruce Maxwell as the primary option, but he had a tough season at the plate in 2017 as well as a troubling offseason run-in with the law. While he undoubtedly remains part of the future plans, it could be that he’ll open the year in the minors with Josh Phegley supplementing Lucroy at the MLB level.
Even with Lucroy aboard, it’s tough to pick the A’s as a favorite in the AL West that’s led by an outstanding Astros club and is competitive from top top bottom. But if he can coax breakout performances from a youthful pitching staff, if not also rebound with the bat, then perhaps there could yet be a surprise in store.
Lee and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick previously reported a deal was close.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Minor MLB Transactions: 3/11/18
Sunday’s minor moves…
- The Rays have released left-hander Dan Runzler, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets. The 32-year-old Runzler joined the Rays last month on a minor league deal after spending 2017 with the Pittsburgh organization. Runzler threw four big league innings with the Pirates, which represented his first action in the majors since 2012. He was more of a factor at Triple-A, where he tossed 41 1/3 frames of 3.08 ERA/4.28 FIP ball. Runzler’s previous MLB experience consisted of 72 1/3 IP with the Giants from 2009-12.
Blue Jays Release Ezequiel Carrera
MARCH 11: The Blue Jays have now elected to release Carrera, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link).
MARCH 1: The Blue Jays announced that outfielder Ezequiel Carrera has been outrighted after clearing waivers. He had recently been designated for assignment but will now return to camp as a non-roster invitee. That’s the best possible result for Toronto, which had to expose Carrera to the waiver wire in order to add reliever Seung-hwan Oh.
It appears that Carrera has accepted his assignment, as he would have had the right to opt instead for free agency. The fact that the remainder of the league passed on claiming him isn’t promising, though that would’ve meant stepping into a $1.9MM arbitration salary.
It is not immediately clear whether Carrera is still playing pursuant to that arb agreement, or whether instead the team now controls him on alternative terms such that he’d earn at a different rate if he stays with the club into the start of the season. Regardless, the Jays will owe Carrera at least thirty days’ worth of termination pay (just over $300K).
The Jays are obviously fond of the 30-year-old, who has appeared in 332 games with the organization over the past three seasons. He has never been better than 2017, when he turned in a healthy .282/.356/.408 batting line in 325 trips to the plate while also adding eight homers and swiped ten bags.
Still, later developments in the offseason evidently led the club to go in a different direction. The signing of Curtis Granderson — the only other left-handed-hitting outfielder who seems likely to be in the mix in the early portion of the season — certainly didn’t help Carrera’s cause. And the acquisition of Randal Grichuk likely took away the possibility of a strict platoon scenario. With the switch-hitting Dalton Pompey and lefty-swinging Dwight Smith Jr. also in the mix, the Jays obviously felt they did not need to keep another southpaw bat on the 40-man roster.
Twins Release Anibal Sanchez
The Twins will release right-hander Anibal Sanchez, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune reports on Twitter. Sanchez’s 40-man roster spot will go to fellow righty Lance Lynn, whom the Twins added on a one-year, $12MM deal Saturday.
The Twins brought Sanchez aboard less than a month ago, signing him to a split contract that could have been worth $2.5MM had he made their roster. Minnesota then went on to acquire both Jake Odorizzi and Lynn, making Sanchez superfluous in the team’s opinion. The Twins will now have to pay Sanchez $417K in termination pay, which would have risen to $625K had they waited until Monday to cut him, Miller tweets.
While Sanchez has been a terrific starter for the majority of his career, which began in 2006 with the Marlins, the 34-year-old is clearly on the downside. Sanchez is coming off three straight subpar seasons with one of the Twins’ division rivals, the Tigers, and was hoping to reemerge as a viable starter in Minnesota.
Most recently, Sanchez tossed 105 1/3 big league innings in 2017, which he divided between the Tigers’ rotation and bullpen (28 appearances, 17 starts), and logged an ugly 6.41 ERA despite quality strikeout and walk rates (8.89 K/9, 2.48 BB/9). The Tigers then bought Sanchez out for $5MM in lieu of picking up his $16MM option for 2018.
Mariners Place Tony Zych On Release Waivers
The Mariners have placed Tony Zych on waivers for unconditional release, Greg Johns of MLB.com tweets. It was recently reported that the right-hander was undergoing tests for shoulder discomfort.
A 2011 early-round pick by the Cubs, Zych was famously traded to the Mariners for exactly $1. He always showed tremendous strikeout upside during his Mariners tenure. Across 32 innings during the 2015-2016 seasons, he owned an impressive 12.66 K/9. However, that fell to a much more average 7.75 K/9 last season in 40 2/3 innings.
That Zych has only managed 72 2/3 innings since being promoted in September of 2015 might speak more clearly to the reason for his release. The righty has struggled with shoulder and arm injuries throughout his career, and as such he’s had quite a bit of trouble staying on the field.
If Zych can regain his health, however, it’s not hard to see an MLB team bringing him into the fold. His strikeout upside and ground ball rate (just under 50% for his career) are both reasons to believe that the 27-year-old could contribute at the back end of a major league bullpen again.
Royals Re-Sign Mike Moustakas
FRIDAY: Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports tweets that Moustakas has passed his physical and is officially back with Kansas City.
THURSDAY: The Royals have struck a one-year deal with third baseman Mike Moustakas, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). Jon Heyman and Robert Murray of Fan Rag had reported earlier that the Scott Boras client was nearing a deal to return to Kansas City.
The contract will guarantee Moustakas just $6.5MM — far shy of expectations heading into the winter. That comes in the way of a $5.5MM salary for the coming season and a $1MM buyout of a $15MM mutual option for the 2019 campaign. Moustakas can also earn up to $2.2MM via incentives for the coming season, per Passan. The bonuses begin at 225 plate appearances and would be maxed out at an achievable 450, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star (Twitter links).
Clearly, Moustakas expected more when he turned down a $17.4MM qualifying offer from the Royals at the outset of the offseason. And for good reason: the 29-year-old was viewed by many as one of the best players on the open market. Indeed, MLBTR predicted the 29-year-old would secure an $85MM guarantee over a five-year term.
As things turned out, the market just never developed for Moustakas. Potential landing spots dried up throughout the winter as organizations signed other players, found cheaper alternatives, or decided largely not to add to their MLB rosters.
Meanwhile, the Royals spent much of their own offseason trimming costs and waiting to see if they could coax back Moustakas’s long-time corner infield mate, Eric Hosmer. That pursuit ended without a deal, seemingly leaving the Royals positioned to embark upon a full-blown rebuild.
Bucking the leaguewide trend, though, Kansas City has elected to dedicate some cash to put a quality product on the field in 2018. It may not be enough to make for a clear-cut contender, but the Royals have certainly added a lot of productivity in signing Lucas Duda, Jon Jay, and now Moustakas in short succession.
Better still, the team has improved its 2018 outlook quite a bit without tying its hands for the future. It still seems that a longer-term outlook will define the team’s approach, and it’s certainly possible that some of the new additions will end up being traded at some point in the coming season, but the Royals promise to be competitive for the coming season.
Signing Moustakas does come with a cost beyond the payroll hit. Since he returned to Kansas City after declining a qualifying offer, the organization will not add a compensatory draft choice that it would have if he had joined Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain in heading elsewhere. The Royals will still add two selections after the conventional first-round of the draft for those departures. As for Moustakas, he’ll re-enter the market next winter (assuming the mutual option is not exercised) without the hindrance of any draft compensation, though he’ll also face stiff competition in an anticipated market full of stars.
There’s plenty to digest about this signing, needless to say. Most broadly, it’s as clear a sign as any about the market’s valuation of power. As the ball flies out of the yard at record rates around the league, lofty dinger tallies just aren’t paying in free agency.
It was bad timing, then, for Moustakas, whose power stroke is his chief attribute. He launched a career-high 38 long balls in 2017 and finished with steadily above-average overall offensive production. Despite tepid output earlier in his career, Moustakas has been a .275/.329/.496 hitter over the past three seasons.
Of course, that’s something of the rosy version of his attributes as a hitter. Moustakas managed only a .314 OBP last year and carries an ugly .305 career mark. While he doesn’t strike out much, he also doesn’t draw many free passes; in 2017, he finished with a career-low 5.7% walk rate. And his 17.8% HR/FB rate from last year sits well above his career average of 10.6%. Any decline in that number could be problematic. Statcast suggests Moustakas was fortunate to fare as well as he did, crediting him with a .331 xwOBA that falls shy of the .355 wOBA he ended up posting.
Teams certainly may also have been a bit wary of Moustakas’s abilities in the field and on the bases. Fangraphs’ total baserunning statistic marks him as one of the league’s worst baserunners, with -5.4 runs tallied in both 2017 and 2015 — suggesting that his intervening ACL tear wasn’t solely to blame. Defensive metrics panned his glovework, too, with DRS (-8 runs) and UZR (-3.1) both casting Moustakas as a below-average performer despite previously rating him at times as a quality defender at the hot corner.
In any event, those facts and figures are of no real concern to the Royals, who are intimately familiar with a player they drafted (second overall in 2007) and developed into a productive big leaguer. Whatever qualms they may have about his long-term outlook are nullified in this agreement, anyway, and there’s no denying that Moustakas represents a remarkable bargain at this rate of pay for a single season’s commitment. (Compare to Pablo Sandoval (five years, $95MM) and Chase Headley (four years, $52MM).)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Astros Return Rule 5 Pick Anthony Gose To Rangers
The Rangers announced today that they received Rule 5 pick Anthony Gose back from the Astros and assigned him to Triple-A Round Rock. He’ll join the Rangers in big league camp as a non-roster player. The Astros reportedly placed the left-hander/outfielder on outright waivers earlier this week.
Gose, a former big league outfielder, had been hoping to make a stacked Astros roster as a reliever. The former top outfield prospect converted to the mound last season after several years of difficulties at plate. Gose was a two-way star as an amateur but was drafted and developed solely as an outfielder. His arm strength from the outfield and his former pitching prowess have translated to the mound to an extent, as he’s reportedly been able to touch triple digits with his fastball.
Gose pitched 10 2/3 innings in Class-A Advanced in the Rangers organization last season and posted a 14-to-6 K/BB ratio in that time. It’s possible that the Rangers will continue to give him a look on the mound, though the team’s exact plans for him remain unclear. Rangers EVP of communications John Blake referenced Gose as an outfielder/left-handed pitcher in announcing the move, so perhaps he’ll continue to work on both elements of his game.
White Sox Release Willy Garcia
The White Sox announced their second series of roster cuts this spring today, which included the release of outfielder Willy Garcia. The move opens up a second 40-man roster spot for the ChiSox, who previously had 39 players on the 40-man.
Chicago acquired Garcia, 25, off waivers from the Pirates last January, and he went on to make his MLB debut with the team in 2017 (at times appearing in an all-Garcia outfield which also consisted of Avisail Garcia and Leury Garcia). In 119 plate appearances with the Sox, Garcia hit .238/.305/.400 with three homers. His work in Triple-A was strong, as evidenced by a .286/.396/.473 slash — a notable step forward from a fairly dismal Triple-A campaign with the Buccos in 2016.
Garcia’s 2017 season was cut short by a broken jaw suffered in a collision with Yoan Moncada in late July, though he returned to appear in four games in late September. With Adam Engel, Nicky Delmonico, Ryan Cordell, Charlie Tilson and Daniel Palka all on the big league roster or in the upper minors (plus Avisail and Leury both still locks for the 25-man roster), Garcia faced a difficult path to resurfacing in the Majors this season.
Garcia had yet to take an at-bat this spring, as he’d been limited by a wrist injury, according to Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.