The Twins have continued their aggressive, late foray into the free-agent market, announcing on Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Lance Lynn to a one-year contract. He’ll earn $12MM, per the team, confirming previous reports on his salary. The deal reportedly allows Lynn to earn another $2MM worth of incentives — half each upon reaching 170 and 180 innings. Lynn, a client of Excel Sports Management, will get right going with the Twins and start their Grapefruit League Game against the Orioles tomorrow, per the team’s announcement.
The pact makes Lynn the latest victim of a slow-moving offseason in which a number of high-profile players have been forced to settle for one-year deals that look diminutive in comparison to those they were expected to receive. At the outset of the offseason, we ranked Lynn ninth on our list of the top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d receive $56MM over four years. More recently, our player profile for the righty suggested he could even achieve a $60MM deal. Obviously, the (relatively) meager $12MM guarantee from the Twins falls significantly short of those expectations. He’ll instead join Mike Moustakas, Logan Morrison, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gonzalez as players who were widely expected to merit hefty multi-year pacts but will ultimately be guaranteed less money than reliever Juan Nicasio.
As for the Twins, the deal comes as the latest move of an incredibly busy (and cost-efficient) offseason during which the club has managed to patch its rotation quite nicely. After missing out on Yu Darvish, to whom the club reportedly offered a nine-figure contract that would’ve shattered the club record, the Twins traded a low-profile prospect for Jake Odorizzi and have now gotten an incredible bargain on Lynn. Minnesota also managed to bring Morrison to Minnesota on just a $6.5MM deal with incentives and a vesting option. Though Lynn and Morrison were widely expected to command in the vicinity of $100MM in combined guarantees, the Twins will promise them a total of just $18.5MM. The club has also shored up their bullpen this winter by signing Addison Reed, Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney.
Lynn will join Odorizzi as a newcomer in the rotation, which will also eventually feature three holdovers in the form of Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson. Santana, however, will be out for as much as the first month of the season after undergoing surgery in February to repair an injury in his right middle finger. The increased number of off-days early in the season could cause the Twins to largely get by without a fifth starter in that time, though lefty Adalberto Mejia and veteran Phil Hughes (returning from his second thoracic outlet surgery) are among the on-hand options should a fifth starter be needed. The addition of Lynn likely pushes Tyler Duffey back to the bullpen and further lessens the organization’s need to rush top prospects Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves to the Majors.
[RELATED: Updated Minnesota Twins Depth Chart/Updated Minnesota Twins Payroll]
The 30-year-old rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals at the outset of the offseason, so the Twins will be forced to forfeit a 2018 draft pick after signing him. But because the Twins were revenue-sharing recipients in 2017 and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, that pick will be just their fourth-highest of the draft (number 95 overall). They’d normally be required to surrender their third-highest pick, but for Minnesota that’s a protected selection in Competitive Round B. For Lynn’s part, he’ll no longer be eligible to receive a qualifying offer next year thanks to a provision in the new CBA.
Lynn’s spent his entire career thus far with the Cardinals, who selected him with a supplemental first round pick in 2008. He reached the majors for the first time in 2011, and pitched his first full season in the majors the following year. From that point, he chucked 752 2/3 innings for the Redbirds (to the tune of a 3.39 ERA) across four seasons before tearing his UCL and undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2015. After returning to the mound to kick off the 2017 campaign, the righty made 33 starts and posted a 3.43 ERA.
Although it seems on the surface that he picked up right where he left off, pre- and post-Tommy John surgery Lynn don’t look like the exact same pitcher. While he boasted a career K/9 of 8.67 prior to going under the knife, his 2017 mark was a meager 7.39. Likewise, his 4.75 xFIP last season was almost exactly a full run higher than the 3.74 figure he owned prior to 2016. His control wasn’t quite as good either, as evidenced by a 3.77 BB/9 mark in 2017. His pre-Tommy John mark was just 3.35. These statistical red flags, along with a 0.6 MPH drop on his average fastball, may have been part of the reason teams were wary of giving him a long-term pact. Still, he’s at least got durability going for him; outside of 2016 he’s thrown at least 175 innings in each of his full major league seasons.
The Lynn deal seems to spell bad news for fellow right-hander Alex Cobb who remains on the free agent market. It’s tough to imagine that Cobb, who’s also one season removed from Tommy John surgery and owns similar career run-prevention numbers, will be able to substantially eclipse Lynn’s guarantee. With just under three weeks until Opening Day, it’ll be interesting to see what type of contract the top remaining free-agent starter can secure, especially in relation to his most statistically comparable open-market competitor.
FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported the two sides were close to a deal (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter links). Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press tweeted details of the incentives.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
I hope this happens! Twins rotation would actually be pretty good!
Off the record, but TIM DILLARD is pitching on the TV for the Brewers!
Another Scott Boras client who signed a 1 year deal that is far less than the Qualifying Offer. Nice work there, Scott!
Plus the Twins give up a pick on a 1 year deal! Don’t understand it at all, but I’m sure if it works out, they will try to extend Lynn!
Lynn and Odorizzi might get the Twins a nice return at the deadline. I don’t see them contending this year. The Royals will surprise people this year and the Twins are not as good as the Angels and they are no where near the Yankees, Astros, Redsox and Indians. The Sano situation will have a huge impact on the team and will likely cost them some wins. Think about what the Twins could get from contenders if they shop Lynn, Odorizzi, Morrison, Reed and Santana at the deadline. It is a given the Cubs will need a starter. At this point the Twins look like they can spend the next 5 years chasing the second wild card or they can do a tear down this year and recoup enough prospects to take them to the next level.
You’re hilarious. Is comedian your day job?
I don’t think you know much about the Twins. On paper they look like they’ll compete for the ALC. That team was every bit as good last year as they played. No fluke. And the addition of Morrison was likely to get out ahead of any loss of Sano. Whom which they played without from mid August on last year. They’ve added much needed bullpen and rotation help. Buxton, Kepler and Rosario make a great outfield trio. Mauer had a bit of resurgence and Dozier is Dozier. Then you have Escobar who is a dang good little player. The weakest link to me looks like Polanco who is streaky and yet to fully figure it out. The bench is not bad either. Take a look at their 40 man and pick 25 that go north on the plane. They look pretty solid.
I put them at 88-94 wins.
took freakin’ long enough.
Hope they didn’t pay too much. If they didn’t, like it.
Good on the Twins if they get him for cheap. I dont know if it would be enough but theyve been addressing their needs well.
I could never hate the Twins. Even though im not a fan of the Twins, the only time i’d be mad at their victories if it was over my team.
Does anyone else see the twins as the al central favorite?
I am leery to call the Twins favorites. Firstly because there was a seventeen win difference between them and Cleveland last try, and secondly just because the champs are the champs until proven otherwise. I certainly think the Twins are getting better faster than Cleveland, and there is some possible formula or path for the Twins to take the Central in ’18. After all, the homegrown core of this team has defied baseball’s expectations thus far.
Injuries can always sway either way, and we are all just playing a guessing game anyways.
We’ll see. I don’t expect it all to come together in one season but they have a solid chance at the playoffs..
I do. If they play like last year and their rotation looks solid
This was such an obvious fit I’m surprised it didn’t happen three months ago
maybe bc he wasnt their target. now they got a bargain.
I get re-signing these guys to a one year deal, but why the Twins give up a draft pick for a single year of Lynn? Signing him to a multi-year deal at least gets you enough potential value to justify losing a 2nd rounder. But one year is very unlikely to outdo a 2nd round pick.
The Twins place a certain value on the pick, and the loss of that value is factored into how much money they are willing to give Lynn.
2nd round pick. Lol. Probably number 50. 1 yr means they assume little risk.
Just mind boggling nobody else able to top that
It’s actually number 95 the Twins gave up to sign Lynn.
I think it’s 75.. Twins had an extra pick.
Yeah because 2nd rd picks in the MLB never amount to anything……the Twins aren’t legit contenders and it doesn’t make sense to give up a high draft pick for 1 year of Lynn. Best case scenario is that Lynn has a big 1st half and MIN can trade him.
It’s 95 pick 75 is in competitive balance portion of draft so protected or something. Guess that could be a factor, and it’s not like they’re spending ungodly money twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/9725992905091235…
Yep, looks like you’re right and I was wrong.
If you don’t think they’re contenders at this point you haven’t been paying attention
Or sign him to an extension if they are still in it!
Twins aren’t legit contenders? Says who? You? chuckles….
Consider, it may have been Lynn, not the Twins, who required 1-yr only given the low AAS and the expectation that next year’s profile will be more attractive without the draft pick penalty
It takes two to tango. Even if Lynn “required” it, the Twins didn’t have to give it. That is the one thing people need to learn from this pffseason. Just because a player or an agent or a fan thinks a player is worth x amount of dollars does not mean the teams will give it.
yup
Bust rate for 2nd picks is at least 80%. Chances a pick is even league average is 5%. Its a lottery ticket
Care to show the proof for your numbers?
Of course it is, but so is one year in the career of a mid-range pitcher. What happens if he gets hurt? What happens if he has a poor year due to a late start in Spring Training? A multi year deal gives pitchers multiple opportunities to provide enough value to offset the value of a 2nd rounder. A 2nd rounder doesn’t have to make it to provide value. Even early round busts have trade value in their first couple of minor league years.
It’s not a second round pick it’s a late 3rd round pick
Same difference.
Exactly. These knuckleheads who have you think it’s a 1st round top 10 pick by the way they’re talking. lol
More than 50% make the majors from 2nd round. 71% from the 1st round. 1 in 5 pitching picks become major league average or better starters for either a 1st or a 2nd round pick. Another 20% become regular relievers. Not quite a lottery ticket.
Very specific stats, but no source given to back them up. Please provide. Thank you.
If you have time look at the draft 1st and 2nd rounds from 2007 to 2012 look up the names and look at career war from baseball reference it is stunning how many players are 1 or less career war from the first and second rounds and how many complete busts there are. I didn’t check percentages but my conclusion is that the draft outside of the top 10 is a complete crapshoot. There were also more busts in the top 10 of each year then I expected as well.
It’s a fourth round pick!!!!! sheesh it’s like an echo chamber in here. It’s a garbage pick at best.
bullsh!t it’s NOWHERE near 50% in the 2nd round. Utter complete bullsh!t post.
Maybe the twins think they might have a chance to make the playoffs this year, and lynn might have a better chance of helping them now than a 2nd round pick down the line who may never amount to anything
Fair point. I just think the potential downside outweighs the good on a single year deal. Signing him for 2-3 years at least gives them some insurance for value down the line in case he gets hurt or has a down year in 2018.
Exactly. they are trying to put a contender on the field
Well they made the playoffs last year with almost the same exact team so great deduction there sherlock.
poirot thank you.
but they were a surprise
It’s not a big pick as it’s under 50 mil
Do I have this straight guys? Wouldn’t it normally be a third rounder, but because the Twins have protection over that, it’s their fourth round pick? The article says 95th overall. Could someone clarify for me? If it’s fourth overall, I think it’s a fair, calculate risk. It sure does tell fans they are trying to win this year, and what more could you ask?
It’s the 95th because their comp is protected. Article is correct.
Thanks, Twins33. I occasionally make the mistake of holding something Rhett Bollinger wrote or said to be true. You should take his job. Your one line is enough to demonstrate that you have far superior intelligence,
Statistically speaking, that 2nd rounder will never make it to the majors.
wrong
Wrong – because they don’t have to give up their 2nd round pick.
reading > you
Agreed. One year and losing picks is kinda rough. Why not go 2?
hes prob not thee guy they want. maybe spend more nrxt year
They did give him a two year offer some time earlier but he rejected it. Not sure if the offer was recent or months ago. Newer info I saw says it wasn’t as recent as it seems.
Seems like Lynn is betting on himself. He can’t get a QO again. If he pitches well, he’ll hope to get more years and AAV next year. Any teams that miss out on Kershaw and Keuchel may be in on him next year.
Either this offseason was a sign of things to come or teams will go back to spending because next years FA class is way better.
most of the recent deals have had mutual options that’s probably the case again
For a team like the Twins losing a draft pick really hurts for a one year deal, but they will be challenged to make the playoffs even with Lynn. They had to make a run at it.
maybe wouldnt have done it if it was within the first two rounds. i understand their farm is in great shape though
Great offseason for the Twins! Could very well be the AL Central team to beat this year
I’m sure Cleveland is quaking in their cleats! Team to beat???? Come on
Cleveland is a weaker team going into this season, Minnesota has improved an already good team. I’m not a Twins fan, making an observation that they need to be looked at as a team that could unseat the Indians this year
The Indians won 100 games last year
yes, but they’ve lost Carlos Santana, Bryan Shaw, Joe Smith, Jay Bruce, Austin Jackson…..
I wouldn’t go as far as saying the Twins are the team to beat but they have done a nice job closing the gap this year. If Buxton continues coming off his breakout second half and the rotation holds up it could be an interesting race.
The only thing I question is the way the contracts line up. Mauer is getting older and Dozier is a free agent after 2019 unless they get an extension together. Morrison at least has an option year but if Lynn is just a straight 1 year deal and an extension doesn’t happen for Dozier they are almost back to square one after 2019 when Chicago and Detroit should be looking to get back into the race too.
Guy’s peripherals looked awful last year. He could be very near the precipice.
I’m sorry, but I just do not see him, or some of these others, as ‘high-profile’ players. Owner’s apparently agree….
This move could be the move that seriously challenges the Indians for the division. Twins have heck of a 2018 free agent class:
Brian dozier
Joe Mauer
Lance Lynn
Zach duke
Fernando Rodney
Eduardo Escobar
Logan Morrison (potentially)
bright side of have a FA class like that is if theyre out of playoff contention end of july, they can easily restock by flipping those you’ve listed
The only one on that list that would warrant a qualifying offer is Dozier. The rest are second tier options at best.
I am optimistic that they’ll be very good this year. Especially with all these guys playing for a contract.
Kind of surprised about the one year deal. At $12 million AAV a second or even third year wouldn’t cripple them.
That said I like seeing the Twins pushing to compete for the division.
And the dominos keep falling. How much longer until the next?
There you go again Kyle calling the players victims. Can you explain how they are victims please. Sure they are victims of themselves or of their agents misreading the market but the MLBPA negotiated the deal.
The players got the chefs in the clubhouse! They did not negotiate a higher tax threshold. They did not do anything about the QO.
So Kyle why are they victims?
Because Lynn was expected to get a much longer and richer contract.
only bc of the scarcity of sp available
only bc of sp scarcity.
Byron Buxton MVP, Lance Lynn is performing a service. If the neighbor boy and his parents expect that he will shovel my sidewalk for $20 and I say I’ll give him $12 for it, he does not become become a victim of anything.
I get the crusade you’re on, but “victim” is used very literally here, not the loaded way that you describe. Literally speaking, these players are victims of a poor free agent market in the sense that precedent suggests they should receive more lucrative deals. I’m not arguing against your suggestion that players are somewhat hypocritically victimizing themselves in this situation, but it’s honestly a bit ludicrous and overly-policing to suggest the word choice in this article is questionable.
One Fan……Merriam-Webster….. Definition of victim – one that is acted on and usually adversely affected by a force or agent. Think about it a while…consider the definition…consider the “force”….consider the…oh never mind…look who I’m asking. BTW I would love to have the money you must spend on cheese.
That’s just it though. Lynn was technically unemployed and no team was obligated to offer him a contract, especially not one predicted by some dedicated fans. So some people might be disappointed in 1 year, $12 million offers but that is $12 million more than not signing. He’s not a victim. He was the recipient of a contact offer. Not getting an offer when his skills certainly deserve one would have made him a victim of the slow off season and repercussions of losing a draft pick for being signed.
Victim of the system set up that does not allow true free agency.
1. Player belongs to an organization via a draft. Not on his preference.
2. For the next 8-10 years (including minors) player has no choice in where he plays. If he is one of the 1,000 best players in the world, he has no say in what he gets paid. He works a WAY under the value of his work.
4. For the next three years he gets increasing paychecks, but almost always is working for substantially less than his value. His contract, through arbitration is one year at a time.
5. Teams to every thing they can to extend control by another year. See Kris Bryant.
6. When a player finally is “free” to sign where he wishes, the “free”
Market is constrained by:
A. A soft salary cap, where teams who have needs (and money) can not spend. See the 2018 Giants.
B. Qualifying Offers by which teams can extend control over the player even further.
Lance Lynn is not a great pitcher, but he’s a good one. One who, in an unrestrained market would help at least half the MLB teams (being conservative) and would be paid with at least a 3-year deal and at least $30 million dollars.
The player did not set the system up. But has been hurt by the effects.
So, yeah, “victim” is an appropriate term here.
LOL…. This opinion is actually so dumb. No true Free Agency because the small market teams would complain. The Yankees Dodgers and Red Sox would win every World Series if we had some of the things you are proposing. And this is coming from a Yankees fan.
You had the energy to type out what I did not. Thank you. Well-articulated.
OUD,
The players negotiate(d) the system, so in effect, the player set up the system, or at the very least, played a part in doing so.
Ummm, no, not a victim.
I know in our modern society playing the victim card has been done quite a bit, and is used to obtain leverage in many situations, so… nice try.
They are victims of a crappy CBA that underpays young players significantly. The CBA is why teams figure they might as well pay their barely above replacement level players 300k instead of 12 million…
It’s not really hard to figure out.
The players got outsmarted in this round of negotiations.
So, here’s where it’s headed:
Are the players willing to collectively give up millions – even billions – of dollars of salary to go on strike for half a season to get what they want in the next CBA.
Machado, Trout, Harper and Stanton will have their money locked up by then.
Are they going to support a strike that lasts half a season and give up 15 million bucks apiece doing it?
Falvey and the boys dunking on everybody.
Lynn is a good bargain. Cobb isn’t durable and Arrieta is trending negatively but Lynn is consistent and other than 16’ durable. Good signing, surprised no one gave for 3 and 36 or something along those lines.
The red flags are there. Dude walked a tightrope last season and I think he is in for a major fall. Twins fans seem like good peeps, I hope I’m wrong.
But there are pitchers who have consistently out-pitched their peripherals. He is one of them. He is somewhat of a big game pitcher who brings a lot of energy and animation. There are some things that numbers still haven’t explained.
Contrary to all the other people, I think Lynn will do well. He is a good pitcher. Last year his stuff wasn’t the best as he was still recovering from injury. Now that he’s healthier, he should bounce back.
He was ranked 9th best FA on this site, I hardly think you’re the only one going against “all the other people” who apparently think he’s garbage.
ORIOLES! WHERE ARE YOU? 1/12? YOU EASILY COULD HAVE AFFORDED THAT! That’s what you paid Ubaldo last year!
That’s exactly why they will hesitate. They are trying to learn from mistakes.
But i was saying that they have payroll space. And Ubaldo was a four year deal, Lynn is only one.
Perhaps Lynn would prefer to pitch in Minnesota. Not as much of a hitters park and a better place to build value.
Do you know for sure he would have taken the same offer from the O’s?
now can the Brewers sign alex cobb to a 1 year 12-14 million deal
Doubt it. They are still positioning themselves for the long term, they are not in win now mode. No reason to bring him in on a one year deal and cost a draft pick. May make it more likely he takes a 2 or 3 year deal though. Lynn just makes one more pitcher in a stronger FA class next season so I doubt he’ll be super eager to hit the market again next season.
Do I doubt the Brewers will sign Cobb? Yes, I doubt it, but to say they’re not in win now mode is downright wrong. You don’t trade for Yelich and sign a 31 year old CF to a 5 year deal on the same day to continue a rebuilding trend. They’re in win now mode, and they still have a farm full of potential to draw from over the course of the next few seasons.
They need another starter and got one, this is the way it is supposed to be. Am really looking forward to the season with Lynn and Odorizzi in the mix
Did Dombrowski signing Moreland instead of Hosmer tank the whole market?
How’s that? Hosmer still got a crazy contract — biggest of the off season— and Moreland got more than all of the other fungible 1st basement.
My favorite FA SP. Great job, Twins.
For those keeping count:
Mike Moustakas, Carlos Gonzalez, Jonathon Lucroy, Lance Lynn, signed in a span of 48 hours.
Hot Stove, indeed?
For a combined less than $30-million (without incentives)
51 left to go from the 166 FA that were on season-ending rosters.
… always liked Lynn.
Not a victim. Stop with that term. His peripherals were awful.
You really can’t say someone is being victimized if they signed their name in agreement to be payed $12 million to play a game, can you?
It’s not just a game, it’s a $12 billion entertainment industry. So who deserves to get most of the money the players produce by playing? The players or the owners?
The owners, who foot all of the risk and provide the capital to allow the league to exist.
There’s not a lot of risk and the tax payers generally foot the largest chunk of the bill for the venues they play in.
At this point, I think the public is providing the capital. We’ve paid for all but four stadiums and reliably spend the consumer dollars that get the broadcast outlets to sign multi-billion rights contracts.
Each side has a right to whatever they negotiate for. This time, the owners took the players to the cleaners. If they’re smart, next time they’ll make sure they get younger players paid a lot more to balance out teams realizing that older players aren’t as good an investment.
They should also push for making all revenue sharing go directly into player contracts by only letting the recipients have it as matching funds that subsidize free agent or extension contracts.
It is more than a game, it is an insanely popular entertainment business. And he is a victim of this years poor free agent market.
Absolutely the money should go to the performers, I agree. I only meant to remark that “victim” has connotations of force. It’s first use, a person harmed, injured, or killed as a result of crime or accident, clearly has no place here. It’s second is closer: a person who is tricked or duped, but this man rolled his own dice when he knowingly turned down a promised $17.4 MM. I fail to see how he was tricked.. He certainly has never been a living creature killed as a religious sacrifice, either, so I really feel the word doesn’t belong here.
All of the risk? Think about how Buxton hits the wall or how Pierzynski would block the plate when you calculate risk. I’d rather give all the money in the world than my brains.
Their contracts are guaranteed, regardless of their injuries. If you don’t want to face those issues, you don’t need to play ML Baseball. We are talking about financial risk here…
I think you (now) are talking about financial risk. We all understand that nobody has to choose baseball as a profession. I didn’t say it wasn’t their choice. Playing a pro sport is high risk and high reward. I think one would be nuts not to take that risk, if they could. But you declared that the owners should get paid more because they are risking more, which couldn’t be further off.
2017 FA market will provide an excellent case study of how the QO affected Players’ markets. An excellent Case Study.
1) Lynn declined one-year $17.4M to sign 12M (+2M incent)
2) Moose declined one-year $17.4M to sign 6.5M (+2.2M incent)
3) Jake Arrieta — TBA
4) Alex Cobb — TBA
You don’t think a HUGE part of that is the individual players over-valuing their own worth?
EVERYONE overestimated the players worth so that means it is most likely to be collusion on the part of the owners. When you are not watching MLB baseball on April 1st, you may look deeper.
Outinleftfield your collusion claim is basically .. well … out in left field
Collusion that excludes relievers, the Padres, the Brewers & the Red Sox. Your accusations are still a joke OILF
Yeah.. collusion…
Or almost all the teams finally woke up and stopped overpaying bad old players.
I think that there being so few true “contenders” has a little to do with it too. Why overpay a bad old player when you can get similar production for 1/20 of the price.
It’s common sense, not collusion.
No,Outinleft’s comment is in the bullpen where the bulls crap..
i do
Xabial you make no sense at all. If anything you are just pointing out that players should NOT decline the QO if they are not at least worth it. All this proves is how dumb those players were to turn down a QO believing they were worth more
So here’s a fun topic of discussion .With all the recent bargain signings, you can pretty much expect each signing to provide value. Of the guys who signed one year contracts well below projections, who if anybody WON’T provide value (and probably end his chances at a big deal payday forever)?
I’ll go with Moose.
I would say Lynn if you’re talking guys like Lynn, Moose, Lucroy and Morrison.
Reason being is Moose is who he is, I don’t see him as changing drastically. Same team. Same player. Why would his value drop? Now that being said the way teams value his mold of player has changed dramatically but he’s already feeling that impact.
Lynn on the other hand is a greater injury risk by default for being an older pitcher and the switch to a new team and the AL typically being harder on pitchers all mean there’s more chance for a drop off in his case.
Twins are loaded for 2018. Unfortunately, Cleveland is still better
Awesome value for a guy that’s put up 175+ innings in 4 of 5 seasons. Even if he pitches like a #3 guy this is a steal.
He definitely aint a #2…holy hell he is the definition of a 4 or 5 or swingman
Lynn is going to get smoked in the AL and at target field…12 mil for 8 wins and a 4.5 era…great signing
How? I thought Target Field was a Pitcher’s Park.
It’s actually ranked the #7 best hitters park when using park factors, just above Miller Park which is always thought of as a great hitters park. The move from the NL to the AL should increase ERA, but being in a division that is all rebuilding outside of the Indians may help that adjustment.
Thank you someone who will comment and actually know what they are talking about sir mike.
I thought this was a site a baseball fans target a pitchers park? That should be down voted 100 times if this is a site of real intelligent baseball fans. Not just one-liner trolls…go watch a vin diesel movie if you’re into that
When Twins signed Phil Hughes (a fly ball pitcher) who failed with NYY at the time, everyone said “He will do better, Target”
I really thought Target had the reputation of a Pitcher’s Park.
It used to be neutral in the first few years. Has been more of a hitters park the last couple.
Well you must not watch many games my friend…plenty of time to say random false stuff on chat sites though…
I think just cause it’s a decent sized park and the ball doesn’t carry the best in the early months people just assume it’s a pitchers park, but the numbers say otherwise the last few years.
Lets see some stats then…lol
I don’t watch Twins games. You’re right. The knowledge I have to go by is from an outsiders perspective. No need to be condescending. I’m willing to learn, and learned something new. That’s what this site’s all about.
Target was a pitchers park with the trees and original dimensions. That changed after the first year.
Thank you for clearing up the stereotype. Look at Target Field from a different perspective now.
And I thought AL Central was arguably the weakest division in baseball? (DH or no DH)
This isn’t the AL East
This is what everyone said when i said dansby swanson would suck…so watch the padres be 4 games back of the wc in late august and watch lynn have a first season at target similar to phil Hughes the past 2 seasons
he will go 9-15
That is insane. To give up a draft pick for a rental.
95th pick…. I’ll plead ignorance but… Chances are Lynn turns out better than that pick.
not to mention if the team isnt doing well, they can deal him at the deadline for a prospect that is the equivalent or better of that pick.
For one year? 95th picks that were pitchers have had a better than 50% chance of making the majors and a 17.5% chance of being a major league average starter over the past 30 years.
Nonsense stats.?
Well Lynn is above average, and only 17.5% of players are average. There is a good chance Lynn is better. You just need to take into account control years, as you have one on Lynn and six or seven on the pick.
In the last 50 years only 2 players drafted 95th overall have career WARs over 3.1 (Lynn’s WAR just for last year), Addison Reed (6.8) and Roger Bailey (5.3). I think the Twins are okay with that risk.
The Qualifying Offer has to go.
This is ridiculous.
A player like Lynn having to go through crap like this.
And no one willing to pick him up because of the QO except MN.
Wow !!!!!!
Supposedly he had bigger money offers from other teams, but picked the Twins. Probably not a significant amount though. He had interest elsewhere.
Well George B your point makes no sense. Who said no one signed him due to QO? I mean did not the Twins just sign him despite the QO amd forefit draft pick for only a one year deal
I acknowledged that previously. The Twins had little to lose. (See Below)
“But because the Twins were revenue-sharing recipients in 2017 and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, that pick will be just their fourth-highest of the draft (number 95 overall).”
That was right in the article. Didn’t you read it?
The Twins had little to lose vs contenders like BOS, NYY, LAD, CHC, WAS due to the QO.
The biggest loser was Lynn.
Lance Lynn was projected to get 4/$56MM by MLTR.
We just saw Moose take peanuts.
Are you saying the QO is a good thing for the players or to the other teams that forfeit a high draft pick?
What is your point?
Lynn makes $12M vs $17M. How does that make sense? And is a FA at the end of the year again with no more QO’s. StL saves $17M, gets a 95th pick and loses Lynn. Wonder if it was worth it to StL?
If Lynn had waited until after the draft he would have most likely gotten a multi year deal near the MLBTR estimate. But let’s just see what he gets this winter after the 2018 season and we’ll see if the QO was the real cause of him only getting $12M.
Then they should accept the QO or take their multi year offers. I agree the QO system is a little flawed, but it is a way for small market teams to receive compensation for their prized players they will not be able to resign.
George B, you write like Lance Lynn is a small infant, incapable of weighing risk and reward. He is, in actuality, a fully grown man who is quite capable of making his own decisions. His free will took him “through crap like this”. I think your comment does more to belittle him than a $12 MM to do what he loves.
I’m not singling out Lynn and I’m happy for the Twins.
This likely puts them in the race.
I’m discussing the process of the QO.
Think it has to go in it’s current form.
the twins may actually be good
Yes, the Twins made a great move for 2018.
This puts them in a great spot to contend for the 5th playoff spot.
Which IS all we can hope for under the current competitive imbalance.
Why does everyone on this site always whine about the competitive imbalance? Using championships, MLB has better parity than most leagues lately including the nfl. And to claim the 5th playoff spot is the best the twins could ever hope for, you must not have watched baseball in the 2000s. Additionally, they’re not in a top heavy division. All 5 teams have a division title in the last 10 years. They can definitely hope for better than 5th wildcard spot
I get that players should share a higher percent of the profits but earning 12-14 million does not make you a victim of anything. That’s about 300 years of average annual salary for Americans.
How much does the average American worker produce in revenue? I bet it’s not even close to the $16 million that a MLB baseball player generates on average.
Team revenue is generated by more factors than players. I’m not sure where that 16 mill comes from but I’m sure it’s probably including money that had nothing to do with players (like tv deals). Regardless, still not a victim.
If players were paid according to the revenue they actually generate, Trout, Kershaw and a few others would get ten times more than they do now and pretty much everyone else would get the minimum.
Very few players actually make a difference in terms of ratings, ticket sales, etc.
Trout might be worth $250-300 million a year using that measure. But, OTOH, the majority of players making between $5 and $14 million are probably worth $1 million or so by the same scale.
Excellent point!
What’s that got to do with the price of bananas?
We compare an MBL players salary to other MLB players not Joe 6 Pack.
The QO is a bad rule and has to go.
What’s the point of being a free agent if you’re not truly a free agent?
Joe 6 Pack would surely love to not truly be a free agent and get 12 million dollars for one year’s work.
I was not on the Lynn train this offseason (NL to AL, bad peripherals etc) but 1/12 is nothing. I’d want them to do that deal all day.
They only lose the 95th pick, which I’d prefer to not lose but it’s way easier to swallow than the type of draft pick they would have lost before this new CBA. Hopefully this kicks Sanchez off the 40 man.
$12 million and the 95th pick in the draft? A steal for the Twins!
What is with the negativity of Twins fans complaining about losing their 4th pick? So needy, first it is calling the pohlads cheap, then its saying a month ago that this is same stuff terry ryan did.
They are trying to win. Any of you name our 4th pick from last few drafts with out google.
Last years was easy because it’s Enlow and their entire draft revolved around it.. beyond that who knows.
I did use google, but 2013 was Gonsalves and 2010 was Eddie Rosario
So possibly four good players since 2007 (Rosario, Gonsalves, Baddoo who people are high on and Enlow). Only one with MLB experience so far, in Rosario.
I had to google too. And there were a few where I went “who?!” and I sort of pay attention to the draft especially when the team is bad.
NOT complaining about pick 95… but the Po’lads have been under funding this team for DECADES. Carl was CHEAP and just got lucky we found Kirby…
Minnesota is where free agent pitchers are taken out to pasture…name one good one in the past 10 years…you might have to back to the 90s to find a free agent pitcher that signed and had any type of real success.
Ervin Santana?
Also in Phil Hughes first year he broke records…. then managed to break himself.
One good season? One and a half?
Blame Rick Anderson, not the twins. He was getting strike out pitchers and power pitchers to throw into bats. It’s been an improvement now that he’s gone. You can’t treat every pitcher the same.
Its never happened in target field built after 2007…lol
New FO. Turn the page.
You aint got to read it lol!!!
I wish the Rangers had been smart enough to wait out this pitching market. They could have had Lynn and Cobb for the money they ended up spending on a bunch of spare parts who won’t be nearly as effective, most likely.
This is an excellent signing. He can maybe eat 190-200 innings at the back of the rotation with no long term risk. They’ve blown money on worse players I didn’t even understand (Nolasco, Marquis, Capuano… to name a few terrible signings). It stabilizes a rotation, and that’s all the twins need. Cleveland has the pitching, but twins have the offense. I’d rather have the team that needs their pitchers to only give up 3-4 runs as opposed to cleveland who will pray for a shutout every game.
They were neck and neck in runs scored last year. Cleveland lost players twins added. Twins just need to cut down on strikeouts, but with LoMo on board i don’t see that happening.
who cares about inning eaters? give me a winner maker
Innings eaters implies winning or chance to winning. It means they are going deep into games which happens if they’re still in the game. It also saves the pen and keeps em fresh.
when your lance lynn and you’ve thrown 100 pitches through 5 innings, you ain’t fresh long
Capuano? He’s never been a Twin.
Chris Capuano has never suited up for Minnesota.
FART
If this is all it took, Dave Dombrowski, please call Alex Cobb! 3/30 and then trade E Rod for prospects worth significantly more than the QO penalty. Dumping E Rod and Holt’s arb salaries will even keep you under the $237M threshold if all you are paying Cobb is around 10M AAV, so there won’t be the extra 10 slot draft penalty.
3/30 sounds about right. I’m thinking 2/24
$14 mil x 4 years = $56 mil. right on the money yearly
The twins were expected to make some moves, but if you went back to the beginning of the off-season and said the twins were gonna sign Lance Lynn, Addison Reed and Logan Morrison and acquire Jake Odorizzi – while also making a run at Darvish then one could argue – back at the beginning of the off-season that all that might be a stretch lol. But here they are. Great moves. I honestly think they win the central this year.
They have had a great offseason, along with the Angels*, but I still think the Indians have the central locked up. Twins for WC.
*Added Maitan, Ohtani, Upton, Kinsler, Cozart. A few may have been overpays considering this offseason’s trends(Upton, Cozart) but regardless, great additions.
“He’ll instead join Mike Moustakas, Logan Morrison, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gonzalez as players who were widely expected to merit hefty multi-year pacts but will ultimately be guaranteed less money than reliever Juan Nicasio.”
Props to Juan Nicasio haha
Arrieta two years to phillies, then !
The Twins were giving starts to Bartolo Colon in a pennant race last year.
Lynn is a very nice addition for them.
Great signing for the Twins. Sure they give up a second round pick but their team is already young as is.
Now they need to double down, go all in and get Arrietta.
There is better stuff for the rotation. Doubling down would be snagging Holland. They’d have a sick pen. Then maybe a mid season move for archer or another top of the rotation piece.
Arrieta would be slapping a number 3 or something in there. He thrived in the NL was never much for the Os. His downward trend would not play well in the AL.
I see Arrieta playing for the ducks in a year after Scott boras dumps him and no MLB team wants him. Also boras would do that because he is basically cancer in the flesh.
Holland is garbage now which is why he’s looking for work. He went down hill after the AS break. He another one who is banging his head wishing he took Colorado offer. All these players better wake up. Like in the world of employment everyone’s replaceable.
Holland’s loss not Colorado.
Holland will be lucky to get 1 year 14 million
They’re giving up the 95th pick.
Sure, it’s less than he probably originally expected, but calling someone who will earn $12+ million a “victim” is ridiculous.
So…they were going to offer Darvish a multi-year deal worth way more, but they only have 12 mil for Lynn. I know 12 mil is more than anyone could ask, but they could have at least offered or tried to offer more. Good for Lynn to not be about the money but it probably would have been nice to offered.
Lynn could have had 17.5 but didn’t think with his head. He rolled the dice and crapped out simple as that. Wish him luck though. Always liked him.
Why spend more than you have to? They offered a 2 year deal, he probably preferred one.
Welcome to Minnesota.
Lance lynn is not good.
He can hang in the majors, Bud. He’s good.
Fair to say the twins had the best offseason? lynn, odorizzi, morrison, rodney, reed, and duke plus the pineda pickup. major upgrades to the starting rotation and bullpen while adding to what was already a really good lineup.
Another shrewd move by the Twins brass. Cleveland isn’t going to get the cake walk for the division title they were expecting. Glad they did mostly squat.
If they trade him later in the year for a top prospect then this makes sense. If they don’t trade him for something valuable then this is a waste of money.
How on earth is this a waste of money? Twins lack of pitching has been relevant news for years. $12mm is money well spent in this case.
Guys that rejected a QO and had to settle for less are hardly victims. I would say $17.2mm or whatever it was is life changing money. Hard to call a gambler a victim when they don’t “win”
God Bless Us All.