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As the 2011-12 offseason concludes, next winter's market becomes easier to anticipate, since team needs are clearer and the 2012-13 free agent list is taking shape. The Nationals agreed to terms with Edwin Jackson on a one-year deal yesterday and Roy Oswalt is expected to sign a one-year deal of his own before long, so both right-handers will likely reappear on the free agent market a year from now. 

Four All-Star caliber starters are projected to join them: left-hander Cole Hamels and right-handers Zack Greinke, Matt Cain and Anibal Sanchez. Jackson, Hamels, Greinke, Cain and Sanchez each contributed at least 3.8 wins above replacement in 2011 and they're all 27 or 28 years old. If they continue pitching at an All-Star level in 2012, they'll be candidates for substantial long-term deals in free agency.

Ryan Dempster, Jeremy Guthrie, Hiroki Kuroda, Colby Lewis, Shaun Marcum, Jonathan Sanchez, Brandon McCarthy and others add depth to the projected free agent market. Some of those pitchers could position themselves for multiyear deals with strong seasons, while others will end up signing one-year contracts.

Keep in mind that this isn't a final look at the starting pitching market. Last year four starters signed extensions between the beginning of February and the end of April, as MLBTR's Exension Tracker shows. Some of the starters listed above will likely sign multiyear deals and weaken the projected 2013 free agent class in the process.

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The offseason is far from over, with extensions on the horizon, dozens of unresolved arbitration cases, and players like Edwin Jackson, Roy Oswalt and Yoenis Cespedes remaining on the free agent market. But if recent history is any indication, there’s not much reason to expect franchise-altering trades in the next six weeks. 

Last year, the biggest name dealt between the beginning of February and the middle of March was Aaron Laffey, as our Transaction Tracker shows. The year before saw an early February deal involving Willy Taveras, Aaron Miles and Adam Rosales, but not much else. In 2009, the February 1st to March 15th window featured a Michael Wuertz trade during a similarly quiet period. 

Back in 2008, however, months of rumors and speculation ended when Erik Bedard and Johan Santana were involved in early February blockbusters. There’s some history of major trades involving top starting pitchers, but the Matt Garza rumors have quieted down in recent weeks, and a significant deal doesn’t seem likely this month.

Why the calm six-week stretch from the beginning of February to the middle of March? Teams want to see what they have in their own camps before calling around for outside help. Plus, general managers are less likely to inquire about trades before injury concerns emerge during Spring Training. The quiet period should end toward the end of March, when out of options players who haven’t earned roster spots become available and a mini-flurry of deals takes place.

The arbitration hearing period has begun, and 25 players remain unsigned.  At a hearing, the team and the player's agency each take an hour to defend their salary submission, and an independent three-person panel picks one of the salaries.  In recent years, we've seen about 3-8 players have hearings annually.

Barring multiyear extensions or trades, expect hearings for Casey Janssen of the Blue Jays, Emilio Bonifacio and Anibal Sanchez of the Marlins, and John Lannan of the Nationals, and Jeff Niemann of the Rays, as their teams employ a file and trial strategy.  We've also heard a hearing is likely for Boston's David Ortiz, which Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says is tentatively scheduled for the middle of the month.  Many of the unsigned arbitration eligible players, such as Elvis Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, Matt Garza, Alex Gordon, Adam Jones, Clayton Kershaw, Shaun Marcum, Mike Napoli, and Sanchez, are candidates for multiyear deals.

For all the arbitration details, check out MLBTR's arbitration tracker.

It is fairly astonishing that we are entering the month when teams report for Spring Training, and Edwin Jackson remains as homeless as Thomas Jane in Arrested Development.

This is particularly true when we compare Jackson's free agency to the one enjoyed ten offseasons ago by Jason Schmidt. The year was 2001. The Diamondbacks had just beaten the Yankees in the World Series. George Harrison died. Anthrax was in the air.

But none of that stopped Jason Schmidt. The righty, about to enter his age-29 season, had put up an ERA+ of 107 while pitching for two teams. For his career, his ERA+ stood at 99, with career walk rate of 3.8 per nine innings and a strikeout rate of 6.9 per nine innings. He was rewarded with a five-year, $41MM contract from San Francisco.

Fast forward ten years, and look at Edwin Jackson. The righty, about to enter his age-29 season, has just put up an ERA+ of 106 while pitching for two teams. For his career, his ERA+ stands at 97, with a walk rate of 3.7 per nine innings and a strikeout rate of 6.7 per nine innings. And he can't find a job.

If Schmidt is any indication, today's teams are missing an opportunity for a bargain. Over his next five seasons, Schmidt pitched just over 1,000 innings at an ERA+ of 127. He made three All Star teams, finished in the top four of Cy Young voting twice, won an ERA title in 2003, and reduced his walks to 3.2 per nine while elevating his strikeouts to 9.0 per nine. He was well worth that $41MM investment.

Chances are good that Jackson won't approach Schmidt's contract length, and his annual salary could dip below Schmidt's as well, even adjusting for the decade that has passed. Why? Teams fear getting stuck with the other Schmidt deal — the three-year, $47MM contract he signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to the 2007 season. For that money, Los Angeles received 43 1/3 innings of 6.02 ERA pitching.

Nearly a billion dollars across 112 contract years was committed to 33 players with less than six years of Major League service time during the 2009-10 offseason extension period, spanning October 2009 through April 2010.  Joe Mauer, Ryan Howard, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, and Justin Upton each signed deals worth at least $50MM.  Two years removed from this extension period, which contracts now appear the most regrettable?

• Howard's five-year, $125MM extension begins with the 2012 season, the beginning of which he'll miss due to a torn Achilles tendon.  Ruben Amaro's deal was panned at the time and only looks worse now.
• Mauer's eight-year, $184MM extension began with a whimper, as he was limited to only 82 games and showed no power at the plate in 2011.  Bill Smith technically gets credit for this one, but any $100MM+ deal goes beyond the GM level.
• Amaro signed Joe Blanton to a three-year, $24MM deal prior to the 2010 season.  Due to an elbow injury, Blanton didn't provide his usual innings in 2011.  He's penciled into the 2012 rotation to finish off the contract.  The main player the Athletics received for Blanton in '08 was Adrian Cardenas, who was recently designated for assignment.
• Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd signed Huston Street to a three-year, $22.5MM deal two years ago.  Street was decent for 105 2/3 innings for the 2010-11 Rockies, but they unloaded him to San Diego last month in a salary dump.  It seems the Rockies decided Rafael Betancourt could handle the ninth inning at setup man-type money.
• Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik locked up center fielder Franklin Gutierrez to a four-year, $20.5MM deal.  At the time, locking down the arbitration years of a defensive-minded player did not seem necessary, since the arbitration process rewards power numbers for position players.  The Mariners still may benefit from getting one or two of Gutierrez's free agent years, if he bounces back.
• Adam Lind's extension was the first authored by GM Alex Anthopoulos, and the initial returns are ugly.  It's a team-friendly deal with steady arbitration salaries and three club options, but the bottom line is the team guaranteed $18MM to a player who may not have a future as a regular.
• Mark Reynolds' three-year, $14.5MM extension was a Josh Byrnes deal.  Home runs pay in arbitration and defense may be largely ignored, but a .210 batting average affects earnings negatively.  Since the contract only covered arbitration years, it was probably best to just let the process play out.
• In addition to Mauer, then-Twins GM Bill Smith locked up starter Nick Blackburn for four years and $14MM, plus a club option.  Like many of the players on this list, Blackburn may have seemed at the time like a nice guy to have around, but going year-to-year made more sense.
• As a non-tender candidate with the Royals, Mark Teahen's three-year, $14MM extension from White Sox GM Kenny Williams was surprising from day one.  The Blue Jays took him off their hands to facilitate the Edwin Jackson deal that led to their Colby Rasmus acquisition, and will pay Teahen $5.5MM to not play for them in 2012.
• Athletics GM Billy Beane guaranteed $12.5MM to Brett Anderson, at the time a record for a pitcher with less than two years of service.  Because of Anderson's elbow issues and eventual Tommy John surgery, it turns out guaranteeing him at least $8.5MM for his first two arbitration years was a mistake.  The club option on Anderson's first free agent year (2015) might still be a plus, but they'd have to overpay at $8MM for his third arbitration year in 2014 to have the chance to realize that.
• Rangers GM Jon Daniels rewarded Scott Feldman with a two-year, $11.5MM deal, covering the pitcher's last two arbitration years.  I suppose the main benefit was a $9.25MM option on the righty's first free agent year, but that's not looking valuable now.
• There are a few more multiyear extensions from the 2009-10 offseason worth less than $10MM that proved unnecessary.  The overall point is that teams often don't win by guaranteeing multiyear earnings of arbitration eligible players.  To evaluate extensions this winter, one must estimate the amount of the arbitration savings compared to going year-to-year, and also determine the value of potential free agent seasons.  For non-stars or players with one good year under their belts, year-to-year is usually the way to go.  
• Perhaps the Mauer and Howard contracts demonstrate that letting a star reach or finish his contract year has its benefits, even if it increases the risk of losing the player to free agency.  On the other hand, Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez both currently have three-year commitments worth $60MM or less with their original teams, as opposed to seven or eight-year free agent deals signed this winter in excess of $160MM.

Jorge Posada, Orlando Cabrera, Craig Counsell, and Adam Everett retired this offseason, as MLBTR's free agent tracker shows.  Which other unsigned free agents may be leaning toward calling it a career?

• Milton Bradley: The Mariners released him on May 16th, and we haven't heard anything since aside from off-the-field issues.  I've heard that while he has not retired, as of now it does not look like Bradley will play in 2012.
• J.D. Drew: About a week ago, Jon Heyman wrote that Drew is "very likely to retire."
• Jason Kendall: In July, we learned that Kendall was out of the picture for 2012 after re-tearing two tendons in his right rotator cuff.  Kendall's career might be over, wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe at the time.
• Derrek Lee: This month Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggested a kind of "forced retirement" is possible for Lee, who has reportedly been picky so far this offseason.
• Jason Varitek: The catcher is mulling retirement, wrote Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald this month.
• Javier Vazquez: Reports this month continue to indicate that Vazquez will retire.  The 35-year-old would be finishing on a high note.
• Tim Wakefield: He told John A. Torres of Florida Today that retirement is possible, though the knuckleballer hopes to return to the Red Sox.

When the offseason started, there were approximately 196 arbitration-eligible players left unsigned. The vast majority of those players have since agreed to contracts for 2012 (and beyond in some cases), but a number of high profile players remain unsigned. With some help from our Arbitration Tracker, here are the unsigned arbitration-eligible players asking their teams for at least $5MM next season…

• David Ortiz filed for $16.5MM, the Red Sox countered with $12.65MM.
• Matt Garza filed for $12.5MM, the Cubs countered with $7.95MM.
• Mike Napoli filed for $11.5MM, the Rangers countered with $8.3MM.
• Jeremy Guthrie filed for $10.25MM, the Orioles countered with $7.25MM.
• Clayton Kershaw filed for $10MM, the Dodgers countered with $6.5MM.
• Shaun Marcum filed for $8.7MM, the Brewers countered with $6.75MM.
• Anibal Sanchez filed for $8MM, the Marlins countered with $6.9MM.
• Nelson Cruz filed for $7.5MM, the Rangers countered with $5.5MM.
• Adam Jones filed for $7.4MM, the Orioles countered with $5MM.
• Miguel Montero filed for $6.8MM, the Diamondbacks countered with $5.4MM.
• John Lannan filed for $5.7MM, the Nationals countered with $5MM.
• Alex Gordon filed for $5.45MM, the Royals countered with $4.15MM.
• Asdrubal Cabrera filed for $5.2MM, the Indians countered with $3.75MM.

Garza, Napoli, Kershaw, Jones, Montero, and Gordon and prime candidates for a multi-year extension that buys out both arbitration and free agent years. Hearings will begin next month, though agreements of any size can be reached at any time.

Contract extensions, especially for arbitration eligible players, are all about comparables.  Position and service time are a couple of major factors for which players are often compared.  This kind of research was previously a tall order for those not employed by a team or agency, but MLBTR's new extension tracker removes the hassle.

The extension tracker shows all contract extensions, whether they cover the player's arbitration years, free agent years, or both.   All the extensions are listed by date, and our filter button allows you to change the date range.  You can also filter by any combination of team, position, guaranteed years, amount in millions, number of options, service time, super two status, and agency.  The service time filtering allows you to choose one or both boundaries of a range.  Service time is denoted as years.days, so 4.148 means four years and 148 days.  A full year of service is 172 days.  The player name is hyperlinked to MLBTR's post on the story of the extension.

Please note that some of the data prior to 2011 is still in the process of being added, such as service time, position, and number of options.

The extension tracker can be found under the Tools menu in the navigation bar up top, along with our 2012 free agent tracker, arbitration tracker, agency database,  transaction tracker, and other features.

Arbitration eligible players may not get paid like free agents Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, but the arbitration process can be lucrative, too. Many players have already doubled or tripled their 2011 salaries through arbitration and some of the unsigned arbitration eligible players are set to do the same in the coming weeks, as our Arbitration Tracker shows.

Here’s a list of the 20 arbitration eligible players who will earn the most in 2012. I’ve included 2012 salaries on long-term extensions signed this offseason and listed team submissions for unresolved arbitration cases, since that represents a floor for each player's earnings. Players with six-plus years of service time, such as David Ortiz and Francisco Rodriguez aren’t included. Here’s the list:

1. Tim Lincecum – $18MM (part of an extension)
2. Cole Hamels – $15MM
3. Andre Ethier – $10.95MM
4. Hunter Pence - $10.4MM
5. Matt Kemp – $10MM (part of an extension)
6. Mike Napoli – $8.3MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
7. Jacoby Ellsbury – $8.05MM
8. John Danks – $8MM (part of an extension, including signing bonus)
9. Matt Garza – $7.95MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
10. Russell Martin – $7.5MM
11. Jeremy Guthrie – $7.25MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
12. Carlos Quentin – $7.025MM
13. B.J. Upton – $7MM
14. Anibal Sanchez – $6.9MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
15. Michael Bourn – $6.845MM
16. Delmon Young – $6.75MM
17. Shaun Marcum – $6.75MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
18. Clayton Kershaw – $6.5MM (minimum salary possible via arbitration)
19. James Loney – $6.375MM
20. Melky Cabrera and Juan Carlos Oviedo - $6MM