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Right now DraftStreet has an NFL freeroll for MLB Trade Rumors readers, meaning you can take a shot at a chunk of the $400 prize pool for free, with no strings attached.  Here's how it works.

The NFL freeroll begins Sunday at 1:00pm eastern time, so you have until then to create your team.  You're given a $100K salary cap, and each player is assigned a price by DraftStreet.  Your roster will cover these positions: 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 FLEX, and 1 Defense.  You get points based on how your team performs through Monday night's game.  The teams with the most points get the prize money.  Below is a screenshot of a sample roster: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you're interested, sign up and create a roster prior to Sunday's games (1:00pm eastern time).  It's quick, easy, fun, and the MLBTR league gives you a free chance to win some of the $400 prize pool.  If you enjoy the competition you can try other leagues for free and earn credits, or deposit real money.

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Earlier this season, Mets owner Fred Wilpon explicitly compared the impending free agency of Jose Reyes to the contract that Carl Crawford signed last winter. That seven-year, $142MM deal was supposed to be beyond Reyes' reach.

But as the season has worn on, it has been Crawford who hasn't been worth "Carl Crawford money". The disappointing left fielder has tallied an OPS+ of 86 and just 18 stolen bases entering Monday's games, and so it has become fashionable to declare that general managers and owners will learn from Crawford, an admittedly similar player to Reyes, and avoid a similar payout in both length and worth of contract to Reyes this coming offseason.

This led me to wonder: had owners ever learned from a disastrous free agent deal before? Simply put, had any first-year collapses in performance by one player kept another, similar player from receiving a similar amount of money?

Take Darren Dreifort, for example. Through the 2000 season, the 28-year-old Dreifort had mediocre career totals – an ERA+ of 98 – but posted a 105 ERA+ just prior to hitting free agency. The Dodgers, intent on keeping him, signed Dreifort to a five-year, $55MM contract.

It didn't take long for the deal to look like a loser – Dreifort pitched to an ERA+ of 78 over half of 2001, then missed the rest of that season and the next one with an elbow injury. If the Crawford/Reyes thesis is to be believed, all of baseball shied away from such contracts for pitchers, particularly ones roughly Dreifort's age with a similar track record of success, right?

Not even if we narrow it to Los Angeles' own division. In the winter of 2001, the San Francisco Giants, who had a front row seat for Dreifort's failings, signed Jason Schmidt to a five-year, $41MM contract. Schmidt was 28, the same age as Dreifort, and his career ERA+ was 99 to Dreifort's 98. Even his breakout season was similar, with a 107 ERA+ to Dreifort's 105. That the Schmidt contract worked out far better than Dreifort's is beside the point; the Giants had no way to know that at the time. They simply had Dreifort's celebrated contract in their short-term memory, and did not hesitate to commit to Schmidt for the same duration anyway.

In reality, we can play a similar game with virtually every terrible free agent contract. Vince Coleman, for instance, signed a four-year, $11.95MM contract with the New York Mets prior to the 1991 season. He played in only 72 games during his first season in New York and saw his stolen base total drop from 77 to 37. Nevertheless, Otis Nixon, a speed-reliant player three years older than Coleman, signed with the Braves a year later for three years, $8.1MM.

That lesson didn't take a decade earlier, either. Speedy outfielder Dave Collins, fresh off of a 108 OPS+ age-28 season, signed a three-year, $2.475MM contract with the Yankees to help replace Reggie Jackson prior to the 1982 season. A year later, the Yankees dumped Collins (along with a package of players that included Fred McGriff) on the Blue Jays when he put up an OPS+ of 80 in New York. And yet, even as Collins was getting dumped, the Houston Astros signed Omar Moreno, an inferior player to Collins (also speed-reliant, and a year older than Collins when he signed) to a five-year, $3.5 million contract.

So forgive me if I don't believe that Jose Reyes will receive a lesser payday thanks to the struggles of Carl Crawford. As usual, Reyes' contract will be dictated by the market for players at his position and whether teams with money have a desire for Reyes, not owners and GMs mindful of recent comps that soured. If a team wants Reyes, that team will conclude this situation is different. It wouldn't particularly surprise me if that team even turned out to be the same one that signed Crawford.

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Minor league deals are low-risk propositions for teams; the player must earn every inning or plate appearance.  Here are MLBTR's ten best minor league deals of 2011.

1. Bartolo Colon, Yankees.  He didn't pitch at all in the Majors in 2010, but this year Colon has a 3.33 SIERA in 152 innings.  He's been a major cog in the Yankees' rotation.  Some of his success may be owed to offseason stem cell treatments, which Yankees GM Brian Cashman was not aware of at the time of the signing.
2. Casey Kotchman, Rays.  Kotchman has positioned himself nicely for a Major League deal by hitting .313/.381/.432 in 506 plate appearances and assuming the Rays' regular first base job.  His OBP ranks eighth in the American League.
3. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants.  The least likely All-Star of 2011, Vogelsong ranks fifth in the NL with a 2.66 ERA in 162 1/3 innings.
4. Freddy Garcia, Yankees.  Colon and Garcia have provided the Yankees 280 innings of 3.63 ball.  Baseball's biggest spenders got a ton of bang for their buck on minor league deals this year.
5. Jesus Guzman, Padres.  Playing mostly first base for San Diego, Guzman has mashed to a .320/.377/.493 line, knocking in 42 runs in 247 plate appearances.
6. Endy Chavez, Rangers.  Chavez hadn't appeared in the Majors since tearing his ACL in June of '09, but he's given the Rangers almost 500 innings in center field and a .291/.317/.430 line.
7. Guillermo Mota, Giants.  Mota has provided the Giants 73 1/3 innings with a 3.12 SIERA.  He ranks seventh in baseball in relief innings.
8. Jose Veras, Pirates.  With 67 2/3 innings and a 3.10 SIERA, Veras has been a great find for the Pirates' bullpen.  Plus, he's arbitration eligible.
9. Reed Johnson, Cubs.  Johnson has played all three outfield positions for the Cubs and hasn't shown much of a platoon split in crafting a .325/.361/.496 line in 246 plate appearances. 
10. Jack Hannahan, Indians.  Hannahan's ability to play a capable third base and post a .330 OBP for the Tribe created a lot of value.

Honorable mentions: Dontrelle Willis (extra credit for offense), Jason Giambi, Laynce Nix, Greg Dobbs, Jose Constanza, Shelley Duncan, Aaron Miles, Eric Chavez, Kevin Millwood, Jerome Williams, Cory Wade, Tim Byrdak, Luis Ayala, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, Jason Isringhausen.

Our latest Elias Rankings projections are up, and 26 free agents are in line for Type A status:

Heath Bell
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Robinson Cano
Matt Capps
Francisco Cordero
Michael Cuddyer
Ryan Dempster
Kyle Farnsworth
Prince Fielder
Ramon Hernandez
Ryan Madson
Yadier Molina
Darren Oliver
David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Jonathan Papelbon
Brandon Phillips
Albert Pujols
Jose Reyes
Francisco Rodriguez
C.C. Sabathia
Rafael Soriano
Nick Swisher
Jose Valverde
Josh Willingham

In addition, Vladimir Guerrero, Kelly Johnson, Jimmy Rollins, Omar Infante, Adam Wainwright, Takashi Saito, and Octavio Dotel are near the Type A/B borderline.

The current list of 26 should shrink quite a bit. Options for Cano, Dempster, Farnsworth, Molina, Phillips, Soriano, Swisher, and Valverde are likely to take them off the free agent market.

Of the 18 remaining, not everyone will get an arbitration offer.  Beltran contractually can't be offered, and there's a chance players such as Bell and Hernandez won't receive offers.  It's likely that Capps, Cordero, Oswalt, and Rodriguez will not receive offers either.  That drops the pool to about 11 free agents who would carry the cost of a draft pick.  To sign a star like Fielder, Pujols, Reyes, or Sabathia, that's typically a minor factor.  For the others, it reduces their bargaining power a bit.

Last month, we took a look at the upcoming offseason for the Boras Corporation.  Today I'll take a look at ACES, an agency that ranked eighth overall last offseason but always has a strong record getting multiyear deals and success with veteran free agents who aren't quite star-caliber.

Our agency database shows ACES has around a dozen notable clients eligible for free agency and likely to land big league deals.  They represent a pair of prominent closers in Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell, so it'll be interesting to see how they juggle clients who may share suitors.  However, both closers could re-sign with their current clubs.  Also on the relief front, ACES represents Fernando Rodney, who figures to sign a cheap one-year deal.

The agency has three starters up for free agency, and they're all innings types: Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez, and Jason Marquis.  As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted yesterday, Vazquez has come on strong with a 2.21 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 0.80 HR/9 in his last 16 starts.

Many of ACES' position player clients have seen better days: David DeJesus, Jonny Gomes, Raul Ibanez, and Jorge Posada.  But given his cache, Posada's venture into free agency should be an interesting one.  The agency represents a couple of backups having solid years in Jose Molina and Ramon Santiago; I wouldn't be surprised if they found multiple years for Molina.  The potential big name is Brandon Phillips, who's said it'd be a slap in the face for the Reds to just exercise his $12MM option.

Overall ACES' free agent class isn't as deep as in years past – there is no Joaquin Benoit, John Buck, Marlon Byrd, Chone Figgins, or Placido Polanco on which they can work their magic.  They are pretty well-positioned for future free agents, with Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzalez, Michael Morse, Melky Cabrera, Brandon League, Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla, and Jason Motte heading up their arbitration class.  ACES client Dustin Pedroia is nowhere near his next big contract, but Shane Victorino is signed through 2012 and David Wright potentially through '13.

Last week I predicted upcoming option decisions for all potential free agent position players and starting pitchers.  It's time to finish off the series with a look at 15 relievers.

• Francisco Cordero, Reds: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  The Reds may work out a new contract prior to the option decision coming up in November, but if it gets to that point this will clearly be declined.
• Brad Lidge, Phillies: $12.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout.  Lidge has returned from a rotator cuff strain to post high strikeout and walk rates with an 89 mile per hour fastball.  He'll be an interesting free agent after the option is declined.  
• Joe Nathan, Twins: $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  Nathan is another closer with a big-money option that will be declined, but rumor has it the Twins would like to bring him back.  The 36-year-old had Tommy John surgery in March of 2010.
• Jon Rauch, Blue Jays: $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout.  Between an appendectomy and a knee injury, Rauch's season did not end well.  As a likely Type B free agent an arbitration offer is possible, but I think the option will be declined.
• Rafael Soriano, Yankees: $11MM player option or a $1.5MM buyout.  Soriano is not expected to opt out of his contract, as he'd be leaving huge money on the table.  I suppose there is a tiny chance he'd just want a fresh start and a chance to close somewhere, but it's highly unlikely.  
• Jose Valverde, Tigers: $9MM club option, no buyout.  Valverde's 43-for-43 performance in save opportunities has led to a new franchise record, and it seems very likely the option is exercised.
• Octavio Dotel, Cardinals: $3.75MM club option with a $750K buyout.  There is uncertainty in the Cardinals' bullpen, and Dotel has been excellent in an 18 1/3 inning sample.  I think the Cardinals will exercise the option, but if not they could get a draft pick given Dotel's likely Type B status.
• Kyle Farnsworth, Rays: $3.3MM club option with a $650K buyout.  He's had a strong year as the Rays closer, though his elbow has been barking lately.  Though a draft pick could be had, I see the Rays exercising this option.
• Jason Frasor, White Sox: $3.75MM club option.  Frasor is not necessarily needed in the White Sox bullpen.  But I think someone will value him at this price and the Sox will exercise.
• Chad Qualls, Padres: $6MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout.  Qualls has been useful, but this will be declined.
• Yoshinori Tateyama, Rangers: $1MM club option.  At this price it's an easy decision to exercise.
• Dan Wheeler, Red Sox: $3MM club option with no buyout.  I think getting Wheeler back at the same salary is fair, and the Red Sox will exercise.
• Michael Wuertz, Athletics: $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout.  Walks have been up in another season marred by injuries.  This could go either way but I think the A's will decline.
• Jeremy Affeldt, Giants: $5MM club option with a $500K buyout.  It sounds like the Giants will decline the option if it gets to that point, but they'd like to re-sign him.
• Damaso Marte, Yankees: $4MM club option with a $250K buyout.  Marte ended up earning about $387K per inning on this contract.  The option will be declined.

Last year, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly, and Livan Hernandez signed extensions before hitting free agency.  So far this year, the big name is Chris Carpenter, who will reportedly sit out the free agent market with a two-year deal in hand.  Here are some other impending free agent starters I could see signing before open bidding begins.

• Mark Buehrle, White Sox.  Based on the many reports on this topic, Buehrle's preferences appear to be A) the White Sox B) the Cardinals or C) retirement.  With the Cardinals' rotation looking full, the smart money is on a new deal with Chicago.
• Aaron Harang, Padres.  It's well known that Harang wants to remain in his native San Diego.  I've mentioned that I could see both sides exercising his $5MM mutual option, though the two parties could work something out prior.
• Rich Harden, Athletics.  As I mentioned last week, a one-year deal in the $4.5MM range could work for Harden, who wants to remain in Oakland.
• Livan Hernandez, Nationals.  Hernandez has expressed his desire to stay with the Nationals, and there's be little harm in another $1MM deal.
• Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals.  Wang's strikeout rate this year in eight starts is dangerously low, but there still appears to be something left in the tank post-shoulder surgery.  He wants to return, and may give a discount since he'll have earned $4MM over 2010-11 from the Nats for 50-odd big league innings.  It might be a stretch for the Nationals to sign both Hernandez and Wang to Major League deals though.
• Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers.  Interest in a new contract seems mutual, assuming Kuroda does not return to Japan.  Kuroda, owner of a 3.25 ERA, might be a tough sell at $12MM again for the Dodgers because of raises due to Lilly ($4.5MM), Chad Billingsley ($2.725MM), and Clayton Kershaw (potentially around $6MM).
• Paul Maholm, Pirates.  Maholm's season ended on a sour note with a shoulder injury, but interest in a new contract is mutual and the price might be reasonable.
• Roy Oswalt, Phillies.  Assuming Oswalt's back is up to it and he wants to pitch again, perhaps he'd like to remain in Philly.  Like Carpenter, the option price is too high, but a new deal could be reached.
• Tim Wakefield, Red Sox.  I expect Boston or retirement for Wakefield.  The decision to retire would be presumably be much easier if he gets his 200th win this month.
• This isn't a glamorous bunch, but top pitchers such as C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson could re-sign quickly as well.  Throw in a few extensions from the list above, and the market for free agent starters could be extremely thin.

If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

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