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Option Predictions: Starting Pitchers

By Tim Dierkes | September 7, 2011 at 10:15am CDT

Yesterday I made predictions for the 20 position players with contractual options on the horizon.  Today, it's time to tackle the 10 potential free agent starting pitchers with options this offseason.

  • Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  There's a good case to be made that Carpenter is worth the $14MM net price of this option on a one-year deal.  He might have value to other teams at that price, but given his 10-and-5 rights I can't see the Cardinals exercising the option and then trading Carpenter.  The righty turns 37 in April, but I think the Cards could hammer out a two-year deal at a lower salary.  If they can't pull that off by early November or don't want to commit due to uncertainty around Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman, then I think the option will be declined.
  • Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: $10MM club option for '12, $12MM for '13.  These options must be decided at the same time, and no one expects Wainwright's February Tommy John surgery to prevent the Cardinals from exercising.
  • Aaron Cook, Rockies: $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout.  The Rockies will certainly decline their side.
  • Ryan Dempster, Cubs: $14MM player option, no buyout.  The ball is in Dempster's court, and I think he'll exercise assuming a lower salary multiyear deal isn't agreed to first.
  • Zach Duke, Diamondbacks: $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout.  With Duke moved to the bullpen in July, this will be declined.
  • Jon Garland, Dodgers: $8MM club option with a $500K buyout.  Shoulder surgery officially ended Garland's season in July, and this will be declined.
  • Aaron Harang, Padres: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout.  Harang certainly wants to stay in San Diego, and I'm leaning toward this being one of the rare mutual options that is exercised by both sides.
  • Paul Maholm, Pirates: $9.75MM club option with a $750K buyout.  Maholm's season ended in August with a shoulder strain.  The lefty posted a 3.66 ERA and 4.07 SIERA.  Interest appears mutual in an extension, but even if the shoulder issue is minor I see the Pirates declining this option.
  • Roy Oswalt, Phillies: $16MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout.  A condition of Oswalt's July 2010 trade to the Phillies was that his buyout would not be reduced whether it was the pitcher or the team declining.  Oswalt missed over a month with a back injury this year, and his numbers have been down.  Only Oswalt knows whether and where he'd prefer to pitch next year, but in November I think the Phillies will decline the option.  
  • C.C. Sabathia, Yankees: may opt out of remaining four years, $92MM.  There appears to be little doubt Sabathia will opt out.  The Yankees are still viewed as the favorite to sign him, but we don't know how much work needs to be done to find common ground.
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Option Predictions: Position Players

By Tim Dierkes | September 6, 2011 at 11:10am CDT

20 position players face contractual options; the deadline is typically three days after the World Series.  About 14% of the regular season remains, but let's make some predictions.

  • Ryan Doumit, Pirates: $7.25MM club option for 2012, $8.25MM club option for '13 with a $500K buyout.  These options must be decided in tandem after this season, and despite Doumit's production when he's been healthy this year it's highly likely they'll be declined.
  • Chris Snyder, Pirates: $6.75MM club option with a $750K buyout.  Snyder has missed most of the season due to back surgery, so this will be declined.
  • Yadier Molina, Cardinals: $7MM club option with a $750K buyout.  This one is a lock to be exercised.  Before the 2012 season begins, the Cardinals will have to discuss Molina's next contract.
  • Kelly Shoppach, Rays: $3.2MM club option with a $300K buyout.  Shoppach has had a rough year, and this is likely to be declined.
  • Eric Hinske, Braves: $1.5MM club option with a $100K buyout.  Hinske has performed about as expected, so I think this will be exercised.
  • Willie Bloomquist, Diamondbacks: $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout.  Rarely do we see both sides of a mutual option exercised, so I'll go with declined here.
  • Robinson Cano, Yankees: $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  This will surely be exercised, and his $15MM option for 2013 is looking good too.
  • Bill Hall, Giants: $4MM mutual option with a $250K buyout.  Not only is this option mutual, but it's kind of an automatic decline since Hall was released by the Astros and later designated for assignment by the Giants.
  • Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks: $8MM club option for 2012, $8MM club option for '13.  I don't think Hill's hot hitting with Arizona is enough to keep these from being declined.
  • Brandon Phillips, Reds: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  It sounds like this option will be exercised if an extension can't be worked out, which Phillips would consider a "slap in my face."  Yes, a $12MM slap in the face.
  • Yuniesky Betancourt, Brewers: $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  This one is certain to be declined.
  • Ronny Cedeno, Pirates: $3MM club option with a $200K buyout.  I expect Cedeno's option to be declined, as the Pirates aim to upgrade at shortstop.
  • Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout.  This is an easy choice to decline, though both sides have mutual interest in a new deal.
  • Marco Scutaro, Red Sox: $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout.  This is a tough one.  I think the Red Sox will decline their side of it, and it's possible Scutaro can do a little better and will decline as well.
  • Casey Blake, Dodgers: $6MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout.  This will certainly be declined.
  • Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays: $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout.  I agree with MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith; this will be exercised.
  • Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: $16MM mutual option.  If club declines, Ramirez receives a $2MM buyout.  If club exercises and Ramirez declines, he does not receive a buyout.  Ramirez has had a strong year, and there's a case for the Cubs to exercise their side since it keeps him on a one-year deal, the team has some money to spend, and the free agent market offers nothing else.  I think if the Cubs exercise at that slightly inflated price, Ramirez will not void, despite his desire for a multiyear deal.  Ultimately I think in November the club will decline though, and then the two sides will discuss a possible new contract.
  • Nate McLouth, Braves: $10.65MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout.  Certain to be declined.
  • Grady Sizemore, Indians: $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout.  Sizemore's final month should be a big factor here, but I think this will be exercised.
  • Nick Swisher, Yankees: $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  This one is an easy choice to exercise.
  • I've got 13 position players option being declined, with seven being exercised.
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The Top Free Agent At Each Position

By Tim Dierkes | September 5, 2011 at 7:54am CDT

You can survey our free agent list for the upcoming offseason here.  Today let's attempt to determine the best as each position.

  • Catcher: Yadier Molina's option will be exercised, leaving Ramon Hernandez as the best available.  Hernandez hasn't played in 100 games since '08, but he still easily tops a list of mostly backups at the position.
  • First base: Prince Fielder has drawn more walks this year, but I still have to give the nod to Albert Pujols.  Pujols began the year with a couple off of months and injured his wrist in June, but he's still among the game's best players.
  • Second base: Robinson Cano's option will be exercised, and Brandon Phillips appears likely.  Despite a lousy offensive year, Kelly Johnson might be the best second baseman standing.
  • Shortstop: I like Jimmy Rollins, but I don't think you can argue for anyone other than Jose Reyes.
  • Third base:  The market for third basemen is terrible, but Aramis Ramirez remains a quality option.
  • Left field: There's not much here, but Josh Willingham continues to display good power in a tough ballpark.
  • Center field: His season hasn't been amazing, but Coco Crisp looks like the best available.  I might prefer Grady Sizemore, but I think his option will be picked up.
  • Right field: This is a position with significant free agent talent: Lance Berkman, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Carlos Beltran, even after Nick Swisher's option is exercised.  This is a tough call, but I'll take Beltran.  Berkman and Cuddyer could potentially enter the mix for other positions, if they're flexible on that front.
  • Designated hitter: David Ortiz is the clear choice here.
  • Starting pitcher: C.J. Wilson may represent better value, but C.C. Sabathia will be the best available starting pitcher if he opts out of his Yankees contract.  If Sabathia re-ups quickly then Wilson would have the honors, unless Yu Darvish mounts a challenge.
  • Closer: With all due respect to Ryan Madson, Jonathan Papelbon is the man here.
  • Right-handed setup man: I expect Madson to continue closing, leaving our setup bracket wide open.  Joel Peralta is a respectable choice, while Kerry Wood and others also merit consideration.
  • Lefty reliever: Tim Byrdak, Mike Gonzalez, and George Sherrill have been tough on fellow lefties, but Darren Oliver is my pick.
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1993: The Year September Trades Mattered

By Howard Megdal | September 2, 2011 at 1:29pm CDT

My colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith pointed out, rightly, that September trades haven't amounted to much in the past decade. But there was a glorious summer-turned-fall for trades back in 1993. As Yasir Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin shook hands on the White House lawn, seemingly ending Middle Eastern conflict, Major League teams came together to help one another through the season's final month.

Sure, everyone knew that these relationships were as transitory as a momentary coupling with a beautiful stranger you meet on a cruise. But let's revisit the brief, sweet memories that resulted.

On September 1, the Chicago White Sox traded reliever Donn Pall to the Philadelphia Phillies for catcher Doug Lindsey. Though the Phillies held a 9.5 game lead over the Montreal Expos on September 1, a thin bullpen needed reinforcements. Pall certainly provided quality innings for Philadelphia, pitching to a 2.55 ERA over 17 2/3 innings. The hard-charging Expos managed to cut that lead to three games by season's end, foreshadowing further improvement the following season. Were Pall's innings the difference between winning and losing the division? Perhaps not, but they helped provide insurance for a closer-than-expected finish.

A week later, the Baltimore Orioles found themselves in a surprisingly strong position. Down six games in the AL East as September began, Baltimore had rallied to within a game of the first-place Blue Jays. Needing a hitter to help them with the stretch run, the Orioles sent minor leaguers Stanton Cameron and Terry Farrar to Pittsburgh for outfielder Lonnie Smith. For Smith, the chance to play left field and designated hitter on a contending team one last time helped spark him to a 139 OPS+ with Baltimore in 32 plate appearances. Though the Orioles faded, Lonnie Smith certainly didn't.

The significant dealing still wasn't finished, even when the month was more than half over. On September 17, the Texas Rangers trailed the AL West-leading White Sox by just 4.5 games. In an effort to bolster the team's offense, Texas traded minor leaguer Dave Gandolph to the Houston Astros for outfielder Chris James. The move paid dividends immediately, with James homering twice in his very first game with Texas. He went on to hit .355/.412/.677 in 34 plate appearances. Though Texas fell short of division title, James provided 0.7 WAR – an amazing total for someone on the active roster for a total of 15 days.

That same day, the Yankees, fading from the AL East race, decided to add another arm to a young, tiring starting rotation. Though the Phillies also had interest in Frank Tanana – after all, Donn Pall can't win pennants all by himself – the Yankees managed to snag Tanana from the crosstown Mets for reliever Kenny Greer. The once-great strikeout pitcher still knew how to get hitters out with junk at age 40. Though he failed to win his three starts with the Yankees, he pitched into the seventh inning all three times, posting a quality start in each outing. The Yankees failed to catch the Blue Jays, But Tanana's 19 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA pitching certainly helped keep things close.

Will history repeat itself? Perhaps Chris Capuano will go across town to a contending Yankees team? Maybe the White Sox will send Jesse Crain to the Phillies? No matter how late it gets, don't assume the deals won't have an impact. After all, you'll never forget that night at sea, no matter how brief the interlude.

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Players Traded In September

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 1, 2011 at 10:35am CDT

Let's face it – September trades are generally more complicated and less significant than the deals we see most months of the year. Players traded in September can help their teams reach the playoffs, but they can't play in postseason games. Here's a look at some current MLB players who have been involved in September trades since 2000:

  • Octavio Dotel, 2010 - Dotel, a veteran of midseason trades, pitched 5 1/3 innings for Colorado after they acquired him from the Dodgers in September.
  • Willie Bloomquist, 2010 - Bloomquist played three positions for the Reds last September, contributing five singles and a walk in 18 plate appearances.
  • Micah Owings, 2008 - The Reds acquired Owings in the Adam Dunn deal, but he didn't pitch particularly well with Cincinnati. He does own an .808 OPS in 72 plate appearances for the Reds, though.
  • Sean Rodriguez, 2009 - Rodriguez, the player to be named in the Scott Kazmir deal, has a .218/.311/.354 line with the Rays as a utility player this year.
  • George Kottaras, 2006 - The Padres sent Kottaras to Boston for David Wells five years ago this month.
  • Jason Frasor, 2002 - Frasor hadn't appeared in an MLB game when the Tigers sent him to the Dodgers in 2002.
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The Closer Carousel

By Tim Dierkes | August 31, 2011 at 9:48am CDT

Teams pay a premium for saves; it's how Rafael Soriano was able to get a three-year, $35MM contract last offseason.  Impending free agents who have picked up at least five saves this year: Jose Valverde (club option), Heath Bell, Francisco Cordero (club option), Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Madson, Francisco Rodriguez, Kyle Farnsworth (club option), Matt Capps, Joe Nathan (club option), Jon Rauch (club option), Frank Francisco, Jason Isringhausen, and Jonathan Broxton.  Brad Lidge is another consideration, though he has a ways to go.  Options for Valverde and Farnsworth could be exercised and several more will likely be content to set up, but we're left with a minimum of five relievers who will expect to close next year.  They won't get to choose their role, but trade candidates such as Brandon League, Leo Nunez, or Huston Street could enter the picture as well.

As many as 16 teams may be in the market for a closer in the offseason to varying degrees:

  • Orioles: I'm not sure the team's new GM will want to throw good money after bad, but Kevin Gregg is the worst reliever holding a closer job currently.
  • Red Sox: They could re-sign Papelbon, though Daniel Bard certainly appears ready.
  • Blue Jays: Jason Frasor and Octavio Dotel are gone, while Shawn Camp, Rauch, and Francisco are eligible for free agency.  Perhaps the Jays will bring several relievers in on one-year deals again, and/or pick up Rauch's option.
  • Tigers: They could save $9MM by declining Valverde's option, allowing them to use Joaquin Benoit in the ninth or sign someone cheaper.
  • Twins: With Capps and Nathan up for free agency, Glen Perkins could get the job.  Or, Nathan could be re-signed at a much lower rate or they could see who else is out there.
  • Mariners: David Aardsma figures to miss most of 2012, so League may be needed again.  Otherwise, the Mariners could flip League at his peak value and bring in someone else.
  • Marlins: The Marlins reportedly intend to retain Nunez as next year's closer, but they could change their mind and put him on the market.
  • Mets: Bobby Parnell has the early line on the job, but they could bring in someone more seasoned to take on an Isringhausen-type role.
  • Phillies: I expect a legitimate attempt to re-sign Madson.  Antonio Bastardo might be capable of stepping in if that fails, but the Phillies figure to be in the market for a veteran closer.
  • Reds: Cordero's option is certain to be declined, so the question becomes whether to use Aroldis Chapman as a closer or starter.
  • Astros: I wouldn't expect them to sign Papelbon, but an experienced reliever would make sense even if Mark Melancon retains the job.
  • Cardinals: They can make it work with Fernando Salas, Jason Motte, and others, and may need to skimp given the big names they have up for free agency.
  • Rockies: They could save money by moving Street and using Rafael Betancourt or others.
  • Dodgers: There's no reason not to stick with Javy Guerra, and Kenley Jansen has closer potential as well.  Matt Guerrier is around to fill the veteran reliever role, so they might not be in the closer market.
  • Padres: If they don't figure something out with Bell, I'd expect a cheap veteran signing or two.  It'd be a dream opportunity for most relievers.
  • Giants: Depending on how Brian Wilson's elbow soreness turns out, they could be in the market.

Certainly there are enough closer jobs to go around, though I don't see too many teams likely to join a high-end bidding war for Papelbon or Madson.

If you enjoy following all things closer-related for your fantasy team, check out CloserNews on Twitter as well as the website.

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Reverse Standings

By Tim Dierkes | August 30, 2011 at 12:51pm CDT

The Astros have a firm hold on the top spot, while the Orioles, Royals, Twins, Mariners, and Cubs are battling for second place.  Is this Bizarro World Baseball?  No, it's MLBTR's reverse standings!

Currently, fans for about 60% of MLB clubs are thinking about next year.  Our reverse standings are the perfect way to follow the action, as teams vie for the for the best draft picks in June of 2012 by losing the most games in 2011.  The standings will be updated every morning through the end of the season, and even calculate tiebreakers by looking at last year's standings.  You will always be able to find the link under MLBTR Features in the righthand sidebar.

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Limited Free Agent Market For Bats

By Tim Dierkes | August 23, 2011 at 11:10am CDT

Teams looking to add offense this offseason will face limited options.   A look at the ten available middle-of-the-order type bats:

  • Lance Berkman, 1B/OF: By most measures, Berkman has been one of the ten best offensive players in baseball this year at age 35.  He's played in 87% of the Cardinals' games and has been consistently productive.  He's got a list of three or four teams, headed by the Cards, and would consider retirement if he's "not thrilled with the opportunities."  Though a multiyear deal would likely be available, Berkman is fine with another one-year contract.  I have to imagine he'll get $12MM or more.
  • David Ortiz, DH: Ortiz, who turns 36 in November, has been nearly as good as Berkman, and he's handled lefties well.  Reportedly the Red Sox have yet to discuss a new deal with him.  It's not clear how adamant each side will be about their stance on a multiyear contract.  But the general expectation is that Ortiz returns to Boston.
  • Prince Fielder, 1B: Most expect Fielder to look for Mark Teixeira money or beyond, though yesterday I was able to come up with reasons each of the 30 teams might balk at signing him.  He'll land somewhere, but Scott Boras may need a team to bid against itself to reach Teixeira heights.
  • Albert Pujols, 1B: Pujols now leads the National League with 31 home runs, so his off year is relative.  His walk rate is down significantly though, which could give some teams pause before making one of the ten largest commitments in baseball history, if not one of the three biggest.  The Cardinals have first crack at signing him, and there's a good chance they get something done.
  • Carlos Beltran, RF: Beltran has been healthy and effective this year, outside of a DL stint for a strained hand shortly after his trade to the Giants.  A strong finish could result in a three-year deal, though Beltran does turn 35 in April.  He figures to get more than $10MM per year.
  • Michael Cuddyer, RF/1B: Cuddyer has alternated good and mediocre seasons, a trend his agent will have to downplay since this is one of the good years.  Cuddyer, 33 in March, should get a three-year deal with a salary similar to this year's $10.5MM.
  • Aramis Ramirez, 3B: Ramirez should benefit from being the only viable starting option at third base on the market.  He was headed toward a possible extension with the Cubs, but with Jim Hendry being fired he's going to take a step back and see what's out there.  His $16MM option is mutual in nature.  The 33-year-old should be able to secure a deal similar to my Cuddyer estimate, maybe better.
  • Josh Willingham, LF: Willingham, 32, started out slow for the Athletics but has a .277/.374/.606 line with 12 home runs in 163 plate appearances since July 1st.  Injuries have made him something of a 120 game guy, so a two-year deal for around $16MM seems feasible.  Willingham projects as a Type A free agent, and seems like someone who might accept arbitration if the A's offer.
  • Jason Kubel, RF/DH: At 29, Kubel has age on his side compared to most free agents.  He missed almost two months with a foot injury this year but previously had been durable.  He could be a popular free agent, with four years possible, but his stock will be hurt if he climbs to Type A status and turns down an arbitration offer from the Twins, thereby costing his new team a draft pick.
  • Carlos Pena, 1B: Pena, 33, has been aided slightly by his first crack at the National League.  He's a useful hitter, but a two-year deal at $10MM plus is a tough sell even for Scott Boras for a perennial .200 hitter.

There are other free agents – Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are difference-makers and Casey Kotchman is having a nice year – but the middle-of-the-order bat market boils down to the ten I named above.  Berkman, Ortiz, Fielder, and Pujols all have limited markets due to preference, price tag, or in Ortiz's case, the fact that he can't play the field.  It's a good time to be Beltran, Cuddyer, Ramirez, Willingham, Kubel, Pena, or Kotchman.  Surprises are possible, but the trade market offers little beyond perhaps Carlos Quentin.

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Team Facebook/Twitter/RSS

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | August 19, 2011 at 10:10am CDT

If you prefer your MLBTR fix limited to only your favorite team, we've got you covered.  Below are links to our team Facebook, Twitter, and RSS pages and feeds.

AL East

  • Orioles: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Red Sox: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Yankees: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Rays: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Blue Jays: Facebook / Twitter / RSS

AL Central

  • White Sox: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Indians: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Tigers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Royals: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Twins: Facebook / Twitter / RSS

AL West

  • Angels: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Athletics: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Mariners: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Rangers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS

NL East

  • Braves: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Marlins: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Mets: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Phillies: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Nationals: Facebook / Twitter / RSS

NL Central

  • Cubs: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Reds: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Astros: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Brewers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Pirates: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Cardinals: Facebook / Twitter / RSS

NL West

  • Diamondbacks: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Rockies: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Dodgers: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Padres: Facebook / Twitter / RSS
  • Giants: Facebook / Twitter / RSS

Transactions only: Twitter / RSS

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Free $400 Fantasy Baseball Contest (Sponsored Post)

By Tim Dierkes | August 18, 2011 at 11:00pm CDT

Looking to flex your fantasy baseball genius on a single night?  Try DraftStreet, where you can put together a new fantasy team every night and compete against other users for real money.

Right now DraftStreet has a freeroll for MLB Trade Rumors readers, meaning you can take a shot at a chunk of the $400 prize pool for free, with no strings attached.  Here's how it works.

The MLBTR freeroll is for Friday night's games (the Cubs-Cardinals game at 1:20 is not included), so you have until then to create your team.  You're given a $100K salary cap, and each player is assigned a price by DraftStreet.  For Friday, Felix Hernandez is considered the most valuable player since he starts against the Rays, but he'll cost you over $15K.  Your roster will cover these positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 utility, 2 SP, 1 RP, 1 P and 2 Reserves (14 starters).  You get points based on how your team performs Friday.  For example, you'll get 0.75 points for each strikeout Felix racks up and 1.5 points if he gets the win.  The teams with the most points get the prize money.  You can apply all kinds of strategy in building your roster – for example, check out the chance of rain at Citi Field Friday before you decide to add Brewers and Mets players.  Below I've taken a screenshot of my roster: 

Draftstreet

If you're interested, sign up and create a roster prior to Friday's night games (6:05pm central time).  It's quick, easy, fun, and the MLBTR league gives you a free chance to win some of the $400 prize pool.  If you enjoy the competition you can try other leagues for free and earn credits, or deposit real money.

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    Rangers Notes: Coaches, Offense, Eovaldi, Bradford

    Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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