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Minor league deals are low-risk propositions for teams; the player must earn every inning or plate appearance.  Here are MLBTR's ten best minor league deals of 2011.

1. Bartolo Colon, Yankees.  He didn't pitch at all in the Majors in 2010, but this year Colon has a 3.33 SIERA in 152 innings.  He's been a major cog in the Yankees' rotation.  Some of his success may be owed to offseason stem cell treatments, which Yankees GM Brian Cashman was not aware of at the time of the signing.
2. Casey Kotchman, Rays.  Kotchman has positioned himself nicely for a Major League deal by hitting .313/.381/.432 in 506 plate appearances and assuming the Rays' regular first base job.  His OBP ranks eighth in the American League.
3. Ryan Vogelsong, Giants.  The least likely All-Star of 2011, Vogelsong ranks fifth in the NL with a 2.66 ERA in 162 1/3 innings.
4. Freddy Garcia, Yankees.  Colon and Garcia have provided the Yankees 280 innings of 3.63 ball.  Baseball's biggest spenders got a ton of bang for their buck on minor league deals this year.
5. Jesus Guzman, Padres.  Playing mostly first base for San Diego, Guzman has mashed to a .320/.377/.493 line, knocking in 42 runs in 247 plate appearances.
6. Endy Chavez, Rangers.  Chavez hadn't appeared in the Majors since tearing his ACL in June of '09, but he's given the Rangers almost 500 innings in center field and a .291/.317/.430 line.
7. Guillermo Mota, Giants.  Mota has provided the Giants 73 1/3 innings with a 3.12 SIERA.  He ranks seventh in baseball in relief innings.
8. Jose Veras, Pirates.  With 67 2/3 innings and a 3.10 SIERA, Veras has been a great find for the Pirates' bullpen.  Plus, he's arbitration eligible.
9. Reed Johnson, Cubs.  Johnson has played all three outfield positions for the Cubs and hasn't shown much of a platoon split in crafting a .325/.361/.496 line in 246 plate appearances. 
10. Jack Hannahan, Indians.  Hannahan's ability to play a capable third base and post a .330 OBP for the Tribe created a lot of value.

Honorable mentions: Dontrelle Willis (extra credit for offense), Jason Giambi, Laynce Nix, Greg Dobbs, Jose Constanza, Shelley Duncan, Aaron Miles, Eric Chavez, Kevin Millwood, Jerome Williams, Cory Wade, Tim Byrdak, Luis Ayala, Mike MacDougal, Jamey Wright, Jason Isringhausen.

Our latest Elias Rankings projections are up, and 26 free agents are in line for Type A status:

Heath Bell
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Robinson Cano
Matt Capps
Francisco Cordero
Michael Cuddyer
Ryan Dempster
Kyle Farnsworth
Prince Fielder
Ramon Hernandez
Ryan Madson
Yadier Molina
Darren Oliver
David Ortiz
Roy Oswalt
Jonathan Papelbon
Brandon Phillips
Albert Pujols
Jose Reyes
Francisco Rodriguez
C.C. Sabathia
Rafael Soriano
Nick Swisher
Jose Valverde
Josh Willingham

In addition, Vladimir Guerrero, Kelly Johnson, Jimmy Rollins, Omar Infante, Adam Wainwright, Takashi Saito, and Octavio Dotel are near the Type A/B borderline.

The current list of 26 should shrink quite a bit. Options for Cano, Dempster, Farnsworth, Molina, Phillips, Soriano, Swisher, and Valverde are likely to take them off the free agent market.

Of the 18 remaining, not everyone will get an arbitration offer.  Beltran contractually can't be offered, and there's a chance players such as Bell and Hernandez won't receive offers.  It's likely that Capps, Cordero, Oswalt, and Rodriguez will not receive offers either.  That drops the pool to about 11 free agents who would carry the cost of a draft pick.  To sign a star like Fielder, Pujols, Reyes, or Sabathia, that's typically a minor factor.  For the others, it reduces their bargaining power a bit.

Last month, we took a look at the upcoming offseason for the Boras Corporation.  Today I'll take a look at ACES, an agency that ranked eighth overall last offseason but always has a strong record getting multiyear deals and success with veteran free agents who aren't quite star-caliber.

Our agency database shows ACES has around a dozen notable clients eligible for free agency and likely to land big league deals.  They represent a pair of prominent closers in Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell, so it'll be interesting to see how they juggle clients who may share suitors.  However, both closers could re-sign with their current clubs.  Also on the relief front, ACES represents Fernando Rodney, who figures to sign a cheap one-year deal.

The agency has three starters up for free agency, and they're all innings types: Aaron Harang, Javier Vazquez, and Jason Marquis.  As MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith noted yesterday, Vazquez has come on strong with a 2.21 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 0.80 HR/9 in his last 16 starts.

Many of ACES' position player clients have seen better days: David DeJesus, Jonny Gomes, Raul Ibanez, and Jorge Posada.  But given his cache, Posada's venture into free agency should be an interesting one.  The agency represents a couple of backups having solid years in Jose Molina and Ramon Santiago; I wouldn't be surprised if they found multiple years for Molina.  The potential big name is Brandon Phillips, who's said it'd be a slap in the face for the Reds to just exercise his $12MM option.

Overall ACES' free agent class isn't as deep as in years past – there is no Joaquin Benoit, John Buck, Marlon Byrd, Chone Figgins, or Placido Polanco on which they can work their magic.  They are pretty well-positioned for future free agents, with Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzalez, Michael Morse, Melky Cabrera, Brandon League, Ramon Ramirez, Santiago Casilla, and Jason Motte heading up their arbitration class.  ACES client Dustin Pedroia is nowhere near his next big contract, but Shane Victorino is signed through 2012 and David Wright potentially through '13.

Last week I predicted upcoming option decisions for all potential free agent position players and starting pitchers.  It's time to finish off the series with a look at 15 relievers.

• Francisco Cordero, Reds: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  The Reds may work out a new contract prior to the option decision coming up in November, but if it gets to that point this will clearly be declined.
• Brad Lidge, Phillies: $12.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout.  Lidge has returned from a rotator cuff strain to post high strikeout and walk rates with an 89 mile per hour fastball.  He'll be an interesting free agent after the option is declined.  
• Joe Nathan, Twins: $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  Nathan is another closer with a big-money option that will be declined, but rumor has it the Twins would like to bring him back.  The 36-year-old had Tommy John surgery in March of 2010.
• Jon Rauch, Blue Jays: $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout.  Between an appendectomy and a knee injury, Rauch's season did not end well.  As a likely Type B free agent an arbitration offer is possible, but I think the option will be declined.
• Rafael Soriano, Yankees: $11MM player option or a $1.5MM buyout.  Soriano is not expected to opt out of his contract, as he'd be leaving huge money on the table.  I suppose there is a tiny chance he'd just want a fresh start and a chance to close somewhere, but it's highly unlikely.  
• Jose Valverde, Tigers: $9MM club option, no buyout.  Valverde's 43-for-43 performance in save opportunities has led to a new franchise record, and it seems very likely the option is exercised.
• Octavio Dotel, Cardinals: $3.75MM club option with a $750K buyout.  There is uncertainty in the Cardinals' bullpen, and Dotel has been excellent in an 18 1/3 inning sample.  I think the Cardinals will exercise the option, but if not they could get a draft pick given Dotel's likely Type B status.
• Kyle Farnsworth, Rays: $3.3MM club option with a $650K buyout.  He's had a strong year as the Rays closer, though his elbow has been barking lately.  Though a draft pick could be had, I see the Rays exercising this option.
• Jason Frasor, White Sox: $3.75MM club option.  Frasor is not necessarily needed in the White Sox bullpen.  But I think someone will value him at this price and the Sox will exercise.
• Chad Qualls, Padres: $6MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout.  Qualls has been useful, but this will be declined.
• Yoshinori Tateyama, Rangers: $1MM club option.  At this price it's an easy decision to exercise.
• Dan Wheeler, Red Sox: $3MM club option with no buyout.  I think getting Wheeler back at the same salary is fair, and the Red Sox will exercise.
• Michael Wuertz, Athletics: $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout.  Walks have been up in another season marred by injuries.  This could go either way but I think the A's will decline.
• Jeremy Affeldt, Giants: $5MM club option with a $500K buyout.  It sounds like the Giants will decline the option if it gets to that point, but they'd like to re-sign him.
• Damaso Marte, Yankees: $4MM club option with a $250K buyout.  Marte ended up earning about $387K per inning on this contract.  The option will be declined.

Last year, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly, and Livan Hernandez signed extensions before hitting free agency.  So far this year, the big name is Chris Carpenter, who will reportedly sit out the free agent market with a two-year deal in hand.  Here are some other impending free agent starters I could see signing before open bidding begins.

• Mark Buehrle, White Sox.  Based on the many reports on this topic, Buehrle's preferences appear to be A) the White Sox B) the Cardinals or C) retirement.  With the Cardinals' rotation looking full, the smart money is on a new deal with Chicago.
• Aaron Harang, Padres.  It's well known that Harang wants to remain in his native San Diego.  I've mentioned that I could see both sides exercising his $5MM mutual option, though the two parties could work something out prior.
• Rich Harden, Athletics.  As I mentioned last week, a one-year deal in the $4.5MM range could work for Harden, who wants to remain in Oakland.
• Livan Hernandez, Nationals.  Hernandez has expressed his desire to stay with the Nationals, and there's be little harm in another $1MM deal.
• Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals.  Wang's strikeout rate this year in eight starts is dangerously low, but there still appears to be something left in the tank post-shoulder surgery.  He wants to return, and may give a discount since he'll have earned $4MM over 2010-11 from the Nats for 50-odd big league innings.  It might be a stretch for the Nationals to sign both Hernandez and Wang to Major League deals though.
• Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers.  Interest in a new contract seems mutual, assuming Kuroda does not return to Japan.  Kuroda, owner of a 3.25 ERA, might be a tough sell at $12MM again for the Dodgers because of raises due to Lilly ($4.5MM), Chad Billingsley ($2.725MM), and Clayton Kershaw (potentially around $6MM).
• Paul Maholm, Pirates.  Maholm's season ended on a sour note with a shoulder injury, but interest in a new contract is mutual and the price might be reasonable.
• Roy Oswalt, Phillies.  Assuming Oswalt's back is up to it and he wants to pitch again, perhaps he'd like to remain in Philly.  Like Carpenter, the option price is too high, but a new deal could be reached.
• Tim Wakefield, Red Sox.  I expect Boston or retirement for Wakefield.  The decision to retire would be presumably be much easier if he gets his 200th win this month.
• This isn't a glamorous bunch, but top pitchers such as C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson could re-sign quickly as well.  Throw in a few extensions from the list above, and the market for free agent starters could be extremely thin.

If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

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Yesterday I made predictions for the 20 position players with contractual options on the horizon.  Today, it's time to tackle the 10 potential free agent starting pitchers with options this offseason.

• Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  There's a good case to be made that Carpenter is worth the $14MM net price of this option on a one-year deal.  He might have value to other teams at that price, but given his 10-and-5 rights I can't see the Cardinals exercising the option and then trading Carpenter.  The righty turns 37 in April, but I think the Cards could hammer out a two-year deal at a lower salary.  If they can't pull that off by early November or don't want to commit due to uncertainty around Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman, then I think the option will be declined.
• Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: $10MM club option for '12, $12MM for '13.  These options must be decided at the same time, and no one expects Wainwright's February Tommy John surgery to prevent the Cardinals from exercising.
• Aaron Cook, Rockies: $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout.  The Rockies will certainly decline their side.
• Ryan Dempster, Cubs: $14MM player option, no buyout.  The ball is in Dempster's court, and I think he'll exercise assuming a lower salary multiyear deal isn't agreed to first.
• Zach Duke, Diamondbacks: $5.5MM club option with a $750K buyout.  With Duke moved to the bullpen in July, this will be declined.
• Jon Garland, Dodgers: $8MM club option with a $500K buyout.  Shoulder surgery officially ended Garland's season in July, and this will be declined.
• Aaron Harang, Padres: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout.  Harang certainly wants to stay in San Diego, and I'm leaning toward this being one of the rare mutual options that is exercised by both sides.
• Paul Maholm, Pirates: $9.75MM club option with a $750K buyout.  Maholm's season ended in August with a shoulder strain.  The lefty posted a 3.66 ERA and 4.07 SIERA.  Interest appears mutual in an extension, but even if the shoulder issue is minor I see the Pirates declining this option.
• Roy Oswalt, Phillies: $16MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout.  A condition of Oswalt's July 2010 trade to the Phillies was that his buyout would not be reduced whether it was the pitcher or the team declining.  Oswalt missed over a month with a back injury this year, and his numbers have been down.  Only Oswalt knows whether and where he'd prefer to pitch next year, but in November I think the Phillies will decline the option.  
• C.C. Sabathia, Yankees: may opt out of remaining four years, $92MM.  There appears to be little doubt Sabathia will opt out.  The Yankees are still viewed as the favorite to sign him, but we don't know how much work needs to be done to find common ground.

20 position players face contractual options; the deadline is typically three days after the World Series.  About 14% of the regular season remains, but let's make some predictions.

• Ryan Doumit, Pirates: $7.25MM club option for 2012, $8.25MM club option for '13 with a $500K buyout.  These options must be decided in tandem after this season, and despite Doumit's production when he's been healthy this year it's highly likely they'll be declined.
• Chris Snyder, Pirates: $6.75MM club option with a $750K buyout.  Snyder has missed most of the season due to back surgery, so this will be declined.
• Yadier Molina, Cardinals: $7MM club option with a $750K buyout.  This one is a lock to be exercised.  Before the 2012 season begins, the Cardinals will have to discuss Molina's next contract.
• Kelly Shoppach, Rays: $3.2MM club option with a $300K buyout.  Shoppach has had a rough year, and this is likely to be declined.
• Eric Hinske, Braves: $1.5MM club option with a $100K buyout.  Hinske has performed about as expected, so I think this will be exercised.
• Willie Bloomquist, Diamondbacks: $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout.  Rarely do we see both sides of a mutual option exercised, so I'll go with declined here.
• Robinson Cano, Yankees: $14MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  This will surely be exercised, and his $15MM option for 2013 is looking good too.
• Bill Hall, Giants: $4MM mutual option with a $250K buyout.  Not only is this option mutual, but it's kind of an automatic decline since Hall was released by the Astros and later designated for assignment by the Giants.
• Aaron Hill, Diamondbacks: $8MM club option for 2012, $8MM club option for '13.  I don't think Hill's hot hitting with Arizona is enough to keep these from being declined.
• Brandon Phillips, Reds: $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  It sounds like this option will be exercised if an extension can't be worked out, which Phillips would consider a "slap in my face."  Yes, a $12MM slap in the face.
• Yuniesky Betancourt, Brewers: $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  This one is certain to be declined.
• Ronny Cedeno, Pirates: $3MM club option with a $200K buyout.  I expect Cedeno's option to be declined, as the Pirates aim to upgrade at shortstop.
• Rafael Furcal, Cardinals: $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout.  This is an easy choice to decline, though both sides have mutual interest in a new deal.
• Marco Scutaro, Red Sox: $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout.  This is a tough one.  I think the Red Sox will decline their side of it, and it's possible Scutaro can do a little better and will decline as well.
• Casey Blake, Dodgers: $6MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout.  This will certainly be declined.
• Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays: $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout.  I agree with MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith; this will be exercised.
• Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: $16MM mutual option.  If club declines, Ramirez receives a $2MM buyout.  If club exercises and Ramirez declines, he does not receive a buyout.  Ramirez has had a strong year, and there's a case for the Cubs to exercise their side since it keeps him on a one-year deal, the team has some money to spend, and the free agent market offers nothing else.  I think if the Cubs exercise at that slightly inflated price, Ramirez will not void, despite his desire for a multiyear deal.  Ultimately I think in November the club will decline though, and then the two sides will discuss a possible new contract.
  
• Nate McLouth, Braves: $10.65MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout.  Certain to be declined.
• Grady Sizemore, Indians: $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout.  Sizemore's final month should be a big factor here, but I think this will be exercised.
• Nick Swisher, Yankees: $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  This one is an easy choice to exercise.
• I've got 13 position players option being declined, with seven being exercised.

You can survey our free agent list for the upcoming offseason here.  Today let's attempt to determine the best as each position.

• Catcher: Yadier Molina's option will be exercised, leaving Ramon Hernandez as the best available.  Hernandez hasn't played in 100 games since '08, but he still easily tops a list of mostly backups at the position.
• First base: Prince Fielder has drawn more walks this year, but I still have to give the nod to Albert Pujols.  Pujols began the year with a couple off of months and injured his wrist in June, but he's still among the game's best players.
• Second base: Robinson Cano's option will be exercised, and Brandon Phillips appears likely.  Despite a lousy offensive year, Kelly Johnson might be the best second baseman standing.
• Shortstop: I like Jimmy Rollins, but I don't think you can argue for anyone other than Jose Reyes.
• Third base:  The market for third basemen is terrible, but Aramis Ramirez remains a quality option.
• Left field: There's not much here, but Josh Willingham continues to display good power in a tough ballpark.
• Center field: His season hasn't been amazing, but Coco Crisp looks like the best available.  I might prefer Grady Sizemore, but I think his option will be picked up.
• Right field: This is a position with significant free agent talent: Lance Berkman, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Carlos Beltran, even after Nick Swisher's option is exercised.  This is a tough call, but I'll take Beltran.  Berkman and Cuddyer could potentially enter the mix for other positions, if they're flexible on that front.
• Designated hitter: David Ortiz is the clear choice here.
• Starting pitcher: C.J. Wilson may represent better value, but C.C. Sabathia will be the best available starting pitcher if he opts out of his Yankees contract.  If Sabathia re-ups quickly then Wilson would have the honors, unless Yu Darvish mounts a challenge.
• Closer: With all due respect to Ryan Madson, Jonathan Papelbon is the man here.
• Right-handed setup man: I expect Madson to continue closing, leaving our setup bracket wide open.  Joel Peralta is a respectable choice, while Kerry Wood and others also merit consideration.
• Lefty reliever: Tim Byrdak, Mike Gonzalez, and George Sherrill have been tough on fellow lefties, but Darren Oliver is my pick.