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The Giants, Phillies, Braves, Mariners, Athletics, and Angels are a few contenders short on power with the trade deadline less than two months away.  Let's take a look at some power bats that might be available in late July.

Star Power

We'll let Fred Wilpon decide whether these guys are superstars or just very good players.  But Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Hunter Pence are the best potentially available power bats this summer.  I'm aware that Reyes only has one home run and is not considered a power hitter, but his .489 slugging percentage still ranks 18th in the league and ahead of Ethier.

I don't expect Kemp or Ethier to be traded this summer.  The Dodgers may be under new ownership next year, the last year of control for both outfielders.  They'll both get eight-figure salaries in arbitration, but the team can afford that even with a payroll reduction.  Pence also appears unlikely to be dealt, suggested ESPN's Jayson Stark on Monday.

I have a hard time seeing the Mets sell low on Wright, given his back injury.  Reyes should be available, but Beltran is the true star-level power bat on this market.  About $6MM of his $18.5MM salary will remain on July 31st, and the Mets could kick in a few million to sweeten the return.

Having Solid Years

Carlos Quentin, Jason Kubel, Laynce Nix, and Casey Blake are having solid years, though the sample sizes remain small and several of these guys were disappointing last year.  No one here is earning more than $5.25MM, so salary should not be a factor.  Kubel is on the DL and Blake recently came off it.  Nix has nine home runs in just 130 plate appearances, 118 of which came against right-handed pitching. 

Quentin is the best bet here, if you don't mind questionable defense and occasional injury concerns.  He's under team control through 2012.  With Juan Pierre and Alex Rios both struggling, and Pierre up for free agency at season's end, the Sox might feel compelled to keep Quentin.  If you're seeking a left-handed bat instead, renting Kubel is the more feasible alternative.  He could bring draft pick compensation after the season, which should increase the Twins' asking price.

Regulars With Power And Flaws

The Orioles have four regulars who have flashed power in recent memory: Mark Reynolds, Derrek Lee, Vladimir Guerrero, and Luke Scott.  Lee is on the disabled list and Scott is playing through a shoulder injury.  The four hitters have combined for a .238/.311/.383 line this year, so acquiring them would be buying low.

The Cubs can offer Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano to the power market; the trio was discussed at length here.  Pena would be the most movable player; would a return to Oakland make sense?

Four more flawed hitters with pop: Jeff Francoeur, Delmon Young, Carlos Lee, and Ryan Ludwick.  Most of them won't draw walks, while Ludwick has been pretty bad outside of a solid May.

Going Young

A pair of corner infielders under the age of 27 who might be available: Ian Stewart and Chris Davis.  The Rangers don't have much of a spot for Davis, so he's a fine trade chip.  The Rockies may be reluctant to give up on Stewart, who has been raking at Triple-A prior to a hamstring injury after earning a surprising demotion.  Stewart returned to the lineup tonight by the way.

The Rest

A batch of part-time bats who have shown power here and there: Brad Hawpe, Edwin Encarnacion, Garrett Jones, Marcus Thames, Rod Barajas, Lyle Overbay, Bill Hall, and Jeff Baker.  Baker is the one having a nice year, though he's on the DL for a strained groin.  The 29-year-old infielder crushes lefties.

Jim Thome deserves special mention, as few players in the game match his power when he's healthy.  Right now he's on the DL for a strained left quad, and when he returns the Twins would probably like to see him get those seven remaining home runs for 600 in their uniform.  A late August deal makes more sense.

Check out our list of potentially available starting pitchers here.

There could be as many as a dozen sellers when the trade deadline approaches in late July.  Almost everyone else will be seeking starting pitching; let's take a look at who might be available.

• Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles: On May 29th, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote, "The Baltimore people insist Guthrie is going nowhere, that he’s very much a part of the team’s plans. But not many are buying it."  The 32-year-old righty earns $5.75MM this year and is under team control for 2012.
• John Danks, White Sox: Danks had a rough month of May, and his SIERA sits at 4.62.  Given his track record I think the Sox will keep him in the rotation and wait for him to turn things around.  He's under team control through '12 and should earn a good buck next year.  It'd make sense for GM Kenny Williams to listen, but Danks would be tough to move with Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle up for free agency after the season.
• Edwin Jackson, White Sox: EJax has been his inconsistent self this year, posting some strong efforts but also allowing 10.5 hits per nine innings.  If he's sent to the bullpen, some team might have a chance to buy low.
• Jeff Francis, Royals: Francis has been healthy and has performed acceptably for the Royals this year.  He'll earn only $4MM if he hits all his incentives, so the price is right for any contender.  The Royals may also deem Kyle Davies and Bruce Chen expendable, if they get healthy.
• Carl Pavano, Twins: Pavano earns $8MM this year and $8.5MM in 2012.  His declining strikeout rate makes you wonder if he's more of a 5.00 ERA than a 4.00 guy, but I still think he'd generate mild trade interest.
• Francisco Liriano, Twins: Liriano is appealing for his ace upside, and he expects to return next week from a DL stint for shoulder inflammation.  Liriano is more than a rental, and he'll be a wild card if the Twins make him available.
• Kevin Slowey, Twins: Slowey is rehabbing an abdomen strain, after which he'll return to Triple-A and to starting.  The flyballing right-hander sounds like he wouldn't mind a trade, and with his stock down he might not require much.
• Mike Pelfrey, Mets: Pelfrey is looking like Pavano with worse control.  Though he's under team control through 2013, his salary is already close to $4MM and he could get pricey in arbitration.
• R.A. Dickey, Mets: The knuckleballer can be controlled affordably through 2013, and the Mets probably prefer to retain him.  But he is showing that last year was not a fluke and he would draw trade interest.
• Chris Capuano, Mets: Capuano has been solid, though I'm not sure how much of their rotation the Mets want to dismantle.  Capuano may be the most expendable since he's a free agent after the season.  He'd be a nice fit for a team with a big ballpark.
• Livan Hernandez, Nationals: Hernandez continues to get it done with his 84 mile per hour fastball. He's earning a base salary of only $1MM on an extension signed last August.  I imagine he'd prefer to stay and the Nats won't be especially motivated to move him.
• Jason Marquis, Nationals: Marquis is earning $7.5MM and is more likely to go.  He seems recovered from last year's elbow injury, but he's yet another low-strikeout mid-4.00 ERA innings guy.
• Paul Maholm, Pirates: Maholm seems likely to be moved.  He's making a modest $5.75MM and would be owed another $750K if his $9.75MM club option for 2012 is declined.  He's useful, but with a 3.18 ERA he's pitching over his head.
• Kevin Correia, Pirates: Correia's ERA is deceiving as well, as his strikeout rate is a career low 3.8 per nine.  He's shown his best control too, however.  Correia is owed a modest $3MM next year.
• Ryan Dempster, Cubs: Dempster posted a strong May after a brutal April.  He's a horse, and unlike many pitchers listed here he's a strikeout pitcher.  However, he can block any trade.  Dempster earns a hefty $13.5MM this year and has a player option at $14MM for '12.  If the Cubs kick in some money, Dempster approves a trade, and the option situation is resolved, he'd be a nice pickup.
• Carlos Zambrano, Cubs: At about $18MM this year and next, the Cubs would have to contribute some serious cash to move their former ace.  Plus, he has a full no-trade clause.  Z has shown career-best control this year, but groundballs are down and he appears to be a mid-4.00s ERA guy now.
• Brett Myers, Astros: Myers earns $7MM this year, $11MM in '12, and has a $10MM club option with a $3MM buyout for '13.  Groundballs are down and home runs are up, and Myers is looking like a well-paid innings guy.
• Wandy Rodriguez, Astros: Wandy would be one of the more appealing pitchers on this list, but he's on the DL for elbow soreness.  He's well-compensated and can be controlled through 2014.  If he comes back strong the Astros might be well-served to escape his contract if possible.
• Aaron Harang, Padres: Harang's groundball rate is up a touch, and for once his ERA (3.88) is in line with his peripheral stats.  His trade value is limited, but at least he's only making $3.5MM plus a $500K buyout.
• Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers: Kuroda has a full no-trade clause, which was perhaps his reward for only requiring a one-year deal.  He'd probably prefer to stay near L.A.  He's gone from very good last year to just useful so far this year.  He's earning $12MM, so teams looking to add mid-rotation arms will probably look elsewhere.
• Jon Garland, Dodgers: His groundball rate down, Garland is probably worse than his 4.31 ERA suggests.  He has an $8MM option for 2012 that vests at 190 innings, but it appears he'll fall short.
• Ted Lilly, Dodgers: Lilly's strikeout rate is down a bit, though last night's effort was encouraging.  The homer-prone southpaw remains useful, but he's well-paid through 2013.
• Derek Lowe, Braves: I can't quite see the Braves cashing in on Lowe this summer, though he's been solid this year with added strikeouts and his typical groundball tendencies.  At $15MM this year and next, there are more appealing trade targets anyway.
• Erik Bedard, Mariners: Bedard has been healthy and effective this year.  He has a $1MM base salary and $6.35MM in performance bonuses.  A healthy Bedard would be one of the top available starters, but the Mariners are only a half game back in the AL West.

ESPN's Keith Law has updated his top 25 prospect list, four months after publishing his top 100.  You'll need Insider to view these articles.  I can vouch that it's a good investment.  A few notes:

• Eight members of Law's offseason top 25 are not in his current top 25 because they are in the Majors: Domonic Brown (#3 in February), Eric Hosmer (5), Zach Britton (11), Kyle Drabek (13), Jeremy Hellickson (14), Aroldis Chapman (15), Brandon Belt (17), and Michael Pineda (21).
• 11 players moved into the top 25.  Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez made the biggest leap, from #52 to #25.  Brett Lawrie, Anthony Rizzo, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jarred Cosart, and Manny Machado also climbed at least 16 spots.
• Aaron Hicks, Mike Moustakas, and Tyler Matzek fell out of Law's top 25 despite eight openings being created by players graduating to the Majors.
• Mike Trout and Bryce Harper maintained their #1-2 rankings as the best prospects in baseball.

Much of the baseball world was abuzz this week over the comments Fred Wilpon made in The New Yorker about his players and team. The attention is understandable, since the comments appear to be both wrong on the merits and antithetical to Wilpon's own self-interest. But ill-advised comments are nothing new for baseball owners.

After all, as Bill Veeck once said, "Baseball must be a great game, because the owners haven't been able to kill it." I thought it would be fun to see what the closest historical comparables are for each of Wilpon's gaffes this week (by all means, let me know in the comments section if I'm missing any – these are far from scientific conclusions).

On Carlos Beltran: “We had some schmuck in New York who paid him based on that one series. He’s sixty five to seventy per cent of what he was.”

Closest comp: When George Steinbrenner said of Dave Winfield: "Where is Reggie Jackson? We need a Mr. October or a Mr. September. Winfield is Mr. May."

Similarities include criticizing a player for only coming through during a specific time of year. Naturally, Beltran hasn't had much chance to come through during postseasons for the Mets. Even his famous 'failure' – a strikeout to end Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS – came in a series in which he hit three home runs.

On Jose Reyes: "He thinks he’s going to get Carl Crawford money,” Wilpon said, referring to the left fielder's seven-year, $142MM contract with Boston. “He’s had everything wrong with him,” Wilpon said of Reyes. “He won’t get it.”

Closest comp: When Reds owner Bill DeWitt sent Frank Robinson to Baltimore for pitchers Milt Pappas and Jack Baldschun and outfielder Dick Simpson in January 1966, he defended the trade by explaining that Robinson was "an old 30." Robinson went on to win the triple crown for Baltimore in 1966, and starred with the Orioles for many seasons to come.

Similarities include a shocking misread of the market for a player, and an attempt to denigrate an in-prime star. DeWitt was wise enough to wait until after he traded his player, of course.

On David Wright: "He’s pressing,” Wilpon said. “A really good kid. A very good player. Not a superstar.”

Closest comp: Charlie Finley said to Vida Blue after the 1972 season, "So you won twenty games? Why didn't you win thirty?"

Similarities include a failure to recognize elite talent right in front of him. However, Finley had a larger purpose: to pay Blue less in ongoing contract negotiations. With Wright signed through 2013, Wilpon's motivations are far less clear.

On the Mets: “Good hitter,” Wilpon said in reference to first baseman Ike Davis. “S***** team—good hitter. Lousy clubs — that’s what happens.”

Closest comp: Anything George Steinbrenner ever said after the Yankees lost in the playoffs.

Similarities include the disparaging of the very team each man owned. The difference was that in Steinbrenner's case, the Yankees had usually won well over 90 games and made the playoffs.

As part of the process for the 2012 Contract Issues series I determined the players projected to be eligible for arbitration for each team.  Right now about 230 players project to be arbitration eligible, but a good 60 of them will probably be released, demoted, or non-tendered, so focus on the bigger names.  Click below to see the current list.

Read more

I've seen some talk about the 2011-12 offseason featuring a strong free agent market for closers.  However, it's possible the strength of this class has been overstated.  Let's take a look.

• Heath Bell: Bell has yet to allow a home run this year in 17 innings, and he's generally pitching well.  However, he's typically been good for at least a strikeout per inning and this year he's down to 6.3 per nine.  That's come with an increase in groundballs, but if the lack of strikeouts continues it will have to give some teams pause before committing big bucks to a 34-year-old.
• Jonathan Broxton: Broxton has relative youth on his side, but he lost his closing job again and his numbers are lousy across the board.  He's currently on the DL with an elbow injury and may have to take a one-year deal to rebuild value.
• Matt Capps: Capps has never been a top-shelf closer.  He's showing fantastic control this year, but otherwise his strikeout rate is dangerously low and he's allowing tons of flyballs (and as you'd expect, home runs).  He's blown four saves already; only one other closer (Craig Kimbrel) has done that without being ousted from the role.
• Francisco Cordero: Cordero has a $12MM club option the Reds figure to decline, even though the 36-year-old has a 1.77 ERA.  He's improved his typically poor control and added groundballs, but like several other closers it's come at the cost of strikeouts.  In general, teams figure to be reluctant to commit $8MM+ salaries and multiple years to relievers in their mid-30s who don't strike people out.
• Frank Francisco: Francisco's season began with a DL stint for tightness in his right pectoral muscle and inflammation in his biceps.  That's a concern for a pitcher with a lengthy injury history.  He's got his usual huge strikeout rate, but he's walked eight and allowed four home runs in 12 1/3 innings so far.
• Ryan Franklin: Four blown saves got him replaced as the Cardinals' closer, and he may not return to that role for any team.
• Brad Lidge: Lidge has a $12.5MM club option that will surely be declined.  He's rehabbing a shoulder injury and could make his 2011 debut in June.  Lidge probably won't close upon his return, unless something happens to Ryan Madson. 
• Joe Nathan: Nathan's return from Tommy John surgery has not been smooth sailing, and he's another former great closer certain to have a big club option declined.  So far his customary control has been missing.  Like Broxton and Lidge, he'd do well to take a one-year deal and rack up 40 saves somewhere.
• Jonathan Papelbon: Quietly, Papelbon is having one of the best statistical seasons of his career.  If he can put 2010 in the rearview, maybe he can challenge Nathan's relief record $47MM contract.
• Francisco Rodriguez: Though he's on pace, I still can't see the Mets allowing K-Rod's 2011 option for $17.5MM to vest with 55 games finished.  The Mets could eat some salary and trade Rodriguez to a team for which he would not close.  Of course, that team would be taking on a risk in that they might have little recourse but to turn to K-Rod to close if their ninth inning guy falters or gets hurt.  K-Rod still whiffs a batter per inning with questionable control, but this year he boasts the best groundball rate of his career by far.  His average fastball velocity is down to 90.4 miles per hour.
• Rafael Soriano: Perhaps he's unhappy as a setup man, but there's no way he opts out after a season that included an elbow injury and lousy numbers (so far).  Soriano must choose between $25MM over the 2012-13 seasons or free agency and a $1.5MM buyout.
• Jose Valverde: His fastball is down a tick, but he is 11-for-11 in save chances.  I imagine the Tigers will exercise his $9MM club option.
• Kyle Farnsworth:  Farnsworth's customary strikeouts are missing, but he's got a fantastic 62.5% groundball rate.  Did all the closers have a meeting about this?  Farnsworth is fixing his reputation by going nine for ten in save opportunities, and the Rays will probably exercise his $3.3MM option.
• Ryan Madson:  Thrust into the closer role with Lidge and Jose Contreras unavailable, Madson is nine for nine in save chances and has allowed one run in 19 innings.  His peripherals are strong, including a career-best 62.8% groundball rate.  This Scott Boras client is also mending his reputation and may jockey with Papelbon for the biggest contract for any reliever this winter.
• Vicente Padilla:  He snagged a couple of save chances with Broxton unavailable, but is back on the DL with pain in his surgically-repaired forearm.  Fun fact: Padilla's Major League debut in 1999 with the Diamondbacks was a save situation, but Greg Vaughn, Barry Larkin, Eddie Taubensee, and Aaron Boone got the best of him.  We'll see whether Padilla can come back strong and remain the Dodgers' closer this year.   

There are strong options here, though we all know the fickle nature of relievers.  This closing class is weaker than expected given the poor pitching of Broxton, Capps, Franklin, and Nathan.  Papelbon and Madson represent the best combinations of age, success, and strikeouts.

Athletics lefty reliever Jerry Blevins has been designated for assignment and is presumably available, leaving me to wonder which contenders have a need.  For now I'll define a contender as any team five games out in the division or wild card at worst.  That generously leaves 24 teams to consider.  Note that I haven't included minor league southpaw starters who could be promoted to the big league pen, like Charlie Furbush was with the Tigers.  The lefties on each team's active or Triple-A roster or DL list:

AL East

• Yankees (1): Boone Logan.  Pedro Feliciano aiming for July return.  Randy Flores and Andrew Sisco at Triple-A.
• Rays (2): J.P. Howell, Cesar Ramos.  Jake McGee and R.J. Swindle at Triple-A.
• Red Sox (2): Rich Hill, Franklin Morales.  Felix Doubront is on the DL but will be used as a starter.  Hideki Okajima could remain in the organization if he clears waivers.  Also have Andrew Miller, Randy Williams, and Tommy Hottovy at Triple-A.
• Blue Jays (2): Luis Perez, Marc Rzepczynski.  Willie Collazo, Sean Henn, Wil Ledezma, and Rommie Lewis at Triple-A.
• Orioles (2): Mike Gonzalez, Clay Rapada.  Alberto Castillo, Mark Hendrickson, Chris George at Triple-A.

AL Central

• Indians (2): Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp.  Nick Hagadone at Triple-A.
• Tigers (2): Charlie Furbush, Daniel Schlereth.  Brad Thomas on the DL with elbow inflammation.  Ramon Garcia, Matt Hoffman, Fu-Te Ni at Triple-A.
• White Sox (3): Will Ohman, Chris Sale, Matt Thornton.
• Royals (2): Tim Collins, Everett Teaford.  Blaine Hardy at Triple-A.

AL West

• Rangers (2): Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes.  Beau Jones, Michael Kirkman, Zachary Phillips at Triple-A. 
• Angels (2): Scott Downs, Hisanori Takahashi.  Scott Kazmir on DL with lower back stiffness.  Barret Browning, Horacio Ramirez at Triple-A.
• Athletics (3): Craig Breslow, Brian Fuentes, David Purcey. 
• Mariners (1): Aaron Laffey.  Cesar Jimenez, Royce Ring at Triple-A.

NL East

• Phillies (2): Antonio Bastardo, J.C. Romero.  Juan Perez, Mike Zagurski at Triple-A.
• Marlins (2): Randy Choate, Mike Dunn.  Victor Garate, Dustin Richardson at Triple-A.
• Braves (3): Eric O'Flaherty, George Sherrill, Jonny Venters.  Yohan Flande, Jose Lugo at Triple-A.
• Mets (3): Tim Byrdak, Pat Misch, Michael O'Connor.  Justin Hampson, Taylor Tankersley at Triple-A.

NL Central

• Cardinals (2): Trever Miller, Brian Tallet.  Rich Rundles, Raul Valdes at Triple-A.
• Reds (1): Bill Bray.  Aroldis Chapman on DL with shoulder inflammation.  Tom Cochran, Jeremy Horst, Joseph Krebs, Dontrelle Willis at Triple-A.
• Brewers (0): None, though Danny Ray Herrera could join the active roster soon.  Zach Braddock, Manny Parra, Mitch Stetter on DL.  Sam Narron, Chase Wright at Triple-A.
• Pirates (1): Joe Beimel.  Dan Meyer, Daniel Moskos, Garrett Olson, Justin Thomas, Tony Watson at Triple-A.

NL West

• Giants (3): Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Dan Runzler.  Justin Dowdy, Geno Espineli at Triple-A.
• Rockies (1): Matt Reynolds.  Rex Brothers, Eric Stults at Triple-A.
• D'Backs (1): Joe Paterson.  Tom Layne, Jordan Norberto at Triple-A.

The Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Brewers, Mets, and Diamondbacks strike me as a few clubs looking light on lefty reliever depth, though unproven or journeyman pitchers step up every year.  Plus, some teams are comfortable with their right-handers' abilities to retire left-handed hitters.

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We checked in on the free agent offensive leaderboards yesterday; now let's see how starting pitchers stack up a quarter of the way through the season.

ERA

1. Hiroki Kuroda – 3.21
2. C.J. Wilson – 3.38
3. C.C. Sabathia – 3.47
4. Jason Marquis – 3.54
5. Bruce Chen – 3.59

SIERA (minimum 40 innings)

1. Bartolo Colon – 3.30
2. Ryan Dempster – 3.62
3. Hiroki Kuroda – 3.82
4. C.C. Sabathia – 3.92
5. Chris Carpenter – 4.02

Innings pitched

    1.  C.J. Wilson – 61 1/3
    2.  Mark Buehrle, C.C. Sabathia – 59 2/3
    4.  Livan Hernandez – 57 1/3
    5.  Brad Penny – 57

Strikeouts per nine innings

1. Ryan Dempster – 8.6
2. Bartolo Colon – 8.5
3. C.C. Sabathia – 7.5
4. C.J. Wilson – 7.34
5. Edwin Jackson - 7.28

Walks per nine innings

1. Jeff Francis – 1.67
2. Jason Marquis – 1.69
3. Bartolo Colon – 2.1
4. Hiroki Kuroda – 2.2
5. Mark Buehrle – 2.6

Groundball rate

1. Brad Penny – 54.0%
2. Paul Maholm – 52.4%
3. Jason Marquis – 51.7%
4. Jeff Francis – 49.5%
5. Hiroki Kuroda – 48.5%

Average fastball velocity

    1.  Edwin Jackson – 93.8 mph
    2.  C.C. Sabathia – 92.8
    3.  Brad Penny – 92.0
    4.  Chris Carpenter, Bartolo Colon – 91.8

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