Uncategorized News & Rumors

The Tigers will consider trading for an outfield or third base bat, tweets SI's Jon Heyman, though the $15MM salary owed to Mets' third baseman David Wright "appears too rich for them to take."

Wright's salary is listed at $14MM at Cot's Baseball Contracts, so acquiring him on July 31st would require adding about $4.5MM.  I imagine the cost in players to acquire Wright would be an even bigger concern, but only if he starts hitting in the next two months.  Plus, the Tigers are already paying Brandon Inge $5.5MM this year and next to man the hot corner.

The Tigers haven't gotten much from outfielders Ryan Raburn, Austin Jackson, and Magglio Ordonez so far this season.  A few speculative trade ideas: Jeff Francoeur, Jason Kubel, Hunter Pence, Ryan Ludwick, and Luke Scott.  Problems: acquiring Francoeur or Kubel from division rivals could be tough, and Pence may not be available.  Carlos Beltran would be a nice fit, but he earns more than Wright.

The Tigers were seven games out and in third place ten days ago, but since then they've won seven straight.  They're now in second place, 3.5 games behind the Indians with Max Scherzer on the hill tonight.

We're about a quarter of the way through the 2011 season.  Here's a look at the impending free agent leaderboards.

Batting average

1. Lance Berkman – .347
2. Jason Kubel – .331
3. Jamey Carroll – .319
4. Jose Reyes – .310
5. Jeff Francoeur – .295

On-base percentage

1. Lance Berkman – .434
2. Jason Kubel – .387
3. Jamey Carroll – .380
4. David Ortiz – .377
5. Carlos Beltran – .373

Slugging percentage

1. Lance Berkman – .694
2. Carlos Beltran – .569
3. Jeff Francoeur – .550
4. Prince Fielder – .540
5. David Ortiz – .504

Walk rate

1. Carlos Pena – 17.5%
2. Kosuke Fukudome – 16.4%
3. J.D. Drew – 16.3%
4. Jonny Gomes – 15.7%
5. Lance Berkman - 14.5%

wOBA

1. Lance Berkman - .463
2. Carlos Beltran – .402
3. Jeff Francoeur – .390
4. Prince Fielder – .390
5. Kosuke Fukudome – .387

Home runs

    1.  Lance Berkman – 11
    2.  Prince Fielder – 9
    3.  Carlos Beltran, Jeff Francoeur – 8
    5.  David Ortiz, Rod Barajas, Albert Pujols – 7

Decent relievers are always a hot commodity at the trade deadline.  The Rangers, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rays, Indians, and Phillies are just a few contenders who might be in the market for bullpen help a few months from now.  What will the trade market look like?

• The Padres are in good position to sell relievers, with impending free agents Heath Bell and Chad Qualls prime candidates.  You also have to wonder if GM Jed Hoyer will consider trading Mike Adams, who is under control through '12 but will see his salary jump next year.
• If he's healthy, Arizona's Aaron Heilman probably could be acquired easily.  Closer J.J. Putz would be tougher to get, but GM Kevin Towers will probably listen.
• Should the Cubs fall out of contention, they'd probably move lefty John Grabow just for a little salary relief.  Kerry Wood would make sense too, though he has strong ties to Chicago and took less to sign with the Cubs.  Similarly, the Brewers could part with veterans LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito if they're not contending in July.
• If the Pirates receive good offers for Joel Hanrahan, Chris Resop, Jose Veras, or Joe Beimel, will they hold off in the name of finishing above .500?  My guess is that Neal Huntington will keep a very open mind.
• The Mets have much to offer.  Taylor Buchholz, who is under team control through next year, has been excellent.  Veterans Francisco Rodriguez, Jason Isringhausen, and Tim Byrdak should be available as well.  The problem with K-Rod: his $17.5MM option for next year vests with 43 more games finished.
• If the Twins' struggles continue, they could save money by trading Matt Capps and/or Joe Nathan.  Teams seeking more than a rental could ask about lefties Glen Perkins and Jose Mijares.  The White Sox have gotten disappointing results from Will Ohman, Tony Pena, and Matt Thornton, but probably prefer to keep Thornton around for the future.
• I don't see why the Orioles wouldn't offer up most of their veteran relievers, as Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez, and Kevin Gregg could hold appeal.  Gonzalez and Gregg would involve taking on big salaries, however.
• Toronto's pen ranks third in the AL with a 3.04 ERA, and they've got enticing veterans galore.  Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor, Shawn Camp, Carlos Villanueva, and Casey Janssen are pitching well; Octavio Dotel not so much.  Most Jays relievers can be controlled for 2012 or beyond, which could be viewed as both a reason to keep them and a reason they'll have extra appeal as trade targets.
• Todd Coffey, Brandon League, Jose Valverde, Jonathan Broxton, Mike MacDougal, and Vicente Padilla could also become available depending on their teams' circumstances.

Last year we started a Twitter account called @closernews, which provides instant updates on MLB closer situations for fantasy baseball players.  The account is up over 5,000 followers and has helped many win their saves category.  Given the initial success, we're going to be expanding the coverage hours @closernews provides.  Also, later in the year we'll be launching a website to provide analysis and closer rankings.

We're seeking writers to cover the late-night closer situations, starting at 11pm central time and going until the last game ends.  This is an unpaid position.  Those who contribute to the Twitter account will have first crack at writing for the website.  The preference is for fantasy baseball junkies who already follow @closernews.  If this project sounds like an enjoyable resume-builder for you, please email closernewshelp@gmail.com and let us know why you should join the @closernews team.  Please note: if you applied earlier today, please resend your email to closernewshelp@gmail.com, as we had to change the email address. 

If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

• MLBTR Chats – Come by every Wednesday at 2pm CDT to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the major leagues.
• Baseball Blogs Weigh In – Every Friday morning, Mike Axisa directs you to some of the best writing on baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to send Mike a post of yours, reach him at: mike@riveraveblues.com.
• Week In Review – It's amazing how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, we summarize the week's biggest stories in our Week In Review posts.
• MLBTR Originals – We gather all our original analysis and reporting in one place every Sunday night.

Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, and C.C. Sabathia lead the list of players eligible for free agency after the season.  I recently updated our 2012 MLB free agent list, so please check it out and bookmark it.

From the Blue Jays signing Dustin McGowan for $450K to the Red Sox extending Adrian Gonzalez at $154MM, teams committed almost $3 billion in free agent deals, arbitration contracts, and extensions to 314 players during the 2010-11 offseason.  I defined the offseason as October 1st, 2010 through April 30th, 2011, so that the April extensions would be recognized.

The goal was to capture guaranteed money from new contracts.  Arbitration deals typically are not guaranteed, though those players are rarely cut, so I included them.  If you find any errors in the numbers in the attached spreadsheet, please contact us or leave a comment.

1. Boras Corporation: $444.475MM.  Boras is back on top after ranking third last winter.  Contracts for Jayson Werth, Adrian Beltre, Carlos Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano accounted for much of the total.
2. Legacy Sports Group: $321.375MM.  Legacy's huge winter was led by Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Rickie Weeks, and Billy Butler.  Crawford signed the offseason's biggest free agent contract at $142MM.
3. CAA Sports: $234.575MM.  CAA's total comes mainly from Ryan Braun and Derek Jeter.
4. John Boggs & Associates: $185.675MM.  Extensions for Adrian Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill pushed this company to the fourth spot.  Gonzalez signed the biggest contract of any player during the offseason at $154MM.
5. TWC Sports: $164.0575MM.  Rockies players Troy Tulowitzki and Jorge De La Rosa comprise most of this total.
6. SFX: $152.38MM.  SFX had a balanced winter, with only Mariano Rivera and Clay Buchholz in the $30MM range.
7. Frontline: $126.375MM.  This is almost all Cliff Lee.
8. ACES: $125.85MM.  Early contracts for John Buck, Joaquin Benoit, Brandon Inge, and Jhonny Peralta boosted this agency.
9. Gaylord Sports Management: $102.65MM. Dan Uggla and Bronson Arroyo made up most of this total.
10. Octagon: $99.885MM.  Victor Martinez was the big fish for this agency.
11. Praver/Shapiro: $95.15MM.  This group had four major deals, with Johnny Cueto, Juan Uribe, Carlos Marmol, and Leonys Martin.
12. Wasserman Media Group: $91.91MM.  Like SFX, Wasserman had a balanced winter, with only Wandy Rodriguez topping $15MM.
13. Sosnick Cobbe Sports: $90.95MM. This firm made their money with extensions, led by Jay Bruce and Ricky Nolasco.
14. LSW Baseball: $71.725MM.  Paul Konerko, Jason Bartlett, and J.J. Putz scored eight-figure deals.
15. Beverly Hills Sports Council: $66.4685MM.  BHSC's biggest deals went to relievers Brian Fuentes and Kevin Gregg, and they were able to beat their former agent Dan Lozano.
16. Proformance: $65.865MM.  This is almost all Jose Bautista's contract.
17. Dan Lozano: $51.35MM.  This agency should do well next offseason with Albert Pujols, Jimmy Rollins, and others.  During 2010-11 they were led by Joey Votto's extension.

Those were the 17 agencies to top $50MM brokered during the 2010-11 offseason.  Another 47 agencies accounted for the remaining 14% of the offseason total.

That headline is probably a little misleading since technically every player costs their team money, but I'm talking in terms of performance dollars. Earlier this afternoon we listed the free agents from this past offseason that are already providing their team surplus value, but now let's turn the tables and list the guys that have been so bad that they're costing their team.

We're essentially talking about players below "replacement" level, which is defined as freely available talent. A replacement level player is one of those AAAA type of guys, someone easy to find (on waivers, etc.) and available only for the league minimum. Here's the free agents performing at a level below that…

Position Players

• Carl Crawford, Red Sox – $14MM salary, -$2.6MM value ($16.6MM deficit)
• Aubrey Huff, Giants – $10MM salary, -$4.5MM value ($14.5MM deficit)
• Adam Dunn, White Sox – $12MM salary, -$1.5MM value ($13.5MM deficit)
• Carlos Pena, Cubs – $10MM salary, -$1.5MM value ($10.5MM deficit)
• Miguel Tejada, Giants – $6.5MM salary, -$2.8MM value ($9.3MM deficit)
• Vladimir Guerrero, Orioles – $8MM salary, -$400K value ($8.4MM deficit)
• Lyle Overbay, Pirates – $5MM salary, -$1.8MM value ($6.8MM deficit)
• Bill Hall, Astros – $3MM salary, -$3MM value ($6MM deficit)
• Hideki Matsui, Athletics – $4.25MM salary, -$200K value ($4.45MM deficit)
• Miguel Olivo, Mariners – $2.25MM salary, -$1.9MM value ($4.15MM deficit)
• A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox – $2MM salary, -$400K value ($2.4MM deficit)
• Jack Cust, Mariners – $2.5MM salary, -$200K value ($2.7MM deficit)

Pitchers

• Rafael Soriano, Yankees – $10MM salary, -$500K value ($10.5MM deficit)
• Javier Vazquez, Marlins – $7MM salary, -$700K value ($7.7MM deficit)
• Hisanori Takahashi, Angels – $3.8MM salary, -$2MM value ($5.8MM deficit)
• Joaquin Benoit, Tigers – $5.5MM salary, -$200K value ($5.7MM deficit)
• Jon Rauch, Blue Jays – $3.75MM salary, -$1.6MM value ($5.35MM deficit)
• Dan Wheeler, Red Sox – $3MM salary, -$800K value ($3.8MM deficit)
• Koji Uehara, Orioles – $3MM salary, -$400K value ($3.4MM deficit)
• Jeremy Accardo, Orioles – $1.08MM salary, -$900K value ($1.98MM deficit)
• Chad Durbin, Indians – $800K salary, -$600K value ($1.4MM deficit)
• Mike MacDougal, Dodgers – $500K salary, -$400K value ($900K deficit)
• Alfredo Aceves, Red Sox – $650K salary, -$200K value ($850K deficit)

The performances of Orlando Cabrera, Todd Coffey, and Kevin Gregg are valued at exactly $0, so they aren't costing their teams just yet. Derek Jeter and Derrek Lee (both at $200K) aren't that far off from making the list. Obviously this does not mean that these players will contribute to be negative performers all season, just that they have been to date.

Thanks to FanGraphs and Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info used in this post.

This morning we looked at the top free agents in terms of ERA+ and OPS+, but that's a simplistic view of things. Teams are always looking for surplus value, which is the amount of production a player provides beyond his salary. That's why quality players in their pre-arbitration years are so valuable, they're the most bang for the buck.

FanGraphs puts a dollar value on every player's performance based on how much teams have paid for similar production on the free agent market in recent years. Using that data, let's see what free agents from this past offseason are already providing surplus value to the teams that signed them…

Position Players

• Jack Hannahan, Indians – $500K salary, $5.3MM value ($4.8MM surplus)
• Jeff Francoeur, Royals – $2.5MM salary, $6.4MM value ($3.9MM surplus)
• Russell Martin, Yankees – $4MM salary, $6.1MM value  ($2.1MM surplus)
• Lance Berkman, Cardinals – $8MM salary, $9.6MM value ($1.6MM surplus)
• Melky Cabrera, Royals – $1.25MM salary, $2.6MM value ($1.35MM surplus)

Pitchers

• Brandon McCarthy, Athletics – $1MM salary, $5.1MM value ($4.1MM surplus)
• Bartolo Colon, Yankees – $900K salary, $2.4MM value ($1.5MM surplus)
• Dustin Moseley, Padres – $900K salary, $2MM value ($1.1MM surplus)
• Joel Peralta, Rays – $925K salary, $1MM value ($75K surplus)

Both Kevin Correia ($2.2MM value, $3MM salary) and Jeff Francis ($1.6MM value, $2MM salary) are a few good starts from joining the group. Orlando Hudson ($3.7MM value, $4MM salary) and Pat Burrell ($900K value, $1MM salary) are knocking on the door as well.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the salary info.

Earlier this morning we looked at the top free agent hitters from this past offseason in terms of OPS+, and now it's time to look at the free agent pitchers using ERA+. Given the nature of their role, relievers are not included…

• Dustin Moseley, Padres – 1.63 ERA (217 ERA+) – It's not just Petco Park, Moseley has a 3.75 ERA in two starts at home and a 0.68 ERA in four starts on the road.
• Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies – 2.92 ERA (153 ERA+) – Several teams were interested in the southpaw, who re-upped in Colorado and continues to pitch well.
• Bartolo Colon, Yankees – 3.00 ERA (134 ERA+) – What's more surprising: that Colon has been this effective, or that he's still pumping 94 mph gas?
• Kevin Correia, Pirates – 2.91 ERA (134 ERA+) – Pittsburgh's Opening Day hurler has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his seven starts.
• Brandon McCarthy, Athletics – 3.05 ERA (137 ERA+) – He also has the fifth best K/BB ratio (4.50) in the American League.
• Bruce Chen, Royals – 3.59 ERA (109 ERA+) – Chen has finally found some staying power with his tenth big league club.
• Cliff Lee, Phillies – 3.69 ERA (105 ERA+) – The winter's big prize whiffed 16 Braves last night, already his fourth double-digit strikeout game of the season.
• Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers – 3.69 ERA (100 ERA+) – Kuroda was a free agent but he never hit the open market; he agreed to re-sign with the Dodgers during the exclusive negotiating period.

It drops off quite a bit after that, Aaron Harang of the Padres is next on the list with an 81 ERA+ (4.37 ERA). Chris Young of the Mets has a 202 ERA+ (1.88 ERA), but he doesn't have enough innings to qualify for the league ERA title because he's spent some time on the disabled list.