Remaining Important Offseason Dates

The vast majority of the major offseason moves have already been made, though there are still a few top notch free agents waiting to be signed. The deadlines to offer free agents arbitration and to tender contracts to players with less than six years of service time have passed, ditto the always fun Winter Meetings. The offseason doesn't end there though, here is a list of important date still to come…

  • January 5th – 15th: Teams and players file for arbitration. More than 150 arbitration-eligible players are still without contracts for the 2011 season. 
  • January 18th: Salary arbitration figures are exchanged.
  • February 1st – 21st: Salary arbitration hearings are held. Most of those 150+ players will agree to a deal beforehand and avoid a hearing.
  • March 2nd – 11th: Players in their pre-arbitration years will have their contracts renewed by their team at any amount (as long as it exceeds 80% of their salary from the previous year) during this time.
  • March 28th: Deadline to release players with non-guaranteed contracts without having to pay them their full 2011 salary.

Constructing A 25-Man Roster Of Free Agents

Once the free agent pool starts shrinking, it's always fun to start imagining teams composed only of unsigned players. For the purposes of this admittedly subjective post, I have assumed that every free agent wants to sign with my imaginary American League team and that payroll is unlimited.

My team would be heavy on power relievers, big bats, injury risks and Hairston brothers. It would be light on speed, youth and dependable starting pitching. Here's a look at my imagined 25-man roster, which would likely cost about $120MM. Players in bold are on the team.

The infield would consist of Adam LaRoche at first base, David Eckstein at second, Orlando Cabrera and short and Adrian Beltre at third. Jerry Hairston would back up at short and second and despite his rough 2010 season, Jorge Cantu would make the team as a backup corner infielder. This group figures to be above-average defensively and at least average on offense.

Aging stars would dominate the outfield. Johnny Damon would win the left field job over Fred Lewis, Scott Podsednik and Marcus Thames. Jim Edmonds and Andruw Jones, a pair of once-elite defenders, would roam center and right, respectively. Since Edmonds struggles against lefties and Damon also bats left-handed, the team's fourth outfielder would be Scott Hairston, who is versatile and right-handed.

Fans of the 2006 Blue Jays will be happy to see that Bengie Molina and Gregg Zaun have been reunited as the catching tandem for this hypothetical team. Molina slumped to .249/.297/.326 last year and Zaun missed most of the season with right shoulder surgery, but this duo isn't bad.

Vladimir Guerrero makes the team as a DH over a group of appealing candidates. I decided against Jim Thome, since the team already has a number of left-handed starters who figure to hit in the middle of the order (LaRoche, Damon, Edmonds). Manny Ramirez, another big right-handed bat, was a potential alternative to Vlad, but Guerrero produced more in 2010.

The starting rotation would consist of Carl Pavano, Brandon Webb, Jeff Francis, Freddy Garcia and Kevin Millwood (I'm assuming Andy Pettitte is not available). There's upside here, but Pavano, Webb and Francis are far from sure things. That's why I made Jeremy Bonderman the team's sixth starter/power right-handed reliever. There's no guarantee that he'll stay healthy, so Bruce Chen makes the team as the second lefty out of the 'pen and spot starter.

The bullpen would be the team's strength. Rafael Soriano would close and Kevin Gregg, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch and Octavio Dotel would also be available late in games.

I think this would likely turn out to be a below average, but respectable major league team, but I'd like to know what you think. Feel free to create your own teams or make adjustments to mine in the comments section.

AL West Lags, NL East Leads In Offseason Spending

The Angels and Rangers are candidates to sign top free agents, but so far, the AL West has committed less than any other division in baseball. And it's not just because it's a small division. The four AL West teams have averaged $14.78MM in offseason commitments, considerably less than any other division.

The Nationals and Phillies lead the charge in the NL East, which tops all divisions in offseason commitments so far. The NL East ($60.29MM per club) is ahead of the AL East ($55.2MM per club) to date, despite aggressive deals by the Yankees and Red Sox.

Here's the spending by division:

  • NL East: $60.29MM average ($301.45MM total)
  • AL East: $55.22MM average ($276.08MM total)
  • AL Central: $48.82MM average ($244.1MM total)
  • NL West: $38.71MM average ($193.53 total)
  • NL Central: $22.46MM average ($134.76MM total)
  • AL West: $14.78MM average ($59.1MM total)

Complete details and explanation available here. This list will undoubtedly change by the time the offseason ends, and is simply intended to show which divisions have been most aggressive so far.

Offseason Spending Details By Team

MLB teams have made over $1.2 billion in salary commitments so far this offseason, according to data compiled by MLBTR. The seven most aggressive teams have combined for $828MM in commitments this winter. In other words, the Red Sox, Nationals, Phillies, White Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Dodgers are responsible for 68.5% of MLB spending to date. 

It's not unusual for a small group of teams to be responsible for a large percentage of spending and it's certainly not unusual for the Red Sox and Yankees to be among the biggest spenders in the game. So far baseball's 30 teams have committed $1.209 billion this offseason*. That figure is sure to rise once high profile free agents like Rafael SorianoAdrian BeltreCarl Pavano and Adam LaRoche sign.

This is by no means a final look at offseason spending – the entire 2011 portion of the offseason lies ahead. But just as it's interesting to examine player stats midway through the season, it's worth checking out spending trends before the final totals are tallied.

The entire list of offseason commitments is below, along with an explanation of which deals count and which deals don't. First, here are a handful of observations about the data:

  • Just because teams aren't spending doesn't mean they can't or won't spend. It sounds obvious, but fans in New York and Toronto can reasonably expect the Mets and Blue Jays to spend when they believe they have a chance to contend.
  • Who would have guessed that the Rangers and Angels would only have made a combined $30.1MM in commitments at this point in the winter?
  • Yes, Florida traded a star second baseman away last month. But that hasn't stopped the normally frugal Marlins from out-spending big market teams like the Cubs, Mets and Braves.
  • There's a considerable dropoff from the Dodgers (7th with $90.18MM) to the Cardinals (8th with 42.35MM).
  • The mean (average) is $40.28MM per team.
  • The median (middle number) is $19.025MM.

Here are the details on each team's spending so far this winter:

  1. Boston Red Sox – $172MM ($142MM contract for Carl Crawford, $12.5MM option for David Ortiz, $12MM contract for Bobby Jenks, $3MM contract for Dan Wheeler, $2MM contract for Jason Varitek, $455K option for Scott Atchison)
  2. Washington Nationals – $128.5MM ($126MM contract for Jayson Werth, $1.5MM contract for Rick Ankiel, $1MM contract for Chien-Ming Wang)
  3. Philadelphia Phillies – $125.5MM ($120MM contract for Cliff Lee, $5.5MM contract for Jose Contreras)
  4. Chicago White Sox – $120.25MM ($56MM contract for Adam Dunn, $37.5MM contract for Paul Konerko, $13MM contract for Jesse Crain, $8MM contract for A.J. Pierzynski, $3MM option for Matt Thornton, $1.75MM extension for Omar Vizquel, $1MM option for Ramon Castro)
  5. Detroit Tigers – $99.25MM ($50MM contract for Victor Martinez, $16.5MM contract for Joaquin Benoit, $11.5MM extension for Brandon Inge, $11.25MM contract for Jhonny Peralta, $10MM contract for Magglio Ordonez)
  6. New York Yankees – $93MM ($51MM contract for Derek Jeter, $30MM contract for Mariano Rivera, $8MM contract for Pedro Feliciano, $4MM contract for Russell Martin)
  7. Los Angeles Dodgers – $90.18MM ($33MM extension for Ted Lilly, $21MM contract for Juan Uribe, $12MM contract for Hiroki Kuroda, $12MM contract for Matt Guerrier, $5MM contract for Jon Garland, $3.5MM contract for Rod Barajas, $2MM contract for Vicente Padilla, $1MM contract for Dioner Navarro, $680K contract for Tony Gwynn)
  8. St. Louis Cardinals – $42.35MM ($16.5MM contract for Jake Westbrook, $16MM option for Albert Pujols, $8MM contract for Lance Berkman, $1.1MM contract for Gerald Laird, $750K contract for Brian Tallet)
  9. Cincinnati Reds – $41.75MM ($35MM extension for Bronson Arroyo, $3MM contract for Ramon Hernandez, $2MM contract for Miguel Cairo, $1.75MM option for Jonny Gomes)
  10. Colorado Rockies – $40MM ($32MM contract for Jorge de la Rosa, $8MM contract for Ty Wigginton)
  11. San Francisco Giants – $29.5MM ($22MM contract for Aubrey Huff, $6.5MM contract for Miguel Tejada, $1MM contract for Pat Burrell)
  12. Florida Marlins – $27.5MM ($18MM contract for John Buck, $7MM contract for Javier Vazquez, $2.5MM contract for Randy Choate)
  13. Chicago Cubs – $26.1MM ($14.6MM option for Aramis Ramirez, $10MM contract for Carlos Pena, $1.5MM contract for Kerry Wood)
  14. Los Angeles Angels – $23MM ($15MM contract for Scott Downs, $8MM contract for Hisanori Takahashi)
  15. Minnesota Twins – $19.55MM ($9MM contract plus $5.3MM bid for Tsuyoshi Nishioka, $5.25MM option for Jason Kubel)
  16. Oakland A’s – $18.5MM ($6MM option for Mark Ellis, $5.75MM option for Coco Crisp $4.25MM contract for Hideki Matsui, $1.5MM contract for Rich Harden, $1MM contract for Brandon McCarthy)
  17. Pittsburgh Pirates – $17.75MM ($8MM contract for Kevin Correia, $5MM contract for Lyle Overbay, $4.25MM contract for Matt Diaz, $500K contract for Scott Olsen)
  18. Arizona Diamondbacks – $17.45MM ($10MM contract for J.J. Putz, $2.7MM contract for Geoff Blum, $2MM contract for Melvin Mora, $1.75MM contract for Xavier Nady, $1MM contract for Henry Blanco)
  19. San Diego Padres – $16.4MM ($11.5MM contract for Orlando Hudson, $4MM contract for Aaron Harang, $900K contract for Dustin Moseley)
  20. New York Mets – $14.8MM ($11MM option for Jose Reyes, $2.5MM contract for D.J. Carrasco, $1.3MM contract for Ronny Paulino)
  21. Seattle Mariners – $10.5MM ($7MM contract for Miguel Olivo, $2.5MM contract for Jack Cust, $1MM contract for Erik Bedard)
  22. Texas Rangers – $7.1MM ($6.25MM contract for Yorvit Torrealba, $850K contract for Matt Treanor)
  23. Baltimore Orioles – $5.58MM ($3MM contract for Koji Uehara, $1.5MM contract for Cesar Izturis, $1.08MM contract for Jeremy Accardo)
  24. Atlanta Braves – $5.15MM ($2.5MM option for Alex Gonzalez, $1.45MM contract for Eric Hinske, $1.2MM contract for George Sherrill)
  25. Houston Astros – $4.625MM ($3MM contract for Bill Hall, $900K option for Jason Michaels, $725K contract for Ryan Rowland-Smith)
  26. Kansas City Royals – $3.75MM ($2.5MM contract for Jeff Francoeur, $1.25MM contract for Melky Cabrera)
  27. Toronto Blue Jays – $3.5MM ($2.5MM contract for Edwin Encarnacion, $1MM option for Jose Molina)
  28. Milwaukee Brewers – $2.18MM ($1.4MM contract for Craig Counsell, $780K contract for Wil Nieves)
  29. Tampa Bay Rays – $2MM ($1.1MM contract for J.P. Howell, $900K contract for Joel Peralta)
  30. Cleveland Indians – $1.3MM ($1.3MM contract for Austin Kearns)

*Totals based on free agent contracts, extensions signed by players on the brink or free agency, options exercised this offseason and one international signing. Minor league deals are excluded.

Vizquel, Inge and Lilly signed extensions on the brink of free agency; their extensions count above, as does Arroyo's deal with the Reds. Troy Tulowitzki, Jay Bruce and Ricky Nolasco signed extensions long before free agency and their extensions don’t count here. The Twins’ bid for and contract with Nishioka count. All options exercised this offseason count except the options for Adrian Gonzalez, Omar Infante and David DeJesus. Those three players were traded after their teams picked up their options. Some teams, like the Brewers, have added payroll by trading for players, but those acquisitions do not show up here.

Using different cutoffs, Maury Brown of the Biz of Baseball recently calculated that total payroll allocation for free agents is now over $1 billion this offseason.

MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker

MLB Trade Rumors recently unveiled the MLBTR Transaction Tracker, a tool designed to help readers sift through thousands of baseball transactions according to a number of categories. You can search by team, transaction type, date, player, agency, general manager, free agent type, contract length and contract value. Not enough choice? Try combining a few of those fields and you can do some more advanced searches. Here are a few examples:

You can link to individual searches and share results on Facebook and Twitter. We link to the tracker under the 'tools' tab at the top of the page; here's the complete user guide. The possibilities with the Transaction Tracker really are endless, so we encourage you to try it out. 

Do Closers Fetch More When Traded Midseason?

Discussing the Mariners and David Aardsma today, David Cameron wrote, "There is a school of thought that closers garner more in return when moved at the deadline than in the offseason, though I haven’t seen much in the way of real evidence to support the assertion."

Looking at the last three seasons and offseasons, let's look at examples with the help of MLBTR's Transaction Tracker.  This post won't answer Cameron's question in a statistical sense, but it may help shed some light.

I found four closers who were traded during the 2008-10 seasons: Octavio Dotel, Matt Capps, George Sherrill, and Jon Rauch.  I've omitted the trades of Brian Fuentes, Chad Qualls, Kerry Wood, Billy Wagner, and Joel Hanrahan, as those five either weren't closing at the time of their trades or had prohibitive salaries. 

Five closers were acquired during the last three offseasons, not including this one: Rafael Soriano, J.J. Putz, Kevin Gregg, Jose Valverde, and Brad Lidge.  We're omitting Huston Street and Matt Lindstrom, who had lost their closer jobs before being dealt.  Gregg was on the outs in Florida but we'll include him.

More data points would be nice, but this is a start.  Teams overpaid to acquire Dotel, Capps, and Sherrill midseason, though Ned Colletti authored two of those deals.  The prices did seem lower for Putz and Valverde during the offseason, but not necessarily for Gregg or Lidge.  I think the conventional wisdom has value – contenders are more desperate for relief help during the summer, and with no free agent alternatives they're willing to surrender slightly better prospects for closers. 

Which Teams Might Offer A Chance For Saves?

Most relievers want to close; it's the most prestigious and lucrative bullpen job.  Browsing our list of unsigned relievers, Grant Balfour, Octavio Dotel, Brian Fuentes, Kevin GreggTrevor Hoffman, Chad Qualls, Jon Rauch, and Rafael Soriano have recent closing experience.  Surely Scott Boras will find Soriano a ninth inning job, while I imagine Fuentes and Gregg still expect to close as well.  Which teams might have openings in the ninth?

  • Orioles: They've got Koji Uehara and Mike Gonzalez already, but have been linked to Gregg.
  • Rays: If you're an agent, this is the team to call if your client is more interested in closing than in his 2011 salary.
  • Blue Jays: Jason Frasor is back, but the ninth inning is probably unsettled here.
  • Mariners: If they trade David Aardsma, they could sign a more affordable reliever and give him a shot to close.
  • Rangers: A week ago Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote that the Rangers are "unlikely to spend big for a reliever, even if they move righty Neftali Feliz to the rotation."  Frank Francisco and Mark Lowe are a couple of internal options, or the Rangers could sign someone affordable.
  • Braves: They've got youngsters Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel, plus veterans including new additions George Sherrill and Scott Linebrink.  They might be done with the bullpen.
  • Nationals: They've been linked to Gregg and were in on Jesse Crain.  GM Mike Rizzo said in November that he wants to improve the bullpen.
  • Pirates: Their Dotel gambit worked out this year, and the Bucs are known to be in on similar relievers despite the presence of Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek.
  • Closing jobs can be tough to come by, but at the moment there could be a half-dozen teams willing to give a reliever the title.  Beverly Hills Sports Council represents Fuentes, Gregg, Dotel, and Hoffman, so they've got an interesting situation to sort out.

Average Free Agent Prices

Using our free agent tracker, here are the average free agent prices for a single season by position so far this offseason.  Note that for utility players, our position assignments are somewhat subjective.

  • Catcher: $3.15MM.  Closest to average: Yorvit Torrealba.
  • First base: $6.53MM.  Closest: Lyle Overbay.
  • Second base: $4.35MM.  Closest: Bill Hall.
  • Shortstop: $6.41MM.  Closest: Miguel Tejada.
  • Third base: $2.58MM, which will rise when Adrian Beltre signs.  Closest: Melvin Mora.
  • Left field: $3.76MM.  Closest: Matt Diaz.  Without Carl Crawford: $1.4MM.
  • Center field: $970K.  Only two results here, Melky Cabrera and Tony Gwynn Jr.
  • Right field: $6.88MM.  Closest: Lance Berkman.
  • Designated hitter: $7.15MM.  Closest: Hideki Matsui.  Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, and Jim Thome are still out there.
  • Starting pitcher: $5.85MM.  Closest: Jon Garland.
  • Closer: $10MM.  Only two results here, Mariano Rivera and J.J. Putz.  Rafael Soriano, Kevin Gregg, and Brian Fuentes are still out there, while Bobby Jenks and Kerry Wood did not sign to close.
  • Right-handed reliever, non-closer: $3.02MM.  Closest: Koji Uehara, Dan Wheeler.
  • Left-handed reliever, non-closer: $2.47MM.  Closest: Randy Choate.

ACES Leading In Multiyear Deals

Top free agents often choose the Boras Corporation if they're looking for the maximum payday.  But there is evidence that mid-tier players should look to ACES if they crave the security of a multiyear deal.

So far this offseason, ACES is the leader in multiyear deals with six: Randy Choate, Ty Wigginton, Joaquin Benoit, John Buck, Jhonny Peralta, and Brandon Inge.  They have potential for one more with Grant Balfour.  Only one other agency has brokered more than two multiyear deals this winter.  Legacy Sports has done four: Orlando Hudson, Bobby Jenks, Carl Crawford, and Adam Dunn.

ACES is the unofficial multiyear deal leader for last offseason as well with eight agreements reached (three with the Phillies).  This winter we still have several remaining free agent multiyear deal candidates, spanning various agencies: Balfour, Adrian Beltre, Brian Fuentes, Kevin Gregg, Adam LaRoche, Carl Pavano, Scott Podsednik, and Rafael Soriano.  We'll also see multiyear extensions probably beginning in January and running into April.

Analyzing The Offseason’s Biggest Contracts

For just the third time in baseball history, three free agents have signed deals worth over $100MM in a single offseason. And Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth and Cliff Lee are far from the only players to cash in this winter. Adam Dunn, Derek Jeter and Victor Martinez all signed deals that guarantee them $50MM or more.

The last time as many as six free agents signed deals worth $50MM or more was the 2006-07 offseason, when the likes of Gary Matthews Jr. and Gil Meche were on the open market. The current offseason has drawn comparisons to the winter of 2006-07, but according to one barometer of the free agent market, teams have not yet matched the aggressive spending of four years ago.

A total of 41 free agents signed contracts worth $10MM or more in the 2006-07 offseason. Nearly two months into this offseason, 24 free agents have signed eight-figure deals, as MLBTR's transaction tracker shows*. Some players, like Adrian Beltre, Rafael SorianoAdam LaRoche, Kevin Gregg and Carl Pavano could push that total higher and it may surpass 30 by the end of the offseason.

The arbitrary $10MM cutoff does an admittedly imperfect job of gauging teams' willingness to spend. But the sheer volume of eight-figure deals shows that teams spent at least as aggressively four winters ago.

*Not including players who signed contracts after being posted by Japanese teams.

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