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MLBTR named 85 non-tender candidates back on November 2nd.  Since then, 23 of those players were cut loose early.  A couple more have signed new deals or been traded.  Here's an updated list of our speculative non-tender candidates for Thursday night's deadline.  Non-tendering a player makes him a free agent.  Be sure to bookmark our new non-tender tracker, as it will be constantly updated as decisions roll in.   

Position players

Willy Aybar
Travis Buck
Ryan Church
Jack Cust
Matt Diaz
Edwin Encarnacion
Josh Fields
Mike Fontenot
Kevin Frandsen
Alberto Gonzalez
Tony Gwynn
Scott Hairston
J.J. Hardy
Joe Inglett
Conor Jackson
Dan Johnson
Kevin Kouzmanoff
Fred Lewis
James Loney
Jose Lopez
Russell Martin
Jeff Mathis
Dioner Navarro
Wil Nieves
Augie Ojeda
Ronny Paulino
Brayan Pena
Jason Repko
Reggie Willits
Josh Wilson

Pitchers

Jeremy Accardo
Matt Albers
Blaine Boyer
Jared Burton
D.J. Carrasco
Todd Coffey
Clay Condrey
Lance Cormier
Kyle Davies
Manny Delcarmen
Zach Duke
J.P. Howell
Bobby Jenks
Jeff Karstens
Jensen Lewis
John Maine
Dustin McGowan
Dustin Moseley
Pat Neshek
Dustin Nippert
Hideki Okajima
Tony Pena
Glen Perkins
Chris Ray
George Sherrill
Joe Smith
Chien-Ming Wang

Type A relievers Frank Francisco and Jason Frasor were the only ranked free agents to accept their teams' offers of arbitration yesterday. Here's what we learned from last night's decisions:

The Facts

• 12 of 14 Type A free agents turned down arbitration (86%).
• 21 of 21 Type B free agents turned down arbitration (100%).
• In total, 33 of 35 ranked free agents turned down arbitration (94%).
• If you haven't done so already, click here for an explanation of how free agent compensation works, click here to check out our arbitration offer tracker and click here to read what we learned about the offers themselves.

What This Says About The Market

• It says teams are willing to spend and players know it. Players see lots of multiyear deals on the open market and are seeking long-term commitments instead of the security of a deal through the arbitration process.
• Though the market's generally good, Type A relievers still have a hard time convincing teams to surrender draft picks for them. Type A setup men like Juan Cruz have had trouble landing contracts in recent years, so Frasor and Francisco chose the security of their teams' offers.
• But one Type A setup man is taking his chances in free agency. Grant Balfour declined arbitration and told Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that he's confident his Type A status won't prevent him from signing a multi-year deal.

What To Expect In 2010 And 2011

• The supplementary first round will be longer than usual in 2011, a strong draft year.
• Some teams could be drafting early and often next June. The Padres and White Sox could gain three picks, the Twins could add four and the Red Sox and Blue Jays could pick up five extra selections apiece. The real winners could be the Rays, who stand to pick up as many as ten extra draft choices next year.

Today marks the deadline for the 35 free agents offered arbitration to decide whether or not to accept.  All of the decisions will be chronicled on the front page of MLBTR as well as in our handy free agent arbitration offer tracker.  Of the 35 offered, four unsigned players – Trevor Hoffman, Kevin Correia, Octavio Dotel, and Kevin Gregg, have already chosen to decline.  Another eight have new contract agreements: Jorge De La Rosa, Juan Uribe, Joaquin Benoit, John Buck, Jon Garland, Victor Martinez, Yorvit Torrealba, and Javier Vazquez.

That leaves 23 decisions for today:

Type A (12 players)

Grant Balfour
Adrian Beltre – lock to decline
Carl Crawford – lock to decline
Scott Downs – likely to decline
Adam Dunn – likely to decline
Frank Francisco – likely to accept
Jason Frasor
Paul Konerko
Cliff Lee – lock to decline
Carl Pavano – expected to decline
Rafael Soriano – lock to decline
Jayson Werth – lock to decline

Type B (11 players)

Randy Choate
Jesse Crain - expected to decline
Pedro Feliciano
Brad Hawpe
Aaron Heilman – may be leaning toward declining
Orlando Hudson – expected to decline
Adam LaRoche
Felipe Lopez
Miguel Olivo
J.J. Putz – likely to decline
Chad Qualls

As you can see, there about about a dozen decisions in question.  Type A relievers Francisco, Balfour, and Frasor have good cases for accepting, as they'll otherwise be saddled with the draft pick cost.  Konerko accepting would mean a one-year deal at a strong salary, something he may find appealing.

It's possible some of the Type Bs have handshake agreements to decline, as Vazquez and Hoffman did.  The only reason for a Type B to accept would be if they expect no multiyear offers and feel that they'd earn more in 2011 through arbitration than the open market.  Hawpe, LaRoche, and Qualls have to consider that route.

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Every club is looking for MVP-caliber production, but it's not easy to find. Here's a look at how teams around the American League acquired the players who got the most MVP votes in 2010. If there's one trend, it's that top Rays draft picks did exceptionally well in this year's balloting:

• Josh Hamilton – Trade - Hamilton's remarkable story has been well-chronicled; Rangers GM Jon Daniels acquired the former first overall pick from the Reds in the 2007 trade that sent Edinson Volquez to Cincinnati.
• Miguel Cabrera – Trade - Two weeks before Hamilton was traded, the Tigers acquired Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins for a group of players led by Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. 
• Robinson Cano – International Signing - The Yankees signed Cano out of the Dominican Republic as an amateur free agent in 2001. 
• Jose Bautista – Trade - The Blue Jays acquired Bautista from the Pirates for Robinzon Diaz in 2008. Before the Blue Jays acquired him, Bautista suited up for the Pirates, Royals, Devil Rays and Orioles.
• Paul Konerko – Free Agency - GM Kenny Williams re-signed Konerko to a five-year, $60MM deal after the White Sox won the 2005 World Series. It's safe to call that signing a smart one now that Konerko posted a .282/.365/.514 line over the life of the contract and averaged 31 homers per season.
• Evan Longoria – Draft - Tampa Bay selected Longoria with the third overall pick of the 2006 draft and he's been playing at an elite level since his 2008 rookie season.
• Carl Crawford – Draft - The Devil Rays selected Crawford in the second round of the 1999 draft and locked him up to an extension that kept him in Tampa Bay through two of his free agent seasons.
• Joe Mauer – Draft - Like Hamilton, Mauer was a first overall draft pick. The Twins selected him ahead or Mark Prior and Mark Teixeira in the 2001 draft and extended him after his 2009 MVP season.
• Adrian Beltre – Free Agency - The Red Sox signed Beltre to a one-year deal, giving him the chance to re-establish his free agent value. The third baseman did just that, clubbing 28 homers and a league-leading 49 doubles while playing stellar defense.
• Delmon Young – Trade - Young, the third first overall pick on this list, arrived in Minnesota in the trade that sent Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza to Tampa Bay.

More than half of ranked free agents received offers of arbitration from their teams this week. Clubs offered 35 ranked free agents arbitration (up from 23 last year). Here's what we learned from the flurry of arbitration offers.

The Facts

• If you haven't done so already, click here for an explanation of how free agent compensation works and click here to check out our arbitration offer tracker.
• Teams offered 14 of 27 Type A free agents arbitration (52%)
• Teams offered 21 of 38 Type B free agents arbitration (55%).
• In total, teams offered 35 of 65 ranked free agents arb (54%).

What This Says About The Market

• Teams are valuing draft picks highly.
• Why the extra emphasis on the draft? It's always been a cheap way for teams to stock their systems with talent, but this year is different. The 2011 draft class is strong, so having multiple high picks is a plus. 
• Since the collective bargaining agreement expires after 2011, there is a chance that there will be spending restrictions for the 2012 draft. That could make next year a big one for teams willing to spend over-slot on top early picks.
• Teams expect each other to spend aggressively. Players are more likely to turn down arbitration if they get multi-year offers on the open market. John Buck and Joaquin Benoit and others have signed deals that may encourage players to turn down arbitration in search of multi-year contracts.

What To Expect In 2010 And 2011

• The supplementary first round lasted 18 selections in 2010 and 17 selections in 2009, but the 2011 supplementary round figures to be considerably longer. Some players will accept offers of arbitration and others may sign minor league deals, so there's no way it will last 35 picks. Still, it wouldn't be surprising to see the supplementary round last 25 selections next year.
• MLB attempted to speed the offseason up, but the recent rush of offers may work against the league's goal. Teams will likely be reluctant to hand over a top pick for Grant Balfour, Frank Francisco or Jason Frasor, but once clubs sign free agents with higher Elias rankings, those relievers will cost a second rounder at most. Those three Type A right-handers will draw interest, but it may take a while for them to sign.

35 free agents were offered arbitration this year, 12 more than last year.  If you're not sure what offering arbitration means, click here to read our free agent arbitration primer.

The following players were offered arbitration today, and now have until November 30th to decide whether to accept.  Type As who turn down arbitration cost a draft pick for a new team to sign; Type Bs do not.

Type A (14 players)

Grant Balfour
Adrian Beltre
Carl Crawford
Jorge De La Rosa
Scott Downs
Adam Dunn
Frank Francisco
Jason Frasor
Paul Konerko
Cliff Lee
Victor Martinez
Carl Pavano
Rafael Soriano
Jayson Werth

Type B (21 players)

Joaquin Benoit
John Buck
Randy Choate
Kevin Correia
Jesse Crain
Octavio Dotel
Pedro Feliciano
Jon Garland
Kevin Gregg
Brad Hawpe
Aaron Heilman
Trevor Hoffman
Orlando Hudson
Adam LaRoche
Felipe Lopez
Miguel Olivo
J.J. Putz
Chad Qualls
Yorvit Torrealba
Juan Uribe
Javier Vazquez

Regarding my predictions yesterday, I was correct on 46 of 62 players.  That's slightly worse than my success rate last year, though I did predict that we'd see more than 30 total arbitration offers this year.  I was particularly surprised by the decisions on Vazquez, Hoffman, Guerrier, Podsednik, Correia, Dotel, Hawpe, and Qualls.  Vazquez and Hoffman were offered only because of gentleman's agreements that they'd decline. 

We may be seeing more arbitration offers this year due to more value being placed on draft picks, especially with a strong 2011 class.  Additionally, teams may have been more inclined to offer based on the expectation that players will decline in hopes of getting in on the lavish contracts given out so far. 

All 65 of the arbitration decisions are noted in our Free Agent Arbitration Offer Tracker, which will also show who accepts on November 30th.  The decisions are noted in our constantly-updated 2011 free agents list as well.

By 11pm central time tonight, we'll have arbitration offer decisions on 65 Type A or B free agents.  MLB Trade Rumors has created an awesome tool to help you keep track of everything in real-time: our new Free Agent Arbitration Offer Tracker.

You can filter the decisions by team and whether the player was offered arbitration, or both, with the "Filter" button.  In the "Offered" column, the word "Yes" or "No" is linked to the source story.  We will be updating the tracker constantly throughout the day, so be sure to bookmark and refresh.  Enjoy!

Teams must offer arbitration to ranked free agents by 11pm central time tonight if they hope to obtain compensation picks in the 2011 draft. Here's an explanation of how the process works.

Teams can choose to offer arbitration to their free agents after each season. If the player accepts, the team will get the player on a one-year deal at a figure determined by the arbitration process. Typically, players who accept arbitration get raises. If a player rejects arbitration, his former team gets nothing but compensation picks. 

A player can either be classified as Type A, Type B, or nothing based on his stats from the previous two seasons in certain categories, depending on his position. For example, first basemen, outfielders and DHs are rated based on the following categories: plate appearances, average, on base percentage, homers, and RBI. 

If a team signs a Type A free agent, they have to surrender a draft pick to that player’s former team. If the signing team placed in the bottom half of MLB teams, their first round draft pick is protected and they surrender a second round pick instead. 

Sometimes, teams sign more than one Type A free agent who declined arbitration from his former team. In that case, one team gets a top compensation pick and other teams lose out. The team losing the highest-ranked free agent obtains the best pick the signing team can offer and other teams fall in line behind the team that loses the top-ranked player.  In extreme cases, a team hoping to snag another club's first round pick can be stuck with their third rounder.  The Blue Jays might have hoped to get a pick in the #15-20 range from another team for A.J. Burnett after the 2008 season, but since the Yankees had already signed C.C. Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, the Jays received the #104 overall pick from the Yankees. 

Regardless of where Type A free agents sign, their teams obtain a supplementary round pick in the following year’s draft (plus the aforementioned pick from the team that signed the player).

A free agent can also be classified as a Type B based on his stats. Teams don’t have to give picks up to sign Type B free agents, but teams that lose Type Bs obtain supplementary round picks in the next year’s draft. 

Another rule to consider for Type As and Type Bs: the "losing" team receives draft pick compensation without offering arbitration if their free agent signs before the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to departing free agents (now November 23rd). For example, the Blue Jays didn't have to decide whether to offer John Buck arbitration; he signed early with the Marlins, so Toronto gets a supplementary rounder in 2011.

There’s also a third possibility – the free agent is not classified as Type A or B, and there is no draft pick compensation.

Over the years, many quality players have been drafted as the result of free agent compensation. Recent examples include Huston Street, Phil Hughes, Clay Buchholz and Colby Rasmus.

Last year, Rafael Betancourt, Carl Pavano and Rafael Soriano were the only ranked free agents to accept arbitration out of 23 offers. Today, 21 teams will decide whether to offer a total of 63 players arbitration. Click here to view Tim Dierkes' predictions and here to make a few of your own. 

This post is a modified version of one Tim Dierkes wrote in July, 2008.

23 free agents were offered arbitration last year, down one from the year prior.  This year, I predict that more than 30 players will receive offers.  I expect this mainly because of my feelings on the 65 individual candidates.  On a macro level, we could see more arbitration offers to free agents due to more value being placed on draft picks.  Additionally, teams may be more inclined to offer if they think players are more likely to decline due to the lavish contracts given out so far.

Last year I was correct on 58 of 70 (82.9%).  This year there are 63 Type A or B free agents, excluding Joaquin Benoit and John Buck.  So hopefully I'm right on at least 53 of these.  The deadline is tomorrow night at midnight eastern time, a week earlier than in years past.

Type A

• Grant Balfour – Yes, he will be offered arbitration
• Adrian Beltre – Yes
• Carl Crawford – Yes
• Jorge De La Rosa – Yes
• Scott Downs – Yes
• Adam Dunn – Yes
• Frank Francisco – No
• Jason Frasor – Yes
• Vladimir Guerrero – No
• Matt Guerrier – Yes
• Derek Jeter – Yes
• Paul Konerko – Yes
• Cliff Lee – Yes
• Derrek Lee – No
• Victor Martinez – Yes
• Bengie Molina – No
• Magglio Ordonez – No
• Carl Pavano – Yes
• Andy Pettitte – No
• A.J. Pierzynski – No
• Manny Ramirez - No
• Arthur Rhodes – Yes
• Mariano Rivera - No
• Rafael Soriano – Yes
• Miguel Tejada – No
• Jayson Werth – Yes
• Dan Wheeler – Yes

Type B

• Rod Barajas - No
• Lance Berkman – No
• Orlando Cabrera – No
• Randy Choate – Yes
• Kevin Correia – No
• Jesse Crain – Yes
• Johnny Damon – No
• Octavio Dotel – No
• Chad Durbin – Yes
• David Eckstein – No
• Pedro Feliciano – Yes
• Brian Fuentes – No
• Jon Garland – Yes
• Kevin Gregg – Yes
• Brad Hawpe – No
• Aaron Heilman – No
• Trevor Hoffman – No
• Orlando Hudson – No
• Aubrey Huff – Yes
• Gerald Laird – No
• Adam LaRoche – Yes
• Felipe Lopez – Yes
• Hideki Matsui – No
• Kevin Millwood – No
• Miguel Olivo – Yes
• Carlos Pena – No
• Scott Podsednik – Yes
• J.J. Putz – Yes
• Chad Qualls – No
• Jon Rauch – Yes
• Yorvit Torrealba – Yes
• Koji Uehara - No
• Juan Uribe – Yes
• Jason Varitek – No
• Javier Vazquez – No
• Kerry Wood – No

Thanks to Ben Nicholson-Smith, Mark Gonzales, and others who gave feedback on this list.