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Just in time for the offseason, our iPhone app is now available!  It is listed as Baseball Trade Rumors in the app store and costs $2.99.  You can search the store or just click this link.  The app has been described as "beyond belief" by legendary journalist Peter Gammons.

The bread and butter of the app is the customizable push notifications.  By default it sends an alert to your iPhone for all transactions, and you can also add alerts for any combination of players, teams, and leagues you desire.  If you want to be the first to know where Cliff Lee is headed, who the Tigers are looking at, or anything else hot stove-related, this app can accommodate you.

The headlines page of the app shows our 25 latest posts, no ads, easily refreshed.  Individual posts with hyperlinks can be viewed, of course.  You can also leave comments on MLBTradeRumors.com through the app.  Check it out today!

Please note: Version 1.0.1 fixed a bug that was affecting iPhone 3G and iPod Touch users.  If you have one of these devices and already purchased the app, just take the steps to buy it again and you will be able to download the update for free.

A look back at the first half of November 2009 reveals interesting parallels with what we've seen so far this month.  Last year the offseason began on November 5th, three days later than this year.  However, the offseason deadlines have been moved up for 2010, so we're still on a similar pace.  Burning up the hot stove a year ago:

Teams Extending Their Own Free Agents

• The Mariners signed Jack Wilson to a two-year, $10MM extension.  Perhaps Jhonny Peralta's recent two-year, $11.25MM deal is the parallel.  The Mariners do deserve credit for resisting Russell Branyan's demands for a two-year deal a year ago.
• The Braves signed Tim Hudson to a three-year, $28MM extension.  One of the few early deals that worked out, this could match up with Ted Lilly's three-year, $33MM extension.
• The Cubs were close to an extension for John Grabow, who ultimately signed for two years and $7.5MM.
• The Red Sox signed Tim Wakefield to a two-year, $5MM extension.
• The Angels signed Bobby Abreu to a two-year, $19MM extension, and also locked up GM Tony Reagins.
• The White Sox signed Mark Kotsay to a one-year, $1.5MM deal.  The Sox jumped out early this year too, re-upping Omar Vizquel.
• Several of these early extensions were at inflated prices, and in most cases teams would have been better off waiting.

Trades For Near Non-Tender Candidates

Mark Teahen, J.J. Hardy, and Jeremy Hermida were dealt.  Akinori Iwamura fits here as well, as a player the Rays would have cut loose but the Pirates found worthwhile.  None of them panned out.  A few who could be dealt prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline this year: Mike Napoli, Russell Martin, James Loney, Leo Nunez, Jason Bartlett, and Carlos Quentin.

Under The Radar Pickups

The Royals signed Wilson Betemit to a minor league deal, and the Nationals claimed reliever Doug Slaten off waivers from the Diamondbacks.  Both were more useful than expected.  The Royals have already made a couple of low-profile pickups this year in Joaquin Arias and Lance Zawadzki.  Willie Eyre, Travis Blackley, Brent Dlugach, Joe Mather, and Justin James also changed teams this month.

Free Agent And Trade Rumors

• The Nationals showed early interest in Mark DeRosa and Mike Gonzalez.  It appears they're being aggressive early this year too.
• The Yankees were focused on whether they'd retain Andy Pettitte, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui.  This year they've got bigger concerns with Pettitte, Derek Jeter, and Mariano Rivera.
• There were plenty of early suitors for Aroldis Chapman, who had not yet switched agents.  The Reds weren't known to be in the mix.  Of course, John Lackey, Matt Holliday, and Jason Bay were filling up our pages too.  This year it'll be about Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Adrian Beltre, Adam Dunn, and Victor Martinez.
• The big trade candidates were Roy Halladay, Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson, Milton Bradley, and Dan Uggla.  This year it looks like Prince Fielder, and Zack Greinke.  Matt Garza, James Shields, Matt Kemp, Mark Reynolds, Josh Willingham, and Uggla could also be popular rumor subjects.

Free agents can now negotiate with any team, but it would be a surprise to see more than a few Type As sign in the next two weeks. Clubs forfeit a top draft pick if they sign Type A free agents before the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to departing free agents. That means teams are probably going to wait until after November 23rd to sign Type A free agents who aren't guaranteed offers of arbitration. If the player's former team doesn't offer arbitration he won't cost anything despite his Type A ranking, so the signing team gets to keep its draft pick.

Some Type A free agents – Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee, for example – are definitely getting offers of arbitration from their former clubs. But the group of Type As below won't necessarily see offers of arbitration, so it seems likely that teams will wait until after the 23rd to finalize deals. Their patience could allow them to hold onto picks in the 2011 draft.

Grant Balfour, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, Vladimir Guerrero, Matt Guerrier, Ramon Hernandez, Paul Konerko, Derrek Lee, Bengie Molina, Magglio Ordonez, Carl Pavano, A.J. Pierzynski, Manny Ramirez, Arthur Rhodes, Takashi Saito, Miguel Tejada and Dan Wheeler could certainly re-sign with their former clubs in the next two weeks, but it seems unlikely that they'll reach deals with new teams before November 23rd.

It's time for the fifth annual MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Free Agents list!  The entire list of available free agents can be found here.

A note before we begin – this is a complicated puzzle, and I'll be satisfied if I'm correct on a quarter of these guesses.  If your favorite team seems under-represented, keep in mind that the list doesn't account for trades or every single free agent.  The linked player names go to our free agent stock watch pieces.

1.  Cliff Lee – Yankees.  I could be swayed toward the Rangers, but it seems the Yankees are more desperate for Lee.  The Nationals make an interesting dark horse.  I can see Lee getting a seventh year, as crazy as that sounds.

2.  Carl Crawford – Angels.  The Tigers and Red Sox should also be in the mix for the speedy left fielder, who is vying to become the first $100MM man without a 20 home run season on his resume.

3.  Adrian Beltre – Red Sox.  The Angels are a candidate, though I have a hard time seeing them win the bidding on the Boras client if they get Crawford.  If the Red Sox are not able to re-sign Beltre, I see them moving Kevin Youkilis to third base and finding a stopgap first baseman.

4.  Jayson Werth – Red Sox.  The Sox would have a crowded outfield, but they are known to like Werth and could view him as J.D. Drew's long-term replacement.  The Red Sox have already contacted Boras about Werth, according to ESPN's Gordon Edes.

5. Adam Dunn – Cubs.  The Nationals have held to a three-year offer.  Dunn doesn't want to DH, leaving the Cubs as the only other NL team I can see spending big at first base.  The question for the Cubs might be whether they can move Kosuke Fukudome's contract before Dunn signs.  The White Sox and Orioles may also have first base openings and Dunn on the radar.  Perhaps Dunn's unwillingness to DH will be tested by the Tigers, or they'll offer left field time. 

6.  Victor Martinez – Tigers.  They seem committed to Alex Avila behind the plate, but there aren't a ton of viable left-handed middle of the order bats out there.  Adding V-Mart might take the Tigers out of the market for a full-time DH type.

7.  Rafael Soriano – Angels.  As the best available reliever and a Boras client, Soriano should require a three or four-year deal.  I don't love the Angels-Soriano prediction, but I can't find a great match for the righty.  The Diamondbacks seek a closer, but this kind of expenditure doesn't seem like Kevin Towers' style.

8.  Mariano Rivera – Yankees.  Mo is still unstoppable as he approaches his 41st birthday, though it is outlandish to pay a reliever north of $15MM for 65 innings.

9.  Paul Konerko – White Sox.  Another tough one, if the Orioles look elsewhere and the Diamondbacks opt for someone cheaper.  The Nationals and Cubs will be seeking first basemen, but Konerko may not accept a pay cut on his $12MM salary after such a fantastic season.

10.  Derek Jeter – Yankees.  The most interesting part of Jeter's free agency may be the contract details.  I'll say four years, $65MM.

11.  Hiroki Kuroda – Pirates.  The Bucs are not typically big game hunters in free agency, but Kuroda represents a chance to add one of the better available arms with perhaps only a two-year commitment.

12.  Jorge De La Rosa – Royals.  Though De La Rosa at least gets groundballs, some consider him another Oliver Perez waiting to happen.  Much will depend on whether De La Rosa requires more than three years or $10MM annually.  The Pirates and Nationals seem like potential suitors as well, if he can't find common ground with the Rockies.

13.  Carl Pavano – Twins.  It's still strange to call Pavano dependable, but he's tallied 433 1/3 American League innings over the past two seasons.  He'd be a big loss for the Twins.

14.  Jake Westbrook – Cardinals.  There's optimism for a deal, which would really solidify the Cards' rotation.

15.  Aubrey Huff – Giants.  There is mutual interest for Huff and the Giants to strike a new deal.  If the Giants want to quit while they're ahead with him, both sides will have plenty of alternatives.

16.  Juan Uribe – Dodgers.  Uribe could be the Dodgers' new full-time second baseman assuming they non-tender Ryan Theriot.  But his versatility means he could also fit with the Twins, Mariners, Mets, Astros, Cardinals, Padres, Orioles, Reds, and of course back with the Giants.

17.  Carlos Pena – Nationals.  Quite a first base carousel could develop this winter, but Pena is a fit with Washington as they look to improve their first base defense.  Who knows – perhaps his first extended look at National League pitching will allow him to match Adam Dunn's 38 homers.

18.  Jim Thome – Rays. Thome, Vlad, and Manny should all find full-time DH jobs.  I can see the Rangers, Rays, and Athletics being the most aggressive in seeking a regular at the position.  The Tigers are a good fit for Thome if they miss out on V-Mart.

19.  Vladimir Guerrero – Rangers.  True, the Rangers already declined Vlad's mutual option, but that was a formality.  He is comfortable in Texas, and isn't going to find a huge offer elsewhere. 

20.  Manny Ramirez – Athletics.  Manny makes sense for Oakland on a make-good contract.  He had one of the better off-years I've seen, with his .409 OBP ranking second only to Thome among free agents.  Durability will be the bigger question.

21.  Magglio Ordonez – Blue Jays.  Maggs belongs in the AL.  The Blue Jays can make some room at DH if they move Adam Lind to first base, while still giving Ordonez some time in right field.

22.  Orlando Hudson – Cardinals.  He'd help the Cards improve on Skip Schumaker without breaking the bank.

23.  Derrek Lee – Brewers.  I can see the Orioles or Diamondbacks for Lee, who will have to settle for a one-year deal.  But Lee could land in Milwaukee as Prince Fielder's replacement and remain close to home.

24.  Lance Berkman – Diamondbacks.  If Berkman aims for a place he can DH part-time, the Rays, Blue Jays, or Rangers could work.

25.  Andy Pettitte – Retirement.  If the Yanks miss out on Cliff Lee, they could be scrambling if Pettitte retires.

26.  Jon Garland – Rockies. He's best-suited on an NL team looking for bulk innings.  The Rockies could be that club if De La Rosa departs.

27.  A.J. Pierzynski – Marlins.  They fit all of Pierzynski's preferences and are known to be in the catching market.  He also mentioned the Padres, Rangers, Rays, and Red Sox as potential fits if he doesn't re-sign with the White Sox.

28.  Miguel Olivo – Rangers.  The Red Sox, White Sox, Angels, Marlins, Reds, and Dodgers may also be looking for a catcher, so there's plenty of potential combinations.

29.  John Buck – Red Sox.  Buck has a supporter on the Sox in assistant GM Allard Baird.  They seem unlikely to hand the starting gig to Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

30.  Javier Vazquez – Nationals.  Vazquez has already expressed interest in pitching for the Nats.  His 2010 season was alarming, but there's still the upside of his fantastic 2009 with the Braves.

31.  Scott Downs – Red Sox.  Downs has the AL East experience to slot into a late inning role for the Red Sox or Yankees.  The Phillies and Angels could also be among his suitors, though a draft pick will have to be surrendered.

32.  J.J. Putz – Tigers.  Putz is officially back after a very strong season with the White Sox.  He may seek another shot at closing, but a chance to pitch for the Tigers close to home could be tempting.

33.  Brian Fuentes – Diamondbacks.  Fuentes will likely go where he has the opportunity to rack up saves.  The Braves could be another match if they don't stay internal for the ninth inning.

34.  Adam LaRoche – Orioles.  The Orioles are going to find a corner infielder one way or another; LaRoche is just one of many free agents they'll probably consider.

35.  Hisanori Takahashi – Phillies.  He's strong against southpaws and could spot start if need be, so the Phillies are a reasonable match.

36.  Pat Burrell – Padres.  Burrell had a nice run with the Giants, aside from the playoffs.  He could theoretically draw interest from the Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers as well.

37.  Joaquin Benoit – Rays.  His numbers for the Rays this year were so absurd, they might be willing to offer him a chance to close in 2011.  He'll probably draw interest from a dozen teams, so that could be the difference-maker.

38.  Kevin Millwood – Padres.  Perhaps Millwood will get a shot at being the Jon Garland of 2011.  The Padres will probably bring in one veteran starter, and it's a coveted place to pitch.  Millwood could be a match for the Pirates as well.

39.  Kevin Correia – Brewers.  I like Correia as a sleeper this year.  The Brewers could make a big rotation upgrade by way of trading Prince Fielder, and then add Correia at the back end of the rotation cheaply.

40.  Arthur Rhodes – Reds.  The Reds and Rhodes have mutual interest in a new deal, but the 41-year-old southpaw will be popular on the open market.

41.  Pedro Feliciano – Angels.  The Phillies and Angels are two teams that seem highly likely to import free agent lefty relievers.

42.  Grant Balfour - Yankees.  Balfour would be a solid addition at the back of anyone's bullpen.  The Yankees will have options, though Balfour has AL East experience.

43.  Kerry Wood - Cubs.  He wasn't eager to leave after the '08 season, and now the Cubs can fit him into their budget.

44.  Scott Podsednik – Reds.  Pods fills the Reds' left field and leadoff needs at what should be an affordable price. 

45.  Yorvit Torrealba – Dodgers.  After five seasons as the Dodgers' primary catcher, it seems likely that they'll move on from Russell Martin.

46.  Hideki Matsui – Mariners.  His choice will probably come down to playing time, and the Mariners need a few quality bats.

47.  Johnny Damon – White Sox.  They had interest a year ago, and Damon's price should be lower this time around.  He's not an ideal DH but he's still an upgrade for the Sox.

48.  Kevin Gregg – Braves.  I expect they'll add some kind of late-inning veteran with Billy Wagner retiring, and Gregg may be inclined to chase the save opportunities.

49.  Koji Uehara – Mets.  Uehara, 36 in April, was fantastic in 44 relief innings this year for the Orioles.  His price should be held down by the 200+ DL days he logged over the past two seasons.  The market is flush with interesting right-handed relievers, but Uehara may still have a dozen suitors.

50.  Brandon Webb - Nationals.  Interest appears mutual.  Unlike last year's Chien-Ming Wang experiment, Webb may require upward of $5MM.

Honorable mentions: Miguel Tejada, Vicente Padilla, Takashi Saito, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Brad Penny, Nick Johnson, Bill Hall, Frank Francisco, Jason Frasor, Jose Contreras

Non-tender candidates: click here

The offseason can truly begin now that teams no longer have exclusive rights to their own free agents. As the clock struck midnight, players gained the right to start negotiating with all teams. MLB and the MLBPA moved the offseason schedule forward this fall. Here are the dates you need to know:

• November 7th – Free agents can negotiate with any team
• November 16th-17th – GM Meetings, Orlando, Florida
• November 23rd – Deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their own free agents
• November 30th – Deadline for players to accept or decline arbitration offers from their former teams
• December 2nd – Deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players
• December 6th-9th – Winter Meetings, Lake Buena Vista, Florida
• January 18th – Teams and players exchange salary arbitration figures

 

Not all good young starting pitchers are locked up through their arbitration years – Carlos Zambrano, A.J. Burnett, Dontrelle Willis, Erik Bedard, Oliver Perez, and Joe Blanton either made it to their last arbitration year or all the way to free agency on the year-by-year path.  Wandy Rodriguez, Ricky Nolasco, Francisco Liriano, Chad Billingsley, Matt Garza, Jered Weaver, and John Danks are among the current crop of standout young hurlers who have not signed multiyear deals.  Yesterday Ben Nicholson-Smith analyzed the reasons why young pitchers are signed to contract extensions; today we're tackling the reasons why not.

Heath Risk And Performance Variance

Throwing a baseball 90 miles per hour repeatedly is not a natural thing, and pitchers' elbows and shoulders suffer the consequences.  As Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos said when he signed Ricky Romero to an extension, "I think the risks are pretty obvious with health. You’re always concerned with respect to health."  One National League executive elaborated: "Every pitcher is one pitch away from being hurt.  The risk associated with pitchers, compared to position players, is much higher.  That risk is not only injury but also performance.  Many studies show that – except for elite pitchers – performance varies much more than it does for hitters."

Sometimes it's difficult to separate health and performance variance.  Twins lefty Francisco Liriano had Tommy John surgery in November of 2006, and pitched pretty well when he returned in 2008.  His ERA ballooned to 5.80 in '09, however.  In 2010, more than three years removed from the surgery, he finally returned to Cy Young form.  A cautious approach can pay off.  Had the Mariners locked up Erik Bedard long-term before the '08 season, they'd probably owe him $12MM for 2011 and similar salaries for future seasons.

Pitchers Trying To Maximize Earnings

Carlos Zambrano, who did not sign an extension, earned $22.66MM for his three arbitration years spanning 2005-07.  Brandon Webb, on the other hand, signed an extension and banked only $12.5MM for his arbitration years - about 55% of what Zambrano made.  Also, Zambrano parlayed the leverage of approaching free agency at age 26 into a five-year, $91.5MM deal.  From the player's point of view, going year to year can net significantly more money if you're willing to forgo multiyear security.

Matt Sosnick, agent to Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, and Dontrelle Willis, is intimately familiar with the motivations for turning down multiyear offers. "Depends what the player’s personality is like and what the agent’s ego is like.  There are guys who will turn down that money, even if it’s a good deal for the player, just to be able to say they turned it down. I mean there certainly is at least one agent who is like that."  Sosnick was presumably referring to super agent Scott Boras.  "Boras is averse to extensions for everybody because he loves the marketplace," explained our NL exec.  Makes you wonder what the precedents Jered Weaver might set going year-to-year.  Of course the buck ultimately stops with the pitcher, who employs the agent.

Some players choose not to sign multiyear deals because of the ripple effect of below-market contracts signed by their peers.  Within a period of a few months in early 2008, James Shields, Adam Wainwright, and Fausto Carmona signed extremely team-friendly deals involving multiple club options.  It's understandable Erik Bedard wasn't in a rush to sign a similar contract coming off his best season.

Young pitcher extensions can be an issue of timing; our NL exec uses Cliff Lee's transformation to prove the point.  "If Cleveland had approached Lee when he was struggling in 2007 with a 10-year extension he would have jumped at the offer.  However, right now, as the top pitcher on the free agent market, Lee was right to wait and explore what he could get as a free agent."  Lee actually did sign a deal covering his arbitration years.  Because of a club option the Indians included in August of '06, Lee played for $9MM this year, less than half his market value.  Things will work out for Lee in the end, but he would have been arbitration eligible after the '08 season and a free agent after '09.

Big Market Teams Pay Extra For Flexibility

Certain teams just don't need to fret about the cost savings and certainty long-term pitcher extensions can buy.  The Yankees went year to year with Chien-Ming Wang, who won 38 games from 2006-07.  They later had the flexibility to non-tender the injured Wang after the '09 season.  Andy MacPhail, Orioles President of Baseball Operations, outlined the clout possessed by big market teams: "The Yankees have a philosophy of not negotiating with anybody until their free agent year.  Well, they can afford to do that because essentially they can always be the highest bidder if that’s what they choose.  When I was in Chicago, we generally waited until about the fourth or fifth year because A) we had money, B) we were a very attractive place for players, so we didn’t have to worry."

Late-Blooming Starters

For every Felix Hernandez or Clayton Kershaw, there's a Wandy Rodriguez or Jeremy Guthrie, pitchers who figure it out later in their careers.  Rodriguez was 29 when he posted his first sub-4.00 ERA season.  There was no reason to extend him before that; he wasn't established as an above-average pitcher.  Following a fantastic '09 season, Rodriguez and his agent Barry Praver aggressively attempted to jump from $2.6MM to $7MM in the pitcher's second arbitration year.  Wandy, who had a career ERA of 4.33 at the time, lost a hearing with the Astros and was awarded $5MM.  Now the pitcher is pushing for a multiyear deal.

What's Next?

Extensions for young pitchers remain popular, with young stars Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Josh Johnson signing this year.  On the other hand, deals given to Nick Blackburn and Scott Feldman might prompt teams to think twice about less-than-elite arms.  The real test may be yet to come, if Liriano, Weaver, Billingsley, Garza, and Danks raise the arbitration bar and reach free agency in their late 20s.

If they hadn’t signed extensions, Zack Greinke and Dan Haren would be hitting the free agent market and Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander would be preparing for their walk years. But like many effective young starters, Greinke, Haren, Verlander and Hernandez signed multiyear extensions before hitting free agency.

Not every extension becomes a success story, of course. Sure, deals like Ubaldo Jimenez’s or Adam Wainwright’s now seem team-friendly, but Nick Blackburn and Scott Feldman signed deals that their clubs probably regret. So why do teams commit millions of dollars to such a fragile, unpredictable group early in their careers? MLBTR surveyed agents and executives to determine the answers. Here are the results:

Savings Through Arbitration

Just because a player hasn’t hit free agency doesn’t mean he’s affordable. Just ask the Angels how much they like thinking about Jered Weaver’s upcoming raise. Good pitchers are well paid through their arbitration years, and teams can lock players in to modest raises if they sign them to extensions early.

Agent Matt Sosnick, who represents starters such as Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Dontrelle Willis, knows teams can avoid handing out massive raises with well-executed extensions.

“Look at the guys who had huge jumps,” Sosnick said. “If you’re a team and you look back and you could have made a deal that could have locked you into a [smaller] raise, would you have gone back and done that if you had the choice? You probably would have.”

One recent example of a big jump in salary came last offseason, when Jorge de la Rosa obtained a $3.6MM raise entering his final year before free agency. It’s easy to look back and envision deals that could have been, but it’s hard to commit millions to a pitcher who is always at risk of injury or ineffectiveness. Not much is guaranteed when it comes to starters, but every team must take calculated risks with pitchers to succeed. One National League executive says teams take on those risks because of potential savings.

“The main reason to extend a pitcher is to save money in future years,” the exec said. “If you take on the risk of giving a pitcher a long-term deal, you need to recoup savings that make the risk worthwhile.”

There’s a good chance that pitchers like Wainwright, Jimenez, Jon Lester and others would have earned more money through their arbitration years if they hadn’t signed extensions. The Cardinals, Rockies and Red Sox can take those savings and direct them at other needs because they took on risk early.

Team Control of Free Agent Years

Teams control players until they have accumulated six years of big league service time, but clubs can keep their best pitchers longer if they sign them to extensions. The Tigers signed Verlander for three of his free agent years and the Mariners did the same with Hernandez. The Tigers and Mariners committed about $20MM per free agent season, but they were never going to sign their aces to a hometown discount. If they can afford it, teams are better off keeping their top pitchers on the roster and off the open market.

But players only get so many chances on the open market, so agents sometimes prefer not to negotiate long-term extensions.

“Because there are deals where by far the best deal is not doing anything,” Sosnick said. “There are times when just making no deal and letting it play out until free agency is the best thing that can ever happen to you.”

Not every player is willing to sign extensions that include free agent seasons, but when good ones are open to long-term deals, teams can keep players for more prime seasons.

Luring Top Free Agent Starters Isn’t Easy

If the Yankees have trouble developing top starters (and even if they don’t) they can offer C.C. Sabathia $161MM and A.J. Burnett $82.5MM and still have enough to bid aggressively on Cliff Lee. But for teams like the Pirates, Brewers and Rays it’s much harder to attract and afford free agent pitchers.

It makes sense for small and mid-market teams to consider extending the pitchers they develop. That’s no doubt part of the reason the Pirates extended Paul Maholm and Ian Snell. Those extensions did not work out for Pittsburgh, but the Pirates have fewer ways of building a pitching staff. Unlike the Yankees or Red Sox, they cannot rely heavily on free agency.

The Rays extended Scott Kazmir and James Shields and while only one of those deals looks good at this point, it’s not hard to see why Andrew Friedman signed them. Top free agent starters aren’t signing in Tampa Bay, but the Rays can maintain a solid rotation if they extend their best homegrown starters.

It’s a Feel-Good Story For The Fans

Extensions are almost always feel-good stories. Teams don’t offer tens of millions of dollars to players who are slumping horribly or injured, so extensions usually provide teams with good P.R. That alone is no reason to extend a pitcher, but it could contribute to a team’s decision making.

Last year, for example, the Marlins faced pressure from MLB to spend before they extended Josh Johnson. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Marlins completed the extension partly to calm the league and please their fans. 

Cost Certainty

As the NL exec points out, it’s not just a question of appealing to fans or saving money.

“Along with those savings come cost certainty for the club and goodwill for the player signed and others in similar situations,” the exec said.

Cost certainty allows teams to set their budgets in advance and operate with more confidence about future payrolls. Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail ran a large market team (the Cubs) and a small market team (the Twins) before coming to Baltimore. He points out that some clubs – generally ones in smaller markets – have to invest in young talent early to set up predictable, modest arbitration raises.

“A lot of times, you’re making obviously a judgment about the player, his future and what his productivity’s going to be,” MacPhail said. “But you’re also doing it in light of the economic reality that your club faces.”

But we can’t say that teams in the league’s smallest markets are the only ones looking for cost certainty.

“No,” Sosnick said. “Because would that be to say that if the Yankees or Red Sox had a really good young player that they would not try to lock that player up for four or five or six years?”

Indeed, if cost certainty and potential savings through arbitration didn't appeal to the Red Sox, they probably wouldn't have extended Lester.

How It All Adds Up

There are plenty of reasons to be hesitant about offering extensions – more on that tomorrow – but risk is inevitable when it comes to pitchers. Injuries and unexpected dips in performance threaten to make any extension look foolish in hindsight. Pitchers get long-term security and millions of dollars when they sign an extension, but they’re not the only ones who stand to benefit. Teams can save money and keep top pitchers around for longer than they otherwise might.

Just in time for the offseason, our iPhone app is now available!  It is listed as Baseball Trade Rumors in the app store and costs $2.99.  You can search the store or just click this link.  The app has been described as "beyond belief" by legendary journalist Peter Gammons.

The bread and butter of the app is the customizable push notifications.  By default it sends an alert to your iPhone for all transactions, and you can also add alerts for any combination of players, teams, and leagues you desire.  If you want to be the first to know where Cliff Lee is headed, who the Tigers are looking at, or anything else hot stove-related, this app can accommodate you.

The headlines page of the app shows our 25 latest posts, no ads, easily refreshed.  Individual posts with hyperlinks can be viewed, of course.  You can also leave comments on MLBTradeRumors.com through the app.  Check it out today!

Just in time for the offseason, our iPhone app is now available!  It is listed as Baseball Trade Rumors in the app store and costs $2.99.  You can search the store or just click this link.  The app has been described as "beyond belief" by legendary journalist Peter Gammons.

The bread and butter of the app is the customizable push notifications.  By default it sends an alert to your iPhone for all transactions, and you can also add alerts for any combination of players, teams, and leagues you desire.  If you want to be the first to know where Cliff Lee is headed, who the Tigers are looking at, or anything else hot stove-related, this app can accommodate you.

The headlines page of the app shows our 25 latest posts, no ads, easily refreshed.  Individual posts with hyperlinks can be viewed, of course.  You can also leave comments on MLBTradeRumors.com through the app.  Check it out today!

85 players made our list of non-tender candidates, but a few fell short of our subjective 25% chance cutoff.  These are guys we can't quite envision being cut loose on December 2nd, but we can picture trades if the player's old team isn't keen on paying up.

• Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox.  Papelbon might be looking at $12MM in his final arbitration year.  Most likely the Red Sox will just overpay a bit and keep their closer.  But if they decide to go in a different direction they might find an interested club or two, if the price in players is low.
• Mike Napoli, Angels.  The Red Sox claimed him in August; certainly there will be trade interest.  We used Napoli's arbitration case as an example in this post; he could shoot for $6-7MM.
• Rajai Davis, Athletics.  The A's could employ a low-power outfield of Davis, Coco Crisp, and Ryan Sweeney, or they could shop Davis to a team seeking a center fielder.
• Carlos Gomez, Brewers.  The Brewers could turn to Lorenzo Cain and Chris Dickerson in center, making Gomez expendable.
• Leo Nunez, Marlins.  Clay Hensley might be able to close for the Marlins in 2011 at several million less than Nunez.  Though Nunez had eight blown saves this year, he had appealing peripheral stats.
• Jesus Flores, Nationals.  Flores will remain cheap despite being arbitration eligible, but Wilson Ramos may have pushed him aside.
• Josh Willingham, Nationals.  As Willingham's salary continues to climb, the Nationals could try to get more athletic in an outfield corner with Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth.  If they feel comfortable trying Mike Morse and/or Roger Bernadina in the other corner, Willingham could be trade bait.
• Lastings Milledge, Pirates.  He could be a quality fourth outfielder for the Pirates or another team.
• Jason Bartlett, Rays.  Trading Bartlett would save the Rays millions, and they could use Reid Brignac or Sean Rodriguez at shortstop.  Bartlett would definitely draw interest on the trade market.
• Carlos Quentin, White Sox.  Certainly there are teams willing to tender Quentin a contract for 2011.  Similar to the Willingham situation, the Sox could look for more athleticism in right field.