- MLB.com’s Bill Ladson spoke to Strasburg about his extension with the Nationals, (Twitter link to audio download), his motivation to sign now with free agency looming, the influence Tony Gwynn (his favorite player growing up and coach in college at San Diego State) has had on his desire to remain with one club and the team’s decision to shut him down in the midst of the 2012 playoff push in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. “He definitely had that sense of loyalty,” Strasburg said of Gwynn. “I think there were certainly times in his career where he could’ve gone other places, but the city, San Diego, kind of grew on him, and he became an icon in that city. I’m not about to say that I’m going to be on his level here in D.C., but I think you do have some sort of sense of loyalty to the team that did draft you, at least speaking for myself. So, when the opportunity presented itself that, here’s a fair deal presented to you, it didn’t really take long to make my mind up.”
Nationals Rumors
Harper To Appeal One-Game Suspension
Major League Baseball announced today that Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper has been suspended for one game for returning to the field of play after an ejection (during the team’s celebration of a walk-off home run) and subsequently cursing at home plate umpire Brian Knight, who ejected Harper for arguing balls and strikes from the dugout during Danny Espinosa’s ninth-inning at-bat. Harper is appealing the suspension, and as MLB.com’s Jon Morosi notes (Twitter link), Ian Kinsler won a somewhat similar appeal after he was suspended for a game in 2010 upon returning to the field to celebrate a walk-off home celebration with the Rangers. Kinsler, of course, didn’t fire expletives at the home-plate umpire in his return to the field. All that said, Knight’s decision to eject Harper appears fairly dubious in the first place; manager Dusty Baker told the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes that the majority of the Nationals’ roster was up on the edge of the dugout letting Knight hear it over what they felt to be an incorrect call (though the pitch, in retrospect, did clip part of the strike zone), and Harper didn’t use any profanity in his initial comments. Harper had been in an argument with Knight earlier in the game, Janes notes.
Nationals Extend Stephen Strasburg
7:00pm: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports that Strasburg’s contract does include limited no-trade protection (Twitter link). Passan also adds some context to the deferrals (links to Twitter), reporting that Strasburg’s 2023 salary is a staggering $45MM, but as Svrluga reported, he’ll receive just $15MM in that year, with the rest being deferred. The present-day value of the deal, when factoring in the $70MM worth of deferrals, is a bit north of $160MM, per Passan.
9:19am: In a move that has drastically altered next winter’s free-agent market, the Nationals have officially agreed to a seven-year extension with righty Stephen Strasburg. He’ll reportedly earn a guaranteed $175MM over that term, though the deal does come with some wrinkles.
First and foremost, Strasburg will take home only $15MM annually over the seven seasons of the contract (2017-2023), Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reports. The remaining $70MM will be deferred without interest and paid out in $10MM installments over 2024 through 2030. That payout structure obviously reduces the present value of the contract: per Svrluga, the club estimates that the deal would be for something like $162MM if those annual salaries were paid in full each year during the seven-year term.
The deal also affords Strasburg opportunities to opt out after its third and fourth seasons. (He’d keep the $25MM annually for the first three or four years, with the deferred amounts moved up.) Strasburg can also tack on $1MM annually for every season in which he reaches 180 innings. So far as has been reported, Strasburg won’t receive no-trade protection and there are no provisions relating to arm health.
Strasburg had been set to reach the open market after the year, and there had been no hint that a deal was in the works. The Scott Boras client currently sits atop the 2016-17 Free Agent Power Rankings of MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, and had every hope of matching or exceeding the $200MM+ contracts landed by aces Max Scherzer and David Price over the last two winters.
There are some major limiting factors in Strasburg’s case, of course, including his prior Tommy John surgery and injury-limited 2015 campaign. While the Nationals are known for their successful rolls of the dice on pitchers with questionable elbows, the long-term durability of Strasburg’s replacement UCL remains an open question. Additionally, despite generally excellent results, he’s never quite been as dominant as his peripherals would suggest and he’s only topped 200 innings in a season once.
Still, there’s plenty of reason to think that clubs would have lined up for a chance to add Strasburg this winter. He’s pitching in his age-27 season at present, meaning he is selling several younger campaigns than were pitchers like Scherzer and Price. And apart from a bit of a blip last year, Strasburg has been one of the game’s most effective starting pitchers.
In the aggregate, Strasburg has given the Nationals 818 2/3 innings of 3.06 ERA pitching in his seven years of major league action, with a sterling 10.4 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9. But ERA estimators are in accord in suggesting that he’s been even better, as Strasburg carries a 2.78 FIP, 2.72 xFIP, and 2.77 SIERA for his career.
Strasburg has a deep and varied arsenal, beginning with a pair of mid-90s fastballs. Though he’s now sitting just under 95 mph with the heater, well below his early-career numbers, Strasburg has never been wholly reliant on upper-tier velocity. He’s increasingly utilized a slider this season, joining with his already-stellar curve and change to give him five legitimate offerings.
Both sides clearly have their reasons for agreeing to terms, though it remains an unexpected strike given the righty’s combination of age, performance, and short time left to reach the market. Strasburg won’t need to worry about another injury or performance decline interceding before reaching free agency, and he’s clearly comfortable in D.C., which made him the first overall draft selection back in 2009. And for the Nationals, acting now not only represents a chance for a nice discount — particularly once the deferrals are accounted for — but prevents the need to bid for Strasburg’s services against other organizations in a market that is largely devoid of pitching talent.
It’s worth noting that the Nationals are intimately familiar with Strasburg’s health and work ethic, particularly after going through the infamous shutdown of 2012. Having helped spurred the surprising Nats to the front of the NL East, Strasburg was shelved for the end of the regular season and the postseason because he reached pre-determined limits in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.
That episode led to plenty of criticism of GM Mike Rizzo, but Strasburg has not had any elbow issues since. And it seems that the good will has paid off with this deal. It’s fair to note, too, that other pitchers who were handled differently (e.g. Kris Medlen) experienced renewed arm problems, though elbow health remains a murky and complicated subject.
Strasburg is now set to stay with Scherzer atop the Nats staff through at least 2019, when he’ll first have a chance to opt out in advance of his age-31 campaign. It’s fair to say that the rotation looks to be in solid shape for some time to come, as the organization also controls its other current starters for multiple seasons: Gio Gonzalez (through 2018), Tanner Roark (2019), and Joe Ross (2021). And that’s before considering top prospect Lucas Giolito, who has yet to crack the majors.
Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reported the agreement on Twitter. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the length and guarantee, as well as the inclusion of opt-outs, deferrals, and a $1MM annual incentive package (links to Twitter: 1; 2; 3; 4; 5). Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted details on the opt-out, as did Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted details of the incentives.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Angels Acquire Brendan Ryan
The Angels announced today that they have acquired shortstop Brendan Ryan from the Nationals in exchange for cash considerations or a player to be named later. He’ll join the Angels tonight and give them a defense-oriented replacement for the injured Andrelton Simmons, who requires surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb and is slated to miss the next six to eight weeks. Right-hander Garrett Richards, who is set to undergo Tommy John surgery, was moved to the 60-day DL to make room for Ryan on the 40-man roster.
Ryan, 34, has spent most of the past three seasons with the Yankees, hitting a combined .201/.244/.271 in a limited sample of 289 plate appearances. (Notably, the trade reunites him with former Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler, who is now the GM for the Halos.) Ryan has never been much of a threat with the bat, but like Simmons, he’s a very highly regarded defender at shortstop and should at the very least provide the Halos with quality glovework during Simmons’ prolonged absence. Ryan began the season with the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate, where he was batting .263/.305/.382 with one home run in 83 trips to the plate.
This past offseason, Ryan exercised a $1MM player option with the Yankees but found himself included with Adam Warren in the trade that sent Starlin Castro from the Cubs to the Yankees. Chicago would ultimately release Ryan, who inked a minors pact with the Nationals and (as MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman tweets) nearly made the Major League roster with a fine spring showing. Ryan is a career .234/.295/.315 hitter in 2872 Major League plate appearances with the Cardinals, Mariners and Yankees. He’s logged nearly 5700 innings at shortstop in the Majors and drawn a +99 mark from Defensive Runs Saved. Ultimate Zone Rating, meanwhile, pegs Ryan at +11 runs per 150 games played.
MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez first reported that the Angels had acquired Ryan (Twitter link).
Reactions To The Stephen Strasburg Extension
The Nationals’ move to lock up Stephen Strasburg came out of nowhere, at least so far as public knowledge is concerned, and it’ll have wide-ranging repercussions for the organization and the broader market. Strasburg bypassed a chance at a major free agent sweepstakes to stay in D.C. for at least three seasons — that’s when he’ll have the first of two opt-out chances — and pick up a guarantee of $175MM over seven years. It’s a highly significant contract for many reasons, so it’s no surprise to see plenty of reactions rolling in:
- Agent Scott Boras provides some interesting details on the signing to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. After both sides gauged interest this spring, the agent and owner Ted Lerner hammered out the agreement over the weekend, per the report. Strasburg and his wife wanted to ink long-term with the Nats, said Boras, “so I really moved aggressive[ly] to get this deal done.” The super-agent says that the contract rewarded the organization for its “ethically and medically driven” handling of Strasburg through the Tommy John process, which also “has to do with why Stephen is so comfortable in Washington.” From the player’s side, the deal obviously keeps him where he wants to be, but also holds onto some upside. “For me, the big thing was the flexibility of the contract,” said Boras. “Stephen has a lot of security, and the opportunity to stay or leave. It works out well for both parties.’’
- Dave Cameron of Fangraphs echoes that sentiment from an analytical perspective. He likes the idea of Strasburg taking the risk of pitching out the 2016 season off of the table, but also sees the merit in the club’s investment. As Cameron notes, Strasburg is younger than most free agent arms, and he could deliver plenty of value on the deal even if he ends up missing time over parts of it — particularly once the deferrals are accounted for.
- One notable element of this contract is that it sets a record for a Tommy John patient, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports notes. In the latest example of the Nationals’ investment in questionable elbows, Passan asks whether the organization is going against its own views of UCL replacement durability in making such a deal at this point in time. Jonah Keri of CBSSports.com also offers his thoughts, focusing in particular on the role of Boras and his cozy relationship with Nationals’ ownership.
- Jon Morosi of MLB Network argues that Strasburg’s absence from the coming free agent market could spur trade activity “far earlier than anyone expected.” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney likewise suggests that there’ll be increased focus on controllable starters from other clubs as a result of the move.
- I’m not sure I agree that the extension has a significant impact on this summer’s trade season, which already was likely to feature questions about high-quality starters who are currently under long-term control. Teams weighing deadline deals for starting pitching likely would not have changed their approach very much based upon the mere chance of landing Strasburg over the winter; after all, he would’ve been the clear prize and had multiple suitors, and his price tag would’ve been both astronomical and uncertain. Meanwhile, organizations with desirable trade assets may now actually see greater value in holding onto their arms, comfortable in the knowledge that there’ll be lots of demand even after the season. Plus, the Nats might well have been in the market for a rotation piece — and likely would’ve pursued Strasburg — had he not inked this contract, so the overall level of demand may not have changed much.
Nationals Acquire Martin Medina From Blue Jays
- The Nationals acquired minor league catcher Martin Medina from the Blue Jays in exchange for cash considerations, per Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. The 26-year-old was originally drafted by the White Sox in the 20th round back in 2011, but Chicago flipped him to Toronto last summer (also for cash considerations). He’s a career .244/.314/.334 hitter in the minors and has caught 30 percent of opposing base-stealers, but he’s yet to progress beyond the Double-A level.
NL East Notes: Harper, Wright, Appel, Braves
Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper is beginning to receive the “Barry Bonds” treatment, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, noting that the reigning NL MVP walked 13 times (including four intentional walks) in just 19 plate appearances over the life of a four-game series versus the Cubs. Harper, who also hit a sacrifice fly and was hit by a pitch during the series, incredibly recorded just four official at-bats. Rosenthal spoke to Harper, manager Dusty Baker, and Reds first baseman Joey Votto (arguably the game’s most patient hitter) about Harper’s approach at the plate and how favorably he compares to Bonds. While all of the interviewed parties agreed that Harper isn’t at Bonds’ level, Votto expressed admiration, opining that Harper could eventually deliver seasons with a .500 OBP and a .700 slugging percentage. Harper acknowledged that it’s difficult to exhibit patience even when he’s being pitched around. “You want to hit, you want to be excited, you’re trying to do everything you can to help your team win,” he said. “But you have to have the courage in the guys behind you.” Beyond faith in his teammates, Harper noted that selectively knowing which pitchers to battle against — Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke (pitchers that “are going to paint”) — is important as well. The interview is well worth a read in its entirety.
A few more notes from the NL East…
- David Wright is continuing to learn how to manage his spinal stenosis, a condition that will impact the remainder of his Major League career, writes Newsday’s Marc Carig. Wright explained to Carig that he had to test his limits earlier this season and thus played in four consecutive games, culminating in a day game after a night game, knowing that the club had an off-day the following day. Upon waking up on that fifth Day, Wright found that he could scarcely stand upright for more than a few minutes and had difficulty walking. “I learned right then that if I tried to do this during the whole course of the year, I’m not making it,” said the Mets’ captain. “It’s just not happening.” Wright’s condition means that manager Terry Collins will have to be judicious in his off-days, particularly during day games that follow night games.
- Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com spoke to Phillies farmhand Mark Appel about the team’s upcoming No. 1 selection in the draft, and Appel said that he hopes to get the chance to offer some advice to whoever is selected with that pick. “Looking back, it’s one of those things that it’s a blessing and a curse, it really is,” said Appel, who was selected No. 1 overall by the Astros in 2013 but traded to Philadelphia in the offseason Ken Giles blockbuster. “Whoever the Phillies take first overall, hopefully I’ll be able to meet him and share some of the things that I struggled with and failed at to make him a better player and hopefully see him realize the potential that he has.” The pressure, expectations and public nature of being selected first overall are “hard to explain,” Appel said, admitting that he placed too much pressure on himself after being selected by Houston. Appel is off to a better start with the Phillies, having pitched to a 3.00 ERA through his first 27 innings at Triple-A, although as Seidman points out, the 13 walks and 39 overall baserunners he’s surrendered in that time still suggest that he has some work to do.
- Braves GM John Coppolella and vice chairman John Schuerholz discussed the club’s historically bad start with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. The pair continued to dismiss the notion that the team is tanking, and Nightengale writes that the Braves’ hope was to start out like the Phillies have this year — winning games while in the process of rebuilding. “It’s my first year as a GM,” said Coppolella. “I didn’t want to have the worst record ever.” Nightengale draws a parallel between the 2016 Braves and the 2014 Cubs, noting that there were many cries for president of baseball operations Theo Epstein’s dismissal at the time. The Cubs, of course, have baseball’s best record just two years later, and the Braves’ front office that their farm system, built in a rebuild similar to Epstein’s, will also yield quick results. Also of note, Nightengale adds that the GM continues to vow that Freddie Freeman will not be traded, and Freeman himself voiced a desire to see the rebuild through and spend his career in Atlanta. “I owe everything to this organization,” said Freeman.
Daniel Murphy Becoming Offensive Powerhouse
- Thanks in part to his ridiculously hot start this season (.402/.448/.654 with four home runs in 116 plate appearances), Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy has compiled a 142 wRC+ over the past calendar year, including playoffs, to put himself in company with stars like Buster Posey and Anthony Rizzo. His resounding success is no accident, writes FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron, who points to some meaningful adjustments Murphy has made to facilitate his offensive explosion. For one, Murphy has changed his stance, as tweeted by Mike Petriello of MLB.com, and is now both less upright and closer to the plate than he previously was. He has also markedly increased his pull percentage each year since 2013 and is hitting fewer balls on the ground, leading to more line drives and extra-base hits. While Cameron doesn’t expect Murphy to be the best offensive second baseman in the game going forward, it seems the Nats may have gotten themselves a bargain when they signed the ex-Met to a three-year, $37.5MM deal in the offseason.
Rosenthal: Nats Likely To Have Interest In Chapman, Miller
- Despite the presence of Jonathan Papelbon, the Nationals will likely be in the hunt for Yankees closers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller if the Bombers make them available over the summer, Rosenthal reports. The Nats were interested in both as recently as the winter, according to Rosenthal, who cautions that their ownership might not allow the franchise to take on payroll during the season. Both Chapman ($11.33MM) and Miller ($9MM) are expensive, and the Nationals been restricted to cash-neutral trades at recent deadlines.
NL East Notes: Neris, Edgin, Mattingly, Strasburg
Phillies right-hander Hector Neris has rapidly risen through the club’s ranks in the bullpen, pitching in a setup capacity at the moment and with a future as a potential closer, manager Pete Mackanin tells Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. However, as Salisbury reports, Neris was almost never part of the organization at all. Neris nearly had an agreement with the Royals as an 18-year-old out of the Dominican Republic, but Kansas City backed out of the deal because they doubted the validity of his documentation. It wasn’t until two years later that he was discovered by Phillies scouts, who preempted a scheduled workout with 12 other teams with an offer to sign for what now seems an extreme bargain: a $17K signing bonus. Six years later, Neris is armed with a fastball that can touch the mid-90s and a splitter that Mackanin terms an “invisible” pitch and catcher Carlos Ruiz calls one of the best he’s ever seen. Neris has a 1.04 ERA with a 27-to-4 K/BB ratio through 17 1/3 innings this year on the heels of 40 1/3 innings with a 41-to-10 K/BB ratio in 2015.
More from the NL East…
- The allotted time for Josh Edgin’s minor league rehab assignment is nearly complete, but as MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes, the Mets lefty is likely to be optioned to Triple-A at the completion of that window to continue building back up from 2015 Tommy John surgery. Specifically, DiComo writes that Edgin isn’t yet pitching on back-to-back days, and his velocity, which most recently topped out at 88 mph, is a far cry from the 92-93 mph he could throw prior to undergoing the operation.
- Marlins manager Don Mattingly is making a strong impression in his first year on the job, writes FOX’s Ken Rosenthal in a notes column. The former Dodgers skipper drew nearly identical praise from assistant GM Mike Berger and coach Perry Hill in separate interviews, Rosenthal notes, for the manner in which he commands accountability and his attention to detail. Berger called Mattingly “the right voice at the right time” and added that Mattingly addresses issues that arise “in a way that makes you feel like a million bucks.” The Marlins have had a tumultuous week, with the 80-game suspension of Dee Gordon still looming large over the club, but the club has nonetheless won nine of its past 10 games.
- The Nationals’ decision to shut down Stephen Strasburg after 159 1/3 innings in 2012, his first season back from Tommy John surgery, has perhaps helped to pave the way for him to sign with another club this winter, writes MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. Strasburg’s arm has held up well since that controversial decision, and he’s now poised to hit the open market this coming winter and break former teammate Jordan Zimmermann’s $110MM record for a post-Tommy-John pitcher. While Morosi doesn’t specifically touch on this, it seems particularly difficult to envision the Nats retaining Strasburg in light of their struggles in signing free agents this past offseason due to their need to include deferred money in each of their contract offers. Morosi speculates that Strasburg could receive more than $150MM over six years, which is perfectly reasonable but strikes me as conservative for Strasburg, who will pitch the majority of next season at the age of 28. As Tim Dierkes noted recently in placing Strasburg atop MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, agent Scott Boras seems likely to target $200MM+, and it’d be a surprise if Strasburg (assuming health) didn’t land an opt-out clause as well.
