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Mark Mulder Projection

A little Sunday reading for you:

Check out my Mark Mulder projection over at RotoAuthority.

Read why Aaron Gleeman thinks the Twins' latest signing will be an "unqualified disaster."

Find out what the Knicks are up to in the trade market over at HoopsBuzz.


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The one thing Mahk Moda has goin for him is hes throwing more groundballs now. His K's are going down, but if he keeps the ball down, he can still be effective.

Mulder is crap.

A question about his indicators: his K/9 has gone down in the last two seasons and that may be a concern, but doesn't the higher GO;FO factor in in this decrease? And as a general question, why is it that a pitcher with a decreasing K/9 is immediately flagged as in decline when other indicators like the aforementioned gb:fb can account for the way he gets outs? Is there a way to make those stats converge in order to get a true indication of a pitcher's future success?

I have seen the G/F argument presented many times. The thing is, the formula used to compute a projected ERA doesn't have that as an input and it's still quite accurate. It doesn't have strikeouts, either. It's just hits, HR, and walks.

There's no doubt Mulder's getting more and more groundballs, but the only way for that to really pay off is if his hit rate stayed constant. It has increased in each of the past four seasons. So while he's definitely become a different type of pitcher, he's still getting worse each year. At least that's how I see it.

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