2007 Free Agent Market: Starting Pitchers Part 4

2006 League Averages for Pitchers:
AL: 4.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 3.20 BB/9, 6.38 K/9, 1.14 HR/9
NL: 4.56 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 3.43 BB/9, 6.60 K/9, 1.12 HR/9

Mark Redman - The Royals inexplicably failed to trade the 32 year-old lefty this July.  Redman has only posted a sub-5 ERA in one month out of the entire season (June).  He's earning $4.5MM for his efforts.  He'll probably end up as someone's fifth starter next year.

Comments

[start_wearing_purple]

I think Zito will probably get more money than Schmidt simply because he's younger. Too bad though.

Smoltz is a 10-5 man so I think it's a safe bet he's gonna stay in Atlanta. Especially with Atlanta having a bunch of kids who are inheriting roiles in the starting rotation.

As for Ponson, I went to an Orioles game a while back and saw Ponson pitch (back when people called him an ace). All I could do was sit and wonder if that was ace material then what do you call people like Pedro, Randy Johnson, or Greg Maddux.

[Blue]

Schmidt wants to be a Mariner? What a waste!

[Yu Hsing Chen]

I wonder if teams like the Devil Rays will start throwing out moneys.. in truth, if they go grab a top line righty ace (say Schidmt or Mussina) and find a reasonablly priced guy with experience to lead their pen (say.. Bob Wickman? ) and work on their approach on offense (aka actually getting on base so all those home runs actually get you some more runs in.) and maybe and a veteran leader (Mike Piazza?) .. they could be comepetetive..

and all this would be what... 20M or so at best to their payroll? they sit at 35 right now, 55 is still by far the lowest payroll in the AL east... and yet if they pull this off they might at least have a shot at a winning season and those guys would be good for bringng up a real team charator

Also Roto, you think they might shop one of their OFs this off season? Rocco Bodelli could net a lot of goodies from the Dodgers or Rockies.... and while he is a great player at a great price.. his health risk and the fact that the Rays are stocked with OFs might make trading him a good idea.

[was385]

Purple, I am a Braves fan and if the Braves front office wants to move Smoltz to a contender, he will accept the trade. Smoltz has said he will do whatever is best for the team. I would hate to see him go, but he wants to see this team win whether on it or not. Great Player

[start_wearing_purple]

was, I think Smoltz still has gas left in the tank and he'd make a great mentor to the young Atlanta staff. I think it would be a silly move.

Yu, The D-Rays promised Pinella they'd throw some money into the team... I just don't see them doing it in the near future. Though if they did get a schmidt on their team a one-two punch of kazmir and schmidt would make them scary.

[bobo]

How about Schmidt to Arizona? They could certainly use a true ace to go with the rest of their decent rotation and high-upside offense...

Agree that the Rays getting a top starter makes sense too - Schmidt moreso than Zito because he is more high risk/high reward, and the Rays will need everything to break right to compete with the Sox/Yankees.

Redman back to Pittsburgh? Seems like the kind of silly move they'd make.

I still think the most likely place for Pettitte is back to NY with an incentive-laden deal.

After seeing Ponson pitch for the Yankees, I think there's a _slight_ chance he could make a decent setup man. Someone (KC, Baltimore?) will give him that chance I'm sure.

I still bet Radke stays with the Twins with a one-year deal.

[dave]

Bobo, Brandon Webb is not enough of a true ace for you?

[bobo]

I reread what I wrote and your right, it came out like that. I meant Schmidt would be to Webb as he would be to Kazmir in TB. But yeah, there's no way you'd know that from what I wrote.

But given that the geniuses over there are removing Cruz (when he finally is getting stretched out enough to go more than 5 innings) in favor of Gonzalez and Vargas, I don't have much hope for the future of their roation.

[Rayman]

Don't sleep on the Indians. The FO has committed to spending more money, and although the starting rotation isn't a big weakness, don't be surprised if they are in the running for one of the top-tier starters.

[was385]

The indians need to solve their bullpen problems before they go after a top starter. Believe me it is painful to have a crappy bullpen. I saw it this year with the braves before they got Wickman and Baez.

[was385]

The indians need to solve their bullpen problems before they go after a top starter. Believe me it is painful to have a crappy bullpen. I saw it this year with the braves before they got Wickman and Baez.

[was385]

The indians need to solve their bullpen problems before they go after a top starter. Believe me it is painful to have a crappy bullpen. I saw it this year with the braves before they got Wickman and Baez.

[was385]

The indians need to solve their bullpen problems before they go after a top starter. Believe me it is painful to have a crappy bullpen. I saw it this year with the braves before they got Wickman and Baez.

[was385]

what the hell is wrong with this thing? Why is mine posted 4 times?

[bobo]

I don't know if it's even possible to ever solve bullpen problems (short of signing 5 closers for $10M+ each). With the Indians especially, it's clear how unpredicatable relievers can be. Sometimes it's small sample size, sometimes guys just stop striking people out and lose all command of the strike zone, and of course there's the normal injury risk associated with pitching.

Looks like the Twins are this year's version of the Indians.

Truly dependable middle relievers will either become closers, and/or have their prices skyrocket. I bet Shields would get $6M as a FA.

[Rayman]

was385, that's the thing. The Indians WILL fix the bullpen AND go after a starter and/or a big bat in the offseason. Dolan has already promised a big payroll hike in the offseason. "North of 65 million" has been the buzzword. Considering the payroll is somewhere between 40-50 million right now, that's alot of money to play with.

[was385]

still not a lot of money. with some of these teams dishing out upwards of 7 and 8 million a year for closers

[Yu Hsing Chen]

I think the key to build a good bullpen is to get one to two reliable guy as closer / setup and try to make yourself flexible with the rest. (i.e sign a few vets that had success before at low prices and keep lots of young guys ready)

Of course, even then it might not work out... the Yankees and Red Sox both used this approach basically, but it is working out for the Yankees (since they got Ron Villone and Scott Proctor both having good years) while not working with the Red Sox (since Taveraz and Seanez are both bombing and so are all the kids)

Considering that the D-Rays have a payroll 10M lower than the Royals ... they SHOULD be able to spend another 20M without a sweat. of course, that doesn't necessarily mean they WILL do it though.

[bobo]

Yep, I agree, Yu Hsing. But even Villone has been lucky this year. Proctor looks great right now, but then again so did the entire Indians bullpen last year.

I think you're right about getting (at least) a couple solid guys, and then put yourself at least in a position to end up with some other good arms - both vets and younger players.

But my point is that Tavarez was one of the best setup men available, and while his k and bb numbers weren't amazing they were very good, and he's just been awful this year. His K/BB is half of what it was last year. Maybe part of it's due to switching leagues, but that's extreme. And stuff like this happens all the time.

I think teams due an awful job at judging relievers based on their ERAs which is often based on an abnormally low hit rate, so they're victims of the sample size.

But like I said, there's something else going on, where we see extreme fluctuations in K/BB rate - something that should be more constant or at least follow more linear trend lines.

I've got no explanation right now.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

I agree that signing Taverez wasn't a bad idea, he and Ron Villone are essentially identical except that Villone was a lefty .

Villone vs Taverez was simply a gamble that the Yankees won. Villone was a little better option, but not really to the extend that they are showing now. (although the Taverez contract is very crappy.. he cost MORE than Ron Villone.. and they have to keep him next year too .. ewww)

Let's not even start on what the seemingly indestructable arm (at least so far) of Scott Proctor have meant to the Yankees...

The Red Sox was in a inferior position to begin with due to having too much money stuck on the now usless Keith Foulke (I'm sure they are glad he'll finally be gone after this year) while the Yanks obviously have an advantage over everyone simply by having Rivera.

no one else besides Papalbon have really been good for their pen from their farm is also a bit of tough luck on their part, then again, having Papalbon in itself was already great luck. Yankees really only have Scott Proctor, while the other kids really didn't contribute in key situations.

Next year Boston will be without Timlin and Foulke (thank god) it will be interesting how they rebuild the pen, I suggest just go and sign one reliable reliever that can setup and that's it. thier other kids SHOULD be more helpful next year. and Taverez will hopefully be slightly better.

[Kramerica Industries]

The Red Sox did nothing on deadline day and now they may be regretting it just like i said they would 3 games back in both the division and WC they are trying to acquire another oriole that blew the game against the yankees last night.

http://www.projo.com/redsox/content/projo_20060816_16rsoxjo.320f082.html

This team is done just another prospect on his way out for another Tavarez

[Rayman]

was385, who do you see as the elite closers on the market? I think the solution could potentially come in house.

[Yu Hsing Chen]

The only great closer out there this winter is Eric Gagne... whom could be a bargin if he manage to stay healthy.

In fact, there are a couple of other health risk closer options out there this winter, Octavio Dotel and Kerry Woods anyone?

A club that want veteran leaderships to grow their young relievers could look to guys like Bob Wickman, Keith Faulke or Mike Timlin...