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Daisuke Matsuzaka Projection

I've thrown my hat into the ring with a Daisuke Matsuzaka projection.  Check it out at RotoAuthority.

My 2007 RotoAuthority Fantasy Baseball Guide should be available for $9.99 in mid-January.  Brace yourself.

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I'd be happy with those numbers.

Those numbers would be pretty solid for a guy in his first year in the AL East. I think he'll probably do better in his first year though due to a variety of factors. First of all, as many Japanese baseball enthusiasts have pointed out, Japanese hitters are actually harder to strike out. They're better at protecting the plate and making contact. Matsuzaka's K/9 rating probably won't be hurt by going to the majors but he'll give up more home runs because while American hitters aren't as good at protecting the plate they are better at hitting the ball out. Next, Japanese pitchers have traditionally done rather well in their first years in the majors because unlike rookies they have professional level stuff and control but like rookies are relatively unknown and badly scouted. Lastly, the Defensive Efficiency rating which Roto is using to judge Boston's defense is a rather flawed system. The percentage of balls that are put into play and turned into outs has much more to do with the pitcher on the mound and the ballpark they're in that it does the defense on the field. Boston is not one of the worst defenses in baseball. I'm sure their defensive efficiency rating was also hurt by bad range at second and right field. Both positions will be replaced by fielders with much better range.

Regardless any ERA under 4.00 (the pessimistic number) while pitching over 200 innings is worth the money in the AL East while pitching at home in Fenway Park. I just hope the pitching in 2007 isn't as sad as it was in 2006. I hate bad pitching no matter what team has it.

I think that is also a pretty solid prediction, but its all how it plays out.

The wins seem right, but if Beckett can put up 16 wins with a 5era in 2006..

I have always thought of Matsuzaka, that I don't know if he will be an ace, or a bust, but he is talented enough that his bust is still better than what most other pitchers can put out in a good year.

Good projections. Basically through all four of those projections you get a line somewhere around 15+ wins, 3.4-3.7 era, whip around 1.2 and a k/9 around 7.5. Those are strong numbers, and while they may not be $100 million numbers, he should end up being a more than solid pitcher who can match up with most anyone in the AL East. In this case, since the Sox had the money to spend, I think it was worth it since now they'll have the strong pitcher and the Yankees won't.

Good projections. Basically through all four of those projections you get a line somewhere around 15+ wins, 3.4-3.7 era, whip around 1.2 and a k/9 around 7.5. Those are strong numbers, and while they may not be $100 million numbers, he should end up being a more than solid pitcher who can match up with most anyone in the AL East. In this case, since the Sox had the money to spend, I think it was worth it since now they'll have the strong pitcher and the Yankees won't.

Was the fact that Daisuke pitched in a 6 man rotation considered? That's pretty normal in Japan but unheard of in the US.

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