2007 New York Mets

The Mets are featured today in our team outlooks.  You can click here to see past outlooks.

Omar Minaya’s contract obligations:

C – Paul LoDuca – $6.5MM
C – Ramon Castro – $0.85MM
1B – Carlos Delgado – $14.5MM – $1.75MM from FLA = $12.75MM
2B – Jose Valentin – $3.8MM
SS – Jose Reyes – $2.5MM
3B – David Wright – $1MM
IF – Julio Franco – $1.1MM
IF – Damion Easley – $0.85MM
LF – Moises Alou – $7.5MM
CF – Carlos Beltran – $12MM
RF – Shawn Green – $9.45MM – 6.45MM from ARI = 3.05MM
OF – Endy Chavez – $1.725MM
OF – David Newhan – $0.575MM

SP – Tom Glavine – $7.5MM
SP – Orlando Hernandez – $4.5MM $0.5MM bonus = $5MM + incentives
SP – Oliver Perez – $2.325MM + incentives
SP – Chan Ho Park – $0.6MM + incentives
SP – John Maine – $0.38MM

RP – Billy Wagner – $10.5MM
RP – Scott Schoeneweis – $3.6MM
RP – Jorge Sosa – $1.25MM
RP – Duaner Sanchez – $0.85MM + incentives
RP – Aaron Heilman – $0.38MM
RP – Ambiorix Burgos – $0.38MM
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $0.38MM

Injured/Suspended/Minors:

SP – Pedro Martinez – $14MM (could return from rotator cuff surgery in July)
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $1.65MM
SP – Aaron Sele – $1MM + incentives
SP – Alay Soler – $0.93MM
RP – Guillermo Mota – $1.8MM – $0.55MM from steroid suspension = $1.25MM
RP – Dave Williams – $1.25MM (out til June from neck surgery)
RP – Jon Adkins – $0.38MM
RP – Juan Padilla – $0.38MM
OF – Ben Johnson – $0.38MM
OF – Lastings Milledge – $0.38MM

That’s my take, with the fifth outfielder job and perhaps last bullpen spot unsettled.  The payroll seems to be about $110MM, not terribly different than last year.

The Mets were third in runs scored in 2006, and that should continue.  Moises Alou replacing Cliff Floyd is a nice touch.

The defense looks pretty good overall, with only Delgado and Alou as the obvious weak spots at their offense-minded positions.

Much ado has been made about the Mets’ rotation, which appears to lack a "#1" starter.  I don’t see this as a big regular season problem given a strong offense and bullpen.  Rather than throw down a billion dollars on Barry Zito, Omar Minaya spread his risk among many starters.  He’s got low-upside Sele types but also the potential of Pelfrey and Perez.  If nothing’s working when July approaches, Lastings Milledge could make excellent trade bait.  Anything Pedro gives them late in the summer is gravy.

As I mentioned earlier, the bullpen looks deep. Even with Sanchez a question mark, the Mets will get through the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings.  They’d love for Burgos to step in and be a lights out seventh inning option, and a step forward in control plus the National League could get his ERA under 4.

Right now I have a hard time picking the Mets or Phillies to win the NL East.  The Phils should have a better rotation and comparable offense.