2007 Minnesota Twins

Next up we have the Twins, who have an uphill battle in a tough division.

Terry Ryan's contract obligations:

C - Joe Mauer - $3.75MM
C - Mike Redmond - $0.95MM
1B - Justin Morneau - $4.5MM
2B - Luis Castillo - $5.75MM
SS - Jason Bartlett - $0.38MM
3B - Nick Punto - $1.8MM
IF - Jeff Cirillo - $1.5MM + incentives
IF - Luis Rodriguez - $0.38MM
LF - Rondell White - $2.5MM
CF - Torii Hunter - $12MM
RF - Michael Cuddyer - $3.575MM
OF - Lew Ford - $0.985MM
DH - Jason Kubel - $0.38MM

SP - Johan Santana - $12MM
SP - Carlos Silva - $4MM
SP - Ramon Ortiz - $3.1MM
SP - Sidney Ponson - $1MM + incentives
SP - Boof Bonser - $0.38MM

RP - Joe Nathan - $5.25MM
RP - Juan Rincon - $2MM
RP - Dennys Reyes - $1MM
RP - Jesse Crain - $0.5MM
RP - Pat Neshek - $0.38MM
RP - Matt Guerrier - $0.38MM
RP - J.D. Durbin - $0.38MM

They have about $69MM worth of players on this projected 25-man roster, up about $5MM from last year's Opening Day payroll.

I think the offense will probably be about average, with a chance to be a touch better if Kubel comes through.  I don't have big concerns about Mauer and Morneau dropping off.  They're not getting adequate production at power positions like 3B, LF, or DH though.

If you're going to beat the Tigers, Indians, and White Sox with an average offense, you'll need above average starting pitching and defense.  As presently constructed, the Twins don't have this.  Teams like the Indians and White Sox will knock the non-Santana starters around.  My off-the-cuff review says the defense is decent but not spectacular.

The ridiculous part is that the Twins are again going with veteran crap instead of their kids, and it will cost them wins again.  Said Aaron Gleeman:

"It's possible that the rotation at Triple-A Rochester will include Garza, Baker, Perkins, and Slowey, which has a good chance of being a better foursome that the non-Santana starters the Twins leave spring training with."

I don't get this. The games in April and May count, right?

The bullpen can at least make up for the rotation's misgivings.  It looks to be quite strong again.  I went with Guerrier and Durbin for the last two spots at the advice of Seth Stohs.  Seth mentions that Durbin is out of options, increasing the chances the Twins carry him.  He also notes that the team could go with 11 pitchers.

If Kubel breaks out, the rotation turns over quickly, and the Twins trade for Adam Dunn at the deadline, the could win the division.  More likely to me is that they're out of struggling to stay in contention in July and are faced with trading Torii Hunter.

Comments

[Deviation]

Carlos Silva's sinkerball still hasn't shown up after going MIA after the 2005 season.

Matt Garza is a super-prospect who will likely state a case in ST that is too strong for management to ignore. The kid has an amazing fastball that still comes out at 94-95 mph when his arm is dead. He also has some wicked breaking pitches that we'll see a lot more of than at the end of last season when he was tired and they all came in flat. I know in one of his complete game 2-hit victories at AAA, the manager let him throw 127 pitches. He still hit 95mph on the radar gun at the end of the game but the manager got chews out for letting him pitch that much.

What's this about defensive weaknesses on the left side of the infield? Jason Bartlett is a plus defender with a ton of range, a pretty good glove and a strong arm to boot. Nick Punto might not add much besides an empty .290 from the offensive end but he'll at least provide very good and sometimes spectacular play at 3B.

If Kubel's knees are finally healthy, I expect him to hit north of .300 with plenty of power to boot. You don't hit .377 at AA, .343 at AAA and .300 at the majors in the same year without having some serious talent. Not to mention the 44 doubles, 24 homers and 107 RBI.

I think an argument can be easily made that the Twins have the best bullpen in all of baseball.

[JerseyMetFan]

Another nice post. Mets next?

[SethSpeaksDotNet]

I think if Durbin is healthy and performs at all in the spring, he will stay on the roster. The bullpen is definitely baseball's best, and I completely agree with Gleeman's comment that the AAA rotation of Baker (who has nothing to prove there), Garza, Slowey and Perkins will be better and jsut as big league ready as the likes of Silva, Bonser, Ortiz and Ponson... but I agree taht those guys will start the season in the rotation.
Agree with the comment about the defense on the left side of the Twins infield. Punto proved to be above average at 3B, and Bartlett has a lot of range. I also think Bartlett will hit, with a lot of doubles.

Kubel is a key. If he can walk, he can hit over .300 with power. A mix of Mauer and Morneau really.

Great work!

[RotoAuthority]

The comment on Punto and Bartlett was just a quick thought after checking how they placed in the Fielding Bible awards this year. Since you guys see those two play quite a bit I will definitely defer to you there.

[RotoAuthority]

Took that comment out because I dont know what I'm talking about.

[Guitar Hero]

Reminds me of the Jays somewhat, what with good front end rotation and crap in the back. Except the Jays cost 25 million more, have a better lineup, and an impossible division.

[quintjs]

The name Sidney Ponson is about all you need to know about holding the young kids back.

You look at the rotations around baseball that are a lot better than the Twins, AL alone has plenty.

[Rayman]

That starting rotation makes me cringe.

[beeniez]

I think this might be Ponson's last chance. Most of those starters won't be on the 25 man roster come July.