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First Step Toward Pavano Trade

As George King writes, Carl Pavano had the chance today to show all the pitching-starved teams in baseball that he's finally healthy.  If the Yanks will swallow $15MM or so of Pavano's $23MM over the next two seasons, they can clear a spot for Phil Hughes and pick up a prospect.

Pavano didn't embarrass himself or get injured facing the tough Phillies lineup this afternoon.  He faced off with Cole Hamels, allowing one run in two innings of work.  The Cardinals and Rockies have shown interest in the past, though the Rockies don't need him with their current depth.

Tim's take: Chance of Pavano staying healthy and getting traded by July - 40%.

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I don't quite know what to think of the Cardinals getting Pavano. He seems like a typical candidate for their staff (experienced, coming off an injury, doesn't look like much of a power pitcher based off his K/9 total). Duncan and La Russa love the veteran on the rebound, and the Cards stellar D compensates for pitchers that don't strike out too many batters. I've always been big on BB/K ratio, and over his career, it looks pretty good.

I think it'd be a huge risk for the Cardinals to make a move for him now, but I could see it making sense in a few months into the season. Granted, I'd want to see how effective he is in NY, how Kip Wells, Reyes, Wainwright and possibly Brad Thompsan pans out in the rotation, and how effective Mulder can be mid summer before this trade could be made. As long as we don't lose one of those young pitchers, Rasmus or Chris Duncan, for $4/yr I could definately get behind Pavano in St. Louis around the all star break.

If the Yankees are swallowing that much money, I'd think it would have to be a pretty good prospect. Risky or not, he's shown he can at least throw the ball without his arm falling off, and $4M/year is a bargain price.

Compare him to some of the free agents that signed this season.

Please trade Pavano. He could come back and be good for the Yankees. And its not like the Yankees get much worse, they just get to use Hughes.

they wouldnt use hughes at the start of the season... they'd go with rasner or whatever, hughes is on a IP max.

Everyone thinks Hughes is ready and the next Wang. Best be careful and remember he is only a prospect and lots of things can happen between now and 10 wins in the majors.

Next Wang, pfff...he is going to run circles around Wang.

Hughes doesnt have to rely on luck for his pitches to miss hitter's bats like wang does

or, to try something completely different- Pavano + a lot of money + Melky Cabrera + Tabata + something not named Hughes for Dontrelle Willis.

If Pavano returns to form in Florida, then the Marlins don't lose much in the drop off from Willis, they solve center field with a decent player, Tabata is a nice little prospect, and the Yankees make the money work... Florida may actually get to be a better team with that trade for this season and beyond.
Although if I am Florida I'd probably hold out a while for Hughes before pulling the trigger.

lmao that is a stupid trade, melky and tebata alone is more than enough for willis, that is asking way to much for a pitcher of willis's calibur

If Pavano has a good spring there is NO WAY the Yankees are going to trade him and eat the salary. The Yankees are smarter businessmen now. We could have had Lilly for less and passed. 10 million for a starting pitcher is chump change in this market. It's less than Gil Meche money and the mere thought of the Yankees eating upwards of 15 million on a guy they need (because let's face it, the starting 5 isn't scaring anyone after Pettite, Wang) is ludicrous. I know Pavano has been a waste, but if he can just settle in and be a #4 on this staff and beat the Wakefields, the Ohka's, the Maroth's of the world in the AL (which is who he'll be facing most time), 10 million is a bargain. There's not an organization out there that is going to give up a top prospect for Pavano, so what could possibly be the point of trading him and millions of dollars for a guy or guys not at the top of the prospect list. We couldn't even get Arizona's top prospect for the Unit with cash added into the deal....you think we're gonna get anything better for Pavano? He's worth more to the Yankees on the Yankees in my opinion. This whole idea that the Yankees always have to add cash to their trades coming to end now that Cashman has all the control. If they did add cash, I guarantee you it'd be no more than a couple of million per season.

or, to try something completely different- Pavano + a lot of money + Melky Cabrera + Tabata + something not named Hughes for Dontrelle Willis.

If Pavano returns to form in Florida, then the Marlins don't lose much in the drop off from Willis, they solve center field with a decent player, Tabata is a nice little prospect, and the Yankees make the money work... Florida may actually get to be a better team with that trade for this season and beyond.
Although if I am Florida I'd probably hold out a while for Hughes before pulling the trigger.


Yankee fans honestly just amaze me sometimes.

lmao that is a stupid trade, melky and tebata alone is more than enough for willis, that is asking way to much for a pitcher of willis's calibur


You think Melky+Tabata is MORE than enough for Dtrain. Wow.

I don't see DTrain going anywhere soon. The DBacks were hot in the hunt for him last year and had the right prospects to get something done but nothing moved past distant rumors. Florida has the talent to really make a run this year and would be stupid to trade Dtrain unless Bavasi calls, then like any smart GM you have to listen (and snicker).

GoBosSox- not at all a Yankee fan, in fact can't stand them. So, how about a more complete statement, like why that doesn't work (although since I included a "plus something" at the end, I don't really know how you can say anything, I could be talking about Cano for all you know.

The chances of Pavano staying healthy -40% or dash 40 percent?

Tabata is 18 years old, he might turn great he might fizzle into another of the long list of 18 years old who ended up as crap. Melky Cabrera sucks so bad. If he was on any other team no one would give the slightest crap about him at all. People give me crap talking up David Murphy, and he's a better baseball player than Melky Cabrera. Melky isnt even a 4th outfielder, he is a guy with the possibility of being a fourth outfielder, who had one good year whos numbers were inflated by the team he was on and the talent surrounding him.

Pavano has the chance to be a good pitcher, I want the Yankees to get rid of him now, cause I think their rotation is crap and if he actually doesnt spend the year on the DL with various car crash, or I hurt my ass injuries the guy has the ability to be a good AL East pitcher. Yankees fans have rightly or wrongly given up on him already, please remember the Red Sox and Yankees and everyone else was fighting for him when he was FA he has the ability. But putting him with Tabata, and Melky Cabrera and hoping for a return of Dontrelle Willis???? Your retarded. Willis is the face of a franchise, an amazing human being, a marketing force, and a damn good pitcher. He's entering the prime of his career after already posting a 22 win season. Colorado, or Arizona, or LA Dodgers want to mortgage the farm for him thats a doable trade. The Yankees offering crap for him???? Shut up.

GoBosSox- not at all a Yankee fan, in fact can't stand them. So, how about a more complete statement, like why that doesn't work (although since I included a "plus something" at the end, I don't really know how you can say anything, I could be talking about Cano for all you know.


Please. You were clearly not talking about a player of Cano's caliber, especially one so young and cheap. Your "+something else" probably would have been an expiring contract or prospect.

But aside from the specifics of the trade I was laughing because trading dtrain for pavano+prospects does not make the marlins a better team. In the future? Possibly. Certainly not anytime soon.

GoBoSox, don't generalize fans, it's really annoying to see that crap on here. Someone made a trade proposal you don't like and you think their entire fan base reflects that person? In that case, all of Red Sox Nation should jump off a cliff, as well as every other team's fans. Right? Future posts by anyone that include bickering will just be edited or deleted by Tim or the site's new moderator. So let's play nice.

Hey ArodSucksAtLife just stop posting, you look like someone who knows nothing about baseball. Melky Cabrera could start on most MLB teams. He is not Bubba Crosby who shouldn't be in the majors period. Cabrera is patient at the plate and will walk from time to time. He can hit fast balls (Which is a must) and can hit breaking balls even better. Oh another thing, he hits great against the Red Sox. PS, David Murphy is below average and Melky is better. I wouldn't trade Jose Tabata or Melky Cabrera.

GoBoSox, don't generalize fans, it's really annoying to see that crap on here. Someone made a trade proposal you don't like and you think their entire fan base reflects that person? In that case, all of Red Sox Nation should jump off a cliff, as well as every other team's fans. Right? Future posts by anyone that include bickering will just be edited or deleted by Tim or the site's new moderator. So let's play nice.


I did not say anything rude or crude. No profanity. I made an assumption, one that turned out to be wrong but I did so without disrespecting anyone. To be honest, you are not tim. You are not the new moderator. I do not need you telling me how to post. If Tim has a problem with anything I said he can either delete it or mention it to me and I'll rectify the situation.

Hahaha. Cool, a thread about a yankees player. Obviously that means all the red sox fans run in and say every yankee is crap.

Ok, let me start with this one:

"Tabata is 18 years old, he might turn great he might fizzle into another of the long list of 18 years old who ended up as crap. Melky Cabrera sucks so bad. If he was on any other team no one would give the slightest crap about him at all. People give me crap talking up David Murphy, and he's a better baseball player than Melky Cabrera. Melky isnt even a 4th outfielder, he is a guy with the possibility of being a fourth outfielder, who had one good year whos numbers were inflated by the team he was on and the talent surrounding him."

Regarding Tabata; you make it seem like theres a 50-50 shot Tabata will ever make the big club, dont underestimate players because they're on a team you don't like. Tabata is a very highly touted prospect, his age will have little effect on whether he "fizzles out" or not.

Regarding Cabrera; Oh yes, a 22 year old thats called up to the big leagues after an extremely bad stint the previous year that hits .280 in 130 games while Walking as many times as he strikes out all while playing stellar defense. Yes, he sucks so bad. Thats not nearly enough for a 4th Outfielder. I guess a 4th outfielder should chip in 20 HR's and a .350 avg or something.

On to the real topic...The yankees won't trade Pavano until they see how Igawa does, from what I've read hes having some trouble with control and nerves. Although he had a nice outing in an intrasquad game. Just one of those wait and see things.

I understand there will be not too bright yankee fans because they have the largest fanbase, but really...You're making the rest of us look bad..
And the Red Sox fans arent helping themselves.

wow, please excuse my terrible grammar.

Pavano to braves for Yunel Escobar(SS) or Iker Franco(C) yankees pay 15 mil. of salary

BSox, this will be my last post in the thread. I am the moderator actually. Tim and I had discussed that he whole "you know nothing about baseball" rants are
getting old. When you verbally take a crap on one team's fan base just because you don't like the team, it leads to stupid flame wars. I'm sure Tim added a moderator in the first place because he didn't have the time to look at every post. I'd email you about this in private but I don't have your contact information.

I'm not picking a fight with you, just according to the survey a lot of people are tired of the bickering.

Same thing applies to Posada20, I missed that initially.

For what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus thinks that Melky alone is worth more than Willis over the next 3 seasons (and just slightly less over the next 2).

And I wholeheartedly agree that the "your an idiot and know nothing" has got to go.


Finally, I am not implying that Melky will end up with the power or career that most of these players have had, but (courtesy of the Replacement Level Yankees blog), here's the list of players who have put up an OPS+ of 100 or higher (this means they were league average or better in terms of OPS) over 400 PA at age 22 or younger:

Ken Griffey Jr. (1990)
John Olerud (1990)
Gary Sheffield (1990)
Travis Fryman (1991)
Juan Gonzalez (1991)
Ivan Rodriguez (1993)
Jason Kendall (1996)
Derek Jeter (1996)
Alex Rodriguez (1996)
Scott Rolen (1997)
Vlad Guerrero (1998)
Andrew Jones (1998)
Ben Grieve (1998)
Adrian Beltre (1999)
Carlos Beltran (1999)
Albert Pujols (2001)
Austin Kearns (2002)
Miguel Cabrera (2004)
Joe Mauer (2005)
Brian McCann (2006)
Prince Fielder (2006)
Ryan Zimmerman (2006)
Melky Cabrera (2006)


So saying he sucks, is, well, wrong. To say he's not even a 4th outfielder is such an absurd statement that reeks of ignorance and bias.

Interesting list bobo. The only real stinker on there is Grieve and I think the reason he didn't become a star player was lack of desire. Always felt he mentally quit on himself.

I love Melky. I think the Braves will regret not making the Melky/Gonzales swap. I think with 3 33-34yo OF, Melky's gonna end up starting a lot this season...not to mention that I don't the Mientkiewiecz's glove at 1b is going to keep him in the starting lineup all season. The best hitting team the yanks can field is with Giambi at 1b and Melky in the OF and one of the OF'ers getting a day off to DH. Not to mention the OF defense will be significantly improved with Melky out there.

Which begs to question; what's more valuable, defense in the OF or at 1b? I assume the Yanks are stating 1b is more valuable, but after seeing the impact plays Melky makes in the OF last season, I might lean towards OF.

Definitely OF, but probably not with Cano on the mound. I like the Mientkiewicz signing and I'm interested in seeing what he can do when pitchers come right after him (say what you want about protection but given the disparity between him and every other hitter in the lineup, I'd think if it ever exists, now's the time).

I'm totally torn. I think one of the following will happen:

A) He hits a lot of line drives and puts of numbers like last year, which will be just fine.

B) He stinks at the plate and by midseason he's only playing when Wang pitches.


I am disappointed that the Yankees have basically dismissed the possibility of Giambi ever playing first, because like you said, that doesn't allow our best lineup, but I think that talk might be temporary. Giambi continues to take fielding practice at first every day, and I could see him playing there again in a few months if things aren't working out.


As far as where he ranks, based on last years stats, he's around 50th in OPS among qualified OF, which is obviously very good. Add in the small expected power growth this year, his ability to play CF, and the overall quality of his defense, and you've got a player who not only is the best 4th OF I can think of, he's better than many teams' 3rd OF, and probably some 2nd OF as well.


Giambino could take fielding practice all day and night and still not play 1st base because he stinks. The yankees will never let that happen again, especially when they have Phillips and Eyechart now. They gave that one up, so forget it.

As far as Hughes goes, everybody thinks he is the cy young for this year, best be careful, last year was a lucky one for Wang, can't get lucky too many times in a row.

Pavano will be traded, the yanks will never get over the stuff he pulled, regardless of the truthfulness of it all. Hopefully, he can get them more prospys and maybe they can get a few wins from their rooks, but with Igawa not looking great, could be trouble in the Empire state.

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