Boras And Stark Battle Over Andruw

Interesting debate going on over at David O'Brien's AJC blog (which is a good read by the way).

ESPN's Jayson Stark wrote a book, called The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players In Baseball History.  One of the points was that Andruw Jones is overrated currently, because he has lost a step in center field and many folks have not noticed.  I think that's the gist of it but still have to read the book.  So then Scott Boras called up O'Brien, complaining about how Stark is just profiteering and stir up controversey with the assertion.  Boras also appeared on ESPN to defend his client.  (Incidentally, no contract talks have taken place between Boras and the Braves regarding Jones and O'Brien doesn't think Andruw will be offering any kind of discount).

Stark then read Boras's comments on the blog, and took offense.  His response can be read here.  I was all ready to give Stark the upper hand here until J.C. Bradbury stepped in with his analysis of Stark's rebuttal.  Now I'm back on Boras's side.

Comments

[was385]

Obviously Andruw has lost a step defensively but Stark makes it seem like he is one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball, which completely drops the credibility of his argument to me. If you watch Andruw, he still has the best instincts and quickest first step of any outfielder in baseball, and maybe over the course of the year takes 10-15 bad paths to the ball (only maybe five of those drop in for hits because he took a bad path). He has enough speed and while a lot of outfielders have to slow down to track the ball, Andruw runs full speed on a straight line to every ball. He is still one of the top two.

Compare that to Aaron Rowand, who the sabermetric stats call for as being one of the best defensive centerfielders in baseball. I have seen him play in 7 games so far this season and in those 7 games I have seen him misplay 9 balls that fell for hits. I don't trust defensive stats one bit, you have to watch to actually judge.

[ryan c]

as we all can see, andruw has slimmed down this year, and he looks to be putting up those amazing numbers that he produced earlier in his career. right now, he is on pace for 478 putouts (the most since his record breaking year in '99). also, he is leading the majors by 11 in putouts. aaron rowand is 10th.

[gtliles]

JC Bradbury has some words on this as well, at sabernomics.com.

[was385]

Andruw lost 10 or 15 pounds over the off-season.

[Aduncaroo]

put outs is like wins for a pitcher....complete bs.

Also...Jones I would worry about signing Jones to a long term deal, meaning 5 or more years, because obviously the only reason he slimmed down was because it is a contract year.

He batting average is worse than Jaque Jones!!! I think his defense getting worse (which it will) is the least of his concerns right now.

[ryan c]

that might be the dumbest statement i have ever seen. putouts for a 1st baseman might be a useless stat, but not for a center fielder. aduncaroo, why dont you look at andruw's track record before you go spatting off at the mouth. andruw is a very hot/cold player with extreme ups and down. by the end of this year, he will have 30-40 hr's, 100-110 rbi's, and about a .360 obp. count it! do you honestly think that a centerfielder with 480 putouts in a year is bs? that's just one word: denial.

[Yars]

I'm pretty sure if Andruw were hitting .280 with 15 HR & 45 RBI right now, this wouldn't even be an issue. Boras is pissed because he client is having an awful season, & is being exposed for what he is, an over-rated OF. Unfortunately, there will be some team stupid enough to throw a $18-$19 million per season package in Andruw's way after the season, and it ain't going to be Atlanta. Heck, if Atlanta falls out of the NL East/Wildcard race by mid-July, I won't be surprised if they try to trade him. Atleast they'll get something in return. Braves fans need to quit with this, 'the season is still early' rhetoric. Remember last season? Your team just got swept by the Twins, you have no starting pitcher who is capable of winning at the major league level after Smoltz & Hudson, a too often injured 3B, a catcher whose '06 season was a fluke, no 1B, a RF that will swing at everything, and a closer who shouldn't be a closer. Yet, you are only 2.5 games behind the Mets. Amazing. The only positives so far are Kelly Johnson, Smoltz, Hudson, Renteria, and your LF platoon with Diaz/Harris. If the Braves think they have any chance of making the postseason, Schuerholz needs to trade for a quality starting pitcher ASAP. Finding a decent 1B who doesn't swing for the fences every at bat wouldn't hurt either.

[was385]

For the second straight game Salty is starting at first, we have a very capable third base backup in Yunel Escobar, Soriano has been the most dominant reliever in the NL if not baseball, and what about Chuck James? Sorry if I am not too worried with three good starters, a good lineup (francoeur is hitting .281 with a .330 OBP this season), and one of the top bullpens in the NL. On top of that JS has Matt Harrison and Oscar Villareal he could turn to and a good farm system to go out and get a starter.

[ryan c]

from what i understand, the entry was about andruw jonesas an individual player, not the braves whole team, so good job on surpassing any rational thought and just trying to make an argument with a braves fan. that's so childish and is one of the reasons people can't have a decent conversation on this blog. good job yars. when you want to discuss something w/o actually dodging the point, let me know.

[quintjs]

I see Stark's point that Jones isn't the lock GG CF he once was, and I think that is reasonably fair.

I don't understand why people are complaining about Zone Rating here, maybe Tim, you can explain this one.
Ok its flawed, but it would have to have been flawed 6-7years ago, so you can still compare right? and his zone rating his slipped - am i missing something?

[DentalPlan]

Who the hell believes a word Boras says? Remember when Johnny Damon was a free agent, he prepared like a 50 page dissertation "proving" that that in the past 30 years, the only leadoff man to be as good as Rickey Henderson was Johnny Damon?

Of course, everyone reading this probably knows that idea didn't come out of nowhere, there's a grain of statistical truth. I bet it's something like "In the past 30 years, only Henderson and Damon have had 8 straight years or more of 9+ HR, 50+ walks, 30+ doubles, and 16+ steals."

Now, does that make Damon as good as Rickey Henderson? No way. That kind of analysis doesn't tell you anything about Damon's future productivity either. So, while what Boras says is often crap, it starts out with truth that gets twisted way out of proportion.