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Goldman On A-Rod

Steven Goldman has a well-reasoned column in the New York Sun today discussing why it's important for the Yankees to trade Alex Rodriguez.  Here's a hint: they need to restock on position players.  It's not about the tabloid stuff or the infamous "hah!"  Personally I like the tactic but wouldn't use "hah."  When I played sandlot ball we used to shout "Confusion!  Confusion!" over and over when a couple of guys would get under a pop-up.  It worked once in a while. 

Basically A-Rod is still a marketable superstar, and the Yankees are going to have plenty of holes in the near future.  It'd be best not to patch them up with more $15MM guys.  James Loney plus Matt Kemp from the Dodgers would be perfect, if Ned Colletti would do it.  Rodriguez would have to waive his no-trade and provide a window for an extension, I imagine.

Such a strategy, however, runs counter to the Roger Clemens signing.  Once Clemens hits the Majors the team will be in full win-now mode, so it's important to decide whether to trade Rodriguez very soon.

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Doesn't his no-trade clause carry over to NY?

Would he WANT to be traded?

He said he would have to waive it. No, I don't think he would WANT to be traded...but then again, think about it.

If they trade him, it doesn't seem like he is the one bailing on them anymore. He has an excuse to get out of New York. Also, the Dodgers are in 1st place....the Yankees are not. He probably actually has a much better chance of winning with them than the Yanks. (Sorry Yanks fans) The Dodgers have a great pitching staff and if they add Arod...that lineup become much more deadly. I think they would definitely win the west if this happens...and half their prospects are blocked anyway, so I think they would make this trade, as long as they could sign him to an extension.

It does seem fairly logical, and Colletti is more likely to trade some prospects than Stoneman.

Torre made some comments against his use of "HAH" and I know they were miscontstrued somewhat...but seriously, it seems like his time in New York is running out. That and Cashman doesn't want to give him an extension, even though he has him at a discounted rate so it'd be in his best interest to give him one or else lose him.

Which is what will probably yhappen. He's not gonna waive his no trade clause. He will probably opt out and I can see the Dodgers as being a perfect fit. Yankees won't be able to trade him for guys like Sheff and Randy and in typical dramatic Arod fasion he will find a way to make it all the more dramatic (though I doubt he goes to the Red Sox...though knowing him...). I would be surprised if he decided to stay in NY despite all the BS he has said about wanting to win there.

That would be a lot of salary for the Dodgers to take on. Not saying they couldn't afford it, but they wouldn't be too quick to pull the trigger either. The LaRoche and Loney for Arod swap is probably the most ideal; Loney is already blocked by Nomar, and LaRoche would be blocked by Arod. I don't know if they would be willing to give up Kemp as well, although obviously the Yankees could use him to replace Abreu if the Dodgers were to offer him up. He is more suited for a corner outfield spot though anyway, given his size, and if the Yankees don't like the prospects of Damon in center, they need a true center fielder, not another corner man.

I do think the Dodgers would be an ideal candidate - they need a power bat desperately, they have lots of young talent that is currently blocked, and they are a large enough market that they can deal with the increased payroll (plus Texas would still be paying some if they organized an extension). Additionally, by trading him to the NL, the Yankees wouldn't have to worry about facing Arod anytime in the future. However, the main issue is if Arod would want to leave. This is the kind of trade that could help both teams right now, but it is possible Arod simply wouldn't want to get up and move all the way out west. One would think that if he got an extension he would be alright with it, especially considering he could really tee off on NL pitching. But who knows with Arod.

As a Yankees fan, I would definitely be for this. I have nothing against A-Rod at all. Contrary to many Yankees fans, I would love to see him back for the NYY next season. However, that being said, I would never give him the years that I expect Scott Boras to ask for. If Boras only required five or six years to lock A-Rod up, I would do it in a heartbeat. But when we're talking seven or eight years, that contract has disaster written all over it. Thus, I think it might be a better move to get what you can for him now.

That being said, I highly doubt it will happen. If the Yankees deal A-Rod, they are throwing in the towel for the season and The Boss will not be very happy about it.

This guy loses credibility the moment he mentions Kershaw in a trade. Is he even eligible to be traded yet? And even if he was, he won't go anywhere. Furthermore, the Yanks can't just go and pick which of the Dodgers top prospects they want for half a year of A-Rod. I think people are forgetting Colleti has no desire to do business with Boras and will not submit to an outrageous contract w/ ARod.

You raise a good point on the Colletti/Boras clash. In fact that is a very strong reason alone preventing this.

I doubt ARod signs an extension with any team he gets traded to though.

Why would he do so when he could make more money on the open market allowing people to outbid each other for him?

I don't see how people fail to realize that he will make more money by NOT voiding his contract. I've said it over and over again, and nobody argues against it, yet they constantly talk about how he'll do better voiding his contract. And to my knowledge, no writer has explained why it's in ARod's best interests to NOT void the contract - which boggles my mind.

Simply: because of the payments Texas is making, any team (the Yankees included) which takes on the existing contract can offer LESS than if he was a free agent, and ARod will still make MORE. It's such a no-brainer for both sides.

Boras is not stupid - he's keeping this to himself so he can use the opt-out clause as a threat to teams so he can pressure them into giving ARod a huge extension (but one that will result in his new team paying less than market value).

I don't think that Kemp+Loney gets it done...nor do I think that Kershaw is totally out of the question.

This IS at the worst one of the 5-10 greatest players ever, having one of his best seasons and Ned Coletti is an idiot has he has proven many, many, many times in his short stint as GM.

I say if Coletti so much as breathes Kershaw's name, the Yanks are all over that, and otherwise I think it would have to Laroche+Kemp or some variation.

I don't think that Kemp+Loney gets it done...nor do I think that Kershaw is totally out of the question.

This IS at the worst one of the 5-10 greatest players ever, having one of his best seasons and Ned Coletti is an idiot has he has proven many, many, many times in his short stint as GM.

I say if Coletti so much as breathes Kershaw's name, the Yanks are all over that, and otherwise I think it would have to Laroche+Kemp or some variation.

If a trade happened, it would have to include both Loney and LaRoche. The Yankees would need both a first and third baseman, and this would cover both needs. Kemp and Kershaw could be thrown in maybe, but the other two would absolutely be included.

"Kemp and Kershaw could be thrown in"

So the dodgers should offer Loney, Laroche and possibly throw in kershaw and kemp?

Cut your crack intake by at least half man, you're losing your mind.

Sorry, no. You don't give three great prospects for a guy who makes as much as A-Rod does. Do you guys know nothing about trades? Those kinds of trades only happen for guys making low salary, they sure as hell don't happen for guys who could walk away for nothing at the end of the year.

Get real here. Kershaw, Kemp, and Loney would buy Miguel Cabrera. There's no reason at all to bother with A-Rod.

Okay well obviously I meant Kershaw OR Kemp, and Kemp is much more probable. But you have to admit that the Yankees will ask for LaRoche and Loney first and foremost, as they would fill immediate needs. Contrary to my terminology, Kemp wouldn't exactly be a "throw in", it just depends on how desperate the Dodgers are for a power bat. I don't think the Yankees would give up Arod just for Loney and LaRoche - I think a third player would have to be thrown in.

In today's game, teams don't give up 3 top prospects for ANY player, rental or not.

Look at Soriano last year...the Nats couldn't even get ONE top prospect for him. The best the could've got was like Jason Kubel and Scott Baker...at which point the 2 draft picks are probably more valuable.

Possibly, but LaRoche would obviously have no place on the team anymore anyway if they got Arod, and Loney as of now is blocked anyway. So it would be a lot, but considering these guys are major league ready now, but unable to help the Dodgers, they might be slightly more willing to let them go. Also, we're talking about arguably the greatest player in the game today (definitely top two), and one of the greatest of all time. Trading three prospects, two of which are of no use to your team, wouldn't be completely outlandish, especially when Arod fills multiple needs for the Dodgers (third baseman and power bat). I'm not saying it will happen, but if you're the Yankees, it's tough to give up Arod for just two prospects, no matter how much upside they may have.

It doesn't matter if A-Rod is one of the greatest players ever, because he isn't any more. As a shortstop, yeah, but he doesn't play shortstop any more, so what is he? An offensive-minded 3b, of which there are many.

Even if they are blocked, the Dodgers aren't giving them away, and they aren't trading 3 prospects for a guy who could walk.

Well this whole thing was predicated under the assumption that they sign him to an extension before the trade becomes official, just as the Tigers and Diamondbacks did with Sheffield and Johnson last offseason.

Thinking about it from the Yanks perspective, would they really just insert Loney & LaRoche into their lineup, even if they were completey out of contention? I don't think so. They'll both be good be but they're totally unproven. I don't think Colletti will deal w/ Boras and the Dodgers are not dealing for him without an extension. This scenario is just too far fetched.

how about LaRoche, Betemit and Broxton for A-Rod? Assuming that an extension can be worked, of course.

Yanks can look at that as a move for this year as well as for the future, given how bad their bullpen has been.

2 of either Kemp/ Loney/ LaRoche/ Kershaw....and then Preston Mattingly

Bobo -

Your logic is quite flawed unless I am misunderstanding you.

From A-Rod's point of view, if he opts out he is going to be in for a bigger pay day. MAKING MORE MONEY.

From a teams point of view, they would want to keep him in his current contract because of the payments. Once he opts out, Texas's money is gone.

So it's quite simple. A-Rod makes more if he gets out, the team saves more if he stays in.

By the way, if I was the Yankees I'd want Broxton in the deal. But I'm sure the dodgers don't want to give up one of the brightest closers of the future.

To Bobo:

Arod would want to opt out of his contract in order to benefit himself in the long-run.

Sure, he wouldn't be able to match the per season money if he signs a new deal, but it would be far more beneficial for him to sign a long-term deal now at the age of 31 than for him to wait until his current deal expires and try to work out a deal at the age of 34.

There's no doubt in my mind that ARod would be able to eclipse the deal Alfonso Soriano acquired this offseason (also in his age 31 season) and having an 8 year contract would also allow ARod to possibly sign another deal when that contract ends at his age 39 season.

If he waits until 2010 to broker a new deal, then he's risking that:

a)he won't get injured between now and then.
b)that he's still productive
c)that he's still physically able to effectively man 3B or SS
d)that the market hasn't stabilized itself and limited the contract that he would be worth.

A lot can happen in three years and most agents and players would probably want the long-term security rather than gamble on the short.

As a Dodger fan, I knew this rumor would come around sooner or later. And I love the idea of ARod coming to Los Angeles. This is a star driven town, and he would fit in perfectly with names like Kobe Bryant and David Beckham. With Jeff Kent in the last year of his deal, and with Rafael Furcal having one more left on his deal, the Dodgers will have money to spend and they can give Alex his shortstop position back, with Furcal moving to second base. The Dodgers have Wilson Betemit and Tony Abreu at third. I think any combo of LaRoche and Kemp or Loney is fine as long as Scott Boras could give the Dodgers a chance to extend the contract. Dodgers fans are desperate for some power as Nomar/Kent/Luis Gonzalez have a combined 13 home runs nine weeks into the season. Absolutely disgraceful for no. 3,4 & 5 hitters!

You guys are out of your minds. Boras is A-Rod's agent. You think A-Rod will sign an extension for a team he's just traded to when the market the last two years has been crazy? No way. It won't happen. Of all Boras's clients, how many have signed extensions and not tested the market? Like one, Andruw Jones, which was about 6 years ago, and Andruw had to fight to get that. And people think A-Rod, the man for whom money is a matter of deep pride, will sign a contract without knowing he squeezed every last penny out of it he could?

Keep dreaming.

I'm not saying he'll stay with his contract and sign a FA deal in 2010. I'm saying he'll tell the new team that they have to sign him to an extension or else he will opt-out.

An example:

What would ARod get as a FA in 2008? I would say $150M over 6 years, though that's debatable of course.

If a team traded for him now, then signed him to a 3 year extension for, say, $84M, then they would be paying $132M over 6 years, and Texas would be paying $33M. ARod gets $165M over 6 years (more than he'd make as a FA), and the team only pays $132M (less than they'd pay if he were a FA).

The same logic applies regardless of what you think ARod's market value is.

What about $200M over 8 years, which is of cousre way too much? Sign him to a 5 year, $135M extension. ARod now makes $216M over 8 years, and his new team pays $183M.

See how this works? The new team pays LESS than they would pay ARod as a FA, and ARod makes MORE than he would make as a FA.

DentalPlan, this is unlike other trades/extensions because they did not have a built in $33M gift from Texas for keeping the current contract going.

greenbaydude - Yeah, I think you were misunderstanding. If it wasn't clear from my above post, I didn't mean that ARod should stay with his current contract - of course the new team would want that, but Boras/ARod won't agree. But because of Texas' $33M, ARod can get an extension which is well above market value, and the acquiring team will still be paying under market value.

This is really a unique situation. But again, still I'm blown away that this (which seems obvious to me at least) is not discussed in the media.

Isn't Arod making $27 M a year from 08-10?

Why is everyone counting out the supreme ability of the Yankees to sign A-Rod to an extension? That way he is still guaranteed the $27 million he has left on his contract, plus he probably gets more from the Yankees than he does other teams, simply because the Yankees are only paying him about $16 million per year from 2008-2010 anyway. They definitely have roster flexibility past that. Plus, they're the Yankees.

But yeah, I mean, getting him to waive his no-trade clause in the middle of a season where the Yankees are far from out of it, and trading him to the Dodgers is a much larger possibility.

Because Cashman already said that he's not going to negotiate an extension...

He said that he wouldn't before the season. Right in line with not signing Posada or Rivera to an extension either. He has not said anything about A-Rod after the season.

The yankees are NOT far from out of it....and there is a good chance that by the all star break, they are going to be completely out of it

I have shocking news for the plethora of Yankee hating folks here...

The Yanks are not out of it!

You all assume the Red Sox great start will continue and the Yankees horrible start will continue.

Guess what?

The Yankees are a spectacular team that has had horrible luck. They're starting to get healthy now. Pitching and hitting are in sync for the first time this year. The AL East is far from decided.

The Red Sox have had a great start, but have had smooth sailing. Do you honestly expect them to not suffer serious injuries or hit slumps of their own for the rest of the season???

Oh, and one more thing:

Arod is staying in New York. You all assume he'll leave for more money or because he was booed last year.

He's not been booed this year, he's been clutch this year and Cashman will not let the best right handed power hitter in the league just walk off.

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