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« Failed Trades | Main | Waiver Trade Candidate: Mike Piazza »
Does Johan Santana Want Out?
Johan Santana's comments yesterday caused a stir. He was upset that the Twins made no acquisitions, and doesn't seem to think management is trying to win. It certainly sounds like he wants out or expects to leave.
Does that mean it's time to start up the rumor mill for all of the large-market teams looking for pitching this winter? I don't think so. It sounds like Santana would waive his no-trade clause, but would the Twins really trade him? Trading the best pitcher in baseball is a huge concession no matter what the return, and I can't see the Twins giving up on 2008.
More likely they'll make their usual patchwork acquisitions this winter. Maybe make a lowball contract offer to Santana before the season starts, and then watch him leave for the biggest payday a pitcher has ever seen.
Of course, it's still fun to speculate. It would be cool to see a stacked team like the Devil Rays or Diamondbacks to make a run at him this winter instead of the usual Yankees, Red Sox, etc.
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$30 mil a year ballplayer right there.
Posted by: Teetz | August 01, 2007 at 03:37 PM
now thats a player i would give up some prospects for.
Posted by: joeh | August 01, 2007 at 03:41 PM
You know for a true name prospect like Phil Hughes or Yovani Gallardo, where you get 5 years of the guy, that seems worth it. One of those guys could provide 80% of Santana for the '08 season.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | August 01, 2007 at 03:43 PM
Yes...the New York Mets do...
http://www.americanlegends.blogspot.com/
Posted by: J. Mark English | August 01, 2007 at 03:43 PM
Actually, I think the Twins will have one of the best pitching staffs in the majors in '08 with Liriano coming back. They need to hang on to Santana and go big in '08.
Posted by: oxdmoneyxo | August 01, 2007 at 03:45 PM
I can;t really see him leaving the Twins, but I'd kill to have him on the Redsox..
Posted by: Bosox4416 | August 01, 2007 at 03:46 PM
This team was in a bad situation because they are currently down a huge difference maker (Liriano) and although they are only 6Gs out ~ they have 4 strong teams standing in their way for a spot (Det, Cle, Sea/Ana & NYY) with only the Tribe making a deal to improve at all. So its not like they got that much farther away really even if they did ship off a purely-OBP guy like Castillo (.304/.356/.352) who they can just as easily resign this offseason.
It just didn’t really make sense to upgrade that much in their current situation and it probably just depends on their activity over the offseason as to the “happiness” of the team. I think the team just needs to be talked to a little bit about what the team feels is their best options and that a push for 07 wasn’t one of them… veryones gut reaction would be “wow, that sucked for us” ~ but this is a cusp-team and they would have to realize that if they thought bigger-picture…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | August 01, 2007 at 03:51 PM
TJ surgery usually takes 2 years before the pitcher is back to full strength. Can Liriano be a big difference maker his first year back?
Posted by: Teetz | August 01, 2007 at 03:54 PM
The Red Sox could very well have a package that would entice the twins more than anyone else.. Clay Bucholz (just as good as Philip Hughes, just hasnt got the chance to prove it yet), Jacoby Ellsbury, filling in the void left by tori hunter, two of Justin Masterson/Jon Lester/Michael Bowden, as well as perhaps Lars Anderson, a young player with great power pontential that could play 1b or DH...
Posted by: theMATTador | August 01, 2007 at 04:00 PM
I really think the media is making this out to be more than it is. Santana's just frustrated RIGHT after the Castillo trade (even though it was fine and Casilla will be just as good). That should be expected.
The Twins have more than enough time and money (with the new ballpark coming) to ease this and lock him up longterm. I expect them to lock up Torii Hunter this winter (this week would point to that) and Liriano should be back to full strength in 2008 since he'll be pitching winter ball this year to refine his stuff post-surgery. Those should go a long way towards appeasing Santana.
And really, why would the Twins give up on 2008 no matter what when they should possibly even be the FAVORITES next year with a Santana/Garza/Liriano front 3 in the rotation? It just doesn't make sense.
Bottomline; this is just more BS from big market teams thinking they can get what they want. Santana's not going anywhere, despite this little frustration.
Posted by: djskilbr | August 01, 2007 at 04:03 PM
Ah, yes. Theo now reminds me of Danny Ainge. Build up all these quality young arms/players and deal them for one major piece that could throw them to the top. I just don't think I'd do it, unless it was more of a Bucholz/Ellsbury/one more young arm thing. Mortaging the future for one arm, however it is the best arm in the game, is crazy. Theo has kept them around for a reason, so I tend to believe in him more then older regimes.
Posted by: ErroRod1985 | August 01, 2007 at 04:08 PM
If Santana is available via FA it is one thing. I wouldn't like to see the Sox destroy the farm to get this guy, and then have to pay tons of money to keep him.
Posted by: GoBoSox420 | August 01, 2007 at 04:08 PM
Yeah I haven't thought much about the Liriano factor - personally I think he will be very effective overall next year.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | August 01, 2007 at 04:32 PM
Sox or Yankees really both have arms that could trade for him next year. (buck, masterson,bowden or Chamberlin, Kennedy, Hughes) I think both teams would also consider the move of shipping a kings ransom if they were able to lock him up. I mean think of the redsox; Beckett, Dice, Santana....
Posted by: jctrevor | August 01, 2007 at 04:42 PM
No team should destroy their farm system for 1 season of Santana. Maybe give up 1 or 2 top prospects for him if you really want to make a run that season, but anything beyond Bucholz and Ellsbury would be pushing it, IMO. Certainly could throw in some high-upside prospects that are still very young, but you just can't give up 3+ top prospects that are in AA or above. Doesn't make sense.
Posted by: mymrbig | August 01, 2007 at 04:42 PM
Is it feasible for someone to pay a pitcher 70 million a year and make him start every game? If so the Reds better make a play for him!.
Posted by: Muggerd | August 01, 2007 at 04:52 PM
i have to agree with mymrbig there. if buchholz is as good as advertised then that's a pretty good replacement for santana. throw on ellsbury and maybe hansen/delcarmen and that's a pretty good haul for the twins
Posted by: boomshwa12 | August 01, 2007 at 04:58 PM
I expect that we will see Johan in Yankee Pinstripes by Xmas. I can see it being Johan for Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and either Melky or Brett Gardner
That gives the Twins 2 of the best prospects out there. And a CF to replace Hunter
Posted by: ozziethesaint | August 01, 2007 at 05:17 PM
A combined 12 years of Hughes/Joba for one season of Santana? Plus other stuff too? Yanks would get killed on that deal.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | August 01, 2007 at 05:22 PM
This will never happen though. Its like the Red Sox trying to trade Manny Ramirez every year. It's way to difficult to do without the other team giving up an entire army. Even if the twins got these prospects, they arent in a position to just throw away '08. They would want/need major league ready players, and I don't see any team giving up the players the Twins would demand.
Not to mention this is no big deal. Santana will be fine next year, they'll resign him and everything will be fine.
Oh and Torii Hunter, I don't think he even wants to stay in Minnesota unless they pay him 18-22 mil a year for 6-8 years. And I really doubt they'd fork over that much cash. Idk if anyone saw his interviews on ESPN earlier this year, but he made it seem like he has no interest in coming back.
Posted by: FiNch | August 01, 2007 at 05:23 PM
Johan will bring the Twins 3 big time prospects. Not even a doubt about it. THis is easily THE best pitcher in major league baseball. And someone like the Yankees have the bankroll to lock him up. I say any GM is a fool to not do whatever it takes to get him.
Posted by: ozziethesaint | August 01, 2007 at 05:28 PM
"TJ surgery usually takes 2 years before the pitcher is back to full strength. Can Liriano be a big difference maker his first year back?"
can someone tell this to AJ Burnett please
Posted by: Dev0 | August 01, 2007 at 05:39 PM
Hughes and Melky would be more than enough to get Johan. The Yanks would have to be INSANE to deal Hughes and Joba in the same deal for anyone straight up.
Posted by: Ripwa | August 01, 2007 at 05:44 PM
Since when have the Yankees been sane?
Posted by: easton714 | August 01, 2007 at 05:58 PM
This just in: Melky is not that good. Man, people overrate that kid.
Also, people give a skewed view of MN's payroll. With the new ballpark (they get ZERO revenue from their current one in concessions) their payroll will be around $100 M by 2010. They have more than enough to keep both Hunter and Santana, even with raises to Mauer/Morneau/Cuddyer.
Posted by: djskilbr | August 01, 2007 at 06:04 PM
dj,
Only one small problem there, they can't keep Hunter if he says he's leaving this winter and the same with Johan after next season. THis debate isn't really about can they afford them, it's about them being sick of how things are and wanting to leave. If you are the Twins and you know Johan is walking, you have to trade him.
and to the Yankee fan that said Hughes and Melky is enough LOL are you serious? this is the absolute best pitcher in all of baseball right now. Plus he will only be what 29 next season? this IS the deal you use whatever it takes to make
Posted by: ozziethesaint | August 01, 2007 at 06:33 PM
I love to get on here and read about what other fans think, but sometimes you Sox/Yanks fans make me sick. You're as greedy and ridiculous minded as your owner. The one guy that said he'd kill to have Johan in a Sox uni... is your rote not stacked already??? Do you pathetic Sox fans not talk about how great your prospects are? Yet it's not enough to have Beckett, Schill, Dice, and Wake, now we need Johan too. I hate being a small market fan because we can't even afford to pay the best available players come draft time, but I'm enthralled that I'm not as greedy as you Big Market @ssholes. Freakin Sox need Santana...gimme a break. Baseball needs parity, thats more like it.
Posted by: KB | August 01, 2007 at 06:35 PM
Never gonna happen K8. and It will only get worse if Mark Cuban ever gets a team.
Posted by: ozziethesaint | August 01, 2007 at 06:44 PM
I understand that. It's just frustrating to watch the same f'in team (buccos) go through the same dumb motions every year. It's got to be the hardest franchise in MLB to be a fan of. I understand the Sox and Yanks fans wanting to be competitive; I just wish the bigger market fans would appreciate the flexibility and opportunities their teams have as opposed to being obsessed with acquiring better players.
Posted by: KB | August 01, 2007 at 06:52 PM
well not even money would save the Pirates. They make horrible personal moves everywhere. THey waste what money they do spend. And they draft horribly. Moskos would have been a 2nd rounder at best for any other team.
Posted by: ozziethesaint | August 01, 2007 at 06:58 PM
I'm a Red Sox fan, not a Yankee fan. Johan is clearly the best pitcher in baseball? The guy does have a FIP at almost 4 and a BABIP at .253. That ranks him 18th in the AL in FIP. Not to mention the fact that he is older that he is older than 10 of those players. Personally, i don't believe he is 28, i think he is probably 30-32, but i have no facts to prove that so it doesn't matter. But getting back to him being the best pitcher in baseball, maybe. Over the prior 3 season, no doubt about it. I can tell you as a fact that he isn't the most valuable pitcher. He is a 28 year old rental. In Hughes you get a 21 year old potential ace. He is as close to a lock in baseball. You have him locked up for 5 years. Honestly, i wouldn't trade Hughes straight up for Santana at this point. Hughes and Melky, 2 young great and alright players under control for 5 and 4 years are certainly enough for Santana.
Posted by: Ripwa | August 01, 2007 at 07:28 PM
Ripwa,
What a bunch of BS. What planet are you from? Do you think he won two Cy Young awards for his looks? Well who is the best pitcher baseball then? Please inform me and everyone else in baseball.
Posted by: MagikLair | August 01, 2007 at 07:50 PM
Jeez calm down. I didn't say he wasn't the best pitcher, i said he might be. How do you want to judge it, by numbers or stuff, this year or the past 5 years? I'll tell you what is a fact, statistically he is not even in the top 3 this year. He ranks 33th in FIP, 5th ERA+ and 4th in VORP. Peavy is 1st in FIP, 3rd in VORP, and 3rd in ERA+.
Posted by: Ripwa | August 01, 2007 at 08:01 PM
Santana is also getting a lot more luck than Peavy:
Santana
LOB% - 83.6%
BABIP - .253
Peavy
LOB% - 77.8%
BABIP - .302
Posted by: Ripwa | August 01, 2007 at 08:06 PM
Johan is by far the best pitcher in baseball. Anyone who's put up those ridiculous numbers for the past three years(has been the best over that span and should have 3 Cy Youngs, working on a fourth) in the AL, let alone the AL Central has to be the best. Peavy's been in the best pitchers park in baseball with the much, much lighter hitting NL West, ERA+ be damned. Hughes, or anyone for that matter, will be lucky to put up numbers close to him in the next several years.
Posted by: buehrlebro | August 01, 2007 at 08:10 PM
I also should note his BABIP at home has been over .280. His BABIP anywhere else than the BABIP balooning Metrodome has been in the .220's. His stuff is so dominating that he gets a lot of weak pop ups and squivers.
Posted by: buehrlebro | August 01, 2007 at 08:13 PM
As we said about Zambrano earlier this year when trade rumors popped up, I think if Santana would be open to an extension and the Twins open to a 48hr window, the Twins could flat out rob somebody.
If Santana's agent was Boras I'd say this was out of the question, but since it's not maybe there's a chance, although the thought of what he'll make is just insane. Would 25/yr be enough? Or will he get the legendary 30?
Posted by: tmar | August 01, 2007 at 08:46 PM
Red Sox? They have too much salary tied up in these players for '08/'09 (not realistically tradeable) to get Santana......
J.D. Drew ($15M)
Matsuzaka (salary +posting) = $10M+
J. Lugo ($8-9M)
J. Varitek ($11M)
(Ortiz is easily worth his $13M and Manny his $17M)
ASSUMING Mike Lowell (current $9M) and Curt Schilling (current $13M) leave or return at significantly lower rates, the Red Sox have too much immovable payroll and it will prevent them from offering more than $20-25 annual maximum for Johan Santana. The Yankees look as follows for '08::::
D. Jeter ($22M)
J. Damon ($13M)
A. Rodriguez ($16M + $9M deffered {TEX}).. may opt out of contract after '07)
J. Giambi (FA)
B. Abreu (FA after '07)
M. Mussina (FA)
A. Pettitte (FA after '07)
R. Clemens (FA after '07)
M. Rivera (FA after '07)
J. Posada (FA after '07)
The Yankees don't have any major obligations after '08... they will finally lose their position as the highest payroll-paying club in baseball, likely to the Red Sox, Angels, Mets or Dodgers. Rivera and Posada will likely both get multi-year deals to carry through '08, with no more than $15M/per year each (likely less, $12-13M) and Abreu could be resigned or let go for Torri Hunter, Pettitte can remain via $16M option, Clemens could come back again....but the Yankees hands will finally be untied from Giambi after '08. BIG PLUS... The Red Sox have JD Drew "locked up" at $15M/per for a LONG WHILE. ++++++++
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 12:25 AM
Look at this comparison:
Barry Zito: 2002 AL Cy Young, no injuries, age 28 opening day for Giants in '07, ERA slighly below 3.60 entering '07, AL pitcher w/ postseason XP, ERA on decline for multiple seasons
Johan Santana 2004, 2005, 2006 AL Cy Young, no injuries, age 30 opening day '09, 3.16 ERA (8/1/07), AL pitcher w/ postseason XP, ERA , K/9in consistent for mulitple seasons
If the Giants gave 7/$126M, i think Santana will get at least 6 years (likely 7) at a MINIMUM, STARTING NEGOTIATIONS WAGE OF $25M,yr. No other way. I think the Yankees will give him 7/$200M just to be sure. Boston cannot afford that, as I iterated above.
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 12:38 AM
CORRECTION: Johan Sanata did NOT win the 2005 AL Cy Young Award; Bartolo Colon won it with his above-average but not good-enough year. i just assumed, but that was really a coup anyway..... not the same as Brandon Webb winning it with a 3+ ERA in the NL!!!!!! Peavy was lousy that year though.
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 12:45 AM
Wow a Red Sox fan wouldnt trade Hughes for Santana straight up... you show a suprising amount of vision and insight... Clay Buchholz for Johan Santana would be an easy move though... his league (AA Eastern) has several good pitchers, including Yankees prospects Alan Horne (strikeout leader) and Jeff Marquez (wins leader) not to mention Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy..................................
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 12:48 AM
oh LOL Clay Buchholz was arrested in high school for stealing a few dozen laptops from his school.... dee dee dee!
If i ever see him pitch in AA (i work at one of the parks and see a few games) ill make sure i yell out, "HEY CLAY, i gotta nice laptop computer here.. brand new... youre not gonna steal it, are ya?!!!!
Also, Peter Gammons said on ESPN July 31, 2007 that Melky Cabrea is a "solid" defensive player with little ability to hit for average and no power potential. Huh? Defense is better than Coco Crisp (much, MUCH better arm) and offensive ability is much underrated (.289 AVG in 339 AB as of 8/1/07.... career .283 hitter.... and a YOUNG KID!!!! Come on, Peter! Enough bias already! You compliment the Yanks all the time and then make totally unfounded claims when comparing to the Red Sox... go work for NESN
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 12:54 AM
JD
You act like there is ever such a thing as spending too much money for either the Yanks or Red Sox. Not going to ever happen. If they want someone, they will go get them, money be damned
Posted by: ozziethesaint | August 02, 2007 at 01:05 AM
Ridiculous. Santana isn't a "lock" for best pitcher in baseball? He's in the Varsity league (the AL) and easily the best division in baseball. And his team (I'm a Twins fan) doesn't have much offense comparatively. If not for all those factors, he'd be working on his FOURTH Triple CROWN year, not only Cy Young. Bartolo winning in 2005 is an absolute joke, as wins mean NOTHING for pitchers. Remember, Santana might be "4th" right now in '07 but he is the best 2nd half pitcher in baseball history and I have little doubt he'll finish atop K's and ERA when all is said and done. W's don't matter anyway for a pitcher. Most ridiculous stat in baseball at this point.
Santana is EASILY the best pitcher in baseball. Over the last 3 1/2 years, the next best pitcher in the varsity (AL) league has an ERA almost ONE RUN above his. That is insane.
And yes, the Twins have the money and WILL re-sign him. Kiss your dreams goodbye big market bs'ers.
Posted by: djskilbr | August 02, 2007 at 03:33 AM
If you expect the Twins to trade Santana before he leaves, its gonna take at least 4 blue chip prospects. Especially if none of them are major league ready. Probably 3 pitchers and 1 position player. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball and he will command primo in return. Bulcholz and Ellsbury won't be enough.
Posted by: JoeM | August 02, 2007 at 08:14 AM
On Santana, what don't you guys understand about the fact he is a rental. No one is going to tax the future unless they can assure him resigning. 1 year of anyone is not worth 5 years of 3 good cheap players.
JD:
Giambi is signed through 08 with a $5 million buyout in 09. So there is $21M
Jeter is signed 2010. There is $20 M.
Damon is signed through 2009. There is $13M
Matsui through 2009. $13M
Pavano is signed through 2008 at $11M. But he has an option in 2009 for $13M with a $2M buyout.
The Yanks already have about $50 million on the books for 2008. The problem with that is they are taken up by players they don't want to play. Out of the 5 players i listed, if more than 1 player is on the team come 2009 I'll be shocked. That mean they need to replace those players. The Red Sox have about $60M tied up already for 2009 spread between Lugo, Drew, Papi, Dice-K, and Bekcett. The thing about those players, i could see anywhere between 3-5 of those players still playing in 2009. I would bet that the Sox will have more money to throw around in the 2008 off season.
Posted by: Ripwa | August 02, 2007 at 08:30 AM
A-Rod to the Redsox for 30 million, then Santana to the Yankees for 30 million.. You never know, it could happen!
Posted by: Bosox4416 | August 02, 2007 at 08:43 AM
Yes i see your point... didnt remember Pavano was still on there.. but remember that the Yankees will be getting even more revenue than they are now, due to the new ballpark, and they also have more financial flexibility than the Red Sox. The Yankees will keep Matsui and Jeter, they will buy out Giambi and might trade Damon this winter. Plus, they probably wont sign any middle-of-the-road pichters at $10-12M / year, so they reallistically have much more money and flexibility. Boston also has to consider a new stadium in the future. And if anyone decides to trade for Johan Santana, the Yankees could get him via their pitching prospects, but they won't; they'll chance him leaving through FA.
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 09:57 AM
JD - your comments make zero sense. It's as if I'm listening to Johnny Damon attempt to piece sentences together. A little less tongue and a lot more teeth, okay? (kind of what I tell your girlfriend).
Here's the truth. After this season, the Sox will be out from under numerous large contracts:
Matt Clement (9.5 mil) Schilling (13 mil)
Lowell (9 mil)
plus other small contracts, freeing up at least $30 mil. Ultimately, I think the Sox will resign both Schill and Lowell, but don't forget that Zambrano might still test the FA water. Dollar for dollar, Z is a much better pitcher seeing how many believe Santana could bring $25-30 per and Zambrano would only require $17 ish. The sox can certainly afford to make any move.
And this horrible "Melky is better than Coco" comment is almost humorous. Coco is playing a GG CF and has been said to be Boston's first half MVP because of his defense. Now, maybe I didn't read your post correctly (with all the slurring and studdering it's kind of difficult), but Melky doesn't even compare. Coco is a steal at 3/12. A Melky/Wily Mo comparison makes a ton more sense.
Posted by: matt8149 | August 02, 2007 at 09:58 AM
The Red Sox will re-sign Mike Lowell because he's been teriffic and will be affordable. Why dump him? A-Rod is obviously better, but were talking at least a $15M difference in salary annually (I think it will be more). A-Rod at $30M / year is the STARTING POINT --- I see him getting something like 8/$250M possibly.
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 10:00 AM
Zambrano at $17M? Thats another starting negotiation. He's not even 30, looks much better than Zito does now (Giants having second thoughts?) and has electric stuff. I think the Mets will play hard for him, but don't be suprised if the Cubs re-sign him.
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 10:02 AM
Wily Mo and Melky are different players; Wily Mo is power and no average, Melky is average and no power, plus Melky plays very good defense; his range is lesser than Crisp's but his arm is significantly better.
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 10:04 AM
You say that the Red Sox will be out of Lowell and Schilling's contracts, but they will likely re-sign both players. It would cost them around the same for Lowell, and probably a little more for Schilling. So Clement is the only guy who really comes off the books. The Yankees will have 3/4 of their payroll gone by November 2008.
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 10:07 AM
I haven't seen anyone take shots at anybody on this website before without even knowing who they are, matt8149. Thanks a lot. I hope everyone likes my "slurring" and "studdering" as much as your hopeless rebuts.
Posted by: JD | August 02, 2007 at 10:10 AM
How can the Sox not sign Lowell back? Unless they get A-Rod or trade for someone there is NO ONE out their. Lowell likes it here and his teammates love him. If they can get a 2-3 year contract around $10M a year they have to do it.
Melky is nothing like Pena. I would rather have Pena, personally, but they aren't anything alike. Pena is a power hitter that plays below average D. Melky is an overrated hitter that can play some legit D. Neither will probably amount to much of anything.
To say Melkys D is much better than Coco is basically retarded. Coco is the 2nd ranked player in the ML in Defensive Win Shares. Cocos RZR is .18 better than Melky and Crisp has a FRAA of 18 to Melky's 12.
Posted by: Ripwa | August 02, 2007 at 10:26 AM
There is nothing more pathetic than insulting someone on a baseball message board.
Posted by: beauhoopman | August 02, 2007 at 02:06 PM
Wow, I can’t believe this conversation has jumped around to remarkably off-point, ridiculous conversations…
Couple quick notes:
1) Coco is NOT THAT GOOD. Sure, he has great range because of his speed, but he doesn’t consistently catch the ball exceptionally well and has a noodle for an arm. “BUT crisp has a 3.11RF/.905ZR this year” ~ right? Well, what was it last year again? Try 2.49/.837. On his career ~ 2.61/.869… and his previous best had come back in 2002 with a 2.71/.897 mark in 269 Innings. He’s injury prone, chokes in big situations and has yet to play consistent baseball for more than a month in his entire career! At the plate he is about par with Eric Byrnes, if Crisp is having a good year…
2) Melky is probably WORSE! This guy would probably be lucky to hit .290/.350/.430 on a full season at his peak! Granted, right now he is hitting about that without the SLG, and that is good enough for about 14th in Baseball (of 21 fulltime CFers). IF he does manage to put up a line in the .280-290/.340-350/.400-430 range on a kinda-consistent basis though, I guess he would be considered better than Crisp at the plate and since Crisp isn’t a consistent on the field then maybe there could be an argument on those two ~ but that arguing “whos better” from 2 guys in the bottom third of the scale; so whats the point? Oh, and that “Crisp has been the BoSox MVP because of his D” thing is the biggest load of… well you know… that I have ever heard! IF that is the case, then they must have a horribly one dimensional group of players that aren’t worth a damn ~ but we know that isn’t the case so…
3) Johan probably isn’t getting traded, and if he signs with someone other than Min (for 2009 ~ 1.5 years away!) it will probably not be the Yanks or RedSox ~ so whats the point of talking about them as if it’s a certainty? The Sox have their pitching set already; the Yankees are trying to bring up kids instead and if the team is sold who knows what the new owner will do salary wise… Why is that the talk of this thread? Teams like Mil, Stl, Phil, Arz, LA, SD, Balt, Sea, Ana, shoot and maybe even TB or Tex, would probably be a smarter choice for a destination IF he’s not in Min…
4) How will the revenue be dramatically higher for the Yankees with a new ballpark? Minn I understand (they draw nothing at the Met); NY basically sells out every game though so how will it increase that much? Maybe it holds a bit more people, but it’s not going to make a dramatic difference… I don’t see the point of saying “new stadium” will equal “more to spend” on a team that already has the #1 attendance in baseball…
5) Santana is such a safer bet for the money then Zambrano, that’s not even close! Everyone has questioned weather we will see Big-Z’s arm fall off sometime soon ~ did that fear just randomly go away all of a sudden? Here, let me sum it up in one word; COLON…
6) And who can we really say is a better pitcher than Santana? The next best in the AL over the last few years would be Holliday and I guess Sabathia, Escobar and Lacky (must be nice to be in a pitcher park like Anaheim, hehehe) are up there getting close to him (and none are even in the same ballpark as Johan!). Otherwise, who has been that hot in the AL for more than just 1 year at a time? 1 random year does not make you the best in the game… And since Santana’s ERAs rival those of the best guys in the NL, which is a much weaker league, then how can we say any of them are really better? Since 2004 (89GS or more) only Clemens (2.57) has had a better ERA than Santana (2.78) with the next 8 players being Peavy (2.99), Carpenter (3.14), Sheets (3.18), Zambrano (3.21), Oswalt (3.23), Webb (3.34), Halladay (3.41) and Chris Young (3.43)…
Lets look at that again:
Clemens (2.57)
SANTANA (2.78)
Peavy (2.99)
Carpenter (3.14)
Sheets (3.18)
Zambrano (3.21)
Oswalt (3.23)
Webb (3.34)
Halladay (3.41)
Chris Young (3.43) ~ fuelled almost solely by this year; but who woulda guessed he’s in the top 10!
So he beats the best of the best (minus Clemens) in the NL for ERA over the last 3.5 years and we are even questioning his being the best in the game? ***rolls eyes***
Posted by: darkstar1661 | August 02, 2007 at 02:28 PM
Darkstar
1)your right coco is NOT taht good, but his defense is incredible, obviously you havent seen red sox games day in and day out.. and I dont konw what your talking about about him not catching balls that well?? What does taht mean anyways?
2)your right, i dont get the melky thing anyways... thats the result of yankee fans(red sox fans as well), rating their prospects way higher than they should be
3)Johan may or may not get traded but in free agency he has a better shot of going to the sox or yankees than anyone else... he will be looking at 22-28mil a year probably 5-7 years... who can afford this besides the sox and yankees... the only others are the cubs(possibly, who knows with new ownership), angels, dodgers and mets... TB? are you kidding me?
4) yanks will get higher revenue because the number of luxury boxes is something like double or more... the old yankee stadium didnt have many at all
5) agreed
6)in the AL you could make a case (note im not saying a gree) taht lackey, and CC have been just as good or better.. maybe even Liriano? I also like peavy and young in the NL
Posted by: theMATTador | August 02, 2007 at 03:21 PM
The Yankees had multiple consultants working full time figuring out ways to maximize revenue when designing the new stadium. There are smart people - more boxes, higher prices, new media deals, etc.
Posted by: beauhoopman | August 02, 2007 at 03:27 PM
"4) How will the revenue be dramatically higher for the Yankees with a new ballpark? Minn I understand (they draw nothing at the Met); NY basically sells out every game though so how will it increase that much? Maybe it holds a bit more people, but it’s not going to make a dramatic difference…"
The main reason for the new Yankee Stadium is that the currently has 16 luxury boxes. The new stadium will actually hold a few thousand less people but will have 60+ luxury boxes. Current luxury boxes run $3,000-$6,600 per game for the 10 lower end ones. The 6 higher end ones don't have prices listed on the web.
A low ball estimate of 40 new boxes at $3,000 per game times 81 games comes out to almost $10 million in revenue per season. I have no idea how often they will sell out all 60 boxes, but, I'd imagine they'd average more than $3,000 per game per luxury box.
Posted by: yanksfan | August 02, 2007 at 03:41 PM
TheMATTador…
1)
~ I watched him daily for Cleveland and unfortunately see more BoSox games than I want to. His range (outside of this year so far) has always been more of a hindrance to his play, he would make it to balls that many others wouldn’t and intrun would try to make the “EPSN top-ten” catch rather than play it on a hop ~ the result was a single turning into a double or triple for every amazing catch he pulled off... “he doesn’t catch it well” was trying to refer to that; he inst a great decision maker as to what to catch and what to play…
3)
~ Nah, not kidding you at all… TB could very well make a splash and pay him a lot ~ it would be one big contract for a team with none at this point, and would be just the type of player a low-spender would want to make. Who would you rather risk everything on, Johan or a guy like Soriano who has had an up-and-down career? ~ and let’s not forget that Wash WAS willing to make Soriano that guy for them…
The Yanks, RedSox, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Angeles, etc already have so many high contracts that I don’t see them taking on one of the biggest to ever hit the market. They do sign huge contracts, but it’s usually about 50/50 with just many more middle-tier guys going to the big clubs when it comes down to it. Just like A-Rod signing with Tex, a couple surprise teams will try and make him their corner-stone if he does hit the market… (see also KC signing Gil Meshe as an example of a team making an unexpected big contract for a player they think will stabilize the team ~ it wasn’t an extreme, but you can see what I mean) (or look at Sea and the contracts to Beltre, Sexson, Washburn, Weaver, etc…)
TB makes a ton of sense in my mind; they pay only 25M total for their team now so even with Santana they would only be in the 50M range. They have an offense to compete, they just need pitchers so they can start winning. It would be the smartest move they ever made if they were willing to increase payroll (and would probably pay a good chunk of itself with a name to actually go see)
Oh, and anyone can pretty much afford him as long as they are not hindered by a ton of bad contracts already… (Making a team like Balt this year a non-factor but in 1.5 years maybe not…)
4)
~ Ok fine, they will make more money because of the boxes I guess, but I still don’t think it would mean payroll goes up much, if even at all; esp with the probability of new owner-ship taking over… Who else is going to be a "I dont care what it costs me, I want to win" type like George? The Rev-Share money alone will probably turn many off from keeping it that high...
6)
~ Yeah, you can try to make a case; but it’s hard to prove it when the results just say that Johan is by far the best. I like the other players you mentioned a lot as well (outside of Young and his 1/2 year of amazing stats), but we are talking about a guy who has shown he can sustain it a bit more.
Lacky really surprised me but he is in a pitchers park and in a division with mainly pitchers parks, CC is great but can be so inconsistent, Doc is amazing for Tor ~ when not hurt, Peavy is amazing as well but its in a park where its hard to tell how much is him and how much is really PETCO… Santana is just sick no matter what, and its year after year after year…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | August 02, 2007 at 04:32 PM
Alright i already gave the stats that show Peavy is far and away the best pitcher this season. The only response i see is "he pitches in a pitchers park." Well that is just stupid and lazy. Clearly all the people that are saying that haven't taken the 3 seconds to look at his splits:
Home
ERA - 3.36
K/PA - 23%
GB% - 44%
Away
ERA - 0.98
K/PA - 30.6%
GB% - 53%
How exactly is PETCO helping him? He is pitching much better on the road.
Posted by: Ripwa | August 02, 2007 at 04:54 PM
"Alright i already gave the stats that show Peavy is far and away the best pitcher this season."
uh, dude ~ thats the point... THIS SEASON ~ maybe, but we are talking "best pitcher in the game" not "best pitcher at this specific moment, to this point in this season"
But you want to talk Peavy Home vs Away and how it affects his numbers? Well, where has he pitched on the road this year?
Houston
LA X 2
Florida
Arizona
SanFran
Tampa
Wash
While facing Bal, Bos, ChiC, Cincy, Col, Ari, LA, Mil, NYM, Philly and STL at home…
So which of those lists seems like the easier to pitch against? I count him facing 1 team (Fla) on the road that really scores many runs and in mainly even more pitchers parks … This years H/R split difference is because of who he played more than anything!
For his career though he is 3.11 ERA, .254 K/PA at home vs 3.64 ERA, .221 on the road… Oh and then there is that .228/.289/.354 against line at home vs the .245/.313/.412 line on the road…
So I may be a bit more careful when you say its “stupid and lazy not to look up stats” that you used while apparently not really understand that much…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | August 02, 2007 at 05:31 PM
Alright, so he played easier team at home. How does that show the home park is helping him out? Does PETCO not let in good teams when he pitches?
What does it matter that he was the best pitcher the last 3 years? The guy has logged about 300 innings over the past 3 years. He is 28 years old (atleast he says so). I want the best pitcher going forward. Not just this season, which he isn't, but the next 4 or 5 year, which he probably wont be. I would be shocked if he is anywhere near the pitcher he is now, which is not nearly what he was in past years, come 2009.
Posted by: Ripwa | August 02, 2007 at 05:42 PM
Ripwa,
"Alright, so he played easier team at home. How does that show the home park is helping him out? Does PETCO not let in good teams when he pitches?"
uhh, you have it backwards... he has played the EASY TEAMS ON THE ROAD ~ in equally easy parks really... His Road numbers are probably in turn much lower than they normally would have been if he had made appearances in say Philly, NYM, ChiC etc... AT HOME he has played the normal mix of bums and mashers, which explains why his home ERA is close to what it is for his career…
SO, only low-scoring teams in pitchers parks on the road = helps his road numbers a ton and his road numbers will probably be lower than they should be (which they are)
Good mix of easy/hard at home = home numbers probably stay around his career average (which they are)
And in turn ~ his home park helps because of the numbers you blatantly ignored:
For his career
3.11 ERA, .254 K/PA, .228/.289/.354 against line at home
3.64 ERA, .221 K/PA, .245/.313/.412 against line on the road
And you seriously say “Peavy is a safer bet in 2009 than Santana”??? HUH? Is this the first year you have even followed baseball???
Peavy had a 4.09 ERA last year. fueled mainly by a horrendous (for him & his situation) 4.46 in the first half! There was talk that he had completely lost it; I remember hearing on the radio stations that SD should consider making him a reliever… (I live in SoCal so get the SD stations) Sure it was pre-mature; but whos to say it doesn’t happen again… Those 06 numbers did look a lot like his 02 & 03 numbers and on his career he has 3 seasons of 4+ ERA and 2 completed seasons of 3- ERAs; Peavy is anything but a lock to be amazing in the future!
Santana on the other hand has never had his numbers really sway what so ever. The guy is quite possibly the best pitcher we have seen in the last 30 years or more, he dominates at all times no matter what at an extremely consistent pace… I mean look at this, these are his ERAs the last 6 years:
2002 ~ 2.99 ERA
2003 ~ 3.07 ERA
2004 ~ 2.61 ERA
2005 ~ 2.87 ERA
2006 ~ 2.77 ERA
2007 ~ 2.92 ERA (so far, plus he’s an extreme 2nd half pitcher)
Career 3.16 ERA
IN THE FREAKIN AL!!!
So give me 1 pitcher with a more consistent, dominating run than that… Maybe he’s a year or two older than some other guys who *might do ok and possibly a little better the next couple years* ~ but as far as better pitcher ~ THERE ISNT ONE!
Its like going to the track and betting on either the 5/2 odds “because he wins every race” or taking the 1/60 odd because “well he ran great the last time out”
… dude, think what you want; but I cant imagine ANYONE ageing with your theory of “Santana isn’t a safe bet a few years down the road” over someone like Peavy who flat-out tanked within the last year…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | August 02, 2007 at 06:36 PM
Talking about teams ready to throw insane cash at a pitcher and hardly any mentions of the Rangers? Hicks gave Chan Ho $65 million and Millwood another $60...If pitchers the caliber of Carlos Zambrano or Johan Santana hits the market, the Rangers will spend as much as anyone. I would be surprised if Hicks, knowing the Rangers need pitching as bad as anyone in baseball, doesn't throw a ridiculous offer at a 'can't miss' guy like Johan...He's proven he's willing to spend money when he feels the situation is right. He's taken alot of heat lately for not caring about winning and not spending enough money, so I've got to imagine he's just waiting for a chance to make a huge splash.
Posted by: N41D | August 03, 2007 at 12:46 AM
If the Twins were to keep Santana then next year they would have one of the top rotations in the league.
Santana
Liriano
Garza
Slowey
Baker
(Bonser,Perkins,Blackburn)
Posted by: Meyer15 | August 03, 2007 at 02:43 PM