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« White Sox Talking Extension With Dye | Main | Does Johan Santana Want Out? »
Failed Trades
Let's take a look at some deals that almost happened yesterday.
Kyle Farnsworth for Bob Wickman. This would've been fun, reunions with former teams for both players. However, the Braves wanted the Yankees to pick up all of Farnsworth's salary, apparently. Brian Cashman didn't want to make him go away that badly, and Wickman would probably be a nonfactor back in the AL.
Mariners acquire Mark Loretta. Eh. Let's not overstate the abilities of Loretta. It sounds like Tim Purpura wanted some kind of legitimate prospect for him.
Rockies send Jeff Baker and others to Tampa Bay for Dan Wheeler. We can't really evaluate this one without knowing who else would've been involved. And the Rays don't really have a place to play Baker; they're already squeezed finding playing time for Jonny Gomes. If Rocco Baldelli ever gets healthy they'll really have a pickle. I mentioned in a recent interview at D-Rays Bay - Wheeler would probably be one of the ten best relievers available if he was a free agent after the season. The Rays can pump up his value and get a promising young pitcher next year, as the Royals did with Octavio Dotel.
Brewers send Tony Gwynn Jr., Zach Jackson, and another minor league for Eric Gagne. This could've been the difference-maker that Scott Linebrink ain't in a tight NL Central race. But it doesn't seem like Doug Melvin got a chance to counter the Red Sox offer, so you can't really fault him.
Red Sox send Wily Mo Pena and Craig Hansen to White Sox for Jermaine Dye. Well, there has to be some statistical way to evaluate whether this pair beats two draft picks. You'd have to know the attrition rates of first/second rounders, and get some scouts on Pena and Hansen to see if they can ever reach their potential. If I was the Kenny Williams I probably would've made the deal. I think Pena gets docked in value from where he was two years ago, but still has pretty much the same upside if you manage him right. Who knows, maybe Williams will go after Pena again this winter.
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Was there nothing to the Bronson Arroyo for Jo-Jo Reyes and Yunel Escobar deal?
I thought that was too good to be true...
Posted by: tfields01 | August 01, 2007 at 12:22 PM
Considering the return he got for Gagne, I bet Jon Daniels would've jumped all over the Linebrink package (William Inman & friends) if Melvin would've waited him out.
Posted by: zubes007 | August 01, 2007 at 12:30 PM
"Mariners acquire Mark Loretta. Eh. Let's not overstate the abilities of Loretta. It sounds like Tim Purpura wanted some kind of legitimate prospect for him."
Yet he settled for next to nothing on Ensberg and Wheeler? With the way it ended, it cost both of them for Wiggy and cash considerations from SD...
Posted by: darkstar1661 | August 01, 2007 at 12:49 PM
Phil Rogers also noted the Cubs were trying to get Ryan Church from the Nats, no doubt for low rated minor leaguers.
I also have a feeling the Brewers didn't make any significant moves because all their trade offers revolved around Tony Gwynn Jr. If that was the case, then I'm sure teams never took them seriously. TG Jr. is Joey Gathright part II.
Posted by: Teetz | August 01, 2007 at 01:22 PM
How about some of the Chad Cordero deals? Didn't the Nats want Humber and more? That seems just silly. Humber's having a pretty decent first full season back after surgery. A factor I hadn't even accounted for was that he's in a pure hitters league in the PCL. His command has been impeccable though, a really good sign for a breaking ball pitcher who also has an above average fastball.
I still think Humber will be the gem of that 2004 Rice class, and with Jorge Sosa coming out of the pen last night for multiple innings against the Brewers, he may get a shot sooner than later. If the Mets want to recall Pelfrey, they have to put someone on the DL (although Thursday would be his day and there's still no word on LoDuca). The only other viable option is Brian Lawrence.
Posted by: MEddler | August 01, 2007 at 01:36 PM
Another one would be Clay Hensley for Mike Lamb:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20070801-9999-1s1padmoves.html
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | August 01, 2007 at 02:15 PM
From my research on draft picks, late first round picks become good players about 11% of the time, second rounders about half of that (and I think he would yield a supplemental first as well; those picks are about as good as a second rounder, which is not that good).
For a useful player, late first rounders become useful players about 22% of the time, second rounders about half that again.
Pena and Hanson look like they will not be good players, but most probably are useful players, which I defined in my study as players who made it to arbitration and beyond, but don't have stats good enough to be a "good" player. Due to time contraints on data collection back then (2004, The Baseball Cube only easily provided BA and ERA, but was only source of draft info that I could compile and analyze relatively faster), good players hit over .275 or had an ERA under 4.20 plus have played over 6 seasons (i.e. made free agency), which I then tweaked if I saw a player classified as useful who I viewed as good, like Matt Williams.
I view Pena and Hansen as probably useful players, with some chance of being good, so I would definitely value them more than the two draft picks, particularly since they would contribute today whereas those picks probably will not start contributing until 3-5 years from when they are signed, and even if they were traded to get immmediate help, I think you have to wait about a year after signing to be able to trade off your draft pick, if I remember the rule correctly. I presume the ChiSox is not rebuilding and want more immediate help.
Posted by: obsessivegiantscompulsive | August 01, 2007 at 02:35 PM
Nice to see Tim Purpura actually asking for someone useful in return for Lamb. I wonder who the Padres were offering instead of Hensley? Hensley was one of the guys I mentioned in my multitude of posts that the Astros could target.
Too bad Ensberg had already been designated for assignment. If Purpura had waited to do that, then the Padres would not have him yet, which would have allowed Purpura to press them a little harder with Lamb. By designating Ensberg when he did and then trading to the Padres, he weakend his bargaining strength with the Padres for Loretta and Lamb, which was stupid because the Padres were one of the teams that could clearly could have used Loretta and/or Lamb.
Another win by Purpura!
Posted by: mymrbig | August 01, 2007 at 02:42 PM
"Phil Rogers also noted the Cubs were trying to get Ryan Church from the Nats, no doubt for low rated minor leaguers."
Yeah, drunken Jim probably wanted Felix Pie and Rich Hill though, that guy is greedy. Did he really want Peflrey and Humber for Chad Cordero?
Posted by: nrmax88 | August 01, 2007 at 03:43 PM
No they're saying it was a three team deal now, the D'Backs get Heilman, the Nats get Humber and Quentin, and the Mets get Cordero.
Why the Mets would ever trade a proven second half, high quality setup man and a top pitching prospect just finally getting his arm together after TJ surgery for a closer who reeks of arm troubles is beyond me.
Bowden likes Milledge to, but the Mets weren't willing to discuss him. I think it might have taken Humber and Milledge straight up for Cordero, which is even crazier, especially with Beltran on the DL.
Posted by: MEddler | August 01, 2007 at 04:03 PM
A closer who is untested as a setup man and would be used in that role, I should add. If the Mets needed a closer, that might have been a more reasonable deal, but they don't, they have one of the best this year in Wagner.
Posted by: MEddler | August 01, 2007 at 04:04 PM
Biggest mistake was the white sox not trading dye. I'm sure that redsox would have tossed in a Low-A type "promise" guy as they did with rangers on top of pena/hensen. Kenny williams has set that up to be another 3rd/4th place team again with no help in the future.
Posted by: jctrevor | August 01, 2007 at 04:38 PM
obsessivegiantscompulsive, Nice leg work man. I'm impressed. You've backed up my suspicions about how fans overvalue draft pics.
I think this non-trade is only a win for the ChiSox if they really value Dye enough to resign him. I think Hanson still has a better than average chance of becoming a "good" player.
Posted by: Mr_Punch | August 01, 2007 at 05:12 PM
If I were running the Yankees, I would have paid Farnsworth's salary twice.
They had the opportunity to pay Farnsworth, who is something of a loudmouth, to go pitch elsewhere, to get a proven reliever whom we know can handle New York, and they DIDN'T do it? Why the heck not?
This is a big missed opportunity by Cashman. Hoepfully, both pitchers will clear waivers and they can continue the money discussion. I'd love to see Wickman back in Pinstripes, though I think Joba Chamberlain is going to help them.
Posted by: Timmer | August 02, 2007 at 09:24 AM
As a Braves fan the Braves should have just paid for Farnsworth's salary to get him. Wickman is awful. He has just fallen off a cliff this year. Hell the Braves should have paid to get someone to take him.
At least Farnsworth actually pitched good for the Braves. Hell Farnsworth was nearly unhittble with the Braves. Only 15 hits in 27 innings back in 2005 for the Braves.
The damn Yankees can have Wickman if they want him back that bad.
Hopefully they can still make this happen.
Posted by: Tim | August 02, 2007 at 01:30 PM
The Yanks don't want Wickman, Timmy. Your damn Braves can keep him. Why the hell would the Yanks want Wickman "that bad"? They don't, no one does.
Posted by: b_diddy_7 | August 03, 2007 at 01:10 AM