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« Waiver Trade Rules | Main | Failed Trades »
It sounds like the White Sox will truly entertain a contract extension for right fielder Jermaine Dye, but only if they get him at a discount price once again. They've paid just $16.75MM for Dye to hit .280/.344/.542 for them over 381 games so far since 2005. Among right fielders, only Vladimir Guerrero has slugged higher from 2005 to present.
Dye says "Something can probably get done." Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times believes Dye wants three years, but the White Sox are hesistant to even do two. I get the impression the Sox want to do one year with a reasonable option for 2009, but might guarantee the second year if the price is right. A decent comparable might be Jim Edmonds' two-year, $19MM extension. However, Dye wouldn't get the no-trade protection Edmonds did. And the Edmonds contract might actually serve as a cautionary tale for Kenny Williams.
The White Sox will have some offseason alternatives for right field - Kosuke Fukudome, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley, Geoff Jenkins, Trot Nixon, and Shawn Green. They'll have to weigh those players against Dye. Teams often pass on the in-house option just to get some fresh blood, even if it's not logical. We'll have to wait and see what the White Sox decide.
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So lets say an extension is worked out, and Dye returns healthy and hits .270/25/85 next year. The Sox still have black holes in CF, LF, SS, and 2B (unless Richar shows something)
Posted by: beauhoopman | August 01, 2007 at 10:21 AM
I look at Catcher, as another hole.
Posted by: pedrolourencosta | August 01, 2007 at 10:39 AM
Kenny Williams has alot of work to do and alot of hard decisions to make. Too many old and injury prone players.
Posted by: striker | August 01, 2007 at 11:38 AM
I actually did this the other day for someone ~ pointing out that they not only have all those holes, but their payroll might not allow for much to be added if it stays even close to what it currently stands at…
Here are the 08 contracts the ChiSox are currently on the hook for:
(and keep in mind they have a 2007 salary of 108.7 Million and a little less than 100M out of pocket ~ 9.5 of the 07 is paid by Philly for Thome & Arz for Vasquez)
1B Konerko 12M, C AJ 5.5M, DH Thome 14M, SP Vasquez 11.5M, SP Garland 12M, SP Buehrle 14M, SP Contreras 10M, RP MacDougal 2.65M, BC Toby Hall 1.75M, UT Ozuna 1M
~ total 84.4M locked up for those 10 players
Now, if we put that into their roster:
1B Konerko 12M
2B ???
SS ???
3B Fields .4M
RF ???
CF ???
LF ???
C AJ 5.5M
DH Thome 14M (*7M by Philly)
BC Hall 1.75M
BIF Richar .4M
BOF Owens .4M
UT Ozuna 1.02M
SP Buehrle 14M
SP Vasquez 11.5M
SP Garland 12M
SP Contreras 10M
SP Danks .4M
RP MacDougal 2.65M
RP Thornton .875M
RP Masset .4M
RP Logan .4M
RP ???
RP ???
CL Jenks .4M ~ (could be more, Arb eligible I think)
~ TOTAL 88.1M with holes at 2B, SS, RF, CF, LF and 2 RP.
Since they spent a little less than 100M out of pocket in 07 they probably stay around there and we should expect a payroll in the 107M range total (Phil will pay Thome 7M again). Well, that means about 20M total to spend for those holes. Signing Dye for say 8M brings that down to 12M to spend for 2B, SS, CF, LF, and 2RP
(… Of note Uribe has a 5M option, Erstad 3.5M option, I added Richar and Owens as the bench guys but they very well could start at 2B and CF (Esp Richar at 2B), and I left 2 BP spots open because it would probably be a need if trying to win anything)
I realize they could always deal someone in the Offseason, but it seems unlikely at this point because KW just doesn’t seem to want to trade anyone other than Contreras and its looking doubtful JoseC will even be desired by anyone. There is also the strong possibility they insert Richar and maybe Owens in the OF but that means they still need experience backups so it wouldn’t save a ton off what they will need to be buying of the FA market. They can trade some of their SP depth out of the minors to fill a hole or two, but that seems a step back for a team without a strong longterm system as it is…
I’ve looked at it a hundred different ways and I just don’t see how this team is in a good position at all right now. I really question why they didn’t do everything possible to make some payroll flexibility the last week…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | August 01, 2007 at 12:36 PM
Its silly to say he doesn't want to trade anyone except Contreras. Wanting to and receiving a fair deal is two different issues.
Kenny has made offseason moves and will again. Who knows what gms think but its not crazy to think one bites on Contreras.
Crede is still an option next year. He can play 3rd and Fields can be shifted to LF.
Uribe will be bought out (cheap). So you need a SS.
Richar prob plays 2b (cheap)
Depending on money unloaded with Contreras (assuming some is pd by the Sox) you can prob afford some option (not top tier of course in CF)
You don't need payroll flexibility now. You need it before next season which gives him time.
As far as 08 it really
depends on health and bullpen.
The Sox have some chips in the minors which they have not been afraid to trade.
Posted by: tdogg | August 01, 2007 at 01:41 PM
TDogg,
Well there was the Braves offer of Renteria + Top Pitching Prospect for Garland that was apparently turned down. Saves about 6M off 08 salaries, fills SS (SS will be thin in offseason) hole with an AS for 3yrs and brings another top prospect to system.
Otherwise, who else do they have that they could reasonably trade to create flexibility?
Buehrle isnt going anywhere now.
Konerko would create a bigger hole then it would fill.
Thome could be moved I guess, but it creates yet another big hole in the offense and doesn’t save the same kind of money. I think it would have been really smart to move him this month and do a quick rebuild, but that’s another topic completely and if they are trying to win in 08 you would probably want to keep him,
That leaves Garland, Vasquez & Contreras… With a rather nice looking package already turned down for Garland it looks like KW doesn’t want to ship him off. Vasquez also could have been moved while his stock was so high, but other GMs said that KW instead wanted to push JoseC.
OR Prospects ~ but that would not create any payroll flexibility. The Dollar Cost of the return would factor against the money available just the same as the FA options.
I agree they don’t need to worry about payroll flexibility until the offseason, but this is probably when they would have gotten the best return for the guys they could have dealt (Garland and Vasquez particularly, and anything to possibly help quicker than 3-6 years down the road for Dye really)
And then with your idea of moving Fields to LF and keeping Crede it would cost at least 5M (what Crede make in 07) in an arbitration case. If Dye and Crede are kept then we have about 7M left for SS, CF, a couple BP arms and a back-up infielder; with a lineup of:
1B Konerko ~ 2B Richar/??? ~ SS ??? ~ 3B Crede ~ LF Fields ~ CF ??? ~ RF Dye ~ DH Thome
Keeping with your Crede/Fields idea & if they are also able to trade Contreras we can maybe expect them to eat 1/2 of the money (reasonable I think) which would free up another 5M. We would still have only 12M for SS, CF, a couple BP arms and a backup infielder with experience.
Then we need to think about the FA market:
SS will be ~ Vizquel, Eckstein, Uribe & Izturis
(Each realistically will probably sign in the 4-5M range outside of probably Izturis who nobody wants I imagine)
CF will be ~ Jones, Hunter, Byrnes, Patterson, Bradley, Rowand, Cameron & Lofton
(Hard to imagine any signing for less than 8M a year with the exception of Lofton and Patterson)
(If needed)
LF will be ~ Bonds, Dunn (maybe), Jenkins, L.Gonzalez & Wilkerson
3B will be ~ A-Rod (Maybe), Lowell, Lamb & Pedro Feliz
2B will be ~ Kent, M.Giles, Castillo, Iguchi & Kaz Matsui
The market in the areas they might need is rather thin (well CF isn’t, but it’s an expensive market and they don’t have a ton of cash)
Who knows what actually happens, but as it currently stands the situation just doesn’t realistically look that good at all. As it stands there is little in payroll flexibility, little in the way of options in the minors (for bats), little available on the FA market and the one area they do have depth in the minors on is being blocked by huge contracts (the SP). Guess we’ll see…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | August 01, 2007 at 03:31 PM