The Miguel Tejada Situation

Not going to be happy if my Angels hand over two top prospects.

At this point, Tejada doesn't justify his salary. If he continues to regress he will be a salary dump by mid-season.

The problem with Braun is that he is still newer to the position. He is a natural shortstop who is getting used to the position. He even called Alex Rodriguez looking for advice since the two have a history.

Braun's errors are usually on hops as third is more instinctual than shortstop.

Give him a year or two.

maybe Palmeiro wasn't lying when he implied he got his juice from Tejada. that would explain his power loss, and should be a main factor on why no team should give up anything of value for him.

Why would the O's move Tejada to third? They have no replacement for him (Brandon Fahey?), not to mention they just picked up a solid, young, cheap 3B in Scott Moore. I could see a trade, but not a positional switch.

Too bad for Tejada that the DBacks couldn't afford him. He might look reborn in our sandbox.

Cubs? How much do people really think payroll is going to increase? This same team is already costing more in 08, the salary would have to go to the 130M range to add him.

Anaheim may be going cheaper in 08. Attendenve is getting lighter, Arty has mentioned money as of late and Idont think much is coming off the books.

And Whitesox, why do you say the Pads would be in on him? Don't they already have Kooz at 3rd and Greene at SS?

I doubt the Cubs would go after Tejada at this point. Like others have said, they've spent their money and the benefit of the aging Tejada over Theriot doesn't justify 26M over two years. Plus it looks like Soto may be an added power bat next year anyways.

"with none of their stars having career years by any means,"

Adun, can you explain that for me? Who is really having an off year? Well other than Zambrano I guess...

I sort of agree with Dunc. Lee hasnt hit for much power at all, hasnt driven in a lot of runs, Aram has been battling injuries and while 25 HRs isnt to shabby, most people probably expected 35-40 in this lineup in Wrigley, and Soriano has also been hurt and really hasnt hit for power with consistency until the last month or so.

Floyd and Jones have not hit for the power they did last year either. I really expected them to hit tons of homeruns and really score a lot of runs, which just hasnt happened until pretty recently. Theyre offense is hitting their stride now, but for most of the season a lot of cubs fans were probably a little disapointed with the lack of power early.

Calm down Adun... I didn't quote you as saying "off years" did I?

I just want you to explain how no one is having career years and if you feel anyone is having an off year. Get it? I would like evidence to what you said...

Alright, well, career year means that it is the best year in their career. D lee has had a better year (05), Soriano has (last year), Zambrano has (pretty much every year), and Ramirez has been the closest to his norm, although short on power numbers a bit. Actually, all of them had good years, besides Z anyway, but none had great years, which they are all very capable of. Average wise they are right around the norm, but down power wise. In Soriano's case, the leg problems have decreased his SBs dramatically as well.

For instance, Lilly is having a career year, probably mostly due to coming from the AL east to the NL central. Still, a career year.

Sorry everybody else, I don't want to be a homer and turn this post into Cubs like it happens all over, but I had to answer the question.

As for Tejada, I think the Cards make a whole lot of sense.

Yeah, I too am sorry if people don't like the Cubs stuff in this thread. Don't think it will be a hot one though so maybe its not a big deal...

Ok, so none of the guys you mention (outside of Lilly) are having "career years", cool deal. Couple questions to that now:
Can a "career year" happen twice over a players career?

&

"Actually, all of them had good years, but none had great years, which they are all very capable of"
Good years meaning what exactly? Pretty much their normals? I ask because the quote I reference below makes it sound as though you think they might be atleast a little lower than "Norm".

***"Ramirez has been the closest to his norm, although short on power numbers a bit." ~ that sounds as though you think the others are off, correct?***

Should a player be expected to play above their "norm" if they are capable?

Also re: non-stars, you mention Lilly being in the "career year" range, are there others on the team experencing this? It leads me to my next question which I will ask after reply...

"Can a "career year" happen twice over a players career?"

Yes, absolutely. If Ramirez has a better year than he ever has, it would be a career year. Then, whatever used to be the career year would no long be one...

"Should a player be expected to play above their "norm" if they are capable?"

I 'star', like Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Zambrano etc. can be expected to play better than their career norms because they are in the age where they typically are in their peaks. So, what they did the first 3 years of their careers would play heavily into the norms, but at the age of 28 to 34ish...I think its reasonable to think they will play above the "norm".

Also, take Lee for instance. His norm is like what, a .275ish average? He made major swing adjustments and since has been a well above 275ish hitter. I think you and I differ here as you thought he would regress in the second half (which he did some...but still hitting around .300, right?)and I believe that he is around a .300 to .315 hitter. So, while his career norm might be .275 or so...I believe him to now be a .300 or better hitter for at least the next few years. Does that make sense?

Ya missed 2 questions...

Do you think they (players you named) are playing under their normals? (as the ARam portion made it seem)

& who on the team do you feel might be experencing caree years, or atleast producing higher than expectations? You mentioned Lilly, anyone else?

Dbl post = no prob from me ~ as you know my phone double posts almost everything...

Daryle Ward's career year is the obvious reason for the Cubs success this year.

"Do you think they (players you named) are playing under their normals? (as the ARam portion made it seem)"

I think they are playing under what I expect from them powerwise in their peak years. I also expected Soriano to run a bit more, but he obviously can't with his leg trouble. He has been on the DL twice now...which has never happened before, so without that it might have been a closer number. They are all having amazing Septembers though, and making up for a bunch. I think Lee is hitting something like .380 and Sori and Aram are tearing the cover off the ball, so it was worse before this month.

& who on the team do you feel might be experencing caree years, or atleast producing higher than expectations? You mentioned Lilly, anyone else?

DeRosa is having one, Ward is having one as a pinch hitter, and thats about all I can think of. Did I miss any?

Derrek Lee is above his 60th PECOTA line. I wouldn't call that a down year at all. Exactly the same goes for Ramirez and DeRosa (who's not having a career year by a very strict EqA definition thanks to last year, but quite close).

Sean Marshall probably shouldn't have a 114 ERA+. If anything, the entire Cubs rotation is probably a perfect storm. The good defense helps these numbers, but no injuries and a good 30 IP from Guzman (and a bad 26 IP from Human Rain Delay and Miller) all with above average Runs Against numbers doesn't happen all that often.

WHITESOX, neither Greene nor Kooz cost anything to field and neither have reached their peak years yet. Why replace that with a guy making so much money coming off an off an injury year ~ esp when its going to cost you prospects as well. Kouzmanoff has actually hit much better than Miggy too, and Greene doesn’t hit quite as well but is better in the field. I just don’t really see the fit there I guess…

You think Lee's season is nearly what it was in 2005?? Its not that close...really. SLG may be...but many of the doubles would be home runs. He has 20 HR....and thats adding todays. He has had a good year, like I said.

Aram doesn't even have 30 HR...and AVG. wise he is probably around what I would expect, I have no complaints.

Sori's year isn't CLOSE to what he had last year...so it isn't a "near career year." It just isn't. His year last year was much better.

The Cubs are taking advantage of their schedule, and it has still included beating Harang and Gorz lately...they aren't exactly AAAers...

This is still the team to beat. Do you really doubt that? You can say brewers, thats fine, thats at least credible. But please, please don't come on here and tell me the cards are the team to beat, and they don't have many offseason moves to make...

You haven't said it yet, but I'm just praying you don't.

Phil...remember. I never called it a "down year." I said it was a good year, not a career year. Do you not agree?

Adun,

You set the tone for “Career Year” as being their best year, this being their “second best year” in multiple categories just makes it “near” ~ I guess I could have used “Higher Than Normal and For The Most Part Their Second Best Year in Most Categories” but it gets kinda long ya know…

Yeah, said Lilly’s ERA is around where I could expect within reason, but we also know that he has had some luck getting there too. You seemed to agree. It is a “Career Year” though and ya would expect some regression. Correct?

Yep, said ARam is in a situation where he will probably start getting hurt and what, he missed about 30 with Knee & Wrist problems? Oh, and if you want to go back and find that argument and how it began you’ll find I never “SWORE” Rolen would play more games, just that its just as likely ARam gets hurt and didn’t go along with your claim that he would never have 100G again or whatever number it was.

An Ace who almost everyone thought would start to have injury problems posts a 4.2+ ERA ~ I would be very worried that he is bothered by something.

Hill and Marshall get better? Hill was projected by PECOTA at 4.3 mean with a 4.6 50% line while also being projected to get steadily worse until 2011. Marshall was 4.9 mean / 5.2 50%, and he’s sporting a 4.47 Translated ~ really, there is absolutely no reason to expect him to be anywhere near this next year. Oh and Marshall hasn’t had a healthy season in the last 4 years including shoulder problems the last 3, even further adding to that doubt.

“This is still the team to beat. Do you really doubt that?”
Yep… everyone is pretty close, that’s what I’ve stated and feel. I see a Cubs team which should be expected to regress and that means a bunch of teams lumped together yet again. No one team stands out, no one team is really better than the others… (well Pitt is horrible, but you know what I mean…)

A roster of guys coming off their second best numbers in multiple categories or complete unknowns/belowAVGs as far as production ~ yeah I wouldn’t be confident with that…

Dark...

You can say near career year because they are 2 on some of that...but its just not that accurate. Lee isn't that close to having another 05...not really that close at all. Sori isn't that close to having another 06...not that close at all. You can't say near career year if it wasn't near their career year.

As for Lilly...I don't really see why he can't do this next year. All the stats say with his low OBA and high SO\BB ratio, I don't really see why he couldn't do this again. He is getting lucky in the fact that his record is really good, and he gets pretty good run support, but he is pitching very well. I don't think you can say we should count on regression. If it happens, thats cool, but its not like he is just not going to be good next year.

Phil,

"I guess I just define a down year as below expectations, and I was pointing out that he's actually slightly above the most advanced expectations that we have to work with."

You have to remember, I never said down year, or off year. I said they are having good years, but not career years, thats it. I am very happy with all three of them honestly. I just think they should all be in that 35 to 40ish HR category...but I'm still very happy. I just think that if Sori can hit that many in Washington, he should be feasting on Wrigley.

As far as pitching...I know what you mean. None of them have been hurt, and thats the awesome part about it. Can I expect this next year? Probably not...but I do expect Guzman and Prior to compete, and I honestly expect Marshall and Hill to be better than they were this year. Dark thinks I'm crazy...thats fine. Still, they are both young, especially Marshall, and there is something you have to like about a 6'7" lefty. He is 24...I think he can get better.

“Buy a ring? I didn't know you could buy a ring. The Yanks have out spent everyone from 2001-2006. How many rings do they have in that span?”
… doesn’t mean they are always successful in their goal as in a short series anything can happen. But having a team that isn’t very good who spends a ton to make it a competitor is considered trying to buy-a-ring.

“Somehow the White Sox get lumped in with the middle market franchises even though they're in the third largest market in the country”
...You aint a kiddin!
…They are currently paying 108.6M for their club, that’s good for like 5th… Gotta love it when the “big-spenders” spend their money so poorly though!

“The best way to win in baseball is to draft for a small market team is to draft, rolling the dice on some picks. That is the only way the Pirates will get an elite player on there team. Problem is for a lot of smaller market clubs, is Scott Boras demands double/triple what the slot is to be allotted.”
…kinda true in that the best way for Pitt to get a mega-star would probably be to draft him, problem comes in how long they would be able to keep him if there isn’t money left over to field anyone around him. The other problem is, like you said, that player will cost much more money than he should out of a draft and is still a huge gamble overall.

Best way and quickest way to rebuild a team would seriously be to sign 5 good SPs off the FA market then trade them all at the break for big prospect return. If you spent say a combined average of 60M of 1st year salary on those pitchers you would only be on the hook for like 30M of it and could get a boat-load of top prospects…

here, these were for this thread:

Soriano is currently only -.27 OPS off his career year and +.19 BA. That’s not that far... Plus he is +.21 over his next best OPS in the last 5 years while being +.06 over that BA so a strong case can be made for him being closer to his career than his 3rd best in the last 5. This is also the second highest RC/G he has ever had (6.6 to 7.1 last year)

ARam is currently -.23 OPS off his career year, again not far. This is also the highest RC/G he has ever had (7.5 to 7.2 in that career year)

Lee is of course way off his OPS because of the fluke SLG he had in 05. He is +.22 OPS & +.48 BA over his next best OPS year though. This is the second highest RC/G of his career (05 was nuts, but he’s currently 7.7 to 7.1 in 2003)

“Why shouldn't Marshall get better? He is a 6'7 lefty that doesn't have to throw that hard and he is 24 years old!”
… why ‘should’ Marshall get better? Just because he’s 6’7” and a lefty? His numbers aren’t very good even now and his ERA is heavily influenced by luck. He’s not even 25 yet but has suffered nothing but injuries; he still hasn’t pitched many innings in any year because of it. I don’t see any one thing that would lead me to think he would get better or even be able to duplicate these numbers.

Also think about this, Marshall’s line-against in 8 starts since the start of August has been .328/.371/.562. That’s an atrocious line for 2/5 of his season now ~ that’s like facing Chase Utley in every AB, its mind-boggling really… To give you an idea of how bad that line-against is, well check this out:
.328 / .371 / .562 / .933 ~ Marshall last 2/5 of his season
.261 / .338 / .464 / .802 ~ Anthony Reyes

“The Cardinals, unless they make some major moves, aren't going to be good”
See, you keep saying that but youre blatantly ignoring a few things in doing so:

A) They didn’t have Carp this year and we already crunched numbers to find out that his 3.3 PECOTA would have been atleast +8ish alone.

B) They didn’t know they were going to lose Carp after 6IP so couldnt plan a replacement before hand. Their production out of SP4&SP5 has been miserable, combining that to just SP5 though would have given them a better chance. That’s where knowing Carp would be gone comes in; they would have gotten someone to fill that spot. Going into 08 they know how long he should be out…

C) Nearly every hitter on their team is either having an off-year or injuries or even both. (Exception Molina but his increase and resulting production hasn’t been extreme). Sure, you can say Ankiel, but he’s little more than a Sept call-up and his production over limited time doesn’t make up for everything else.

Now when considering the foresight in the 2008 A/B situation while assuming atleast some hitters will produce even close to their normals minimizing C, you have a team which is looking to be right there in the pact.

Cubs wont get better, Mil could but will lose a couple guys so I’m going to say they are about the same and the Cards would have been dramatically different with even a little bit of luck. Then figure Houston has shown a willingness to spend to upgrade with a team that isn’t as bad as they’ve played this year; they have some very good players on that club. I doubt Cincy will be with the group, but they might be looked at as a darkhorse.

& “By the way Dark...the Cubs have the best record in the NL since June 3rd...”
… what does that mean? Seems pretty random to me… If you said “in the last 30 games while playing mainly elite teams” or something like that then I might go “ok, impressive”

As for the Cardinals...Carp is out all of next year. Do you think they are going to get a big name free agent? Are there any? Maybe Colon or Clement...and those are total question marks. Rolen and Edmonds will be just as bad if not worse...do I need to prove myself right on that again for the 2nd straight year? Molina will regress, as PLH has already stated. They should sell high on him, but they won't. They have crap for SS as it stands...we all know Ankiel isn't this good...Rasmus isn't ready yet, Duncan is having surgery, Mulder has looked horrible for years now...I mean...the cards have work to do....I can't figure out how you think they are as good as anyone in this division, I really can't.

I've seen multiple people talk about the Tigers have an opening at 3rd, but Inge is signed for 3 more years. Is this an implication that he'll move back behind the plate, and if so, what becomes of Pudge?

“This means that after Lou found out what he had, got rid of Caesar and Barrett, they have been the best team in the NL”

Wanna know the ironic part of that statement?
ERA from 5.62 to 4.08 ~ Zambrano
ERA from 3.52 to 3.78 ~ Lilly
ERA from 2.93 to 4.35 ~ Marques
ERA from 2.89 to 4.05 ~ Hill
ERA from 2.25 to 4.00 ~ Marshall
Looks like they started winning inspite of their starters, only Zambrano was better and 3/5 of the rotation was a lot worse…

Plus over that time they went 60-42 but only scored 479 to 417 for a 55-47 Pythagorean ~ ie they were getting “lucky” (as you had put it) in winning 5 of those games…

Do have to wonder if that ERA drop has anything to do with some of the aspects you credit their resurgence on though. Replacing the light hitting - above average fielding Iztruis who was having a slight off year with the nearly-as-bad hitting - well below average fielding Theriot could just be to blame for some of it…

Barrett could also have to do with that quite a bit as well. Infact this probably is the reason…Hill, Marques and Marshall all had dramatically better Lines with Barrett behind the plate instead of the others. Heres how it breaks down individually:
Hill .208/.280/.393 With MB
Hill .262/.327/.408 With everyone else
Marshall .263/.317/.395 With MB
Marshall .276/.333/.456 With everyone else
Marques .224/.300/.320 With MB
Marques .262/.340/.399 With everyone else

Best of all? The team has scored 479 in 102G since then (4.69/G) while scoring 249 in 54 prior (4.61/G) so that hasn’t changed. They had given up 417 in 102G (4.01/G) while allowing 248 in 54 prior (4.59/G) though. Since we know the ERAs went up for the starters it means that it’s the ERA’s of the RP which is the only real statistic difference since that date. So what happened around then in the bullpen? Dempster got hurt and Marmol got called up. That’s the only positive statistical difference in the team really…

Trax is a rental for experience...he is gone after this. Marshall will compete for the 5th starter job...and honestly, he will probably win it unless Guzman or Prior or Gallagher come on very strong.

You took an 8 start sample size that says he is bad. I took a 12 start sample size that says he is good. So mine is 1.5 of yours...and if you take the whole season, he is having a very good one for a 24 year old. I am very happy with it as a whole. Your example consisted of 2 bad starts...thats it. Other than that he was solid as usual.

I get what you are saying about Carp...just don't agree. They need to go out and get somebody for next year. Yes, now they know he is gone...but their rotation will suck without him, even knowing that they are going to be without him.

By the way, Barrett had nothing to do with Marshall...thats coincidence. And no, they weren't good friends.

You pull out all these random stats, but I'm not really sure how it proves the Cubs aren't still going to be the team to beat. They have been the best team in the NL for the last 4 months...and you still don't think they are any better than the Cardinals....I just don't get the logic here.

“I get what you are saying about Carp...just don't agree”

…how can you not agree that they thought he would be healthy and he got hurt in his first game creating a need for a whole new starter to be found after the season started? His injury put the team in a horrible position, where they expected to have both of their best starters within a short amount of time of the season starting, they then had neither and had even worse news shortly after with the Mulder updates. “SP5 who was supposed to be Reyes unless he sucks” turned into “well Reyes has to pitch whether he sucks or not and now we need to have yet another spot under the same circumstances”. That’s two rotation spots they were flat out stuck with trying to find guys for or put up with bad production. Just really don’t see how that doesn’t make sense as a problem…

"By the way, Barrett had nothing to do with Marshall...thats coincidence. And no, they weren't good friends"

...extremely strange coincidence, you have to admit...

"Thats because we would have a staff full of cy young contenders....no one would keep that up, its regressing to the mean. I know you know all about that"

…yeah, do know all about that ~ but its still just so strange. You will see unusual splits from time to time, but sometimes its just a bit much. I mean why, was everyone so amazing then so bad to get back to that mean ~ most guys just go through a year atleast semi steady… 3 guys on that rollercoaster? Shoot, its even four if you count Zambrano…

“You took an 8 start sample size that says he is bad. I took a 12 start sample size that says he is good. So mine is 1.5 of yours...and if you take the whole season, he is having a very good one for a 24 year old”

…the topic was “should he be expected to be better in 08”. Well, pitching way over his head then hitting a wall and being horrible after the mid-way point is not a good sign for “will be better”. I took his second half numbers to show the horrible crash after only like 70IP… Add it to bad projections and history of bad injuries… Like I keep saying, there is just nothing that says he should improve.

Dude, its not 2 bad games…

Since his half-way point:
Aug 2 ~ 2.2IP, 9H, 1BB, 7R, 7ER, 2SO
Aug 7 ~ 5.1IP, 7H, 0BB, 5R, 5ER, 2SO
Aug12 ~ 5.0IP, 6H, 2BB, 3R, 3ER, 1SO
Aug 31 ~ 3.2IP, 5H, 4BB, 4R, 1ER, 3SO
Sept 15 ~ 2.2IP, 6H, 2BB, 4R, 2ER, 3SO
5 starts, 19.3IP, 33H, 9BB, 23R, 18ER, 11SO

…Where he did have a couple ok starts and a great one, this is still very discouraging… Why so many hits all of a sudden? Why so many BB all of a sudden? He reached his half-way mark and implodes… Its not 2 games; its nearly every game. He only lasted 6.1 innings in his last two starts combined while giving up 11H & 6BB ~ that doesn’t worry you?

“Zambrano actually got WORLDS better when barrett left...I don't really get what you are saying adding him to that mix”

…I had actually said this:
*“most guys just go through a year atleast semi steady… 3 guys on that rollercoaster? Shoot, its even four if you count Zambrano…“*
So are you saying Zambrano hast had a “rollercoaster” season?

“What I don't agree with you about Carp is that somehow them knowing they will be without him will make them that much better this coming year. They might get somebody, but he isn't going to be that great, because they won't increase payroll.”

…So knowing you need a starter doesn’t mean you can get a starter? They don’t need to get someone “as good as Carpenter” to improve over what they had and who’s to say they don’t get someone better anyway? Who’s to say they even need to spend a lot of money to get someone better ~ trades are possible right? Who’s to say they don’t just spend the money to get someone similar in production? Just because you feel they won’t spend money you automatically write it off as they won’t do anything? I know you don’t like them, but come on…

Yep, that’s what a whole lotta good luck (Cubs) or a whole lotta bad luck (Cards) will get ya.

But the funny thing is the Cards rotation was projected to be better than the Cubs rotation; you do realize that right? Check out the “Needs & Luxuries” thread for the specifics…

So stop saying anything about luck, its baseball! It wasn't luck that the two SP signings in the offseason were busts...THAT ISN'T LUCK! Its bad evaluation of talent, bottom line.

The cubs evaluated talent very well, and in return got the 2nd best rotation in the NL with the Ace having a down year. And you are going to say its all luck? Come on dude...Luck doesn't happen when you have a season long sample size.

Hendry just blew Walt away for once this offseason, its as simple as that. Doesn't happen often, but it did this year. And I'm talking about pitching, not all that money that they used on the offense.

So again, for the Cards its not bad luck, its bad signings. For the Cubs its not good luck, its good signings and staying healthy....sorry to burst that bubble.

"…I don’t see a “bad signing”, I see signings that haven’t produced what they should have produced. That’s luck…"

Then you are blind.

Its not luck that they stayed healthy. If anything, its bad "luck" that the Cards didn't.

No one said that they should have foreseen Carp getting injured for the whole year, but he is no stranger to the DL...and what happened the year before he came to the cards?? Oh yeah, you left that out.

The Wells signing was as bad as you can get. Not only is 4 mil pathetic to spend on Wells....you can spend nothing and get replacement level. But its not a bad signing to spend 4 mil to get worse than nothing....come on dude, your analysis of this signing is an absolute joke.

The Mulder signing might be even worse than the Wells signing, if thats even possible. He has shown nothing but being bad for 2 years, and he is coming off 2 surgeries. They paid him 13 mil over 2 years to be of negative value when they needed him the most this year, and all signs point to him being bad next year.

Lets just take a look at PECOTAs projections for these two teams in the offseason. The fact remains these are HORRENDOUS signings, no matter what you think of them. Results back me up...your theories are your only backing. I think the results win out....

The basicly same thing is posted in this thread too? Ok, well here is what I posted in the other, please choose just one to reply to if you must reply…

“By the way, the Cards were projected to finish the season in 3rd place WITH CARP HEALTHY!!! Not to mention with Rolen, Molina, Eck, Jimmy, and the rest of them healthy. Hate to break it to you, but if you want to use projections, they still lose”

Where did you get that from? Heres what I see:
PECOTA:
Kevin Goldstein: Mil, Chi, Hou, Stl
Joe Sheehan: Chi, Stl, Mil, Hou
Dan Fox: Chi, Stl, Mil, Cin
Marc Normandin: Mil, Stl, Chi, Cin
Jay Jaffe: Stl, Mil, Chi, Cin
John Perrotto: Hou, Stl, Pitt, Chi
Nate Silver: Chi, Mil, Stl, Hou
Ben Murphy: Mil, Chi, Hou, Stl
Will Carroll: Mil, Chi, Stl, Cin
Alex Carnevale: Chi, Stl, Mil, Hou
Brad Wochomurka: Mil, Chi, Stl, Cin
Keith Woolner: Stl, Mil, Hou, Chi
Derek Jacques: Stl, Chi, Mil, Hou
So, we have:
Chi 4 First, 5 Second, 2 Third, 2 Forth
StL 3 First, 5 Second, 3 Third, 2 Forth
Mil 5 First, 3 Second, 4 Third, 0 Forth
Seems pretty close to me.

They also gave standings odds based on these for the teams:
Team Average
Chicago Cubs 2.15
Milwaukee Brewers 2.2
St. Louis Cardinals 2.3
Houston Astros 4.0
Cincinnati Reds 4.8
Pittsburgh Pirates 5.4
Yep, 3 teams within .15 of eachother says its pretty much a draw on the predictions with the combined being that each of the three teams should realistically finish Second by the ever so slightest of margins… So where technically you are kind of correct, its like saying “I can beat you in a 4 mile race” and winning it by like 2 seconds ~ although you do actually win the race its so close that the outcome would flip-flop constantly when it was run over and over again. The only thing that matters is that PECOTA actually predicted that the Cards, Cubs and Brewers would finish 1-3 in no real particular order in 07. This was their comment on the Central “BP likes the Mets to take the NL East again, and sees a three-team horse race in the Central.”

But who cares, I realize deep down you knew that was a Homer statement when you said it, you realistically couldn’t have really believed it…

But that’s also kind of the point I guess too. See I don’t understand how you can insist that the Cards had no shot this year and how they are just such a bad team when there is nothing that points to it other than being 10G behind in a season where everything that could possibly go wrong, did. It’s like you arguing “Red is a better color than Blue” because you like Red and trying to prove it by saying something like “well Red was chosen as the color for stop-signs”. We know that Red isn’t better than Blue, they would have to be considered equal (if such things could be argued) ~ but when the Cards are considered at least equal using stat after stat after stat you still reply with something comparable to “no Reds obviously better, it was picked for the color of stop-signs”

I’m not even getting into the other stuff though because it’s all argued in that manor. Everything you have said pretty much boils down to your saying “I don’t like Wells”, “I don’t like Mulder”, “I don’t like Rolen” or whatever; but like I’ve said in countless other posts with you previously, you haven’t really given a single stat or fact to back up these claims which are blatantly made off your feelings or prejudice. I asked if your biased because, well you pretty are ~ or atleast something is going on there for you to try and discredit or just ignore every stat youre being presented. Even the statements you make like “Hate to break it to you, but if you want to use projections, they still lose” are just blatantly wrong or extremely debatable, yet you still insist it’s like this absolute truth or something. How about you just give up the inferiority mind-set, biases, or whatever and just admit this team is just as good as your Cubs if they have anything resembling normal production…

You take an entire post, pick out one single sentence, skew it way beyond reality and logic, and then act as though it means anything? Lets see, they picked 3 teams to be dead even and you’re bragging as if the Cubs were picked first? I really cant even begin to comprehend how you come up with this stuff, whatever…