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A-Rod Through 2019?
Could Alex Rodriguez's next contract be a twelve-year pact, running through 2019? Scott Boras won't deny it, as he's talking about taking his superstar through the end of his career. A 12-year, $380MM deal doesn't seem out of the question. Has a baseball player ever signed for more than a decade?
Of course, Boras is a master negotiator. So over the coming weeks, he'll probably casually talk about A-Rod as a $35-40MM player getting 13 years. Unless some team loses its mind entirely, he should settle at 10-11 years and the low $30MM range annually.
Even teams flush with free cash are going to have to wonder whether they should aim for two $15-16MM players instead. Doesn't it make sense to spread the risk a little bit? You might be able to get a 10 win gain in '08 from Curt Schilling and Torii Hunter, at a much smaller total commitment.
What if an aging A-Rod settles in as a 6-8 win player, as he was in 2004 and 2006? What if he has to move to first base halfway through the deal? What if he misses one entire season due to injury? What if he's connected to steroids? Any team entertaining the landmark contract has to consider all of these things.
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One player is not worth $30 million per year. The question is who has the ability to overpay, and for how long? I could see 4-5 years at 30 million, you could endure the financial pain and infinitely less risk than 10 years. A 10-year deal is rediculous, but if that's what he wants maybe he gets a re-deux of his 10 years/$252 mil. More importantly, can he still play shortstop? Or can he play RF? You could get a stud pitcher and Torii Hunter for the 30 mil.
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | October 12, 2007 at 09:31 AM
As far as making your team better, sure Hunter and Schilling together would probably be the smarter play. However; obviously, those two together aren't nearly as marketable as A-Rod in a big market. He'd bring more revenue than almost any two players combined because of his popularity.
Posted by: Teetz | October 12, 2007 at 09:34 AM
"One player is not worth $30 million per year."
What if that player brings in more than 30 mil to the franchise? It'll partially be a Beckham-like signing in that he's not only getting paid for his skills on the field.
Posted by: Teetz | October 12, 2007 at 09:36 AM
As for brining in more than his $30 million salary(From a Cubs perspective)Sammy Sosa undoubtedly brought in more than his $18 million salary, but only for the first 2 years of that deal, '02,'03, maybe still in '04 then they had to cut their losses. How much bigger would A-Rod be than Sammy in his hey-day? And the Cubs are already sold out. I understand it would make a bigger impact in a non-Wrigley, non-saturated market, but who not in a major market would have the money?
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | October 12, 2007 at 09:44 AM
I think Sammy is an interesting comparison because he was an icon that carried the Cubs' revenue almost single-handedly for six seasons: '98 to '03, at salaries of $10 mil for the 1st 4, $18 mil for seasons 5 & 6. By the end of season 7 they had to eat his salary and dump him off on the Orioles. He was 29 years old during the '98 season.
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | October 12, 2007 at 09:50 AM
You know I'm getting f*cking sick of hearing how much Arod is going to make. It's not all Scott Boras' fault, its all under Arods guise...what f*cking greedy bastards. Put that money to charity you assholes.
Posted by: Guitar Hero | October 12, 2007 at 09:58 AM
I believe Todd Helton's deal was for 11 or 12 years.
Posted by: gogopalehose | October 12, 2007 at 10:13 AM
Helton's deal was for 9 yrs with a 23 mil option for '11. Helton's been good but is he worth 16 mil until '10?
Same thing with A-Rod. If he were 25, maybe I'd consider a 10 yr deal. But now, he's 32
and the max I'd give is 5 yrs. No way in Yr 8 of a 10 yr deal when he's 40 will he be worth 30+ mil. Besides, how much more $$ does A-Rod need?
Posted by: allsox | October 12, 2007 at 10:28 AM
Boreass is just forcing more money out of Yankees. If Arod opts out, Yanks will lose 7 mil per year that the Rangers are paying. I hope the Yankees tell him to shove it if he opts out!
Posted by: Cubs World Champs please B4 I die | October 12, 2007 at 10:39 AM
F Boras!!
F Arod!!!
You could land any combination of:
Torii Hunter
Kosuke Fukudome
Mike Lowell
Curt Schilling
Aaron Rowand
Andruw Jones
For that money. As a Giants fan, I can tell you...1 player does not make a TEAM or guarantee wins!!!
Posted by: zito4cyyoung | October 12, 2007 at 10:54 AM
The Yankees should give him a deal that continues his current deal until it expires and then pays him a hefty raise to make up for "underpaying him" If he opts out they lose 7 mil and year for the next 3 years, so it makes sense to keep the best player in baseball and then add 5 mil a year to four more years after this contract. That way A-Rod gets payed 30 mil for four years, 26 for the next 3 and them 26 for a couple seasons after that. It's not quite as much as A-Rod is asking for, but it makes sense from the Yankees standpoint.
Now, if A-Rod really wants to move back to SS, thats a completely different story.
Posted by: greenbaydude1232 | October 12, 2007 at 10:55 AM
Sorry, I know that was confusing...here's what im proposing...
2008-2010: 27 mil/year (his current contract)
2011-2014: 32 mil/year
2015-2020: 30 mil/year
The Yankees essentially continue A-Rod at the current contract for the 2011-2014 seasons because the would love 21 mil over the next 3 seasons if he opts out anyway.
Posted by: greenbaydude1232 | October 12, 2007 at 11:00 AM
that should say..."they would lose" not "the would love"
Posted by: greenbaydude1232 | October 12, 2007 at 11:01 AM
This is just silly. A-Rod won't get that much money.
Hicks was bidding against himself when he did that deal. A mistake shrewd teams won't make again.
History tells us that there are exactly 2 people who have signed long-term deals that were in excess of $20m/season. One was A-Rod. How did that turn out for the Rangers? How much more revenue did they make off of him? The second is the Red Sox and Manny. Again, how happy have the Sox been? They tried to get someone to claim the guy on waivers just to be rid of his contract.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 12, 2007 at 11:55 AM
Have any of you checked out A-Rod's MORP over at BP? He hit his 90th percentile this season, so I imagine it would increase, but MORP puts A-Rod at just under $71M over the next four years, with a pretty steady decline. Even if he levels off after 2011, that puts his salary from 2008-2019 at about $186M.
Posted by: scatterbrian | October 12, 2007 at 12:13 PM
Below is a list of guys that made more than $14m this year and are more than 2 years into their deal. Think any of the teams regret their original signing?
Giambi - would be dropped in a heart beat if they could.
Rodriguez - already traded once.
Jeter - anyone other than the Yankees wouldn't be happy with their ROI.
Ramirez - placed on waivers multiple times hoping someone would claim him.
Helton - would love to dump his salary.
Colon - one good year doesn't make up for 3 bad/injury filled ones.
Sexson - should be dropped.
Abreu - contract was moved to the Yanks.
Thome - contract moved to the White Sox.
Berkman - consistent slugger - Astros seem happy with him.
Delgado - Marlins moved him after the 1st year.
Guerrero - good signing so far.
Hampton - 3 teams are paying off his horrible contract.
Martinez - 27 wins so far over the 1st 3 years.
The moral of the story is that long-term/high dollar contracts have a tendency to NEVER work out. Sure you might get lucky with a Berkman or Guerrero. But for everyone of those deals you have about 5 more that resemble Giambi and Hampton. And while these super-stars are most likely going to give you some great performance over the life of their contract, when taken as a whole, the deals just don't make sense.
My Angels need hitting in the worst way but I would be furious to see any A-Rod deal signed that was longer than 5 years with a higher avg salary than $25m.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 12, 2007 at 12:13 PM
What people seem to be ignoring here is that, in 10 years' time, $30M will be equivalent to about $15-20M today if MLB salaries continue to inflate the way they have been over the past few years. And note that this is a sign that MLB is strong, that revenues are increasing. If you want corroborating evidence of this, just look at attendance figures, and note that a lot of teams have been setting annual attendance records lately.
So my point is, think of this as a deal for like $20M next year, $22 the year after that, etc., up to $40M as the contract is twilighting. Or maybe not backloaded that strongly (say, $25M this year + 1 added on each year afterwards). Then by 2018, you're paying $35M, but by that time, the "small market" clubs have salaries well over $100M and the Yanks and Saux are touching $300M and beyond. ~10-15% of your team's total payroll isn't nearly as absurd as the ~20-25% that 30M sounds like today.
If you want evidence of this, just look at the last deal he signed. At the time, $25M was HUGE and everyone said he was over-paid. But now, ARod is opting out of the deal because he's worth MORE than $25M; Most teams in MLB would LOVE to have him for that price.
So anyhow, I think he's going to get his $300M, and I don't think it's going to be nearly as bad of a deal as everyone here seems to think it's going to be. It'll be backloaded, and barring some major injury (and let's face it, ARod has been one of the most durable players around over the course of his career), it'll be worth it.
Posted by: mraver | October 12, 2007 at 12:20 PM
I have to say, I think this whole "marketing" angle is a load of bull. When I buy Yankee tickets or I watch the Yanks on YES, it's never because I think for a second "I wonder what Arod is going to do tonight!". I watch and root for the Yankees. I've rooted for players I've hated before (Damon) who have become Yankees, so this whole marketing angle rings a little hollow to me.
Maybe I'm too much of a fan, but seriously, how many casual fans are there that sit around and say "let's take a trip to NY to see Arod play"? Correct me if my impression is wrong.
That said, I love Arod on the Yankees, but if he leaves he's stupid. All the money in the world isn't going to make things right for him. He's got a chance with the Yankees to build a new dynasty with all the young stud pitching that is there and is coming. The Yankees will be in the World Series again soon with this crop of pitching and Arod should be astute enough to know that.
I hope he stays, but if he goes for the last dollar and takes him to another city I won't cry about it. The Yankees will be fine because of the pitching that is coming. That's what wins series in the post season. I just watched Wang pretty much lose a series all by himself. Pitching is where it's at.
Posted by: Dicky LaRue | October 12, 2007 at 01:11 PM
"The Yankees will be fine because of the pitching that is coming. That's what wins series in the post season."
I'm pretty sure Boston has a guy that is just as good as any you have....and you can't get to the series without going through them. They also have a guy Named Beckett, that will probably be there for a long time. Just my 2 cents...and no, I'm NOT a redsox fan.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 12, 2007 at 01:15 PM
A-Rod has as much as a chance to build a new dynasty with the Angels as he does with the Yanks. Their young pitching is more established than the Yanks is plus they have a great prospect in Adenhart coming up soon. If the Angels add A-Rod's bat to go along with Guerrero's at a time which coincides with the development of good young hitters like Willits, Kendrick and Kotchman, then their O will be deadly over the long-term as well. They might end up as complete a team as BOS.
Not to mention they play in the AL's weakest division and have an owner who loves to make a splash. I bet Moreno gives Stoneman a kick in the pants to get him to be more active in the offseason.
As a Ranger fan, I think if LAA adds A-Rod, they'll have the divison locked up for the length of A-Rod's contrct.
Posted by: rangerchick | October 12, 2007 at 02:05 PM
mrraver - you are correct about inflation. Prices today will definitely go up tomorrow and the next day and the next day ...
That being said, I specifically chose to look at players that were at least 3 years into their deal. That would allow for inflation from when they first signed. Look at that list and tell me who gets there current salary if they hit the FA market seeking a 305 year deal?
I can see Rodriguez, Ramirez, Berkman and Guerrero as being the only guys that are still worth their salaries.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 12, 2007 at 02:07 PM
Wouldn't it be nice to see more heavily loaded performance contracts? How about a deal that pays A-Rod a base of $20m/year with the ability to hit $30-35m with incentives. Contract would renew each year as long as certain milestones were met. Renewal options could have clauses for reasonable injuries.
How about tying A-Rod's contract into overall franchise economic growth. If Boras thinks that A-Rod brings so much money to the organization let him put his money where his mouth is.
I actually don't have any problems paying a guy $30m as long as the production somewhat mirrors his compensation. Paying guaranteed money on 7-10 contracts is crazy.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 12, 2007 at 02:13 PM
bjsguess.. players love guaranteed contracts. A-Rod knows he can receive $30M+ per in guaranteed money, and he likely will.
However, I do see your point as a 10 year contract is very risky. That being said, the owner whom signs Alex Rodriguez decided to take that risk.
Posted by: ghettodog | October 13, 2007 at 11:46 PM