Could Alex Rodriguez's next contract be a twelve-year pact, running through 2019? Scott Boras won't deny it, as he's talking about taking his superstar through the end of his career. A 12-year, $380MM deal doesn't seem out of the question. Has a baseball player ever signed for more than a decade?
Of course, Boras is a master negotiator. So over the coming weeks, he'll probably casually talk about A-Rod as a $35-40MM player getting 13 years. Unless some team loses its mind entirely, he should settle at 10-11 years and the low $30MM range annually.
Even teams flush with free cash are going to have to wonder whether they should aim for two $15-16MM players instead. Doesn't it make sense to spread the risk a little bit? You might be able to get a 10 win gain in '08 from Curt Schilling and Torii Hunter, at a much smaller total commitment.
What if an aging A-Rod settles in as a 6-8 win player, as he was in 2004 and 2006? What if he has to move to first base halfway through the deal? What if he misses one entire season due to injury? What if he's connected to steroids? Any team entertaining the landmark contract has to consider all of these things.
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