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More On Free Agent Draft Pick Compensation

I've always felt that my knowledge of Type A/B free agents and the accompanying draft pick compensation was lacking.  I'll try to do a better job this year keeping up with the vagaries of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

I was reminded today that the first 15 picks in 2008's draft are protected.  That means those 15 teams can sign Type A free agents (pretty much the best ones) and at worst only lose their second-round pick.  Here are the first 15 teams drafting in '08:

1. Devil Rays
2. Pirates
3. Royals
4. Orioles
5. Giants
6. Marlins
7. Reds
8. White Sox
9. Nationals
10. Astros
11. Rangers
12. Athletics
13. Cardinals
14. Twins
15. Dodgers

That should make Dodgers fans feel much better about their season.  They could've easily missed the cutoff and the playoffs.  The Rangers can chase Torii Hunter, the White Sox can chase Aaron Rowand, and the Nats can go after Andruw Jones without risking their picks. 

On the flip side, these clubs are in jeopardy of losing these picks if they sign Type A guys:

16. Brewers
17. Blue Jays
18. Braves
19. Cubs
20. Mariners
21. Tigers
22. Mets
23. Padres
24. Phillies
25. Rockies
26. Diamondbacks
27. Angels
28. Yankees
29. Indians
30. Red Sox

So there's an added disadvantage for the Phillies to sign Mike Lowell.  Maybe the Braves think twice about Mike Cameron.  And this will definitely be a consideration before any of these clubs splurge on Scott Linebrink

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It wouldnt even be worth it to sign Linebrink if it forces you to give up that pick.

Isn't that only for a certain time period? So for example, if they sign a Type A free agent before 1/1/2008 they surrender a draft pick, if they wait til after 1/1/2008 then they don't lose a draft pick.

I'm so glad the Twins won't lose the 1st round pick this year when the once again go after the top notch talent.

i hope now that frank win will not be willing to trade a first round pick for mike cameron, but what sucks even more is that the braves may now not be able to get draft picks in return for andruw

Even getting a top draft pick would not be worth signing Scott Linebrink, he's not all that good and is well on his way to being very bad.

Is Tom Glavine going to be a Type A? I would imagine so based on his overall performance over the last three seasons, but he might be right near the cutoff.

This could effect the Braves willingness to sign him. Do they really want to send their first round pick over to the Mets considering how decimated their farm system is after the midseason trades? Also, would Glavine be ranked ahead of Mike Cameron; or vice versa?

I would really like to see the Mets do their best to make sure they get a first round pick this season. Their farm is so top heavy. They need to fill out the lower ends and the lack of a first round pick last offseason is part of the reason why. Its probably possible assuming Glavine goes to the Braves. They really don't have much need for any of the big FA names. They'd probably be better served filling their needs with trades considering whose out there anyway, although they do have plenty of money to spend should they so choose.

MEddler, I THINK that if we sign Glavine after Dec 2, and if the Mets don't offer him arbitration, there is no compensation. (The Mets still might get a supplemental pick, but that doesn't really come from us; it's just added to the draft).

I would HOPE that if Glavine's options are retirement or Atlanta, we could hold off til after Dec 2 to sign him.

Then, the risk would be that the Mets offer arbitration, assuming he'd turn it down. Of course, that's how we got burned with Maddux and ended up having to trade Millwood.

The Mets can't offer Glavine arbitration. He only had a player option for $13MM, which he turned down. He's a complete free agent.

Guys that are arbitration eligible are one's who are in their 4th through 7th seasons. I believe that makes it forever and a day ago since Glavine was eligible :)

Arbitration can be offered to any free agent so they can still offer him arbitration. It's a different type of arbitration than the ones offered to young players.

I should say, any of their own free agents

Kyle, I don't pretend to be an expert on this stuff. I know there's a lot of talk in Atlanta as to whether the Braves should offer A Jones arbitration (don't think they will), and I know the Braves offered Maddux arbi in '02 when he was a 14 or so year vet, so I'm a little suspect of your "4th through 7th season" advice...

But I don't know how Glavine's "opting out" affects things.

If Glavine already turned down $13 million, even with the $3 million buyout (which I assume would still have to be paid if Glavine accepted arbitration from the Mets), they'd have little to lose by offering him arbitration.

However, I won't pretend to understand this situation whatsoever. I'm more curious about how it works than anything, and Glavine seems like an interesting example.

I would think the Reds would give Linebrink a shot. They need bullpen help and if they are stupid enough to sign Dusty, they are stupid enough to sign Linebrink. Enjoy your Baker Reds!

I thought the Marlins would have a higher pick than that.

hmm...my bad. I thought wrong.

I'm actually doing a 3 part series on the free agent compensation over on my dopey little site. I posted the first part last night actually. (BooSanta[dot]com)

You are right on in your assessment of the Top 15 picks being protected if those teams chose to sign Type A free agents.

Due to this,I pray that Rowand choses to go somewhere other than the White Sox. The Phils could use another first round pick to bolster our minor league. Heck, maybe we take a college reliever to give us help down the stretch in '08 instead of looking for one via trade.

Many people disregard free agent compensation when thinking about the offseason, but I believe it has a great influence on personnel decisions by general managers.

Do you go after a big name, Type A free agent and risk your pick next year? Or do you trade for a similar player in order to keep your picks?

Interesting discussion...I'm going to have some more on this soon, maybe even take a stab at figuring out who's a Type A and who's not.

Here is a link to last years Type A and Type B free agents. NOTE - last Type A was the top 30% (now 20%) of players and Type B was 30-50% (20-40%). http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=146264

It's interesting to see how FA's are ranked. They are ranked against all MLB players whether or not they are FA's or not. They are grouped into different positional categories (2B,SS,3B is one, 1B,DH,OF is another, C is another, SP is one and RP is the last). They take a statistical analysis of the players last 2 seasons and I'm not sure if defense is even a factor. I tried to find the formula once, but gave up. I did find the CBA (page 73 talks FA comp) at http://www.bizofbaseball.com/images/docs/2007_2011_cba.pdf

There is a lot of confusing stuff on this subject, but it definitely add a unique wrinkle to Free Agency.

Nice. Everything you said here is correct, and also they do throw in some kinda lame fielding stats for some of the positions. Check out the new post:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/10/stats-used-for-.html

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