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Needs and Luxuries: Baltimore Orioles
Here's a look at Baltimore's current setup for 2008.
C - Ramon Hernandez
1B - Kevin Millar
2B - Brian Roberts
SS - Miguel Tejada
3B - Melvin Mora
LF - Jay Gibbons
CF - Jay Payton
RF - Nick Markakis
DH - Aubrey Huff
SP - Erik Bedard
SP - Jeremy Guthrie
SP - Daniel Cabrera
SP - Adam Loewen
SP - Brian Burres/Garrett Olson/Hayden Penn
Setup/Closer: Jamie Walker/Chad Bradford
Needs
Take a look at that starting lineup again. The Orioles are a train wreck, and need to be blown to smithereens and rebuilt. Their need is pretty easy to assess - they need cheap, young, talented players. Sure, all teams need those, but the O's need to abandon any pretense of winning in 2008.
The '07 Orioles were below average in every regard. The long-term Orioles need corner infielders, a left fielder, and a center fielder at minimum. If you don't think they can win in by 2009, then they need middle infielders too.
The O's need another reliable starter to complement the Bedard-Guthrie tandem. They need to be patient with Cabrera, who at least set a career high in innings and starts. They need some homegrown or otherwise cheap relievers with a pulse.
Most of all, the Orioles need fiscal responsibility. Hopefully Andy MacPhail will bring it.
Luxuries
The Orioles have frontline talent in Tejada, Bedard, Roberts, Markakis, and Matt Wieters. The last two are cornerstones.
Tejada is not a part of the long-term future. Despite signs of decline, he can still be dealt for a nice bevy of young players. Maybe not a Teixeira-sized bounty, but two quality players. The Tigers, Phillies, Red Sox, White Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, and half of the NL Central ought to be interested. Tejada is the team's most tradeable asset and he absolutely must be cashed in this winter.
The O's are at a crossroads with Bedard and Roberts. They're locked in through 2009, and would have a lot of value on the trade market. The Orioles have to at least listen on these guys. Bedard is going to cost a king's ransom to sign long-term, and Roberts may prefer to leave for a winner.
Then there's the veteran riff-raff. The Orioles have tons of expendable veterans with moderate to questionable trade value: Hernandez, Millar, Mora, Gibbons, Payton, Huff, Walker, and Bradford. Gibbons and Mora are un-tradeable, but the rest should be swapped out for the most interesting 0-3 players available. The Orioles must remain open to eating salary if they can in effect purchase some quality prospects.
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Why would the Red Sox be in on Tejada? They already have a bloated contract at SS. I suppose they could try Tejada at 3B, but he said that he didn't want to change positions. And considering his .344 career OBP, I can't see the Sox replacing Lowell with him, when Lowell has an identical career OBP, is a fan favorite coming off his best season, and would probably sign for about $2m/year less.
It looks like the Orioles had their highest payroll ever last year at about $93 million - pretty high for such a terrible team. Those veteran contracts were awful, and they signed a ton of them. Are they going to have a similar payroll next year? Can they afford to eat some salary to unload a couple of contracts and acquire prospects?
Posted by: metafrantic | October 24, 2007 at 01:13 PM
What a mess here. They used to be one of the higher revenue teams but lately the product has been so bad that attendance has suffered. I would like to see them trade Tejada and Hernandez in what is shaping up to be a lousy market for SS/C. Otherwise mostly stand pat and let all the bad contracts run out. Maybe see what's out there for Roberts/Bedard since it's hard to see them contend even in 09. It's a shame really, those two guys can really play.
Posted by: zs190 | October 24, 2007 at 01:46 PM
I don't think they can afford not to eat some salary. A lot of that salary is guaranteed for next season, and no one is going to take their overpaid players unless the O's agree to pay some of the salary.
If they are going to be fighting it out with the Rays for last place, they may as well be doing it with young players, IMO.
Posted by: wihargo | October 24, 2007 at 01:52 PM
Good evaluation of the situation of the team. The O's are at a point where the money is coming in but they have a ton of bad contracts to pay off. I have no problem seeing them eat salaries for the next 2 years if that means they trim some of the fat off the team and acquire some prospects.
Tejada should be gone this winter, and Bedard might follow soon thereafter. Roberts probably won't get dealt.
This team has lots of young arms in the minors, no #1 type pitchers, but a bunch of guys with starter potential that will fill in the rotation/bullpen and hopefully become valuable in trades over the next couple of years. The position prospects are harder to find, and are generally at lower levels, but help is coming in the form of Wieters, Reimold, Rowell, and Snyder.
The point is, if this team plays their cards right, they could be in contention by 2009-10.
Posted by: kgosfan | October 24, 2007 at 02:23 PM
I don't see it happening in their division in the next 3 years....I just don't. They need to trade Tejada two years ago and they don't really have much except the two players named. I agree, go young and eat some contracts to stock up the farm. They aren't close at all in the AL east.
Posted by: Aduncaroo | October 24, 2007 at 02:33 PM
Just throwing this out there...
what kind of package would it take for the mets to make a blockbuster deal and acquire bedard/roberts?
Posted by: EndyChavezActionHero | October 24, 2007 at 03:13 PM
i meaan bedard and roberts..
Posted by: EndyChavezActionHero | October 24, 2007 at 03:14 PM
"what kind of package would it take for the mets to make a blockbuster deal and acquire bedard/roberts? "
Their farm system.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | October 24, 2007 at 03:28 PM
Reallyyy? The WHOLE farm system? Are that may players allowed to be included in one deal?
Posted by: EndyChavezActionHero | October 24, 2007 at 03:37 PM
We'll start with Reyes...
Posted by: kgosfan | October 24, 2007 at 03:39 PM
Yeah two years of a guy who was arguably the best pitcher in baseball won't come cheap.
Posted by: chodson28 | October 24, 2007 at 03:55 PM
If the Mets want Bedard, the O's would probably want to include R. Hernandez - and Angelos loves Brian Roberts, so he's not going anywhere. I could see something like a Gomez/Gotay/Pelfrey package for the 2 of them, if the Mets eat most of the salaries.
Posted by: LuckoftheAmish | October 24, 2007 at 05:35 PM
Orioles would be much better off selling their expensive vets for close to major league talent and taking that money and using it to sign Bedard.
He will cost a fortune but he will be worth it.
If you can't resign him then make the trade. Go with Guthrie and a bunch of prospects. See how it plays out for 2 years. Save your money and make a big splash as your team becomes more competitive.
Posted by: bjsguess | October 24, 2007 at 06:52 PM
Needs:
A new owner.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | October 24, 2007 at 07:04 PM
This team is a joke. I say trade Tejada to the Angels for either Brandon Wood or Erick Aybar, along with Joe Saunders and another mid-level prospect. If the Orioles made Bedard avaliable they would get a huge bounty. Every team would want a starter like him. You could get Kemp, LaRoche, and Hu, or Kotchman, Adenhart and maybe Aybar, or Gomez, Pelfrey, and like Humber would be needed. I would even like to see the Devil Rays get into a Bedard sweepstakes with a deal surrounding around Crawford. With Bedard, Kazmir, and Shields, they would have a huge top 3
Posted by: scribbletone | October 24, 2007 at 08:36 PM
I think the DOdgers wold make a great trade partner with Baltimore. I don't think the Dodgers would part with Kemp, but a handful of other players could be made available to the Orioles for Tejada: Andre Ethier, Chin Lung Hu, Andy LaRoche, Delwyn Young Jonathan Meloan, Justin Orenduff.
Baltimore's biggest problem is always their owner and competing with the Yanks and Sox. The Rockies and Diamondbacks should be models for the Orioles. They should go young and cheap, and base the team on good pitching and defense.
Posted by: jskohl | October 24, 2007 at 10:19 PM
agreed, the orioles game plan should be to play for 3-4 years down the line when the red sox and yankees key players are past their primes. tho in recent years both the sox and yanks have schooled tehm when it came to the draft, so, it may be too late for the orioles for a while, unless they make all the right moves trading the talent they have now. i dont see it happening tho.
Posted by: anthoneytheghost | October 24, 2007 at 10:28 PM
Does anyone really think the O's can pull off a true fire-sale/mass rebuilding process? Two little words keep me from thinking this is possible: Peter Angelos. The man is a meddler, a moron, and a dozen other things not fit for this site (and I'm not even an Orioles fan). If anyone thinks he'll stay out of it and let MacPhail do what needs to be done, then you haven't been paying attention to the last 10 years.
At least when the Pirates blow up their team this offseason, their owner won't meddle, because it'll just mean he's getting more salary off the books so he can keep pocketing all that revenue-sharing money.
Posted by: CJax33 | October 24, 2007 at 10:48 PM
lol. so true about the pirates unfortunately. theyre going to be horrible next year, i just hope they are horrible for a good reason, trading guys who have no value on a team like that i.e. xavier nady, jack wilson, jose bautista, etc. (id say matt morris but theres no chance anyone takes him, wtf was that trade about?) i hope the offer for bay is as plentiful as it should be, and if it isnt, i hope they have the foresight to wait and not just dump him off. i hope they do the right thing and go into the season with stephen pearce playing every day, hes not exactly getting any younger. and, this is totally wishcasting, but if they could find a way to nab brandon wood to play short i would be a happy guy. i dont see anything like that actually happening tho. i also would really like to see what nate mcclouth could do with 500 at bats. he really intrigues me. dont lead him off though, that is a mistake. he should bat 7-8.
cant wait for the needs and luxuries on the pirates. those are always a really fun read.
Posted by: anthoneytheghost | October 24, 2007 at 11:09 PM
Isn't Ramon Hernandez the leading candidate to be dealt?
How many teams are looking for a #1 catcher? And Ramon's deal isn't a backbreaker. With Weiters on the way, that a place to cash in.
Posted by: PrivatePyle | October 26, 2007 at 10:58 AM