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« Needs and Luxuries: San Diego Padres | Main | Odds and Ends: Hunter, A-Rod, Bedard »
Should Cards Pursue A.J. Burnett?
Viva El Birdos has a well thought-out discussion of the prospect of the Cardinals trading Chris Duncan for A.J. Burnett. I have a few thoughts to add.
In my opinion Burnett effectively has a one-year deal, only worse. That's because he has the ability to opt out after the 2008 season. So one of two things will happen:
1. Burnett is healthy enough to pitch 170+ innings, opts out, and secures a four-year deal somewhere.
2. Burnett is not healthy enough to pitch 150 innings and chooses to accept the $24MM owed to him over the 2009-10 time period (I consider 150-170 innings a gray area). If a team trades for Burnett, endures an injury-plagued '08, and is then saddled with further burden, that's worse than a straight-up one-year commitment like Jon Garland's.
My other thought is that Duncan is not a fit for the Jays. They're locked in with Lyle Overbay at first and Frank Thomas at DH. Between Adam Lind, Travis Snider, and Alex Rios, the outfield corners are covered. The Jays' biggest need is a shortstop, also a need of the Cardinals. I suppose Duncan could be part of a three-way deal.
A takeaway, as noted at VEB, is that Burnett may well be the one available pitcher with #1 potential not named Johan Santana. Another good point of theirs - he's probably worth $12 mil as a 165 inning pitcher.
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It's actually not a bad idea. LF is a real gray area, and Duncan has service time, even though pitching is harder to come by. However that's if you think Lind's a bust, and he may be just as good as Duncan.
What about ROlen? RIcciardi traded for Glaus when he had Koskie. But I don't see Glaus being moved for pennies, which would then have to be the case. A 3 team deal could happen then.
Posted by: Guitar Hero | October 28, 2007 at 02:38 AM
Lind isn't a bust. Not yet anyway. They have another marginal defending but impact hitter in Travis Snider a couple years behind Lind anyway.
Thomas' option will likely vest for 2009 and Overbay is "locked up" until 2010.
I haven't read Larry's post yet, but I can't really see where he's coming from here. Plus, it's a Burnett rental unless he's terrible or gets injured. Then you get to keep him. Yay.
Posted by: plh903 | October 28, 2007 at 03:04 AM
why would the jays deal Burnett anyway? Only way that would happen is if the jays are out of it around the trade deadline and Burnetts having a solid year. Then of coarse you trade him because if he's preforming like he should and injury free then of coarse he's gonna opt out.
The Jays consider themselves contenders, I hardly think trading your #2 starter helps get a pennant. Also no chance its for Duncan it just doesn't make sense.
Posted by: Dev0 | October 28, 2007 at 04:49 AM
There were rumors of a rift with Riccardi or something and him being dealt. I'm sure you can find them on this blog.
I guess it wasn't Larry who wrote that.
Posted by: plh903 | October 28, 2007 at 04:58 AM
JP called out AJ sort of or at the very least said he was more scared of hurting it then it actually being hurt. Which I somehow suspect is true I think his shoulder has got into his head alittle so everytime he feels something tweak or whatever he's worried that it might fall off or whatever.
Posted by: Dev0 | October 28, 2007 at 05:10 AM
Also if you deal Burnett you don't really have anyone to replace him. The Jays had one of the best staffs in the AL last year and trading Aj right now would be a bad sell low move anyway.
Posted by: Dev0 | October 28, 2007 at 05:13 AM
I am obviously biased (see nickname) but I believe the jays have an advantage on the bargaining front when it comes to pitching. Coming from last year where the jays only had 3 definate starting pitchers they are now about 9 guys deep (Halladay, Burnett, Chacin, McGowan, Marcum, Towers, Litsch, Jansen and Wolfe)
I would say given the weak free agent pitching market and the inconsistency A.J. provides, trade him for some promising prospects or another piece to the puzzle and move on!
Has there been any rumors of Burnett + extra's to Balitimore for Bedard?
Posted by: BJays Fan! | October 28, 2007 at 10:58 AM
I don't think the Jays would do that trade. As much as Ricciardi doesn't seem to like Burnett (criticized his ability to play through pain, made comments indicating he was interested in cutting ties with Burnett), he can't deny that Burnett likes pitching for the Jays and he pitches well for them... When healthy. However, if he pitches well enough to have trade value (if he's healthy, he will), and the Jays are out of the race, Burnett will probably be dealt at the deadline.
Until then, I don't think it's a good move. The Jays are actually looking like contenders. This year they had a contender's offense (on paper, anyway) but initially a sketchy rotation that worked itself out. Burnett is a key piece of that worked out rotation.
Finally... The Jays don't need Duncan. There's enough guys jockeying for position in the OF. Stairs, Johnson, and Lind all have a shot in left. In 2 or 3 years, Snider will be ready (though I'm seeing him more as a 1B/DH prospect than a LF). Also, I'm not at all prepared to give up on Lind. The kid has hit at every other level, and hit well. This year was an off year for him in both the majors and minors, that's for sure. But the kid has the potential to hit for both average and power, and he has shown it in spurts. If he could lay off the high heat, the Jays wouldn't have to worry about the Stairs/Lind/Johnson dilemma. It would be a no-brainer.
Posted by: Lindsay | October 28, 2007 at 11:12 AM
I think Atlanta should be mentioned as well. If Toronto needs a SS, Renteria for AJ could work.
Posted by: Suwanee | October 28, 2007 at 11:54 AM
I knew someone would mention it, and there are a lot reasons why that could be a good trade (renteria for burnett.) However, the braves are not going to trade for a pitcher who is injury prone and could cost 10 mill or more per over the next 3 seasons, no matter how good he is, we already have gone through that worse case scenerio (Mike Hampton).
Posted by: bravesbeast | October 28, 2007 at 12:02 PM
If his arm checks out, Burnett is going to be a steal for some team. Arizona makes a ton of sense given his GB rate and they have plenty of position players/prospects to offer.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | October 28, 2007 at 05:19 PM
Burnett isn't going anywhere unless the Jays are out of it by the deadline.
Posted by: 92-93 | October 28, 2007 at 07:19 PM
I'm not keen on the idea of trading Burnett but the only player on the Cards that really makes sense is Yadier Molina. What is his value compared to Duncan's Tim?
Posted by: Grant77 | October 28, 2007 at 08:52 PM
There is no way that Yadi is traded.
Posted by: zaedbo | October 28, 2007 at 09:34 PM
ok, so here is an idea, a crazy one maybe, but just an idea, if the braves do sign glavine, and they really can not find a suitable deal for renteria somewhere, why not consider this
St. Louis: Renteria and Matt Diaz or Brandon Jones
Braves: Tyler Johnson, Anthony Reyes, Chris Duncan
The Cards get their shortstop, plus a great hitter in diaz who can play a respectable leftfield.
The braves get a reliable lefty reliver, a young pitcher for some depth should a veteran go down, and duncan would be our primary leftfielder, and in the likely scenerio that we lose Texiera, would then be our first baseman of the future.
Now this is just an idea, an in reality i give this a .5% chance of happening, cause the only way the cards trade duncan is for pitching, and likewise with the braves in terms of renteria. Furthermore, I think the braves fan in me made me formulate this trade because we can feel three needs in one trade, and that rarely ever happens, but hey, why not add just one more possibility.
Posted by: bravesbeast | October 28, 2007 at 09:37 PM
"There is no way that Yadi is traded."
Does he really have that much more value than Duncan? I assumed Duncan would have more value. The Cards have to give a player the Jays need if they want Burnett.
Posted by: Grant77 | October 28, 2007 at 09:59 PM
I don't get why Larry over at VEB always wants to see the Cards move Duncan? Regardless of the pitching situation, I can't see the Cards removing their 2nd best hitter from an already iffy lineup. Especially when it would cost about 5-8 million more to replace his production. I just don't see it happening.
Posted by: ozziethesaint | October 29, 2007 at 12:21 AM
i called this rumor like three days ago in the thread where we were talknig beckett/lugo vs. burnett/hanley. (sorry, i had to say it.)
i see anthony reyes going the other way. obviously more, but start at reyes.
Posted by: anthoneytheghost | October 29, 2007 at 12:25 AM
Interesting someone mentioned Arizona, how about AJ For O-Dog and a prospect.
Posted by: Dev0 | October 29, 2007 at 01:35 AM
I am a Jays fan as you can tell by my screen name. This is what I have to say WHY THE HELL WOULD THEY TRADE BURNETT? Yes Riccardi has shown signs of dislike in Burnett but lets face the facts, when healthy he has great stuff. He was amazing after he returned from the DL and I think the Jays will want to keep their rotation the way it is. Also the Jays are probably not going to look for a SS because they signed McDonald to a multi year deal. If Riccardi deals Burnett I'm sure the fans are going to want his butt out the door.
Posted by: Jays Believer 92,93 | October 29, 2007 at 03:48 PM
DevO I really don't see AJ for O-Dog and a prospect because we have Aaron Hill.
Posted by: Jays Believer 92,93 | October 29, 2007 at 03:49 PM